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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #250 on: August 29, 2017, 01:46:34 PM »
At least the Euro continues to take the system farther east, which seems supported in the very short term by the overnight movement.  Would give Houston a bit of a break by shifting heaviest totals East.

Addicks is at 107.9 as of last report.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #251 on: August 29, 2017, 01:49:53 PM »
Electric power outages have started to increase in Louisiana and New Orleans:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/#Aug-29-1200
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Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #252 on: August 29, 2017, 01:52:01 PM »
Believe it or not, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes apparently don't hit the U.S. as often today as they did 100 to 200 years or so ago.

But is this a potential effect of climate change? More blocking and more stalling so hurricanes don't travel as far makes crossing a coast less likely. So some benefit to this climate change reducing number of landfalls but also an increased chance of most severe effects of stalling having just crossed a coast?

Similarly, similar numbers of hurricanes but an increase in proportion of the most powerful hurricanes could also be competing effects: Increase in sea surface temperatures encourages tropical storm formation and strengthening but increased shear reducing chances of tropical storms forming.

With such competing effects potentially going on, how do you arrive at a fair assessment of the role climate change has played?

Having said this, generally I agree with you that it is a bad idea to overstate the case when there is inadequate data to fully support such a position.

Very difficult to attribute climate changes to this particular storm.  Had Harvey encountered a low pressure system upon landfall, it would have been swiftly carried away.  Perhaps the only attribute that can linked is the very warm gulf temperatures.  This tends to increase the potential for tropical formation. 

I agree that we should not overstate these cases.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #253 on: August 29, 2017, 02:02:23 PM »
In a follow up this wk, @houstonpress gave an update on the Corps of Engineers repair project, halted b/c of Harvey: 

How Are Addicks and Barker Reservoirs Handling Hurricane Harvey?
http://www.houstonpress.com/news/how-addicks-and-barker-reservoirs-are-handling-tropical-storm-harvey-9740819

https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902480759948115968
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Sigmetnow

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People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #255 on: August 29, 2017, 02:07:13 PM »
Too far out to be concerned with specifics, but the Euro suggest a major hurricane near Hispaniola and approaching the US East Coast second week of September.


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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #256 on: August 29, 2017, 02:51:36 PM »
Well, the good news regarding the dams is that the rainfall rates on the far western edge of Houston have come down a lot since yesterday.

The bad news is that a 210 VIL cell near Galveston, in direct association with the CoC, is going to try to push onto the mainland in a few hours. This won't make it to western Houston either, but no matter who it hits its going to not make matters any better.

Beaumont looks to have taken it very hard over night from rains, and the rains continue very hard there.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #257 on: August 29, 2017, 03:03:45 PM »
Important update: Addicks Reservoir in Houston just passed 108 ft, and is now overtopping.
My thread from earlier: https://mobile.twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/902460811020443649

https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/902509581338681344
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crandles

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #258 on: August 29, 2017, 03:08:30 PM »
Perhaps the only attribute that can linked is the very warm gulf temperatures.  This tends to increase the potential for tropical formation. 

I agree that we should not overstate these cases.

I think sea level rise is a very solid contributing factor. Air containing more moisture due to higher air temperature is also pretty solid.

Perhaps we should also count subsidence due to oil extraction as fairly solid? Obviously this relates to ff a source of CC rather than climate change itself.

I think these are a lot more solid than higher gulf water temperature leading to more hurricanes because the number of hurricanes have not risen much and competing effects, if any, are difficult to verify/attribute.

pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #259 on: August 29, 2017, 03:17:59 PM »
It unfortunately appears that heavy banding to the NE is going to wrap down over Houston metro within a few hours, and that is supported by the latest HRRR.

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #260 on: August 29, 2017, 03:32:10 PM »
My understanding is that total number of hurricanes is decreasing, but the total number of strong hurricanes is increasing. That is double bad. Low strength storms make up a significant portion of the normal expected rainfall. High strength hurricanes are very destructive as we can clearly see.

People saying this has nothing to do with global warming are fighting hard to keep their head under the sand. Too bad the climate DGAF. These types of event will only increase in frequency and intensity regardless of how deep they bury their heads.
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wili

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #261 on: August 29, 2017, 03:32:54 PM »
sig, not overtopping the top of the dam, but yeah, they are in uncontroled spill now down the spill way...not good.
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Paddy

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #262 on: August 29, 2017, 03:39:52 PM »
Just throwing this out there, but there's an article here on ways to help with the hurricane response: http://abc7.com/weather/how-to-help-the-victims-of-hurricane-harvey/2348094/

WadeDanielSmith

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #263 on: August 29, 2017, 03:51:01 PM »
The Neutral ENSO years over the next several decades are going to get noticeably worse with each decade.

the only thing that might slow this process down a tiny bit is the fact the Sun is forecast to enter a "Maunder Minimum" in about 30 or 40 years, based on Super Computer modeling. It's supposed to lower the solar flux at the Earth by about a half-watt per meter squared.

Unfortunately, we're producing CO2 and Methane* faster than ever now, and by the time this Maunder Minimum happens, assuming it happens at all, the forcing from AGW is going to increase by a few more tenths of a watt...which may offset half the entire Maunder Minimum...

*I think the Kyoto Protocols slowed down Methane production as a side effect in 1998, but the ESRL Methane curves shows that man-made Methane production must have accelerated again around 2007, and hasn't stopped accelerating. Now Methane mostly heats the atmosphere "Top-Down" due to it being one of the least dense gases in nature, as 90% of Methane occupies the top 10% of a container of air at Standard Temperature and Pressure. So this effects Hurricanes a bit differently than CO2 induced Global Warming, but darn...

CO2 heats the atmosphere "Bottom Up".

Harvey rains definitely AGW enhanced. It'll be interesting to see what the models pick out in post-season analysis.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2017, 03:59:54 PM by WadeDanielSmith »

A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #264 on: August 29, 2017, 04:00:52 PM »
Quote
Will Addicks and Barker Reservoirs overtop at their flanks, erode, and fail?
Right, all of this was thoroughly covered yesterday -- ground subsidence, exploding impermeable surface, highway water barriers, packed earth construction of the 1940's dams, air gaps under the outflow culverts -- along with Monday's excellent Cat6 feature story by Dr J Masters.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/harvey-moves-back-over-water-historic-rainfall-will-continue

He writes that the 8000 cfs releases from the two dams, while 2x what's permitted and massive enough to exacerbate Buffalo Bayou flooding downstream, is slower than expected inflows to the two watersheds, meaning neighborhoods above the reservoirs will still flood, just somewhat less.

I'm skeptical that will persist for long because of the fairly small size of these watersheds (map below). However it takes weeks to make a dent in water levels in these reservoirs once they are filled to the brim. Here 8,000 cubic feet per second drains 15,868 acre-feet per day or 3.9% of the two full reservoirs (25 days to empty). The inflow of 30,000 cfs adds 59,504 acre-feet per day of which 22,000 cfs over culverted outflow amounts to a 43,636 acre-feet excess.

According to wikipedia, Addicks is a rolled earthen dam 11.7 miles long that's only 123' above 1929 sea level despite the distance to Galveston Bay. The maximum storage capacity of the reservoir is 201,000 acre feet but -- because releases were able to buffer inflows last time -- record storage only hit 123,100 acre-feet on 4/24/2016. The 13.8 mile long rolled earth Barker has 209,000 acre-feet of storage capacity. It's lower, at 112.5' above sea level.

We use acre-feet in the US because land was historically surveyed in acres, and this measure gives water depth conveniently. Houston has 401,280 acres, Harris County 1,137,280 acres. So failure of both reservoirs is enough to cover all of Houston by an extra foot.

However, water from failed reservoirs would all flow down into the Buffalo Bayou watershed which is 65,280 acres, for which reservoir volume pencils out to 6.3' rise in coverage if equilibrated. Buffalo Bayou does drain to the sea, but very slowly because of aforementioned shallow gradient: the Buffalo Bayou canoe trail from Addicks to Allen's Landing (at Commerce/Main downtown) is 26 miles. That gives a gradient (rise over run) of 0.0009.

The key numbers to watch this morning (at the links I provided yesterday) are 102.65' for Addicks and 95.24' for Barker because these provide flood boundaries for the April 2016 event (these depend somewhat on the event-specific rainfall accumulation rate and distribution profiles).

By Monday morning at 2:15 pm EDT, Addicks had topped the Tax Day event by a full foot and Barker was over by 2.8'.

Tuesday, Addicks began overtopping its dam an hour ago and Barker will follow shortly (108' and 104' respectively). Inflow is said to be 30,000 cfs whereas outflow is more than maxxed out at 8,000 which will leave 22,000 cfs flowing over the far ends of the dams, which they were never built to handle. The floodgates cannot handle take another 22,000 cfs, they are already over design at 8,000. Either way, this is an out of control situation.

Barker Reservoir is 34 feet above the bottom of Buffalo Bayou’s streambed and the gate outlets; Addicks is 40.5 feet above the bottom of the outlets. Those numbers give the depths at full pool.

While overflow provides an upper bound to upstream neighborhood upper flooding, it could give rise to an erosive situation like the near-miss at the Oroville dam in California. That not only destroyed the massive concrete spillway but also severely eroded earthen margins.

Holthaus is incorrect in a sense in saying upstream houses are in the 500-year floodplain; they are not (map repeated below). While Harris County indeed takes careful note of high water boundaries and maps each flooded home in each storm, the floodplain maps are not regularly redrawn from that data because they negatively impact land values for developers. (Houston has been growing by 30,000 people per year.)

Here is a neighbor's account of why the Houston Medical Center flooded last time around: http://bigjollypolitics.com/stephen-costello-new-flood-czar/

Here is a link that will open a nice satellite map of Houston and the two reservoirs:

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.8125045,-95.6550079,35976m/data=!3m1!1e3

« Last Edit: August 29, 2017, 07:23:40 PM by A-Team »

wili

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #265 on: August 29, 2017, 04:48:41 PM »
per cnn...levees now breached south of Houston

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/29/us/texas-harvey-latest/

The levee at Columbia Lakes in Brazoria County have been breached. Brazoria County is just south of Houston.

The county's official Twitter account sent this message: "GET OUT NOW!!"
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

WadeDanielSmith

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #266 on: August 29, 2017, 04:58:36 PM »
Apparently, some areas now have official rainfall totals over 50 inches. Consistent with the Radar readings, it just keeps coming.

I guess there is just so much rain over so much area that even these radically advanced radars aren't intended to measure it this way, so even this generation of radars slightly over-estimates the heaviest areas; Thankfully, we probably have NOT actually seen 80 inches of rain on land anywhere, but still, real-world measurements now above 50 inches in some locations.

I'll check some maps and see if I can find exactly where those gauges are, but this was just reported on Dr. Jeff Masters' site.

wili

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #267 on: August 29, 2017, 05:05:23 PM »
Quote
Houston police chief 'worried about how many bodies we're going to find'

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/08/houston_how_many_bodies_police.html#incart_river_home
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #268 on: August 29, 2017, 05:11:10 PM »
That levee breach may or may not affect homes in Columbia Lakes, map below, though roads may be inundated for a long time preventing return. As in Houston, homes are by design and regulation a couple of feet above street level which in the past has been enough to be effective.

It's not clear whether 'breach' means the Brazos River levee failed at a weak spot (standard usage) potentially allowing the entire river to pour through or just overflowed a levee in places which maintained however their structural integrity.

http://thefacts.com/article_2efdd457-b02c-5243-b714-cdf254ab4cca.html residents not leaving: Aug 27th

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.3112632,-95.5616295,160126m/data=!3m1!1e3
« Last Edit: August 29, 2017, 05:36:57 PM by A-Team »

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #269 on: August 29, 2017, 05:11:29 PM »
Meanwhile over on the other side of the Atlantic:
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A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #270 on: August 29, 2017, 05:43:01 PM »
The Corps of Engineers, despite 70 years of managing this facility, does not know which way the water will exit Addicks, even though ultra-high precision lidar and interferometric SAR digital elevation maps are easily found online with a basic journal search. (I had already done this two days ago anticipating someone somewhere had done it; the methodology is nearly identical to Greenland glacier research.)

The water will be flowing down the very slight gradient, eventually reaching Buffalo Bayou (rather than Cypress Creek or White Oak Bayou). However flow will back up too, approximately onto higher contour lines.

A disturbing lower White Oak Bayou master plan for flood reduction was taken offline after two days. It may still be around at the Wayback internet archive however. Censorship contributes very little to managing flood risk or its public understanding.

The reason the Corps does not study detailed failure scenarios in advance is because it generates alarming paperwork that might be exposed by FOIA requests (federal freedom of information act). When the Houston Sierra Club sued in 2011 over the Grand Parkway freeway up-watershed from the reservoirs (which are wholly on federal land), they uncovered a re-classification of the dams to Level 1, the top hazard level, which had not been publicly announced.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2002JB001848/full
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-014-1067-x
https://uh-ir.tdl.org/uh-ir/bitstream/handle/10657/1006/KARACAY-THESIS-2013.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

The Barker gauge flooded on Monday evening and no longer works; USGS staff cannot reach the site to repair it. A high-water police boat has been deployed to get them there. I have not been able to find design details for the gauge which may be have shorted-out electrical components (rather than being an old-fashioned pole with water levels painted on it).

Again, to control the narrative, personal drone flights have been forbidden. There can be valid reasons for that, such as collisions with helicopters, but we're not seeing videos from those either, even though they're transmitted in readily uploadable form. There is a lot of confusion right now over emergency spillways vs normal outflow culverts vs end runs around the dam edges that some better graphics could help with.

Quote
Jeff Lindner, with the Harris County Flood Control District, said Tuesday that he's certain that more homes and streets will flood as a result [of reservoir releases]. Lindner says the county is trying to determine where the water will go, specifically from the north end of the Addicks reservoir.

He says some homes will be inundated "for up to a month."

The flood gauge at the Barker reservoir is overwhelmed and disabled and officials are worried the Addicks gauge also will fail. ...

The surpassing capacity on the Addicks Reservoir comes after controlled releases were done on this water reserve and the Barker Reservoir. Addicks rose to 108 feet, causing water to spill out 34 feet out onto non-government land, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.

Officials said the neighborhoods primarily affected by the uncontrolled release are Twin Lakes, Eldridge Park, Lakes on Eldridge, Lakes on Eldridge North, Independence Farms, Tanner Heights and Heritage Business Park.

Quote
Water levels in the Addicks reservoir have reached 108ft, said Jeff Lindner, a Harris County flood control district meteorologist. He warned that neighbourhoods in the spillway zone would begin to see street and possibly structural flooding.

“We have never faced this before. We have uncertainty in how the water is going to react as it moves out of the spillway and into the surrounding area,” Lindner told a news conference on Tuesday. “We are trying to wrap our heads around what this water will do.”

Linder named six subdivisions that appear most at imminent risk and told residents: “If you want to leave, now is the time to leave. The reason being, once the water comes into the street you’re not going to be able to leave.” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/29/houston-dam-hurricane-harvey-overspill-floods

Some undated spillway videos:

https://www.click2houston.com/news/officials-monitor-forecast-as-addicksbarker-reservoirs-continue-to-release-water-to-buffalo-bayou
« Last Edit: August 29, 2017, 07:29:31 PM by A-Team »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #271 on: August 29, 2017, 06:52:21 PM »
"Still a named storm over 72 hours after landfall, Harvey is the longest a Texas landfalling hurricane has remained a named storm after landfall on record, according to Colorado State University tropical scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach."

It's Not Over: Tropical Storm Harvey Rainfall Sets Preliminary All-Time Lower 48 States Record, Still Soaking Texas, Louisiana
https://www.wunderground.com/news/tropical-storm-harvey-forecast-texas-louisiana-arkansas
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #272 on: August 29, 2017, 07:27:57 PM »
6-7 day QPF indicates additional tropical moisture affecting the Gulf coast next week.

GFS model for Sept. 5 brings it ashore.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #273 on: August 29, 2017, 07:55:58 PM »
There seems to be a universal reluctance on the part of those who presume to govern us to admit the fragility of the infrastructure on which modern life depends. A recent post on this thread showed the work by the USGS on subsidence in Houston over the last 40 years mostly due to over extraction of groundwater with consequent compaction of bedrock with the inevitable increased vulnerability to flooding.

Perhaps politicians and the senior management of our institutions who hold their positions through patronage  find it easier to placate us masses with bread and circuses rather than allocating resources to maintain necessary infrastructure.

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Rippleillusion

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #274 on: August 29, 2017, 08:06:15 PM »
I've heard many people opine that humanity won't wake up until a real disaster hits a major city. I disagree with them personally, because I think that has happened multiple times already with no response. but for sake of argument I would say that if this doesn't do it, nothing will.

pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #275 on: August 29, 2017, 08:48:16 PM »
The 12z Euro suggest a major hurricane moving towards Puerto Rico, and a new tropical system developing and then landfalling in LA by next Wednesday.  The Gulf system would likely give rain to already inundated areas, but it's too far out for specifics.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #276 on: August 29, 2017, 08:54:25 PM »
I've heard many people opine that humanity won't wake up until a real disaster hits a major city. I disagree with them personally, because I think that has happened multiple times already with no response. but for sake of argument I would say that if this doesn't do it, nothing will.

It took years to accomplish, but in 2015, President Obama signed a regulation that "required public infrastructure projects that received taxpayer dollars to do more planning for floods, including elevating their structures to avoid future water damage and alleviate the burden on taxpayers."

Trump repealed it two weeks ago.

Trump rolled back federal standards to flood-proof infrastructure projects a few weeks before Harvey hit
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/29/16214558/trump-federal-standards-infrastructure-projects
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #277 on: August 29, 2017, 08:59:10 PM »
End of the 12z Euro for next Friday.  That is a cat 3 or 4 with more time to strengthen.  Again, too far out in time, but something to watch.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #278 on: August 29, 2017, 09:03:23 PM »
Finally, a ~straight track outta here!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #279 on: August 29, 2017, 09:06:53 PM »
#Harvey now officially the most extreme rain event in US history--1 weather station received more than 49" (so far)

Harvey marks the most extreme rain event in U.S. history
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/29/harvey-marks-the-most-extreme-rain-event-in-u-s-history/

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/902588901105307648
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Rippleillusion

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #280 on: August 29, 2017, 09:08:06 PM »
I've heard many people opine that humanity won't wake up until a real disaster hits a major city. I disagree with them personally, because I think that has happened multiple times already with no response. but for sake of argument I would say that if this doesn't do it, nothing will.

It took years to accomplish, but in 2015, President Obama signed a regulation that "required public infrastructure projects that received taxpayer dollars to do more planning for floods, including elevating their structures to avoid future water damage and alleviate the burden on taxpayers."

Trump repealed it two weeks ago.

Trump rolled back federal standards to flood-proof infrastructure projects a few weeks before Harvey hit
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/29/16214558/trump-federal-standards-infrastructure-projects

I just don't even know what to say anymore.

Daniel B.

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #281 on: August 29, 2017, 09:46:59 PM »
I've heard many people opine that humanity won't wake up until a real disaster hits a major city. I disagree with them personally, because I think that has happened multiple times already with no response. but for sake of argument I would say that if this doesn't do it, nothing will.

It took years to accomplish, but in 2015, President Obama signed a regulation that "required public infrastructure projects that received taxpayer dollars to do more planning for floods, including elevating their structures to avoid future water damage and alleviate the burden on taxpayers."

Trump repealed it two weeks ago.

Trump rolled back federal standards to flood-proof infrastructure projects a few weeks before Harvey hit
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/29/16214558/trump-federal-standards-infrastructure-projects

I just don't even know what to say anymore.

Not that it would have made any difference.

Jim Pettit

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #282 on: August 29, 2017, 09:56:40 PM »
It took years to accomplish, but in 2015, President Obama signed a regulation that "required public infrastructure projects that received taxpayer dollars to do more planning for floods, including elevating their structures to avoid future water damage and alleviate the burden on taxpayers."

Trump repealed it two weeks ago.

Trump rolled back federal standards to flood-proof infrastructure projects a few weeks before Harvey hit
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/29/16214558/trump-federal-standards-infrastructure-projects

Obama was for it, so Trump and the GOP are against it. Doesn't matter how effective or cost efficient is the program or policy; if BHO started it, Donald "Look At The Size Of Those Crowds!" Trump promises to end it.

A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #283 on: August 29, 2017, 10:12:25 PM »
Since it wasn't happening with either the press or flood control officials, I used the little-known (?) Google Maps to find interactive imagery of the flood control structures necessary to understand the overtopping of the dam. These are the gates, the conduits, the USGS gauging towers, and the emergency spillways.

The first thing I learned is that the dams have no emergency spillways in the civil engineering sense. The earth berms are topped with paved roads in places and with decaying concrete aprons elsewhere.

The top surface of these very long dams are not level but taper lower up-reservoir (relative to sea level). This is where the water will spill over into the neighborhoods such as Tanner in a flood emergency. It is only in this sense that there are 'emergency spillways'.

The gates and conduits (rectangular concrete culverts) are very limited in their discharge capacity. This makes sense as higher discharges exacerbate flooding in downtown Houston, the opposite of the Corps's mission.

Even if extra discharge capacity did exist, the Corps would be extremely reluctant to push too hard on it because of potential cavitation or damage to the gates, knowing it would not help upstream neighborhoods that much while making things even worse downtown.

The USGS gauging stations are conventional hollow towers. Addicks uses lidar/radar to determine water height in sensor 2109. They were likely never envisioned to be overtopped and may have taken in far too much silt or woody debris (which piles up at the base as the reservoir dries out). Alternatively, the chicken wire system protecting the wires going in may have been knocked aside or floated off by rising water.

I'm sympathetic to the Corps here because they have dealt with non-stop political interference, delays in funding of essential modernizations, unending home and road construction on the very edges of the reservoirs in areas certain to flood every time the reservoirs get serious use, and all the additional impervious surface that goes with that new construction that increase both runoff volume and rate of reservoir filling. The prairies are long gone that used to take a big hit on adsorbing rainfall.

Where did the City Fathers think this was going? I suppose 'après moi, le déluge'.  (Ironically, the motto of the RAF 617th which carried out "Dambuster" raids on the Ruhr in May 1943.)
« Last Edit: August 29, 2017, 11:48:37 PM by A-Team »

CraigsIsland

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #284 on: August 29, 2017, 10:20:27 PM »
jeez. As a Californian who monitored the Lake Oroville spillway failure and near disaster of its emergency spillway, this is extremely risky stuff here. If one of the spillways or main dam breaks, that's a lot of water to be dispersed in those neighborhoods!

Really bad timing for Texas and NOLA (repairing of pump system).

These storms are going to cost the US treasury quite a bit of tax money. :(.

Also, hopefully people can pool together resources to help each other out and get life moving again.

Rippleillusion

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #285 on: August 29, 2017, 11:04:43 PM »
Trump:

"Governor, again, thank you very much," Trump said. "We won't say congratulations. We don't want to do that. We don't want to congratulate. We'll congratulate each other when it's all finished."

What...why....how...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #286 on: August 29, 2017, 11:05:03 PM »
“It’s not like the government comes in with big buckets of cash and just hands it out.  People who don't have insurance may have to abandon their homes.”

Where Harvey is hitting hardest, 80 percent lack flood insurance
Quote
Hurricane Harvey struck Southeast Texas as a Category 4 storm Aug. 25. Texans now face catastrophic flooding, which is expected to worsen.

The vast majority of homeowners in the area devastated by Hurricane Harvey lack flood insurance, leaving many who escaped the storm with little financial help to rebuild their homes and lives.

“I wish I had flood insurance now,” lamented Leroy Moore, a 58-year-old whose home in northeast Houston filled with water. He cancelled his flood policy when it grew too expensive. He and his wife were rescued from the rising waters on Sunday by National Guard troops and are now sleeping in a church. “When it's a choice to make between things and life, sometimes you've just got to let the things go and hang on to life.”

Regular home insurance covers wind damage, but not flooding. Homeowners have to purchase separate flood insurance policies from the government-run National Flood Insurance Program, which will end in late September unless Congress renews it. In Texas, the average cost for a NFIP plan is $500 a year, but it can rise to more than $2,000 for homes inside a floodplain.

Only 17 percent of homeowners in the eight counties most directly affected by Harvey flood insurance policies, according to a Washington Post analysis of Federal Emergency Management Agency data. When disaster hits, the policies cover up to $250,000 in rebuilding costs and $100,000 to replace personal stuff like TVs and furniture.

Everyone else who loses their home to flooding will be dependent on private charity and government aid, especially grants from Federal Emergency Management Agency.

But FEMA's help is a poor substitute for flood insurance: The grants, intended to help residents rebuild homes and cover hotel stays until permanent housing is available, are capped at $33,300. Most receive significantly less. Funds will be even tighter if Congress doesn't provide additional emergency funding for Texas soon. ...
Quote
Part of the problem is the vast majority of people hit by Harvey weren't even in a high-risk flood zone, says Chuck Watson, founder of Enki Holdings, which has estimated storm damages for years. Harvey is an unusual storm because it's triggering so much additional flooding as levees, dams and reservoirs overflow. “It's blowing up our usual models,” Watson says.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/29/where-harvey-is-hitting-hardest-four-out-of-five-homeowners-lack-flood-insurance/
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wili

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #287 on: August 29, 2017, 11:06:04 PM »
A-Team just wrote: "The first thing I learned is that the dams have no emergency spillways in the civil engineering sense. The earth berms are topped with paved roads in places and with decaying concrete aprons elsewhere. "

This just struck me too. Unbelievable.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #288 on: August 29, 2017, 11:30:48 PM »
Looking here https://twitter.com/joshuabrown18, some more information on Addicks:
Quote
100 cfs spilling over the sides right now (elevation 108.73)
As it climbs to 109.5, there will be 4500 CFS spilling over the sides and spillway.
Quote
109.5 feet is the point at which more water will be coming over the sides than through the controlled dam. 4500cfs
Quote
110.4 is forecasted top for  Addicks
109.5 is when 4500cfs will pour out the side,
Going a foot higher than that.



A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #289 on: August 29, 2017, 11:32:03 PM »
Another good update from WU's Bob Hensen. The weather is moving on tomorrow and so will the attention deficit disorder media. The first shows a before-and-after at the indicated site near Clay Road using google map tilt for the before.

This may incorrectly attribute to spill-over what is merely the reservoir backing up. Some 3,300 homes in the area will be similarly affected for several weeks to come. The second provides a locational overview.

Quote
As of noon, the homes that may experience flooding at Addicks is estimated at 2,500 with 670 more above Barker. Homes near Addicks Reservoir could see anywhere from 3.5 to 5 feet of water and 3 to 4 feet near Barker, officials say.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/harvey-houston-most-extreme-rains-ever-major-us-city

http://www.khou.com/weather/hurricanes/hurricane-harvey/controlled-release-of-barker-addicks-reservoirs-to-impact-thousands/468348109
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 03:07:01 AM by A-Team »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #290 on: August 29, 2017, 11:46:48 PM »
From The Weather Channel:  the red line outlines the area Addicks Reservoir was designed to fill.  Yes, they built neighborhoods within that area!  And now that the reservoir is overflowing, even more neighborhoods are being flooded.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #291 on: August 29, 2017, 11:49:55 PM »
Living on your roof.  #Harvey.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #292 on: August 30, 2017, 12:04:37 AM »
NWS Houston:  CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGES: Mandatory evacuations issued for the following neighborhoods: #houwx #glswx #bcswx #txwx
https://twitter.com/nwshouston/status/902643335109763074

If you wait, you may not be able to get out after 11pm.

This is north of Houston.

"As of Sunday August 27, stormwater levels are predicted to rise outside of government-owned land at the Addicks Reservoir in the early hours of Monday, August 28. Stormwater levels are predicted to rise outside of government-owned land at the Barker Reservoir on or about Wednesday, August 30. "

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A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #293 on: August 30, 2017, 12:16:38 AM »
The issue right now is whether the Addicks berm will shortly fail. Like at Oroville, water gets under the partial concrete cap they're calling a spillway and takes away the fine dry soils, collapsing it. Or it just makes an end run and rapidly demolishes the berm west to east.

The attached anonymous twitter image analyzes relative berm heights at Addicks. These are consistent with the end run scenario as the sole non-spillway overflow and Corps statements about discharge on the north. However the heights may be lifted off an old document and not reflect substantial subsidence in NW Houston. They are not consistent with elevations shown at Google Earth Pro which is generally quite accurate.

All dams leak to begin with -- and here the pressure at the bottom has just soared from mere air atmospheric to 47.2 psi from the 108.85' loading (this may be a relative elevation to the Bay and need location-dependent offsets to get at true reservoir depth -- see google earth transects next page). An auto tire might be filled to 34 psi in the US.

Whatever historic leakages were before, they will be much higher for months or more likely blow out. The Corps does have piezometers strung all along the many miles of perimeter monitoring internal pressure but these may not be online.

Diana Wray at the Houston Press has been doing an extraordinary job of tracking the issue:

Quote
TUES,AUG 29 2017 11:23 am: Harris County Flood Control is keeping a list of the neighborhoods it is predicting will see water from Addicks and Barker as both controlled and uncontrolled releases continue to move slowly out of the reservoirs, into those surrounding neighborhoods and then into Buffalo Bayou.

Lindner said right now – and that’s a key phrase, because while both Flood Control and the Corps are working furiously to model these conditions and figure out how this is going to play out before it actually happens – they believe water will move toward Sam Houston Tollway, head south to I-10 and eventually into Buffalo Bayou.

About five percent of the water in the bayou will be from the controlled release, 15 percent will come from the uncontrolled release and the rest will come from the runoff and rain downstream of the dams. Buffalo Bayou’s water levels will not be receding anytime soon, and even after Harvey is finally over the controlled releases for the dams will continue for anywhere from one to three months.

While Lindner and the other officials working this currently believe Houston itself will not be much affected by the releases from Addicks and Barker, he admitted they don’t actually know what is specifically going to happen. He pointed out that he can’t think of any other city that has faced this particular problem, with overflowing reservoirs and neighborhoods built right up against the structures.

“At first we thought there wouldn’t be any water in these areas, and then we realized there would. Then we thought the water would only be in the streets, but now we know it may be in the structures as well,” Lindner said. “This is uncharted territory.”
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 03:16:54 PM by A-Team »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #294 on: August 30, 2017, 12:22:04 AM »
Amazing video sent to us @KHOU, freeway concrete barrier broke away on Hwy 59 at San Jacinto Bridge. #HoustonFloods
https://twitter.com/dtgoterakhou/status/902587452040282114

Video at the link.


 New aerial imagery from @NOAA shows nearly complete destruction of homes in #Rockport, Texas from Hurricane #Harvey
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/902636988767068161

Images at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #295 on: August 30, 2017, 01:29:09 AM »
Drone video of downtown Houston flooding at the link:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BYUdV4iB05g/?taken-by=_chase_boogie
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #296 on: August 30, 2017, 03:38:02 AM »
Beaumont, Texas has been under extreme conditions for much of the day.  TS winds and heavy rain, with flooding reported, nighttime rescues suspended.  Population 100,000.

I'm afraid that when search and discovery is complete, from Rockport over through Louisiana, the toll from Harvey is going to be shockingly high for those that assumed everyone fled or was rescued.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #297 on: August 30, 2017, 12:12:45 PM »
Harvey is finally giving Houston some respite, from the rain if not from the power outages:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/#Aug-30-1000

Make sure to check out the rainfall radar animation.
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #298 on: August 30, 2017, 02:13:09 PM »
The imagery coming out of Beaumont/Port Arthur is striking. Water in evacuation shelters and people crowded onto steps and bleachers. Two major population centers in Texas have been devastated, and only 20 miles spared a third (Corpus Christi).  This with all of the flooding across Asia and elsewhere, and one would think the climate conversation would gain more consciousness in America, which it will, but not to the extent it should because of the current administration's stance of denial and hostility to science.

With focus on search and recovery in Texas, the soon to be Irma is projected to become a major hurricane as it traverses the Atlantic.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 02:21:03 PM by pileus »

pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #299 on: August 30, 2017, 02:25:18 PM »
The evacuation shelter image is actually a perfect metaphor for the climate future:  the places you think are safe are not, and the crush of humanity will be increasingly forced to retreat to smaller and smaller viable locations.