Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Hurricane season 2017  (Read 359832 times)

Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #300 on: August 30, 2017, 02:32:49 PM »
I haven't seen this mentioned yet here, but yesterday TS Harvey broke the all-time record for single-storm rainfall anywhere in the contiguous US: 51.88" (131.8 cm) at Cedar Bayou, TX.

I wonder how long that record will last?  With warmer oceans and a warmer atmosphere able to hold more water vapor, extreme precipitation events have already become much more common in the US and this intensification will continue for the foreseeable future.

Cities and states had better wake up and start preparing for more intense floods (and more intense droughts, as well).


logicmanPatrick

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 244
    • View Profile
    • The Chatter Box
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #301 on: August 30, 2017, 02:58:18 PM »
Pileus:
Quote
This with all of the flooding across Asia and elsewhere, and one would think the climate conversation would gain more consciousness in America, which it will, but not to the extent it should because of the current administration's stance of denial and hostility to science.

Conservative groups shrug off link between tropical storm Harvey and climate change

si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #302 on: August 30, 2017, 03:04:54 PM »
NWS gives the specs for the new Continental U.S. rainfall record:
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20380
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #303 on: August 30, 2017, 03:15:53 PM »
Harvey's rainfall is spreading into coastal Louisiana and then the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys, albeit in somewhat less mind-boggling amounts.

So the infrastructure of New Orleans and other coastal regions will be tested. I wonder if hidden away in the records of the Army Corps of Engineers (?) the EPA (?) FEMA (?) and elsewhere are rational fact-based assessments of the resilience or vulnerability of those infrastructures.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2977
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 944
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #304 on: August 30, 2017, 03:21:24 PM »
Meanwhile, back at Lake Addicks (the full pool of the reservoir plus perhaps an equal area backed up to the northwest), Google Earth Pro has a different view on reservoir depth transects across and along the berm, showing the expected 108' level and a 10' drop over the berm but a rather uneven surface for it. The lowest stretches on the berm are where overflow is occurring.

If the skies clear, we may get a Sentinel-2AB or Landsat image today. Only with those or a drone overflight can the real overflow zones be identified, as water seeks its own level very subtly at these very shallow gradients.

Many of the flood photos online are neither geo-located nor time-stamped. It is necessary to catch the name of store fronts and google map search them to find where they were taken. The dramatic photo below shows a Mexican chain franchise,Taqueria Arandas at Clay and Hwy 6 next to a Jack in the Box, which can be unambiguously identified as looking east to the almost entirely submerged golf course in the NW corner of the Addicks reservoir.

Cars are variably submerged up to their windows, indicating a depth of 2-3' or so here. Apparently no panoramic photo was taken, though most smart phones can tile these up easily as a helicopter rotates.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 03:42:45 PM by A-Team »

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #305 on: August 30, 2017, 03:25:18 PM »
Although river flooding will be ongoing for awhile, some of the smaller watersheds are already seeing big improvements #Harvey #houwx #txwx
https://twitter.com/nwshouston/status/902748402819231744
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #306 on: August 30, 2017, 03:41:28 PM »
In its urgency and gravity, the #Beaumont #PortArthur #Orange situation on par w/#Harvey in Houston on Sat night. And it's still raining.
https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/902884414891245568

Horrors beyond horrors in #Beaumont #PortArthur #Orange TX right now- thousands fighting for their lives. http://hurricanehalssb.blogspot.com/2017/08/horrors-beyond-horrors-unfolding-in.html
#Harvey
https://twitter.com/hal_needham/status/902883603801149442

Quote
The worst conditions faced in Harvey unfolded overnight and is still unfolding this morning in the "Golden Triangle" of Beaumont- Port Arthur- Orange.

Harvey made a second landfall near here, and torrential rain has been literally spinning over the same areas for 9-12 hours now. Rainfall rates have reached 4-6 inches an hour at times.
...
I set up Facebook group to connect people and 800+ joined within 2 hours. The messages have been horrific.

Messages like, "EXTREME CRISIS! THIS IS AN OLDER COUPLE! Just spoke to [Name]. Says water up to shoulders. Will try to get on roof of house."

I promise I am not exaggerating when I say at least hundreds, if not thousands, of people are fighting for their lives right now.
...
The scale of this is incomprehensible. It's as if the entire states of Connecticut and Rhode Island are submerged and two or three counties are fighting for their lives.


There's been so much rain overnight in Port Arthur, TX that even the evacuation center flooded.

Hundreds of people evacuated #Harvey to the Bob Bower Civic Center in Port Arthur.
This is what it looks like as water began to rush in.
https://twitter.com/_juanrodriguez_/status/902812719333728256
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #307 on: August 30, 2017, 03:45:03 PM »
Catastrophic flooding now in the Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange region of E Texas -- a population equal to city of New Orleans.
>20" overnight

UPDATE:
Up to 45.72 inches of rain in Beaumont, #Texas, w/ nearly half in the past 24 hours alone. The rain has been unyielding. #Harvey
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/902869409655652357
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 04:30:51 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #308 on: August 30, 2017, 03:46:57 PM »
Irma will officially join in the fun shortly:

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/902876634843406340

Quote
NHC will be initiating advisories at 11 AM AST on Tropical Storm Irma, located west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2977
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 944
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #309 on: August 30, 2017, 04:12:24 PM »
Ouch ... Zillow home prices in the overspill area of Addicks. Even if insured, which 80% are not, that will only provide partial coverage. Then there is the question of mold in a very humid city developing over a month of flooding and who knows how long until contractors can get on it.

Another effort to track elevations along the road on top of the berm. It appears not to exactly follow the high point in the berm, throwing off the elevation profile taken as along the road. At the time of the Google satelite photo, there were ongoing repairs at the main spillway, blue dot.

Quote
Officials reported that the Addicks reservoir's water level rose about a half-foot between noon and 6 p.m. Tuesday, but Corps engineers now think it's maximum level will be 109.1 feet. That is more than a foot lower than previously predicted... The reservoirs have received 32 to 35 inches (81 to 89 centimeters) of rain since Harvey hit last weekend, but Russo says less than an inch (2.5 centimeters) of rain is forecast in the coming week....

Reservoir storage: 178,000 acre feet on 08-29-2017 at 01:30 CDT https://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?site_no=08073000
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 04:40:21 PM by A-Team »

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3511
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 899
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #310 on: August 30, 2017, 04:24:01 PM »
When they say climate change will mostly affect the poor they must be referring to intangibles like well being and life, because dollar wise the ones with the most will lose the most.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #311 on: August 30, 2017, 04:28:14 PM »
???

Sooo, to you, money is the only thing that is 'tangible'??

Following up on A-Teams helpful graphics, Addicks level is now over 109, so more and more of the dam is being overtopped, especially to the north.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 04:36:30 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #312 on: August 30, 2017, 04:32:53 PM »
NWS Corpus Christi:  A storm survey team from our office viewed this devastating damage from #HurricaneHarvey in Holiday Beach, #Texas yesterday #txwx
https://twitter.com/nwscorpus/status/902637165032722432

Video at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #313 on: August 30, 2017, 04:40:15 PM »
As far as I can see, they never actually do show an areal view of the reservoirs, but lots of amazing footage of just how much of this part of texas have basically become an inland sea:

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #314 on: August 30, 2017, 04:44:15 PM »
Radar animation of #Harvey ~5 days long. Amazing and scary to watch this engine churn out all that rain.
https://twitter.com/nwsmorristown/status/902900155271270400

Video at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #315 on: August 30, 2017, 05:24:37 PM »
The current NHC prognosis for Irma:
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #316 on: August 30, 2017, 05:35:14 PM »
This visualization by Vox is pretty stunning:



All the rain that's fallen over Houston so far, in one massive water drop

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/28/16217626/harvey-houston-flood-water-visualized

Seems to be correctly scaled, too.

Edited to replace the massive graphic with a smaller version; full resolution is at the link.

ritter

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 573
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #317 on: August 30, 2017, 05:36:39 PM »
Thanks to all for the information beyond Houston. The media's focus has been so directed at that area I've seen little info on those communities more along the coast, downstream and on the receiving end of all the floodwater. Best to all of those impacted and sincere thanks to all those rendering aid.

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2357
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #318 on: August 30, 2017, 07:22:59 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-30/harvey-shows-how-planetary-winds-are-shifting

Why Harvey Is Stuck Near Texas
Hurricanes gain strength from warmer oceans, but climate change might be causing another problem higher in the sky.

Quote
In March, Mann and several colleagues published a study in the journal Scientific Reports that demonstrates a relationship between extreme events, such as the 2011 Texas drought and 2010 Pakistan flooding, and a rare stationary phase that upper atmospheric currents sometimes go through in the mid-latitudes.

Stefan Rahmstorf, a co-author of that paper and head of Earth Systems Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explained that there may really be several things going on. In general, the jet stream, the high-flying river of air that flows west-to-east, has slowed and gone all wavy in recent summers, with pronounced north-south meanders. That’s one thing that may have helped hold Harvey in place. Researchers have sparred since 2012 over whether Arctic warming, which is occurring at twice the global average, is driving this atmospheric wobble, consequently creating more opportunities for persistent weather farther south.

In a number of extreme cases analyzed by their paper—California drought, Russia’s 2010 heatwave and Pakistan’s related flood—the meandering north-south river of the jet-stream stabilizes for periods of time in some places, creating an insurmountable wavelike band. The researchers looked for some kind of misbehavior in atmospheric circulation after realizing that heat-related effects alone couldn’t explain the extreme nature of some disasters.

James Hansen also discusses this on Democracy Now! today  https://www.democracynow.org/2017/8/30/ex_nasa_scientist_james_hansen_there
Haiku of Futures Passed
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #319 on: August 30, 2017, 08:08:08 PM »
SigMN
Just wanted to send a note of appreciation for your work on this thread. Makes it easy to keep up with the latest.
Terry

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #320 on: August 30, 2017, 08:17:44 PM »
I second Terry's appreciation toward sig, and I'll add jai to the mix!

(And of course our own Terry is always appreciated, even when we occasionally disagree, as crabby old men are wont to do occasionally! '-) )

Meanwhile, the scribbler is at it again, with some good context along the lines of what jai just posted: https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/30/so-lets-talk-about-the-science-of-how-climate-change-kicked-harvey-into-higher-gear/#comment-123079

Quote
According to Dr Michael Mann, Ocean surfaces in the Gulf of Mexico are fully 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer, on average, than they were just 30 years ago. This warming provides more energy for storms that do form. And this, in turn, raises the top potential intensity of storms.

Some scientists, like Dr. James Hansen, refer to this prevalence of worsening extremity as loading the climate dice. If, in the past, we were rolling with a die six with a 1 representing the lowest storm intensity and a 6 representing the highest, we’re now rolling with something like a die six +1. The result is that the strongest storms are stronger and the absolutely strongest storms have an ability to achieve previously unattainable strengths due to the fact that there’s a lot more energy there to kick them into a higher state.

Increased potential peak storm intensity as a climate change factor does not necessarily result in more tropical storms forming overall. That part of the science on hurricanes is highly uncertain. But that heat engine in the form of warmer surface waters is available for the storms that do form to tap. And that can make them a lot stronger and more damaging than they otherwise would have been.

Another metaphor I've seen recently is leading the bat...you might not hit the ball more frequently, but when you do, it is much more likely to go out of the park. (Might not make sense to those unfamiliar with US baseball and ways of cheating at the same, tho...)
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 09:06:36 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #321 on: August 30, 2017, 08:35:51 PM »
"Our whole city is underwater right now but we are coming!  Please get to higher ground if you can, but please try stay out of attics."
- Port Arthur Mayor Derrick Freeman


Estimated 30,000 to 40,000 homes destroyed in Houston area
Quote
Houston Police Chief Art Acevedo said [life-threatening] 911 calls for water rescues were down to about 40 an hour as of this morning. Still, the Coast Guard is taking more than 1,000 calls per hour from people needing rescue.

Harris County Flood Control District meteorologist Jeff Lidner told reporters this morning that the lowest homes near the Addicks and Barker reservoirs have 3 to 6 feet of water.
...
The largest oil refinery in the United States is shutting down because of the devastating floods. Its owner, Motiva Enterprises, announced in a statement early today that it began a "controlled shutdown of the Port Arthur refinery in response to increasing local flood conditions."

The refinery won't reopen until floodwaters recede, the company said. ...
http://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/harvey-now-tropical-storm-makes-landfall-louisiana/story
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #322 on: August 30, 2017, 08:52:17 PM »
Hurricane Harvey: Residents in small communities work through damage
Quote
About 80% of Bayside [Texas] is destroyed, and it will be about two to three weeks before the electricity will be restored to the small community of about 300 people, said Karen Clark, assistant city secretary and municipal clerk.

A quarter of the town's residents rode out the hurricane in their homes, and despite the storm's fury, no deaths or injuries were reported.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/08/30/hurricane-harvey-residents-small-communities-work-through-damage/615297001/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #323 on: August 30, 2017, 08:57:13 PM »
Harvey Could Reshape How and Where Americans Build Homes
• Storm comes as U.S. flood insurance program is up for renewal
• Texas has one of the most relaxed approaches to building codes
Quote
Hurricane Harvey has highlighted a climate debate that had mostly stayed out of public view -- a debate that’s separate from the battle over greenhouse gas emissions, but more consequential to the lives of many Americans. At the core of that fight is whether the U.S. should respond to the growing threat of extreme weather by changing how and, even where, homes are built.

That debate pits insurers, who favor tighter building codes and fewer homes in vulnerable locations, against homebuilders and developers, who want to keep homes as inexpensive as possible. As the costs of extreme weather increase, that fight has spilled over into politics: Federal budget hawks want local policies that will reduce the cost of disasters, while many state and local officials worry about the lost tax revenue that might accompany tighter restrictions on development.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-30/harvey-could-reshape-how-and-where-americans-build-their-homes
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #324 on: August 30, 2017, 09:02:35 PM »
SigMN
Just wanted to send a note of appreciation for your work on this thread. Makes it easy to keep up with the latest.
Terry

Thanks, Terry. 

And thanks to everyone for adding different perspectives, and additional information!
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #325 on: August 30, 2017, 09:10:10 PM »
Quote
Beaumont/ Port Arthur, Texas, is in desperate need of help, as thousands need to be urgently rescued. As rains tapered off in the Houston Metro area last night, parts of the Beaumont- Port Arthur region received an ADDITIONAL 20" or more of torrential rain.

Unfortunately, all roads into the region are blocked by high water....often 20-30 miles before reaching the metro area.

I'm leading a boat convoy from Galveston this afternoon and will be away from computer for several days. ...
http://hurricanehalssb.blogspot.com
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #326 on: August 30, 2017, 09:38:00 PM »
Houston mosques open doors to shelter Harvey evacuees
Quote
(CNN) As flooding from Tropical Storm Harvey drives thousands of people from their homes across southeast Texas, more and more houses of worship are opening their doors to evacuees.

At least four Houston-area mosques, all affiliated with the Islamic Society of Greater Houston, are currently serving as 24-hour shelters. ...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/08/30/us/mosques-shelters-trnd/index.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #327 on: August 30, 2017, 10:17:15 PM »
GFS 12z op run has Irma down to 903 hpa, equivalent to a Cat 5 - hurricane. ECMWF is taking it down to 951 hpa by D8 which should be a Cat 3 - hurricane. In any case, Irma might pose a real threat to Hispaniola, Lesser Anthilles, Bahamas, US East coast and Florida. Worst case scenario should therefore be a powerful Cat 5 - hurricane over these areas.

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2478
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 583
  • Likes Given: 42
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #328 on: August 30, 2017, 10:25:28 PM »
Ouch ... Zillow home prices in the overspill area of Addicks. Even if insured, which 80% are not, that will only provide partial coverage. Then there is the question of mold in a very humid city developing over a month of flooding and who knows how long until contractors can get on it.
 . . .

Quite right about the mold.  This isn't a mere nuisance problem.  Post-flooding mold growth of Stachybotrys appears likely to have serious health implications:

Stachybotrys chartarum: The Toxic Indoor Mold
http://www.apsnet.org/publications/apsnetfeatures/Pages/Stachybotrys.aspx

After *feet* of rainfall in the Houston area, I can't imagine any but a relative handful of homes are entirely free of flooding.  Almost none of these can be expected to get dried out within the ideal 72-hour window.  After that, anything porous showing mold pretty much needs to be ripped out, including wood framing, not just drywall.  When the cost of such repair exceeds the market value of the home, I think we'll see many, many people just abandoning their homes. 

Which further devastates home values.  Which further encourages people to just walk away.  Kind of like Detroit's decline, vastly accelerated.

The costs and pain of this storm are just beginning, in many ways.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #329 on: August 30, 2017, 10:30:04 PM »
This is a *freeway* in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. Absolutely devastating rainfall
https://mobile.twitter.com/blkahn/status/902905777169555456

Video at the link.


This is probably the worst US flood storm ever, and I’ll never be the same
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/08/this-is-probably-the-worst-us-flood-storm-ever-and-ill-never-be-the-same/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #330 on: August 31, 2017, 12:12:51 AM »
In the linked article, Scribbler discusses the science of how climate change may have contributed to the destructive nature of Hurricane Harvey:

Title: "So Let’s Talk About the Science of How Climate Change Kicked Harvey into Higher Gear"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/30/so-lets-talk-about-the-science-of-how-climate-change-kicked-harvey-into-higher-gear/
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #331 on: August 31, 2017, 01:30:48 AM »
Here is another article discussing the link between climate change and the impacts of Harvey:

Title: "Arctic Warming Made Harvey A ‘Killer Storm,’ Climate Researcher Says"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/climate-change-hurricane-harvey_us_59a6f6a3e4b00795c2a35c15

Extract: "Soaring temperatures in the Arctic are causing record ice melt, animals to change ancient patterns, and Greenland to literally burn.
 
But the effects don’t stay in the northernmost latitudes. Melting sea ice and increased warming slow down global air currents called jet streams and cause storms like Hurricane Harvey to “meander” and “stall,” according to Charles H. Greene, a professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell University.

“What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic,” he said in a statement on Wednesday. “Just like Superstorm Sandy, Arctic warming likely played an important role in making Hurricane Harvey such an extreme killer storm.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #332 on: August 31, 2017, 01:57:41 AM »
OMG

Tyler County’s message to its constituents north of Beaumont, Texas: “GET OUT OR DIE!”
https://mobile.twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/903042658850963457


Edit:  not a hoax -- It is posted on their official Facebook page.
https://www.facebook.com/Tyler-County-Emergency-Management-242049542505977/

http://www.ksbw.com/article/east-texas-county-tells-residents-get-out-or-die/12142731
« Last Edit: September 02, 2017, 02:50:43 AM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #333 on: August 31, 2017, 03:52:57 AM »
HWRF 18z wastes no time ramping up Irma into a major hurricane over next 3-5 days.  Note bend in track to the WSW, unusual to lose latitude.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/903050314730917888
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

pileus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 536
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #334 on: August 31, 2017, 04:10:06 AM »
HWRF 18z wastes no time ramping up Irma into a major hurricane over next 3-5 days.  Note bend in track to the WSW, unusual to lose latitude.
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/903050314730917888

Longer range plots have Irma curving out to sea. Not good for the upper latitudes or whatever remnants hit Europe, but a strike on the island chains would be especially bad as Harvey is stretching all sorts of resources that would otherwise be available to be deployed elsewhere.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #335 on: August 31, 2017, 04:19:26 AM »
"Out to sea"...  eventually....

"Current tropical systems on a map thru next 15-days from ECMWF EPS (12z)
Most #Irma tracks very intense (Cat 4+) w/U.S. threats. "
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/903031486768717824
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #336 on: August 31, 2017, 04:21:50 AM »
Thoughtful San Antonio opinion piece.

Texas officials need to accept climate change
Quote
Texas officials — notably, Gov. Greg Abbott, Rep. Lamar Smith, Sens. Ted Cruz and John Cornyn — need to accept the science and follow it with appropriate policy. Ignoring the science, perpetuating false doubt, is to court future disasters.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/thirdandavenuee/article/Texas-officials-need-to-accept-climate-change-12159178.php
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2357
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #337 on: August 31, 2017, 06:23:43 AM »
Don't know how valid this is but apparently early GFS model projections are a Cat 5 Hurricane Irma headed close to or into the Carolinas.

Haiku of Futures Passed
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

aperson

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 228
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 100
  • Likes Given: 131
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #338 on: August 31, 2017, 06:47:01 AM »
If Irma's going to take a northward trend into the cyclone train that's forming, would anyone be able to hazard a guess as to how they would interact?

Between the cyclone train that is being generated from EPAC toward the pole and the amount of upwelling that was done by Harvey (and more storms this season at this rate), I'm starting to wonder if the levee on our convection budget just breached. Maybe this is the wording we should be using to explain to people how climate change and a runway greenhouse effect work?

Upwelling from Harvey: https://twitter.com/SoonerTom/status/903089795345338376
Cyclone train from equator toward pole: https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/903083907653935105

It seems like it will ride the cyclone train conveyor belt straight south toward the equator and recurve up depending on how much resistance it gets. If that happens it will be completely off the charts. Landfall actually somewhere along Yucatan?
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 06:57:47 AM by aperson »
computer janitor by trade

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #339 on: August 31, 2017, 07:18:02 AM »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #340 on: August 31, 2017, 07:31:57 AM »
Latest GFS 00z op run takes Irma down to 897 hpa. A lower pressure than that has only been measured by Wilma, Gilbert and Rita. The 00z op run also has Irma to make a bend similar to Sandy by +210h but that scenario should be a black swan due to that it's so far ahead. Let's see what the EC says.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #341 on: August 31, 2017, 08:44:01 AM »
The latest NHC track has Irma becoming "major" on Sunday:

Quote
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast and Irma is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #342 on: August 31, 2017, 12:20:32 PM »
Finally found a drone video of the northeast overflow point of Addicks. It doesn't seem like a strong flow that can cause erosion, although I'm not sure when the video was taken.
! No longer available

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #343 on: August 31, 2017, 01:11:35 PM »
The Gulf coast of Texas and Louisiana is a center of petroleum refining and chemical production.

Organic peroxides which explode if not kept cold.   The plant's generators became flooded... then the back-up generators flooded. The chemicals were moved to diesel-powered refrigerators, but now those are failing. The remaining skeleton staff was evacuated due to the danger.

Explosions reported at flood-hit Arkema chemical plant in Texas
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-harvey-arkema-idUSKCN1BA2LF

Houston-Area Chemical Plant ‘Could Explode,’ CEO Says
http://www.thedailybeast.com/houston-area-chemical-plant-could-explode-ceo-says?via=twitter_page
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 02:01:10 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

pileus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 536
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #344 on: August 31, 2017, 01:13:22 PM »
The 0z Euro solution takes Irma through the islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba.  Whatever remains likely emerges into the Straits of Florida or Gulf and goes on to impact Mexico or the US

Beyond any range of utility, but the 6z GFS is different kind of absolute nightmare scenario, taking a strong cat 4 into North Carolina, up the Chesapeake Bay, and then up through NY.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 01:21:14 PM by pileus »

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #345 on: August 31, 2017, 01:16:17 PM »
Final Houston-area rainfall totals for Harvey, the worst rainstorm in American history.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/903056075800358913
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #346 on: August 31, 2017, 01:18:24 PM »
As #Harvey exits the scene, all eyes turn to #Irma as it potentially sets its sights on the NE Caribbean and then...? Long week ahead!
https://mobile.twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/903196328913772544
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #347 on: August 31, 2017, 01:32:22 PM »
Article includes a great little video by Katharine Hayhoe on why providing science and data will not persuade most climate change deniers. But you can connect via things that you both value, like saving money on electric bills, or improving the lives of your children.

Want to talk climate change with a Texan right now? Show some compassion first.
Quote
Yes, we should be having the conversation about climate change and Hurricane Harvey, and anyone who tells you otherwise probably has ulterior motives. But before we go there, we need to show the people of the Gulf Coast that we genuinely care about them. Could our shared value be the lives of Texans who are hurting?
https://grist.org/article/want-to-talk-climate-change-with-a-texan-right-now-show-some-compassion-first/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #348 on: August 31, 2017, 02:04:52 PM »
Don't know how valid this is but apparently early GFS model projections are a Cat 5 Hurricane Irma headed close to or into the Carolinas.



"Only thing we can say about #Irma is that its heading toward North America. Anything else is simply irresponsible. Many different solutions."
- Jim Cantore
https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/903088547304964097
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2977
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 944
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #349 on: August 31, 2017, 02:21:33 PM »
Nice catch, Oren. Finally, a beautiful drone flight of the overspilling Addicks Reservoir past the "armored" emergency spillway showing surrounding neighborhoods, somewhat after the high water.

In #342, it says no longer available but if you click on that text, it opens and plays perfectly. I'm attaching two stills below (first needs a click) in case the Corps forces a take-down. Without a timestamp, the water level cannot be determined at the time of flight. It was quite a while after the peak however. The side seeps are another whole issue that is not over by any means but probably manageable.

« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 03:49:02 PM by A-Team »