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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #400 on: September 02, 2017, 08:46:35 PM »
BREAKING: AP Exclusive: Many Houston ultra-polluted Superfund sites are flooded, concerns about toxins spreading; EPA not on scene.
https://twitter.com/ap/status/904031403985305601


Edit: article:
AP EXCLUSIVE: Toxic waste sites flooded in Houston area
https://apnews.com/27796dd13b9549b0ac76aded58a15122
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 02:35:33 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #401 on: September 02, 2017, 09:08:42 PM »
Stretching the Thread topic a bit, but:  grateful citizens are donating to a "gofundme" campaign for Houston meteorologist Jeff Lindner.  The original plan was to buy him a well-deserved vacation, but as a federal employee he cannot accept it.  So they will give him the money to donate as he sees fit.

Let's Buy Jeff Lindner a Vacation
https://www.gofundme.com/lets-buy-jeff-lindner-a-vacation


In one day, thankful Houstonians have raised >$17k for a vacation for their county's hero meteorologist. @JeffLindner1 saved countless lives
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/904055386222854145
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #402 on: September 03, 2017, 01:04:17 AM »
Houston mayor orders mandatory evacuation of flooded homes near the reservoirs.

Ordering MANDATORY evacuation of West Houston dwellings already flooded by release of water from Addicks and Barker-Cypress reservoirs.
https://twitter.com/sylvesterturner/status/904110393286676481

People in about 300 inundated homes in the zone have so far chosen to stay despite by voluntary evacuation yesterday.

But now Centerpoint will turn off electricity to inundated dwellings in the zone starting 7 a.m. Sunday. Doesn't apply to unflooded homes,

Mandatory evac order under state law is only for flooded homes south of I-10, north of Briarforest, east of reservoirs and west of Gessner.

Mandatory evacuation order is to prevent harm to residents and make first responder work more feasible in that zone.

People in about 115 homes have already evacuated voluntarily. Thousands more need to be evacuated, according to Fire Dept.

The @cohoustonfire will make sure everyone who needs help to evacuate will get it.

I'm ordering this mandatory evacuation of west Houston zone with my authority granted by state law.

About 4,600 apartments and houses got flood water in the mandatory evacuaton zone. Most have already left.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #403 on: September 03, 2017, 01:14:30 AM »
Use the sliders to compare "before" and "after" satellite images.

Planet Satellite Imagery Shows Harvey Devastation
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2017/09/01/planet-satellite-imagery-shows-harvey-devastation/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #404 on: September 03, 2017, 01:16:36 AM »
At 0500 CST (2100 UTC), Severe Tropical Storm #Mawar was about 200 km SE of Shanwei in Guangdong province. Orange typhoon warnings in effect
https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/904109656297029632
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #405 on: September 03, 2017, 02:33:05 AM »
Harvey Aftermath: A Public Health Crisis in the Making
Quote
The Gulf Coast faces an evolving public health crisis in the wake of Hurricane Harvey that's likely to unfold over months or even years. Health officials are concerned about everything from immediate injuries and exposure to germs and toxic chemicals to more insidious and long-term threats, including mold in the walls of flooded homes and mental health problems.

Many of those public health concerns match what experts have been warning we'll see more of as climate change brings more severe weather.

When storms hit, they can tip the vulnerable over the edge of danger. A New York Times interactive of requests for help from Houston-area residents offers a snapshot of the wide range of problems that can arise in the midst of a storm, from "on last oxygen tank," to "no food and babies have no milk," to simply "neck deep in water.

"You have to worry about immediate effects like drowning, you have chemical exposures from the refineries around Houston, as well as chemicals from households," said Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College. "You also have to worry about infectious diseases." ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31082017/hurricane-harvey-health-risks-climate-change-disease-toxic-chemicals-mold
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #406 on: September 03, 2017, 12:53:28 PM »
Astonishing amounts of water still in the streets of west Houston today. Hard to believe Harvey made landfall nearly a week ago.
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/903770781943042048

Brief video clip at the link.
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #407 on: September 03, 2017, 02:25:20 PM »
The GFS and Euro 0z model runs both bring a strong cat 4 or 5 system into the North Carolina mainland, late next weekend into 9/11. Florida is also at risk depending on the evolution of the steering currents.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #408 on: September 03, 2017, 02:36:41 PM »
IRMA

Extract from NHC discussion 16 (my bold of part of extract):-

"the track guidance has shifted westward after 48 hours, delaying a
turn toward the west-northwest, and this required a corresponding
westward shift in the official forecast toward the multi-model
consensus at the end of the forecast period. It should be noted
that the official forecast still lies to the east of some of the
better-performing models, such as the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA,
so
additional adjustment are possible in subsequent advisories."

Extract from NHC latest graph of path also shows shift.
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #409 on: September 03, 2017, 03:25:35 PM »
Mara Lago?

AbruptSLR

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #410 on: September 03, 2017, 05:00:50 PM »
Scribbler offers some insight on Irma:

Title: "878 mb Storm Off North Florida — The Model Forecast for Irma that no one Wants to See Happen"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/03/878-mb-storm-off-north-florida-the-model-forecast-for-irma-that-no-one-wants-to-see-happen/

Extract: "Looking beyond the official forecast, some of the our best long range model runs are putting together some seriously scary predictions for Irma. By next week, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows Irma as a 878 mb monster hurricane looming about 300 miles off Florida. 878 mb would represent the lowest pressures ever recorded in a hurricane in the Atlantic (The present strongest Atlantic storm was Wilma at 882 mb. The devastating Labor Day Hurricane hit 892 mb.). And it would almost certainly represent the strongest storm in our records ever to venture so far North. 878 mb roughly corresponds with maximum sustained winds in excess of 170 mph and possibly as high as 200 mph or more. And we’ve never seen something like that threatening the Central Atlantic U.S. East Coast in all of the modern era."
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 06:05:48 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #411 on: September 03, 2017, 05:10:25 PM »
TV station in Miami is careful to de-emphasize the large end of the cone near Florida.

Phil Ferro:  Here is the latest forecast track on #Irma
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhilFerro7/status/904356173868085249

Edit:  Miami meteorologist re Irma hitting south Florida:
John Morales: Way too soon to be terrified. We have to wait....
https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/904355147257708544
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 05:22:30 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #412 on: September 03, 2017, 06:09:53 PM »
Eight Atlantic Hurricanes That Start With 'I' Have Been Retired Since 2001
https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/i-hurricanes-retired-since-2000.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #413 on: September 03, 2017, 06:14:00 PM »
Hurricane Harvey’s Impact — And How It Compares To Other Storms
Quote
Hurricane Harvey, which dumped an estimated 27 trillion gallons of water on Texas and Louisiana, looks to be one of the most damaging natural disasters in U.S. history. Flooding continues to affect large areas of Houston, Beaumont and other areas of Texas. Tens of thousands have been forced to evacuate their homes, and rig shut downs and evacuations along the Gulf have curbed oil and gas production. The White House, meanwhile, is expected to ask Congress for $14.5 billion in relief funding. While we don’t know Harvey’s ultimate toll on life and property — and won’t for some time — here are the best estimates of the hurricane’s impacts so far, and how they compare to the destruction wrought by other major storms....
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hurricane-harveys-impact-and-how-it-compares-to-other-storms/amp/
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logicmanPatrick

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #414 on: September 03, 2017, 06:40:35 PM »
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC SUN SEP 03.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC MON SEP 04.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE SEP 05.

...

...

.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRMA NEAR 18.2N 61.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT GUSTS 145 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRMA NEAR 20.4N 67.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE IRMA NEAR 22.5N 72.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/22%C2%B030'00.0%22N+72%C2%B000'00.0%22W/@21.0975244,-70.8531945,2279478m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d22.5!4d-72

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si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes

jai mitchell

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #415 on: September 03, 2017, 06:43:08 PM »
 :-[  Very Unfortunately, the most recent long-range models show a westward movement of the North Atlantic high pressure system (Bermuda High) which determines if tropical hurricanes continue their westward path or turn north and east (fish storm). 

This westward movement of the high pressure steering system has locked in a U.S. landfall for Irma.

While the long range models may change significantly and there is a (slight) possibility that large changes may happen going forward, the amount of change that has to happen between now and next Tuesday to allow a miss of the U.S. is so great that it is very unlikely to happen now.

This storm will be a monster in dimension and will likely be a Cat 5 hurricane between now and landfall.  Current models show impact between Florida and Virginia with significant windspeeds (> 100 mph) as far inland as Pittsburgh. 

The water vapor column associated with this storm (and projected central low pressure) are extreme and hourly rainfall totals will likely be unprecedented, though this storm will be a fast moving one, unlike Harvey.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/08/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/equirectangular=-58.52,27.78,521/loc=-47.198,41.746
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #416 on: September 03, 2017, 07:05:12 PM »
Regardless of exact track, #Irma will serve up monstrous waves along East Coast next weekend. This particular model projects 50-60ft waves!
https://mobile.twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/904368456648314880

Royal Caribbean changed their Allure of the Seas trip from E Caribbean to W Caribbean due to #Irma
https://twitter.com/toweringCU/status/904386473222447104

"Anthem of the Seas watch has been issued."
https://mobile.twitter.com/IrishEagle/status/904384861036785665
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jai mitchell

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #417 on: September 03, 2017, 07:22:15 PM »
this video has a good description of the high pressure steering ridge.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #418 on: September 03, 2017, 07:28:50 PM »
Ecological mayhem ensues?


National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center:

#HurricaneHarvey caused such significant flooding the rivers have jumped over watershed boundaries! #txwx #txflood #HarveyFlood #houwx
https://twitter.com/NWSWGRFC/status/904393695750959105

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #419 on: September 03, 2017, 08:09:33 PM »
UPDATE: 

EPA says Superfund sites around Houston aren't accessible to its personnel. @AP got to 7 by boat, vehicle, on foot
https://twitter.com/jpacedc/status/904109681806893056

https://apnews.com/27796dd13b9549b0ac76aded58a15122
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #420 on: September 03, 2017, 11:42:01 PM »
Ecological mayhem ensues?


National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center:

#HurricaneHarvey caused such significant flooding the rivers have jumped over watershed boundaries! #txwx #txflood #HarveyFlood #houwx
https://twitter.com/NWSWGRFC/status/904393695750959105
What the San Bernard fish need is a wall, a big beautiful wall to keep those climate refugees from Colorado out.
I can just see the

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #421 on: September 04, 2017, 12:12:29 AM »
UPDATE: 

EPA says Superfund sites around Houston aren't accessible to its personnel. @AP got to 7 by boat, vehicle, on foot
https://twitter.com/jpacedc/status/904109681806893056

https://apnews.com/27796dd13b9549b0ac76aded58a15122


Amazingly unprofessional response from the EPA to the AP Superfund site story:
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-response-aps-misleading-story 



Quote
This EPA statement pushing back on the AP’s reporting is unreal...
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/904404196107194368b

Quote
The EPA press release links to a Breitbart story blasting the AP’s reporting as “fake news” 
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/904405497071198208

Quote
This reads like a Breitbart intern creating official US government statements. Which is probably what happened. 
https://twitter.com/teroterotero/status/904405476103909376

Quote
Yes! Total intern job. ( no offense to interns ) but clearly anyone knowledgeable about PR aid away on vacation. #EPA #Harvey 
https://twitter.com/brettaronow/status/904428208837275648

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #422 on: September 04, 2017, 12:52:23 AM »
4pm ET Sunday Sept 3

Eric Holthaus:  Roughly 75% chance now that #Irma will impact the U.S. as a major hurricane. A lot can still change, but trending in the wrong direction now
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/904435606792675329

12z Euro ensembles shifted west from 00z.  Mean is very close to southeast Florida in 7 days. #Irma
https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/904429657927421953
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #423 on: September 04, 2017, 01:42:33 AM »
This evening's runs of the specialized hurricane models are showing Irma's central pressure reaching the lowest levels of any cyclone ever on planet earth, at least within human record keeping.  850s while passing over the Bahamas.  We can only hope this is a matter of data error or the simulations being over-aggressive.

Or is this already one of Hansen's "storms of my grandchildren"?

jai mitchell

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #424 on: September 04, 2017, 01:52:33 AM »
Or is this already one of Hansen's "storms of my grandchildren"?

too soon.
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pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #425 on: September 04, 2017, 01:59:38 AM »
Or is this already one of Hansen's "storms of my grandchildren"?

too soon.

IIRC from his book the hypothesis is boulders were unleashed from the ocean floor near the Bahamas and are exposed on shore?  This storm could certainly not do that, but it is suggestive of challenging the lowest Atlantic or global cyclone pressure.  So maybe a precursor for what is to come, when shear, water temps and steering aloft are all aligned to maximize potential.


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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #426 on: September 04, 2017, 02:12:17 AM »
This view from the 18z GFS is simply for demonstrative purposes of what is being shown on the models.  The timing is far out of reliable range and the pressure is likely modeled much too low.  But verbatim, the storm surge would devastate much of the North Carolina coast, not to mention the extremely large wind field, waves, and rain fall wreaking havoc across the SE US.

logicmanPatrick

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #427 on: September 04, 2017, 02:37:51 AM »
UPDATE: 

EPA says Superfund sites around Houston aren't accessible to its personnel. @AP got to 7 by boat, vehicle, on foot
https://twitter.com/jpacedc/status/904109681806893056

https://apnews.com/27796dd13b9549b0ac76aded58a15122


Amazingly unprofessional response from the EPA to the AP Superfund site story:
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-response-aps-misleading-story 



Quote
This EPA statement pushing back on the AP’s reporting is unreal...
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/904404196107194368b

Quote
The EPA press release links to a Breitbart story blasting the AP’s reporting as “fake news” 
https://twitter.com/passantino/status/904405497071198208

Quote
This reads like a Breitbart intern creating official US government statements. Which is probably what happened. 
https://twitter.com/teroterotero/status/904405476103909376

Quote
Yes! Total intern job. ( no offense to interns ) but clearly anyone knowledgeable about PR aid away on vacation. #EPA #Harvey 
https://twitter.com/brettaronow/status/904428208837275648

Minitrue has been at work.  Those twitter embeds have gone and access is denied on EPA site.

If it isn't available on the web then it never happened, and anyone who says it did is a fake news troll.

Reality control, 1984 style.
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #428 on: September 04, 2017, 02:49:22 AM »
Bellingcat published a report with some impressive pre-and-post-Harvey satellite image compares of some of the most affected areas around Houston.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2017/09/01/planet-satellite-imagery-shows-harvey-devastation/

All images are nicely dated, placed and sourced.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #429 on: September 04, 2017, 03:10:16 AM »
#HurricaneIrma as seen from the old GOES-13 satellite vs the new GOES-16.  The upgrade in image quality is unquestionable
https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/904335820596924416

GIF of old and new satellite loops at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #430 on: September 04, 2017, 03:25:42 AM »
"A sign of how South Florida residents are feeling about #Irma. My daughter in the [bottled] water aisle this afternoon... "
https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanNBC6/status/904467707365654528
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TerryM

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #431 on: September 04, 2017, 03:45:01 AM »
Fill up the tub.
Fill up the sinks.
Fill up the car.
Consider a move?


Cute kid who deserves better than dodging storm surges.
Terry

Andre

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #432 on: September 04, 2017, 06:24:43 AM »
The latest (00z Monday) GFS run is catastrophic, to say the least. Unfortunately, the trend over the last few runs which kept shifting the storm further south-west has continued.

Still waiting on the latest ECMWF run to compare...




pileus

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #433 on: September 04, 2017, 06:40:31 AM »
The latest (00z Monday) GFS run is catastrophic, to say the least. Unfortunately, the trend over the last few runs which kept shifting the storm further south-west has continued.

Still waiting on the latest ECMWF run to compare...

Here's a closer view, in tonight's version of which major American city gets destroyed by Hurricane Irma simulations.

In the last few days NYC, Philly, Baltimore, DC, the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the entire state of North Carolina, and now all of Miami and SE Florida have been featured in doomsday scenarios.


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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #434 on: September 04, 2017, 11:53:33 AM »
Extract from NHC discussion 20 follows. Unfortunately supports the shift to the West

"Irma will begin rounding the southwestern edge of the high soon, which will allow
the hurricane to turn westward later today and then west-
northwestward in 36-48 hours.  Down the road, a large mid-latitude
trough is expected to dig southward over the eastern United States
during the next 72 hours, but the global models have been trending
toward quickly lifting the trough out over New England and eastern
Canada on days 4 and 5, with the subtropical ridge building westward
toward Florida.  As a result, it's becoming increasingly likely that
Irma would maintain a west-northwestward heading on days 3 through
5, and the track guidance shifted significantly westward on this
cycle during that period.  Remarkably, the track models are very
tightly clustered through day 5, which increases the confidence in
the westward shift of the latest NHC forecast.
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #435 on: September 04, 2017, 01:14:39 PM »
Hurricane hunter plane's Monday morning pass:

4:57 AM EDT — #Irma is looking very healthy this morning from NOAA P3 on-board radar. About to get our first center pass now.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/904630932761694208

5:04 AM EDT - Morning radar scan from inside #Irma's eye.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/904633831940120577

6:44 AM EDT - Second center drop splashed at 948mb with 10kt wind. Likely ~947mb in #Irma now. Pressure continuing to fall.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/904658007019188225

Today is a big day for #Irma recon. 6-hour fixes start at 18Z - combo of USAF and NOAA flights. Plus NOAA G-IV synoptic mission.
https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/904615431968874496
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be cause

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #436 on: September 04, 2017, 01:41:29 PM »
the gfs 0600 forecast has Irma leaving Cuba and then travelling North the length of Florida while seeming to lose little of her intensity . Is mother nature attempting yo wake her wayward son in the White House ?
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

Forest Dweller

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #437 on: September 04, 2017, 03:57:19 PM »
With GFS too inaccurate still for giving more details about the US East coast scenario with Irma, it is becoming more likely Cuba will be struck all over pretty much.
It would be nice if she left Haïti alone...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #438 on: September 04, 2017, 04:00:11 PM »
A 'Mega Ensemble' of sorts here with all 122 Ensemble member probability of #Irma's location. #Bahamas likely to be impacted, then ?
https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/904695361285103616

Here is the probability graphic, using the GFS, ECWMF, Canadian, and NAVGEM and all their ensemble members. #Irma
https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/904647775194935296
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #439 on: September 04, 2017, 04:14:36 PM »
FEMA Spokesperson re Harvey aid:

Quote
#Harvey - So far we've approved +176k survivors for $141M in assistance DisasterAssistance.gov, FEMA App, in person http://asd.fema.gov/inter/locator/home.htm
https://twitter.com/femaspox/status/904705512930992128
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #440 on: September 04, 2017, 04:29:54 PM »
Will Irma pass through the Herbert Box?

John Morales:  Yes.
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/904701239065227264


Hebert Box
Quote
A Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert's Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.[1]

Examples include unnamed hurricanes in 1926, 1928, 1933, and 1935, as well as the major hurricanes Donna and Betsy, all of which came through an Hebert Box. Collectively these storms killed more than 2,000 people in Florida. Conversely, storms such as the major hurricanes Floyd and Gert in 1999, which both were headed for Florida at one point, missed the Hebert Boxes and turned away from Florida at the last minute.[1]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #441 on: September 04, 2017, 05:00:02 PM »
Some weather models are not like the others.  ;D


By popular request here it is with NAVGEM removed. Just NCEP/ECMWF/CMC Should be that way going forward
https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/904712855160844288
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logicmanPatrick

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #442 on: September 04, 2017, 05:31:21 PM »
Good article in Forbes from Marshall Shepherd

Quote
Ok folks, I am officially concerned, and I usually try to be measured. It is Labor Day, and many people are enjoying the day off. There is a group of professionals, however, that is working very hard today as the increasingly worrisome threat of Hurricane Irma looms.



Hurricane Irma is a grave threat to residents in the Caribbean region and looks to be an equally worrisome threat for the contiguous United States. Irma is a category 3 hurricane and just to the east of Leeward Islands where hurricane watches have been issued. The latest 5-day forecast (above) is ominous, and I have distilled some important points from the 5:00 am AST NHC forecast discussion,
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #443 on: September 04, 2017, 06:43:08 PM »
Experimental Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds
Quote
Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time: the primary graphic, which identifies the time window that users at individual locations can safely assume will be free from tropical-storm-force winds. Specifically, this is the time before which there is no more than a 1-in-10 (10 percent) chance of seeing the onset of sustained tropical-storm-force winds – the period during which preparations should ideally be completed for those with a low tolerance for risk.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145912.shtml?mltoa34#contents
« Last Edit: September 04, 2017, 06:49:23 PM by Sigmetnow »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #444 on: September 04, 2017, 11:17:30 PM »
Talk about horrifying projections, here is today's 12z GFS projection for Irma making landfall near Miami with a central pressure of 890 mb on Sept 10 2017:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #445 on: September 04, 2017, 11:28:33 PM »
“I have declared a state of emergency for every county in Florida to make certain that state, federal and local governments are able to work together and make sure resources are dispersed to local communities as we get prepared for this storm.”

Florida Declares State of Emergency Ahead of Irma
http://www.weatherboy.com/florida-declares-state-emergency-ahead-irma/
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A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #446 on: September 05, 2017, 12:29:34 AM »
Quote
Talk about horrifying projections
Indeed. The projection is enlarged slightly below. The eye appears at the junction of Key Largo and and mainland. The Homestead air force base is 6 miles ENE of town.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #447 on: September 05, 2017, 01:21:07 AM »
Hurricane evacuations called primarily for storm surge threat. #Florida has the most population at risk for potential surge via @NHC_Surge.
https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/904840888165289984

#2: New York
#3: New Jersey
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #448 on: September 05, 2017, 03:18:31 AM »
Just about all of the generally reliable guidance keep #Irma as a category 4 #hurricane for the next 5 days- Super rare Atlantic forecast!
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/904874961344626688
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #449 on: September 05, 2017, 11:02:56 AM »
IRMA - I am reminded of Marlon Brando as Jor-El: Superman's biological father on Krypton. He has a theory about the planet exploding, yet the Council refuses to listen.

Trump, Pruitt, Lamar Smith, Perry need to take a vacation next weekend, maybe extended  into Tuesday, at Mar-a-Lago.

From NHC Discussion 24
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 16.6N  57.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 17.0N  58.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 17.7N  61.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 18.6N  64.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 19.6N  67.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 21.2N  72.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 22.4N  77.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 24.0N  81.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

ps: Looks like another one is to follow about 2-3 days behind.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)