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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1000 on: September 19, 2017, 03:22:25 AM »
#Maria is about to make landfall in #Dominica as a powerful Category 5 major hurricane with sustained winds of 160 MPH. #GOES16
https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/909947826754457600
IR satellite GIF at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1001 on: September 19, 2017, 03:26:12 AM »
Major #lightning outbreak in #Maria inner core detected by @VaisalaGroup #GLD360. Likely influenced by orographic lift over #Dominica
https://twitter.com/COweatherman/status/909946452817846272
GIF at the link.
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Yamatin

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1002 on: September 19, 2017, 03:28:39 AM »
Yamatin: many thanks for your input.

Given that floodwaters tend to be fast in, slow out, would you agree that it is likely that there would be a gradient of pollution around a contaminated flooded site rather than dilution over a substantial area?  I have seen this effect for small scale flooding: a foot or two of water lingering for a week or two.  I have no experience of anything deeper or longer lasting. (For which I am eternally grateful)

I would mostly agree with that. The flood would need sufficient velocity to be able to pick up a significant amount of soil, at which point I assume at that speed it is likely going to be moving for a few miles before slowing down sufficiently to settle in mass. Depending on the local topography and other obstacles there could be localized areas with more settling, but the Superfund-related soil would have mixed with cleaner soil causing further dilution. (While dilution is not the solution to pollution, it does tend to provide a lot of protection in situations like this)

For an example, we can use one of the most common soil contaminants, lead. One would prefer to have concentrations in soil under 100pm although concentrations up to 400pm are common in industrial areas and considered safe for children to play in per EPA. The Superfund sites that I have worked on regularly hit between 1,000ppm and 15,000ppm. The high end of that spectrum is usually very localized areas covering maybe 100 sq.m in total, with the remaining say 10 acres averaging around 3,000ppm. If the first inch of soil is stripped by the flood (usually much cleaner than the soil a few inches below the surface) over the entire 10-acre area and then deposited over 1 square mile, which seems highly conservative given the sprawling nature of floods, then the average added concentration to that 1 square mile is just under 50ppm. This is potentially enough to sufficiently contaminant farmland depending on the gradient of the settlement, but otherwise not that big a concern.

Second the kudos to Sig for the great work on keeping this thread updated!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1003 on: September 19, 2017, 03:32:12 AM »
Satellite imagery comparison offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast of a winter cyclone #bombogenesis last year and #HurricaneJose today
https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/909945227699458048
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1004 on: September 19, 2017, 04:04:22 AM »
"My roof is gone. I am at the complete mercy of the hurricane."
Roosevelt Skerrit, Prime Minister of Dominica, tonight
My God.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/909960187435536385

#HurricaneMaria  #Dominica Roosevelt Skerrit Prime Minister of Dominica, check out his profile on Facebook
https://twitter.com/royalnoah123/status/909951947356155904


UPDATE: 41 minutes ago, a Facebook post:  "I have been rescued."
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 04:13:56 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1005 on: September 19, 2017, 04:10:12 AM »
Number of cat 5 hurricane landfalls on an island in the Lesser Antilles:
1851-2016 : 0
2017: 2 #Irma, #Maria
https://twitter.com/isodrosotherm/status/909958594551877632
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1006 on: September 19, 2017, 04:34:59 AM »
It looks like Dominica's radio just went out at 10:22 pm ET
https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/909966255691583489

Report that building near to #DBS Radio #Dominica collapsed and part of that structure ended up in the #DBS newsroom. #HurricaneMaria
https://twitter.com/CBCAdrianH/status/909968228247621635

UPDATE: The main hospital in Roseau, Dominica has lost its roof
https://twitter.com/KevzPolitics/status/909958398082469888
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1007 on: September 19, 2017, 04:54:17 AM »
Meanwhile, say goodbye to Tropical Depression Lee:

...LEE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024522.shtml?cone#contents
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1008 on: September 19, 2017, 04:57:34 AM »
 This evening's key messages for Jose.

Edit: 11pm update
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/909978788985016321
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 05:15:53 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1009 on: September 19, 2017, 05:08:57 AM »
11pm update:
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING OVER DOMINICA...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

More:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/190254.shtml?

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jai mitchell

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1010 on: September 19, 2017, 06:17:11 AM »
what the HELL is Jose doing?  Waiting in the wings for Maria to come up so that they can do the Fujiwhara shuffle???

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/09/23/0600Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-83.22,33.15,1879/loc=-73.047,25.250

I am at a total loss at this, it just doesn't feel right. 

I guess the biggest issue is, how accurate can the models be now that we have hurricanes jumping 2 categories above model projections in only 24 hours and a stationary hurricane off of the New England coastline???

Seriously, long range forecasts show Jose doing ANOTHER loop and possibly moving west with a major hurricane Maria moving into the U.S. south. . . it baffles the mind. . .
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oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1011 on: September 19, 2017, 07:24:51 AM »
In all fairness, the NHC kept discussed the possibility of rapid intensification for Maria and said it would not be surprising at all.
Jose on the other hand is a strange beast and feels like it's been around for eternity. But it surely must weaken given its location with cold SSTs and wind shear.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1012 on: September 19, 2017, 01:12:19 PM »
Atlantic Category 5 hurricanes (33 in total):
1851-1900: 0
1901-1930: 2
1931-1960: 8
1961-1990: 10
1991-2017: 13
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-1851-2016-041117.txt
         https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910016642104664064


Heartbreaking statement from Roosevelt Skerrit, Prime Minister of Dominica:
"We will need help, my friend, we will need help of all kinds."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910025881837502464

Quote
Just 24 hours ago, #Maria was a Category 1. Now, by all accounts, Dominica lays largely in ruins from a Category 5.
An unfathomable tragedy.
--
There was no computer model showing this would happen, although there were hints. Meteorological conditions were ideal for strengthening.
--
What transpired on Monday was a true nightmare, a worst-case scenario.
--
If you are in P.R. or the Virgin Islands: Do whatever you must do on Tuesday to prepare for Maria. Help each other.
This is the big one.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910031950441799680



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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1013 on: September 19, 2017, 01:14:50 PM »
Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
510 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...MARIA REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...


Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Maria has reintensified to category 5
status, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260
km/h).
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/190906.shtml
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1014 on: September 19, 2017, 01:16:33 PM »
5am update:  Key messages for Hurricane Jose.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1015 on: September 19, 2017, 01:23:16 PM »
A video from the southern tip of Guadeloupe, which was hit by the NE of Hurricane Maria's eyewall. Very violent winds and lashing rain!
     https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/910098478747062272

[Direct] #Maria #Basseterre Les vents sont extrêmement violents. Restez confinés. Ne sortez sous aucun prétexte.
https://twitter.com/Prefet971/status/910013471059824640
Unbelievable video at this link.
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oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1016 on: September 19, 2017, 01:33:40 PM »
This guy Jose has been named two weeks ago. It's probably not the longest streak ever, but it sure is a lot. Enough.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1017 on: September 19, 2017, 02:03:00 PM »
Eyewall Replacement Cycle. 

Hurricane #Maria has regained overnight much of the strength it lost over Dominica. Not sure how long 7-mile wide eye will last before ERC.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/910100281144365057
Image from Hurricane Hunter plane data.



@fema Commodities & teams are positioned to support USVI & PR.  #maria
https://twitter.com/FEMA_Brock/status/910098107102359552
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1018 on: September 19, 2017, 02:11:39 PM »
 :'(

L'oeil de #Maria passant sur la #Dominique vu du satellite la nuit dernière. #Dominica
https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/910107770158030848
IR satellite video at the link: Eye of Maria passing over Dominica last night.



Next 12-24 hours: #Maria will be crossing a pool of very warm water with practically zero wind shear. 80°F sea temps go down ~300ft.
https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/910111311778009088
Images below.

From the 5 AM Advisory: probability of hurricane conditions as high as 83% in St. Croix, 80% in Vieques, and 75% in San Juan PR. #Maria
https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/910110196348964865
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1019 on: September 19, 2017, 02:17:32 PM »
Cloud altitudes in Hurricane #Maria a few hours ago, derived from @OxfordPhysics' ORAC algorithm.
Satellite data from @NASA.
https://twitter.com/simon_rp84/status/910103190674296832

55000 feet = 16,764 meters
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1020 on: September 19, 2017, 02:23:39 PM »
Last evening:

The big swells from #Jose have arrived at Buoy 44009 located 25 miles SE of Cape May NJ.
https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/910020143899590657

#HurricaneJose surf putting on a good show for tourists in Hereford's Inlet this eve in North Wildwood NJ tonight!
https://twitter.com/zeke_o/status/909913698663370753
Video at the link.
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A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1021 on: September 19, 2017, 02:56:52 PM »
Quote
In all fairness, the NHC kept discussed the possibility of rapid intensification for Maria and said it would not be surprising at all.
Agree. My sense also is that near-real time hurricane prediction products have been doing rather well. If they've already picked the low-hanging fruit and some a bit higher, it's questionable though if much improvement will result from throwing tons more money at models or computer time.

For example, it seems that the lowest central pressure is critical but that cannot be obtained by remote sensing and requires periodic manual dropsondes from airplanes. Harvey went straight at the tip of Florida, the junction of the mainland with the Key West road, so predicting east or west coast was as difficult as saying which way a pencil balanced on its tip is going to fall.

With Maria, all the talk yesterday pm about landfall in Puerto Rico yet today it is projected to glance off, going to the north with the highest winds in the NE corner well off the island. That's a subtle but critical flaw in track prediction (assuming the GFS or ECMWF happens) because Maria would have very much have weakened over land.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 07:38:38 PM by A-Team »

AbruptSLR

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1022 on: September 19, 2017, 06:56:40 PM »
Here is a Windy forecast of the locations of Jose and Maria on Sept 26 2017; and while they both largely miss the Eastern Seaboard, they are clearly telecommunicating significant amount of tropical energy into northern latitudes.  If enough hurricanes follow this pathway we could see an associated acceleration of Arctic Amplification:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1023 on: September 19, 2017, 07:02:55 PM »
Scribbler has a nice piece on Maria's jump to a CAT 5 hurricane:

Title: "Hellish Intensification — Maria’s Winds Jump 50 mph to CAT 5 Strength in Just 12 Hours"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/19/hellish-intensification-marias-winds-jump-50-mph-to-cat-5-strength-in-just-12-hours/

Extract: "A special statement from the National Hurricane Center reports that Maria has reached Category 5 intensity — with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph and a minimum central pressure of 924 mb. This is, perhaps, one of the most rapid intensifications the Atlantic basin has ever seen — with the storm seeing a 40 mb drop in pressure in approximately 6 hours and crossing the Category 4 threshold to Cat 5 intensity in even less time."
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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1024 on: September 19, 2017, 07:33:38 PM »
A cursory search of the ASIF seems to suggest that this paper (from earlier this year) hasn't been mentioned yet:

Emanuel, Kerry.  2017.  Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?  BAMS, Mar. 2017, 495-501.

Quote
Hurricane track forecasts have improved steadily over the past few decades, yet forecasting hurricane intensity remains challenging. Of special concern are the rare instances of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall, catching forecasters and populations off guard, thereby risking large casualties. Here, we review two historical examples of such events and use scaling arguments and models to show that rapid intensification just before landfall is likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms.
Anecdotally at least, that sure seems to be what's happening this year.  And via Twitter, Zeke Hausfather has made a nice chart showing a big decrease in the time from Cat 1 -> Cat 5:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKGPz4aU8AAbwsa.jpg

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1025 on: September 19, 2017, 08:55:27 PM »
Another strong earthquake in Mexico.  Magnitude 7.1, southeast of Mexico City.  Many places had held earthquake drills today for the anniversary of the major 1985 quake that struck there.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mexico-city-earthquake-09-19-2017/


Edit:  video of facade falling from building in Mexico City.  Metro Etiopía is a metro station there.

#TenemosSismo  @AristeguiOnline #RT COMPARTAN #SISMO esto es en metro Etiopía @STCMetroGDF
https://twitter.com/Lobillo_feroz/status/910208849591902208
Video at the link.

Video sent to @CKNW shows dust clouds rising in #Mexico City following 7.1 #earthquake
https://twitter.com/DuranCKNW980/status/910218488857296896
Video at the link.

Edit: second image.
From: https://twitter.com/arturoangel20/status/910214505958903808
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 09:12:05 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1026 on: September 19, 2017, 09:17:35 PM »
Suomi-NPP #VIIRS high res view of Cat 5 Hurricane #Maria moving NW away from #Dominica. Note gravity waves rippling out from the eye.
https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/910217037426851845
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1027 on: September 19, 2017, 09:28:13 PM »
Serious question:  Was there a hurricane in the Caribbean or East Pacific on or around September 19, 1985?

7.1 Earthquake in Mexico City. This is outside terminal 2 at Mexico City Airport
https://twitter.com/conecora1/status/910214143323643905
Image below.  Front wheels of car have fallen into a crevice that has opened in the pavement.

Roads around Terminal 2 at Mexico City International Airport are damaged. Flights diverting
https://twitter.com/FlightAlerts777/status/910220179828854785
Another image of the road damage at the link.

Se derrumba edificio en Alvaro Obregón, Condesa, CDMX
Huele a gas. Personas heridas salen del lugar
Bing translation:  Building collapses in Álvaro Obregón, Countess, CDMX smells gas. Injured persons out of the place
https://twitter.com/RuidoEnLaRed/status/910208627268575232
Video at the link.

Edit:
The @USGS PAGER estimating 100-1000 fatalities and $100M-1B in damage from Mexico's 7.1 quake today.
https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/910223690603876352
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 09:46:02 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1028 on: September 19, 2017, 09:35:46 PM »
Low earth orbit (~250 miles, 400 km) is not far enough away to see all of Maria very well....  :o

Station cameras captured dramatic views of Hurricane Maria as it churned through Caribbean Sept. 19 as a category 5 storm.
https://twitter.com/Space_Station/status/910223646702088193
Video at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1029 on: September 19, 2017, 09:43:24 PM »
Bill Karins:  I told cashier at grocery store about Mexico City earthquake. She said "ever since that eclipse everything going crazy." I couldn't argue
https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/910217887796908032
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oren

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1030 on: September 19, 2017, 09:44:38 PM »
Hurricane Hunters have just found flight level winds of 155kt, or ~180mph in the N-NE eyewall. Expecting an intensity bump up in NHC update.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/910203321457217537

A-Team

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1031 on: September 20, 2017, 12:19:17 AM »
These wind field maps are an interesting use of color for magnitude and meteo widgets instead of vector arrows. Note the route of the plane in lower left as it transects can be inferred though not the times. The satellite IR overlay mentioned in bottom left seems to be missing. There must be a need for regular observational wind speeds input into tracking models that isn't being met by doppler radar or sonar.

jai mitchell

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1032 on: September 20, 2017, 02:05:08 AM »
Haiku of Futures Passed
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1033 on: September 20, 2017, 02:33:37 AM »
8pm update.  Could not be worse....

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING CLOSER TO ST CROIX IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL
FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 64.2 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night.  On the
forecast track, the eye of Maria will move near or over St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight, cross Puerto Rico on Wednesday,
and then pass just north of the coast of the Dominican Republic
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Maria is a potentially catastrophic category
5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane as it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico.
  Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over
the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 909 mb (26.84 inches).
...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/192357.shtml?

« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 02:44:44 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1034 on: September 20, 2017, 02:39:09 AM »
#Maria now the strongest storm of 2017 with a pressure down to 909hpa.  The last storm to get a pressure that low was Dean in a decade ago.
https://twitter.com/WHEC_RSPETA/status/910298704749395970
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1035 on: September 20, 2017, 02:42:20 AM »
BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 58A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...HURRICANE JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...
...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/192338.shtml?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1036 on: September 20, 2017, 03:00:18 AM »
They don't make hurricanes much stronger than #Maria is right now. Satellite presentation the most robust yet. (loop via @UWSSEC)
https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/910304713417084928
IR satellite loop at the link.

Image below from Weather Underground's Storm app.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1037 on: September 20, 2017, 03:14:43 AM »
Serious question:  Was there a hurricane in the Caribbean or East Pacific on or around September 19, 1985?

7.1 Earthquake in Mexico City. This is outside terminal 2 at Mexico City Airport
https://twitter.com/conecora1/status/910214143323643905
Image below.  Front wheels of car have fallen into a crevice that has opened in the pavement.

<snip>

Answering my own question (about the possibility of a hurricane occurring around the time of the great Sept 19, 1985 Mexico City earthquake):
Powerful Hurricane Gloria was headed across the Atlantic on Sept 19, 1985 -- although it did not intensify into a hurricane until September 22, north of the Lesser Antilles.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1038 on: September 20, 2017, 03:22:41 AM »
Cool!

Watch the seismic waves from the #MexicoCityearthquake cross the US
http://ds.iris.edu/ds/products/usarraygmv/

https://twitter.com/iris_epo/status/910297850927607808
Video at the link.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1039 on: September 20, 2017, 03:52:45 AM »
Seen on an overflight of St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands, last weekend.

Hurricane survivor writes ‘SEND TESLA’ with the debris of destroyed home
https://electrek.co/2017/09/19/tesla-hurricane-survivor-writes-send-tesla/
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nicibiene

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1040 on: September 20, 2017, 07:31:19 AM »
Quote
Answering my own question (about the possibility of a hurricane occurring around the time of the great Sept 19, 1985 Mexico City earthquake):
Powerful Hurricane Gloria was headed across the Atlantic on Sept 19, 1985 -- although it did not intensify into a hurricane until September 22, north of the Lesser Antilles.

Very interesting connection-just digged in Wikipedia: additionally to Gloria occured another tropical depression Henri northwards! Maybe a compairable situation....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Atlantic_hurricane_season

If you imagine that huge amount of water getting piled up there-just look at the dry beaches caused by Irmas power. Think that movement of water masses could trigger earthquakes like that...  :o
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 11:39:37 AM by nicibiene »
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morganism

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1041 on: September 20, 2017, 10:26:16 AM »
Interesting, didn't know all the pharma research companies were there. They must have generators....

https://annexx51.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/puerto-rico-map-pharmaceutical-companies.jpg

morganism

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1042 on: September 20, 2017, 10:43:27 AM »
San Juan PR radar

http://www.weather.gov/sju/


Only one still updating tonight

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp

Guy on the ground not getting updates out now

https://twitter.com/iCyclone
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 12:23:45 PM by morganism »

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1043 on: September 20, 2017, 01:39:23 PM »
Long-term consequences of Irma and Maria.

One thing I never thought of was that the US Virgin Islands Government and economy is totally broke.
I also totally forgot about that enormous (though currently in mothballs) oil terminal and refinery. What a place to put a massive refinery.

One wonders what the future holds after Irma and now Maria.

http://stthomassource.com/content/2017/04/10/the-v-i-budget-crisis-how-did-we-get-here-how-do-we-get-out/
Part 1 of a Series on The V.I. Budget Crisis

The V.I. government is at a crossroads. Along with this year’s $110 million deficit, the USVI is facing ongoing structural deficits of around $170 million per year out of a locally funded budget of around $850 million. It has outstanding debt of more than $2 billion, not counting the debts of the government-owned Water and Power Authority, which is also facing serious financial problems. It is also facing a $3 billion unfunded pension liability and a pension plan projected to cease being able to pay full pensions by 2023. And for the first time, after two rounds of ratings downgrades in less than a year, lenders have refused to buy V.I. government bonds, making it very difficult to smooth over the gaps.

Limetree Bay Terminals, LLC (LB Terminals) is the new owner of the former Hovensa oil terminal at Limetree Bay, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands.

LB Terminals is committed to continuing the site’s legacy of safe and environmentally sound practices. LB Terminals employees and contractors make both Safety and Environmental Stewardship the first requirement of every activity.

The LB Terminals facility consists of approximately 32 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum product storage, idled refinery units with total peak processing capacity of 650 thousand barrels per day, a deep-water port with 10 petroleum docks, 1 bulk product dock, six tug boats, and various associated equipment and inventory.

http://viconsortium.com/business/st-croix-not-ready-for-amount-of-jobs-sinopec-will-bring-oil-refining-at-limetree-bay-a-great-possibility-mapp-says/

ST. THOMAS, GOVERNMENT HOUSE — Governor Kenneth Mapp on Tuesday revealed details of his China delegation trip that he says will transform the economy of St. Croix in the coming years, estimating that Sinopec — a leading AA-rated Chinese state oil company traded in Hong Kong, Shanghai and New York worth about $1.5 trillion, through its stake in the former HOVENSA refinery with ArcLight Partners, LLC — will bring hundreds of jobs to the Big Island through major investments in the south shore facility, including a substantial increase in oil storage and, importantly, oil refining.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1044 on: September 20, 2017, 02:59:28 PM »
You couldn't hit Puerto Rico more squarely. #Maria is centered directly on top of the island. First Category 4 there since 1932.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/910484467231358976
Image below.

The eye of #Maria continues to move over Puerto Rico after making landfall at 6:15 AM local time as a Category 4 hurricane.
https://twitter.com/severestudios/status/910484452849184769
IR satellite GIF at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1045 on: September 20, 2017, 03:03:38 PM »
Just one of many scenes of flooding ongoing now in PR.
    https://twitter.com/WeatherFlowCHAS/status/910484329163378688
AHORA: Urbanizacion Quintas de Canovanas, tras Rio Grande de Loiza salirse de su cauce. Observe los buzones florando!
https://twitter.com/ivettesosaT2/status/910462985361088514
First image below.

The ferocious wind is incredible, but the rain is coming in buckets. Huge and dangerous flood threat as rivers rapidly rise. #Maria #MariaPR
     https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/910485506433183745
The river gauges across Puerto Rico are all going straight up toward record flooding with a lot of rain yet to come. #Maria
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/910477703891087360
Second image below.


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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1046 on: September 20, 2017, 03:09:38 PM »
Unusual not to hear from Josh in 4 hours. All means of communication must be down.

Inusual no escuchar de este "storm chaser" en 4 horas.
     https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/910484743686283265

4:30 am. Building groaning. Airplane sounds. Pressure falling like a rock. 967 mb #MARIA @WeatherNation
https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/910424719609929728



Our continuously-updated #Maria summary, including the latest winds, surge, #flood reports and where #Maria is headed next...
     https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/910485158150754310

100+ mph winds are lashing Puerto Rico and additional #hurricane warnings have been issued.
[The Weather Channel's] Full #Maria forecast:  https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-maria-category-5-leeward-islands-virgin-islands-puerto-rico.html
     https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/910484869720842242


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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1047 on: September 20, 2017, 04:11:12 PM »
Quote
The eye of Maria came ashore near the town of Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, around 6:15 a.m. AST Wednesday as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

The eyewall of Maria continues to carve through Puerto Rico, passing just south San Juan, lashing the capital with eyewall winds. In advance of the eyewall, the National Weather Service issued a "extreme wind warnings" for several eastern Puerto Rico municipalities.
https://weather.com/amp/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-maria-category-5-leeward-islands-virgin-islands-puerto-rico.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1048 on: September 20, 2017, 04:31:28 PM »
In the linked article Scribbler not only discusses hurricane Maria, but also points out that the Accumulated Cyclone Energy for 2017 to date has been well above the climatology (see the attached image):

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/09/19/catastrophic-category-5-maria-strengthens-as-it-tracks-toward-puerto-rico/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Reply #1049 on: September 20, 2017, 05:53:36 PM »
Houston, Texas.  No surprise here if you've been following the Hurricane 2017 thread.

Houston FEMA flood map missed 75 percent of flood damages, says new study
Quote
Researchers examined flood damage claims from several southeast Houston suburbs between 1999 to 2009 and found that FEMA's flood predictive maps failed to show 75 percent of flood damage.

"The takeaway from this study, which was borne out in Harvey, is that many losses occur in areas outside FEMA's 100-year flood plain," said study co-author Antonia Sebastian in a prepared statement.

According to researchers, three in four flood damage claims flew under the radar during the 10 year period because they didn't reach the 100-year event threshold. In other words, short and intense rainfall events may not be reflected on FEMA's 100-year flood plain map.

For example, Sebastian said an area that receives 13.5 inches of rain in 24 hours might be counted by FEMA, but not an area that receives 6 inches of rain in only a few hours, despite causing serious flooding. ...
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/Houston-FEMA-flood-map-missed-75-percent-of-flood-12212943.php
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