May I speculate that you just recently learned about the bathymetry of the Arctic Ocean and implications on oceanic inflows and outflows... and you changed your mind about blue ocean events just as recently? See below (sorry for doing this but couldn't help after you mentioning again the curve I plotted above, that does NOT represent any minimum extent in particular:-/ ).
Edit. By the way I discussed about this last year mentioning an Arctic Sea Ice News article
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg84116.html#msg84116
You may want to read the article, as it is out of the question bathymetry has a large influence.... (but inconclusive, as I am because it is a very complicated matter... maybe we will learn something this year).
Edit edit. And even more interesting this response by Bill Fothergill
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg84153.html#msg84153
And this by Rob Dekker
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg84140.html#msg84140
seaicesailor:
1. Yes, I wrote that about this season, but I was already convinced that there is not enough energy from insolation alone to melt out all Central Arctic areas where the weather is cold, the pack is closed until August and the warm currents, whether from the Atlantic Ocean or from the Pacific Ocean, do not reach such high latitudes. In any case, when I wrote that I was also thinking on Fram Export event as occurred in 2007. During that summer, export was non-stop, in opposition to what usually happens in most summers. If this summer is warm and also the export continues, we may see a new record far exceeding the previous one. Happy?
2. The article you mention does not but confirm my positions as well as Bill Fothergill's comments and (in part) Rob Dekker.
3. The Canada Basin is a more special place. For example, thanks to the Beaufort Gyre that rotates on top of it, upwelling currents happen along the coast of Canada and Alaska and the Chukchi Sea. The upward flows can transport Atlantic water from the abyss through the layers of Atlantic and Pacific halocline and mix it up with the mixed layer. The article RoxTheGeologist links to mentions it. There are also many eddies created by instabilities of currents that always appear at the slopes of the continental shelf. Also mentioned in the article. This makes the Beaufort Sea a very dynamic sea in summer, where melting can continue at high pace, in which differences in salt content and temperature can arise from the most unexpected places. The melting is also supported by frequent warm air intrusions from the continent, and the albedo feedback mechanism. However, the Beaufort Sea ice used to survive the summer in the 20th Century. Is it not surprising that on top of the whole Canada Basin that ice was able to survive? Global warming means that the Multi Year Ice no longer survives in the Beaufort Sea.
4. In any case, I reaffirm my position. Not that this denies anything. I simply think the AGW progresses slowly and, as the Canada Basin is now free of ice when it was not the case 20 years ago, the same will happen with the other basins. But I'm not sure if I will get to see it, unless perfect conditions happen as what I implied in January and in paragraph 1 of this comment.
Apologies for the lengthy answer