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Author Topic: Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice  (Read 947 times)

woodstea

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Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« on: June 15, 2017, 09:43:10 PM »
We just had a few posts in the IJIS topic about hoping for zero Arctic sea ice, or at least for record low sea ice extent this year. Do those of you who vote for a record low on September daily minimum polls hope that you're right? When there are several century drops in a row, do you get excited?

Having read these forums for many years, I have often seen what appears to be enthusiasm about big extent drops. People add "of course I'm hoping this won't happen", but this often doesn't seem to match the emotion in what they were saying originally. It's like that "not that there's anything wrong with that" line from Seinfeld.

"Look at ECMWF 00Z +48!! The ice is going to be devastated! Of course that would be terrible..."

What's behind that? My take on it from the IJIS topic:

I expect there will eventually come a time where the number of climate change deniers will dwindle to the point where they're essentially irrelevant, like the flat earthers. I would love to think that we could reach that point earlier rather than later, maybe because some event like an ice-free North Pole some year soon would convince certain prominent voices among them to change their minds.

It's a thin hope, but I think it's behind why some part of me roots for a record low extent each year.

Neven

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Re: Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2017, 10:58:48 PM »
I wrote about that back when I started the Blog, exactly 7 years and 1 day ago: To melt or not to melt: the Alarmist's Dilemma
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Juan C. García

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Re: Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2017, 03:25:01 AM »
I wrote about that back when I started the Blog, exactly 7 years and 1 day ago: To melt or not to melt: the Alarmist's Dilemma


Great deliberation, Neven. I had not read this article before...
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Fairbanksnchill

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Re: Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2017, 05:16:56 AM »
It is not a lack of empathy or Schadenfreude.
There is a palpable level of frustration about the lack of interest in climate mitigation in the US.
With the Heritage foundation, Breitbart, and Donald Trump actively subverting efforts, it appears to me that something significant and undeniable needs to happen to wake people up.

When my grandmother finally had a minor stroke it was horrible, but at least she finally quit smoking. I didn't want her to die, but she was absolutely actively killing herself and it took that stroke to change her life for the better. She live another 15 years.

Pmt111500

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Re: Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2017, 08:32:49 AM »
I've been wishing weather related adversities and disasters to deniers, as they want to hurt nature and fellow human beings. But wishing a new record for a 10th of the planet is another matter, that will hurt also innocents, animals, plants, and eventually innocent humans too. The guilty deniers affected have probably flewn to another location to spit out their lies and misrepresentation by this time, to spoil another tenth of thebplanet.
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

meljay14

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Re: Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2017, 08:53:19 AM »
It's not logical or justifiable, but I do hope for it sometimes. Best I can analyse the feeling is that it's like when you know you are going to throw up, you want it to happen ASAP because you know delaying it won't make it feel any better, so why not get it over with?

I know this doesn't make sense in relation to Arctic Sea Ice.

Meljay

oren

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Re: Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2017, 11:00:56 AM »
Some idle thoughts:
To avoid the depression associated with many current long-term processes, most headed to hell, one must learn to compartmentalise, and reduce the level of emotion. Watching millions committing social suicide (in my country and elsewhere)  and billions committing natural suicide (globally) I watch in horrified fascination.
On a rational level, I prefer the process to be as slow as possible. But I bet the boy who cried wolf was elated for a short moment when the big wolf actually came. And there's always the slim hope that enough people would wake up.

OrganicSu

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Re: Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2017, 12:18:04 PM »
I do not hope that we see a blue Arctic this year, or any other year.

It seems to me that many people on this forum believe that it would help wake people up and thereby help humanity reduce the future impact of AGW. I disagree. How many catastrophic events happen daily that can be linked to AGW? What actual action does it generally lead to? Rebuilding and replacement of what was destroyed thereby reinforcing the path we are on. A blue Arctic is a dud event and will get little press time - a photo of some water doesn't sell papers. No-one I know off this forum will spend more than a few conversations discussing it, fewer will discuss it's implications, fewer still will seek societal change to try to get the Arctic back and will anyone actually stop or reduce their own actions to reduce their emittance of GHG's after a blue Arctic?

If there is a single person on this forum who will significantly reduce their GHG emissions after a blue Arctic event, please stand up and be counted. My only other question is...
Why wait?

oren

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Re: Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2017, 12:21:20 PM »
Some idle thoughts:
To avoid the depression associated with many current long-term processes, most headed to hell, one must learn to compartmentalise, and reduce the level of emotion. With millions committing collective social suicide (in my country and elsewhere)  and billions committing collective natural suicide (globally) I watch in horrified fascination.
On a rational level, I prefer the process to be as slow as possible. But I bet the boy who cried wolf was elated for a short moment when the big wolf actually came. And there's always the slim hope that enough people would wake up.

pileus

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Re: Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« Reply #9 on: June 16, 2017, 04:47:42 PM »
I do not hope that we see a blue Arctic this year, or any other year.

It seems to me that many people on this forum believe that it would help wake people up and thereby help humanity reduce the future impact of AGW. I disagree. How many catastrophic events happen daily that can be linked to AGW? What actual action does it generally lead to? Rebuilding and replacement of what was destroyed thereby reinforcing the path we are on. A blue Arctic is a dud event and will get little press time - a photo of some water doesn't sell papers. No-one I know off this forum will spend more than a few conversations discussing it, fewer will discuss it's implications, fewer still will seek societal change to try to get the Arctic back and will anyone actually stop or reduce their own actions to reduce their emittance of GHG's after a blue Arctic?

If there is a single person on this forum who will significantly reduce their GHG emissions after a blue Arctic event, please stand up and be counted. My only other question is...
Why wait?

+1

No one in their right mind with awareness of the eventual global implications of losing ASI would want this process to accelerate.  While media has become more sophisticated and available via social media platforms, as you say it will be a dud in terms of net impact.  But it will certainly play as a big story for a few days.  I would expect an equal or greater emphasis on how fossil fuel interests and govts intend to exploit the Arctic for more resources.

Also, attention spans of the general public are short, and when the thin layer of refreeze asserts after the first ice free September, people will quickly move on to something else.  Fiddling whilst Rome burns, or in this case as the planet roasts.

IMeretricious

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Re: Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« Reply #10 on: June 16, 2017, 06:28:47 PM »
Personally, I'm hoping an ocean completely free of ice for hundreds of km around the North Pole soon. There's nothing like a dramatic image to inspire action. I'm picturing something like an aerial shot of a sailboat with blue water all around leaving a candy-striped pole-shaped buoy bouncing in the chuck.

And I don't see it happening without an ice-free or almost ice-free minimum, unfortunately.

ritter

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Re: Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« Reply #11 on: June 16, 2017, 07:52:47 PM »
There is a part of me that wishes it would come sooner rather than later. If there is to be a bottleneck (and I think there is), I'd like it to be when I'm still young enough to work toward ensuring my daughter comes out the other end. Then there's the other part of me that says, what the fuck are you thinking?!  ;D

In reality, it will come when it comes. In the meantime, I make do with working on climate adaptation in my community to the extent I have time/energy (both in short supply the last year). It's the best I can do when living in one world while trying to prepare for the next world (climate in which no human has ever lived).

Archimid

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Re: Paradoxically hoping for record low Arctic sea ice
« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2017, 04:11:25 AM »
  Saying something will happen does not mean one hopes that something happen. This happens to me a lot. For example the election. Many times I discussed the US elections with someone and I told them that I thought Trump would win, they would think I was crazy because I wanted Trump to win. That was not true at all. I didn't want Trump to win, but I honestly thought the political climate favored him.

  I could have done like most people and just say my candidate would win even if I thought he might lose. In my experience that's what most people do with good reasons.  Saying your candidate will win might become a self fulfilling prophesy because people flock to whoever they perceive as winners. But I simply don't like that. If the knowledge I've gathered tells me one candidate will win, then I'll say that. I won't pretend my preferred candidate will win to help gather momentum.  I find that dishonest and counterproductive in the long term.

  It is the same with the Arctic. It terrifies me to think of the consequences of a blue ocean event. In my opinion the crazy weather happening all over the planet is just the beginning of what will happen once the ice is gone. I expect rain bombs lasting weeks or months, heat waves that wipes out countries, hail that wipe out crops, unimaginable droughts, local mini ice ages and other nasty things. I really don't want this to happen, but at the same time I believe it is already happening. It is just a matter of months(worst case) or a few years before the first BOE.

  To be honest, in a way, I do hope the BOE happens soon, but only in the same way a soldier wishes to get the battle over with, even if they feel fear of the oncoming battle.  I also confess to feeling a perverse sense of justice. The deniers will suffer from this calamity just as much as everyone else, including me. I know I harbor these feelings, but I'm not proud of them and they are not logical. A BOE will be catastrophic.

But feelings are feelings and there is not much one can do about them except for channeling them productively.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.