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What will the NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average be?

Between 5.0 and 5.5 million km2
1 (0.9%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km2
2 (1.8%)
Between 4.5 and 5.0 million km2
6 (5.4%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km2
8 (7.1%)
Between 4.0 and 4.5 million km2
19 (17%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km2
19 (17%)
Between 3.5 and 4.0 million km2
14 (12.5%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km2
18 (16.1%)
Between 3.0 and 3.5 million km2
8 (7.1%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km2
3 (2.7%)
Between 2.5 and 3.0 million km2
3 (2.7%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km2
2 (1.8%)
Between 2.0 and 2.5 million km2
2 (1.8%)
Between 1.75 and 2.25 million km2
1 (0.9%)
Between 1.5 and 2.0 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 1.25 and 1.75 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 1.0 and 1.5 million km2
2 (1.8%)
Between 0.75 and 1.25 million km2
2 (1.8%)
Between 0.5 and 1.0 million km2
1 (0.9%)
Between 0.25 and 0.75 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 0 and 0.5 million km2
1 (0.9%)

Total Members Voted: 112

Voting closed: July 12, 2017, 12:46:08 PM

Author Topic: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll  (Read 2399 times)

Neven

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NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« on: July 01, 2017, 12:46:08 PM »
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by ADS, previously by IJIS). Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting. You can discuss various extent/area data sets in this dedicated thread.

-----

This NSIDC extent poll will run for 11 days (until July 12th). Until then you can change your vote. Here are the results for the June poll. There will be a new poll next month.

Here's how things are currently looking based on data up to June 30th:



These are the September averages for the last 12 years (in millions km2, found here):

    2005: 5.59
    2006: 5.95
    2007: 4.32
    2008: 4.74
    2009: 5.39
    2010: 4.93
    2011: 4.63
    2012: 3.63
    2013: 5.35
    2014: 5.29
    2015: 4.68
    2016: 4.72

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various SIE/SIA data sets in this dedicated thread.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2017, 11:20:57 PM by Neven »
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Lord M Vader

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2017, 12:48:26 PM »
I was first to vote! :D Voted for 4,5-5,0 Mn km2.

magnamentis

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2017, 12:57:05 PM »
my vote: Between 3.5 and 4.0 million km2
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2017, 12:59:10 PM »
I'm the last to vote (so far  ;D)  All 6 votes are in different bins (mine lowest). [Edit: I'm not lowest anymore, and several bins have multiple votes.]
« Last Edit: July 01, 2017, 02:11:22 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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oren

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2017, 01:02:58 PM »
I'm the first to join a bin already voted for.  8)

Neven

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2017, 01:08:16 PM »
I have voted between 4.0 and 4.5 million km2, like I did last month. I might change it, depending on what happens.
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echoughton

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2017, 01:18:15 PM »
I'm with Lord V...4.5-5 Similar to last year, but I believe the increased snow will help it come in just under 5

Jim Pettit

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2017, 01:26:47 PM »
I have voted between 4.0 and 4.5 million km2, like I did last month. I might change it, depending on what happens.

Same here. If 2017 were to follow the average trajectory over the past ten years from today forward, the average this September would be 4.28M (IJIS) or 4.24M (NSIDC). I looked at that, then dropped one bin further just because 2017 hasn't yet had its expected cliff-diving moment.

Paddy

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2017, 01:37:11 PM »
Going to wait for the Piomas update before I pick, but I expect I'll be adjusting my vote upwards.

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2017, 04:01:18 PM »
Between 3.5 and 4.0 million km2.
Kind of even with 2012.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Neven

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2017, 04:01:38 PM »
This month's JAXA SIE daily minimum poll has been posted by Juan as well.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2017, 07:51:23 PM »
Sticking at 4.25-4.75

Nothing that happened in June made me stop thinking 2017 will be all that different from 2016 come September.

epiphyte

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2017, 08:07:04 PM »
I'm guessing 3.25-3.75  - Tempted to go higher though - mainly because I think that in Sep there might be greater than usual overlap between continuing melt in some areas and refreeze in others.

gerontocrat

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2017, 09:38:50 PM »
For those who look at JAXA data a lot, just to note that over the last 10 years the NSIDC Sept average extent has been greater than the JAXA daily minimum extent by an average of 0.40 million km2.

icefisher

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2017, 09:44:11 PM »
Extent 4.0 - 4.1.  Volume lowest ever.  Nothing but slush and ice cubes as far as the eye can see.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #15 on: July 01, 2017, 11:10:20 PM »
Based on Oren's Arctic Ocean volume graph, record low volume, which could reach a tipping point (collapse), and the crumbling nature of the ice, I have changed my view now, and opted to go for record low this September.
Between 3 and 3.5
Oren's Arctic Ocean volume graph:
---> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg118389.html#msg118389

cesium62

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2017, 11:22:18 PM »
Sticking at 4.25-4.75

Nothing that happened in June made me stop thinking 2017 will be all that different from 2016 come September.


Did anything happen in June of 2012 that made you think 2012 would be different than 2016 come September?

: Jim Petit
Same here. If 2017 were to follow the average trajectory over the past ten years from today forward, the average this September would be 4.28M (IJIS) or 4.24M (NSIDC). I looked at that, then dropped one bin further just because 2017 hasn't yet had its expected cliff-diving moment.


With steadily increasing temperatures, we would expect 2017 to be below the average trajectory of the past 10 years.

The Slater Probabilistic Sea Ice Extent Graph shows a relatively sharp bounce in the predicted mid-August extent, which suggests to me that conditions this year are sufficiently abnormal that tools which worked well in the past are having a hard time with this year.

My takeaway from 2012 is that the weather is rather important.  The ice is looking crappier than usual, so typical weather should put us somewhat below 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2016.  But if a big storm blows through in August, it will easily disperse the ice to the South.  The big storm is over-due.  3.5 +/- 0.25.

But...
« Last Edit: July 01, 2017, 11:29:00 PM by cesium62 »

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2017, 11:54:09 PM »
I had been following area for years on CT so I have little experience beyond last year even caring what the extent measurements were . That they could be a couple of million higher than area left me bemused .. My area minimum prediction would be around 1 million Km2 so I guess my extent prediction by this measure should be around 3-3.5m .
 What ever the weather , I feel this will continue to be an interesting melt season . I still feel that the past winter will play a major role in the end of season analysis . At this stage of the season I am observing .. and absorbing some .. of the great posts and discussions on this forum . Thanks Neven .. for bringing us together in the Now of weather !
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Reallybigbunny

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #18 on: July 01, 2017, 11:58:46 PM »
Just waiting for a big fat high pressure system to come sit over the arctic for a week or so... 3 - 3.5  8)

jdallen

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #19 on: July 02, 2017, 05:01:34 AM »
3.75-4.25
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #20 on: July 02, 2017, 11:25:41 AM »
Sticking at 4.25-4.75

Nothing that happened in June made me stop thinking 2017 will be all that different from 2016 come September.

Did anything happen in June of 2012 that made you think 2012 would be different than 2016 come September?

Much greater momentum in 2012. The momentum of June 2012 was huge.

greatdying2

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #21 on: July 02, 2017, 11:40:47 AM »
3.25 to 3.75

Up from 3 to 3.5 last month only because I discovered that this vote is not for the minimum, but rather for the September average. Lots of thin ice. The next few weeks will be interesting.

meddoc

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #22 on: July 02, 2017, 12:45:03 PM »
Will first analyze the dynamics unfolding in the next 10 days  :o

DavidR

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #23 on: July 02, 2017, 02:56:04 PM »
I've moved to  3.75-4.25 for the average.  I  think we will see a record for the daily minimum but like last year it  could be a rapid late plunge, with  lots of well spread ice, rather than a long  leisurely  time at the bottom.

Paddy

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #24 on: July 02, 2017, 11:31:19 PM »
I may yet change my mind with the next piomas update, but for now I'm going 4.25 to 4.75. This embraces the 2nd through 6th lowest years, which seems fairly likely territory without a major melting event.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #25 on: July 03, 2017, 12:50:18 AM »
Based on this I have revised upward my guesstimate to 3.5-4.0
---> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg119231.html#msg119231
I still think the icepack is pretty trashy and vulnerable, so still estimating low.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2017, 12:55:29 AM by Thomas Barlow »

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #26 on: July 03, 2017, 04:53:49 PM »
Hello. I too am in the ample group that believes that this year's melting season may end somewhere above 2012 and below 2007. Up from last poll, to 3.75 - 4.25 million

Paddy

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #27 on: July 06, 2017, 05:39:56 PM »
Going down a bin to 4.0 - 4.5

SteveMDFP

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #28 on: July 08, 2017, 12:46:15 AM »
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km2
What Cesium62 said

Steven

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #29 on: July 08, 2017, 03:53:37 PM »
Some updated forecasts for the September 2017 NSIDC sea ice extent:

(1) Alek Petty's forecast is  4.5 +/- 0.3 M km2,  which is somewhat lower than the forecast he made last month.  link.

(2) Lars Kaleschke's forecast is  4.15 +/- 0.45 M km2, slightly higher than his forecast last month.  link.

(3) Rob Dekker's forecast is 5.41 +/- 0.34 M km2, basically the same as his forecast last month.  link.

(4) David Schroeder et al.'s forecast is 5.1 +/- 0.44 M km2, basically the same as last month. link.

(5) The method I used in last month's ASIF poll would give 4.4 +/- 0.4 M km2 using late-June data.  That is slightly higher than last month.

gerontocrat

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #30 on: July 09, 2017, 03:20:11 PM »
I went for 4.25 to 4.75 million km2.

My reasoning(?) was:-

My Jaxa data analysis of SIE daily minimum has been stuck on about 4 million km2 for over a month (and more than half the melt has happened), and the average difference over the last 10 years between that and the NSIDC September average is +0.40 million km2.

But :-
Ocean heat content?,
Low volume ?
Low thickness ?
The weather ?

Juan C. García

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #31 on: July 10, 2017, 06:37:23 PM »
I went up, from 3.5-4 to 3.75-4.25.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

EgalSust

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #32 on: July 11, 2017, 12:40:07 AM »
Voted 4.5-5.0 following Slater et al June prediction.

Archimid

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #33 on: July 11, 2017, 10:43:04 PM »
I went up to 3.5 to 4.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

slow wing

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #34 on: July 11, 2017, 11:09:22 PM »
I voted 3.0-3.5 million square kilometres.

I think the day minimum has more physical significance than the monthly one (what is the physical significance of a month?  ;) ) so I just added 0.5 to my prediction in the day poll, where I explained my reasoning/guessing.

magnamentis

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #35 on: July 11, 2017, 11:14:16 PM »
@slow wing

(what is the physical significance of a month?  ;) )

either reconsider this (think again) or read it up online, matter off factly it's exactly the other way around the shorter the period the less significance when it comes to how meaningful that value is.
at least and always if we want to talk about changes of usually very long term states and usually very slow events.

i know it's OT but that-one stuck out to me.
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EgalSust

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Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« Reply #36 on: July 13, 2017, 08:45:31 PM »
Poll is closed, right?

Median prediction was between 3.5 and 4 Mkm², up a basket from June.