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What will JAXA (ADS or NIPR) 2017 ASI September daily minimum be?

Above 5.25  million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km2
13 (10.6%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km2
20 (16.3%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km2
19 (15.4%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km2
12 (9.8%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km2
18 (14.6%)
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km2
14 (11.4%)
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km2
5 (4.1%)
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km2
4 (3.3%)
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km2
3 (2.4%)
Between 1.75 and 2.25 million km2
3 (2.4%)
Between 1.50 and 2.00 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 1.25 and 1.75 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 1.00 and 1.50 million km2
2 (1.6%)
Between 0.75 and 1.25 million km2
4 (3.3%)
Between 0.50 and 1.00 million km2
1 (0.8%)
Between 0.25 and 0.75 million km2
0 (0%)
Between 0.00 and 0.50 million km2
1 (0.8%)

Total Members Voted: 123

Voting closed: July 12, 2017, 03:44:07 PM

Author Topic: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll  (Read 3462 times)

Juan C. García

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JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« on: July 01, 2017, 03:44:07 PM »
ATTENTION:  This is the JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by ADS, previously by IJIS).

This JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent (previously released by IJIS, and now by ADS and NIPR) poll will run for 11 days. Until then you can change your vote. There will be a new poll next month.

These are the daily September minimums (in millions km2):

1980's Avg:   7.23
1990's Avg:   6.55
2000's Avg:   5.48
2000:   6.04
2001:   6.55
2002:   5.53
2003:   5.93
2004:   5.68
2005:   5.18
2006:   5.63
2007:   4.07
2008:   4.50
2009:   5.05
2010:   4.62
2011:   4.27
2012:   3.18
2013:   4.81
2014:   4.88
2015:   4.26
2016:   4.02

You can use the comment thread below to motivate your choice, but discuss various JAXA-ADS SIE data sets in this dedicated thread.
You can also see the ADS updated graph here.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2017, 03:52:16 PM »
I am voting in the range 3.00-3.50 km2, that is, on average, a little above 2012, even that it can be a little lower than 2012.
Maybe I will change my vote, when PIOMAS figures get released.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Neven

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2017, 03:58:36 PM »
Thanks for this new poll, Juan. My preliminary vote goes to 'Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km2'.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2017, 04:20:06 PM »
My vote was 4-4,5 Mn km2, mostly due to lack of melt ponds.

oren

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2017, 06:51:04 PM »
3-3.5 mostly due to PIOMAS "preconditioning" of inner basin. As long as extent/area more or less keeps up and inner basin volume is lower, 2017 has a fair chance  of being the next freak year.

seaicesailor

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2017, 07:08:08 PM »
My vote was 4-4,5 Mn km2, mostly due to lack of melt ponds.
Really agree on the lack of melt ponds. Just checked the ASIG page (courtesy of Neven of course) comparing Bremen maps, and there is no year as "dark" in the Arctic proper as 2017, only equaled by 2009 (and then back to 2005).

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0701

Note: Uni Bremen has changed the palette in their maps (it will show as obscure as 100% for a small range near 100%) and as such one cannot compare small loss of concentration with previous years anymore... thanks to sezlobs for noticing it


Of course these are one-day comparisons, but says a lot. Sustained widespread surface melting should show in a one-day map too!

 
« Last Edit: July 06, 2017, 06:03:29 PM by seaicesailor »

icefisher

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2017, 09:29:10 PM »
Somewhere between 2012 and 2016.

magnamentis

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2017, 10:30:10 PM »
my vote: Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km2
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2017, 11:05:29 PM »
Based on Oren's Arctic Ocean volume graph, record low volume, which could reach a tipping point (collapse), and the crumbling nature of the ice, I have changed my view now, and opted to go for record low this September.
Between 2.5 and 3.
Oren's Arctic Ocean volume graph:
---> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg118389.html#msg118389

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2017, 11:09:28 PM »
I said 3.7m from the start so i aint changn not today or ever.

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2017, 04:12:01 AM »
I also guess for a record (low) this year, but I'll change my mind in September if proves otherwise  ;)
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2017, 07:01:20 AM »
Yea, new record here too if i was unclear from my previous posts.
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2017, 02:26:57 PM »
I stand with the outliers--1.75-2.25--in this JAXA poll, based on low volume and the possibility of a GAC at the wrong time/place for ice preservation.

In the NSIDC poll, on the other hand, I'm going with "past is prologue" where this year will be like 2016 (4.75+\-), by the NSIDC method of calculation.

Consistency is nowhere listed as a requirement for voting in these polls, right? 😲

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2017, 03:40:18 PM »
I had a thought (sorry). The melting season is more than half over in elapsed time, but what about in melting ? So I had a look (JAXA data). The answer is that if history is any guide, melting is just under half-done (49%). The data is very consistent. Even in the magic year of 2012, and despite the Great Arctic Cyclone, melting was 51% done by June 30. Surprised? I am. Only in 2010 and 2014 is there a significant increase in melting from July 1 to minimum.

My 2nd thought (sorry again) is that unless something extraordinary happens, it is a case of the continuing slow-motion train wreck. (PIOMAS rules, OK?)

 Melting to now and until end of melting season                
           To June 30        Rest of year            Total Melt
                 Km2             %         Km2             %    
1980's     4,033,183    48%       4,339,270    52%     8,372,453
1990's     4,051,375    48%       4,470,661    52%     8,522,036
2000's     4,427,110    48%       4,764,147    52%     9,191,257
2002    Incomplete data             
2003            4,207,796    46%       4,924,530    54%     9,132,326
2004            4,535,181    50%       4,482,544    50%     9,017,725
2005            4,520,327    49%       4,696,467    51%     9,216,794
2006            3,718,307    44%       4,789,027    56%     8,507,334
2007            5,403,661    53%       4,728,010    47%    10,131,671
2008            5,291,762    52%       4,982,391    48%    10,274,153
2009            4,797,542    50%       4,805,450    50%     9,602,992
2010            4,263,292    42%       5,803,156    58%    10,066,448
2011            4,823,503    49%       5,035,027    51%     9,858,530
2012            5,862,456    51%       5,669,175    49%    11,531,631
2013            4,803,052    49%       4,911,295    51%     9,714,347
2014            4,173,437    44%       5,390,859    56%     9,564,296
2015            5,225,313    54%       4,397,257    46%     9,622,570
2016            4,956,444    50%       4,960,446    50%     9,916,890
2007-1  4,960,046    49%       5,068,307    51%    10,028,353

2017          4,847,643

seaicesailor

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2017, 04:00:32 PM »
Not sure why you picked 49%, numbers seem to vary a lot, meaning a 52/48 proportion leads to a substantially different result to a 49/51.
But in any case, shouldnt the final result be like one million lower? I think it doesn't add up

gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2017, 04:31:43 PM »
Not sure why you picked 49%, numbers seem to vary a lot, meaning a 52/48 proportion leads to a substantially different result to a 49/51.
But in any case, shouldnt the final result be like one million lower? I think it doesn't add up

49 so far / 51 to come is the average of the last 10 years (2007-2016). If it does not add up my spreadsheet is stuffed. Just checked - my table starts with rows for each year as follows
 Max
 Min
June 30 melt
 Remaining melt
 Total melt
 Control - all nicely zero.

And no data I have says that a new record minimum is likely.



seaicesailor

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2017, 04:45:41 PM »

49 so far / 51 to come is the average of the last 10 years (2007-2016). If it does not add up my spreadsheet is stuffed. Just checked - my table starts with rows for each year as follows
 Max
 Min
June 30 melt
 Remaining melt
 Total melt
 Control - all nicely zero.

And no data I have says that a new record minimum is likely.
Thanks for the clarification.
Still, if the 2017 maximum was around 13.8 - 13.9 million km2 (not sure of the exact number) with slightly above 10 million km2 of total melt you should get something around 3.8 - 3.9 million km2.
Coincidentally it is within the range I have just selected

gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #17 on: July 02, 2017, 05:07:31 PM »

49 so far / 51 to come is the average of the last 10 years (2007-2016). If it does not add up my spreadsheet is stuffed. Just checked - my table starts with rows for each year as follows
 Max
 Min
June 30 melt
 Remaining melt
 Total melt
 Control - all nicely zero.

And no data I have says that a new record minimum is likely.
Thanks for the clarification.
Still, if the 2017 maximum was around 13.8 - 13.9 million km2 (not sure of the exact number) with slightly above 10 million km2 of total melt you should get something around 3.8 - 3.9 million km2.
Coincidentally it is within the range I have just selected
My spreadsheet has refused to budge from that range for weeks. My guess is that it is when average thickness in the arctic basin gets below a critical point is when all bets are off. As the kids in the car say "are we nearly there yet?" and Daddy has to either lie or say  "not yet, darlings".

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #18 on: July 02, 2017, 07:37:57 PM »
As I don't feel a GAC in my bones, I voted for:  Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km2
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Paddy

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #19 on: July 02, 2017, 11:28:43 PM »
I may yet change my vote, particularly when we get the next piomas update, but for now I'm going 3.75 to 4.25. An approximate repeat of last year doesn't seem unlikely.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #20 on: July 03, 2017, 12:51:04 AM »
Based on this I have revised upward my guesstimate to 3.0-3.5
---> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg119231.html#msg119231
I still think the icepack is pretty trashy and vulnerable, so still estimating low.

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #21 on: July 03, 2017, 11:57:47 PM »
I voted in the "hole" at 3.25-3.75.

I think the distribution of likely outcomes is skewed left.  That is, I'm picking the modal (most likely) outcome, but I think the mean outcome is less than 3.5.

Ned W

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #22 on: July 05, 2017, 04:19:10 PM »
I've updated my predict-o-matic from last month (see here for June prediction).

So far, extent has been consistently just a hair below the June prediction:



Updating the model through today, its new prediction for Sept min is 4.15 million km2, down from last month's prediction of 4.21 million km2.  Given the overlapping ranges for the poll, I could choose either 3.75-4.25 or 4.0-4.5.  For now I'll go with the lower range, 3.75-4.25, based on the low PIOMAS volume and widespread belief that ice "condition" (?) is poor this year (despite my skepticism about that reasoning in the other thread...)

The lower 95% CI of the predict-o-matic is now 3.08 million km2.  So a new extent record is (barely) inside the 95% CI.  It looks to me like somewhere around a third to a quarter of this month's poll responses have been below that value.

Ned W

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #23 on: July 05, 2017, 05:13:44 PM »
As an alternative to my previous comment, one could predict the Sept JAXA minimum based on the PIOMAS value for the current Julian day.  Using data from 2007-2016 (as my predict-o-matic does) with the intercept forced to zero (for physical consistency) gives a best estimate of 3.63 million km2, somewhat lower than the predict-o-matic. 

It'll be interesting to see which approach is more successful.  The two models have a big overlap, though, so unless the Sept extent minimum is extraordinarily high or low it may not rule out either one.

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #24 on: July 05, 2017, 05:54:33 PM »
NedW, I've done a scatterplot of piomas summer months vs the jaxa daily minimum. The relationship is close-ish for July piomas, the coefficient is around 0.88. Not amazing for predictive purposes though; you'd want pretty wide error margins. I'll post a chart later if I get the chance.
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #25 on: July 05, 2017, 11:51:48 PM »
As mentioned earlier. The PIOMAS values are from Wipneus' data & graphs website.
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #26 on: July 06, 2017, 06:33:41 AM »
4.0-4.5 million km2. Covers the "predictomatic" amount.
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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #27 on: July 06, 2017, 05:37:53 PM »
Going down a bin to 3.5 - 4.0. Partly to get closer to where the line on Deeenngee's graph intersects with current volume, plus musings on the share of current ice outside of the CAB.

sedziobs

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #28 on: July 06, 2017, 05:46:36 PM »
comparing Bremen maps, and there is no year as "dark" in the Arctic proper as 2017
The color palette on the Bremen concentration maps has changed slightly this year.  There is no longer a lighter color for areas of just under 100% concentration.

seaicesailor

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #29 on: July 06, 2017, 05:58:59 PM »
comparing Bremen maps, and there is no year as "dark" in the Arctic proper as 2017
The color palette on the Bremen concentration maps has changed slightly this year.  There is no longer a lighter color for areas of just under 100% concentration.
Well that's a major mistake from my part then..., and well, they could have left the thing untouched.
Thank you for the notice!

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #30 on: July 08, 2017, 02:48:07 PM »
I have gone with 3.75 - 4.25 million km2 because the previous 10 years and the melting season to date bunged into simplistic projections have been stuck in this range for ages.

Jim Williams

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #31 on: July 08, 2017, 10:47:46 PM »
I always vote 0.0 in these polls.  It's kind of a rejection of the theory they are based upon.  I do not expect to be right in any particular poll, but I do expect to be suddenly right in one of them.

I am convinced that the freshwater lens and the halocline will at some point collapse, and that at that time the ice will suddenly disappear.  I don't know when this will happen, or even if it will happen in Summer, but I do think it will be rather soon.  Thus, I am always voting for a sudden end without any idea when.  Until then the ice will erode fairly slowly.

Neven

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #32 on: July 08, 2017, 11:44:48 PM »
I always vote 0.0 in these polls.  It's kind of a rejection of the theory they are based upon.  I do not expect to be right in any particular poll, but I do expect to be suddenly right in one of them.

I am convinced that the freshwater lens and the halocline will at some point collapse, and that at that time the ice will suddenly disappear.  I don't know when this will happen, or even if it will happen in Summer, but I do think it will be rather soon.  Thus, I am always voting for a sudden end without any idea when.  Until then the ice will erode fairly slowly.

If your stance is that nihilistic, maybe you shouldn't vote? Basically, you're saying: I think your poll is stupid, so I'm going to cast an extreme vote, without making an effort of trying to understand what's going on, as if there won't be plenty of people voting low when they truly see the signs on the wall (warm winter, low volume, extremely fast SIE decline in April and May, massive melt pond formation, etc).

No wonder poll results are always skewed so low. And all that time I thought it was climate risk deniers doing it on purpose 'to make the alarmists look dumb'.

Sad.
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Jim Williams

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #33 on: July 08, 2017, 11:51:15 PM »
I always vote 0.0 in these polls.  It's kind of a rejection of the theory they are based upon.  I do not expect to be right in any particular poll, but I do expect to be suddenly right in one of them.

I am convinced that the freshwater lens and the halocline will at some point collapse, and that at that time the ice will suddenly disappear.  I don't know when this will happen, or even if it will happen in Summer, but I do think it will be rather soon.  Thus, I am always voting for a sudden end without any idea when.  Until then the ice will erode fairly slowly.

If your stance is that nihilistic, maybe you shouldn't vote? Basically, you're saying: I think your poll is stupid, so I'm going to cast an extreme vote, without making an effort of trying to understand what's going on, as if there won't be plenty of people voting low when they truly see the signs on the wall (warm winter, low volume, extremely fast SIE decline in April and May, massive melt pond formation, etc).

No wonder poll results are always skewed so low. And all that time I thought it was climate risk deniers doing it on purpose 'to make the alarmists look dumb'.

Sad.
I did at first consider not voting, and not voting is an option...but then you are rejecting a viewpoint in your social statistic.  (All this is is a socal statistic.)

I am going to be right.  I just don't know when.

As far as being Nihilistic...no, but that is a matter for discussion on some religious forum, perhaps Buddhist, not here.

slow wing

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #34 on: July 09, 2017, 01:16:58 AM »
Voted between 2.50 and 3.00 (units of million square kilometres), so predicting a new record by a small or moderate margin, beating the old record of 3.18 set in 2012.

A lot still depends on the weather. The answer could go as low as 1 or as high as 5.

 July is probably the most critical melt month as the Arctic receives plenty of sun and the ice pack has begun to degrade so the sun can find water in the Central Arctic Basin rather than being predominantly reflected back by snow or ice.

  I liked an analogy Neven made with a Mike Tyson combination if the Arctic got two strong storms with a period of sunny weather sandwiched in between.

  It's the combination that matters (although full time sun would also destroy the ice). To melt, the Arctic ice pack needs heat as well as a way for the ice to receive the heat.

  June already had a storm that dispersed the ice and presumably broke it up and made it more mobile.

   I'll disagree with most by saying the dipole configuration that followed was actually favourable for preserving the ice. The reason is that it compacted the ice, thus removing the holes in the interior that could otherwise have absorbed heat from the sun.

   Compaction during late June and early July generally helps preserve the ice, dispersion hurts it.

  Now we are getting another dipole with a high pressure system heading down the Pacific side.

  After that, who knows? The weather forecasts don't extend far enough in the future to give much guidance on the course of the melt season.

  There is evidence that storms in the melt season are becoming more frequent and stronger. There may even be a 'hurricane alley' developing with storms arriving from the Russian side down into the Laptev Sea and then heading deeper into the Arctic Basin. If so then that is going to move the remaining ice around in August and pick up any accessible heat in the water.


  By region in the Central Arctic then:

The Russian side (Laptev, Chukchi and Bering Seas), which already had thinner ice than usual, is getting worked over with lots of wind and some sun.  Prediction: that ice will melt out early.

The Beaufort: primarily first year ice but it has been piled up in thickness by winds blowing predominantly from the Russian side. Even so, it is receiving the combination blows discussed above. Prediction: the Pacific side is going to melt right out, probably to an extent that is visually striking.

The Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Is there a trend in most recent years for the islands to lose their snow cover earlier and heat up in the sun? The CAA is going to continue the trend (if I'm remembering correctly) and melt out by a record or near record amount.

The Central Arctic basin. This is the ice sanctuary. It will lose some thick ice through the Nares Strait and what Neven has dubbed the CAA 'garlic press' but next to the Canadian coast and Greenland will almost certainly retain much of the surviving ice.

 The Atlantic side. The big question mark for me. It depends on the weather! Also there is uncertainty on the thickness of the ice. Compared to the Pacific side, it has been cooler and hasn't received as much sun. I do think the ice is thin and vulnerable first year ice in the Russian-Atlantic quadrant and probably this will largely melt out anyway. On the other hand, a lot of ice will likely remain between Svalbard and the North Pole, extending down into the Fram Strait.

 So I predict that the remaining sea ice will be more skewed to the Atlantic side than in most years.

 That's my thinking in voting between 2.50 and 3.00 million square kilometres. Due mainly to record low volume heading into the melt season, I think a record or near record is likely.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2017, 01:27:31 AM by slow wing »

jdallen

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #35 on: July 09, 2017, 09:21:50 AM »
<snip>
No wonder poll results are always skewed so low.
<snip>
It's common practice in various self sampling tests to drop the top 5 and bottom 5 percent of scores before generating an average.  This especially makes sense when you know some responses *will* be deliberately skewed.

Another approach would be to look at the median rather than the average.

My two cents on sampling these estimates to arrive at an aggregate.
This space for Rent.

oren

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #36 on: July 09, 2017, 09:50:53 AM »
On the ASIF you probably need to snip the bottom 10 percent to get a good predictive average for the current year. But one of these years these 10% will be the only ones who were right.

DoomInTheUK

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #37 on: July 09, 2017, 10:41:04 AM »
Well I too expect the ice at some point to just go poof - but I'm not feeling it this year.
I've gone 3.0 - 3.5. I think that once the thin low albedo ice around the edges melts out, then the central thin ice is at the mercy of some big fetches.
I suppose I'm betting on a GAC or maybe train of mini GAC's to work the CAB into record, or near-record, territory.

Neven

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #38 on: July 09, 2017, 10:43:45 AM »
On the ASIF you probably need to snip the bottom 10 percent to get a good predictive average for the current year. But one of these years these 10% will be the only ones who were right.

I think that when the signs are on the wall (low volume, high SST anomalies, lots of melting momentum) those 10% will be joined by many others. That's what annoys me so much about Jim Williams' nihilistic vote. The whole point of a poll is to vote on what you think will happen when. It's not roulette, where you just put your money on your favourite number.

Which, BTW, was the straw that broke the back of the camel that was moderating Jim's comments, and so he is banned now.
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Darvince

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #39 on: July 09, 2017, 11:11:16 AM »
Completely OT: It would be nice to have a way to know who is currently banned, other than scouring through all forum posts looking for you or Pettit posting that you've banned someone.

Not OT: This month I bumped my bin one higher, from 3.5-3.75 Mkm² to 3.75-4.25 Mkm² because of the slow June melt. I may bump it one higher still if the huge high pressure doesn't cause century breaks on IJIS/JAXA.

Ned W

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #40 on: July 10, 2017, 01:02:54 PM »
On the ASIF you probably need to snip the bottom 10 percent to get a good predictive average for the current year. But one of these years these 10% will be the only ones who were right.
That sounds like the "stopped clock" thing. What's the virtue in just making the same automatic prediction year after year until it's right?  Aren't we supposed to be trying to learn something here?

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #41 on: July 10, 2017, 06:34:21 PM »
I went up, from 3-3.5 to 3.25-3.75.
I will be very glad if I am wrong and my forecast is still too low!  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #42 on: July 10, 2017, 07:49:39 PM »
On the ASIF you probably need to snip the bottom 10 percent to get a good predictive average for the current year. But one of these years these 10% will be the only ones who were right.
That sounds like the "stopped clock" thing. What's the virtue in just making the same automatic prediction year after year until it's right?  Aren't we supposed to be trying to learn something here?
I agree, and I try my best to give "reasonable" predictions.

seaicesailor

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #43 on: July 10, 2017, 08:20:01 PM »
On the ASIF you probably need to snip the bottom 10 percent to get a good predictive average for the current year. But one of these years these 10% will be the only ones who were right.
That sounds like the "stopped clock" thing. What's the virtue in just making the same automatic prediction year after year until it's right?  Aren't we supposed to be trying to learn something here?
Yes, but 2015 and 2016 I (or many) sort of got a consistent idea of what was going on and the predictions were not bad.
This year I still debate internally whether it is a 3 or a 5.. The first digit I mean.
I guess we will learn a good lesson from this season but it will be past September

oren

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #44 on: July 10, 2017, 08:57:22 PM »
3 or 5, nice way to put it. It's PIOMAS vs. IJIS. I side with PIOMAS, but we'll learn a lot in the next 2 months.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2017, 07:45:42 AM by oren »

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #45 on: July 11, 2017, 05:51:00 AM »
One and a half days to make or change your vote!  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

EgalSust

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #46 on: July 11, 2017, 03:05:55 PM »
Voted 4-4.5.

Don't know about the JAXA predictions, but the median ASIF prediction for NSIDC monthly has been alarmist 12 times out of 12, sometimes more, sometimes less. (2015 was a good year.) The (mostly) pro's at SIPN have been a little better on target, but not super-much: 9 times alarmist, 3 times conservative, with a slightly smaller error margin. Seems predicting is def not easy! Here a graphic representation (courtesy of Ned W & Steven):


Ned W

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #47 on: July 11, 2017, 03:19:53 PM »
This year I still debate internally whether it is a 3 or a 5.. The first digit I mean.

FWIW, the continuously-updated version of the predict-o-matic now has a best estimate of 4.3.  It's still possible (95% CI) that the first digit will be a "5" but more likely that it will be a "3", and most likely of all that it will be a "4". 

A month ago it was predicting 4.2 IIRC, and a week ago that had dropped to 4.1.  At that point I could have gone with either the 3.75-4.25 range or the 4.0-4.5 for this month's poll. For various qualitative reasons I decided to go with the lower range.  Now at 4.3 the mean estimate from the predict-o-matic is (slightly) outside the range I chose.  Argh.


Ned W

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #48 on: July 11, 2017, 03:21:51 PM »
Hey, thanks for adding the SIPN medians to that graph, EgalSust.  Nice!

EgalSust

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Re: JAXA 2017 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July poll
« Reply #49 on: July 11, 2017, 03:43:19 PM »
Hey, thanks for adding the SIPN medians to that graph, EgalSust.  Nice!


Oh, I didn't do it,  Steven did at the Accuracy of poll predictions -thread!