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plg

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1250 on: May 13, 2015, 07:29:40 AM »
plg, I live in Sweden. ;)
Look at the first four days in May.
http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/kartor/dailyTable.php?par=tmpAvvDay&yr=2015&mon=5
True, it has been chilly. I just alluded to the conflation of weather and climate, looking at the records for the last 10 years it is clear that warming dominates, with occasional colder than normal weather.

I just reacted to your reference to the tired "AGW  is over because it is cold outside..." meme.
If you are not paranoid you just do not have enough information yet.

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1251 on: May 13, 2015, 07:42:45 AM »
May 12 is the earliest day we have dipped below 12 Mn km2.

Earliest day below 11 Mn km2 is June 3 which occurred in 2011.

The years 2010-2014 have seen a melt rate of 0,8-1,2 Mn km2 from this date to May 31.

the years from 2003-2009 saw a melt rate of 0,6-1,15 Mn km2 from this date to May 31.

I agree with Espen that we'll probably see 2015 be the lowest for a while now.

//LMV

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1252 on: May 13, 2015, 08:09:19 AM »
plg, I live in Sweden. ;)
Look at the first four days in May.
http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/kartor/dailyTable.php?par=tmpAvvDay&yr=2015&mon=5
True, it has been chilly. I just alluded to the conflation of weather and climate, looking at the records for the last 10 years it is clear that warming dominates, with occasional colder than normal weather.

I just reacted to your reference to the tired "AGW  is over because it is cold outside..." meme.

It is dangerously tiresome, but that's what deniers are pushing here, so it's impossible to ignore as a lot of people actually buys that crap. I won't link to such nonsense but they recently published a graph depicting a dead earth at 180ppm.  ::)
We have had record temperatures this winter in Sweden and the long term trend is the same as everywhere else.

plg

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1253 on: May 13, 2015, 08:31:46 AM »
Compelling graph. But... it's cold outside now...  ::)
If you are not paranoid you just do not have enough information yet.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1254 on: May 14, 2015, 06:44:10 AM »
IJIS:

11,931,057 km2(May 13, 2015)down 52,335 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1255 on: May 14, 2015, 12:43:53 PM »
IJIS:

Have a ice day!

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1256 on: May 15, 2015, 01:24:05 PM »
No extent number this morning; just a redirect to IJIS's twitter feed. The most recent tweets:

ADSは大規模メンテナンスを行うため5月15日12:00から5月20日12:00までサービスを停止させます。メンテナンス状況についてTwitterでアナウンスいたします。

(ADS will stop the service from May 15 12:00 order to carry out large-scale maintenance to 12:00 May 20 . For maintenance situation will announce on Twitter.)

...followed by:

本日12:00よりADSのサービスは停止させております。大規模メンテナンスを実行中です。

(ADS of service from 12:00 today , we have to stop . We are running a large-scale maintenance .)

So if I'm reading this correctly: no extent numbers until next week.

lanevn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1257 on: May 15, 2015, 01:48:54 PM »
Maybe they don't like to show record lows )

Vergent

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1258 on: May 15, 2015, 03:41:28 PM »
ジム、更新のために感謝します。雪氷圏とASIGダウン今日はゴーストタウンのようなものです。それは私は少し退屈になります。私はforeward更新されます来週楽しみにしています。

Verg

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1259 on: May 15, 2015, 04:06:33 PM »
Maybe they don't like to show record lows )

My guess is it will stay lowest at least another week from now.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1260 on: May 18, 2015, 01:01:11 PM »
FWIW, ADS_NIPR says we'll have extent numbers back on Wednesday:


Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1261 on: May 19, 2015, 05:54:45 AM »
IJIS:

11,675,662 km2(May 18, 2015)down 255,395 km2 from May 13 2015 and lowest measured for the date.
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Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1262 on: May 19, 2015, 06:07:47 AM »
Yay, you're back.    :)
Paid Insane Murdoch Drone

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1263 on: May 19, 2015, 08:00:22 AM »
Since Espens last update for May 12 the daily changes have been as follows:

May 12: 11983392 km2
May 13: 11931057 km2 (down 52 335 km2)
May 14: 11891356 km2 (down 39 701 km2)
May 15: 11867281 km2 (down 24 705 km2)
May 16: 11806520 km2 (down 60 761 km2)
May 17: 11751564 km2 (down 54 956 km2)
May 18: 11675662 km2 (down 75 902 km2)


Seems like the warm temps in Alaska and Canada will continue for another week... In addition, the GFS 00z run hints of possibly warmer weather on the Siberian side of the Arctic basin in about 6-7 days from now..

Best, LMV

Siffy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1264 on: May 19, 2015, 10:35:33 AM »
IJIS:

11,675,662 km2(May 18, 2015)down 255,395 km2 from May 13 2015 and lowest measured for the date.

Hey Espen, I was wondering if its possible in future graphs to add some kind of dotted vertical lines to mark each day increment? It would help to make the graphs a little clearer and contrast the different years better.

You also have my gratitude for updating this thread daily as you do when the Jaxa figures become available. Thank you for your efforts. :)

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1265 on: May 19, 2015, 04:54:39 PM »
Siffy,


I cant do much about, because I do not produce the graphs :(
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1266 on: May 20, 2015, 05:53:13 AM »
IJIS:

11,611,102 km2(May 19, 2015)down 64,560 km2 from previous and lowest measured.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1267 on: May 21, 2015, 05:39:21 AM »
IJIS:

11,513,530 km2(May 20, 2015)down 97,572 km2 from previous and lowest measured.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1268 on: May 21, 2015, 05:41:35 AM »
IJIS:

I dont see 2015 will see any real competition until mid June?
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1269 on: May 22, 2015, 06:02:33 AM »
IJIS:

11,440,794 km2(May 21, 2015) down 72,736 km2 from previous and record low.
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Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1270 on: May 22, 2015, 06:17:00 AM »
Looks like the "June plunge" is starting early this year....which is no surprise.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1271 on: May 22, 2015, 04:00:50 PM »
IJIS:

11,440,794 km2(May 21, 2015) down 72,736 km2 from previous and record low.
IJIS is down 40% more than NSIDC (1,220K km^2 vs 870K km^2). Given that  these measures are both supposedly  measuring the same thing this seems like a big discrepancy over 20 days. Particularly that NSIDC is almost always greater than IJIS.

Is there a known reason for the variation?
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1272 on: May 22, 2015, 04:13:53 PM »

IJIS is down 40% more than NSIDC (1,220K km^2 vs 870K km^2). Given that  these measures are both supposedly  measuring the same thing this seems like a big discrepancy over 20 days. Particularly that NSIDC is almost always greater than IJIS.

Is there a known reason for the variation?

IJIS has been discontinued, the data presented in this thread comes from ADS-NIPR.

Main reason for NSIDC  values being larger, is the courser grid (25x25km instead of 10x10km) and the superior resolution of the AMSR2 instrument compared to SSMIS.

pikaia

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1273 on: May 22, 2015, 04:39:07 PM »
Don't they use different thresholds for the concentration? I have seen figures of 15% and 30%.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1274 on: May 22, 2015, 06:05:49 PM »
Don't they use different thresholds for the concentration? I have seen figures of 15% and 30%.

They both use 15%. There are other differences than grid cell size: different sattellite/sensors, different microwave channels, different algorithms, slightly different ideas about the land/ocean.
The grid cell size and the resolution of the sensors are the most important here.

As an example look at this post, where I compare the NSIDC map with a high resolution AMSR2 based map. In the latter lots of open water cause extent to lower, while the extent from NSIDC is still at 100%.

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1275 on: May 23, 2015, 01:14:33 AM »
Don't they use different thresholds for the concentration? I have seen figures of 15% and 30%.

They both use 15%. There are other differences than grid cell size: different sattellite/sensors, different microwave channels, different algorithms, slightly different ideas about the land/ocean.
The grid cell size and the resolution of the sensors are the most important here.

As an example look at this post, where I compare the NSIDC map with a high resolution AMSR2 based map. In the latter lots of open water cause extent to lower, while the extent from NSIDC is still at 100%.

So the difference would be influenced by the length of the ice/water boundary, as well as the open patches within the ice, and would increase dramatically as the ice breaks away from the shore as it is in the Hudson and Beaufort at the moment.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1276 on: May 23, 2015, 08:02:12 AM »
IJIS:

11,373,423 km2(May 22, 2015)down 67,371 km2 from previous and record low.
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1277 on: May 23, 2015, 08:15:25 AM »
IJIS:

11,373,423 km2(May 22, 2015)down 67,371 km2 from previous and record low.
...It's not slowing down...
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Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1278 on: May 23, 2015, 12:15:29 PM »
I expect it to stay below the 2012 low....and I think the likelihood of that happening is HIGH.  The only question in my mind now....is by how much the record low is broken in September.  Is it just going to be broken....or is it going to get absolutely crushed this year?

Remember....the melting season is now LENGHTENING at both ends (beginning and end).  The melting season started in mid February this year.  Will it end later as well?

Also....

A) So what has happened to Joe Bastardi's "Arctic ice will be recovering to 1970 levels" that he made in 2010?

B)  The "snowball" that Senator James Inhofe was holding in his hand when he was addressing the US Congress earlier this year....is now melting in his hand.  I hope the good folks of Oklahoma will hold him accountable for being on the wrong side of history.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

LRC1962

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1279 on: May 23, 2015, 05:16:10 PM »
Buddy: I recall a few years back when drought and high heat were first hitting the midwestern US, a replier ina forum declared there could not possibly be a drought as he had all the proof he needed outside his front door as he had had plenty of rain all summer. Looking at a drought map pinpointed his location almost to the block as that was the only spot in almost the entire midwest that had been getting rain. point being. some see only what they want to see and too many want the easy way out by agreeing and not find out for themselves.
Next winter Inhofe will have another snowball to show and JB will still believe in recovery because af the incredible rebound of ice the Arctic has produced after Sept/Oct minimum.
As for this year, systems could change and the melt could flatten out, on the other hand we could be witnessing a worst ever minimum.
DMI is still showing well below average temps, but all the other indicators sure do not hold much hope for a melt that will end above norm ether 2013 or 2014 levels.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
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Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1280 on: May 24, 2015, 12:50:55 AM »
No doubt....there are some people who certainly "believe what they want to believe" (or what they WISHED would be real).  I would suggest that Joe Bastardi and James Inhofe are NOT in that camp.

In fact....I believe that BOTH of them are "paid" to say what they are saying (INDIRECTLY of course).  In the case of James Inhofe....his campaign donations come from fossil fuel companies....and he is EITHER outright lying OR ignoring every piece of evidence in front of his face.  In the case of Joe Bastardi....his "company" was at least PARTIALLY bankrolled by "client fees" and other money from fossil fuel companies.

In the case of Joe Bastardi.....you can actually FOLLOW HIS LIES in the press.  He makes it EMBARASSINGLY easy to follow his lies.

We (humans).....especially  in Democratic countries......tend to be WAY TOO SOFT on those that lie for a living.  Whether it is Lance Armstrong, bankers at the largest investment banks, lobbyists, CEO's who lied during the housing bubble, etc.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1281 on: May 24, 2015, 06:30:03 AM »
IJIS:

11,316,447 km2(May 23, 2015)down 56,976 km2 from previous and record low.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1282 on: May 24, 2015, 06:44:40 AM »


We (humans).....especially  in Democratic countries......tend to be WAY TOO SOFT on those that lie for a living.  Whether it is Lance Armstrong, bankers at the largest investment banks, lobbyists, CEO's who lied during the housing bubble, etc.

It is due to the fact that the better a person is packing a lie in voluminous words that most other people dont comprehend, the better he is paid, and that is how our system works.
But on the other hand.
Scientists use these words a lot too (for stupid reasons), without getting paid, thought of the day?
« Last Edit: May 24, 2015, 09:53:33 AM by Espen »
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Siffy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1283 on: May 24, 2015, 10:17:42 AM »
Looks like we have a high likelihood of dropping below 11m ^2 KM before June.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1284 on: May 24, 2015, 10:29:06 AM »
Looks like we have a high likelihood of dropping below 11m ^2 KM before June.

That is very likely since it takes an average of only +/- 45,200 km2 a day.
Have a ice day!

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1285 on: May 25, 2015, 12:06:33 AM »
Quote
It is due to the fact that the better a person is packing a lie in voluminous words that most other people dont comprehend, the better he is paid, and that is how our system works.

But the people who DO KNOW (you, I, most others on this site, almost all scientists, a growing number of many others) HAVE TO SPEAK UP LOUDLY......AND DIRECTLY.

We are "moving along" the LOGARITHMIC TRAIL we are on....and the changes that will be happening will come along more quickly as time passes.

Bullies......whether they are bullies in school, bullies in corporate life, or bullies regarding climate change have to be dealt with DIRECTLY....OPENLY....AND IN NO UNCERTAIN TERMS.

As Albert Einstein said:  "The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything."

The world stood around as the tobacco companies continued to lie for decades.  Now...some of the very same people are doing the same thing with climate change.

The lies will continue until an overwhelming number of people stand up and expose them.

 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

LRC1962

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1286 on: May 25, 2015, 01:27:01 AM »
Big lie
Usage in Hitler's psychological profile[edit]
The phrase was also used in a report prepared during the war by the United States Office of Strategic Services in describing Hitler's psychological profile:[5][6]

His primary rules were: never allow the public to cool off; never admit a fault or wrong; never concede that there may be some good in your enemy; never leave room for alternatives; never accept blame; concentrate on one enemy at a time and blame him for everything that goes wrong; people will believe a big lie sooner than a little one; and if you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it.[7]

Although this does work up to a degree once the masses decide to turn on you there is very little place to hide as the whole society tends to make your world very difficult to live in. Do not know what applies to your area, but where I live if you are a smoker: no ads allowed, stores that sell them cannot reveal their product in public display, must smoke no closer then 9 metres from closest public doorway, cannot smoke in enclosed areas where people work or congregate in  .... and every year the laws get tougher. As a non smoker and allergic to it I applaud the moves, point being 40 years ago this was all unthinkable. The Big lie has been found as a Big lie and BIG tobacco is not what it was 40 years ago. The same will hold true for Big oil and CO2. Question will be will it be soon enough to avoid some of the worse tipping points to come. Unfortunately too late to save the Arctic sea ice as could be seen in the next few years, but deadly heat, worldwide famine etc. maybe.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1287 on: May 25, 2015, 05:23:25 AM »
IJIS:

11,275,662 km2(May 24, 2015)down 40,785 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1288 on: May 26, 2015, 05:22:06 AM »
IJIS:

11,227,542 km2(May 25, 2015)down 48,120 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1289 on: May 27, 2015, 05:44:16 AM »
IJIS:

11,182,043 km2[/sup](May 26, 2015)down 45,499 km2 from previous.
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ktonine

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1290 on: May 27, 2015, 05:52:54 PM »
Lowest ever for this date?  I present for your amusement via Twitter:

Joe Bastardi retweeted
Steve Goddard @SteveSGoddard  ·  4h 4 hours ago
Two decades of unprecedented melting has left Arctic sea ice almost identical to 20 years ago

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi

Haters gotta hate and deniers gotta deny :)

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1291 on: May 27, 2015, 06:19:46 PM »
Lowest ever for this date?  I present for your amusement via Twitter:

Joe Bastardi retweeted
Steve Goddard @SteveSGoddard  ·  4h 4 hours ago
Two decades of unprecedented melting has left Arctic sea ice almost identical to 20 years ago

I got my retaliation in early:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/05/arctic-sea-ice-fails-to-track-2005-06/

Expect more from "Snow White" shortly!

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/603597391703502848

P.S. This really should be on the Great White Con thread, but:

« Last Edit: May 27, 2015, 06:31:09 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1292 on: May 27, 2015, 06:26:18 PM »
Quote
Joe Bastardi retweeted
Steve Goddard @SteveSGoddard  ·  4h 4 hours ago
Two decades of unprecedented melting has left Arctic sea ice almost identical to 20 years ago

Yup, a 2015 ice crystal (grown from Arctic seawater) will look almost identical to a 1995 ice crystal (grown from Arctic seawater).   ;D
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1293 on: May 28, 2015, 05:46:13 AM »
IJIS:

11,124,380 km2(May 27, 2015)down 58,162 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

crandles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1294 on: May 28, 2015, 12:43:33 PM »
IJIS:

11,124,380 km2(May 27, 2015)down 58,162 km2 from previous.

Lowest on record before June in any year.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1295 on: May 29, 2015, 05:40:56 AM »
IJIS:

11,065,959 km2(May 28, 2015)down 58,421 km2 from previous.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1296 on: May 29, 2015, 10:40:23 AM »
So if we keep trundling along as we are it will be around June 20th before the other years catch up?

Somehow I think we will be seeing larger losses than current by then?
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1297 on: May 29, 2015, 06:16:26 PM »
So if we keep trundling along as we are it will be around June 20th before the other years catch up?

Somehow I think we will be seeing larger losses than current by then?
All else being equal, it seems probable we will remain at about the same separation below previous years.  Day over day 2015 appears to be melting at the same rate or slightly higher than previous years.

Conditions may change of course, but I'm not seeing anything Yet to suggest a break in slope in 2015's progress.

Continued massive inputs of heat and moisture from lower latitudes could prompt a June/July "swan dive" to greater rate of decline.  However, if restraining feedbacks kick in (like 2013/14 evaporation from open water in the pack, forming fog and low clouds), the gap could close, as the increased thicker ice (as compared to other post 2012 years) exerts its influence over the numbers.

Either way, similar to both 2013 and 2014, I think we will see massive fragmentation of the pack into millions of larger and smaller separate floes, rather than contiguous extents of ice.  It will be much more vulnerable than pre-2012 or pre-2007, and its survival will depend greatly on favorable weather.
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plinius

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1298 on: May 29, 2015, 08:16:37 PM »
I am not sure why the ice should be thicker than in 2014?! Apart from the questionable PIOMAS offset, I know of no real indication for this...
One factor slowing us down might be though that some of the anomaly is in the Hudson, which will drop out, once it is fully ice free, hence slowing the decline.

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1299 on: May 29, 2015, 08:31:31 PM »
I am not sure why the ice should be thicker than in 2014?! Apart from the questionable PIOMAS offset, I know of no real indication for this...
One factor slowing us down might be though that some of the anomaly is in the Hudson, which will drop out, once it is fully ice free, hence slowing the decline.

Not long ago a comparison between Cryosat, PIOMAS and new AMSR2 based data was done by Wipneus and while differences exist, all agreed in the main trend. All real indications that there was more ice in Apr 2015 than in Apr 2014.