What's Needed to Surpass Previous Years??
As we all know, without the current storm, 2013 had little or no chance of finishing lower than 2007 let alone break 2012's record. For the remaining 30-45 days of the melt season we may need another storm and a late ending to the melt season.
Previous years final Extent and end date:
YEAR Date Extent
2007 24-Sep 4,254,531
2010 18-Sep 4,813,594
2011 09-Sep 4,526,875
2012 16-Sep 3,489,063
2013 Extent Loss Needed to Match Previous Years:
YEAR Extent Loss Needed
2007 2,254,688
2010 1,695,625
2011 1,982,344
2012 3,020,156
Assuming Melt Season Only Lasts Another 30 Days Only, Average Daily Loss Required to Match Previous Years:
YEAR Daily Average Loss
2007 75,156
2010 56,521
2011 66,078
2012 100,672
Assuming Melt Season Lasts Another 45 Days, Average Daily Loss Required to Match Previous Years:
YEAR Daily Average Loss
2007 50,104
2010 37,681
2011 44,052
2012 67,115
Unless something very unusual happens such a multiple storms and other factors to extend the melt season, I don't see any path to beating 2012's record this years. However, 2010 and 2011 are well within reach, while 2007 is "iffy" at best.