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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4300 on: May 27, 2017, 09:32:33 AM »
IJIS:

11,519,803 km2(May 26, 2017)down 25,091 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
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Feeltheburn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4301 on: May 27, 2017, 07:17:02 PM »
IJIS:

11,519,803 km2(May 26, 2017)down 25,091 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.

NSIDC has it at 7th place, "behind" 2016, 2014, 2011, 2010, 2006, 2004. Unless some dramatic melt starts happening it will "fall behind" even farther. After getting such a huge head start, what can explain the slow drop?
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bbr2314

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4302 on: May 27, 2017, 08:14:40 PM »
IJIS:

11,519,803 km2(May 26, 2017)down 25,091 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.

NSIDC has it at 7th place, "behind" 2016, 2014, 2011, 2010, 2006, 2004. Unless some dramatic melt starts happening it will "fall behind" even farther. After getting such a huge head start, what can explain the slow drop?
Multi-year ice pushed into the Atlantic death zones and very durable first-year ice in the Hudson and Baffin Bays, which has dealt with very low temps in recent months. This will all melt out anyways, but it is extending 2017's lead over the other years "artificially" if you will (IMO).

dosibl

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4303 on: May 27, 2017, 08:18:05 PM »
Comparing 2016/2017 on Hycom shows how much extra we have on the Atlantic side, until that melts out it'll help "cover" losses in other areas.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2017, 01:53:28 AM by dosibl »

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4304 on: May 27, 2017, 08:40:54 PM »
Of some interest: NSIDC actually had an UPTICK for May 26 at +19K(!!) This is the sixth uptick this month, maybe a record or so?

And yes, I agree with both of you dosibl and bbr about the explanation wrt extent numbers.

Kara Sea, Labrador Sea and Hudson Bay should begin to fall apart within a week or so. Laptev might follow as well but might take a little longer. Expect century breaks to come soon!!

Ice Shieldz

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4305 on: May 27, 2017, 09:45:42 PM »
Well before much melting takes place, the Kara looks to see immediate extent drops do to compaction along Novaya Zemlya island and dispersion from Kara into Barents. The GFS backed off the intensity of the LP, however the HP over the pole is looking strong.  This dipole should maintain or grow extent in the Barents, but me thinks that is just setting us up for a bigger June cliff.
« Last Edit: May 27, 2017, 09:54:08 PM by Ice Shieldz »

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4306 on: May 27, 2017, 11:23:24 PM »
IJIS:

11,519,803 km2(May 26, 2017)down 25,091 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.

NSIDC has it at 7th place, "behind" 2016, 2014, 2011, 2010, 2006, 2004. Unless some dramatic melt starts happening it will "fall behind" even farther. After getting such a huge head start, what can explain the slow drop?

The only areas where extent is really above average are the Barents and the Greenland Sea. Both have been cold this spring, and both will pretty much melt out completely by September. The melting season isn't exceptional, but also, remember, it's at a lower extent for the date than any year before 2000, and only 2 years prior to 2010 had a lower extent for this date. It's certainly exceptionally bad in those terms.

Predicting the final melt extent at this time of the year is still very difficult. 2012 still had higher extent for this date. Hopefully you are right, and that the melt season will 'fall back' even further, but it certainly doesn't need dramatic melt to keep up.

The CAB is critical for the final extent, the measure that makes the headlines, and that is where the thinner FYI is. Lets hope we don't get too much isolation. Cloudy weather please.

epiphyte

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4307 on: May 28, 2017, 09:00:24 AM »
IJIS:

11,519,803 km2(May 26, 2017)down 25,091 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.

NSIDC has it at 7th place, "behind" 2016, 2014, 2011, 2010, 2006, 2004. Unless some dramatic melt starts happening it will "fall behind" even farther. After getting such a huge head start, what can explain the slow drop?

Since early April, extent has been doubly increased by export (of both ice and cold air) to the atlantic side and by the consequent open water in Laptev, ESS and Kara freezing over.

Then it's been doubled again by increased fragmentation and dispersion in the CAB leading to yet more late-season FYI coverage.

To sum up, all that extra extent is caused by increased fragmentation + mobility, and either :
   - (in the case of everything to the South of Svalbard) in a place where it cannot possibly survive the summer, no matter how thick it is, or:
   -  not just FYI, but rather pretty much first _month_ ice, which formed late in the freezing season when temps were mostly way above the historical average for the time of year, which is likely to vanish in a puff of fog with no warning whatsoever.

... So all in all, as I've alluded to before, the "slow drop" is an artifact of the Arctic Ocean metaphorically slitting it's wrists, and the extent is just the size of the pool of blood on the floor.






DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4308 on: May 28, 2017, 10:27:12 AM »
Comparing 2016/2017 on Hycom shows how much extra we have on the Atlantic side, until that melts out it'll help "cover" losses in other areas.
What is very obvious from these thickness graphs is that there is very little ice greater than 2.5 m thick. That's about the level where we can be confident it will survive the summer. The lack of any  thick ice in the Alaska/Canada quadrant suggests it will all disappear very rapidly once the summer temperatures hit.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

ra3000

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4309 on: May 28, 2017, 04:03:39 PM »
Hello,
I use to read daily the comments in the forum. I am pretty interested in Climatology since I'm a Geographer, but I lack the knowledge you have because I'm more focused in Human Geography.
In any case, about this brief halt in the trend of the Arctic extent decline is easily explainable. Temperatures have an immediate impact on ice, and temperature anomalies (in my case I check climate reanalyzer mainly, DMI as well) haven't been as pronounced as they have used to be these last years. Of course volume (DMI) has keep progressing in the same way it did these last years. I think it is due to the fact that we lack most of the multiyear ice we used to had.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4310 on: May 30, 2017, 05:26:37 AM »
IJIS:

11,348,485 km2(May 29, 2017)and 6th lowest measured for the date.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2017, 06:54:06 PM by Espen »
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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4311 on: May 30, 2017, 06:08:53 AM »
Down 171k in 3 days

gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4312 on: May 30, 2017, 06:31:11 AM »
Still 6th, but in spitting distance of 3rd now. Maybe this week.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4313 on: May 30, 2017, 07:45:59 AM »
I set up excel graphs to compare SIE for Kara & Barents 2012, 2016 & 2017. According to NSIDC, the Kara yesterday (the 28th) dropped 3.2k compared to the 27th - while over the same dates Barents saw a gain of 14.4k.

I guess the public data for NSIDC lags a day behind IJIS/JAXA? If anyone knows where i can get more timely break downs by region with IJIS, please let me know and I'll use that data (preferably in CSV format) to make these graphs instead. Here is my source for NSIDC regional SIE: http://nsidc.org/data/masie/browse_regions

Jim Hunt

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4314 on: May 30, 2017, 10:50:43 AM »
Here is my source for NSIDC regional SIE

MASIE isn't really the ideal tool for the job. For more info on that thorny topic see:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/dmi-masie-and-the-sea-ice-index-an-interview-with-walt-meier/

Wipneus generates lots of regional data and graphs from assorted sources of concentration data, including JAXA. See for example this from ArctischePinguin:



Lots more technical info is available at:

Calculating area and extent from gridded concentration data
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4315 on: May 31, 2017, 05:28:54 AM »
IJIS:

11,283,701 km2(May 30, 2017)down 64,784 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4316 on: June 01, 2017, 05:23:18 AM »
IJIS:

11,211,387 km2(May 31, 2017)down 72,314 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2017, 03:48:06 PM by Espen »
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Ice Shieldz

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4317 on: June 01, 2017, 10:13:21 AM »
Looks like the Kara and the Barents contributed a solid percentage to our 72,314 km2 drop. The Barents is dropping even with ice importing in from Kara - this could mean that significant melt is occurring there, perhaps primarily due to warm water upwelling from all the winds?

Cato

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4318 on: June 01, 2017, 10:42:03 AM »
A "normal" start of melting season I'd say. Where "normal" refers to the last decade unfortunately. I'm not too much impressed by the performance so far: 2017 is not leading for the moment, but this does not imply that the melting season will be gentle with the arctic ice, as we all know. The volumes are small and this is just worrying.

The extension has been sustained by colder-than-usual conditions over the Barents which as usual have been associated with transport. The synoptic conditions have been fairly decent so far: the persistence of HP systems have prevented inflow of warmer and more humid air from the oceans. But in June this pattern can be associated with melting in-situ and formation of melting ponds, and therefore a "gentle" start of the melting season could turn easily into something much less gentle unfortunately.

It looks like in the next few days LP systems will start entering the arctic and persisting. This could help with temperatures as a persistence of the HP pattern in June would have compromised the rest of the season due to pre-conditioning. At least in my humble opinion.

There's a whole story to be written. I guess it will be the usual story of decreasing ice extent and volume, but so far there are not especially worse conditions than usual in terms of snow cover, synoptic patterns and even sea surface temperature (positive anomalies on Barents have decreased significantly). If it is true and evident that the ice is thinner, on the other hand a higher extension would help in terms of albedo, especially on the Beaufort sea, compared to one year ago.

Let's see what happens in the next few weeks. A cloudy June could avoid a major disaster in terms of ice melting, fingers crossed...

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4319 on: June 02, 2017, 05:27:26 AM »
IJIS:

11,138,263 km2(June 1, 2017)down 73,124 km2 and 4th lowest measured for the date.
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Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4320 on: June 02, 2017, 06:21:59 AM »
On June, there were lower drops on 2016. So, at June 15th, it was only 150k km2 lower than 2011 and 2012. At the end of June, we can say that 2016 was on the same level than 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2011. So it was not a huge gap any more, between 2016 and any other year.

I conclude that it is important what is going to happen this month. With low volume, I am not optimistic that 2017 will be a good year for the ice.

Let's see what happens at June 15th and June 30th.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4321 on: June 03, 2017, 08:13:25 AM »
IJIS:

11,064,847 km2
(June 2, 2017)down 73,416 km2 and 4th lowest measured for the date.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2017, 08:24:58 AM by Espen »
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4322 on: June 04, 2017, 11:30:20 AM »
IJIS:

11,022,775 km2(June 3, 2017)down 42,072 km2 and 4th lowest measured for the date.
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mmghosh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4323 on: June 04, 2017, 02:17:59 PM »
Cliff coming up! (says this 5-year cycle true believer ;D ;D ;D ;D)

dnem

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4324 on: June 04, 2017, 02:30:11 PM »
Cliff coming up. Having to do with the poor state of the ice and upcoming weather. And nothing to do with a five year cycle, says this true non-believer!

mmghosh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4325 on: June 04, 2017, 07:54:10 PM »
Lol, joking.  But this is a super-exciting melt year!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4326 on: June 05, 2017, 08:36:10 AM »
IJIS:

10,995,493 km2(June 4, 2017)down 27,282 km2 and 4th lowest measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4327 on: June 06, 2017, 05:28:04 AM »
IJIS:

10,931,380 km2(June 5, 2017)down 64,113 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4328 on: June 06, 2017, 02:06:05 PM »
SIE still hanging tough, can't imagine for much longer.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4329 on: June 07, 2017, 05:26:04 AM »
IJIS:

10,859,953 km2(June 6, 2017)down 71,427 km2 and 4th lowest measured for the date.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2017, 04:00:37 PM by Espen »
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gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4330 on: June 07, 2017, 07:34:55 AM »
Early June is turning into an interesting horse race. 2017 slips again into 4th, but also narrows the gap with the leaders, 2015 and 2016. And here comes 2012 on the outside, picking up speed! With 2017 definitely/probably/maybe due for a cliff, where will it stand by next week? It's still anyone's guess!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4331 on: June 07, 2017, 04:20:45 PM »
Early June is turning into an interesting horse race. 2017 slips again into 4th, but also narrows the gap with the leaders, 2015 and 2016. And here comes 2012 on the outside, picking up speed! With 2017 definitely/probably/maybe due for a cliff, where will it stand by next week? It's still anyone's guess!

good resume of the current situation, at least i'm thinking along the same path, expecting a drop but it could come later than we expect it, interesting times indeed.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4332 on: June 08, 2017, 05:23:45 AM »
IJIS:

10,796,630 km2(June 7, 2017)down 63,323 km2 and 4th lowest measured for the date.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2017, 04:21:02 PM by Espen »
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Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4333 on: June 09, 2017, 09:10:54 AM »
A drop of about 80K today... We are starting to see some action at last... Now 5th lowest behind 2016, 2015 and 2011 and 2010.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4334 on: June 09, 2017, 03:31:53 PM »
IJIS:

10,718,689 km2(June 8, 2017)77,941 km2 and 5th lowest measured for the date.
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gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4335 on: June 09, 2017, 08:41:18 PM »
On one hand, 2017 dropped from 4th to 5th place, but on the other hand, it moved a chunk closer to the lowest year, 2016. The 2016/2017 gap maxed out on May 26 --13 days ago -- at 868K and now stands at just 440K.

StopTheApocalypse

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4336 on: June 09, 2017, 09:45:44 PM »
The difference between third and fifth place is so tiny that it's literally imperceptible on that graph, so I wouldn't read too much into the move from fourth to fifth.

Cid_Yama

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4337 on: June 10, 2017, 12:31:10 AM »
On one hand, 2017 dropped from 4th to 5th place, but on the other hand, it moved a chunk closer to the lowest year, 2016. The 2016/2017 gap maxed out on May 26 --13 days ago -- at 868K and now stands at just 440K.

And looking at ... most everywhere, we are about to see a big drop.  But more important will be later when the melt usually starts to decline, which obviously it won't this year until much later, as there is no thick ice left to take a while to melt.

     
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4338 on: June 10, 2017, 09:51:57 AM »
IJIS:

10,643,906 km2
(June 9, 2017)down 74,783 km2 and 4th lowest measured for the date.
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Feeltheburn

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4339 on: June 10, 2017, 07:00:36 PM »
[SNIP]

[This thread is for discussions of IJIS sea ice extent; please use the appropriate thread for discussion of other metrics. Thanks. JP]
« Last Edit: June 10, 2017, 10:54:56 PM by Jim Pettit »
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Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4340 on: June 11, 2017, 09:36:43 AM »
Back to 3rd lowest :) But the margin to other years at 2-5 place is small. Only 20k to be 2nd lowest..

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4341 on: June 11, 2017, 10:52:25 AM »
IJIS:

10,561,988 km2(June 10, 2017)down 81,918 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4342 on: June 11, 2017, 02:02:20 PM »
IJIS, in June, now has the third highest extent loss in the past 15 years. (649399 km^2)
On average the June extent  loss for the 30 days of  June is more than 4 times the figure for the first 10 days.

Unlike 2005 and 2012, which  saw big losses early  in June, 2017 has seen consistently heavy daily losses not  a few very  large losses.   If 2017 was to have an average loss ratio between  the first  10 days and the last 20 days (4.244) the July 1st  extent would be nearly half a million km^2 below the 2010 record. What strikes me about the extent decline over the last 6 weeks is the remorseless steadily increasing rate of decline.  I am expecting the impact  of the vast amount of thin ice to kick in over the last next few weeks and the extent to diminish rapidly.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4343 on: June 11, 2017, 06:36:37 PM »
IJIS, in June, now has the third highest extent loss in the past 15 years. (649399 km^2)
On average the June extent  loss for the 30 days of  June is more than 4 times the figure for the first 10 days.

Unlike 2005 and 2012, which  saw big losses early  in June, 2017 has seen consistently heavy daily losses not  a few very  large losses.   If 2017 was to have an average loss ratio between  the first  10 days and the last 20 days (4.244) the July 1st  extent would be nearly half a million km^2 below the 2010 record. What strikes me about the extent decline over the last 6 weeks is the remorseless steadily increasing rate of decline.  I am expecting the impact  of the vast amount of thin ice to kick in over the last next few weeks and the extent to diminish rapidly.

almost word by word what i wanted to write after finishing the read-through LOL +1 to all
and especially to the "remorseless steadily" part which we will remember as a kind of "Primer" for what's to come. after all the ice is thin and at this right we could reach a widely spread zero-ice state within a few hours or days to be a bit less dramatic. i really prefer to be wrong but i smell "doom" as far as arctic sea-ice is concerned while i don't believe in an immediate game changer, just referring to the amount of ice (especially volume) that will remain. as to extent, since 20% cover count as 100%, there are many factors that can influence the final result, dispersion or compaction, who knows that, i don't know for one :-)

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4344 on: June 11, 2017, 09:25:04 PM »
A couple of graphical updates coming up from me. Firstly, my IJIS ranking ramps (for want of a better description), which neatly shows the May pause as 2017 climbed out of the bottom 3, as well as the points at which other years (eg 2010 & 2011) starting to rack up bottom 3 placings.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4345 on: June 11, 2017, 10:05:13 PM »
Also
- an updated shaded matrix of 1990-2017 rankings for May to June 10th
- and an update of 2017 extent compared to previous 10 year averages
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4346 on: June 12, 2017, 05:27:41 AM »
IJIS:

10,502,157 km2(June 11, 2017)down 59,831 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
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gregcharles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4347 on: June 12, 2017, 10:50:05 PM »
Again looking at it like a horse race, that was a spectacular day! 2017 retains its hold on 3rd place as the former 2nd and 4th switch positions. Also, even without what could be called a cliff, 2017 is now less than 350K out of the lead. It's made up nearly 100K in the past week.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4348 on: June 13, 2017, 07:26:44 AM »
Again looking at it like a horse race, that was a spectacular day! 2017 retains its hold on 3rd place as the former 2nd and 4th switch positions. Also, even without what could be called a cliff, 2017 is now less than 350K out of the lead. It's made up nearly 100K in the past week.

2017 picks up the pace as 2012 rushes past, losing a solid 119K today. After tomorrow 2012  barely manages to keep pace with the two backmarkers for two solid weeks.  It certainly looks like the lightweight 2017 will catch and streak ahead of 2012 and close in on the front runner in that period. Its going to be a close call for the lead at the end of the month, but the smart money, (well my money),  is now on 2017 leading. 
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #4349 on: June 13, 2017, 09:20:31 AM »
DavidR, are you saying that 2017 lost 112K of extent today, or that 2012 lost that amount on this date?  If 2017, where are you finding that info. before Espen posts it?  thanks