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jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #600 on: February 14, 2014, 09:00:12 AM »
JIS:

13,630,738 km2 (February 13, 2014) 

Down 145,993 km2 for this date, previous record 2011

Down 313,357 km2 for this date 2012.

If this is around the peak area for this season, it will certainly be an interesting season to follow.

Indeed.  However, I won't be excited until/unless it continues this trend (flat or down) for the next 3-4 days.

Then I will probably get VERY excited.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #601 on: February 14, 2014, 01:23:31 PM »
I've calculated the Extent gain, from  today's date, until the annual maximum for each of the past 10 years.  Taking those 10 annual gains, I added those values to the current IJIS Extent for February 12th, 2014.

In 3 cases, the 2014 Extent maximum would be less than 13,900 km2.

Another 4 cases, the 2014 Extent maximum would still be the lowest on record.

In 2 cases, the 2014 Extent maximum would be the 4th lowest on record.

In 1 case, the 2014 Extent maximum would be the 5th lowest on record.

FWIW, I made a chart last year that represents those same calculations graphically:



You can find it here.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #602 on: February 14, 2014, 03:25:29 PM »
I've calculated the Extent gain, from  today's date, until the annual maximum for each of the past 10 years.  Taking those 10 annual gains, I added those values to the current IJIS Extent for February 12th, 2014.

In 3 cases, the 2014 Extent maximum would be less than 13,900 km2.

Another 4 cases, the 2014 Extent maximum would still be the lowest on record.

In 2 cases, the 2014 Extent maximum would be the 4th lowest on record.

In 1 case, the 2014 Extent maximum would be the 5th lowest on record.

FWIW, I made a chart last year that represents those same calculations graphically:



You can find it here.

Jim Pettit...

I really like this chart. I remember following it last melt season. I know it does not approach the melt season in a statistically rigorous way but I am a visual person. The chart does seem to suggest we should not get overly excited as we approach the melt season.

Not yet anyway.

deep octopus

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #603 on: February 14, 2014, 03:31:28 PM »
Here's NOAA's CFS prediction for March surface temperature anomalies. The Eurasian side of the Arctic is expected to be much above average. This could get things melting quickly on the Atlantic side, and where things stand in the Barents, it doesn't need the help.


Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #604 on: February 14, 2014, 04:36:18 PM »
I really like this chart. I remember following it last melt season. I know it does not approach the melt season in a statistically rigorous way but I am a visual person. The chart does seem to suggest we should not get overly excited as we approach the melt season.

Not yet anyway.

I agree. On both points: it's too early to draw any conclusions as to how the rest of the year will proceed (after witnessing last summer's bizarre 10-day-long pause in melting, I may never make another ice melt forecast again). And the chart is most definitely not "statistically rigorous"; I juts wanted a quick and dirty cross-year reference. I like to think it handles that (not-so-heavy) duty well... ;-)

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #605 on: February 14, 2014, 06:08:32 PM »
Here's NOAA's CFS prediction for March surface temperature anomalies. The Eurasian side of the Arctic is expected to be much above average. This could get things melting quickly on the Atlantic side, and where things stand in the Barents, it doesn't need the help.



Too bad it doesn't show ocean atmosphere temperature anomalies. The small pieces of warm anomaly along the nares strait and northern Alaska suggests this Asian warm anomaly stretches across the CAB.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #606 on: February 15, 2014, 12:25:54 AM »
I really like this chart. I remember following it last melt season. I know it does not approach the melt season in a statistically rigorous way but I am a visual person. The chart does seem to suggest we should not get overly excited as we approach the melt season.

Not yet anyway.

I agree. On both points: it's too early to draw any conclusions as to how the rest of the year will proceed (after witnessing last summer's bizarre 10-day-long pause in melting, I may never make another ice melt forecast again). And the chart is most definitely not "statistically rigorous"; I juts wanted a quick and dirty cross-year reference. I like to think it handles that (not-so-heavy) duty well... ;-)

Jim,

Thanks for posting your chart.  Your graphic excellence is much appreciated!!

While I was just looking at potential trends for the remainder of the "growth" season, your chart carries the potentials much further.  It will be interesting to see what that chart will look like by the middle of March.  Again, it will be the weather in April and May that will really give us a better forecast of what September might look like.
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Siffy

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #607 on: February 15, 2014, 03:04:15 PM »
Back for year 2 of my ice watching career :p

I'd like to say thank you to every one providing graphs and moving data from the various different  outlets and collecting them on this forum.

Would I be right in thinking the high temperature anomaly over the Arctic is directly linked to the unusual weather effecting northern America, or is this just a coincidence?

my limited understanding points to it being related to the jetstream oscillations.

One last question, which I think already know the answer to but what chance is there that we've already hit the winter maximum?

My guess is this is all but impossible at this point unless something entirely unknown is going on?

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #608 on: February 15, 2014, 04:17:06 PM »
One last question, which I think already know the answer to but what chance is there that we've already hit the winter maximum?

My guess is this is all but impossible at this point unless something entirely unknown is going on?

While it's statistically possible the maximum has been reached, I think the chances of that are so slim as to be virtually non-existent. First, there've been just two years in the record with CT area maxima occurring before Day 50 (both 1992 and 1997 topped out on day 49, or February 18). The mean occurrence over the entire record has been Day 68 (March 11), while over the past ten years that's skewed up to Day 71 (March 12).

For JAXA extent, the earliest maximum over the past ten years took place on Day 55 (February 24) in 2007, while the latest occurred on Day 90 (March 31) in 2010. The mean occurrence over the ten years has been Day 69 (March 10).

With all that in mind, I'm not willing to go any farther out on a limb than to say this: assuming this year's maximums haven't already been reached--an unlikely prospect--we'll see those maximums sometime over the next one to six weeks for area, and two to six weeks for extent, with the most likely occurrence for both in roughly three weeks.

Bu, as always: we'll see...

Siffy

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #609 on: February 15, 2014, 04:33:23 PM »
One last question, which I think already know the answer to but what chance is there that we've already hit the winter maximum?

My guess is this is all but impossible at this point unless something entirely unknown is going on?

While it's statistically possible the maximum has been reached, I think the chances of that are so slim as to be virtually non-existent. First, there've been just two years in the record with CT area maxima occurring before Day 50 (both 1992 and 1997 topped out on day 49, or February 18). The mean occurrence over the entire record has been Day 68 (March 11), while over the past ten years that's skewed up to Day 71 (March 12).

For JAXA extent, the earliest maximum over the past ten years took place on Day 55 (February 24) in 2007, while the latest occurred on Day 90 (March 31) in 2010. The mean occurrence over the ten years has been Day 69 (March 10).

With all that in mind, I'm not willing to go any farther out on a limb than to say this: assuming this year's maximums haven't already been reached--an unlikely prospect--we'll see those maximums sometime over the next one to six weeks for area, and two to six weeks for extent, with the most likely occurrence for both in roughly three weeks.

Bu, as always: we'll see...

Thanks Jim, awesome answer.

:)

crandles

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #610 on: February 15, 2014, 07:07:08 PM »

While it's statistically possible the maximum has been reached, I think the chances of that are so slim as to be virtually non-existent. First, there've been just two years in the record with CT area maxima occurring before Day 50 (both 1992 and 1997 topped out on day 49, or February 18). The mean occurrence over the entire record has been Day 68 (March 11), while over the past ten years that's skewed up to Day 71 (March 12).


I would add that for CT area we are 100k below peak this year. 1989 reached a high on day 28 of 14.176 and the max was only 14.184 that year. Also 2007 reached 13.263 on day 47 and the max was only 13.317. So if in 3 days time we are still at least 54k below 12.624 as we are now and followed movements of 2007 from then it would happen. 1996 gained less than 100k from days 42 or 43.

Seems to be quite a few years that get close: 1989 2007 1996 1992 1997 but none are really doing it. My estimate is about 2% chance +/- 2%. Later years have later dates but OTOH relatively high ice volume at previous minimum compared to nearby years through to this date might tend to cause earlier minimum dates or it might not.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2014, 07:28:09 PM by crandles »

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #611 on: February 16, 2014, 10:31:33 AM »
IJIS:

13,739,569 km2 (February 15, 2014) 

Moving up a bit over the last couple of days, and still in record territory, will be interesting to see if 2014 crosses the 14 million km2 line, if not that will be a new situation.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #612 on: February 16, 2014, 01:58:59 PM »
To expand on what Espen has already stated:

13,739,5692 (February 15, 2014)

Up 38,939 km2 from previous day
Up 69,684 km2 over past seven days (daily average: 9,955 km2)
Up 122,867 km2 for the month-to-date (daily average: 8,191 km2)

691,771 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
257,680 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
289,682 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

Lowest ever for the date (fifth consecutive day, and seventh day this year, in first place)
Eighth consecutive day, and 24th this year, among the lowest three years on record

[W]ill be interesting to see if 2014 crosses the 14 million km2 line, if not that will be a new situation.

Indeed. The lowest maximum over the past ten years was 2011's 1.413 million km2, while the largest max was 2003's 15.066 million. The average has been 14.555 million km2, and we're still 815k km2 below that...
« Last Edit: February 16, 2014, 02:05:58 PM by Jim Pettit »

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #613 on: February 17, 2014, 04:35:09 AM »
IJIS:

13,795,307 km2(February 16, 2014)

Another day of growth.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #614 on: February 20, 2014, 06:10:46 AM »
IJIS:

13,935,082 km2 (February 19, 2014) a steep climb, and we will probably be crossing the 14 million km2 line soon!
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #615 on: February 20, 2014, 08:43:50 AM »
IJIS:

13,935,082 km2 (February 19, 2014) a steep climb, and we will probably be crossing the 14 million km2 line soon!

*Good*!

Here's hoping the ice thickens up.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #616 on: February 20, 2014, 01:15:54 PM »
IJIS:

13,935,082 km2 (February 19, 2014) a steep climb, and we will probably be crossing the 14 million km2 line soon!

Yes, a very steep climb--as I noted in another thread, that's the largest one-day increase in extent--and the first century increase--since November 30. However, 2014 is still nearly 200,000 km2 below 2012 on this date.

werther

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #617 on: February 20, 2014, 01:58:17 PM »
Must be the Bering Sea, freezing up under a cold snap. Won't last long, the snap will soon be over, leaving a thin layer of ice for the next storm.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #618 on: February 21, 2014, 06:21:53 AM »
IJIS:

14,035,877 km2(February 20, 2014) went trough the 14 million roof, but late?
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #619 on: February 21, 2014, 01:26:20 PM »
IJIS:

14,035,877 km2(February 20, 2014) went trough the 14 million roof, but late?

Well, not all that late. Here are the days for previous when the 14 million km2 threshold was first crossed:

2014: 20 February
2013: 09 February
2012: 15 February
2011: 06 March
2010: 14 February
2010s average: 16 February

2009: 05 February
2008: 28 January
2007: 13 February
2006: 08 March
2005: 16 February
2004: 06 February
2003: 17 January
2000s average: 29 January

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #620 on: February 21, 2014, 04:52:20 PM »
IJIS:

14,035,877 km2(February 20, 2014) went trough the 14 million roof, but late?

Well, not all that late. Here are the days for previous when the 14 million km2 threshold was first crossed:

2014: 20 February
2013: 09 February
2012: 15 February
2011: 06 March
2010: 14 February
2010s average: 16 February

2009: 05 February
2008: 28 January
2007: 13 February
2006: 08 March
2005: 16 February
2004: 06 February
2003: 17 January
2000s average: 29 January

Certainly consistent with 2010s average but the drop between 2000s and 2010s is dramatic. That this winters freeze falls in line with the 2010s average would support the argument that the freeze seasons are weakening.

crandles

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #621 on: February 21, 2014, 05:32:14 PM »
Certainly consistent with 2010s average but the drop between 2000s and 2010s is dramatic. That this winters freeze falls in line with the 2010s average would support the argument that the freeze seasons are weakening.

Or maybe it just supports what we already know: that the minimums are lower so it takes longer to get up to 14M Km^2 especially as there is a tendency to approach a thermal equilibrium thickness and that thickness appears to be decreasing over time.

So maybe it is more a case of why isn't it last to reach 14M km^2 with natural variability being the likely answer.

I agree that freeze seasons are weakening but if the average date of reaching 14M Km^2 is moving relatively fast, does this imply that the lower minimums are a significant factor? If maximum volume isn't changing much particularly over last 4 minimums does this imply that the strength of the freeze season isn't a particularly significant factor in rapidly changing date of reaching 14M km^2? I may not be thinking straight and they may well both be interlinked effects. So I probably shouldn't rush to judge how much emphasis should be given to each.

jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #622 on: February 21, 2014, 07:26:48 PM »

Or maybe it just supports what we already know: that the minimums are lower so it takes longer to get up to 14M Km^2 especially as there is a tendency to approach a thermal equilibrium thickness and that thickness appears to be decreasing over time.

So maybe it is more a case of why isn't it last to reach 14M km^2 with natural variability being the likely answer.

I agree that freeze seasons are weakening but if the average date of reaching 14M Km^2 is moving relatively fast, does this imply that the lower minimums are a significant factor? If maximum volume isn't changing much particularly over last 4 minimums does this imply that the strength of the freeze season isn't a particularly significant factor in rapidly changing date of reaching 14M km^2? I may not be thinking straight and they may well both be interlinked effects. So I probably shouldn't rush to judge how much emphasis should be given to each.

Not sure I can agree with your first conclusion.  Contrary-wise, while minimums have gotten smaller,  the net refreeze volume, area and extent have *increased* significantly.  The minimum won't directly affect the rate at which heat gets dumped to support the refreeze, and in fact to some degree is a positive feedback to ice creation.

I'll hypothesize that the date is advancing because the total heat in the system is steadily advancing, and has reached a key threshold relative to freezing. Even with positive feed backs like increased exposure of ocean to atmosphere can't shed the heat fast enough to compensate.

I intuit we might have a long term predictive indicator here.  What kind of curve do we get graphing the date at which extent passes 14000000 KM2 I wonder?
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crandles

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #623 on: February 21, 2014, 07:48:41 PM »

Not sure I can agree with your first conclusion.  Contrary-wise, while minimums have gotten smaller,  the net refreeze volume, area and extent have *increased* significantly.  The minimum won't directly affect the rate at which heat gets dumped to support the refreeze, and in fact to some degree is a positive feedback to ice creation.

I'll hypothesize that the date is advancing because the total heat in the system is steadily advancing, and has reached a key threshold relative to freezing. Even with positive feed backs like increased exposure of ocean to atmosphere can't shed the heat fast enough to compensate.

I intuit we might have a long term predictive indicator here.  What kind of curve do we get graphing the date at which extent passes 14000000 KM2 I wonder?

"the net refreeze volume, area and extent have *increased* significantly" but the maximums are still getting lower. I think the date of maximum may get later as minimums get smaller because the limits of the maximum get smaller and further north so that we have to wait for the sun to get a little higher before the extent/area maximum is reached. This trend will be very small compared to the 18 day a decade trend shown. I suspect the extra water further north will accelerate the melt despite the shortening of the melt season.

I am not really sure we get a 'long term predictive indicator' nor what this predictive indicator indicates.

Suppose we considered dates on which extent went above 10M km^2, would you accept the the minimum might have a lot to do with those dates?

Still if you see use in it, feel free to investigate.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #624 on: February 21, 2014, 07:59:31 PM »
I find it interesting "almost" sea ice free conditions around Svalbard in February, not surprised if they get a very unusual "spring":
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #625 on: February 21, 2014, 09:13:32 PM »
I find it interesting "almost" sea ice free conditions around Svalbard in February, not surprised if they get a very unusual "spring":

What is almost as alarming to me is when I see all of that red and yellow, on the UNI Bremen chart, approaching the NP.

Beginning to wonder if this is the year that Neven gets to windsurf at the North Pole!! That might be an interesting poll to conduct.
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CraigsIsland

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #626 on: February 23, 2014, 08:52:25 AM »
Week or so doesn't look good at all for temps around selvard. Some 36 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. If there's not much ice cover in that area around spring, I'm concerned that water will heat even more so.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #627 on: February 23, 2014, 10:18:38 AM »
Week or so doesn't look good at all for temps around selvard. Some 36 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. If there's not much ice cover in that area around spring, I'm concerned that water will heat even more so.

There is so much wrong here. 

There will be more local heat available, sooner, by way of direct exchange from ocean.

That'll mean more energy locally for H2O vapor and precipitation, which is not good for the ice.

The lack of peripheral ice will mean the core pack, right up the the pole, will be more vulnerable to the effects of wind, wave and tide.

We haven't gotten to the extra energy picked up because of what amounts to a reversal of the usual albedo.

The Bears on Svalbard are going to be very, very hungry, I expect.
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CraigsIsland

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #628 on: February 24, 2014, 09:22:36 PM »
Pretty interesting -and horrifying- if you're someone involved in data collection for the salvard region.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #629 on: February 25, 2014, 04:46:25 AM »
IJIS:

14,000,104 km2  (February 24, 2014)  3rd lowest

going back down?

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #630 on: February 25, 2014, 02:22:18 PM »
IJIS:

14,000,104 km2  (February 24, 2014)  3rd lowest

going back down?

Yes. Three days running now, including the largest single-day drop since late August.

For the record, we're fewer than two weeks from the average maximum in extent (and area, too, for that matter).

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #631 on: February 26, 2014, 06:06:14 AM »
IJIS:

13,989,356 km2 (February 25, 2014). Dropped below the 14th million mark after a short visit! 
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #632 on: March 10, 2014, 04:25:16 AM »
IJIS:

14,015,926 km2 (March 9, 2014) the lowest ever recorded on this
date! 

And 645,037 km2 below 2000s average.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2014, 04:37:35 AM by Espen »
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #633 on: March 11, 2014, 12:21:16 AM »
Cross-posted from: "2014 sea ice area and extent data"



As in previous years, I periodically plot Extent in time periods anywhere from 6 weeks to 3 months to show the currents year's position relative to selected previous years.

It's that time of year when the annual maximum is reached, however, it is far too early to prognosticate what the September minimum will be.  As this chart shows, 2012 was anomalously high during March and we all know what happened that year.

What this chart clearly shows is that "2014 Was Not A RECOVERY!"

It also shows that the true decline in Extent does not begin unitl early April.

I will periodically post a chart linke this from time to time.  Any suggestions as to how to make it more useful are welcome.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #634 on: March 13, 2014, 06:12:10 AM »
IJIS,


14,233,829 km2(March 12, 2014) second highest measured this season. 
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #635 on: March 14, 2014, 06:42:37 AM »
IJIS;

14,300,508 km2(March 13, 2014) highest this season!
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #636 on: March 15, 2014, 10:29:45 AM »
IJIS:

14,305,537 km2(March 14, 2014) another highest this season.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #637 on: March 15, 2014, 10:52:16 AM »
A lot of fragmentation around Barentsz heading into Barentsz open water (Due to recent winds) so some of the recent increase is the breakup , and drift off, of the peripheral pack.
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #638 on: March 15, 2014, 09:49:02 PM »
A lot of fragmentation around Barentsz heading into Barentsz open water (Due to recent winds) so some of the recent increase is the breakup , and drift off, of the peripheral pack.
It would surprise me if breakup and dispersal were not the lions share of the increase in extent.  There does seem to be some freeze happening, but not near as much as required to push the extent the way it has risen.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #639 on: March 16, 2014, 08:37:14 AM »
IJIS;

14,329,192 km2(March 15, 2014) another seasonal high.

Jdallen, yes I agree thats where the "growth" is coming from!
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #640 on: March 16, 2014, 03:46:23 PM »
I think Wipneus posted an animation showing this very clearly on the  Daily SMOS Ice Thickness thread.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #641 on: March 17, 2014, 05:13:00 AM »
IJIS:

14,388,611 km2(March 16, 2014)  another day with a seasonal high.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #642 on: March 18, 2014, 05:18:50 AM »
IJIS:

14,419,194 km2 (March 17, 2014)  a new high of the season + 30,583 km2 from the day before.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #643 on: March 19, 2014, 05:35:40 AM »
IJIS:

14,437,490 km2 (March 18, 2014) a new season high!
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #644 on: March 20, 2014, 05:38:33 AM »
IJIS:

14,448,299 km2 (March 19, 2014)  a new maximum of the season up 10,809 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #645 on: March 21, 2014, 06:14:18 AM »
IJIS:

14,448,416 km2 (March 20, 2014)  another 2014 maximum.
A whopping 117 km2 "growth" from previous date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #646 on: March 22, 2014, 09:17:37 AM »
IJIS:

14,408,834 km2(March 21, 2014) dropping 39,5982 km2 from previous date and 2014 maximum so far.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #647 on: March 23, 2014, 08:55:28 AM »
IJIS:

14,325,446 km2(March 22, 2014)

Down 83,388 km2 from previous date.
 
And 122,970 km2 from 2014 maximum.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #648 on: March 24, 2014, 04:43:40 AM »
IJIS:

14,156,064 km2 (March 23, 2014)  a massive 169,382 km2 drop from previous date.
Have a ice day!

jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #649 on: March 24, 2014, 07:54:17 AM »
IJIS:

14,156,064 km2 (March 23, 2014)  a massive 169,382 km2 drop from previous date.

I'm not surprised, and have been expecting to see this.  Most of the recent increase in extent came in peripheral areas of arctic ice.  Right now, they (and the eastern arctic as well!) are under the blowtorch.  I'll be interested to see where most of the retreat in extent shows up.
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