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lanevn

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1000 on: March 08, 2015, 06:29:55 PM »
And Papa Bear is coming to chase off the small ones.
Can you link this service?

Laurent

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1001 on: March 08, 2015, 07:25:15 PM »

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1002 on: March 09, 2015, 05:24:23 AM »
IJIS:

13,649,869 km2(March 8, 2015)down 9,547 km2 from previous and record low for the date.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2015, 05:15:01 AM by Espen »
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Sleepy

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1003 on: March 09, 2015, 06:12:45 AM »
lanevn, sorry for not linking. Laurent is correct.

So, a short hiatus (in the demise). We're probably entering an ice age!  ;D
A bit more serious; I don't like this.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1004 on: March 10, 2015, 05:24:46 AM »
IJIS:

13,629,197 km2(March 9, 2015)down 20,672 km2 from previous and record low for the date.

and 1,031,766 km2 below 2000s average.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2015, 05:46:54 AM by Espen »
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1005 on: March 10, 2015, 08:42:57 AM »
the (now) believable very late max last year prevents me from calling the maximum yet. guessing the extent will go up from the current value because of the early breakup of fringes. consider a large area with 80% coverage experiences a strong stationary low pressure and spreads out to 15% coverage.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1006 on: March 11, 2015, 06:18:05 AM »
IJIS:

13,623,768 km2(March 10, 2015)down 5,429 km2 from previous and in record low territory.

1,038,139 km2 below 2000s average.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1007 on: March 12, 2015, 06:05:49 AM »
IJIS:

13,648,280 km2(March 11, 2015)up 24,512 km2 from previous.
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viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1008 on: March 13, 2015, 06:06:24 AM »
As of today, copying the gain of the biggest remaining March gain year in the IJIS time series will not take us above 13.94 million km² before 2016. This means the Feb 15 'Mad Max' certainly *is* the 2015 maximum.  ;D

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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1009 on: March 13, 2015, 06:09:34 AM »
IJIS:

13,695,914 km2(March 12, 2015)up 47,634 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1010 on: March 14, 2015, 07:49:16 AM »
IJIS:

13,686,416 km2(March 13, 2015)down 9,498 km2 from previous.
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Sourabh

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1011 on: March 14, 2015, 10:06:19 AM »
Yay...

Does it mean we peaked? It is already mid March. I don't think we would have much gain left now.

viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1012 on: March 14, 2015, 10:39:59 AM »
You're quite right, Sourabh. Any major gains now will be compensated by melt elsewhere.
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LRC1962

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1013 on: March 14, 2015, 02:18:06 PM »
Ice EXTENT is not a straightforward predictable melt freeze equation. Extent is the out boundary that has 15% or greater proportion of ice according to a grid. Therefore you technically may be having a lot of  melt, but if that ice is spread out thin enough you could have a high extent (forget that point many times myself). Whereas area tries to calculate the exact amount of ice. That is a calculation that has a broad error bound just because it is not easy to calculate.
Point is if a wind comes in at the right/wrong angle hitting a very compact area and spreads it out, the extent in that area could escalate rapidly and depending on temperatures may not melt that fast. Therefore we may get a sudden large increase in extent.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1014 on: March 15, 2015, 06:12:34 AM »
IJIS:

13,686,287 km2(March 14, 2015)down 129 km2 from previous.

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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1015 on: March 16, 2015, 05:21:35 AM »
IJIS:

13,724,438 km2(March 15, 2015) up 38,151 km2 from previous.

217,622 km2 below max. February 15 2015.

and

847,381 km2 below 2000s average.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2015, 05:27:29 AM by Espen »
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1016 on: March 17, 2015, 05:45:57 AM »
IJIS:

13,755,789 km2(March 16, 2015)up 31,351 km2 from previous.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1017 on: March 17, 2015, 12:31:35 PM »
IJIS:

13,755,789 km2(March 16, 2015)up 31,351 km2 from previous.

2015 is still in first place, but just barely; 2006 is only 21k behind, so another day similar to yesterday will end the current string of consecutive days in first place, which stands at 18.

viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1018 on: March 17, 2015, 01:54:33 PM »
Rather unique situation for March.

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seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1019 on: March 17, 2015, 07:31:45 PM »
Thanks for your plot above, viddaloo. These lines: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 evolve parallel to x-axis (2015) some maybe slightly grow. This means that the melting seasons of these years (2015 no exception) start somehow later than previously.

It is very probable 2015 extent might have reached its maximum in February 15, but still the extent is now very close to what was then (that is why I say it is no exception).


viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1020 on: March 17, 2015, 07:53:36 PM »
Thanks, seaicesailor.

I keep forgetting to add 2003 and 2004 when posting publicly, thinking they're ancient history, but as you can see, 2004 is even lower than 2014 on the 16th.

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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1021 on: March 18, 2015, 06:07:33 AM »
IJIS:

13,720,322 km2(March 17, 2015)down 35,467 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1022 on: March 19, 2015, 05:59:20 AM »
IJIS:

13,708,005 km2(March 18, 2015)down 12,317 km2 from previous.
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OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1023 on: March 19, 2015, 12:18:16 PM »
IJIS:

13,708,005 km2(March 18, 2015)down 12,317 km2 from previous.

Espen,

I think you can put your crow back in the freezer for another year.  It appears that you won't be dining  on "Crow Stew" this year.
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PhilDPortsmouth

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1024 on: March 19, 2015, 04:27:24 PM »
Not sure if this is the right place to ask but on the graphs page, wasn't the 3rd down on the left always the IJIS/JAXA (or was it uni bremen). 3rd down in the middle seems not updated....
Anyway which is the "go to graphs" for daily area and extent that people are looking at?
Thanks
Phil

folke_kelm

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1025 on: March 19, 2015, 04:40:56 PM »
What´s so bad with crow stew? My cat catched a crow some years ago and brought it home and i decided not to throw it away. It was really a very good stew.  ;D

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1026 on: March 19, 2015, 04:48:14 PM »
IJIS:

13,708,005 km2(March 18, 2015)down 12,317 km2 from previous.

Espen,

I think you can put your crow back in the freezer for another year.  It appears that you won't be dining  on "Crow Stew" this year.

OldLeatherneck

It was not my intention either ;)
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Neven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1027 on: March 19, 2015, 05:26:47 PM »
Not sure if this is the right place to ask but on the graphs page, wasn't the 3rd down on the left always the IJIS/JAXA (or was it uni bremen). 3rd down in the middle seems not updated....
Anyway which is the "go to graphs" for daily area and extent that people are looking at?
Thanks
Phil

Hi Phil,

IJIS - which stands for IARC-JAXA information system, JAXA being the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency and IARC the International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks - has interrupted the delivery of data and graphs. To be honest, I don't know why this is and whether they'll be back in action.

But here's the thing: there's an alternative graph at ADS, but I can't hot-link to it for the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page (or ASIG). I've tried, but somehow it doesn't work, and so I've left it open for now. Soon, before the melting season starts, I'm going to update the entire ASIG and see which graphs and maps are still updated, which aren't, and see if there are any replacements out there.

I hope to find an alternative for the IJIS SIE graph somewhere. If anyone knows where I can find one that can be hot-linked on the ASIG, please let me know.
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Wipneus

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1028 on: March 19, 2015, 06:25:31 PM »
« Last Edit: March 19, 2015, 06:31:39 PM by Wipneus »

Neven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1029 on: March 19, 2015, 08:21:57 PM »
Let me try. These seem to work at least from the forum pages.

Works on a google sites site:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/test

That's strange, Wip, I'm not seeing anything on your test page.

Quote
These are the links
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/data/graph/Sea_Ice_Extent_N_prev_v2_L.png
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/data/graph/Sea_Ice_Extent_N_v2_L.png

I tried these last week, but somehow the Google Sites editor won't accept them. As a Google Sites user you're probably familiar with this:



Normally the linked graph shows up straight away and I can click OK. But not with these graphs.

Not working in Firefox or Chrome. Weird, eh?  ???
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Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1030 on: March 19, 2015, 08:27:52 PM »
Neven: I had no problem to see Wipneus graphs... I agree that it's weird! could it have anything to do with pop-ups or so?

Best, LMV

Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1031 on: March 19, 2015, 08:31:47 PM »
Worked fine for me using both Firefox and IE.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Neven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1032 on: March 19, 2015, 09:48:48 PM »
Very strange. Is it because I'm still on Windows XP?  :o
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sunkensheep

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1033 on: March 19, 2015, 11:18:39 PM »
I also could not see the images on Wipneus' test page, I found the problem was an ad-blocker.

The string "ads" at start of the domain where the image is hosted (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/) was causing the image to be blocked.

Neven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1034 on: March 20, 2015, 12:24:10 AM »
Holy Mary, mother of God, my stupidity knows no bounds. Again the Adblocker, just like when I couldn't sea the interface on ADS, just two weeks ago. And then suggesting it has something to do with my OS.  :-\

That's too much, even for my standards.  ;D

Now I was able to put the graph on the ASIG. Thank you for your patience with donkeyboy.
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PhilDPortsmouth

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1035 on: March 20, 2015, 12:50:31 AM »
Brilliant, now working, thank you, it's your commitment and hard work that know no bounds!
Best wishes
Phil

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1036 on: March 20, 2015, 02:03:24 AM »
Holy Mary, mother of God, my stupidity knows no bounds. Again the Adblocker, just like when I couldn't sea the interface on ADS, just two weeks ago. And then suggesting it has something to do with my OS.  :-\

That's too much, even for my standards.  ;D

Now I was able to put the graph on the ASIG. Thank you for your patience with donkeyboy.

Just wait until you've aged another 20 or 30 years.  What were "stupid" mistakes on a monthly, or less often basis, are now occurring on a daily, or more frequent, basis.  It's an exponential process.
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epiphyte

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1037 on: March 20, 2015, 05:49:58 AM »
F all' Y'all I on adblock - if you click on the adblock toolbar icon (a white hand on an octagonal red background), then enable advanced options, you can add https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/ to the list of sites from which to "allow all ads", and you'll be able to see the graphs without having to put up with the stuff you installed adblock to be rid of in the first place...

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1038 on: March 20, 2015, 06:08:52 AM »
IJIS:

13,717,193 km2(March 19, 2015)up 9,188 km2 from previous.
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LRC1962

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1039 on: March 20, 2015, 08:06:44 AM »
F all' Y'all I on adblock - if you click on the adblock toolbar icon (a white hand on an octagonal red background), then enable advanced options, you can add https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/ to the list of sites from which to "allow all ads", and you'll be able to see the graphs without having to put up with the stuff you installed adblock to be rid of in the first place...
Some of you may have added Ghostery which is similar and you may have to do the something for it.
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viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1040 on: March 20, 2015, 09:00:03 AM »
IJIS:

13,717,193 km2(March 19, 2015)up 9,188 km2 from previous.
I feel almost off topic for being on topic, but hey! I don't think 9000 is going to threaten the Feb Mad Max  ;D
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1041 on: March 21, 2015, 05:28:36 AM »
IJIS:

13,705,999 km2(March 20, 2015)down 11,194 km2 from previous.
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1042 on: March 21, 2015, 08:22:41 AM »
IJIS:

13,717,193 km2(March 19, 2015)up 9,188 km2 from previous.
I feel almost off topic for being on topic, but hey! I don't think 9000 is going to threaten the Feb Mad Max  ;D
In a word... Nope.  I think we're past any possibility the Feb  max will be exceeded.
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viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1043 on: March 21, 2015, 10:39:36 AM »
This, however, can't, won't and doesn't last:



And it's another 22! We remember the now verified 'rule' of the Arctic, that if a preliminary winter max is not exceeded for 22 days, it is the very max.

I bet no other year was continually lowest for as long as 22 days? 2012, perhaps?

EDIT: Oops. How 'bout Jul 25 — Oct 15 for a stand–alone lowest performance! That's 2012.

Better change that to a Feb–Mar bet and say: I bet no other year was continually lowest for as long as 22 days, in Feb–Mar, before anyone notices.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2015, 10:55:05 AM by viddaloo »
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viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1044 on: March 21, 2015, 12:10:53 PM »
And I would be right. Interestingly, by January 2015, no year was continually lowest in March for more than 5 days (2011), and no year continually lowest in February and/or March for more than 10 days (2006).

Seems it's pretty hard to be lowest for a very long time during this season, making this 22–day reign very significant.

EDIT: 2006 actually had a March lead that lasted more than 5 days, but it went into April, so fooled me at first. 2006's lead in March was for 18 days, and the total length of this lead when April is included was 31 days.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2015, 12:32:11 PM by viddaloo »
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helorime

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1045 on: March 21, 2015, 07:54:28 PM »
Viddaloo.  I have to say that I have been looking at your graphs for a long time and I have no idea what they are of.  They have dates on the X axis, ok, I get that.  Color coding by year, I understand that too, and then numbers on the Y axis that are amounts of something.  What is that something?  500k or a million of what?  It cannot be total sea ice concentration, nor area, nor thickness..... it is too big to be change from the previous day, nor deviation from the norm.  What is it?  I am clearly missing something obvious here.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1046 on: March 21, 2015, 08:01:33 PM »
I think that particular graph is anomaly relative to 2015 - see the line at zero along the bottom representing 2015 itself.  Not a particularly useful measurement and doesn't tell you anything that raw extent wouldn't, but hey.

Other graphs from viddaloo are more confusing.

viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1047 on: March 21, 2015, 08:09:11 PM »
Viddaloo.  I have to say that I have been looking at your graphs for a long time and I have no idea what they are of.  They have dates on the X axis, ok, I get that.  Color coding by year, I understand that too, and then numbers on the Y axis that are amounts of something.  What is that something?  500k or a million of what?  It cannot be total sea ice concentration, nor area, nor thickness..... it is too big to be change from the previous day, nor deviation from the norm.  What is it?  I am clearly missing something obvious here.

Very hard to answer in general terms, helorime. Different plots will have different Y–axis, so hard to tell what you want the answer to be to this question. In general, though, it is always a good advice to read chart headings and other peripheral prose, from which the answer may emerge.

PS: If you feel dazed and confused today, just think of the very first men and women on this planet, glancing up at the stars!  ;D
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helorime

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1048 on: March 21, 2015, 08:18:53 PM »
The title on the graph said "2% of max extent gone, lowest as on February 27th" but all the numbers were + not negative, I am talking about the first graph above these comments.  Not feeling dazed and confused, feeling like the graph is poorly labeled.  I think Pete Ellis's comments make sense.  I had not paid attention to the fact that the X-ais was blue and might be 2015, with the other numbers representing sea ice extent for a particular year with the 2015 value subtracted.  If that is the case then the graph should be titled something like "Sea ice extent difference from 2015 by date"
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viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1049 on: March 21, 2015, 08:30:17 PM »
The title on the graph said "2% of max extent gone, lowest as on February 27th"

Great! That's almost the entire first line, helorime. After the comma, you get "but with a Friday
margin of just 68k km² back to 2006."

Do you have to read all of that? Of course not! I assume you live in a somewhat free country and can do what you want. Only if you were curious about what was displayed in the plot, you would naturally proceed to read the entire sentence.

So from 2015 (lowest) to 2006 there is 68k km². The "k" of the Y–axis is the same as the "k" of the chart title. K is short for kilo which means 1000. 68k would then be 68 000. 500k = 500 000 and so forth and so on. Then you are confused about the "m". The "m" stands for million, which is "a thousand thousands".

Get it?
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