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Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1150 on: April 07, 2015, 07:31:09 PM »
Thx Espen! :)

Did some fun calculating with the IJIS numbers.. From April 6 to April 30 the melting during the years 2003-2014 have been in the range of 0,72-1,27 million km2. The lowest values are  roughly from 2009 (-0,72), 2005 (-0,73) and 2007 (-0,78) while the highest are from 2003-2004 with -1,25 and -1,27 million km2.

These numbers indicates that the SIE number at April 30 most likely will be the lowest on record for the date. Only if we end up with a very slow melting like 2009 and 2005 we won't have the lowest SIE on record for April 30.

//LMV

viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1151 on: April 07, 2015, 09:54:21 PM »
2014/15 with 9.06 m km² saw the lowest refreeze since the 2006/7 freeze season, and also the 2nd biggest failure to keep up with same–year summer melt (after 2010/11).

Notice also in particular how closely refreeze follows same–year melt (and not the opposite):



2014 also had the lowest summer extent melt since 2006, but thanks to the subsequent bad freeze, we're lower than ever at the winter maximum in February. If we were to beat 2012 summer melt with half a million and barely break the chart, autumn minimum extent would be at 1.94 m km².

Other remarkable tidbits: Freeze has only twice been significantly higher than preceding melt; in 2007/8 and 2011/12. If we get a record 12 m km² melt this year, will refreeze be able to almost follow, as it did in 2012/13? I highly doubt it, following this winter. I'm also almost positive it won't be higher, but the Arctic is full of surprises.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1152 on: April 08, 2015, 06:10:10 AM »
IJIS:

13,409,765 km2(April 7, 2015)down 36,123 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1153 on: April 09, 2015, 06:12:48 AM »
IJIS:

13,387,030 km2(April 8, 2015)down 22,735 km2 from previous.
 2nd lowest for the date (2006 -27,236 km2)
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1154 on: April 10, 2015, 06:23:22 AM »
IJIS:

13,415,661 km2(April 9, 2015)up 28,631 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest for the date.
Have a ice day!

viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1155 on: April 10, 2015, 03:40:25 PM »
Late maximum, Neven?  ;D
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Siffy

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1156 on: April 10, 2015, 04:08:30 PM »
Late maximum, Neven?  ;D

 >:( Really Vid?

viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1157 on: April 10, 2015, 04:35:03 PM »
I was talking to Neven, Siffy. Really talking to Neven, if you will. I should add that there's no reason for even other people to go online to ask me if I'm really talking to Neven, because I am, and I already told Siffy that I really am doing that. This means I really am doing that even if other people ask me the same question. I'm sure most of you understand this, but there are a few people everywhere who really demand you take a fresh look at information and knowledge about our world. I choose to view them as challenges, not problems :)
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Siffy

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1158 on: April 10, 2015, 05:21:45 PM »
 ::)

I see your attempts at being obtuse know literally no bounds. Your chiding of Neven in your previous post is rather obviously what I was getting at.

Mind you I shouldn't be surprised you responded as you did.

viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1159 on: April 10, 2015, 05:38:52 PM »
You don't have to be THAT angry everytime someone makes a joke. It sounds like you want to level all of Norway with a rain of nuclear bombs just to get at me for writing that tiny little joke. That's overkill, Siffy. Grab a beer :)
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Neven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1160 on: April 10, 2015, 05:59:32 PM »
Late maximum, Neven?  ;D

I never said it would happen, I said it was possible. I'm not sure if you noticed, but all it would've taken was 59K km2 for the second peak to be higher than the first peak. Did you know all this when you valiantly called the max?  ;D
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viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1161 on: April 10, 2015, 06:44:53 PM »
Espen was 5 days ahead of me and thus 5 days more valiant, Neven  ;)

I felt slow & conservative then, but to be sure (statistically), I had to wait 22 days. No winter max has ever come after the previous preliminary max was not beaten for 22 days (or more than 22, I can't remember exactly).

With the 'long plateaus' being highlighted as a new trend and something we must expect more of in the near future, however, the 22–day rule-of-thumb is likely to become invalid, and changed into an n–day rule–of–thumb, which takes the usefulness out of such a rule with the same.

Who needs a rule that says 'it can't take more than 22 days except when it does take more'? Again: Bad Arctic.
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viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1162 on: April 10, 2015, 06:58:43 PM »
Just for the record: This is 2015's first little uptick after we left the Plateau. All the other years in the Plateau Plot have either had the uptick already or will have it from Thursday to Friday (today).

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Peter Ellis

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1163 on: April 10, 2015, 09:34:58 PM »
Can someone remind me how to ignore people on this site?  PM to avoid mucking up the thread.  Thanks.

Edit:  You go to "Profile", and then under "My Profile" there's an option to edit your Buddy and Ignore lists.  This should hopefully be the direct link.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=profile;area=lists;sa=ignore;u=68
« Last Edit: April 10, 2015, 11:19:37 PM by Peter Ellis »

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1164 on: April 10, 2015, 09:59:55 PM »
Please!!!
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1165 on: April 11, 2015, 01:39:13 AM »
Can someone remind me how to ignore people on this site?  PM to avoid mucking up the thread.  Thanks.

Edit:  You go to "Profile", and then under "My Profile" there's an option to edit your Buddy and Ignore lists.  This should hopefully be the direct link.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=profile;area=lists;sa=ignore;u=68

Thank you.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1166 on: April 11, 2015, 09:27:11 AM »
IJIS:

13,432,330 km2(April 10, 2015)up 16,669 km2 from previous and 2nd lowest for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1167 on: April 12, 2015, 09:27:46 AM »
IJIS:

13,446,594 km2(April 11, 2015)up 14,264 km2 from previous and 3rd lowest, 2006 and 2007 was lower for date.
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1168 on: April 12, 2015, 11:37:00 AM »
Woow ! It's a rebound! The world is not coming to  an end!
Or I've had a few drinks and pretending to  be a denier ;D
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Gray-Wolf

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1169 on: April 12, 2015, 06:08:54 PM »
Woow ! It's a rebound! The world is not coming to  an end!
Or I've had a few drinks and pretending to  be a denier ;D

I too find a couple of good Malts and I can also ignore things  even if they happen to be right under my nose....... and that if I screw my eyes up tight  any graph can be made to support anything I want it to!.........

I do recall a chappie showing a ball bouncing off down hill as a way to better envisage Arctic 'rebound'?
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ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

viddaloo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1170 on: April 12, 2015, 06:22:20 PM »
David, the correlation between alcohol consumption and climate change denial is statistically insignificant. What you have 'revealed' is just noise (and booze).
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1171 on: April 13, 2015, 05:23:23 AM »
IJIS:

13,443,962 km2(April 12, 2015)down 2,632 km2 4th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006 and 2007 was lower.
Have a ice day!

Nick_Naylor

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1172 on: April 13, 2015, 02:57:11 PM »
David, the correlation between alcohol consumption and climate change denial is statistically insignificant.

True, but the correlation between right-wing Kool Aid consumption and climate change denial is practically perfect :o

DungeonMaster

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1173 on: April 14, 2015, 12:40:05 AM »
David, the correlation between alcohol consumption and climate change denial is statistically insignificant.

True, but the correlation between right-wing Kool Aid consumption and climate change denial is practically perfect :o

Kool-aid theory was treated by Professor Inferno as soon as 2012: http://denialdepot.blogspot.com/2012/10/a-new-theory-of-climate.html

We miss you, Professor.
This forum helps me to feel less uncomfortable about "doing something" about the melting Arctic and the warming world.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1174 on: April 14, 2015, 05:42:50 AM »
IJIS:

13,443,635 km2(April 13, 2015)down 327 km2 from previous 4th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006 and 2007 was lower.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1175 on: April 15, 2015, 06:02:30 AM »
IJIS:

13,402,324 km2(April 14, 2015)down 41,311 km2 from previous  4th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006 and 2007 was lower.
Have a ice day!

jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1176 on: April 15, 2015, 06:10:53 AM »
IJIS:

13,402,324 km2(April 14, 2015)down 41,311 km2 from previous  4th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006 and 2007 was lower.
Intuition sez... watch for significant up-coming losses in the Hudson, Greenland, Barents and Kara seas.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1177 on: April 16, 2015, 06:10:23 AM »
IJIS:

13,355,159 km2(April 15, 2015)down 47,165 km2 from previous 4th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006 and 2007 was lower.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1178 on: April 17, 2015, 06:14:24 AM »
IJIS:

13,362,077 km2(April 16, 2015)up 6,918 km2 from previous 5th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2014 was lower.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1179 on: April 18, 2015, 05:26:04 AM »
IJIS:

13,363,066 km2(April 17, 2015)up 989 km2 from previous 5th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2014 was lower.
Have a ice day!

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1180 on: April 18, 2015, 01:49:13 PM »
IJIS:

13,363,066 km2(April 17, 2015)up 989 km2 from previous 5th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2014 was lower.
SIE has dropped all of 24k over the past 9 days, a period which on average (2010-2015) sees a loss of about 280k km2. However, 2015 is still >250k below the 2010-15 average. And keep in mind that the current calendar decade has tended to see greater extent in the 3rd and 4th weeks of April than was experienced in the 2000-2009 decade; the current decade's average extent doesn't differentiate itself much from the previous decade until May is well and truly underway.

Now, how much longer this "bench" will last is anyone's guess...

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1181 on: April 19, 2015, 09:14:10 AM »
IJIS:

13,343,616 km2(April 18, 2015)down 19,450 km2 from previous 5th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2014 was lower.
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1182 on: April 19, 2015, 09:55:45 AM »
IJIS:

13,363,066 km2(April 17, 2015)up 989 km2 from previous 5th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2014 was lower.
SIE has dropped all of 24k over the past 9 days, a period which on average (2010-2015) sees a loss of about 280k km2. However, 2015 is still >250k below the 2010-15 average. And keep in mind that the current calendar decade has tended to see greater extent in the 3rd and 4th weeks of April than was experienced in the 2000-2009 decade; the current decade's average extent doesn't differentiate itself much from the previous decade until May is well and truly underway.

Now, how much longer this "bench" will last is anyone's guess...
According to Wipneus ( http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg50237.html#msg50237) there has been a late increase in area and extent in the North Pacific masking continued drops in the main arctic basin.  Neven posted,  (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1149.msg50444.html#msg50444) suggesting a wave of warmer air is moving into the North Pacific in the next week so the rise in that  area should be reversed and I  expect the decline will become fairly  rapid within a week.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1183 on: April 19, 2015, 11:07:16 AM »
IJIS:

<snippage>

Now, how much longer this "bench" will last is anyone's guess...
According to Wipneus ( http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg50237.html#msg50237) there has been a late increase in area and extent in the North Pacific masking continued drops in the main arctic basin.  Neven posted,  (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1149.msg50444.html#msg50444) suggesting a wave of warmer air is moving into the North Pacific in the next week so the rise in that  area should be reversed and I  expect the decline will become fairly  rapid within a week.

It had to get cold because two weeks ago I thought (and said as much) that I thought it would be improbable for the Bering ice to last much more than another 10 days.  It had to embarrass me first before succumbing. ;)
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crandles

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1184 on: April 19, 2015, 11:23:29 AM »
I thought it would be improbable for the Bering ice to last much more than another 10 days.  It had to embarrass me first before succumbing. ;)

I have thought that in a previous year. I think Chukchi ice keeps flowing out to keep the Bering ice level up.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1185 on: April 20, 2015, 05:26:56 AM »
IJIS:

13,325,420 km2(April 19, 2015)down 18,196 km2 from previous 5th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2014 was lower.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1186 on: April 21, 2015, 06:05:24 AM »
IJIS:

13,292,956 km2(April 20, 2015)down 32,464 km2 from previous 5th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2014 was lower.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1187 on: April 22, 2015, 06:22:26 AM »
IJIS:

13,311,231 km2(April 21, 2015)up 18,275 km2  from previous 5th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2014 was lower.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1188 on: April 23, 2015, 05:48:52 AM »
IJIS:

13,302,595 km2(April 22, 2015)down 8,836 km2  from previous 6th lowest for for the date 2004, 2006, 2007,2009 and 2014 was lower.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1189 on: April 24, 2015, 06:15:01 AM »
IJIS:

13,212,400 km2(April 23, 2015)down 90,195 km2 from previous 5th lowest  for for the date 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2014 was lower.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2015, 06:28:09 AM by Espen »
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andy_t_roo

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1190 on: April 24, 2015, 12:40:57 PM »
(April 23, 2015)down 90,195 km2

do you know what the earliest century break has been?

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1191 on: April 24, 2015, 02:19:26 PM »
(April 23, 2015)down 90,195 km2

do you know what the earliest century break has been?
There've been a number of earlier ones. There were March century breaks in 2003, 2004, 2009, 2012, and 2014; 2004 experienced four in a five-day stretch in early April. Even last year saw one on April 16. IOW, they're unusual, but by no means unheard of...

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1192 on: April 24, 2015, 03:19:26 PM »
2015 had one by late Feb if I remember Vid's calendar-like figures well.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2015, 03:24:36 PM by seaicesailor »

DavidR

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1193 on: April 24, 2015, 04:35:27 PM »
(April 23, 2015)down 90,195 km2

do you know what the earliest century break has been?
There've been a number of earlier ones. There were March century breaks in 2003, 2004, 2009, 2012, and 2014; 2004 experienced four in a five-day stretch in early April. Even last year saw one on April 16. IOW, they're unusual, but by no means unheard of...
In the NSIDC record there has been 5 century  breaks  this year  28 th Mar, 24 Mar, 17 Mar, 5 Mar, 17th Feb.  I  suggest this is due to the mobility of fractured ice rather than any  real melt.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1194 on: April 24, 2015, 05:19:44 PM »
(April 23, 2015)down 90,195 km2

do you know what the earliest century break has been?
There've been a number of earlier ones. There were March century breaks in 2003, 2004, 2009, 2012, and 2014; 2004 experienced four in a five-day stretch in early April. Even last year saw one on April 16. IOW, they're unusual, but by no means unheard of...
In the NSIDC record there has been 5 century  breaks  this year  28 th Mar, 24 Mar, 17 Mar, 5 Mar, 17th Feb.  I  suggest this is due to the mobility of fractured ice rather than any  real melt.

Concur.  The heat to produce actual melt hasn't been there, Even with the incredible persistent positive temperature anomalies. 

I think the impact of that heat won't be seen until mid summer.
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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1195 on: April 25, 2015, 08:28:59 AM »
century break today: 13,110,194 km2(April 24, 2015), down 102k

plg

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1196 on: April 25, 2015, 09:55:35 AM »
Some irrelevant statistics regarding downward century breaks:

There has been in total 836 single century breaks in the NSIDC records, 56 double century breaks, 3 triple century breaks (2007-07-01, 2009-07-01, 2013-07-01) and one quadruple (400.48 on 2005-07-21).

Per month data:
Jan12
Feb23
Mar43
Apr83
May80
Jun157
Jul312
Aug163
Sep13
Oct0
Nov4
Dec6

So, as pointed out they are mildly unusual, but not rare. Assuming an even distribution there would be on average slightly less than one in February, a little over one in March and almost two in April. However, the distribution over the years is far from even, but there is not an obvious trend either:

 1987 │    16
 1988 │    35
 1989 │    28
 1990 │    42
 1991 │    29
 1992 │    28
 1993 │    39
 1994 │    31
 1995 │    28
 1996 │    25
 1997 │    38
 1998 │    24
 1999 │    41
 2000 │    35
 2001 │    24
 2002 │    34
 2003 │    35
 2004 │    31
 2005 │    26
 2006 │    33
 2007 │    42
 2008 │    42
 2009 │    38
 2010 │    27
 2011 │    42
 2012 │    49
 2013 │    29
 2015 │     5
If you are not paranoid you just do not have enough information yet.

plg

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1197 on: April 25, 2015, 10:01:35 AM »
I should add that before July 1987 the NSIDC data is only recorded every two days making day by day comparison impossible, so the statistics in my post only covers from 1987 to present.
If you are not paranoid you just do not have enough information yet.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1198 on: April 25, 2015, 10:31:52 AM »
IJIS:

13,110,194 km2(April 24, 2015)down 102,206 km2 from previous, first real Century of the season.
Have a ice day!

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1199 on: April 25, 2015, 01:46:09 PM »
Today is a slightly interesting anniversary of sorts: yesterday's reading of 13,110,194 km2 marks the 100th consecutive day that JAXA extent has started with the number 13. That is, since the number climbed out of the 12s on January 15, it has stayed between 13,000,000 and 13,999,999 (with an average of 13,599,071, a median of 13,659,812, and a standard deviation of 228,485).

How's that for a plateau?

I haven't looked back to see how unusual it is for any of the ice metrics to stay in such a relatively narrow range for such an extended period, though I suspect such a thing probably falls into the "unusual but not rare" category.