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Buddy

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1200 on: April 25, 2015, 02:14:24 PM »
Jim:  Nice post.  Yes....this has been a very nice plateau indeed.

In financial markets...plateau's are "resting periods"....and then they break (either up or down).  In financial markets....just as in nature....it is the underlying FUNDAMENTALS that cause the subsequent "break".

The underlying fundamentals of the Arctic ice sheet....are poor indeed.  And the coming break over the coming months...is likely to be significant.  NOT, because the technicals say so....but because of the deteriorating fundamentals:

1)  Thinner ice
2)  Crappier ice
3)  Darker ice
4)  Warming waters all around the Arctic
5)  etc...etc...etc..

Warm anomaly's have been present in the Arctic....and of note is a "three fingered prong" that has been jutting out from the northern shore of Russia into the central Arctic.  With warming waters now "attacking" the ice from three sides (Bering Strait, Svalbard, and Russian coast)....it should prove to be an interesting ice melt season.


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pikaia

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1201 on: April 25, 2015, 03:31:57 PM »
3 triple century breaks (2007-07-01, 2009-07-01, 2013-07-01) and one quadruple (400.48 on 2005-07-21).
I think those three triple century breaks, all on July 1, are an artefact. I seem to remember something about a change to the method of dealing with melt ponds that is applied on that date. Dunno about the quadruple century though.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1202 on: April 26, 2015, 06:21:55 AM »
IJIS:

12,998,194 km2(April 25, 2015)down 112,000 km2 from previous and 3rd lowest.
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DavidR

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1203 on: April 26, 2015, 07:41:25 AM »
Today is a slightly interesting anniversary of sorts: yesterday's reading of 13,110,194 km2 marks the 100th consecutive day that JAXA extent has started with the number 13. That is, since the number climbed out of the 12s on January 15, it has stayed between 13,000,000 and 13,999,999 (with an average of 13,599,071, a median of 13,659,812, and a standard deviation of 228,485).

How's that for a plateau?

I haven't looked back to see how unusual it is for any of the ice metrics to stay in such a relatively narrow range for such an extended period, though I suspect such a thing probably falls into the "unusual but not rare" category.
100 and OUT!! Sounds like a score worthy of a cricketer.
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plg

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1204 on: April 26, 2015, 08:18:28 AM »
3 triple century breaks (2007-07-01, 2009-07-01, 2013-07-01) and one quadruple (400.48 on 2005-07-21).
I think those three triple century breaks, all on July 1, are an artifact. I seem to remember something about a change to the method of dealing with melt ponds that is applied on that date. Dunno about the quadruple century though.

Yes, it is quite possibly and artifact. Although it is fun to follow the day to day changes and get excited by "century breaks" (in itself an artifact of using the SI system and the fact that we have ten fingers...), it is really only meaningful to look at least at 3 or 5 day averages.

But still, the daily excitement is enjoyable.
If you are not paranoid you just do not have enough information yet.

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1205 on: April 26, 2015, 09:46:42 AM »
Some things of interest:

1) how many double century breaks have there been in a row in April by history?

2) The streak of 100 days of a plateau is no longer due to the double century break :)

3) The sea ice in Beaufort Sea is very fragile an if current weather conditions continue there there is a possibility of another century break...

4) The lowest SIE per April 30 (IJIS-number) is: 12,66 Million km2. By April 25 we are at 12,998 Million km2

//LMV

Neven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1206 on: April 26, 2015, 10:22:27 AM »
100 and OUT!! Sounds like a score worthy of a cricketer.

A large-scale century break.  ;D
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1207 on: April 26, 2015, 12:03:14 PM »
IJIS April 25 2015:
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plg

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1208 on: April 26, 2015, 03:30:39 PM »
Some things of interest:

1) how many double century breaks have there been in a row in April by history?

...

//LMV

I checked the NSIDC data (the IJIS only goes back to 2002 from what I can see). Interestingly, there are 709 instances where the two day drop has been > 200k (but both days are not necessarily > 100k).

For April there are 48 instances, with consecutive dates in red:


    date    │  extent  │ extent-2 │  drop   
────────────┼──────────┼──────────┼─────────
 1981-04-03 │ 15.18818 │ 15.40125 │ 0.21307
 1982-04-08 │ 15.55487 │ 15.80664 │ 0.25177
 1983-04-13 │ 15.26057 │ 15.51001 │ 0.24944
 1983-04-19 │ 14.82370 │ 15.04285 │ 0.21915
 1984-04-29 │ 14.33897 │ 14.56120 │ 0.22223
 1985-04-02 │ 15.52746 │ 15.73408 │ 0.20662
 1988-04-24 │ 14.59335 │ 14.87773 │ 0.28438
 1988-04-25 │ 14.58083 │ 14.78621 │ 0.20538
 1989-04-02 │ 14.96302 │ 15.21003 │ 0.24701
 1989-04-14 │ 14.29771 │ 14.55815 │ 0.26044
 1989-04-19 │ 13.96938 │ 14.19021 │ 0.22083
 1990-04-09 │ 14.99265 │ 15.34256 │ 0.34991
 1990-04-10 │ 14.85093 │ 15.21384 │ 0.36291
 1990-04-17 │ 14.35502 │ 14.57726 │ 0.22224
 1990-04-18 │ 14.26717 │ 14.51632 │ 0.24915
 1990-04-28 │ 13.80480 │ 14.00734 │ 0.20254
 1991-04-11 │ 14.95285 │ 15.15567 │ 0.20282
 1992-04-25 │ 14.28646 │ 14.49561 │ 0.20915
 1993-04-23 │ 14.75003 │ 14.97856 │ 0.22853
 1993-04-27 │ 14.45348 │ 14.69815 │ 0.24467
 1993-04-28 │ 14.35153 │ 14.66419 │ 0.31266
 1994-04-30 │ 14.24272 │ 14.46199 │ 0.21927
 1995-04-02 │ 15.07057 │ 15.32148 │ 0.25091
 1995-04-05 │ 14.86086 │ 15.06438 │ 0.20352
 1996-04-02 │ 14.66615 │ 14.94301 │ 0.27686
 1996-04-03 │ 14.58657 │ 14.78949 │ 0.20292
 1996-04-30 │ 13.58667 │ 13.83761 │ 0.25094
 1997-04-09 │ 14.87216 │ 15.11729 │ 0.24513
 1997-04-10 │ 14.74525 │ 15.03213 │ 0.28688
 1998-04-11 │ 14.97054 │ 15.22575 │ 0.25521
 1999-04-20 │ 14.72174 │ 15.02483 │ 0.30309
 1999-04-21 │ 14.67977 │ 14.89755 │ 0.21778
 2000-04-08 │ 14.74762 │ 14.96203 │ 0.21441
 2000-04-12 │ 14.50846 │ 14.80252 │ 0.29406
 2000-04-17 │ 14.24058 │ 14.44884 │ 0.20826
 2003-04-02 │ 15.03588 │ 15.32751 │ 0.29163
 2003-04-03 │ 14.97488 │ 15.19574 │ 0.22086
 2003-04-18 │ 14.28842 │ 14.51150 │ 0.22308
 2004-04-11 │ 14.08183 │ 14.36928 │ 0.28745
 2004-04-12 │ 13.93136 │ 14.29346 │ 0.36210
 2004-04-13 │ 13.85714 │ 14.08183 │ 0.22469
 2006-04-28 │ 13.34867 │ 13.58795 │ 0.23928
 2008-04-16 │ 14.23034 │ 14.43917 │ 0.20883
 2011-04-04 │ 14.30802 │ 14.51392 │ 0.20590
 2012-04-27 │ 14.12592 │ 14.32657 │ 0.20065
 2012-04-29 │ 13.89670 │ 14.12592 │ 0.22922
 2012-04-30 │ 13.76016 │ 14.04714 │ 0.28698
 2015-04-24 │ 13.73900 │ 14.00300 │ 0.26400


So, for April there has been six 2-day sequences, and 1 3-day sequence.
If you are not paranoid you just do not have enough information yet.

plg

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1209 on: April 26, 2015, 03:43:53 PM »
I checked the IJIS data as well, which goes back to mid 2002, and there are far lesser 2 day drops over 200k, possibly because there are holes in the data:

    date    │  extent  │ extent-2 │  drop 
────────────┼──────────┼──────────┼────────
 2004-04-10 │ 13689205 │ 13900370 │ 211165
 2004-04-11 │ 13559823 │ 13843717 │ 283894
 2004-04-12 │ 13432157 │ 13689205 │ 257048
 2008-04-17 │ 13631785 │ 13838156 │ 206371
 2012-04-26 │ 13436906 │ 13666921 │ 230015
 2012-04-27 │ 13336421 │ 13560700 │ 224279
 2013-04-15 │ 13644681 │ 13850285 │ 205604
 2013-04-25 │ 13122691 │ 13355209 │ 232518
 2013-04-26 │ 13041164 │ 13255463 │ 214299
 2015-04-25 │ 12998194 │ 13212400 │ 214206



While preparing this I realized I made a blunder with the coloring: all lines in this an the previous post are two day drops > 200k, the colored lines represent consecutive 2-day drops.
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crandles

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1210 on: April 26, 2015, 05:07:50 PM »
468k in 4 days in 2004 makes 304k in last 3 days look paltry  :P

Phil.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1211 on: April 26, 2015, 06:20:32 PM »
But this year's event started about 700,000 lower.

solartim27

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1212 on: April 26, 2015, 10:10:56 PM »
468k in 4 days in 2004 makes 304k in last 3 days look paltry  :P

Average them for the number of days and it really doesn't.
FNORD

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1213 on: April 27, 2015, 05:24:35 AM »
IJIS:

12,911,507 km2(April 26, 2015 down 86,687 km2 from previous. 2nd lowest for the date 2007 was lower.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1214 on: April 28, 2015, 05:24:21 AM »
IJIS:

12,861,198 km2(April 27, 2015)down 50,309 km2 from previous. 2nd lowest for the date 2007 was lower at 12,854,447 km2 (-6,751 km2)
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1215 on: April 29, 2015, 05:39:10 AM »
IJIS:

12,815,770 km2(April 28, 2015)down 45,428 km2 from previous. 2nd lowest for the date 2006 was lower at 12,782,805 km2 (-32,965 km2)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1216 on: April 29, 2015, 01:49:27 PM »
Still in 2nd place, but a different 'horse' pulled ahead.

It's funny to consider ice melting (compacting, etc.) like a race, cause we know how all the 'runners' did except for one.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Buddy

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1217 on: April 29, 2015, 02:26:47 PM »
.....and that fact that we are betting on which "horse" does the worst.

My money is on the 2015 horse.  Warm anomaly's are appearing in several places in and around the Arctic for sea surface temperature.  Even the southern Canadian Archipelago is showing the beginnings of a warm SST anomaly.

This is NOT setting up to be a good year for the 2015 horse.  He will likely only have 1 leg to stand on by September of 2016 (MYI along the northern Canadian Archipelago).....and may be dead by 2020.

 
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #1218 on: April 30, 2015, 05:50:34 AM »
IJIS;

12,730,329 km2(April 29, 2015)down 85,441 km2 from previous and lowest measured for this date 2006 2nd at 12,730,348 km2 (+19 km2)
« Last Edit: April 30, 2015, 06:29:04 PM by Espen »
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1219 on: May 01, 2015, 06:07:53 AM »
IJIS:

12,707,016 km2(April 30, 2015)down 23,313 km2 from previous 2nd lowest measured for this date 2006 lowest at 12,661,451 km2 (-45,565 km2)
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1220 on: May 02, 2015, 10:13:31 AM »
IJIS:

12,664,582 km2(May 1, 2015 down 42,434 km2 from previous 2nd lowest measured for this date 2006 lowest at 12,558,242 km2 (-106,340 km2)
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1221 on: May 03, 2015, 05:43:27 AM »
IJIS:

12,634,896 km2(May 2, 2015)down 29,686 km2 from previous. 2nd lowest for the date behind 2006 at 12,444,466 km2.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1222 on: May 04, 2015, 05:24:24 AM »
IJIS:

12,629,396 km2(May 3, 2015)down 5,500 km2 from previous. 3rd lowest for date 2004 and 2006 was lower.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1223 on: May 05, 2015, 05:41:10 AM »
IJIS:

12,588,998 km2(May 4, 2015)down 40,398 km2 from previous. 3rd lowest for the date 2004 and 2006 lower.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1224 on: May 06, 2015, 06:00:38 AM »
IJIS:

12,523,337 km2(May 5, 2015) down 65,661 km2  from previous. 3rd lowest for the date 2004 and 2006 lower.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1225 on: May 07, 2015, 06:08:15 AM »
IJIS:

12,425,110 km2(May 6, 2015)down 98,227 km2 from previous. 3rd lowest for the date 2004 and 2006 lower.
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plg

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1226 on: May 07, 2015, 06:32:48 AM »
A pointless milestone: we are now under the 1/1 value, i.e. now the lowest value for this year.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1227 on: May 08, 2015, 05:59:40 AM »
IJIS:

12,390,148 km2(May 7, 2015) down 34,962 km2 from previous. 3rd lowest for the date 2004 and 2006 lower.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1228 on: May 09, 2015, 08:16:00 AM »
IJIS:

12,288,569 km2(May 8, 2015)down 101,579 km2 from previous. 3rd lowest for the date 2004 and 2006 lower.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1229 on: May 09, 2015, 12:55:47 PM »
IJIS:
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1230 on: May 10, 2015, 05:26:40 AM »
IJIS:

12,206,146 km2(May 9, 2015)down 82,423 km2 from previous. 2nd lowest for the date 2006 was lower at 12,119,386 km2 (-86,760 km2).
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1231 on: May 10, 2015, 05:31:03 AM »
Interesting move the next few days will tell more about this season:
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1232 on: May 10, 2015, 05:50:02 AM »
Yes.
Sorry for this, but after a comment I had yesterday only a 2M km² drop within a few days would be interesting to some...

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1233 on: May 10, 2015, 07:43:19 AM »
Yes.
Sorry for this, but after a comment I had yesterday only a 2M km² drop within a few days would be interesting to some...

Hmmm, yes. I think that could be potentially interesting, Sleepy. Yawn...  ;) ;D
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Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1234 on: May 10, 2015, 07:54:06 AM »
The comment I referred to wasn't from here, but from a denier. That does make me yawn...

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1235 on: May 10, 2015, 08:12:06 AM »
The comment I referred to wasn't from here, but from a denier. That does make me yawn...

Believe me, a denier wouldn't even be interested in a 2 million m2 drop within a few days. His lawn still looks the same. Slightly less green perhaps, but it's still grass.

But the great majority will be interested in Arctic sea ice loss, as soon as they understand that it could influence their daily lives.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1236 on: May 10, 2015, 08:21:37 AM »
Agreed.
But maybe 2M km²? ;)

I'm still trying to figure out how to make them understand. We have had a few cooler days here in Scandinavia (cooler=normal for the season) and that's "proof" for global cooling.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1237 on: May 11, 2015, 05:25:23 AM »
IJIS:

12,112,816 km2(May 10, 2015) down 93,330 km2 from previous. 2nd lowest 2006 was lower at 12,084,869 km2 (-27,947 km2)
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1238 on: May 11, 2015, 05:28:13 AM »
IJIS:

Seems 2015 is goíng her own way?
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Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1239 on: May 11, 2015, 06:10:05 AM »
That actually follows my highly professional graph above. Hmm...  8) ;D

Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1240 on: May 11, 2015, 02:28:52 PM »
You must be prophetic, Sleepy! 
Do you have a lottery number we should play? ;D
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1241 on: May 11, 2015, 08:11:38 PM »
Sorry Tor, I don't. I was just so tired and weary that I couldn't draw anything else than that drop.  ;)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1242 on: May 12, 2015, 02:44:03 AM »
Sleepy is either humble or keeping those lottery numbers to himself.  ;)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1243 on: May 12, 2015, 04:50:54 AM »
Hmm, I'm not humble, because I'm not egoistic. Neither is Disneys character. http://disney.wikia.com/wiki/Sleepy  :)

Espen and ADS are still asleep. Let's see what that red line does today.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1244 on: May 12, 2015, 05:25:25 AM »
IJIS:

12,056,719 km2(May 11, 2015)down 56,097 km2 from previous lowest measured for the date
2006 2nd at 12,059,347 km2 (+ 2,628 km2).
« Last Edit: May 12, 2015, 05:32:15 AM by Espen »
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1245 on: May 12, 2015, 05:28:31 AM »
IJIS:

Thís position could be short lived or long standing depending on what happens the next few days:
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plg

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1246 on: May 12, 2015, 06:47:19 AM »
Agreed.
But maybe 2M km²? ;)

I'm still trying to figure out how to make them understand. We have had a few cooler days here in Scandinavia (cooler=normal for the season) and that's "proof" for global cooling.
That is funny, considering the trend the last 10 years: http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/kartor/monYrTable.php?par=tmpYrAvv&month=13

Monthly and daily data is at http://www.smhi.se/klimatdata/meteorologi/temperatur

The site is in Swedish, but Google translate is your friend...
If you are not paranoid you just do not have enough information yet.

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1247 on: May 12, 2015, 06:54:46 AM »

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1248 on: May 13, 2015, 05:24:02 AM »
IJIS:

11,983,392 km2(May 12, 2015)down 73,327 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1249 on: May 13, 2015, 05:27:22 AM »
IJIS:

We will probably see 2015 being lowest measured for the date for some time now:

Have a ice day!