So if we keep trundling along as we are it will be around June 20th before the other years catch up?
Somehow I think we will be seeing larger losses than current by then?
All else being equal, it seems probable we will remain at about the same separation below previous years. Day over day 2015 appears to be melting at the same rate or slightly higher than previous years.
Conditions may change of course, but I'm not seeing anything
Yet to suggest a break in slope in 2015's progress.
Continued massive inputs of heat and moisture from lower latitudes could prompt a June/July "swan dive" to greater rate of decline. However, if restraining feedbacks kick in (like 2013/14 evaporation from open water in the pack, forming fog and low clouds), the gap could close, as the increased thicker ice (as compared to other post 2012 years) exerts its influence over the numbers.
Either way, similar to both 2013 and 2014, I think we will see massive fragmentation of the pack into millions of larger and smaller separate floes, rather than contiguous extents of ice. It will be much more vulnerable than pre-2012 or pre-2007, and its survival will depend greatly on favorable weather.