It looks like your space is for rent.
I guess I'm not understanding your point, ASLR.
My scientific point is that the IPCC AR5/CMIP5 model projections of sea ice loss from the Arctic assume gradual change, but in reality it does not occur gradually but rather in a ratcheting fashion from one quasi-static/critical point to another as indicated by the attached image (using chaos theory concepts, in this case with our recent Super El Nino acting as the strange attractor).
This is verified by the information in the linked open access reference that indicates that: "… Arctic sea ice may have critical points beyond which a return to the previous state is less likely." Current AR5/CMIP5 models do not adequately exhibit this behavior:
Goldstein, M. A., Lynch, A. H., Arbetter, T. E., and Fetterer, F.: Abrupt transitions in Arctic open water area, The Cryosphere Discuss., doi:10.5194/tc-2016-108, in review, 2016.
http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2016-108/Abstract. September open water fraction in the Arctic is analyzed using the satellite era record of ice concentration (1979–2014). This analysis suggests that there is a statistically significant breakpoint (shift in the mean) and increase in the variance around 1988 and another breakpoint around 2007 in the Pacific sector. These structural breaks are robust to the choice of algorithm used for deriving sea ice concentration from satellite data, and are also apparent in other measures of open water, such as operational ice charts and the record of navigable days from Barrow to Prudhoe Bay. Breakpoints in the Atlantic sector record of open water are evident in 1988 and 2007 but more weakly significant. The breakpoints appear to be associated with concomitant shifts in average ice age, and tend to lead change in Arctic circulation regimes. These results support the thesis that Arctic sea ice may have critical points beyond which a return to the previous state is less likely.
Regarding my point about the 37% rule see:
Optimal stopping:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimal_stoppingThe Secretary Problem:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_problemAnd as oren points out, see your signature for my comment about your space being for rent.