IJIS

[Sleepy]

20160716 -19128

[Tigertown]

At least we knew ahead of time that the cliff was coming. It really helped that way, so as to absorb some of the shock.

[Sleepy]

My eyes have gone really bad in latter years and I'm obviously not developing a new one, so I'm still here:

Also today attached.

[Espen]

IJIS:

7,495,089 km²（July 16, 2016）

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS:

7,495,089 km²（July 16, 2016）

That very small IJIS extent decrease of 19k is only the third sub-20k day recorded in July since at least 2003 (2003 saw one, as did 2014). Average drop for this day over the previous five seasons: 120k.

IJIS has fallen back to third place behind 2011 and 2012.

[jplotinus]

The 16 July drop of only -19k is extraordinary and could end up being the turning point away from a possible record low September minimum. Then again, maybe not. That result might be attributable to the cyclone in the Beafort area and may be offset by huge losses in coming days. It has been elsewhere posted that Nares transport appears to have started. It is also noted that at Alert, north and west of Nares, the coastal temperature is currently 16°, sunny and high temps are forecast to remain above 10° For the next several days. That is a lot of heat in an area having old ice.

My guess is that the -19k shocker may be followed by century declines. It is, after all, mid-July in the peak of the melt season.

[Tensor]

But I see from comments that your vote has increased every month after starting at 2.75-3 in May.

Probably outside that 20 post limit....

[Sleepy]

20160717 -40133

[Michael Hauber]

Someone was saying something about some cliff?

[Espen]

IJIS:

7,454,956 km²（July 17, 2016）

[Neven]

Someone was saying something about some cliff?

Well, cliffs are things you can fall off, but you can also bump into them if you're not watching. 

[magnamentis]

Someone was saying something about some cliff?

yes that was me and hight of a cliff can differ, some are 1km high, others just 50 meters and it happened now twice, just did not last, mostly because of the storms this time which in the long run will have their negative impact on the ice and then i say it again. this so called extent (>15% ice cover) is by no means close to 100% ice cover but closer to 30-40% which might boost the extent number for those who like to deny the current state but does neither change the low overall amount of ice as well as the heat in the system and the sudden drops that will happen again during the coming 2-3 weeks once the cover will fall below the 15% mark in huge areas (as it happened recently.

so in short, the cliffs were not very high but there were quite a few and if too many guys have a problem with how i use the word "cliff" i'm ready to learn, provide my with the word you think or know that it suits better and i will gladly use that other term from now on. i'm not stuck with that word, did not invent it and just adopted it from other people using the term.

so let's agree on a term but stick to the fact that we are still intermittently moving around the lowest values for the date, once 1st, then 2nd, then 3rd, back to first and back to 2nd. this is definitely not what those who
lost the feel for this melting season predicted when they announced 4th place or "better" after each little stall, mostly due to the fact that the remaining ice is millions of units while in earlier years it was in solid state.

[magnamentis]

here i gonna illustrate how the same time period looks like, depending on the graph parameters, once it IS a cliff and once it does not look like one, just because one is taken in all year view and the other is narrowed down to a very short time frame of a few weeks which of course looks very flat then. i recommend to visit the page where those graphs were taken from from time to time to get a better overview.

[dnem]

C'mon people!  There data are freely available on the JAXA site.  Download 'em.  Put 'em in Excel.  Play around with 'em.  It's not that hard.  We don't need to be eyeballing graphs at this stage of the game.  I was amazed at the "wow's" offered over a 450k drop over three days in July.  That's a totally run of the mill occurrence in the record over the past 10 years.

[Archimid]

" That's a totally run of the mill occurrence in the record over the past 10 year"

That may be, but considering there is near record low ice to loose, then it becomes significant.

[dnem]

It was definitely a bit three day drop on an already low value, yes.  But almost all the years since 2002 managed a string of century drops, most have longer runs than 2016.  And as we now know, the 2016 three day run was followed by a run of anomalously small extent losses.  This is a highly variable system and likely getting more variable (that would take some actual stats to determine).  I just don't think these little runs are very predictive of where this season will end up.

[Buddy]

The "short run stuff" is pretty meaningless IMHO.  Short run stuff in ANY "chart" is meaningless.

Although I LOVE to watch the day-to-day stuff......it is the LONG TERM STUFF that is more important.

I still think that.....unlike 90% of you folks.....that 2016 will set a new all time low THIS SEPTEMBER.

But 99% of the people on this site are ALL on the same side of the boat relative to LONG TERM DIRECTION.

So while I will continue to watch the IJIS HERE....day-to-day (like waiting for the crack up in the Daytona 500 you KNOW is going to happen).....I also like to watch the long term stuff.....AND....other people hedging their bets and finding other "excuses" for the rising temperatures and melting ice (like Joe Bastardi this week saying how warming temperatures will be GOOD for reduced insurance claims as a % of GDP (I know....Joe is PAID to twist things in a direction that is good for the people PAYING HIM).

[Sleepy]

20160718 -51244

Edit; still marking 2011.

[Espen]

IJIS:

7,403,712 km²（July 18, 2016）

[Sleepy]

20160719 -63852

[Espen]

IJIS:

7,339,860 km²（July 19, 2016）

[Sleepy]

20160720 -111030

[Espen]

IJIS:

 7,228,830 km²（July 20, 2016）

[dmarcus]

The July 20th extent is lower than the average annual minimum in the 1980s (which occurred on September 11 during that decade).

[gregcharles]

That's an interesting point. 2016 is also lower than the minimum for the majority of individual years of the 1980s (i.e., 1980 - 1983, 1986, and 1988, with 1987 about to fall). I'll mention that the next time someone says arctic ice is "back to normal".

[Sleepy]

20160721 -55089

Edit; just behind 2007 now, 925mb temps lower than then, and dropping.

[Espen]

IJIS:

7,173,741 km²（July 21, 2016）

[Jim Pettit]

After what's been a pretty slow week, IJIS slips to 4th, and sees only it's second day out of the top three since mid-March. Over the past week, IJIS extent has fallen by 438k. By way of comparison, the same 7-day period last year saw a decrease of 840k.

As the following image shows, 2016 has squandered--and then some--the huge lead it enjoyed most of the year. Only one year since the early 2000s has seen less extent decrease over the summer:

[AbruptSLR]

As the following image shows, 2016 has squandered--and then some--the huge lead it enjoyed most of the year.

Such anthropomorphic language illustrates how we got into the Anthropocene.  Nature did not squander anything; it is only that humans project our value systems on to Earth Systems that do not care (let alone enjoy any lead) what we are, or are not, hoping for.

[Jim Pettit]

Such anthropogenic language illustrates how we got into the Anthropocene.  Nature did not squander anything; it is only that humans project our value systems on to Earth Systems that do not care (let alone enjoy any lead) what we are, or are not, hoping for.

I dunno. I very seriously doubt my metaphorical use of the term "squandered" to refer to this summer's slowdown in extent loss helped bring about climate change. That is, the four million tonnes of excess CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere every hour of every day is most likely from another source. 

[AbruptSLR]

Such anthropogenic language illustrates how we got into the Anthropocene.  Nature did not squander anything; it is only that humans project our value systems on to Earth Systems that do not care (let alone enjoy any lead) what we are, or are not, hoping for.

I dunno. I very seriously doubt my metaphorical use of the term "squandered" to refer to this summer's slowdown in extent loss helped bring about climate change. That is, the four million tonnes of excess CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere every hour of every day is most likely from another source. 

I corrected anthropogenic to anthropomorphic (I hadn't had my coffee yet).

[Nick_Naylor]

Without "anthropogenic language", we would almost certainly not have industrialized, and thus temperatures would still be pre-industrial. Yes, I think you have something

[AbruptSLR]

Without "anthropogenic language", we would almost certainly not have industrialized, and thus temperatures would still be pre-industrial. Yes, I think you have something

Use of anthropomorphic language assumes that we can negotiate with Earth Systems like they were a human that we can influence using political power (or peer pressure in the case of a blog); but this is not the case; as current youths will find-out as they grow up.

Edit: See the attached cartoon, illustrating this type of thinking.

[Nick_Naylor]

You make a good point. I was just having fun with your original verbiage. Great cartoon, by the way:)

[gregcharles]

After what's been a pretty slow week, IJIS slips to 4th, and sees only it's second day out of the top three since mid-March.

A large, but not implausibly large, drop today would bring 2016 back into second place. Otherwise, it will be one of few times this year it's been out of the top 3 on consecutive days ... a week in March, a few days in February, five in January. On the other hand, 1992 and 1996 now join the list of years already beaten by 2016.


tl;dr I've added some formulas to the IJIS spreadsheet, and I'm inordinately pleased with myself.

[Sleepy]

20160722 -46065

Edit; almost tied with 2013 (7130831) now (7127676).

[Jim Pettit]

Yes, still in 4th place, and needing to drop 69k today to avoid slipping back to 5th, where 2016 hasn't been since before the annual max. (Average daily decrease over the past week: 55k).

NOTE: I hope and trust my use of the term "slipping back" won't exacerbate climate change... 

[seaicesailor]

20160722 -46065

Edit; almost tied with 2013 (7130831) now (7127676).

I guess this is the moment that the heat excess in and around the Arctic (open ocean extent and temperature, extent of melt ponds, continental warmth, ocean currents) or lack thereof will determine how August and September go.
I'd say it is going to be a long two months for the ice, but the Arctic indeed is surprising.

[Espen]

IJIS:

7,127,676 km²（July 22, 2016）

[seaicesailor]

Now that 2013 and 2016 are almost tied, it is a good moment to compare the ADS-NIPR AMSR2 ice concentration maps for the same date of the day (upper image corresponds to 2016, lower to 2013).

While the difference in extent is minimal, note the big difference in concentration for CAA, Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS and Pacific side of CAB. As I speculated above, if there is more heat excess for melting this year in and around the Arctic, and the weather lets this potential melting happen, it is obvious the difference that the minimum September extent will get. I personally very much doubt this will not happen.
Edit: note the difference in SST in Chukchi as well, and in North West Alaskan coast (South of Bering too). Bering inflow has something to do with it? (however the SSTs are not shown in some places and may look as at freezing temperature)
While Laptev was open in 2013 and warmed.
Added legend at the bottom

[Iceismylife]

Use of anthropomorphic language assumes that we can negotiate with Earth Systems like they were a human that we can influence...

Our world view is tainted by the tossing of alchemy in lieu of chemistry.  In some respects we tossed the baby out with the bath water.  Eastern medicine works better than western medicine for some things.   

[Espen]

IJIS:

7,067,973 km²（July 23, 2016）

[Sleepy]

20160723 -59703

[BornFromTheVoid]

ADS extent now 5th lowsest on record. The last time it was 5th was March 23rd.

[echoughton]

ADS extent now 5th lowsest on record. The last time it was 5th was March 23rd.

This is quite extraordinary. For the ice to begin a season as anemic as it was and then to rally and hold in such a way in the face of what we hear is "roasting Arctic temperatures"....well it says something about the resillience of the climate up there.

[Gray-Wolf]

ADS extent now 5th lowsest on record. The last time it was 5th was March 23rd.

This is quite extraordinary. For the ice to begin a season as anemic as it was and then to rally and hold in such a way in the face of what we hear is "roasting Arctic temperatures"....well it says something about the resillience of the climate up there.

Just remember 10cm thick ice covering 200km2 measures the same as 2m ice covering 200km2 for extent/area purposes?

[Jim Hunt]

ADS extent now 5th lowsest on record. The last time it was 5th was March 23rd.

This is quite extraordinary.

For a slightly different perspective see also UH high-res AMSR2 area:

[Neven]

Or MASIE, another high-resolution SIE data set:

[Neven]

But that perspective changed after the addition of today's data:

[Quantum]

But that perspective changed after the addition of today's data:

Real or one of those random upticks you get from time to time?