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abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3100 on: September 09, 2016, 04:14:38 AM »
Were cumulative IJIS extent losses to duplicate any of the years from 2003 through 2015, we'd see a sub 4M km2 minimum (average: 3.88M), and that minimum would occur no fewer than three days (2008), and no more than 15 days (2005), from now, with an average of eight days, or September 14.

I think it is possible to analyse things too much sometimes.
Of course, but there is ALSO something called method that separates us from those that still walk on all fours!

Jim has brought calculative rationale to the conversation and I concur,........ for one.... ;D
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3101 on: September 09, 2016, 05:31:10 AM »
IJIS:

4,024,575 km2(September 8, 2016)up 7,311 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3102 on: September 09, 2016, 06:22:44 AM »
I think we should start to prepare ourselves for the distinct possibility that IJIS won't dip below 4 Mn km2 as the minimum should come at any day now. Very annoying though!

mmghosh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3103 on: September 09, 2016, 06:45:16 AM »
In a few short years 4m will be touted as a "recovery",  no doubt,  LMV.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3104 on: September 09, 2016, 07:03:52 AM »
That 4M line is not important. There are no winners here, only losers. We have failed, all of us.

This annoys me; Kevin Anderson was recently appointed as the Uppsala University's new Zennström visiting Professor of Climate Change Leadership, but there are very few who cares about that here in Sweden. Here's a post with links to his lecture in Uppsala:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1021.msg89180.html#msg89180

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3105 on: September 09, 2016, 08:57:18 AM »
The pole hole shown in ADS maps has grown a lot. Does this affect IJIS extent or is just visualization issue? This year it would make a (small) difference.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3106 on: September 10, 2016, 12:42:21 PM »
IJIS:

4,031,479 km2(September 9, 2016)up 6,904 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3107 on: September 10, 2016, 01:52:39 PM »
Seems like we can dismiss the idea to go below 4 Mn km2.... I don't expect any further losses due to the unfavorable weather conditions that prevails over the Arctic basin now. In addition, refreezing have started in the Pacific side of the CAB.

After all, the numbers are also lying about the state of the Arctic sea ice. It's in a worse shape compared to 2012.

JUST NEW: NSIDC 5 day average is now below 2007!! Todays value at 4,137 Mn km2 means that the 5 day average is down to 4,1456 Mn km2 which superseeds 2007 minimum at 4,154 Mn km2!!!

crandles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3108 on: September 10, 2016, 03:49:55 PM »
Seems like we can dismiss the idea to go below 4 Mn km2.... I don't expect any further losses due to the unfavorable weather conditions that prevails over the Arctic basin now. In addition, refreezing have started in the Pacific side of the CAB.

After all, the numbers are also lying about the state of the Arctic sea ice. It's in a worse shape compared to 2012.

JUST NEW: NSIDC 5 day average is now below 2007!!

Next question: have we enough of a lead for September average to be second lowest or might a fast rising extent compared to 2007 slow rising extent keep us above 2007 September average.

Unfavourable weather? Isn't it all about bottom melt now? So high pressure causing clear skies would allow more heat loss from ocean and more ice formation? Or is it lack of winds bringing heat from lower latitudes that is most important?

mmghosh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3109 on: September 10, 2016, 06:50:26 PM »
The general picture seems to support a close second place/statistical tie with 2007 on most of the usual metrics, IJIS, NSIDC, etc. 

I'm interested in the validation of the 5 year cycle, post 2007, as seen on IJIS, and its relation to Nino events - as was pointed out upthread.  Of course, the timescales are really short, but it seems amazing that it should even be detectable at all.

Jim Hunt

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3110 on: September 10, 2016, 08:08:18 PM »
However the gap to 2012 is much smaller if you look at area instead of extent:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/the-2016-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/
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Iceismylife

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3111 on: September 10, 2016, 09:10:07 PM »
However the gap to 2012 is much smaller if you look at area instead of extent:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/the-2016-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/
As far as the postulated 5 year cycle...


 We are smack on 2011.

Pmt111500

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3112 on: September 10, 2016, 10:58:25 PM »
The general picture seems to support a close second place/statistical tie with 2007 on most of the usual metrics, IJIS, NSIDC, etc. 

I'm interested in the validation of the 5 year cycle, post 2007, as seen on IJIS, and its relation to Nino events - as was pointed out upthread.  Of course, the timescales are really short, but it seems amazing that it should even be detectable at all.

Correlation to Nino isn't toi high, but only slightly better than random, but still there so I'd advise using some caution in talking of that. Likely not strong enough to be published.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3113 on: September 11, 2016, 12:18:11 AM »
However the gap to 2012 is much smaller if you look at area instead of extent:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/the-2016-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/
As far as the postulated 5 year cycle...


 We are smack on 2011.


If we are, 2017 could be very interesting. 
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seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3114 on: September 11, 2016, 01:17:37 AM »
Seems like we can dismiss the idea to go below 4 Mn km2.... I don't expect any further losses due to the unfavorable weather conditions that prevails over the Arctic basin now. In addition, refreezing have started in the Pacific side of the CAB.

After all, the numbers are also lying about the state of the Arctic sea ice. It's in a worse shape compared to 2012.

JUST NEW: NSIDC 5 day average is now below 2007!!

Next question: have we enough of a lead for September average to be second lowest or might a fast rising extent compared to 2007 slow rising extent keep us above 2007 September average.

Unfavourable weather? Isn't it all about bottom melt now? So high pressure causing clear skies would allow more heat loss from ocean and more ice formation? Or is it lack of winds bringing heat from lower latitudes that is most important?
Winds are going to blow sustained from North and expand the pack. However announced by others and Scribber I think, heat wave also lasting some days from the Atlantic side. If the Wrangel ice doesn't blossom in ice, some balancing with slow tendency to go up? So difficult.
2016 has a substantial lead in average from first of the month (NSIDC) but should keep fairly flat to keep it.
This year I think that, as things stand it is benefiticial that 2016 stays below 2007 to send a stronger call of attention.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 01:23:03 AM by seaicesailor »

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3115 on: September 11, 2016, 06:46:47 AM »
A joyride through the Arctic with 1700 people on board a huge cruiser, accompanied by two helicopters and an ice breaker, is the strongest call I can imagine apart from an ice free Arctic. Does people care? Not around here.

And for the issue of teleconnections, it is known that tropical-extratropical teleconnection is sensitive to changes in flavours of El Nino. If we would have seen a larger drop in SST's in the Nino4 region (or rather the larger region in 145°E–150°W, 16°S–20°N) and a transition into a real La Nina, I believe the numbers would have been much lower by now.
The Nino4 region has dropped to it's lowest anomalies for a long time according to CDAS, but look at the the temperatures in the larger region mentioned above. Attaching SST's for that region and the North Pole, from NCEP.

I believe 2017 is the year that will be calling for attention. If we see a new record, will the people I see around me care? I don't think so.

dmarcus

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3116 on: September 11, 2016, 07:13:31 AM »
4076K km2, up sharply from yesterday. Looks like the JAXA minimum extent for the year has come and gone at 4017K km2.

JMP

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3117 on: September 11, 2016, 07:58:26 AM »
Looks like the JAXA minimum extent for the year has come and gone at 4017K km2.

Quite possibly - but too soon to call with the winds and potential above freezing temps projected. 


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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3118 on: September 11, 2016, 08:52:52 AM »
4076K km2, up sharply from yesterday. Looks like the JAXA minimum extent for the year has come and gone at 4017K km2.
I wouldn't exactly call that *sharply*; more like no loss yesterday.  "Sharply" would take a rise of 50k or more, in my view.

I'd also say we'd need a week of this before I think we could safely call minimum, if then.  In fact, I'd wait until we were at least 250k past this point (higher) before I'd be willing to call it.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3119 on: September 11, 2016, 09:39:16 AM »
IJIS:

4,076,490 km2(September 10, 2016)up 45,011 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3120 on: September 11, 2016, 10:32:25 AM »
Seems highly unlikely that we will see a +76K drop below 4 Mn mark. Melting season is over and now we can only wait for Neven to call the minimum and turn our eyes to refreezing season 2016/2017!

Darvince

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3121 on: September 11, 2016, 12:00:51 PM »
Although 2003 and 2004 both had large increases that lasted two days and then had second minimums, 2004's was slightly higher and 2003's was slightly lower, so we can't quite call it yet.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3122 on: September 11, 2016, 05:26:49 PM »
Although I believe we are now into the freezing season, the sea ice north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island is behaving strange, it could easily be pushed rigth out of the Fram Strait if the right condition is there:
Have a ice day!

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3123 on: September 11, 2016, 05:34:58 PM »
Seems highly unlikely that we will see a +76K drop below 4 Mn mark. Melting season is over and now we can only wait for Neven to call the minimum and turn our eyes to refreezing season 2016/2017!

just for the fun of it, it's possible of course but IMO there is some 30% ice expanded (blown around) into formerly 10% ice regions and into now 20% ice that still fully counts as 100% Extent. one warm day and a bit of wave action will cause this to back-flash while whether this happens in time is totally open.

BTW, the reason why i even reply is genuine having some fun to see what will happen and the absoluteness of some statements. possible, yes of course, certain, by no means, and calling something off denies the possibility of any other outcome.

that said, and again, to make sure, this is not meant to sound like an argument, just throwing in my two cents, hope it's taken that way. very much appreciate your various contributions.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3124 on: September 12, 2016, 05:26:21 AM »
Although I believe we are now into the freezing season, the sea ice north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island is behaving strange, it could easily be pushed rigth out of the Fram Strait if the right condition is there:
Yes. And/but forecasts indicating continuing southerly winds for a few days.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3125 on: September 12, 2016, 05:30:01 AM »
IJIS:

 4,124,526 km2
(September 11, 2016)up 48,036 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3126 on: September 12, 2016, 06:10:29 AM »
Well, bye bye to the 2016 melting season!  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3127 on: September 12, 2016, 06:19:00 AM »
Ditto! It would take something extraordinary to turn this around.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3128 on: September 12, 2016, 07:45:45 AM »
In addition to IJIS, Uni Bremen Extent, ArcticROOS Area and DMI Volume have all turned up.

Bye Bye. Lets see what 2017 has in store.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3129 on: September 13, 2016, 02:24:27 AM »
Whew! I'm very happy the arctic averted catastrophe for one more year. On the other hand, by my calculations, the 2010s average minimum extent (thus far) is 4,290,917 km2. That's nearly 22% less than the 2000s average of 5,479,091, and there are three more years left in the 2010s.

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3130 on: September 13, 2016, 03:47:58 AM »
Whew! I'm very happy the arctic averted catastrophe for one more year. On the other hand, by my calculations, the 2010s average minimum extent (thus far) is 4,290,917 km2. That's nearly 22% less than the 2000s average of 5,479,091, and there are three more years left in the 2010s.
As far as quantified argument goes I think that's quite a telling story.

(It would seem 2012 really messes those numbers up a fair bit, tho..)
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3131 on: September 13, 2016, 05:10:58 AM »
We came that close to our 1st ever less than 2 million square kilometers of sea ice.  8)

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3132 on: September 13, 2016, 05:27:28 AM »
IJIS:

4,203,422 km2(September 12, 2016)up 78,896 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3133 on: September 13, 2016, 07:28:26 AM »
Seems like we are in for a quick refreezing. The September average won't be lower than 2007 even though the minimum was lower....

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3134 on: September 13, 2016, 07:29:48 PM »
Seems like we are in for a quick refreezing. The September average won't be lower than 2007 even though the minimum was lower....

congrats LMV, as it seems ( very most probably ) had the better nose this time, means chance is very very high that you had it spot on with your early judgement. if you were living around the corner ( southern spain ) i'd send you a beer :-)

enjoy furhter
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3135 on: September 14, 2016, 05:23:14 AM »
IJIS:

4,239,854 km2(September 13, 2016)up 36,432 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3136 on: September 14, 2016, 06:47:10 AM »
Instead of second place, on monthly average 2016 can be the fourth or fifth lowest on record, if we continue with this trend!!!  ???
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

epiphyte

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3137 on: September 14, 2016, 07:10:31 AM »
This is measuring the wrong thing and then giving it unwarranted weight. I wish people would please stop going along with < 2D denial-friendly metrics.

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3138 on: September 14, 2016, 07:50:52 AM »
This is measuring the wrong thing and then giving it unwarranted weight. I wish people would please stop going along with < 2D denial-friendly metrics.

Epiphyte: Your comment seems a bit inflammatory. Care to add more substance to your argument?
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3139 on: September 14, 2016, 09:26:33 AM »
This is measuring the wrong thing and then giving it unwarranted weight. I wish people would please stop going along with < 2D denial-friendly metrics.

Epiphyte: Your comment seems a bit inflammatory. Care to add more substance to your argument?

Though perhaps he has a point - it might just belong in a different thread.

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3140 on: September 14, 2016, 09:33:31 AM »
This is measuring the wrong thing and then giving it unwarranted weight. I wish people would please stop going along with < 2D denial-friendly metrics.
These 2D metrics are far from being denier-friendly ;)
About IJIS, note that the daily number may have registered even a negative number (2-day average down from 80k to 30k), lets wait and see...

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3141 on: September 14, 2016, 10:28:45 AM »
The southerly winds north of Greenland seems to be ending today. The expansion seen the last days is also visibly a bit less in the last frame in the attached animation from DMI's model.

pikaia

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3142 on: September 14, 2016, 10:56:37 AM »
While the extent seems to have hit minimum very early this year, the volume has reached minimum unusually late!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3143 on: September 14, 2016, 11:49:09 AM »
Meanwhile, in a place quite literally poles apart from the Arctic, things are moving in the opposite direction - in every sense...

Anyone who has not recently clicked on the "Antarctic" button on the Region Selector part of the  IJIS/ADS page may well be surprised if they have a quick look.

There is a data drop for 2002 between 13th to the 19th Sept (incl), but, that apart, 2016 is now in the basement. Although the extent maximum in the Antarctic is far more variable than that witnessed in the Arctic, the numbers are still pretty astonishing. (The BIST tool provided by the NSIDC is excellent at showing up this behaviour.)

During the period 29th Aug - 13th Sep this year, the Antarctic sea ice extent dropped about 690k sq kms. Over the same period, the average value for the 2000's rose by about 420k. An even more extreme example can be seen by comparing values this year with those record high values set in 2014. The same day value for 13th Sep 2016 is a truly jaw-dropping 2.02 million sq kms below the 2014 equivalent.

What makes that already astonishing delta even more worrying is that the imminent trajectories for the two years in question appear - at least at the moment - to be divergent.

I think it's too early to say if this is purely down to specific weather conditions, or whether the sea ice in the Antarctic is starting to respond to climate change in an analogous fashion to its boreal cousin. However, a watching brief is definitely in order.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3144 on: September 14, 2016, 12:59:35 PM »
Speaking of which, on IJIS, the Antarctic sea ice extent is currently the lowest on record.

I don't really think that this is entirely the beginning of the response to climate change. It's been responding to climate change since we started measuring it, but it responds in a much more complex fashion than the Arctic because of the lack of land for it to anchor itself on that isn't frozen all year. It also responds strongly to the PDO state, with a higher extent during periods of negative PDO and lower extent during periods of positive PDO. In addition to that we have the competing factor of the increasing temperature gradient between the tropics and Antarctica driving an increase in the intensity of Southern Ocean lows pushing ice out from Antarctica. Rising temperatures have far less of an effect on Antarctic sea ice seeing as it is already all first-year ice and the temperatures in the Antarctic are far below 0C all year round.

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3145 on: September 14, 2016, 03:17:01 PM »
This is measuring the wrong thing and then giving it unwarranted weight. I wish people would please stop going along with < 2D denial-friendly metrics.

Epiphyte: Your comment seems a bit inflammatory. Care to add more substance to your argument?

Though perhaps he has a point - it might just belong in a different thread.

Acts: This exchange is in regards to IJIS metrics, therefore it is on topic. I would like to better understand Epiphyte's thinking
« Last Edit: September 14, 2016, 03:23:53 PM by budmantis »
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3146 on: September 14, 2016, 04:04:30 PM »
I think what epiphyte was saying was that using the monthly averages in the stead of using the actual minimum made this season appear on paper to be less bad than it was. I know such things serve a purpose and understand the use of them(averages), but sometimes hate them myself. You know, like  in a baseball game, when the game is on the line and the best hitter is up against the other team's best pitcher, and the announcer just won't shut up about all the stats between them for this situation.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3147 on: September 14, 2016, 04:07:08 PM »
However, a watching brief is definitely in order.


Hopefully not too far off topic in here, here is Wipneus' high res version of AMSR2 Antarctic area:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/antarctic-sea-ice-graphs/
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ghoti

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3148 on: September 14, 2016, 04:18:47 PM »
The past year we had the Arctic have the lowest maximum and the Antarctic progress so for towards maximum appears it might also be the lowest maximum. Not all years are shown on the Wipneus chart - does it also show the current lowest maximum?


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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3149 on: September 14, 2016, 04:50:15 PM »
I'd be surprised if its the lowest - scanning through Charctic shows 10 years with lower maximums - 79, 84, 86, 89. 90, 92, 02, 08, many by quite a margin and several others very close.