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jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3300 on: October 31, 2016, 08:45:49 AM »
Nice work Sleepy.

Gives some insight to a partial reason for the low and slow ice expansion.
Gives some cause to lie in bed awake at night.  That's disturbing.
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Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3301 on: October 31, 2016, 05:54:50 PM »
Gives some cause to lie in bed awake at night.  That's disturbing.

Yeah, it is worrying.  I just can't shake the feeling, with no backing what so ever, that while 2016 didn't crash to a new record, it has set up 2017 for that crash.  Much like 2006 and 2011 seemingly set up 2007 and 2012. 
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plinius

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3302 on: October 31, 2016, 10:57:40 PM »
The winter hasn't started yet, so I would prefer to abstain from doomsday scenarios. So far - yes, Kara is open, Chukchi is open, and there is no telling when either of them or Bering/Barents will start producing sea ice. But this does not mean that this winter will necessarily be worse than others. Given a month with the right weather, sea ice will return to a more "normal" pattern.
Reminds me too much of people embarrassing themselves with boasting of "record large" sea ice extents in April 2012. Extent is anyway a bad measure. And to my knowledge, any volume measure is yet to achieve record-low values, isn't it?

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3303 on: October 31, 2016, 11:29:46 PM »
The winter hasn't started yet, so I would prefer to abstain from doomsday scenarios.
No, not making "doomsday" predictions. 

Don't confuse healthy alarm with a prediction of imminent destruction.  I think I was pretty clear in indicating I thought we needed to see more data.  That said, if the additional data falls in line with what we have been seeing, my and other's concerns will in fact be well founded.
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budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3304 on: November 01, 2016, 03:15:46 AM »
I've read JD Allen's comments and analysis with interest and believe he adds a lot to the Forum. I've never seen him engage in doomsday scenarios.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3305 on: November 01, 2016, 04:26:46 AM »
The winter hasn't started yet, so I would prefer to abstain from doomsday scenarios.

I haven't said anything about Trump presidency, at least in this thread. Oops, off topic.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 04:33:28 AM by Pmt111500 »

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3306 on: November 01, 2016, 04:42:09 AM »
The winter hasn't started yet, so I would prefer to abstain from doomsday scenarios.

I haven't said anything about Trump presidency, at least in this thread. Oops, off topic.

<Guffaws> Thank you for the levity and distraction.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3307 on: November 01, 2016, 05:02:10 AM »
IJIS:

6,966,858 km2(October 31, 2016)up 45,710 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3308 on: November 01, 2016, 05:32:43 AM »
Thanks Tensor, it wasn't much work, it seems to have stirred up more than I put into that crappy animation. :)

I changed to winter tyres this Saturday. Mr T rump is a cuddly, nice guy who is concerned about everyone on this planet and extent is a flawed metrics.

~+45k.

I must have another cup of coffee.

Edit; Had more coffee now, I did change to winter tyres, that part was true.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 05:44:20 AM by Sleepy »

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3309 on: November 01, 2016, 05:46:14 AM »
IJIS:

6,966,858 km2(October 31, 2016)up 45,710 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
I'll be dipped.  Didn't think it would happen, but we aren't going to pass 7 million KM2 until tomorrow.

Perhaps its time to begin drinking heavily.
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Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3310 on: November 01, 2016, 06:04:01 AM »
but we aren't going to pass 7 million KM2 until tomorrow.
Are you sure about that? Zero increase on uni-bremen today.

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3311 on: November 01, 2016, 06:30:06 AM »
NSIDC also stalled this week and even step back a little from the 29th to the 30th.
I think that I might know why. The ice has nowhere to grow, for the warmer waters.

"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3312 on: November 01, 2016, 06:30:37 AM »
but we aren't going to pass 7 million KM2 until tomorrow.
Are you sure about that? Zero increase on uni-bremen today.
I'm sure he meant  before tomorrow.  We are currently 688K below the previous record, the largest difference this year.  Even more remarkable, in the last 34 days we have shifted 2M km^2 in relation to the record, an average of 60K km^2 per day, and 1.7M further below the average, since 2002, thats 50K km^2 per day.
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Blizzard92

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3313 on: November 01, 2016, 06:39:12 AM »
Quite impressive...
Currently: Postdoctoral Research Associate - Princeton University & NOAA GFDL - Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
UC Irvine - Earth System Science Ph.D., M.Sc.
Cornell University - Atmospheric Sciences B.Sc.

Twitter: @ZLabe
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Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3314 on: November 01, 2016, 06:52:43 AM »
The forum is rather calm compared to May-June.

Anomalies for the last five days (27:th to 31:st of October), kept the larger images so it needs a click to animate.

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3315 on: November 01, 2016, 07:14:26 AM »
IJIS:

6,966,858 km2(October 31, 2016)up 45,710 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
I'll be dipped.  Didn't think it would happen, but we aren't going to pass 7 million KM2 until tomorrow.

Perhaps its time to begin drinking heavily.

Coffee or something stronger?

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3316 on: November 01, 2016, 09:02:06 AM »
IJIS:

6,966,858 km2(October 31, 2016)up 45,710 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
I'll be dipped.  Didn't think it would happen, but we aren't going to pass 7 million KM2 until tomorrow.

Perhaps its time to begin drinking heavily.

Coffee or something stronger?
Stronger.  Definitely stronger. 

And Sleepy, there's nothing about this I feel calm about. 
And yes, my reference regarding 7M KM2 was to the fact it will not be reached in October. 
       Perhaps I needed to qualify "by Nov 1 at the earliest..."
And as others have said, we are so astonishingly far behind where we should be in the refreeze.

And I thought *last* fall was bad with the cyclone cannons firing storm after storm into high latitudes. 

Anyone chatted with Wadhams lately?
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etienne

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3317 on: November 01, 2016, 09:28:44 AM »
Well, there is a record that we are breaking since mid October :-[, it is the 365 days average sea ice extent, at least with the AMSR2 data.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg92612.html#msg92612

Looking at the graphs in the IJIS context, I am sure that IJIS data would bring a similar result.
If somebody can tell me where to find it, I could calculate the IJIS 365 days average sea ice extent, but it is very easy to do for anybody having the data.

You need 3 columns in our spreadsheet:
- Date column
- Daily extent value column
- Average column. Here, you do an average of the actual and of the 364 preceding cells of the extent values column.

Best regards,

Etienne

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3318 on: November 01, 2016, 09:30:10 AM »
And Sleepy, there's nothing about this I feel calm about. 
Neither am I, that was also the sentiment of my comment below Zack Labe's.

I understood your previous comment after reading DavidR's comment above. Unfortunately we don't share our native language.

It may be positive if the anomalous QBO crash dives into westerlies, as it might have a dampening effect on major winter warmings later on during a solar minimum. But that's about the only positive thing I can think of right now. But then again, considering that's the largest disruption in the QBO we've seen, who knows how that will play out.

As for the booze, I'm too old and sleepy as it is. ;)

etienne

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3319 on: November 01, 2016, 10:24:30 AM »
Hello,

Here is the 365 days average sea ice extent graph.


2012 melting season record was 9915833 km^2 (average on 365 days before  mid May 2013) was broken around October 19th. We are now at 9869200 km^2 for the 365 average sea ice extent.

Best regards,

Etienne

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3320 on: November 01, 2016, 01:09:04 PM »
Well, there is a record that we are breaking since mid October :-[, it is the 365 days average sea ice extent, at least with the AMSR2 data.

Looking at the graphs in the IJIS context, I am sure that IJIS data would bring a similar result.
If somebody can tell me where to find it, I could calculate the IJIS 365 days average sea ice extent, but it is very easy to do for anybody having the data.

Etienne

I've long maintained a running tally of IJIS MTD and YTD averages. Here's a listing of 2016's YTD average alongside those of the previous ten years. 2016 is indeed number one:

2016: 9716314 - 1st
2015: 10024597 - 5th
2014: 10228208 - 6th
2013: 10342457 - 9th
2012: 9892023 - 2nd
2011: 9947928 - 3rd
2010: 10281409 - 7th
2009: 10521396 - 11th
2008: 10492644 - 10th
2007: 9981447 - 4th
2006: 10322813 - 8th

etienne

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3321 on: November 01, 2016, 03:58:31 PM »
Hello,
I've long maintained a running tally of IJIS MTD and YTD averages. Here's a listing of 2016's YTD average alongside those of the previous ten years. 2016 is indeed number one:

Your values are not exactly the same than mine. Do you work with data from January 1st to December 31st or is it just the lowest value that you have calculated on 365 days during the considered year ?

Etienne


plinius

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3322 on: November 01, 2016, 10:53:12 PM »
@jdallen: I did not respond specifically to you. Nevertheless - while extremely remarkable, the current setup does not yet predict the state of the ice in the next year. I hope you remember how bad 2012 looked mid October. Yet, 2013 was a pretty good year for the ice. We still don't know what the winter will bring and to highlight one positive aspect - for the next few days the Fram will be pretty much blocked (though with WLA and +15K anomalies...).

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3323 on: November 02, 2016, 05:05:05 AM »
IJIS:

7,034,195 km2(November 1, 2016 up 67,337 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

epiphyte

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3324 on: November 02, 2016, 05:17:07 AM »
Extent is anyway a bad measure. And to my knowledge, any volume measure is yet to achieve record-low values, isn't it?

Yes to the first. But on the second - Do we even have any volume measures, far less reliable ones, especially at this time of year? What we have is models; i.e. estimates based on past behavior, which arguably makes them of dubious relevance because current conditions are, from a modeling POV at least, unprecedented.

epiphyte

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3325 on: November 02, 2016, 05:20:49 AM »
IJIS:

6,966,858 km2(October 31, 2016)up 45,710 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
I'll be dipped.  Didn't think it would happen, but we aren't going to pass 7 million KM2 until tomorrow.

Perhaps its time to begin drinking heavily.

Tried that. Didn't work :)

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3326 on: November 02, 2016, 07:19:09 AM »
Extent is anyway a bad measure. And to my knowledge, any volume measure is yet to achieve record-low values, isn't it?

Yes to the first. But on the second - Do we even have any volume measures, far less reliable ones, especially at this time of year? What we have is models; i.e. estimates based on past behavior, which arguably makes them of dubious relevance because current conditions are, from a modeling POV at least, unprecedented.
Wait until 2018 and icesat-2.
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/icesat-2-technical-requirements
Hopefully there's some ice left during summer, which is also the worst time of year to measure thickness.

nukefix

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3327 on: November 02, 2016, 10:07:09 AM »
IceSat-2 requires clear-sky conditions to measure anything...hopefully a CryoSat-2 follow-on can be funded too..

Quote
ICESat-2 shall provide monthly surface elevation products to enable, when sea surface height references (leads) are available and under clear sky conditions, the determination of sea-ice freeboard to an uncertainty of less than or equal to 3 cm along 25-km segments for the Arctic and Southern Oceans

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3328 on: November 02, 2016, 10:57:52 AM »
I think im going to be optimistic and say by mid December we will have caught the other lines.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3329 on: November 02, 2016, 12:46:04 PM »
One last look at the remarkably slow extent increase for the month of October, with 1.93M km2, or just about half the 3.7M added in October 2007, or the 3.85M in October of 2012, or the 3.97M in October 2008. That's not to say things won't catch up; the long and frigid winter will see to that. But for now, this is indeed extraordinary.


Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3330 on: November 02, 2016, 02:25:20 PM »
IceSat-2 requires clear-sky conditions to measure anything...hopefully a CryoSat-2 follow-on can be funded too..

Quote
ICESat-2 shall provide monthly surface elevation products to enable, when sea surface height references (leads) are available and under clear sky conditions, the determination of sea-ice freeboard to an uncertainty of less than or equal to 3 cm along 25-km segments for the Arctic and Southern Oceans
Yes, but ICESat-2 will be using laser instead of radar. And radar is not good with open saline waters.

Funding would be easy if ESA could use some of what's spent on the US election.

abbottisgone

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3331 on: November 02, 2016, 02:31:46 PM »
Dear Neven,

                   

 if a temperature spike during the non winter months indicates a heat release from the oceans: what then does a set of timid temperature psuedo-spikes from anonymously above average temperatures say... "IS IT POTENTIALLY WORTHY OF VOLUMES OF LITERATURE?", is the question?

 ???

signed: curious as mustard  ;)

(NB: I do note that 2007 doesn't suffer from the preconditioning of 2016 but seems to almost end the same up until about now, November 1-ish)

(NBaswell: obviously no one can explain 2012)
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 02:51:39 PM by abbottisgone »
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3332 on: November 02, 2016, 02:40:32 PM »
I think im going to be optimistic and say by mid December we will have caught the other lines.

i hold against it :-) let's see, i believe that the earliest point of the two lowest lines to cross or merge will be when the curve is flattening which is not by mid december but quite a bit later,
already in 2017. this if the 2016/2017 line will reach the second lowest at all during the freezing season, this is by no means certain IMO. all conditions that lead to this slow down which BTW i
predicted at the end of september when extent was soaring, are still in place and the gap could even grow for another while and then i can't imagine that water temps will drop that quickly to allow a mid december merger of the current and the second lowest line.

however this, as always just for the fun of it without seeing the need to open a separate thread for all this stuff. enjoy further

cheers

Peter Ellis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3333 on: November 02, 2016, 02:50:19 PM »
IceSat-2 requires clear-sky conditions to measure anything...hopefully a CryoSat-2 follow-on can be funded too..

Quote
ICESat-2 shall provide monthly surface elevation products to enable, when sea surface height references (leads) are available and under clear sky conditions, the determination of sea-ice freeboard to an uncertainty of less than or equal to 3 cm along 25-km segments for the Arctic and Southern Oceans

Reminder for those looking at Cryosat and Icesat data: only 1/10 of ice is above the water. 3cm error on freeboard equals a 30cm error in ice thickness measurement.  This is the best we can do. So if there's a half meter discrepancy between one method and another, or between the satellite data and some other modelling system.... keep calm and don't sweat it.  It doesn't mean the data or the model are corrupt, just that measuring this stuff is really hard.

Darvince

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3334 on: November 02, 2016, 04:05:20 PM »
Wait, ice doesn't have a different refractive index compared to seawater that would allow detection of the ice below the surface? :o

nukefix

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3335 on: November 02, 2016, 06:20:23 PM »
Yes, but ICESat-2 will be using laser instead of radar. And radar is not good with open saline waters.
I'm not aware of problems with using radar-altimetry over ocean (saline), but I know that meltponds cannot be distinguished from leads in radar altimetry data. Can a laser-altimeter differentiate between meltponds and open sea I wonder? 

Peter Ellis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3336 on: November 02, 2016, 06:32:07 PM »
Wait, ice doesn't have a different refractive index compared to seawater that would allow detection of the ice below the surface? :o
Refraction's got nothing to do with it. They're looking for the reflection off the surface.  The top of the ice is above the water surface.  The difference between the two is called the freeboard.  They can measure this to an accuracy of 3cm.

Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3337 on: November 02, 2016, 07:45:25 PM »
Yes, but ICESat-2 will be using laser instead of radar. And radar is not good with open saline waters.
I'm not aware of problems with using radar-altimetry over ocean (saline), but I know that meltponds cannot be distinguished from leads in radar altimetry data. Can a laser-altimeter differentiate between meltponds and open sea I wonder?
Here's an article at NASA from August:
http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/nasa-monitors-the-new-normal-of-sea-ice
Quote
"We have a good handle on the sea ice area change," said Thorsten Markus, Goddard’s cryosphere lab chief. "We have very limited knowledge how thick it is."

Research vessels or submarines can measure ice thickness directly, and some airborne instruments have taken readings that can be used to calculate thickness. But satellites haven’t been able to provide a complete look at sea ice thickness in particular during melting conditions, Markus said. The radar instruments that penetrate the snow during winter to measure thickness don’t work once you add in the salty water of the melting sea ice, since the salinity interferes with the radar.

The Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2, or ICESat-2, will use lasers to try to get more complete answers of sea ice thickness. The satellite, slated to launch by 2018, will use a laser altimeter to measure the heights of Earth’s surface.

In the Arctic, it will measure the elevation of the ice floes, compared to the water level. However, only about one-tenth of sea ice is above the water surface; the other nine-tenths lie below.

To estimate the entire thickness of the ice floe, researchers will need to go beyond the above-water height measurements, and perform calculations to account for factors like the snow on top of the ice and the densities of the frozen layers. Scientists are eager to see the measurements turned into data on sea ice thickness, Markus said.

"If we want to estimate mass changes of sea ice, or increased melting, we need the sea ice thickness," he said. "It’s critically important to understanding the changes in the Arctic."

Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3338 on: November 02, 2016, 08:01:06 PM »
Hmmm.  If, with ICESat-2, they will know where the surface is (+/- 3 cm), they will be able to tell the differences between "leads" and "melt ponds" (more or less) when using data from other instruments that can pretty much distinguish between "water surface" and "ice surface".  OK, only where there aren't any clouds...

I like this!  Summertime SIA may become a measurable attribute.  Melt pond concentration may become more finely calculable.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3339 on: November 03, 2016, 04:58:56 AM »
IJIS:

7,167,227 km2(November 2, 2016)up 133,032 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3340 on: November 03, 2016, 05:29:09 AM »
I think im going to be optimistic and say by mid December we will have caught the other lines.

If the current sea temperatures are anything to go by there is not much room for optimism.  SST's across the Arctic were more than 1.1 deg above the previous record temperatures in October, according to NOAA. Thats on a value that has only varied by 8 degrees since 1948. The effect is particularly strong in areas where the ice is now forming.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

The record minimum rises rapidly over the next  couple of months, much faster than average. 

It may be next year before we see another day at values that are not a record. We need an increase 350K km^2 larger than the record since 2002,  to rise above lowest on record by Jan 1st.   Thats possible but not likely with the current hot waters.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

pauldry600

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3341 on: November 03, 2016, 10:28:39 AM »
133k cmonnn.

Surely a few 100k pluses are good or am i Arctic niave?

JMP

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3342 on: November 03, 2016, 03:37:49 PM »
I think im going to be optimistic and say by mid December we will have caught the other lines.

If the current sea temperatures are anything to go by there is not much room for optimism.  SST's across the Arctic were more than 1.1 deg above the previous record temperatures in October, according to NOAA. Thats on a value that has only varied by 8 degrees since 1948. The effect is particularly strong in areas where the ice is now forming.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

The record minimum rises rapidly over the next  couple of months, much faster than average. 

It may be next year before we see another day at values that are not a record. We need an increase 350K km^2 larger than the record since 2002,  to rise above lowest on record by Jan 1st.   Thats possible but not likely with the current hot waters.

Except we're in uncharted territory.  So, while I can see why you would think that way, SST will soon enough drop below the freezing point (1.9°C)  and then record increases in extent will probably follow.  That resulting ice may well be fragile and may melt-out early in Spring, and what is happening now may even increase the likelihood of a new low maximum, but the fact that the current low is so unprecedented probably actually means that the previous patterns will not be followed.

While I think saying that "we will have caught the other lines" entirely belies the severity of the real conditions, we are talking about extent, which is practically a two dimensional measurement in a very three dimensional world.  I do think that could technically happen given the amazing things we've already seen. 

And, here is support (for at least some of what ;) ) I'm saying in a 2010 article about both greater warming and greater heat loss in late fall - early winter which may appear to be counterintuitive.  "The trends in surface air temperature, sea ice concentration and the surface heat fluxes display remarkable spatial correspondence. The increased oceanic heat loss is likely a combination of the direct response to fall/winter sea ice loss, and the indirect response to summer sea ice loss and increased summer ocean heating." http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010GL044136/full 


Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3343 on: November 04, 2016, 04:28:32 AM »
Just like that old fridge in the garage, it just needed a good kick. Now it's working again.
Until it quits again, anyway. Espen can do the honors.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3344 on: November 04, 2016, 04:58:37 AM »
IJIS:

7,303,342 km2(November 3, 2016)up 136,115 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3345 on: November 05, 2016, 10:36:14 AM »
IJIS:

7,441,845 km2(November 4, 2016)up 138,503 km2  from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3346 on: November 05, 2016, 11:05:31 AM »
Just noticed this was the first year extent has been below 7 million km2 for 100 days.
Previous record was 2011 with 97 days.
What will the record be in 10 or 20 more years?

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3347 on: November 05, 2016, 11:46:31 AM »
Just noticed this was the first year extent has been below 7 million km2 for 100 days.
Previous record was 2011 with 97 days.
What will the record be in 10 or 20 more years?

> 200 days and not kidding

etienne

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3348 on: November 05, 2016, 08:47:13 PM »
Just noticed this was the first year extent has been below 7 million km2 for 100 days.
Previous record was 2011 with 97 days.
What will the record be in 10 or 20 more years?

Looks like this year is breaking all the records, excepted the minimum sea ice extent.

Etienne

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3349 on: November 06, 2016, 09:40:42 AM »
IJIS:

7,603,523 km2(November 5, 2016)up 161,678 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!