Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: IJIS  (Read 2659977 times)

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3707
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 420
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3350 on: November 07, 2016, 04:58:42 AM »
IJIS:

7,725,842 km2(November 6, 2016)up 122,319 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3351 on: November 07, 2016, 06:47:32 AM »
May I show the monthly mean for Nov as given by IJIS:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

This has to be relevant, IMHO!
« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 06:55:05 AM by abbottisgone »
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3352 on: November 07, 2016, 08:40:34 AM »
If I got it correct, we are up about 750K in just 6 days. Quite a lot. Should be one of the highest increses on record.

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3353 on: November 07, 2016, 01:54:52 PM »
Winds and MSLP for tomorrow, through nullshool.

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3354 on: November 07, 2016, 03:34:26 PM »
If I got it correct, we are up about 750K in just 6 days. Quite a lot. Should be one of the highest increses on record.

same reason like in september and the same ( stall ) will happen again

further a steep climb at this time of the year is totally normal and considering where we're coming from there is of course slightly more room for a steeper increase, while once the ice-edge will reach the still warmer than average waters we shall see another breath taking stall for a few days up to 1-2 weeks, depending on the weather pattern and general temps.

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 709
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 319
  • Likes Given: 278
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3355 on: November 07, 2016, 04:36:05 PM »
If I got it correct, we are up about 750K in just 6 days. Quite a lot. Should be one of the highest increses on record.

These are the maximum 6-Day gains from the JAXA daily data, since 2006.  The recent "rebound" is the smallest in the record, and came later in the year than any other year's biggest 6 day run.
Year      Max 6 Day Gain      Day of Year
2006       1,088,479       289
2007       1,249,338       296
2008       1,047,039       289
2009       883,684          304
2010       804,856          308
2011       1,234,430       300
2012       1,247,064       293
2013       780,502          285
2014       985,627          295
2015       1,088,601       292
2016       758,984          310

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3707
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 420
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3356 on: November 08, 2016, 05:02:05 AM »
IJIS:

7,841,406 km2(November 7, 2016)up 115,564 km2  from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3707
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 420
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3357 on: November 09, 2016, 05:02:08 AM »
IJIS:

7,967,889 km2(November 8, 2016)up 126,483 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 05:01:02 AM by Espen »
Have a ice day!

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3707
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 420
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3358 on: November 10, 2016, 04:59:51 AM »
IJIS:

8,028,909 km2(November 9, 2016)up 61,020 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Darvince

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 318
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3359 on: November 10, 2016, 06:44:50 AM »
Here comes the next slowdown! Choo choo!

Lennart van der Linde

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 785
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 87
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3360 on: November 10, 2016, 07:41:21 AM »
And the end of 120 days below 8 million km2, a new record, up from 117 days in 2012.

pccp82

  • New ice
  • Posts: 24
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3361 on: November 10, 2016, 05:05:49 PM »
Comparing this year to the 1990s average, a stunning 2,200,000 sq Km difference. Large enough to be the 12th largest nation, or about equal to the size of Greenland.

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3707
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 420
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3362 on: November 11, 2016, 04:58:08 AM »
IJIS:

8,135,123 km2(November 10, 2016)up 106,214 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

pauldry600

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 240
    • View Profile
    • weathergossip
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3363 on: November 12, 2016, 12:32:05 PM »
Think IJIS is down until November 15th for maintenance.

Can anyone clarify this?

100k increase a day should be reasonably close estimate

Jim Pettit

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3364 on: November 12, 2016, 03:46:23 PM »
November 15 is correct. From the ADS_NIPR Twitter feed:


Pmt111500

  • Guest
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3365 on: November 12, 2016, 03:54:53 PM »
No estimates available until the gap has ended.  ::) :P 8) :o ;)

theoldinsane

  • New ice
  • Posts: 66
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3366 on: November 12, 2016, 06:34:02 PM »
No estimates available until the gap has ended.  ::) :P 8) :o ;)

My estimate for November 14th is 8,475,100 km2 .  8)

Bill Fothergill

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3367 on: November 15, 2016, 01:13:13 PM »
It's back up and running!  :D

The numbers are still horrible.  :(

For those who preferred version 1, it can be found here...

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver1/vishop-extent.html

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3707
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 420
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3368 on: November 15, 2016, 08:21:16 PM »
IJIS:

8,434,463 km2(November 14, 2016)lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3707
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 420
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3369 on: November 16, 2016, 05:07:34 AM »
IJIS:

8,457,484 km2(November 15, 2016)up 23,021 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1678
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3370 on: November 16, 2016, 05:16:43 AM »
Looks like we are getting closer to the next big stall. The whole world is starting to take notice.
I mean, there are always the deniers, but mostly everyone else.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Bill Fothergill

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3371 on: November 16, 2016, 11:10:47 AM »
@ Tigertown,

The sheer mendacity and egregious cherry-picking of the denialist echo chamber cannot be underestimated. Look at the blue line that temporarily peeks out the bottom of the cluster over the next few days. That's the 2006 values.

Should there be a growth spurt in extent, and the IJIS/JAXA/ADS numbers rise by about 96k/day until the end of the month, the 2016 and 2006 values will have converged. At that stage, all that has just happened will be summarily dismissed, and the story line getting aired in Flatland will be "no change in the last 10 years".

Did you see the laughably pathetic offering made by the Global Warming Policy Foundation/Forum about 7 weeks ago?  http://archive.is/F1t3N

That's one of the reasons that I think less conventional metrics, such as the annual average, are important in getting the message across.

For some time, viddaloo has been banging that particular drum, both here, and on the ASIB.

pauldry600

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 240
    • View Profile
    • weathergossip
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3372 on: November 16, 2016, 02:10:50 PM »
At this slow rate next Summer could be a near blow torch.

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3373 on: November 16, 2016, 03:16:58 PM »
The problem with viddaloo is that he uses the weekly change of the annual average to project decadal changes. 2023. Bad example, very bad science of an opportunist who wants to cash out on a more than probable crash around the 2020's.
I wont say more.
But yes, the annual average speaks volumes

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3374 on: November 16, 2016, 07:39:28 PM »
Deniers will always find something to say, some piece of data to use. And Viddaloo was way too loud and cocky on this forum, and used half-baked science for his predictions. He couldn't grasp the concept of seasonally ice free as the next step from ice-covered year-round. My own preference is to stick to the scientific, find strong anomalies and interesting predictions, and let it all percolate. Those that will listen will listen.

Bill Fothergill

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3375 on: November 17, 2016, 12:54:07 AM »
@ seaicesailor & oren

Please do not read into my comment something that was simply not there - and certainly was never intended.

I have always considered longer-term averages to be more meaningful - and more statistically robust - than their short term equivalents. Way back in August (this thread #2941) I mentioned that the IJIS/ADS rolling annual average extent was already in very interesting territory, and that the regrowth rate following the Sept min would be instrumental in determining just how low this year's rolling annual average would become.

In my recent post (#3372), I merely mentioned that viddaloo had also been pointing this out for some time - both here and on the ASIB. The fact that he has recently started trying to extrapolate the current rate of change in the annual average extent is, I feel, a completely untenable position.

Several years ago, Neven posted an article of mine on the ASIB. In this, I argued that trying to extrapolate monthly average extents even a few months ahead was extremely problematic.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/06/problematic-predictions.html

Rob Dekker followed this up shortly afterwards by his own take on the difficulties involved in determining time series correlations.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/07/problematic-predictions-2.html

Given my views then, I am hardly going to subscribe to the notion that one can simply extrapolate a specific variable (in this case, a rate of change) several years into the future.

The projection (prediction?) made by viddaloo of a totally ice free Arctic in 2023 does not stand up to any serious scrutiny. Currently, the IJIS/ADS rolling annual average extent is dropping by around 3,000 sq kms each day. That comes about because today's value is approximately 1.1 million sq kms lower that the equivalent day's value in 2015. For as long as the differential between the 2016 extent and the same day's extent last year remains at about 1.1 million sq kms, the daily rate of change in the annual average extent will remain the same - i.e. dropping by about 3,000 sq kms each day.

However, there is absolutely no physical reason to suppose that, for the next 7 years, the daily extent will continue to be clocked up at 1.1 million sq kms below the value recorded on the same day of the previous year.

Even worse, the situation is mathematically impossible. Should, by some miracle, the 1.1 million offset from the previous year continue for the next 45 months, then, by late August 2020, the daily value will hit zero. As it is somewhat difficult to have a negative value for extent, the projection simply cannot continue in an unmodified form beyond that point. It simply does not make mathematical - never mind physical - sense.

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3376 on: November 17, 2016, 03:24:05 AM »
If the 2016 graph for extent catches the 2006 graph for extent then I do infact think the 'flatlanders' have a right to express emotion about that.

The truth likes to reveal itself... if they cobble their story together with lies and/or assumption then it becomes all the more telling and entropy takes over.

The media have their backs to the wall now,.. GLOBALLY,.. don't forget!

Saying all that:

 (...I don't think anyone with a brain is in a laughing mood regarding these clowns anymore: I was talking about the skeptics rights under STP conditions!!!)
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3707
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 420
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3377 on: November 17, 2016, 05:04:21 AM »
IJIS:

8,464,816 km2(November 16, 2016)up 7,332 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1279
  • Likes Given: 1127
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3378 on: November 17, 2016, 06:45:43 AM »
2016 is 600k under 2012, almost 1 million under 2011 and 1M+ under any other year. The low values of spring are coming back on autumn. Impressive!  :o :-[ I wonder how the Piomas figures will be.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1220
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3379 on: November 17, 2016, 06:48:37 AM »
Juan: Not meaning to sound negative, but I think you meant Depressive as opposed to impressive.

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1279
  • Likes Given: 1127
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3380 on: November 17, 2016, 06:55:58 AM »
Juan: Not meaning to sound negative, but I think you meant Depressive as opposed to impressive.

Maybe is a difference in the way we use "impressive" in spanish, but I meant shocking!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1220
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3381 on: November 17, 2016, 07:06:59 AM »
I figured that was what you meant. Pardon my twisted sense of humor.

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1279
  • Likes Given: 1127
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3382 on: November 17, 2016, 07:11:57 AM »
I figured that was what you meant. Pardon my twisted sense of humor.

It is great that someone has sense of humor, with Trump and these figures  8) (Seems that my sence of humor is more twisted than yours).
« Last Edit: November 17, 2016, 05:09:31 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Cato

  • New ice
  • Posts: 62
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3383 on: November 17, 2016, 10:56:23 AM »
Hi everybody, always reading this thread: one of my first-things in the morning. I would just like to highlight one issue that IMHO is very important and very well explains what is happening up there: there's been for quite a long time, several months actually, an anomalous persistence of HP in the north Pacific sector, namely in the Aleutian islands area.

This has enabled advection of very warm and humid air into the Arctic from the Bering strait. In summer, this has been the main reason for cloudy and stormy conditions in the Arctic, and for ice compaction towards the CAA. This trend has continued, leading to unusually warm air being pumped in the Arctic from the Pacific, which is happening right now actually, with the umpteenth advection of warm air from Bering and slowdown in the ice extension growth rate (if any at all!). The other side of the medal is the extremely cold conditions in Siberia, which are affecting an immense area, from Russia down to Mongolia and Kazakhstan.

It seems (!) that this synoptic configuration is changing in the next few days, with collapse of the HP blocking in the Aleutian and establishment of a very cold HP on the Artcic. This will lead to a collapse in arctic temperature and an increase of the ice growth rate accordingly. Far from suggesting that what is happening up there is "normal". It is not, definifinitely.

My point is, rather than pointing the finger only at the unusually high temperatures on the arctic, it would quite help to have a look at the synoptic configurations. This helps a lot understanding why it is so warm, and whether this anomaly is going to persist. IMHO we will see soon a significant change in the conditions up there. Too late to recover what has been lost? Probably yes. But at least, it will add some more drama to a movie that is getting too repetitive, isn't it?
« Last Edit: November 17, 2016, 11:25:46 AM by Cato »

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3384 on: November 18, 2016, 12:32:38 AM »
Nice opener, Cato! Welcome to the Forum.
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

Espen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3707
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 420
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3385 on: November 18, 2016, 05:46:11 AM »
IJIS:

8,418,099 km2(November 17, 2016)down 46,717 km2  from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1279
  • Likes Given: 1127
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3386 on: November 18, 2016, 05:56:28 AM »
It went down 46K km2. Not too much, but this mean that it has barely growth in the last 5 days. That is remarkable, noticing the low value that was having since the beginning of November. Now is 750k km2 lower than 2012 and more than one million lower than any other year. Wow!  :o

I bet that with this gap, 2016 will continue breaking the daily record, at least for the following four weeks!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Andre

  • New ice
  • Posts: 59
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3387 on: November 18, 2016, 06:00:08 AM »
Does anybody know if there have been drops during this time of year in the past?

Clearly, they must be extremely rare, at best.

Just trying to see whether past storm systems might have had similar effects on the ice, albeit short-lived ones.

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1279
  • Likes Given: 1127
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3388 on: November 18, 2016, 06:14:26 AM »
Does anybody know if there have been drops during this time of year in the past?

There was a drop from December 30th, 2015 to January 2nd, 2016. Other than that one, I am not sure it happened before.

Also on November 17-19, 2015.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

JMP

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3389 on: November 18, 2016, 07:41:28 AM »
Does anybody know if there have been drops during this time of year in the past?

There was a drop from December 30th, 2015 to January 2nd, 2016. Other than that one, I am not sure it happened before.

Also on November 17-19, 2015.

Why don't those show up on Espen's graph?   I see a December dip for 2007?  That's it. 

Tigertown

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1678
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3390 on: November 18, 2016, 07:51:29 AM »
His is zoomed in.  Look at the one in reply 822 in the 2016/2017 freezing season thread.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Paddy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1026
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 153
  • Likes Given: 151
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3391 on: November 18, 2016, 08:47:49 AM »
Do we think last year's lowest winter maximum record may be at risk if ice is forming this slowly now, or is it far too early to tell?

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3392 on: November 18, 2016, 09:07:59 AM »
Do we think last year's lowest winter maximum record may be at risk if ice is forming this slowly now, or is it far too early to tell?
I'm quite sure this will be a dismal freezing season, but extent doesn't necessarily reflect that, as the regional charts show. The extent record is set mainly in the Bering and Okhotsk seas, also in the Barents. I'll hazard a guess that Barents and Bering "should" be relatively low this year, Okhotsk is a wild card. Bottom line - far too early to tell.

JMP

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3393 on: November 18, 2016, 09:29:07 AM »
His is zoomed in.  Look at the one in reply 822 in the 2016/2017 freezing season thread.

OK, now I've looked at that.  I'm still not seeing the same sort of drop in December 2015.  Why in fact would zooming out reveal more detail?  ??? 

What's happening now still seems unprecedented.   

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3394 on: November 18, 2016, 12:12:20 PM »
Why in fact would zooming out reveal more detail?  ??? 
Simply because Dec 30 was outside of the zoomed-in date range.

pikaia

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 395
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 121
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3395 on: November 18, 2016, 12:42:07 PM »
I think this would compact the ice a lot and reduce the extent:

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 948
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 458
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3396 on: November 18, 2016, 12:56:53 PM »
Hi pikaia!

I think it may also bring some forward motion to that ice hanging over Fram?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Jim Pettit

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3397 on: November 18, 2016, 01:44:46 PM »
Does anybody know if there have been drops during this time of year in the past?

Clearly, they must be extremely rare, at best.

Very rare indeed, though as others have noted, they have happened in the past. However, yesterday's decrease of 46.7k is the largest one recorded in November in the past ten years, and  the second largest one measured in either October or November over that same ten years.

On a related note, someone here spoke of the annual average a few days ago. Here's a quick-and-dirty anomaly chart:



To coin an understatement: that's a *massive* departure.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2016, 03:37:33 PM by Jim Pettit »

pauldry600

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 240
    • View Profile
    • weathergossip
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3398 on: November 18, 2016, 02:37:19 PM »
OMG a drop.

Wasnt expecting that 13.5m max looks a bit distant now
but you never know.

If we paint everything white maybe the ocean will cool

This is a problem that cant really go now.

We can help slow it by being more enviromentally aware but enormous heated oceans cannot be refrozen to previous levels unless you have a hose that squirts ice non stop into the sea for 1,000 years full throttle.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: IJIS
« Reply #3399 on: November 18, 2016, 02:44:58 PM »
If I got the numbers and columns from JAXA correct for the years 2002-2015, there have been smaller dips in SIE  during not less than 10 occasions. The large number of dips in November really surprised me.

The occurrences are in chronological order: 6-7 November in 2003, 16-17 November 2005, between 17 and 20 November 2006, 11-13 November 2008, 11-12 November 2009, 5-6 November 2011, 4-6 and 24-25 November 2013, 8-9 November 2014 and 17-19 November 2015.

For the period 17-20 November 2006 there are unfortunely missing data for November 18-19 but the number at November 20 was lower than November 17. Interstingly, there were two dips in SIE during November 2013.

I haven't checked if this dip of 46K is the biggest one, but it wouldn't surprise me if it is.

Best, LMV