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dree12

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #200 on: July 06, 2013, 01:07:44 AM »
Seems like very small drop is that likely to be revised (compared to the last few days) is that likely to be revised?

It's not that small of a drop, and although it may be revised, I don't see anything odd with it.

Indeed, even upticks aren't unusual this time of year.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #201 on: July 06, 2013, 10:55:57 AM »
IJIS:

9,141,563 km2 (July 5, 2013)  down 113,906 km2

471,875 km2 above 2012.

226,672 km2 below 2000s average.
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wanderer

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #202 on: July 06, 2013, 11:39:46 AM »
IJIS:

10,632,500 km2 (June 20, 2013) down 29,375 km2 from previous (revised)

838,750 km2 above 2012

177,594 km2 above 2000s average

So we see what can happen within 15 days and there is still lots of ice that should have melted already, so I expected that we will get closer and closer to 2012 until the end of July

Gray-Wolf

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #203 on: July 06, 2013, 04:39:16 PM »
Correct ( IMHO) Wanderer!

Maybe folk going on PIOMAS and concentration alone ( and not eyeballing the situation on the ground) have been given a slightly skewed image of the Basin?

I worry that both Cryosat2 and Piomas have had difficulties assessing the total volume of areas where we have scant floes and 'Slush Puppy' and have nudged toward the 'Floe' data? From what I've seen of the 'Slush Puppy' as soon as it sees 'open water' it just vanishes???

How much 'Slush Puppy' do we have in C.A.B.?
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #204 on: July 06, 2013, 06:50:36 PM »
I worry that <snip> Piomas have had difficulties assessing the total volume of areas where we have scant floes and 'Slush Puppy'
Hi G-W,

WRT PIOMAS, their problem is a simplifying assumption made in the underlying model of the sea ice. PIOMAS uses one set of values for all type of sea ice: salinity, density, melting point. That means FYI and MYI both behave slightly differently than the median values chosen for the model parameters.

I think this is the reason why the Polar Science Center validation effort found that:

Quote
Note that from the comparison with in situ observations it appears that PIOMAS tends to overestimate thin ice and underestimates thick ice.
Note that FYI is composed of about 10% air bubbles. That causes it's density to be lower. The liquid brine portion of sea water contained within FYI IS dense, but it is NOT sea ice, and should be subtracted from the volume estimate. Again, one set of parameters does not fit all species of sea ice!

I estimate that overall it takes about 10% less energy to melt FYI than PIOMAS modeled sea ice, and perhaps 10% more energy to melt MYI than modeled ice. This causes problems later on as we'll see.

Note that PIOMAS did a terrible job predicting the September 2012 avg SIE in its Late Summer update to the SEARCH Project (3.9 +/- 0.32 M km2). About 270,000 km2 more ice melted in the event than PIOMAS predicted only 2 weeks earlier, almost all of it in FYI areas, while the MYI persisted.

So here's my take on PIOMAS's shortcoming for prediction: As the ratio of FYI/MYI increases, PIOMAS becomes increasingly inaccurate due to sea ice parameter mismatch.

The obvious fix is to model different types of sea ice, with persistence over time to age the ice.  ::)
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werther

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #205 on: July 06, 2013, 10:21:14 PM »
Thanks for sharing your viwe on how to interprete PIOMAS, Lodger.
Their model is practical, but as with the other traditional ways of data processing, it looks like it doesn't cope very well with the changing character of the Arctic.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #206 on: July 07, 2013, 10:56:13 AM »
IJIS:

9,033,594 km2 (July 6, 2013) down 107,969 km2 from previous.

451,094 km2 above 2012.

254,453 km2 below 2000s average.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #207 on: July 07, 2013, 05:55:57 PM »
Thanks for sharing your viwe on how to interprete PIOMAS, Lodger.
Their model is practical, but as with the other traditional ways of data processing, it looks like it doesn't cope very well with the changing character of the Arctic.

There's a bit more corroboration from interim CryoSat2 observations, as reported in the latest NSIDC Sea Ice Report, in the section subtitled "An Arctic pre-conditioned for rapid summer ice loss?"

Quote
According to Andrew Shepherd at the University of Leeds, preliminary results from the European Space Agency CryoSat satellite suggest that the ice pack was 8% thinner in March 2013 compared to March 2012.

Here's the PIOMAS thickness chart. Note that mid-March average sea ice thickness for both 2012 & 2013 is estimated to be 1.5 m. The new CryoSat2 results suggest that March 2013 average thickness should be closer to 1.38 m  :o

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #208 on: July 08, 2013, 10:56:16 AM »
IJIS:

8,886,406 km2 (July 7, 2013) down 147,188 km2 from previous.

378,593 km2 above 2012.

326,391 km2 below 2000s average.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #209 on: July 08, 2013, 02:49:50 PM »
IJIS:

8,886,406 km2 (July 7, 2013) down 147,188 km2 from previous.

378,593 km2 above 2012.

326,391 km2 below 2000s average.

Forgive my confusion but at this rate of melt out are we not going to overtake 2012 soon?

How many days of this kind of break neck melt until we have over taken 2012?

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #210 on: July 08, 2013, 03:00:11 PM »
IJIS:

8,886,406 km2 (July 7, 2013) down 147,188 km2 from previous.

378,593 km2 above 2012.

326,391 km2 below 2000s average.

Forgive my confusion but at this rate of melt out are we not going to overtake 2012 soon?

How many days of this kind of break neck melt until we have over taken 2012?

To get at level with 2012 eg. within a week (July 14)  we need an average of 157,143 km2 melt per day!
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #211 on: July 08, 2013, 03:16:23 PM »

Forgive my confusion but at this rate of melt out are we not going to overtake 2012 soon?

How many days of this kind of break neck melt until we have over taken 2012?

Over the last 5 days, with IJIS, we've lost extent at a rate of about 118k/day, compared to 2012 which over the same time, declined at about 85k/day. This has reduced the anomaly from 514k down to 376k.
Over the next 5 days in 2012, the melt rate increased in response to warming and a +ve dipole pattern, falling by 121k/day. So maintaining our current rate of loss, we won't gain much on 2012 until after the 12th.
If we maintain the loss rate of the last 5 days for the remainder of the month, we'd pass 2012 on the 21st

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #212 on: July 09, 2013, 10:56:18 AM »
IJIS:

8,746,250 km2 (July 8, 2013)  down 140,146 km2 from previous.

345,312 km2 above 2012.

398,000 km2 below 2000s average.
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Neven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #213 on: July 09, 2013, 11:15:55 AM »
7 out of the 8 first days have been century breaks in the IJIS SIE data set. Pretty amazing.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #214 on: July 09, 2013, 11:47:27 AM »
And 117,422 km2 on average! ;)
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #215 on: July 09, 2013, 03:43:37 PM »
And this is all before the Beaufort high pressure for the next 10 days....

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #216 on: July 09, 2013, 04:27:20 PM »
Big chunks of the Chukchi sea were at ~50% SIC on July 8, 2013:
(early-release AMSR2 L2 data from the 23:00 UTC swath)
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #217 on: July 09, 2013, 05:04:21 PM »
Dodger;

I expect a "few" movements in the next couple of weeks, but it is better to keep a low profile I guess! ;)
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #218 on: July 10, 2013, 10:56:22 AM »
IJIS:

8,609,531 km2 (July 9, 2013) down 136,719 km2 from previous.

367,812 km above 2102.

464,688 km2 below 2000s average.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #219 on: July 10, 2013, 11:30:27 AM »
And 117,422 km2 on average! ;)


Wouldn't that be higher.  I did today's based off 9 days.  Which comes out to 134,097K.  If I do it from 10 days then it's 120,687K.

Why would  we would be include June 30th into the daily count?  The June 30th number is used as the July starting point as like the ice extent through June 30th.

At the end of the month when you add in July 31st will you divide by 32?

On the other hand you may have used July 1st and subtracted that from July 8th and came up with that number but still divided by 8 instead of 7.  Again why would we do that.  It wouldn't include the ice extent change between June 30th and July 1st. 

Either way at the end of the month you will be dividing by 32 and that can't be right. 



On their website it says:

Quote
Sea-ice data is updated at around 9:00(UTC) every day


This would inherently imply the daily total is the end of day total for whatever date it fall's on. 
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #220 on: July 10, 2013, 12:25:30 PM »
8 out of the first 9 days of July had century breaks reported by IJIS. One or two more and it's a remarkable streak (although there have been much more century breaks reported since the switch to Windsat/AMSR2).

There, I jinxed it.  ;D
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #221 on: July 10, 2013, 12:53:39 PM »
For the remaining 22 days of July, IJIS Extent needs to drop an average of 101.5K/day to catch 2007 by the 31st of July.

With the forecast for the next 7-10 days, I see the potential for a great deal of melting, compaction and export of ice.  It will be interesting how many of those days exceed 100K losses.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #222 on: July 11, 2013, 10:56:18 AM »
IJIS:

8,522,813 km2 (July 10, 2013)  down 86,718 km2 from previous.

407,344 km2 above 2012.

482,359 km2 below 2000s average.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #223 on: July 11, 2013, 02:43:18 PM »
CT area 6.5221415 Mkm^2.(-135k)

There is a lot of air in the extent balloon.

Two million point zero zero zero to be exactly approximate.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #224 on: July 11, 2013, 09:10:01 PM »
Yes, CAPIE is about 75.8% for July 9, 2013.

Look for real fireworks to start when CAPIE crosses below 70%.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #225 on: July 12, 2013, 08:56:28 AM »
Very little Windsat data available. Will there be an IJIS update to day?

http://www.ssmi.com/windsat/windsat_data_daily.html

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #226 on: July 12, 2013, 10:56:26 AM »
Ijis:

8,415,313 km2 (July 11, 2013)  down 107,500 km2 from previous.

410,157 km2 above 2012.

515,578 km2 below 2000s average.



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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #227 on: July 12, 2013, 01:43:51 PM »
For the remaining 20 days of July, IJIS Extent needs to drop an average of 102K/day to catch 2007 by the 31st of July.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #228 on: July 12, 2013, 02:05:20 PM »
For the remaining 20 days of July, IJIS Extent needs to drop an average of 102K/day to catch 2007 by the 31st of July.
And "only" 95,805 km2 / day to catch 2012.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #229 on: July 12, 2013, 02:45:38 PM »
Looking Ahead to August

For the remaining 20 days of July, IJIS Extent needs to drop an average of 102K/day to catch 2007 by the 31st of July.
And "only" 95,805 km2 / day to catch 2012.

Espen,

The reason I'm looking at how much we need to lose to match 2007 is the fact that 2013 almost needs to be well ahead of 2012 by the end of July.  The 60 day window in the chart below shows that 2013 has gained a great deal of ground in the past 3 weeks, however, in early August last year, GAC-2012 caused havoc for almost a week.  I've made a table of extent losses, for the first 21 days of August, in years 2007, 2011 & 2012.  Even after GAC-2012 left the scene, 2012's daily losses were well above the other record setting years.

The question remains.......will 2013's extent losses in August be in the 60K+ range or the 90K+ range??



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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #230 on: July 12, 2013, 05:05:36 PM »
OldLeatherneck;

What is wrong with a GAC-2013 or another kind of weather beast? But I see what you mean!
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #231 on: July 13, 2013, 10:57:12 AM »
IJIS:

8,343,281 km2 (July 12, 2013) down 108,282 km2 from previous (revised)

441,875 km2 above 2012.

516,703 km2 below 2000s average.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #232 on: July 13, 2013, 11:17:08 AM »
The revision sets up tomorrow for a big drop.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #233 on: July 13, 2013, 11:31:01 AM »
Eh?  No, the revision set up <i>today</i> for a big drop, by increasing yesterday's figure.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #234 on: July 14, 2013, 10:56:16 AM »
IJIS:

8,169,063 km2 (July 13, 2013)  down 174,218 km2 from previous.

325,938 km2 above 2012.

613,672 km2 below 2000s average.

Only 2007- 2010- 2011 and 2012 was lower.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #235 on: July 14, 2013, 11:27:43 AM »
For the remaining 18 days of July, IJIS Extent needs to drop an average of 99.7K/day to catch 2007 by the 31st of July.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #236 on: July 14, 2013, 12:44:05 PM »
Studying Modis , Bremen and particularly Bremen, I believe we are heading for some heavy drops all around the board in the next few days. The "Deep Purple" color is almost gone now from Bremen.

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #237 on: July 14, 2013, 12:49:15 PM »
Studying Modis , Bremen and particularly Bremen, I believe we are heading for some heavy drops all around the board in the next few days. The "Deep Purple" color is almost gone now from Bremen.

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

Very good chance of going below 2010 during this upcoming few days and significantly closing the gap with 2007, 2011 and 2012.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #238 on: July 14, 2013, 06:58:23 PM »
Very good chance of going below 2010 during this upcoming few days and significantly closing the gap with 2007, 2011 and 2012.
Quite right, OLN

Indeed, 2013 is just 3.5 days behind 2012 at the current 10-day rate of SIE loss:

(9327188-8169063)/-325938 = -3.55

And, 2012 was a leap year, so make that 2.5 days behind 2012.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #239 on: July 14, 2013, 07:27:24 PM »
By the end of July 2012 Kara and Beaufort hit ~zero.  Once a region zeros out it can no longer contribute to the daily melt.




At the end of July 2013 both regions will almost certainly have significant ice left to melt and those melts will add to the August 2013 loss totals. 

Only Chukchi looks like it might melt out quicker in 2013 than it did in 2012.  Bering and Okhotsk melted quicker in 2013 than in 2012, but they're ~zeroed out and have no more role to play this year.

Might want to be watching for 2013 to make major gains on 2012 during early August as Kara and Beaufort finish their probable melt.

« Last Edit: July 14, 2013, 07:45:10 PM by Bob Wallace »

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #240 on: July 15, 2013, 10:56:18 AM »
IJIS:

8,069,063 km2 (July 14, 2013) down 100,000 km2 from previous.

282,657 km2 above 2012.

632,156 km2 below 2000s average.

Only 2007, 2011 and 2012 was lower.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #241 on: July 15, 2013, 11:19:28 AM »
Espen,

Where did you find today's updated number.  I haven't seen it yet on the graphs page on the ASIB.

Secondly, don't you find it rather odd that the drop was exactly 100,000??
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #242 on: July 15, 2013, 11:21:33 AM »
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Nothing is too odd this summer ;-)

17 more days of this and we catch 2012 and 2007!

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #243 on: July 15, 2013, 11:29:19 AM »
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Nothing is too odd this summer ;-)

17 more days of this and we catch 2012 and 2007!

That's the same link as the one on ASIB's Graph page and it has not been updated since the 13th, which showed an extent of 8,169,063.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #244 on: July 15, 2013, 11:30:00 AM »
Refresh the page!

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #245 on: July 15, 2013, 11:36:03 AM »
Refresh the page!

Thanks!!

If that number is not revised upward, we have just eclipsed 2010 and now are only chasing 2007, 2011 &2012.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #246 on: July 15, 2013, 11:39:47 AM »
Espen,

Where did you find today's updated number.  I haven't seen it yet on the graphs page on the ASIB.

Secondly, don't you find it rather odd that the drop was exactly 100,000??

100,000 km2 is as odd as any number I guess?
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #247 on: July 15, 2013, 01:50:59 PM »
Espen,

Where did you find today's updated number.  I haven't seen it yet on the graphs page on the ASIB.

Secondly, don't you find it rather odd that the drop was exactly 100,000??

100,000 is an integral number of pixels, it would be surprising not to see it occasionally.

pearscot

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #248 on: July 15, 2013, 05:09:00 PM »
I'm very surprised at how quickly 2013 is catching up...

pls!

Artful Dodger

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #249 on: July 15, 2013, 06:58:34 PM »
Secondly, don't you find it rather odd that the drop was exactly 100,000??
Hi OLN,

100,000 km2 SIE is exactly 640 'cells' of 12.5 square km, which is the size used by IJIS:

http://www.google.com/search?q=100000%2F(12.5^2)
Cheers!
Lodger