Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Renewable Energy  (Read 1518311 times)

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1900 on: August 19, 2017, 11:53:36 PM »

The external cost of burning coal is extremely high.  Simply tallying public health impacts, only health impacts, coal costs the United States economy $140 billion to $242 billion a year.

http://www.chgeharvard.org/sites/default/files/epstein_full%20cost%20of%20coal.pdf

A study published in Nature Energy has calculated the amount of money saved in the US over the last decade by replacing part of our coal use with renewable energy.  Millstein et al. estimated that between 3,000 and 12,700 premature deaths have been averted because of air quality benefits over the last decade or so.  Those avoided early deaths have created a total economic benefit between $30 billion and $113 billion.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nenergy2017134

Coal has dropped from producing over 50% of US electricity 13 years ago to 30% in 2016.

That’s only avoided early deaths.  Many additional billions have likely been saved through avoided health care for non-fatal pollution caused illness and lost work days. 

Between 1994 and 2009 wind and solar received subsidies of $5.6 billion. Adding in the 2010 through 2016 (roughly calculated) subsidies the total comes to about $31.5 billion.

What the Millstein study finds that the US has already recovered every dollar spent subsidizing wind and solar, possibly saving many billions of dollars in excess of recovered subsidies. 

And a lot all health benefits are not included in that $30 billion to $131 billion.  Then add in environmental damage.  We've likely enjoyed an incredible return on investment.

More details from the Millstein study. 

"The researchers found that the US saved between $35 billion and $220 billion in that period because of avoided deaths, fewer sick days, and climate-change mitigation."


rboyd

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1334
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 226
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1901 on: August 21, 2017, 12:16:47 AM »
In 2016 modern renewables provided 1.6% of global energy consumption: REN21 2017 Report

7.9% of global electricity consumption.

As long as economic growth continues, and with it increases in energy consumption, then new renewables have to offset that increase first before they can reduce fossil fuel usage. The low growth in traditional biomass provides another thing that needs to be offset for overall renewables to grow faster than overall energy usage. Then reductions in nuclear add another thing that has to be offset for low carbon energy to grow faster than overall energy consumption.

"The overall share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption has increased only modestly in recent history,despite tremendous growth in the renewable energy sector, particularly for solar PV and wind power. A primary reason for this is the persistently strong growth in overall energy demand (with the exception of a momentary pull-back in 2009 following the onset of a global economic recession), which counteracts the strong forward momentum for modern renewable energy technologies. In addition, the use of traditional biomass for heat, which makes up nearly half of all renewable energy use, has increased, but at a rate that has not kept up with growth in total demand"

http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/17-8399_GSR_2017_Full_Report_0621_Opt.pdf

the REN21 report cautioned that the transition to renewable energy is not happening fast enough to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement. It said that investment in the sector has dropped, with funding for new renewable energy installations down 23 percent compared to 2015

"In developing and emerging markets, renewable energy investment - primarily in wind and solar - fell 30 percent to $116.6 billion (103 billion euros) in 2016. In developed countries, investment dropped by 14 percent to $125 billion"

http://www.dw.com/en/china-leading-the-way-in-solar-energy-expansion-as-renewables-surge/a-39081117


« Last Edit: August 21, 2017, 12:30:01 AM by rboyd »

rboyd

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1334
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 226
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1902 on: August 21, 2017, 12:24:40 AM »
2017 Wind Installations Following GWEC Forecast of ~10% per year capacity growth through 2022

800GW installed global capacity by 2022, just under 60GW installed in 2017. Forecast is for a flat 2018, rising to 75GW increase in 2021.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ugc/articles/2017/07/31/wind-energy-in-2017--a-mid-year-update-from-gwec.html

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ugc/articles/2017/04/26/gwec-annual-market-update-and-short-term-forecast--more-than-800-gw-globally-by-2021.html

rboyd

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1334
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 226
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1903 on: August 21, 2017, 12:49:07 AM »
The Long Slow Rise of Solar and Wind: Vaclav Smil

He may be a little pessimistic, but he does bring a strong dose of reality into the energy transition discussion.

ALL IN PRICING (carbon taxes, new grid costs etc.)

"At the same time, prices of all forms of energy should reflect, as much as possible, the real costs, which include both the immediate and the long-term environmental and health impacts of creating that energy. The impacts range from greenhouse gases and black carbon from burning fossil fuels, to soil erosion, nitrogen runoff and water depletion caused by growing corn for ethanol, to the cost of a high-voltage supergrid to link far-flung wind and solar farms. This reality check can reveal long-term advantages of energy sources."

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

"The most important way to speed up the gradual transition to renewables is to lower overall energy use. The faster demand rises, the harder it is to supply a large fraction of it. Recent studies have shown that there are no insurmountable technical problems to reducing energy use by a third, both in the affluent world and in rapidly modernizing countries, notably through efficiency gains. As we reduce demand, we can retire the old fossil sources."

HIGHER ENERGY COSTS

'People and politicians in wealthy nations must also accept the fact that during the past half a century the price of energy, though rising, has been extraordinarily low in historic terms. Rich countries should pay more to properly account for energy’s environmental and health consequences."

A MULTI-GENERATIONAL PROJECT

"Energy transitions on a national or global scale are inherently protracted affairs. The unfolding shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources will be no exception. It will require generations of perseverance."

http://www.vaclavsmil.com/wp-content/uploads/scientificamerican0114-521.pdf

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1904 on: August 21, 2017, 02:04:17 AM »
If you don't pay major attention to the rapidly dropping prices of wind, solar and storage then you are wandering blindly into the future.

If you look at recent decreases in spending on renewables you may be missing the increasing capacity additions.  As prices fall one gets more bang from their buck.

We are about to experience a falling off a cliff change in cost of road travel.

As for Vaclav, he's ignoring the fact that we see the cost of electricity falling or at least stalling out as renewables are added to grids.  I suspect he totally does not understand exponential change or at least is failing to see it happening.

All these prognosticators who are predicting the future by looking at the past are going to lead others astray.  Look ahead by using the trends.  Don't try to figure out where you are going by looking in your rear view mirror.

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1905 on: August 21, 2017, 07:20:25 AM »
Just need to continue the trend of reduced pushback from coastal folks complaining about the "unnatural view" of offshore turbines.

(Too bad we didn't feel equally upset about belching smokestacks on land. ::) )


Ramen !!


Terry

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1906 on: August 22, 2017, 03:15:17 AM »
Bob: it's still disappointing that investment would fall. If the investment were the same, we'd see a 20% YoY increase rather than only 10%.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 81
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1907 on: August 22, 2017, 02:18:25 PM »
'Cyborg' bacteria deliver green fuel source from sunlight
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-40975719

Quote
"It's all very simple, mix-in-a-pot-chemistry."

These newly boosted bacteria produce acetic acid, essentially vinegar, from CO2, water and light. They have an efficiency of around 80%, which is four times the level of commercial solar panels, and more than six times the level of chlorophyll.

"We prize these cyborg bacteria and their ability to make acetate because they produce a substrate that we can already use to produce more valuable and more interesting products," said Dr Sakimoto.

"We have collaborators who have a number of strands of E. coli that are genetically engineered to take acetic acid as their food source and they can upgrade it into butanol and a polymer called polyhydroxybutyrate."

probably some way off if ever:

Quote
"We are now looking for more benign light absorbers than cadmium sulphide to provide bacteria with energy from light."

The researchers believe that while their approach has taken an important new step, it might not ultimately be the technology that prevails.

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1908 on: August 22, 2017, 03:07:36 PM »
Now that would make a great school science project: make a vinegar volcano powered by sunlight!

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2357
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 207
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1909 on: August 22, 2017, 05:43:36 PM »
The Long Slow Rise of Solar and Wind: Vaclav Smil

http://www.vaclavsmil.com/wp-content/uploads/scientificamerican0114-521.pdf

I really appreciate his stuff but it should be noted that this doc is based on 2013 data, global renewables published by RMI show big advances since then. https://rmi.org/news/rmis-2017-micropower-database-release-electricity-generation-micropower-rise-nuclear-powers-output-share-continues-flatline/

note that the entire rise in the curve is due to increased solar and wind generation capacity.

Haiku of Futures Passed
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1910 on: August 22, 2017, 06:34:25 PM »
Quote
'Cyborg' bacteria deliver green fuel source from sunlight

Upon seeing stories like this hold off on the happy dance until you figure out the CO2 concentration.

Atmospheric levels of CO2?  Start dancing.

Concentrated CO2?  Then we'd have to keep burning fossil fuels in a CCS plant to get the CO2.  And then we'd end up putting the CO2 into the atmosphere.

I have yet to see one of these ideas that was not fatally flawed because they all use coal, oil, or NG as feedstock.  At best, they might squeeze a bit more work out of the energy before adding to our GHG problems.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1911 on: August 22, 2017, 06:43:52 PM »

Vaclav writes based on 2013 data.  Three year old data can be very dated in today's rapidly moving RE world.  Look at how wind and solar have been growing compared to nuclear in the US.

These lines start with the year in which first generated 20 TWh of electricity.



Wind is about the same as nuclear.  Later on nuclear will stall out because prices kept rising.  Wind is already cheap and should become even less expensive.

Solar is smokin'!!

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1912 on: August 22, 2017, 07:41:39 PM »
I have yet to see one of these ideas that was not fatally flawed because they all use coal, oil, or NG as feedstock.  At best, they might squeeze a bit more work out of the energy before adding to our GHG problems.

If you hook one of these up to an incineration plant, or a biomass plant, it works out. You burn mixed plastics and paper, food scraps, human waste etc; then convert some of the resulting gas into something useful.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1913 on: August 23, 2017, 01:58:33 AM »
California power grid survives solar eclipse unscathed
Quote
FOLSOM, Sacramento County — Monday’s partial eclipse statewide took a sharp, sudden bite out of solar power production in California.

And the electricity grid survived just fine.

Shortly after 9 a.m., the state’s fast-multiplying solar farms were plunged into semi-darkness, just when they would normally be revving up.

At the control center for California’s electricity grid in Folsom, display screens showed solar generation plummeting as the eclipse neared its midmorning peak. Electricity from hydroelectric dams and natural gas power plants surged to pick up the slack. ...
http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/California-power-grid-survives-solar-eclipse-11948034.php
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1914 on: August 23, 2017, 05:10:55 PM »
I have yet to see one of these ideas that was not fatally flawed because they all use coal, oil, or NG as feedstock.  At best, they might squeeze a bit more work out of the energy before adding to our GHG problems.

If you hook one of these up to an incineration plant, or a biomass plant, it works out. You burn mixed plastics and paper, food scraps, human waste etc; then convert some of the resulting gas into something useful.

I don't see any problem with that.  Except that the supply of feedstock would likely be so low that the fuel produced would be very small.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1915 on: August 23, 2017, 09:15:05 PM »
Offshore wind turbine installation vessel.  They extend legs to the sea floor and "jack up" out of the water.

Drone video of the ship, leaving port.
https://mobile.twitter.com/humberdrone/status/900090902298939392

There's a little video on company's website: http://www.a2sea.com/fleet/sea-installer/

More here: http://gcaptain.com/windfarming/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

rboyd

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1334
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 226
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1916 on: August 24, 2017, 07:15:53 PM »
Posted in the Germany thread as well.

Wind power hit record low price in German auctions. Few are happy.

The structure of the auctions gave precedence to "citizen" projects, quite a few of which seem to be fronts for big companies. These projects don't have to have an environmental impact assessment in place, and have 54 months (rather than 30) to complete the project. Overall impact will be to delay the implementation of the next bunch of wind projects, slowing down the growth of wind capacity within Germany.

"There has been the great criticism of the auction’s definition of “citizen projects.” The government has already stated that this category will be done away with for future auctions; there was simply not enough time to get rid of it in the second round based on the results from the first round (report in German), in which a company called Enertrag organized citizen groups in order to become eligible for preferential treatment.

“Citizen projects” have 54 months to be built instead of 30 months – though that shorter timeframe is already quite generous. In addition, citizen wind projects do not have to already have an environmental impact assessment, which under German law is essentially also a construction permit, to take part in the auctions."

"As in the first round, it is not certain that all of these winning projects will actually pass the environmental impact assessment, which they nonetheless need in order to start building. The result could be a very low volume of new builds starting in 2019 because “citizen projects” from 2017 have until 2021/2022 to be completed. This downturn may not yet be felt fully in 2018 because of the current backlog of projects under construction."

https://energytransition.org/2017/08/wind-power-hit-record-low-price-in-german-auctions-few-are-happy/

sidd

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6774
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1047
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1917 on: August 25, 2017, 08:03:27 AM »

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1918 on: August 26, 2017, 04:34:15 PM »
Time to reinvent windows!

BIPV: Researchers develop solar glass blocks to power houses
Researchers at the UK’s Exeter University have created solar cell-embedded glass bricks, which in addition to generating electricity let in natural light and provide thermal insulation.
Quote
Just months after the debut of Tesla’s long-awaited Solar Roof tiles, which it has begun installing on the homes of its employees, a group of researchers from the University of Exeter have come up with another BIPV solution – a glass block, which can be incorporated into the fabric of a building, replacing traditional brick and mortar, and is designed to collect solar energy and convert it to electricity.

The block, called Solar Squared, has intelligent optics that focus the incoming solar radiation onto small solar cells, enhancing the overall energy generated by each solar cell. The electricity generated in this way is then available to power the building, be stored or used to charge electric vehicles.

The researchers believe that in addition to powering the building while allowing greater amounts of light in, their blocks provide improved thermal insulation. ...
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/08/24/bipv-researchers-develop-solar-glass-blocks-to-power-houses/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1919 on: August 26, 2017, 05:37:05 PM »
Time to reinvent windows!

BIPV: Researchers develop solar glass blocks to power houses
Researchers at the UK’s Exeter University have created solar cell-embedded glass bricks, which in addition to generating electricity let in natural light and provide thermal insulation.
Quote
Just months after the debut of Tesla’s long-awaited Solar Roof tiles, which it has begun installing on the homes of its employees, a group of researchers from the University of Exeter have come up with another BIPV solution – a glass block, which can be incorporated into the fabric of a building, replacing traditional brick and mortar, and is designed to collect solar energy and convert it to electricity.

The block, called Solar Squared, has intelligent optics that focus the incoming solar radiation onto small solar cells, enhancing the overall energy generated by each solar cell. The electricity generated in this way is then available to power the building, be stored or used to charge electric vehicles.

The researchers believe that in addition to powering the building while allowing greater amounts of light in, their blocks provide improved thermal insulation. ...
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/08/24/bipv-researchers-develop-solar-glass-blocks-to-power-houses/

No statement of solar efficiency.

No statement of insulation efficiency.

No price data.


etienne

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2045
    • View Profile
    • About energy
  • Liked: 309
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1920 on: August 27, 2017, 07:40:02 AM »
It takes 2 to 5 years from the lab to the shop, if it ever takes the way. In the most cases I know, final use of the technology is far away from the lab prototype, maybe this will be the future roofs of cars or ships. This is why freedom of research is important, when developping a new technology, it is impossible to know what industry will do with it.

RealityCheck

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 174
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1921 on: August 27, 2017, 09:10:25 AM »
A few thoughts from a lurker with some RE background, offered FWIW.

I examined the question of 'reasonable max RE capacity' of Ireland using indigenous sources only - no biofuel imports, etc. This followed the general approach of 'Renewable Energy without the Hot Air' by David MacKay - I happen to like his style of thinking in that work.

So, Ireland has low population density, large dairy and beef industry, no nuclear power (by legal prohibition), high penetration of wind power by installed rated capacity, high incoming wave energy from the Atlantic; etc.

I examined 3 different mixes for the form of final energy consumed.

So, it turns out that, making 'reasonable' assumptions about max physical limits - land available, plant growth rates, construction constraints for RE installations, future RE technology rollout for wave and offshore wind, etc, the answer is 'Yes' - Ireland could become self sufficient through RE for all 3 major sectors of electricity, transport and heating - in theory. The main downsides? Kill all the cattle, and all trees grown for crops used for heating. Not pretty, if you're a dairy or beef farmer. Also, major reliance on offshore RE in deep, wild Atlantic waters.

So in my view, we must push for max electrification of energy systems, embrace smart flexible grid solutions, empower distribution grids to accept high intermittent RE penetration, and get very serious about energy efficiency.

And even then, still find a way to capture CO2 at atmospheric concentrations economically. (Maybe turn it into gypsum for building products?) 'Cos RE is all very well, but we still have to reverse the GCC juggernaut humanity has unleashed upon the planet...

Nothing like a challenge!

Sic transit gloria mundi

etienne

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2045
    • View Profile
    • About energy
  • Liked: 309
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1922 on: August 27, 2017, 10:00:55 AM »
So in my view, we must push for max electrification of energy systems, embrace smart flexible grid solutions, empower distribution grids to accept high intermittent RE penetration, and get very serious about energy efficiency.
I totally agree, but we have another challenge : efficiency and smart grid don't intersect everywhere. I see always more low efficiency systems developped in order to use PV power in excess.  The idea is for example that it would be better to heat electrically your sanitary water with PV power than to use the heat pump with grid power.

I don't like this way of working, and I believe that these are short time solutions. When EV and batteries will be more comon, all these systems will become obsolete. You could always say that the electrical water heater is a simulation of the loading of the EV that you will buy sometimes during the next 5 years, but these systems are too expensive to be just simulators. I would prefer to see efficient storage solutions, or production of usefull products like hydrogen.

In the cars, cars and more trend, we have a nice graph showing that EV are 3 times better than fuel cell vehicules
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg126012.html#msg126012
but this is the same difference than between a heat pump and an electrical heater, just that hydrogen keeps its energy power over time, and overheated sanitary water just cools off because you can't have a 100% insulation.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1923 on: August 27, 2017, 10:35:31 AM »
It may interest regular readers to learn that after waxing lyrical about "energy storage" for quite some time the UK Government has finally decided to pump some money into vehicle-to-grid technology:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/innovative-vehicle-to-grid-technology-to-receive-20-million

There's also this recent research paper:

Can V2G Improve EV Battery Life?

Quote
We show that an EV connected to this smart-grid system can accommodate the demand of the power network with an increased share of clean renewable energy, but more profoundly that the smart grid is able to extend the life of the EV battery beyond the case in which there is no V2G.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1924 on: August 27, 2017, 04:22:15 PM »
A few thoughts from a lurker with some RE background, offered FWIW.

I examined the question of 'reasonable max RE capacity' of Ireland using indigenous sources only - no biofuel imports, etc. This followed the general approach of 'Renewable Energy without the Hot Air' by David MacKay - I happen to like his style of thinking in that work.

So, Ireland has low population density, large dairy and beef industry, no nuclear power (by legal prohibition), high penetration of wind power by installed rated capacity, high incoming wave energy from the Atlantic; etc.

I examined 3 different mixes for the form of final energy consumed.

So, it turns out that, making 'reasonable' assumptions about max physical limits - land available, plant growth rates, construction constraints for RE installations, future RE technology rollout for wave and offshore wind, etc, the answer is 'Yes' - Ireland could become self sufficient through RE for all 3 major sectors of electricity, transport and heating - in theory. The main downsides? Kill all the cattle, and all trees grown for crops used for heating. Not pretty, if you're a dairy or beef farmer. Also, major reliance on offshore RE in deep, wild Atlantic waters.

So in my view, we must push for max electrification of energy systems, embrace smart flexible grid solutions, empower distribution grids to accept high intermittent RE penetration, and get very serious about energy efficiency.

And even then, still find a way to capture CO2 at atmospheric concentrations economically. (Maybe turn it into gypsum for building products?) 'Cos RE is all very well, but we still have to reverse the GCC juggernaut humanity has unleashed upon the planet...

Nothing like a challenge!

Why would you kill all the cattle, and all trees grown for crops used for heating?

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1925 on: August 27, 2017, 04:32:44 PM »
We should be getting some interesting information about how well wind turbines do or do not hold up in very strong hurricanes as Harvey's impact is assessed.


Quote
Several large wind farms may be in the line of sight for Hurricane Harvey. Wind projects including Harbor Wind (9 megawatts, MW), Papalote Creek I (180 MW), and Papalote Creek II (200 MW), Baffin (188 MW), Penascal I (202 MW), Penascal II (201 MW), Pattern Gulf (283 MW), Magic Valley (203 MW), Los Vientos Wind 1A (200 MW) and 1B (202 MW) and Cameron 1 (165 MW) may see hurricane force winds.

To date, no wind farm in the United States has been destroyed by a hurricane. Neither Hurricane Iselle (Hawaii, 2014), Hurricane Sandy (New Jersey, 2012), nor Hurricane Irene (Delaware, 2011) harmed wind farms. Wind farms in hurricane-prone coastal zones are frequently designed to withstand hurricane-force winds, up to level Category 3 hurricanes. For self preservation purposes, wind turbines automatically shut down when wind speeds reach excessive levels. Hurricane Harvey is slated to become a Category 3 storm, and may test the limits of turbine engineering.

http://blog.cleanenergy.org/2017/08/25/hurricaneharvey/

I think Harvey strengthened to a Cat 4 before reaching the coast.  According to the map on the linked site it looks like at least one coastal wind farm has taken a direct hit (or only slightly off the center).

The linked site has a good description of how turbines and towers are designed to deal with large storms.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1926 on: August 27, 2017, 04:32:53 PM »
It may interest regular readers to learn that after waxing lyrical about "energy storage" for quite some time the UK Government has finally decided to pump some money into vehicle-to-grid technology:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/innovative-vehicle-to-grid-technology-to-receive-20-million

There's also this recent research paper:

Can V2G Improve EV Battery Life?

Quote
We show that an EV connected to this smart-grid system can accommodate the demand of the power network with an increased share of clean renewable energy, but more profoundly that the smart grid is able to extend the life of the EV battery beyond the case in which there is no V2G.

While EV batteries as a grid-balancing mechanism seems like an obvious solution, Tesla's J.B. Straubel cautions that it might not be as simple as we think.  Tesla's storage batteries, for example, although structurally similar to their EV batteries, are chemically different -- designed to stand up to more frequent cycling.

Quote
Not so fast, says Straubel. He agrees that using EVs to absorb some of the excess energy on the grid makes sense, but only under carefully controlled circumstances. “Using vehicles as a buffer for renewable energy, this is definitely something that’s coming, and I think there’s two ways to implement this. “The first is to use dynamic charging. This is essentially intelligently commanding when the vehicles absorb their energy from the grid to match up with when you have renewable energy available. This is something we can do very easily with just essentially software and controls. We don’t have to change any hardware and there’s no additional regulatory or certification work needed. It’s just essentially controlling the timing of when something otherwise would happen.

“If we want to actually send energy back from the car to the electricity grid, this gets much more complex. That’s something that I don’t see being a very economic or viable solution — perhaps ever, but certainly not in the near term. The additional wear and tear and degradation on your vehicle battery has a fairly high cost. Many of the people and small businesses looking at this today don’t take into account fully that degradation cost, and also the additional interconnection cost. Because if you interconnect your vehicle, you do have regulations that play a part. It has to interconnect in the same way that a solar system would on someone’s home or on a business, which have different standards so that they can protect line operators and people on the grid.”
On the subject of using an EV battery to store electricity, he says:
Quote
“So, my view is that we’ll see new batteries dedicated to that market, that also have slightly different characteristics. They should have higher cycle life. In an electric vehicle that has 200+ miles of range, you don’t need as many cycles as you do on a battery that’s designed to charge and discharge every single day on the grid. There’s perhaps a factor of about 4 or 5 difference in the cycle life — so that’s one aspect.”
http://gas2.org/2016/08/23/jb-straubel-talks-v2g-ev-battery-storage/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1927 on: August 27, 2017, 04:41:05 PM »
<snip>

I think Harvey strengthened to a Cat 4 before reaching the coast.  According to the map on the linked site it looks like at least one coastal wind farm has taken a direct hit (or only slightly off the center).

The linked site has a good description of how turbines and towers are designed to deal with large storms.

I am reminded of the person who, in all seriousness, suggested that since wind turbines extract energy from the wind, we should build a huge offshore wind farm for the purpose of minimizing hurricanes.  ::)

Tropical cyclones can release as much energy as 10,000 nuclear bombs....
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1928 on: August 27, 2017, 04:58:50 PM »
I agree with  Straubel re: V2G.  Implementing would mean that EVs would have to be redesigned so that they can feed power back through their plugs to the grid.  EVs would have to have a built in inverter so that battery DC electricity is changed to grid voltage AC.  And there would have to be some sort of smart metering (built into the EV?) that would collect the data needed for car owner reimbursement.

Using EVs as a dispatchable load makes great sense to me.  All that is needed for that is some sort of signaling to the car to start/stop charging.  And the ability to report the time/amount that the car charges.  That's probably doable with the hardware EVs already have with some software additions.

Probably makes a lot more sense for grids to buy up used EV battery packs and do their own storage.   

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 81
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1929 on: August 27, 2017, 06:27:01 PM »
EVs would have to have a built in inverter so that battery DC electricity is changed to grid voltage AC.  And there would have to be some sort of smart metering (built into the EV?) that would collect the data needed for car owner reimbursement.

Why should the car carry that around? Why not connected to socket EV is usually plugged into?

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1930 on: August 27, 2017, 06:46:45 PM »
EVs would have to have a built in inverter so that battery DC electricity is changed to grid voltage AC.  And there would have to be some sort of smart metering (built into the EV?) that would collect the data needed for car owner reimbursement.

Why should the car carry that around? Why not connected to socket EV is usually plugged into?

Probably cheaper to put an inverter in every EV rather than every outlet where an EV might plug in.

Inverters are getting a lot smaller and lighter.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 81
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1931 on: August 27, 2017, 07:04:55 PM »

Probably cheaper to put an inverter in every EV rather than every outlet where an EV might plug in.

Inverters are getting a lot smaller and lighter.

Maybe, but I am thinking if a family has 2 electric cars, one inverter and two sockets would be better than paying twice for the inverter. Even one electric car followed by owning another might not outlast such an inverter. Can't imagine many people having set up for charging EV in more than one location in their house. If out at restaurant/supermarket/wherever and need a charge to get home then I wouldn't want it discharging instead. So what would be the point in having that possibility other than at normal charging point for the car?

Any weight the car doesn't have to carry seems like better not to carry it to me.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1932 on: August 27, 2017, 07:22:35 PM »

Probably cheaper to put an inverter in every EV rather than every outlet where an EV might plug in.

Inverters are getting a lot smaller and lighter.

Maybe, but I am thinking if a family has 2 electric cars, one inverter and two sockets would be better than paying twice for the inverter. Even one electric car followed by owning another might not outlast such an inverter. Can't imagine many people having set up for charging EV in more than one location in their house. If out at restaurant/supermarket/wherever and need a charge to get home then I wouldn't want it discharging instead. So what would be the point in having that possibility other than at normal charging point for the car?

Any weight the car doesn't have to carry seems like better not to carry it to me.

Can't argue with your logic.  But the odds of power flowing back to the grid from EVs looks unlikely to me.  EVs are not likely to be used as long term storage, they have too little spare capacity.  Utilities are already installing batteries to do grid smoothing, the possible EV job.  Batteries are already becoming cheaper than using gas peakers so by the time there might be enough EVs available it could be that the smoothing role will have been filled.

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1933 on: August 30, 2017, 02:36:33 PM »
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/north/yukon-solar-power-1.4267199

Quote
Solar panel super power: Yukon leads with high per capita installations
Yukon leads Western Canada in terms of solar panel installations per capita, and may soon lead the country"

Granted, it's easier done when there aren't many capita:
Quote
In the two years since the government allowed residential and business solar panel users to sell surplus power to Yukon Energy, Andre said almost 110 units have been installed.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1934 on: August 31, 2017, 03:43:01 AM »
 How Pittsburgh Is Taking Climate Action
Quote
After the president’s “Pittsburgh, not Paris” statement, Pittsburgh Mayor Bill Peduto immediately fired back that his city would uphold its commitments to the goals of the Paris Agreement. In a fiery op-ed in the New York Times, co-written with Paris Mayor Ann Hidalgo, he noted that “investments in smart infrastructure, bike sharing programs, new mass transit options, and building efficiency” have put the city on track to meet its goal of slashing greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent by 2023. He also reaffirmed that Pittsburgh would be 100 percent powered by renewable energy by 2035.
https://www.climaterealityproject.org/blog/how-pittsburgh-taking-climate-action
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

etienne

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2045
    • View Profile
    • About energy
  • Liked: 309
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1935 on: August 31, 2017, 10:38:30 AM »

Probably cheaper to put an inverter in every EV rather than every outlet where an EV might plug in.

Inverters are getting a lot smaller and lighter.

Maybe, but I am thinking if a family has 2 electric cars, one inverter and two sockets would be better than paying twice for the inverter. Even one electric car followed by owning another might not outlast such an inverter. Can't imagine many people having set up for charging EV in more than one location in their house. If out at restaurant/supermarket/wherever and need a charge to get home then I wouldn't want it discharging instead. So what would be the point in having that possibility other than at normal charging point for the car?

Any weight the car doesn't have to carry seems like better not to carry it to me.

Can't argue with your logic.  But the odds of power flowing back to the grid from EVs looks unlikely to me.  EVs are not likely to be used as long term storage, they have too little spare capacity.  Utilities are already installing batteries to do grid smoothing, the possible EV job.  Batteries are already becoming cheaper than using gas peakers so by the time there might be enough EVs available it could be that the smoothing role will have been filled.

There is another issue regarding using EV batteries to balance the network. EV batteries should always be loaded in order to have the vehicle available, so you can load them faster or slower to balance the network, but you shouldn't take electricity away.

If you don't need all the power of the batteries to drive around, than it would be better to onload the batteries and leave them at home for network balancing. Batteries are too heavy to be driven around just for fun, much heavier than the inverter.

When using multifunction tools, you always loose energy. So we shouldn’t try to use cars as multifunction energy provider.

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1936 on: August 31, 2017, 03:12:43 PM »
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/08/florida-power-company-exchanging-nuclear-plans-for-solar-plans-cutting-rates/

Duke energy Florida is cancelling a $20bn plan to build a nuclear plant and grid upgrades to support it. They've spent less than a billion so far over the past decade (!) of the plan.

Instead it's investing $6bn on grid upgrades and a modest amount of solar panels and batteries.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1937 on: August 31, 2017, 04:03:10 PM »
Quote
If you don't need all the power of the batteries to drive around, than it would be better to onload the batteries and leave them at home for network balancing. Batteries are too heavy to be driven around just for fun, much heavier than the inverter.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that batteries be removed from cars and left hooked to the grid.  The idea is to keep as many EVs as possible plugged in as much as possible so that electricity can be pulled from the vehicle when needed.

Batteries are far too heavy to be moving in and out of EVs without some heavy duty equipment.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1938 on: August 31, 2017, 04:05:12 PM »
For New England Farmers Looking To Make Ends Meet, The Sun Provides A Harvest
Quote
Sullivan, like many New England farmers, had been struggling to make ends meet in recent years; a volatile market and slumping commodity prices have challenged many farmers in the region.

And one part of Sullivan's property – about 15 acres – had been pretty unusable. The soil was heavy and bad for crops, he says. He tried growing corn and hay, but with no success. Then a solar developer came along, offering him a lot of money to rent the land, put up solar panels, and sell that energy back into the grid. He says the opportunity was too good to pass up.

"The money that comes off that acreage exceeds anything else I could do out there," Sullivan says.
http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2017/08/24/545609319/for-new-england-farmers-looking-to-make-ends-meet-the-sun-provides-a-harvest
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1939 on: August 31, 2017, 04:17:33 PM »
Duke also canceled the Lee reactor that was to be built in South Carolina.  I think plans for that one were further along and more money had been spent.

Efficiency has spoken.  And end-user solar may be whispering.

My understanding is that the South Carolina Summer 2 and 3 reactors were abandoned not only because costs were soaring but because their electricity wasn't needed.  When the Summer reactors were planned and construction started the utility predicted that demand would keep growing like it had in the past.  They didn't see what was happening with more efficient light bulbs (CFLs at that time), the move from CRT to LED screens, refrigerators that use far less electricity.  They also didn't pay attention to the rapidly dropping prices of solar panels.

Normally utilities like to have about 15% 'reserve capacity'.  Capacity they can bring up if they lose a large plant or two.  Since demand growth stayed low Summer 2 and 3 would have increased reserve capacity to around 40%.  Just not needed.

Vogtle in Georgia has a similar problem.  Unneeded capacity.  Really high costs.  If they finish and bring these reactors online they will likely accelerate the rate of rooftop solar installation and cut their demand even more.  And that could make things very interesting.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1940 on: August 31, 2017, 04:43:03 PM »
Policymaker support key to offshore wind prospects in US
Quote
"Another 2016 DOE report updated the U.S. offshore wind technical resource potential to 2,058 GW, which is “7,203 TWh/year of net energy production,” DOE calculated. That is “approximately twice the electricity used in the U.S. in 2014,” DOE reported."
http://www.utilitydive.com/news/policymaker-support-key-to-offshore-wind-prospects-in-us/503612/

Electrek says:
"Showing [the article quoted above], really because of this quote from analyzing the article – Block Island in RI has been producing power at ~60% avg. CF over past 6 months. Perhaps, off-shore wind is the new baseload?  The article has a lot of great data on wind power also – but this is the highest wind capacity factory I’ve even seen. Is the east coast of the USA so windy? If so, that’s a gold mine."
https://electrek.co/2017/08/31/50680/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1941 on: August 31, 2017, 04:55:37 PM »
There's a wind farm in Hawaii that has a CF in the low 60% range.  Unique site, right on the edge of a high cliff along the ocean.

The DOE has identified about 200,000 square miles of usable land in the US where we could get 60% or better CFs if we use 140 meter hub heights and modern technology.  And there is a lot of resource in the SE where good wind is scarce at lower elevations.



Offshore we've got some great resources.  Especially along the Pacific Coast in Northern California.



This is a 50 meter hub height map.  It's fine for offshore because we don't need really high towers offshore. 

But take a look at how the onshore resources differ between the two maps.  At 50 meters there's just no future for wind in the SE quarter of the US.  Lots up higher.



AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19703
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2268
  • Likes Given: 286
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1942 on: August 31, 2017, 05:14:40 PM »
The linked reference discusses the challenges of storing renewable energy:

Ted Trainer (November 2017), "Some problems in storing renewable energy", Energy Policy
Volume 110, Pages 386–393, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.07.061

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517304925

Abstract: "Difficulties involved in some commonly advocated options for the storage of renewable electricity are discussed. As is generally recognised the most promising strategies involve biomass and pumped hydro storage, but these involve drawbacks that appear to be major limitations on the achievement of 100% renewable supply systems. Neglected aspects of the solar thermal storage solution are detailed, indicating that it is not likely to be able to make a significant contribution. Batteries, vehicle-to-grid, biomass and hydrogen based solutions also appear to have major drawbacks. Although other options not examined here might alter the outlook, the general impression arrived at is that the probability of achieving satisfactory storage provision enabling 100% renewable power supply are not promising. Provision of total energy supply from renewable sources would probably multiply the task by an order of magnitude."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1943 on: August 31, 2017, 05:36:22 PM »
The linked reference discusses the challenges of storing renewable energy:

Ted Trainer (November 2017), "Some problems in storing renewable energy", Energy Policy
Volume 110, Pages 386–393, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.07.061

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517304925

Abstract: "Difficulties involved in some commonly advocated options for the storage of renewable electricity are discussed. As is generally recognised the most promising strategies involve biomass and pumped hydro storage, but these involve drawbacks that appear to be major limitations on the achievement of 100% renewable supply systems. Neglected aspects of the solar thermal storage solution are detailed, indicating that it is not likely to be able to make a significant contribution. Batteries, vehicle-to-grid, biomass and hydrogen based solutions also appear to have major drawbacks. Although other options not examined here might alter the outlook, the general impression arrived at is that the probability of achieving satisfactory storage provision enabling 100% renewable power supply are not promising. Provision of total energy supply from renewable sources would probably multiply the task by an order of magnitude."

It's not helpful to post a link to information hidden behind a paywall without posting enough details so that readers have an opportunity to judge the quality of the arguments.

What, for example, are the limits on pump-up hydro?  Do the authors talk about the cost and difficulty of building new dams and ignore converting some of the thousands of existing dams we already have?

For example, just a few days ago San Diego put out a request for bids to turn the San Vicente reservoir into a pump-up hydro storage facility.

Furthermore, I've never heard anyone call biomass an energy storage technology.  It is not.  There's no way to pump electricity into a pile of wood chips and get it back later.  Biomass is fuel.

If this abstract gets a toehold then we're going to see anti-RE people posting it all over the place in and attempt to prove that we need to continue to mine coal and build nuclear reactors.

ghoti

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 767
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1944 on: August 31, 2017, 05:40:54 PM »
Note who the author is, where he works and what he advocates. Without access to the full article I have huge doubts there is any real data presented to back up the claims.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1945 on: August 31, 2017, 05:47:40 PM »
Ted Trainer's name didn't mean anything to me.  This is from the Wiki on him...

Quote
His practical energy has been thrown into Pigface Point, an alternative lifestyle educational site on a swampy meander of the St.George's River 20 km from Sydney, near East Hills/Voyager Point. Trainer lives there with his family, practising voluntary simplicity and the art of re-use. He lives partially in a barter and subsistence economy, and built a house and the grounds from recycled materials and manual labour.[1] His household uses 2% of average Australian electricity consumption and he rarely travels[2] Photos show the extent of the property, which was originally purchased by his father in 1940.[3]


A prolific author, Trainer has published widely[4] on global problems, sustainability issues, radical critiques of the economy, alternative social forms, and the transition to them. He has written numerous books and articles on these topics, listed blow.

His theory of social change is called "The Simpler Way".[5][6] He argues " A sustainable world order is not possible unless we move to much less production and consumption, and much less affluent lifestyles within a steady-state economic system."[7] In The Conserver Society he outlines what such a world would look like, based around intelligent and networked eco-villages providing healthy lifestyles, work and education with much-lowered net consumption.

His calculations of global energy demand, given in Trainer 2007, suggest any shift to renewable energy will have to be accompanied by a radical decrease in global demand, since renewables could not cope with expanding demand.[8][9]


ghoti

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 767
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1946 on: August 31, 2017, 05:52:33 PM »
A long career of saying renewables can't support the world economy. Effective storage solutions invalidate his career work. There might be just a little bias.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1947 on: August 31, 2017, 06:08:17 PM »
A long career of saying renewables can't support the world economy. Effective storage solutions invalidate his career work. There might be just a little bias.

You think?

rboyd

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1334
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 226
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1948 on: August 31, 2017, 10:43:08 PM »
Energy Policy is a peer reviewed journal and Ted Trainer is a thorough researcher. He has a habit of pointing out uncomfortable facts and the sheer complexity of doing things in the real world (as against computer simulations). He certainly does not deserve any ad hominem attacks. He is basically critiquing a paper from Lenzen et al (2016)  that simulates a low-carbon electricity supply for Australia (also behind a paywall - although you can request a full copy via researchgate).

His main issue, apart from identifying some over-optimistic assumptions on Solar CSP, is that the scale of storage increases non-linearly as renewables get close to 100%. Also, that there are extended periods of low wind/low sun, even on a regional basis, that would require most of supply to come from storage. It is the scale and unit cost of storage that he points to as the issue. Current battery storage capacities are still tiny combined to multiple days of electricity demand. That may change in the future, but it is not a done deal. Ted therefore proposes that we need to drive energy efficiency as well as increases in renewables.




ghoti

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 767
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #1949 on: August 31, 2017, 10:54:30 PM »
I guess you have access to the paper. Does it present data on energy storage costs and scaling costs? Even better does it have data demonstrating this often cited horror of multi-day regional lack of renewable energy sources covering entire grids?