Timothy Astin & folke_kelm,
Unfortunately, I do not have time to parse the questions of what is appropriate behavior for well qualified scientists like James Hansen & Bill McGuire, when writing in the non-peer reviewed literature about the possible risks associated with the "fat-tailed" pdf for climate change. Thus I will only briefly touch on the following extract from the 2012 Carbon Brief article, which confirms that at that time Bill McGuire was stating his opinion that sea level rise, SLR, by 2100 would be in the 1 to 2m range, while the high end IPCC AR4 SLR projection was on the order of 0.65 to 0.7m. Since 2012 the IPCC increased their SLR projections by about 50% to now have a high range of about 0.98m; however, the US NOAA Dec 2012 SLR guidance advises that design for a coastal power plant should use 2m of SLR by 2100. In this regards, it appears to me that Bill McGuire's opinion about possible anthropogenic driven SLR levels by 2100 were much more realistic than the AR4 scientists who choose (intentionally) to err on the side of least drama to the extent as to endanger the general public. It will be interesting to see how much AR6 increases its SLR rise projections above the AR5 projections.
Both of your posts seem to down play the significance of SLR on future tectonic activity; however, I assure you that 2m of SLR by 2100 is a massive weight redistribution around the world and will definitely impact entire tectonic plate action.
Furthermore, regarding the Nepal event; while it is true that it is currently not feasible to say whether any individual seismic event was or was not influence by anthropogenic behavior, the attached figure shows the GRACE satellite mass change observations from 2003 to 2010; which shows over 3cm of equivalent water height mass differences over the entire Indian Subcontinent in this timeframe alone (& I assure you that the indicated tend has accelerated since 2010), and Nepal is in-between the Northern Plains of India where the groundwater levels have been severely decreased due to extensive pumping (water mining), while some portions of the Tibet have received unusually high snowfall while other portions have experience unusually high de-glaciation. All of this change in water mass distribution around Nepal has a strong probability of being related to anthropogenic activity and by theory should have an impact on seismic activity in Nepal.
Extract from the 2012 Carbon Brief Article: "McGuire told us in an email:
"We are currently on a high-end emissions scenario track and prospects for getting off this any time soon look pretty bleak [...]. These scenarios are Met Office Hadley Centre scenarios that build in carbon feedbacks, and are - in my opinion - very realistic. In relation to sea level, the consensus now is that a 1 - 2m rise is most likely by 2100."
McGuire is also clearly coming from a particular viewpoint:
"The language used in scientific papers is always careful, but released from the constraints of peer-reviewed journals we are able to express our thoughts in a more personal manner - as James Hansen in the US has done so effectively. My personal opinion is that climate change will be catastrophic - even without any geological response."
Perhaps it's not that surprising that book authors will try and make their work sound exciting. But there are no end of newspapers willing to pounce on catastrophic visions of the future in order to perpetuate the 'it's an apocalypse/it isn't happening' see-saw that makes up the worst end of climate reporting.
McGuire is not shying away from discussing high-end scenarios, which is fair enough. But in our view he should make clear that this is what he is doing, and also more carefully communicate the uncertainty in his work. After all, it appears to be decidedly early days for this research."
While I do concur that most seismic activity is still natural in origin, and the influence of climate change is still on the "fat right-tail" end of the seismic hazard pdf; nevertheless, I believe that it is a mistake to think that society is safe from the potential impacts of abrupt climate change.