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Author Topic: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD  (Read 284859 times)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1000 on: July 29, 2017, 01:35:28 AM »
"I've never seen anything like this in my whole life," says an 81-year-old tomato farmer, as water runs out.

In Italy's parched Po River valley, climate change threatens the future of agriculture
http://news.trust.org/item/20170728003907-902ji
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Archimid

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1001 on: July 30, 2017, 03:33:01 AM »
That's ok, just turn on all the tractors, cars, trucks and any vehicle they can spare and point their exhaust towards the fields. Since CO2 is plant food, the tomatoes won't need water. Or something like that. I can't comprehend it.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1002 on: August 01, 2017, 07:22:59 PM »
The global food system can only take so much climate change induced stress, before humans start dying in ever-increasing numbers:

Title: "Suicides of nearly 60,000 Indian farmers linked to climate change, study claims"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/31/suicides-of-nearly-60000-indian-farmers-linked-to-climate-change-study-claims

Extract: "Rising temperatures and the resultant stress on India’s agricultural sector may have contributed to increase in suicides over the past 30 years, research shows"
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1003 on: August 04, 2017, 07:18:38 PM »
The linked reference projects increasing variability of crop yield with continued global warming, which will likely create political tension between the haves and have nots:

Ostberg, S., Schewe, J., Childers, K., and Frieler, K.: Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-69, in review, 2017.

https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-69/

Abstract: "An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets, as well as for the economic evaluation of climate change impacts e.g. in economic models such as Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that internally only use global mean temperature change as indicator of climate change. There is already a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change (∆GMT). It is less clear to what extent more complex, biological or physiological impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of ∆GMT; even though such impacts may often be more directly relevant for human livelihoods than changes in the physical climate. Here we show that crop yield projections can indeed be described in terms of ∆GMT to a large extent, allowing for a fast interpolation of crop yield changes to emission scenarios not originally covered by climate and crop model projections. We use an ensemble of global gridded crop model simulations for the four major staple crops to show that the scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of ∆GMT. In contrast, the variance is dominated by the spread across crop models. Varying CO2 concentrations are shown to explain only a minor component of the remaining crop yield variability at different levels of global warming. In addition, we show that the variability of crop yields is expected to increase with increasing warming in many world regions. We provide, for each crop model and climate model, patterns of mean yield changes that allow for a simplified description of yield changes under arbitrary pathways of global mean temperature and CO2 changes, without the need for additional climate and crop model simulations."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1004 on: August 05, 2017, 09:06:21 PM »
This drought is an anomaly, a “flash drought.” It essentially came from nowhere. It didn’t exist just three months ago.

‘Flash drought’ could devastate half the High Plains wheat harvest
An intense drought has quickly gripped much of the Dakotas and parts of Montana this summer, catching farmers and ranchers off-guard. The multi-agency U.S. Drought Monitor recently upgraded the drought to “exceptional,” its highest severity level, matching the intensity of the California drought at its peak.

The Associated Press says the dry conditions are “laying waste to crops and searing pasture and hay land” in America’s new wheat belt, with some longtime farmers and ranchers calling it the worst of their lifetimes. Unfortunately, this kind of came-out-of-nowhere drought could become a lot less rare in the future.

“It’s devastating,” says Tanja Fransen, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s office in Glasgow, Montana. Just six years removed from 2011, one of the region’s wettest years on record, eastern Montana is now enduring one of its driest.

“We’re at the bottom of the barrel,” Fransen says. “For many areas, it’s the worst we’ve seen in 100 years.”

Across the state, 17 other large fires are also spreading. “We haven’t even hit our normal peak fire season yet”….
http://grist.org/food/flash-drought-could-devastate-half-the-high-plains-wheat-harvest/amp/
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sidd

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1005 on: August 06, 2017, 09:05:59 AM »
I don't know if this is the right thread, but I think we ought to include the role of global cartels in this thread. A small number of companies own the global seed, fertilizer and food chain. Their exposure to climate change risk is enormous, and i see no sign they are insuring against that risk. For a laymans view :

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/jun/02/abcd-food-giants-dominate-trade

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« Reply #1006 on: August 06, 2017, 05:55:43 PM »
If Everyone Ate Beans Instead of Beef
With one dietary change, the U.S. could almost meet greenhouse-gas emission goals.
“I think there’s genuinely a lack of awareness about how much impact this sort of change can have,” Harwatt told me. There have been analyses in the past about the environmental impacts of veganism and vegetariansim, but this study is novel for the idea that a person’s dedication to the cause doesn’t have to be complete in order to matter. A relatively small, single-food substitution could be the most powerful change a person makes in terms of their lifetime environmental impact—more so than downsizing one’s car, or being vigilant about turning off light bulbs, and certainly more than quitting showering.

To understand why the climate impact of beef alone is so large, note that the image at the top of this story is a sea of soybeans in a silo in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest. The beans belong to a feed lot that holds 38,000 cattle, the growth and fattening of which means dispensing 900 metric tons of feed every day. Which is to say that these beans will be eaten by cows, and the cows will convert the beans to meat, and the humans will eat the meat. In the process, the cows will emit much greenhouse gas, and they will consume far more calories in beans than they will yield in meat, meaning far more clearcutting of forests to farm cattle feed than would be necessary if the beans above were simply eaten by people....
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/08/if-everyone-ate-beans-instead-of-beef/535536/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.