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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #800 on: October 02, 2015, 10:59:30 PM »
Winds at altitude (850 hPa), circling clockwise around the northern ridge over Canada, counter-clockwise around the southern trough with Hurricane Joaquin.  Like a firehose directed at the eastern U.S., pumping in warm, moist air from the ocean.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2015, 11:12:25 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #801 on: October 03, 2015, 03:03:12 PM »
Looks like South Carolina, particularly the Charleston area, will be the hardest hit by this system -- which is not ending soon.

Charleston police: No traffic allowed onto peninsula until flooding recedes
http://www.abcnews4.com/story/30130692/roads-closed-due-to-flooding

Predicted rainfall amounts, Saturday through Tuesday morning.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #802 on: October 03, 2015, 04:54:11 PM »
The weather model debate continues.

Some Perspective On European Vs American Weather Models After Hurricane Joaquin
http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2015/10/03/european-model-vs-american-model-post-joaquin-debate-likely-but-some-perspective/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #803 on: October 03, 2015, 06:16:19 PM »
Quote
@afreedma: W/ hvy rain + PM high tide, flooding in Charleston, SC is worsening "DANGEROUS AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING" situation unfolding, per NWS.

https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/650341251074670592

Quote
@UWCIMSS: #GOES water vapor reveals Rex Block conveyor belt of moisture from #Joaquin to flooding rains up the U.S. east coast http://t.co/L9NJvwaYaW

https://twitter.com/uwcimss/status/650286797679915008
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #804 on: October 03, 2015, 06:27:26 PM »
Quote
Depending on where the 15-inch plus amounts fall, it's quite possible that four to five months' worth of rain will fall in the Carolinas in just 48 hours.
Good discussion of the atmospheric elements involved with this storm:
http://mashable.com/2015/10/02/thousand-year-rains-carolinas-flood/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #805 on: October 04, 2015, 03:40:09 AM »
Historic Rainfall Pummels the Carolinas and Floods Charleston
Quote
...this is an exceptionally rare meteorological situation, and one the National Weather Service seems unusually concerned about. On Saturday, the NWS warned that “catastrophic flash flooding” was possible in South Carolina until at least Sunday evening with “isolated areas reaching the 1000 year recurrence interval” in terms of the statistical (un-)likelihood of the torrential rainfall.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/03/carolinas_and_charleston_flooded_with_rain_from_hurricane_joaquin.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #806 on: October 04, 2015, 01:34:52 PM »
France: two months of rainfall in two hours.
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ANTIBES, France - Flash flooding around the French Riviera has killed at least 16 people, including some trapped in cars, a campsite and a retirement home, the president said. Torrents of muddy water also inundated buildings, roads and railway tracks, disrupting car and train traffic along the Mediterranean coast.

Helicopters patrolled the area and 27,000 homes were without electricity Sunday after the Brague River overflowed its banks and fierce thunderstorms poured more than 6.7 inches of rain on the Cannes region in two hours Saturday night. That is the equivalent of two months of rainfall for the region, local radio France Bleu-Azur reported
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/flash-flooding-deadly-french-riviera/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #807 on: October 04, 2015, 02:08:17 PM »
The insane amounts of rainfall onto the souteast U.S. coast (South Carolina) continues today.

Image from WeatherUnderground's Storm app.  Strong individual storm cells are labeled with their projected path over the next hour.  Green outlined/shaded counties have flood watches/warnings.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #808 on: October 04, 2015, 03:56:59 PM »
Quote
@anthonywx: Just incredible to watch this plume of moisture aim at South Carolina. Extremely unusual atmospheric setup. [satellite animation:] http://t.co/d8l8NqLnt9

https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/650665529254936576
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #809 on: October 04, 2015, 06:05:02 PM »
Unimaginable conditions today in South Carolina.  And it's still raining.
Quote
@weatherchannel: Columbia, SC MT @SCEMD Partially submerged vehicle in the middle of I-77 at Decker Blvd. http://t.co/wo8iMJdqJv http://t.co/cgcv0hngl7

@Chaddiwack: Dam collapse at Semmes Lake on Fort Jackson @VonGaskin @TimMillerSC http://t.co/brFsJBfgJh

Town flooding:
@LevinsReports: A harrowing sight that we've never seen, and hope to never see again. #SCFlood @WLTX [video:] http://t.co/VApT1TONBW

@4cast4you: Coast Guard Charleston is being called into help for rescues over land. Wow... https://t.co/utn4qbY3MB

@4cast4you: City of Columbia has "two hundred [high water] rescues pending", per @wis10.

River gauges being swept way:
@Wxmanms1: Here's the note NWS CAE posted on their FB page about the gage issues in their area. #SCFlood http://t.co/4Yb545DdLV

@peakwx: Incredible... mind-boggling, indeed. Reading comments from fellow #CoCoRaHS volunteers in SC.  #SEFlood http://t.co/30ufBn45To

@EricHolthaus: To recap, officials are advising every single person in state of South Carolina to stay home today. It's that bad.
 http://t.co/bpV4PIewtb
Edit: Peak rain for this event already surpasses Hurricane Floyd, and Frances
Quote
@wxjerdman: Peak rain (24.23" near Charleston) > peaks from Floyd (24.06") & Frances (23.57"). {Maps: David Roth/WPC} #serain http://t.co/B94FCp9T9x

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/650660532052103168
« Last Edit: October 04, 2015, 07:21:39 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #810 on: October 04, 2015, 06:14:53 PM »
Wind at 850 hPa (about 5,000 feet; 1,500 m) now is blasting straight onto the US east coast.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #811 on: October 04, 2015, 07:58:22 PM »
By the way...

Quote
The incredible moisture flow streaming toward South Carolina from the Atlantic Ocean is being enhanced by Hurricane Joaquin, which continued to strengthen on Saturday and is now the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic this far north this late in the year, and one of the strongest ever during an El Niño, which typically makes Atlantic hurricanes weaker.

Though Joaquin is headed out to sea, away from the U.S. coastline, the close juxtaposition of two phenomena—a strong Canadian high pressure system and a separate low pressure center over Alabama—is diverting a conveyor belt of heavy rain from the hurricane, and a pronounced kink in the jet stream is strengthening the rain even further.

As I described Friday, this is an exceptionally rare meteorological situation, and one the National Weather Service seems unusually concerned about. On Saturday, the NWS warned that “catastrophic flash flooding” was possible in South Carolina until at least Sunday evening with “isolated areas reaching the 1000 year recurrence interval” in terms of the statistical (un-)likelihood of the torrential rainfall.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/03/carolinas_and_charleston_flooded_with_rain_from_hurricane_joaquin.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #812 on: October 05, 2015, 07:15:08 PM »
South Carolina flooding is the type of event climate scientists have warned about for years
Quote
Trenberth... cited the ongoing strong El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, which has helped drive global ocean temperatures to their highest temperature on record, as a possible factor behind this storm system.

"El Niño means all action is in [the] Pacific," which suppresses tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic. "This means build up of heat that waits for an opportunity to escape in some sense."
http://mashable.com/2015/10/05/south-carolina-floods-global-warming/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #813 on: October 06, 2015, 03:02:12 AM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #814 on: October 06, 2015, 03:06:33 AM »
Weather records were broken across Australia as the temperature reached 38 degrees in some parts of the country.
Bushfires burned in all states in an early start to the season with total fire bans declared in some areas because of the conditions.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/oct/05/records-broken-as-temperatures-soar-up-to-38-degrees-across-australia
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silkman

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #815 on: October 06, 2015, 09:34:26 AM »
The combination of El Niño and the annual rain forest burning in Sumatra has turned Singapore into a Smog Zone for most of the past month.

Levels of PM 2.5 have been persistently high. Life for my three grandchildren out there is getting increasingly difficult with schools closed on a regular basis and there's little sign of an end in sight.

The highlight of the weekend for my family was the opportunity to go out for a while without "smog prep" as the Air Quality Index dropped into the Amber zone. It's back to "unhealthy" right now.

The Island needs the usual evening thunderstorm on a regular basis right now but it seems El Niño is effectively putting a lid on that.

http://aqicn.org/city/singapore/central/




Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #816 on: October 06, 2015, 01:26:35 PM »
Aftermath and review of the South Carolina flooding, including potential dam failures.
Article with embedded videos and tweets.

Carolinas Flooding Danger Remains as Historic Rainfall Passes
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/carolinas-flooding-danger-remains-historic-rainfall-passes-n439116
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #817 on: October 07, 2015, 01:30:01 AM »
The combination of El Niño and the annual rain forest burning in Sumatra has turned Singapore into a Smog Zone for most of the past month.

Indonesia Says Tough to Set Haze Deadline With Fires, Weather
Quote
President Joko Widodo’s recent trip to Sumatra island for a progress check was cut short as the smoke was so thick his plane couldn’t land, forcing him back to the capital.

Exacerbated by dry conditions from El Nino, the haze has blown across Southeast Asia, blanketing Singapore, parts of Indonesia and Malaysia in a smog that has caused these areas to close schools and suspend outdoor events. In parts of Indonesia, people were forced to flee their homes.

“One challenge is that farmers are still burning,” Rampangilei said. “We all know that burning is cheap and makes the soil more fertile.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-06/indonesia-says-tough-to-set-haze-deadline-with-fires-weather
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solartim27

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #818 on: October 07, 2015, 09:11:34 PM »
South Carolina flooding is the type of event climate scientists have warned about for years

And state government officials have been ignoring, no, this is worse than ignoring.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/26/1640291/suppressed-south-carolina-climate-change-report-warns-of-big-impacts/
FNORD

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #819 on: October 09, 2015, 12:43:02 AM »
Social Media Roasts Flooded South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley for Climate Change Denial
https://www.inverse.com/article/6663-social-media-roasts-flooded-s-c-gov-nikki-haley-for-climate-change-denial
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #820 on: October 09, 2015, 02:12:48 AM »
Texas Rain Floods Roads, Causes Rock Slide
Quote
A slow-moving storm system has been plaguing the Southwest and southern High Plains with drenching rain and thunderstorms for several days now. The heavy rain was particularly problematic on Thursday in parts of Texas.
...
The area is not regularly accustomed to heavy rain this time of the year. Several reporting stations in southwest Texas were already running at 500 to 1000 percent to normal rainfall for the month.
http://www.weather.com/news/weather/news/texas-rain-flooding-rockslide
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #821 on: October 09, 2015, 02:28:06 AM »
(Remnants of) Hurricane Oho bringing heavy rain and winds on an odd track to northwest coast.
Quote
On its current path, Oho is taking a peculiar track to the northeast. Although tropical systems do, on occasion, move to the northeast in the central Pacific, since 1949, no late season (October or later) system has formed south of Hawaii and moved to the northeast.

Furthermore, no hurricanes have ventured into the region off Northwest Coast of the U.S., extending west several hundred miles. However, prior to the advent of weather satellites, a weakening hurricane did strike southern California as a strong tropical storm in 1939.
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-oho-hurricane-northwest-british-columbia
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pikaia

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #822 on: October 11, 2015, 11:41:37 AM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #823 on: October 11, 2015, 08:25:05 PM »
Quote
Lewis and King looked at how often Australia set hot and cold temperature records from the year 1910 through 2014. They only considered temperature records across the country as a whole and in each of its states or territories (except Tasmania), and only examined monthly, seasonal and annual records. Thus, the study did not examine daily records or records in individual locations. (This was in part to avoid problems introduced by the fact that over time, the number of individual temperature recording stations changes.)

...Hot records started to happen much more frequently than cold records — and from 2000 to 2014, outnumbered them by more than 12 to 1.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/09/the-simple-statistic-that-perfectly-captures-what-climate-change-means/
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silkman

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #824 on: October 18, 2015, 08:47:50 AM »
Typhoon Koppu (Lando) is starting to batter the Philippines. Forecasters are saying that the slow moving nature of the Category 4 storm will bring unbelievable amounts of rain.

It looks like the start of yet another difficult time for this nation that sits in the eye of the El Niño fuelled storm track.



http://atimes.com/2015/10/typhoon-koppu-hits-philippines-worst-scenario-set-to-unfold/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #825 on: October 23, 2015, 12:11:03 PM »
BREAKING  NEWS  OCT 23 2015, 6:06 AM ET
Hurricane Patricia: Strongest Storm Ever Measured On The Planet -- to Hit Mexico

Quote
Hurricane Patricia became the strongest storm ever measured on the planet early Friday with experts warning it could trigger 39-foot waves along Mexico's coast and "life-threatening" flash flooding.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/hurricane-patricia-strongest-storm-ever-measured-hit-mexico-n449731
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #826 on: October 23, 2015, 01:09:03 PM »
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"Patricia is a storm without precedent. We are living history today, but nobody will live it more than Mexico. While we try to wrap our minds around what the atmosphere did last night, it’s important to remember that there are people in the path of this storm. This is not some abstract homework assignment assigned by some madman meteorology professor. This is a real storm that is quickly approaching land and soon threatens to create unimaginable amounts of devastation in any communities caught directly in the path of Patricia’s eye."
http://thevane.gawker.com/at-200-mph-hurricane-patricia-is-now-the-strongest-tro-1738224692
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citrine

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #827 on: October 23, 2015, 07:24:17 PM »
Thanks for the links on Patricia, Sigmetnow.

These lines from the second article jumped out at me:

"This historic feat took everyone by surprise. No weather models predicted this, and just a few short days ago, even the most experienced meteorologist would have laughed if you mentioned the possibility."
near Raleigh, North Carolina / USDA Zone 7b

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #828 on: October 23, 2015, 07:45:07 PM »
Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson
Quote
Stunning, historic, mind-boggling, and catastrophic: that sums up Hurricane Patricia, which intensified to an incredible-strength Category 5 storm with 200 mph winds overnight. At 2:46 am EDT October 23, 2015 an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured a central pressure of 880 mb in Patricia, making it the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere. The aircraft measured surface winds of 200 mph, which are the highest reliably-measured surface winds on record for a tropical cyclone, anywhere on the Earth.
...
Patricia's central pressure dropped an astonishing 100 mb in 24 hours, making it the fastest-intensifying hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3165&cm_ven=tw-jm
« Last Edit: October 23, 2015, 07:51:22 PM by Sigmetnow »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #829 on: October 23, 2015, 11:10:53 PM »
Here is an Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Map of Hurricane Patricia on Oct 23 2015 just before landfall:

Edit: the second Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Map image shows Patricia at landfall
« Last Edit: October 24, 2015, 12:26:48 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #830 on: October 24, 2015, 01:36:14 AM »
It’s Undeniable: Climate Change Made Hurricane Patricia Worse
Quote
Meteorologically, there are at least four reasons why global warming could have contributed to Patricia’s ferocity: El Niño, exceptionally warm ocean temperatures, increased atmospheric humidity, and sea level rise.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/23/hurricane_patricia_was_made_worse_by_climate_change.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #831 on: October 24, 2015, 01:54:13 AM »
Quote
@VaisalaGroup: #Patricia is among the few storms that have #lightning in a tight circle in the eyewall. [graphics:] https://t.co/mMpfrhVbKK

https://twitter.com/vaisalagroup/status/657693441686638592 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #832 on: October 24, 2015, 02:02:28 AM »
The Science of Forecasting Patricia and What to Expect From the Historic Storm
Quote
While most of the models predicted strengthening, they all underestimated how quickly Patricia would strengthen and how strong the wind speeds would become. The NHC explicitly forecast rapid intensification in their advisory at 11 p.m. EDT on Wednesday night and in subsequent advisories yesterday, noting the very favorable environment (low vertical wind shear, very humid air, very warm sea surface temperatures and high upper ocean heat content). The sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are currently significantly warmer than average because of the strong El Niño event that is occurring. However, it is very challenging to forecast rapid intensification, and indeed, the explosive strengthening of Patricia was nearly unprecedented in the observed record.
http://wxshift.com/news/blog/the-science-of-forecasting-patricia
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #833 on: October 24, 2015, 12:55:10 PM »
PATRICIA: A GLOBAL VIEW
Record-setting hurricane's connections are far-reaching
https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/17573/patricia-global-view
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #834 on: October 24, 2015, 01:03:02 PM »
It is just as the climate scientists foretold.... :o

Texas in 2015 has gone from drought, to floods in May, back to drought, and now floods again.
Quote
Texas has gone through a cycle of precipitation extremes in 2015.

At the start of this year, the state was in a multi-year drought that ramped up in 2011.

A wetter pattern began to take shape in the spring. It was punctuated by a succession of heavy rain events in May, which wiped out the drought in a matter of weeks and sent rivers over their banks and reservoirs over capacity in Texas, Oklahoma and other nearby states.  To add insult to injury, Tropical Storm Bill and its remnant spread another round of heavy rain through the waterlogged region in mid-June.

Just as quickly as that drought faded, it has returned to parts of Texas and surrounding states due to a hot and dry summer. According to the Oct. 20 Drought Monitor analysis, roughly 50 percent of the Lone Star State was officially in drought. For the first time since May 5, exceptional drought, the worst drought category, was recorded in a small part of Texas earlier in October.

The rain through this weekend is needed to help the relatively rapidly-developing flash drought, which developed in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley from mid-summer on. However, the rains may be too much of a good thing in these areas and they could trigger flash flooding.
Texas Flood Threat: 6 Things You Should Know
http://www.weather.com/news/news/southern-plains-flood-threat-texas-6-things-to-know
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #835 on: October 27, 2015, 05:13:44 PM »
While Hurricane Patricia did not create as much damage as initially fears (for reasons including: i. it spun-up so fast it did not have time to build a large storm surge, ii. its eyewall was small and missed the most populated areas and iii. the evacuation plan worked relatively well) thus letting policy makers off the hook (for now); in my opinion it is still a clear example of the increasingly frequent strong storms that James Hansen has repeatedly warned about, as for example per the linked article it might have been classified as a Cat 7 event if the scale extended that far:

http://www.carbonbrief.org/hurricane-patricia-the-role-of-el-nino-climate-change-and-good-fortune/

Extract: "At her peak, Patricia’s winds reached an unprecedented 200mph. This is a long way above the threshold of 156mph that classifies a hurricane as Category 5 – the highest possible rating. Some scientists were saying Patricia would have been Category 7, if the scale extended that far.
Low air pressure in the core – a measure of storm strength – bottomed out at 879 millibars, making Patricia, officially, the most powerful hurricane ever measured in the western hemisphere."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #836 on: October 28, 2015, 06:44:59 PM »
The Pacific Ocean is certainly not peaceful, these days.

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@EricHolthaus: Watch a textbook, photogenic case of bombogenesis… in two storms at exactly the same time!
https://t.co/oYcD0imeMO https://t.co/ZYtZvSY980

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/659388177711415296

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/27/bombogenesis_as_two_photogenic_storms_strengthen_in_the_pacific.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #837 on: October 29, 2015, 11:42:55 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #838 on: October 29, 2015, 11:50:28 PM »
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@EricHolthaus: Hand analysis in Oman this week as #Chapala nears. Every meteorologist knows how to do this! https://t.co/pSitYv7eXl

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/659856113416847360 
 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #840 on: October 31, 2015, 12:45:41 AM »
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@weatherchannel: Preliminary daily rainfall total of 14.53 inches at Austin-Bergstrom, #Texas is more than 15X higher than the previous record (0.96"/1992)

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/660238882374590465

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Blanco River at Wimberley, TX forecast to crest above 31ft. Since 1920s gauge has topped 30ft twice: May 1929 & 2015

https://twitter.com/stevebowenwx/status/660136757950853120
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #841 on: October 31, 2015, 03:01:00 AM »
Texas: the rain continues.  To be clear, this is a different system than last weekend with the remnants of Hurricane Patricia.  And, another heavy rain event is forecast for the end of next week!

Deadly Floods, Possible Tornadoes Strike Texas as Storm Sweeps Through
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/possible-tornadoes-damage-buildings-across-south-texas-officials-n454441
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #842 on: October 31, 2015, 09:23:43 AM »
The linked article indicates that Atacama Desert in Chile is experiencing its greatest bloom of flowers ever reported due to this years El Nino:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2015/1030/Why-are-lush-carpets-of-flowers-thriving-in-the-driest-place-on-earth
« Last Edit: October 31, 2015, 04:36:13 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #843 on: October 31, 2015, 04:35:15 PM »
The following is an update on how rapidly Tropical Cyclone Chapala is intensifying (it is now a Cat 4 event and the second strongest such storm on record for the Arabian Sea).  The first image shows the record SST in the Arabian Sea, the second image shows the storm track indicating likely flooding in Yemen & Oman; and the third image shows that the spin-up of this intense storm is coincident with a very strong MJO in the same area:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/2nd-strongest-storm-in-arabian-sea-history-extraordinary-chapala-hits

Extract: "Tropical Cyclone Chapala took advantage of the warmest waters ever recorded in the Arabian Sea at this time of year to put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification overnight. Chapala topped out for the time being as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds (1-minute average) at 2 am EDT Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #844 on: November 02, 2015, 12:56:11 AM »
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@EricHolthaus: Here's the strange, current view of Earth right now:
Cyclone #Chapala bearing down on Yemen.
https://t.co/F9mXWqmhjy https://t.co/3TvfOwOawU

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/660905805324005376
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #845 on: November 02, 2015, 05:27:44 PM »
The most recent Robert Scribbler article focuses on Cyclone Chapala, and indicates just how extreme of a weather event that it is (fueled by atypically warm ocean surface waters that are likely related to climate change).  The attached image shows that the latest storm track shows Chapala hitting Yemen today:

http://robertscribbler.com/

Extract: "After a rapid bombification on Friday, Cyclone Chapala became the most intense storm on record to form so far south in the Indian Ocean. Like Patricia, this storm gathered strength in waters that were much hotter than normal (+1 to +2 C above average for the region). Like Patricia, the storm rapidly intensified in a single 24 hour period — gaining 90 mph of wind intensity in just one day. And like the 5 billion dollar weather event that was Patricia, Chapala threatens severe damage along its likely land-falling path. A hothouse storm for a hothouse world that in 2015 has seen the previous record for the rate of formation of the most intense tropical cyclones shattered by five storms so far this year. The previous record, set in 2004 was for 18 such storms over a one year period. Now, the new record is 23 and counting.
Chapala is expected to track west-by-northwest, weakening to a category 1 or 2 storm just before making landfall in Yemen on Monday. At that point the storm is predicted to dump as much as 12 to 16 inches of rain over parts of Yemen. If this happens as current weather models predict, parts of Yemen which typically receive less than 2 inches of rain per year may see as much as 8 years or more worth of rain fall over the course of a day or two."
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― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #846 on: November 02, 2015, 06:15:49 PM »
An Ice Flash Flood in Saudi Arabia? I honestly thought it was some sort of April 1 joke and the video a hoax. Youtube had a couple of other/different videos so seems genuine.
[url]https://www.rt.com/news/320455-ice-flood-saudi-arabia/[url]

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #847 on: November 02, 2015, 10:19:39 PM »
An Ice Flash Flood in Saudi Arabia? I honestly thought it was some sort of April 1 joke and the video a hoax. Youtube had a couple of other/different videos so seems genuine.
https://www.rt.com/news/320455-ice-flood-saudi-arabia/

The ice is massive amounts of hail, created by water freezing at altitude inside strong updrafts in intense rainstorms.  This is occasionally seen in western U.S. states during summer heat, too.

Here's an example in Colorado last August.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/08/11/video-hail-infused-storm-floods-colorado-towns-sweeps-away-cars/
« Last Edit: November 02, 2015, 10:25:27 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #849 on: November 03, 2015, 06:46:11 PM »
Cyclone Chapala dumps years' worth of rain in Yemen, causing extensive damage.
Article and videos.
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The first hurricane ever to hit Yemen in recorded history arrived early Tuesday morning when Tropical Cyclone Chapala hit the city of Mukallah, bringing with it unprecedented flooding in an area already suffering from a war-related humanitarian crisis.

The storm may have already dumped a decades' worth of rainfall in some parts of this arid nation.

http://mashable.com/2015/11/03/cyclone-chapala-yemen/
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