A couple of points on the China drop:
The solid drop, if confirmed, is indeed good news. It shows that, at the very least, the Chinese are taking the air pollution problem seriously. Since relocation of coal-fired power generation away from the major population centers will naturally include some supplanting with lower/no carbon generation and higher-efficiency plants, it represents at least a temporary reprieve from the massive increases in CO2 emissions of the last decade.
The impact of weather on cooling and heating needs was substantially less in 2014 than in the previous year (and likely less than average). This had a strong net negative effect on power demand, and thus coal (since most generation is still coal-fired at this point). Also, hydropower had a very good year, with the surpluses helping supplant fossil generation.
Some coal is being diverted to CTG and CTL and this is expected to increase, despite lower oil prices, since coal prices have dropped precipitously in tow.
So, to recap, there's likely a bit more going on than meets the eye:
1) Longer-term downward pressure due to air pollution.
2) Re-location of generation leading to higher efficiency plants and some substitution.
3) Strong decrease in heating and cooling degree days over the previous few years.
4) Strong hydropower year (related to weather and new construction).
5) CTL and CTG projects will exert upward pressure on emissions over the longer term.
Points 3 and 4 are temporary and will turn around. Points 1 and 2 will likely keep the pressure on, at least until the pollution problem starts to abate. Point 5 will unfortunately offset some of the gains made.
We really need more than one data year point to declare victory. It's a bit early to be uncorking the champagne on this one yet.
