his graph seems (to me at least) to indicate that simple technological fixes (including physical geoengineering) will not sufficiently address our collective (worldwide) overshoot problem by that time to prevent a worldwide socio-economic collapse by 2060
Please pay attention to the technological shift that is now firmly underway.
Do not mislead yourself by putting a ruler on the line of history and drawing the future as an extension of the past.
Ouch!
I'm not convinced that we have until 2060, nor that the technological shift that is now underway is enough to save society from collapse.
If nukes start flying everything is off the table, so we have to start with the belief that those in power, worldwide, are sane. - this belief is sometimes difficult to maintain -
Assuming they can keep their collective fingers off the buttons, we then need to believe that at least the worlds largest nations can cooperate together in the fight against Global Warming. - recent developments in Washington make this an increasingly unlikely proposition -
Societies in the past have collapsed when outside forces or internal turmoil simply tore a nation apart. Do we want the recent events in Ukraine, the bloodbath in France, or Americas own civil war as examples. In today's interconnected world, with last minute inventorying, the sudden loss of any of the major players to internal conflict
could bring down the whole house of cards.
We haven't even considered the floods of refugees, the floods that Hansen wrote of, or the floods of litigation that sunken cities will create. These will all tear at the very fabric of society.
Will India wait until the 50's have past to begin machine gunning drowning Bangladeshis? Will our own BOE await the 60's? A good storm next year could do to Miami what Katrina did for New Orleans, will Trump's response pull the country together, or will Pence's response be an improvement?
Evs are good, but will they become ubiquitous before road maintenance ends.
Solar and windfarms are good, but will the grid still be maintained when the last smoke belching coal plant is mothballed?
Gigafactories spewing out high tech batteries are wonderful, but will trade with China allow lithium into our market?
I don't know the answer to these questions, and neither does anyone else. I do know that if any of these scenarios, or a myriad of others play out, it could be over well before the 2060 baby seizes old 2059's scythe.
Tell the children to sleep peacefully.
Terry