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Author Topic: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation  (Read 1974474 times)

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2550 on: August 16, 2016, 05:30:40 PM »
The data from Uni Hamburg has been updated. 2016 seems to be closer to 2015 (but still ahead) than to 2012.

Update 20160815.

Extent: -36.4 (-172k vs 2015, -692k vs 2014, -610k vs 2013, +618k vs 2012)
Area: -37.7 (-132k vs 2015, -925k vs 2014, -655k vs 2013, +322k vs 2012)
 
Attached an animation of the arctic basin.

JimboOmega

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2551 on: August 16, 2016, 06:21:02 PM »
The data from Uni Hamburg has been updated. 2016 seems to be closer to 2015 (but still ahead) than to 2012.

Update 20160815.

Extent: -36.4 (-172k vs 2015, -692k vs 2014, -610k vs 2013, +618k vs 2012)
Area: -37.7 (-132k vs 2015, -925k vs 2014, -655k vs 2013, +322k vs 2012)
 
Attached an animation of the arctic basin.

Are those deltas for the last few days (when there was no data), or just the most recent?

jdallen

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2552 on: August 16, 2016, 06:21:42 PM »
From that animation, you can see the disturbing impacts of this cyclone on the Atlantic side. Ice is moving towards the Barents between Svalbard and Franz Josef and it is melting as it hits the warm waters. Also looks like export through the Fram just got going. No ice moving this direction will last  long.
This, is about the worst possible scenario at this time for the ice that I could have imagined. 

The pack is being shoved into the Atlantic front just as we feared, and being ground to nothing as it does.  The Fram is so hot ice scarcely survives passing through the gap. 

The flash melt in the Laptev is astounding.

The storm has intensified past predictions and shows every sign of continuing unabated, drawing more and more heat from depth, and tearing what's left of the Pacific side of the pack to tatters.

I still don't think we'll pass 2012, but I'll be very surprised if we don't beat 2007 and 2011 for extent and area.
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Iceismylife

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2553 on: August 16, 2016, 06:31:52 PM »
I think the storm will surprise us on the high side. And 2012 may be surpassed.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2554 on: August 16, 2016, 07:25:12 PM »
The data from Uni Hamburg has been updated. 2016 seems to be closer to 2015 (but still ahead) than to 2012.

Update 20160815.

Extent: -36.4 (-172k vs 2015, -692k vs 2014, -610k vs 2013, +618k vs 2012)
Area: -37.7 (-132k vs 2015, -925k vs 2014, -655k vs 2013, +322k vs 2012)
 
Attached an animation of the arctic basin.

Are those deltas for the last few days (when there was no data), or just the most recent?

The report is for the most recent available days. I haven't calculated the deltas for the missing days, but from the graphs you can see it was quite moderate.

FishOutofWater

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2555 on: August 16, 2016, 09:19:28 PM »
The cyclone will re-intensify multiple times over the next 2 weeks. The ECMWF has it bombing to 959mb in 192 hours. There's a huge amount of vorticity spinning towards the pole from the north Atlantic over the next 2 weeks and it's pulling in warm air from the Eurasian continent. A huge amount of ice will be melted on the Eurasian side of the pole.




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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2556 on: August 16, 2016, 09:39:59 PM »
It's very hard to tell how much ice has been melted out this year because it hasn't gone down the side of Greenland. It has been flashed melted by the incoming Fram strait Atlantic water north of Svalbard.

Warm Kara sea water has been blown through the straits of the Siberian islands by the intense winds. The Earth Nullschool map showed very strong winds but it didn't seem to take into account the funneling by the islands. The ice immediately east of the islands was obliterated.

Let's see if this gif of the ECMWF forecast works. This cyclone may become the strongest summer cyclone ever measured in the Arctic.

JimboOmega

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2557 on: August 16, 2016, 09:58:01 PM »
The data from Uni Hamburg has been updated. 2016 seems to be closer to 2015 (but still ahead) than to 2012.

Update 20160815.

Extent: -36.4 (-172k vs 2015, -692k vs 2014, -610k vs 2013, +618k vs 2012)
Area: -37.7 (-132k vs 2015, -925k vs 2014, -655k vs 2013, +322k vs 2012)
 
Attached an animation of the arctic basin.

Are those deltas for the last few days (when there was no data), or just the most recent?

The report is for the most recent available days. I haven't calculated the deltas for the missing days, but from the graphs you can see it was quite moderate.

Didn't you say, a few posts up, that there was a -155k area loss in one frame (from a different source)?

Is that because you consider that moderate or because of a discrepancy between the sources?

Nick_Naylor

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2558 on: August 16, 2016, 11:17:26 PM »
If you go to the very top of this thread (currently page 1 of 52), Wipneus has kept the charts up to date like always. He left a gap for the missing dates, and you can see that the gap is not huge and not tiny - moderate. At least in total for the missing days.

FishOutofWater

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2559 on: August 17, 2016, 12:33:18 AM »
Ok the gif above is animated when you click it. The animation shows how spin from the storminess off of Greenland helps whip up the cyclone in the Arctic. Notice the translation of energy from the occluded storm off of Greenland along the shoreline of Europe up into the Arctic. The extremely strong thermal gradient between Greenland, as the light fades and it gets cold fast, and the very warm waters west of Norway is developing storms that whip vorticity into the Arctic ocean. The poleward vorticity advection repeatedly spins up the low level polar vortex that is developing for the coming winter. That's why the cyclone persists.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2560 on: August 17, 2016, 04:44:56 AM »
. . . The extremely strong thermal gradient between Greenland, as the light fades and it gets cold fast, and the very warm waters west of Norway is developing storms that whip vorticity into the Arctic ocean. The poleward vorticity advection repeatedly spins up the low level polar vortex that is developing for the coming winter. That's why the cyclone persists.

Hmm, seems we had a similar warm water set up and lack of sea ice in 2012.  Perhaps under these similar conditions, and at this time of year, the forcing within and immediately around the arctic becomes strong enough to reliably create cyclones of this magnitude.  Very interesting and scary if this is true.

Michael Hauber

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2561 on: August 17, 2016, 05:28:19 AM »
Cyclogenesis in mid-lattitudes is driven by upper level atmosphere dynamics.  Not sure how this translates to the Arctic region.  The research on the 2012 GAC states that an upper level vortex is key to the generation and longevity of major Arctic cyclones.  Looking at 250hp winds there has been a strong vortex in play, and has been for a while.  However whether the low pressure generated this upper vortex, or the upper generated the surface low I'm not sure.  Looking at the CMC forecast (only model I found with 250hp winds for Arctic) what stands out to me is that the jetstream through the European and west Russian region is quite weak, and a lot of the jetstream wind is diverted into a branch that passes through the Barents/Kara/Laptev sea region.  My guess is that this diversion may be playing a key role in what is predicted to be the rapid development of a low pressure system over that general region.  I'm not as familiar with NH upper level patterns as I am with patterns near Australia so I'm not sure how anomalous this upper sets up is.
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Ice Shieldz

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2562 on: August 17, 2016, 07:23:55 AM »
.... what stands out to me is that the jetstream through the European and west Russian region is quite weak, and a lot of the jetstream wind is diverted into a branch that passes through the Barents/Kara/Laptev sea region.  My guess is that this diversion may be playing a key role in what is predicted to be the rapid development of a low pressure system over that general region....
Thanks Michael, i was thinking of mentioning the jetstream - which we know is directly effected by temperature differentials between the arctic and lower latitudes.  With the arctic and surrounding regions (especially SSTs) warmer than usual, there likely is a pretty clear jetstream slowing/meandering/splintering forcing mechanism coming into play now.

From http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/02/16/277911739/warming-arctic-may-be-causing-jet-stream-to-lose-its-way:
Quote
Fundamentally, the strong warming that might drive this is tied in with the loss of sea-ice cover that we're seeing, because the sea-ice cover acts as this lid that separates the ocean from a colder atmosphere," Serreze says.

"If we remove that lid, we pump all this heat up into the atmosphere. That is a good part of the signal of warming that we're now seeing, and that could be driving some of these changes."

Here is quote from another relevant article https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/7732/ice-vs-storm-2012-s-great-arctic-cyclone:
Quote
Cavallo thinks the strength of the Great Arctic Cyclone (2012) is likely a product of the strong contrast between unusually warm waters in the East Siberian and Laptev seas and the edge of the remaining sea ice, around 75–80°N. Normally, he says, “we see more extreme cyclones in the autumn or spring, because there’s a greater temperature difference between the colder atmosphere and warm ocean waters.”

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2563 on: August 17, 2016, 09:29:48 AM »
Can we keep the weather discussion in the melt season thread, pretty please!
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

greatdying2

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2564 on: August 17, 2016, 11:05:43 AM »
Hmmm...
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2565 on: August 17, 2016, 12:28:35 PM »
Another 48-hours-composite. Certainly distorted by the heavy drift of the last days. Hope it's still useful. (I post it here because I think it's more on topic than in the general discussion - is that OK?)
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2566 on: August 17, 2016, 12:31:38 PM »
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2567 on: August 17, 2016, 05:45:49 PM »
For those interested in the delta's in the delayed dates, here are the total extent and area numbers:

 YYYYMMDD Total.Extent Total.Area
 20160811     5.046354   4.280965
 20160812     4.937318   4.116732
 20160813     4.869141   4.062369
 20160814     4.854521   4.048620
 20160815     4.818147   4.010906
 20160816     4.766393   3.870943


Update 20160816.

Extent: -51.8 (-165k vs 2015, -653k vs 2014, -574k vs 2013, +616k vs 2012)
Area: -140.0 (-189k vs 2015, -1002k vs 2014, -734k vs 2013, +227k vs 2012)
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

Extent in the CAB lost -37k. Other regions changed little in extent.

Also by area, the changes are mostly in the CAB: -107k. Chukchi far behind is second at -15k.

Attached is the delta map of the Arctic Basin. The combination of very mobile ice and strong winds make a picture of unusual many changes indicated by the blues and the reds.


Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2568 on: August 18, 2016, 10:26:52 AM »
Strong extent drop today. Area continues dropping so fast that is approaching 2012 again.

Update 20160817.

Extent: -106.9 (-240k vs 2015, -686k vs 2014, -653k vs 2013, +556k vs 2012)
Area: -145.1 (-343k vs 2015, -1150k vs 2014, -878k vs 2013, +157k vs 2012)
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

Regional extent decline is led again by the CAB (-81k), the remainder is contributed by ESS (-25k).

Similar CAB area was -123k with  ESS (-24k) and CAA (-18k) contributing smaller amounts.

The animation is of the Canadian Archipelago. There is still time enough to clear the main NW passage.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2569 on: August 18, 2016, 03:13:13 PM »
Quite a bit of compaction occurring along the CAA. No doubt a result of the cyclone.

bbr2314

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2570 on: August 19, 2016, 05:28:30 AM »
Today's AMSR2 image looks truly catastrophic... would guess we see a major 150K+ area drop comparing with yday, looks like clouds finally got out of the way (in the parts that have flash melted past few days).


Neven

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2571 on: August 19, 2016, 09:27:53 AM »
This is indeed starting to look like detachment:
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2572 on: August 19, 2016, 10:44:11 AM »
This is indeed starting to look like detachment:

Where? Laptev Sea? Or the patch in the East Siberian Sea? Or both? Or is the ice just going poof?
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

Neven

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2573 on: August 19, 2016, 11:29:13 AM »
Here (I don't know about the Laptev as of yet):
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Thawing Thunder

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2574 on: August 19, 2016, 01:17:56 PM »
Ah, OK, thank you Neven. To clarify my question referring the Laptev Sea: I meant the small tongue reaching from the main ice pack to the Siberian coast, not that big area north of it that might detach close to the pole if the storm keeps pushing and grinding for many days more (which in fact I agree to be not very probable).
The Thunder was father of the first people, and the Moon was the first mother. But Maxa'xâk, the evil horned serpent, destroyed the Water Keeper Spirit and loosed the waters upon the Earth and the first people were no more.

iceman

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2575 on: August 19, 2016, 01:24:10 PM »
This is indeed starting to look like detachment:

Pretty close next few days, with more Coriolis drift followed by slightly divergent winds near the weak spot (circa 82*N x 180*).  Then some compaction around the 23rd.  Deciding factor will be whether subsurface melt is enough to overcome low SSTs in the wake of the cyclone.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2576 on: August 19, 2016, 01:57:03 PM »
Today's AMSR2 image looks truly catastrophic... would guess we see a major 150K+ area drop comparing with yday.

Hamburg AMSR2 rather than Bremen. 133.5 to be precise.
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Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2577 on: August 19, 2016, 02:47:45 PM »
Indeed.

Update 20160818. Extent is going strong, but the area drop is most impressive. Very near 2012 now and only 110 k above September 2015 minimum.

Extent: -76.5 (-289k vs 2015, -694k vs 2014, -766k vs 2013, +423k vs 2012)
Area: -133.5 (-505k vs 2015, -1277k vs 2014, -1163k vs 2013, +44k vs 2012)
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

Regional extent drops are from the CAB: -55k and CAA (-20k).

Regional area drop mostly from the CAB: -110k.

Delta map is from the side of the "Barents Bite". Low concentration near the pole and lots of little polynyas have appeared. That could be a temporary low caused by the weather, but who knows.

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2578 on: August 19, 2016, 03:57:18 PM »
...  To clarify my question referring the Laptev Sea: I meant the small tongue reaching from the main ice pack to the Siberian coast, not that big area north of it that might detach close to the pole if the storm keeps pushing and grinding for many days more (which in fact I agree to be not very probable).
A couple of days ago, admittedly after a spot of difficulty, the yacht Northabout passed through that "tongue reaching from the main ice pack to the Siberian coast".

The GPS tracking record can be seen here...
http://polarocean.co.uk/tracking/

On his Great White Con blog, Jim Hunt also has several articles on the attempted circumnavigation of both the NSR and the NWP. For example...
http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/08/northabout-meets-some-serious-sea-ice/

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2579 on: August 19, 2016, 05:15:26 PM »
Today's AMSR2 image looks truly catastrophic... would guess we see a major 150K+ area drop comparing with yday, looks like clouds finally got out of the way (in the parts that have flash melted past few days).



good to see you back my friend, sure you're smiling as i do LOL

some people should now go back and read your posts from months ago :thumbup:

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2580 on: August 19, 2016, 05:57:40 PM »

good to see you back my friend, sure you're smiling as i do LOL

some people should now go back and read your posts from months ago :thumbup:

Yes, from those early posts by now all the Arctic buoys should be floating around Iceland.
bbr nonetheless had a good intuition on being concerned by the effect of storm after storm (and a couple more during the leave of absence), and proved to be right on their negative effect, only that not at "a-day-after-tomorrow" timescale and without help from an unexisting gravitational pull from the Atlantic.
But Magnamentis, let me ask, what was your point, what did you win to smile so much?

bbr2314

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2581 on: August 19, 2016, 06:31:05 PM »

good to see you back my friend, sure you're smiling as i do LOL

some people should now go back and read your posts from months ago :thumbup:

Yes, from those early posts by now all the Arctic buoys should be floating around Iceland.
bbr nonetheless had a good intuition on being concerned by the effect of storm after storm (and a couple more during the leave of absence), and proved to be right on their negative effect, only that not at "a-day-after-tomorrow" timescale and without help from an unexisting gravitational pull from the Atlantic.
But Magnamentis, let me ask, what was your point, what did you win to smile so much?

Day after tomorrow effects will manifest in the fall (like 2012... Sandy/etc). Got to flip the switch on insolation first, then the imbalance gets really crazy ;)

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2582 on: August 19, 2016, 10:59:16 PM »
some people should now go back and read your posts from months ago :thumbup:

You mean like this one:

HYCOM shows the split in the pack becoming more pronounced and legitimately spanning from Canada to Siberia. As the pack splits in two, and as we see storms traverse the split, I think the chances of a completely ice-free Arctic this year are increasing quite dramatically.

And then RubiksCube said:

Quote
The pack is not going to split from Siberia to Canada, period. What can happen is a larger part of the pack detaching from the rest in the ESS, after all it did happen in 2012, and this year with lots of thick ice stacked up against the far east siberian coast it may very well happen again.

And I around that time, end of June, said on the blog:

Quote
Even though 2016 has been breaking records all year so far, as things currently stand, it will take special weather conditions for it to break any records near the end of the melting season.

Magnamentis, I'm getting a bit tired of you creating this atmosphere where you and a couple of other Galileos were right the very moment you went overboard months ago, and everyone else persecuted and mocked you, but now you pat yourself on the back for something that is still less than you have predicted, despite a GAC.

I can be tolerant of many things, but I'm not a fan of the combination of DK and arrogance.

You should consider spending your time at the AMEG blog, where Sam Carana predicts the end of the world every week.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2583 on: August 19, 2016, 11:08:52 PM »
You should consider spending your time at the AMEG blog, where Sam Carana predicts the end of the world every week.

He might be right one week! Unfortunately there will be nobody left to pat him on the back to say "Great prediction this week".

bbr2314

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2584 on: August 19, 2016, 11:17:00 PM »
some people should now go back and read your posts from months ago :thumbup:

You mean like this one:

HYCOM shows the split in the pack becoming more pronounced and legitimately spanning from Canada to Siberia. As the pack splits in two, and as we see storms traverse the split, I think the chances of a completely ice-free Arctic this year are increasing quite dramatically.

And then RubiksCube said:

Quote
The pack is not going to split from Siberia to Canada, period. What can happen is a larger part of the pack detaching from the rest in the ESS, after all it did happen in 2012, and this year with lots of thick ice stacked up against the far east siberian coast it may very well happen again.

And I around that time, end of June, said on the blog:

Quote
Even though 2016 has been breaking records all year so far, as things currently stand, it will take special weather conditions for it to break any records near the end of the melting season.

Magnamentis, I'm getting a bit tired of you creating this atmosphere where you and a couple of other Galileos were right the very moment you went overboard months ago, and everyone else persecuted and mocked you, but now you pat yourself on the back for something that is still less than you have predicted, despite a GAC.

I can be tolerant of many things, but I'm not a fan of the combination of DK and arrogance.

You should consider spending your time at the AMEG blog, where Sam Carana predicts the end of the world every week.

And I later said it was splitting in three... I don't want to toot my horn but I have been pretty correct overall and the jury is still out re: 1M KM2 or less this yr (i.e ice-free).

Your post ^ strikes me as an attack, if anything... I was mocked/"persecuted", not that I care.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2585 on: August 20, 2016, 12:41:21 AM »
And I later said it was splitting in three... I don't want to toot my horn but I have been pretty correct overall

You and magnamentis are tooting your horns all the time, as if this is some gotcha game where you're either right or wrong. No room for caveats or wait-and-see. This kind of attitude spoils the atmosphere on a forum where people exchange information and speculate on possibilities together.

Everybody has been pretty correct overall, as everyone here is concerned about Arctic sea ice loss and knows that things aren't looking good. But they don't feel the need to thump themselves on their chests and announce a Hollywood blockbuster.

It's bad enough as it is, without the WAGs and über-alarmism. But when the WAGs and über-alarmism fail to materialize, a lot of people will think everything is okay, because the worst didn't come to pass. In the meantime, things are still f**ed up.

Quote
Your post ^ strikes me as an attack, if anything... I was mocked/"persecuted", not that I care.

You were basing your alarmist predictions on a faulty model, and when people pointed this out, you attacked them. You're spoiling the atmosphere with your overboard predictions and belligerent tone. And though magnamentis isn't belligerent, he's making up for it with arrogant sarcasm. I'm slowly getting fed up with it.

Quote
and the jury is still out re: 1M KM2 or less this yr (i.e ice-free).

Yes, the AMEG jury. The Sam Caranas and Paul Beckwiths.  This jury is out every year, all the way to mid-September. One year they will be right.
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seaicesailor

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2586 on: August 20, 2016, 12:50:57 AM »
...despite a GAC...
Quite an affirmation

Reggie

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2587 on: August 20, 2016, 01:08:01 AM »
@Neven
Thank you...that needed to be said

magnamentis

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2588 on: August 20, 2016, 01:09:00 AM »

You and magnamentis are tooting your horns [/quote]

that tooting is for several reasons:

a) the replies at that time were very offending and aggressive even though many things were obvious and show to be that now and did so before

b) there is a saying that as one shouts into the woods the echo comes back and considering this general wisdom
the tooting is quite moderate IMO, while i think it's absolutely necessary that some people remember in the future who is said what ( your own words and proposal ) and who has an "eye" for the bigger picture.

what counts is what is right, not who is right but then if some people are often spot on they should not be met with offending comments over and over again.

if this is about finding the most accurate predictions and facts it cannot be wrong to toot that horn from time to time. i for my part know exactly what i wrote and it came to happen over and over again and further will.
since i'm not a scientist perhaps is simple locic, observation and an open eye for the multitude of factors instead of concentrating on on model or another and build an opinion on weekly or even worse, daily numbers and events.

i find it a interesting that when we were attacked for saying what is showing to be close now nobody felt
the need to take those statements into consideration but now interestingly some are very quick to
put another stamp again.

first one gets bashed for the bluntness to go agains the mainstream and then when it happens is bashed again
for remind the bashers that the tone at that time was not appropriate.

this, by the way is what happens all over the place, in politics, religions and elswhere and is part of the bigger problems on this planet. after all believers are just that, believers, and what they believe is more loss less arbitrary, while all believers have one thing in common, they will try to mute those who stick to facts and this is no different.

lurkalot

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2589 on: August 20, 2016, 01:47:45 AM »
Well said Neven. BBR ha been largely absent during recent weeks when it was looking as though his wild forecasts would not come to pass. Now that events have turned somewhat, due to a chance event rather than any perspicacity on his part, he has returned. Personally I would rather he took his arrogance and rudeness elsewhere.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2591 on: August 20, 2016, 01:55:42 AM »
And I later said it was splitting in three... I don't want to toot my horn but I have been pretty correct overall

You and magnamentis are tooting your horns all the time, as if this is some gotcha game where you're either right or wrong. No room for caveats or wait-and-see. This kind of attitude spoils the atmosphere on a forum where people exchange information and speculate on possibilities together.

Everybody has been pretty correct overall, as everyone here is concerned about Arctic sea ice loss and knows that things aren't looking good. But they don't feel the need to thump themselves on their chests and announce a Hollywood blockbuster.

It's bad enough as it is, without the WAGs and über-alarmism. But when the WAGs and über-alarmism fail to materialize, a lot of people will think everything is okay, because the worst didn't come to pass. In the meantime, things are still f**ed up.

Quote
Your post ^ strikes me as an attack, if anything... I was mocked/"persecuted", not that I care.

You were basing your alarmist predictions on a faulty model, and when people pointed this out, you attacked them. You're spoiling the atmosphere with your overboard predictions and belligerent tone. And though magnamentis isn't belligerent, he's making up for it with arrogant sarcasm. I'm slowly getting fed up with it.

Quote
and the jury is still out re: 1M KM2 or less this yr (i.e ice-free).

Yes, the AMEG jury. The Sam Caranas and Paul Beckwiths.  This jury is out every year, all the way to mid-September. One year they will be right.

I have not tooted my horn... I've been banned for a month... how would that even be possible?!

I was not basing my predictions on the model I was simply describing what it showed...

If you look through this thread/my posts I'm pretty sure I have not said "I was right" once (partly bc I was not right just yet)... I post images and evidence with every assertion I make, if that is a problem for you I don't have to contribute here anymore. :)

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2592 on: August 20, 2016, 01:59:00 AM »
Shall we move this discussion to the 2016 melting thread?

It might be risky as there is enough hot air in this thread to melt all the remaining ice.

Darvince

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2593 on: August 20, 2016, 02:02:00 AM »
It might be risky as there is enough hot air in this thread to melt all the remaining ice.
;D

budmantis

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2594 on: August 20, 2016, 02:21:18 AM »
You've stirred up quite a hornets nest Neven, but it had to be done and I'm glad you did.

FishOutofWater

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2595 on: August 20, 2016, 03:03:32 AM »
Right now that one person who has a reason to too his horn is Rob Decker. And thanks, Wipneus for keeping us ahead of the curve with your great images and extent & area calculations.

Vague forecasts, like astrologists make, that can't be readily tested, are not scientifically useful. And if you can't show your homework, it's more art than science.

HYCOM may be precise but it's not accurate. It makes for good illustrations but don't hang your hat on the absolute values.

Thanks, Neven, for keeping an even keel.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2596 on: August 20, 2016, 05:08:16 AM »
I can be tolerant of many things, but I'm not a fan of the combination of DK and arrogance.

So I take it you won't be voting Trump?   ;D   Jk. I see I've missed a lot this season but I'm glad I tuned in for what may be turning into a very grand finale.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2597 on: August 20, 2016, 05:40:12 AM »
You should consider spending your time at the AMEG blog, where Sam Carana predicts the end of the world every week.

He might be right one week! Unfortunately there will be nobody left to pat him on the back to say "Great prediction this week".

A broken clock is right twice a day.

Doesn't do anyone any good though.

anotheramethyst

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2598 on: August 20, 2016, 06:01:47 AM »
Bbr to be fair, you weren't the horn Tooter, magnamentis was.  Even still, this forum is not a contest about who can be the most right.  It's a place to share ideas and agree to disagree. But I will say that there are people here who have been very quick to attack other people's ideas and then cry when their own ideas are attacked.  That's toxic.  Also, if this WERE a contest to see who could be the most right, it's not polite to brag "I was right!! In yo face!!" When you're right..... But it's downright stupid to brag about being right when the future you predicted hasn't happened yet.

So, to recap... This forum is a place where we get together to discuss the Arctic sea ice and compare widely varying points of view so we can all understand the ice better.  And this topic is about amsr2 data, which is VERY fascinating right now, nail bitingly enthralling, i would say.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2599 on: August 20, 2016, 07:08:12 AM »
I disagree with bbr about many things. I do not think we will drop below 1M km2 by the end of this season. I have personally been let down by HYCOM and deceived by it and dislike it. I hope he has seen the light about it too. But all this piling on comment after comment to deride him; I really question the motives. Like he said, he was banned for a month, and barely came back to make a couple posts. If Neven feels the need to say something, that his business, although if a month is what was fair at the time, why does he need more punishment now. I won't say anything else on the matter, no matter what I am called because of this post. Feel free to pile on me now, but I will ignore it, so don't get too much joy from it.

P.S. Apologize for being off topic, but really, this thread has been off for a while.
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