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Author Topic: Places becoming less livable  (Read 55158 times)

rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #300 on: June 30, 2017, 10:38:43 PM »
Extreme heatwaves could push Gulf climate beyond human endurance, study shows

"Oil heartlands of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Iran’s coast will experience higher temperatures and humidity than ever before on Earth if the world fails to cut carbon emissions"

Story from 2015, but very apt given the headlines about heat extremes coming out of Iran. The Middle East fossil fuel heartland will experience unlivable combinations of heat and humidity. Seems we may be getting there faster than expected. May also be impossible to have the outside rituals of the Hajj.

magnamentis

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #301 on: June 30, 2017, 11:00:23 PM »
Extreme heatwaves could push Gulf climate beyond human endurance, study shows

"Oil heartlands of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Iran’s coast will experience higher temperatures and humidity than ever before on Earth if the world fails to cut carbon emissions"

Story from 2015, but very apt given the headlines about heat extremes coming out of Iran. The Middle East fossil fuel heartland will experience unlivable combinations of heat and humidity. Seems we may be getting there faster than expected. May also be impossible to have the outside rituals of the Hajj.

the humidity part sounds interesting and a bit of time into the future since that regions is pure desert land and currently one of the dryer places on planet earth. is there any explanation why that region is expected to change from dry to humid climate or is it just one of many modeled theories?
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rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #302 on: June 30, 2017, 11:16:06 PM »
magnamentis, it may be that the humidity becomes high for a desert location. With these temperatures, doesn't take much humidity to make things unlivable. As it says below, there is moist air from the Persian Gulf to the south. Most of this area is close to the coast.

"The excessively hot air over Ahvaz, a city of 1.1 million people, felt even more stifling due to high humidity. As the temperature climbed into the high 120s, the dew point, a measure of humidity, peaked in the low 70s; a high level for the desert location (due to moist air flow from the Persian Gulf, to the south). The heat index — a measure of how hot it feels factoring in the humidity — exceeded 140 degrees. This combination of heat and humidity was so extreme that it was beyond levels the heat index was designed to compute.

In the Persian Gulf city of Jask, Iran, about 800 miles southeast of Ahvaz, the humidity was even more suffocating. The dew point on Wednesday morning hit 91.4 degrees. Dew points above 90 are quite rare. The highest dew point ever measured on Earth is 95 degrees (35 Celsius), set at Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, on July 8, 2003."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/06/29/iran-city-soars-to-record-of-129-degrees-near-hottest-ever-reliably-measured-on-earth/?utm_term=.48f6ac388c16

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #303 on: July 04, 2017, 03:15:20 AM »
This Map Shows How Badly Climate Change Will Impact Each County In The US
As temperatures go up, the US economy will suffer, according to a new study. And the warmer it gets, the worse the damages will be.
US counties face steep economic damages tied to future global warming, with the poorest counties to be hit hardest, according to a county-by-county analysis published on Thursday.

The warmer it gets, the worse that farms, businesses, and people will fare.

“As temperatures goes up, the economy gets damaged,” study author Amir Jina of the University of Chicago told BuzzFeed News, adding that “for each additional degree, there’s increasing damages done.”...
https://www.buzzfeed.com/zahrahirji/climate-change-hurts-local-economies-in-us-study-shows

 Interactive map at the above link.
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rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #304 on: July 04, 2017, 06:52:47 AM »
This Map Shows How Badly Climate Change Will Impact Each County In The US
As temperatures go up, the US economy will suffer, according to a new study. And the warmer it gets, the worse the damages will be.
US counties face steep economic damages tied to future global warming, with the poorest counties to be hit hardest, according to a county-by-county analysis published on Thursday.


The study seems to seriously underestimate the amount of damage as temperatures increase, a problem with many of these economics damage-type assessments. From the graph below, taken from the study - a 6 degree centigrade rise in temperature reduces US GDP by about 7%? 6 degrees is the end of civilization, and the economy as we know it.

The study includes climate scientists, strange that they would think that a 6 degrees global average temperature rise will create such a small impact? Even worse, from the paper "8°C warming is 6.4 to 15.7% GDP annually"

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362.full

« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 07:03:48 AM by rboyd »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #305 on: July 05, 2017, 02:44:33 PM »
Yes. That sure seems to be a hopelessly inaccurate chart.

rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #306 on: July 05, 2017, 05:11:34 PM »
Its based on an economic model, when was the last time an economist accurately predicted the GDP growth rate for a single country for the following few years accurately? Amazing how they keep failing, but also keep their positions of power over how we make judgements about the future.

Best to ignore them, and treat 2 degrees as the line in the sand. The approach that the UN IPCC is taking.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #307 on: July 09, 2017, 08:22:16 PM »
Climate change threatens nomadic life in Morocco
The Max Planck Institute for Chemistry predicts that temperatures in the Middle East and North Africa will increase twice as fast as the global average. Even if the overall rise in temperatures can be held below the Paris climate accord’s target of 2 degrees Celsius, the entire region is likely to become uninhabitable, the institute said in a 2016 statement.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/07/04/morocco-nomadic-life-danger-climate-change/440637001/
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pileus

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #308 on: July 10, 2017, 02:08:51 PM »
A sweeping and comprehensive piece in NY Magazine that covers much ground, ultimately with respect to the entire Earth becoming less liveable as the myriad effects of global temperature and CO2 levels increase.  A long essay that is worth the time.

This may not be the appropriate place for this article, so Neven please move if you see fit.

New York Magazine - July 10 - David Wallace Wells

The Uninhabitable Earth
Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak — sooner than you think.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html

It is, I promise, worse than you think. If your anxiety about global warming is dominated by fears of sea-level rise, you are barely scratching the surface of what terrors are possible, even within the lifetime of a teenager today. And yet the swelling seas — and the cities they will drown — have so dominated the picture of global warming, and so overwhelmed our capacity for climate panic, that they have occluded our perception of other threats, many much closer at hand. Rising oceans are bad, in fact very bad; but fleeing the coastline will not be enough.

Indeed, absent a significant adjustment to how billions of humans conduct their lives, parts of the Earth will likely become close to uninhabitable, and other parts horrifically inhospitable, as soon as the end of this century.
---
But no matter how well-informed you are, you are surely not alarmed enough. Over the past decades, our culture has gone apocalyptic with zombie movies and Mad Max dystopias, perhaps the collective result of displaced climate anxiety, and yet when it comes to contemplating real-world warming dangers, we suffer from an incredible failure of imagination. The reasons for that are many: the timid language of scientific probabilities, which the climatologist James Hansen once called “scientific reticence” in a paper chastising scientists for editing their own observations so conscientiously that they failed to communicate how dire the threat really was; the fact that the country is dominated by a group of technocrats who believe any problem can be solved and an opposing culture that doesn’t even see warming as a problem worth addressing; the way that climate denialism has made scientists even more cautious in offering speculative warnings; the simple speed of change and, also, its slowness, such that we are only seeing effects now of warming from decades past; our uncertainty about uncertainty, which the climate writer Naomi Oreskes in particular has suggested stops us from preparing as though anything worse than a median outcome were even possible; the way we assume climate change will hit hardest elsewhere, not everywhere; the smallness (two degrees) and largeness (1.8 trillion tons) and abstractness (400 parts per million) of the numbers; the discomfort of considering a problem that is very difficult, if not impossible, to solve; the altogether incomprehensible scale of that problem, which amounts to the prospect of our own annihilation; simple fear. But aversion arising from fear is a form of denial, too.

In between scientific reticence and science fiction is science itself. This article is the result of dozens of interviews and exchanges with climatologists and researchers in related fields and reflects hundreds of scientific papers on the subject of climate change. What follows is not a series of predictions of what will happen — that will be determined in large part by the much-less-certain science of human response. Instead, it is a portrait of our best understanding of where the planet is heading absent aggressive action. It is unlikely that all of these warming scenarios will be fully realized, largely because the devastation along the way will shake our complacency. But those scenarios, and not the present climate, are the baseline. In fact, they are our schedule.


rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #309 on: July 10, 2017, 07:10:19 PM »
pileus - great article, so rare to see such blunt realism.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #310 on: July 11, 2017, 12:51:39 AM »
The "wildlife-urban interface" may be becoming an even more dangerous place.

Why a Bear Attacked a Teen In His Sleep
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/black-bear-attack-campers-head-colorado-spd/
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pileus

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #311 on: July 11, 2017, 01:23:49 AM »
pileus - great article, so rare to see such blunt realism.

Dr Mann and others have responded with push back on the extent of he "doomsaying" and some misrepresentation of the science.  While these are of course valid call outs, changing the tone of the risk discussion to be more specific and perhaps frightening will be necessary if there is any hope for sufficient future action and preparation.  But if there is any bogus or exaggerated science, it should rightfully be criticized.

TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #312 on: July 11, 2017, 05:50:55 AM »
The "wildlife-urban interface" may be becoming an even more dangerous place.

Why a Bear Attacked a Teen In His Sleep
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/black-bear-attack-campers-head-colorado-spd/



Sleepwalking bears should always be given a wide berth, and awakened slowly and gently.  8)


Terry

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #313 on: July 11, 2017, 02:08:54 PM »
In order to survive the current social-political-environmental challenges in the knowledge of there being certain future challenges (CC, climate refugees, etc.), many are functionally sleepwalking.  Especially in places like Florida with "stand your ground" laws, these sleepwalking bears should definitely be given a wide berth.
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rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #314 on: July 11, 2017, 06:37:22 PM »
pileus - great article, so rare to see such blunt realism.

Dr Mann and others have responded with push back on the extent of he "doomsaying" and some misrepresentation of the science.  While these are of course valid call outs, changing the tone of the risk discussion to be more specific and perhaps frightening will be necessary if there is any hope for sufficient future action and preparation.  But if there is any bogus or exaggerated science, it should rightfully be criticized.

I absolutely agree with Dr. Mann on the reporting of the UAH satellite data, which basically corrected some major errors that had made it an outlier versus other data sets. The changes simply aligned it properly with the other data sets, getting rid of a major denier crutch, it did not show that the actual warming was any greater. Absolutely shameful and sloppy journalism.

I am saddened at the tone of Dr. Manns response to the NYM article. What is reported is a possible outcome and he should have said that. Calling it "doomist framing", rather than one possible outcome, is a great over reaction.

Mozi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #315 on: July 11, 2017, 11:29:01 PM »
You could also call it 'putting two and two together.'

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #316 on: July 13, 2017, 02:58:49 PM »
A new project in the area flooded by Hurrricane Katrina does not appear to benefit the remaining residents.

Army Corps Faces Mountain Of Mistrust In New Orleans' Ninth Ward
In New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward, a new infrastructure project has reopened old wounds.

For more than 50 years, the Army Corps of Engineers has tried to expand the Inner Harbor Navigational Canal. The shipping canal connects the Mississippi River to Lake Pontchartrain. Now, officials want to dig it up and build a new lock to let more tugboats and barges through.

But the people of Lower Ninth are not having it. The conflict is emblematic of a long history of mistrust.
...
http://www.npr.org/2017/07/11/536630382/army-corps-faces-mountain-of-mistrust-in-new-orleans-ninth-ward
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Archimid

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #317 on: July 16, 2017, 12:14:26 AM »
‘The permafrost is dying’: Bethel sees increased shifting of roads and buildings

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/rural-alaska/2017/07/07/the-permafrost-is-dying-bethel-sees-increased-shifting-of-roads-and-buildings/

Along the main thoroughfare here, drivers brake for warped asphalt. Houses sink unevenly into the ground. Walls crack and doors stick. Utility poles tilt, sometimes at alarming angles.

Permafrost in and around Bethel is deteriorating and shrinking, even more quickly than most places in Alaska.

Since the first buildings out here, people have struggled with the freeze and thaw of the soils above the permafrost. Now those challenges are amplified.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #318 on: July 20, 2017, 08:00:19 PM »
Too Sunny in Philadelphia? Satellites Zero In on Dangerous Urban Heat Island
- Satellite and socioeconomic data can pinpoint which of a city’s neighborhoods are most at risk during heat waves
Cities around the world are getting hotter as the planet warms, and the consequences can be deadly. Researchers have linked heat waves like the one that hit Russia in 2010—killing 55,000 people—to climate change. And even without global warming, cities tend to bake when the weather gets warm. Surfaces such as asphalt roads and concrete buildings absorb and then radiate a lot of solar energy, which can leave urban areas 6 to 8 degrees Celsius warmer than rural regions.

Although some people can just crank up the air-conditioning amid increasingly brutal heat, many cannot. Urban decision makers need to know where to focus resources as they plan their adaptation strategies, potentially as a matter of life and death. But how can they pinpoint the most vulnerable populations? In a recent study researchers answered this question for Philadelphia by mapping the places where residents are most at risk....
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/too-sunny-in-philadelphia-satellites-zero-in-on-dangerous-urban-heat-islands/
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