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oren

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #350 on: August 24, 2017, 06:37:06 AM »
Thank you for sharing this, bligh8. Very interesting.

P-maker

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #351 on: August 24, 2017, 11:04:39 AM »
Hi Bligh

You seem to be going through an existential crisis right now. To sell, or not to sell; to fight your neighbours, or not to fight; to fight your President’s focus on selling arms to rich people to protect themselves, or to spend your time doing much more clever things.

In my view (inspired by quite a few similar situations), I would tell my wife to shut up for the moment! Then look for a high-lying house (at least 6-8 m above sea level) with a view over the lowlands. From there, I would engage in local community work to help people downstream of your property escape from flooding, when tropical cyclones  such as #Harvey comes your way (it’s called water tanks). Then I would make sure to install some solar-driven cooling system in order to survive heat waves like in Iraq or Kuwait.

Then I would put on the kettle and expect visitors from overseas.

Cheers P

bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #352 on: August 24, 2017, 03:56:25 PM »
thanks for the thoughtful replies

Strategies for Flood Risk Reduction for Vulnerable Coastal Populations around Barnegat Bay.

Barnegat Bay is the next bay south, some 30 miles south of Sandy Hook, Raritan Bay & New York Harbor.

Note: this paper uses IPCC values for SLR…. it’s interesting, but 339 pages long.

THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE

Coasts are sensitive to sea level rise. A rise in sea level and coastal subsidence will increase the levels of flooding, and the low-lying areas will be permanently inundated. Global warming has raised global sea level about 8 inches since 1880 (US EPA). It is predicted that global mean sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 will be between nine and eighty eight centimeters (Nicholls, 2002). Most models indicate that flooding will continue to worsen as sea surface elevation increases because all storms will be operating on a higher water level at the outlet. Model predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate a rapid sea level rise for the Northeast Atlantic Coast of the United States in the twenty-first century (Yin et al., 2009). In the NY/NJ metropolitan region, sea levels are predicted to rise by 18–60 cm by the 2050s, and 24–108 cm by the 2080s over late 20th century levels (Gornitz et al., 2010; Cahoon and Gunttenspergen, 2010). This means that coastal flooding associated with sea level rise will become a significant issue in the next 100 years Relative sea level rise around Barnegat Bay results from ongoing coastal subsidence since the end of the last glacial period as well as eustatic sea level rise caused by melting glaciers and thermal expansion of the ocean. Increases in sea level and runoff have severely stressed existing stormwater infrastructure such as storm sewer pipes, drainage ditches, culverts, detention basins, and household sump pumps. The infrastructure is in need of significant improvements and may need to be redesigned to deal with changing conditions. The following flood maps (Fig. 2.1) show the predicted extent of inundation at Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) when the water in Barnegat Bay rises 1ft, 2ft, 3ft, 4ft, and 6ft for Seaside Heights Borough. The green color represents the low-lying areas. The portrayals of the extent of inundation for other townships / boroughs are provided in Appendix A.

http://www.nj.gov/dep/docs/flood/final-studies/rutgers-barnegat/barnegat-bay-study-area-flood-mitigation-final-report.pdf

See Also:

I see the township using these numbers for guidance’s.

 http://geology.rutgers.edu/images/stories/faculty/miller_kenneth_g/Sealevelfactsheet7112014update.pdf

bligh

P-maker

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #353 on: August 24, 2017, 06:30:27 PM »
Bligh, I told you so:

General SLR until the end of the century: 10-12 feet. Then add a Sandy-like surge of 9-14 feet. It all adds up to 19-26 feet - roughly equal to 6-8 meters above current sealevel.

Happy hunting!

solartim27

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #354 on: August 27, 2017, 06:38:23 PM »
In case you missed this in December, it's coming true now.  Excellent reporting, well worth looking at.  Stock market is going to tank on Monday.
This is part of a series on Houston's flood risk.

Boomtown, Flood Town
"Climate change will bring more frequent and fierce rainstorms to cities like Houston. But unchecked development remains a priority in the famously un-zoned city, creating short-term economic gains for some while increasing flood risks for everyone."
https://projects.propublica.org/houston-cypress/

And do read the companion piece
This is part of a series on Houston's flood risk. Read about why Texas isn't ready for the next big hurricane.
https://projects.propublica.org/houston/
« Last Edit: August 27, 2017, 06:43:57 PM by solartim27 »
FNORD

Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #355 on: August 27, 2017, 08:45:00 PM »
Bligh, I told you so:

General SLR until the end of the century: 10-12 feet. Then add a Sandy-like surge of 9-14 feet. It all adds up to 19-26 feet - roughly equal to 6-8 meters above current sealevel.

Happy hunting!

Seems rather pessimistic.  As stated previously, sea level has risen 8 inches over the past 130 years (EPA), yet you claim thus will accelerate more than 10 fold this century.  What is your explanation for such a change?

rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #356 on: August 27, 2017, 11:05:32 PM »
Bligh, I told you so:

General SLR until the end of the century: 10-12 feet. Then add a Sandy-like surge of 9-14 feet. It all adds up to 19-26 feet - roughly equal to 6-8 meters above current sealevel.

Happy hunting!


Seems rather pessimistic.  As stated previously, sea level has risen 8 inches over the past 130 years (EPA), yet you claim thus will accelerate more than 10 fold this century.  What is your explanation for such a change?


Daniel,

Your comment professes a complete ignorance of recent scientific research in this area (Hansen, Rignot etc.), and the contents of many posts on this blog (see the Sea Level Rise and Cost of Carbon topic), that points to the probability of rapid SLR in the balance of this century. Let's remember that the UN IPCC projections basically ignored more pessimistic views on ice sheet dynamics. With a complex system, such as the climate, historic observations may not be a very useful guide to the future. If you look at the record of global sea level rise you will see the acceleration that has occurred in recent decades.

Due to gravitational effects, and the most significant amount of SLR coming from Antarctica, the rise will be greater (about 25% or more) on the U.S. coasts.

Climate Model Predicts West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/science/global-warming-antarctica-ice-sheet-sea-level-rise.html?_r=0

Abrupt Sea Level Rise Looms As Increasingly Realistic Threat

"James Hansen, a climatologist at Columbia University, summarized the evidence for rapid sea level rise in a recent controversial paper, raising some eyebrows at its stark warnings of catastrophe. Though many researchers have taken issue with the dramatic tone and specific details of that paper, its conclusion — that multi-meter sea level rise is possible in the next 50, 100, or 200 years — does not seem so alarmist in the face of other recent work."

http://e360.yale.edu/features/abrupt_sea_level_rise_realistic_greenland_antarctica



bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #357 on: August 28, 2017, 06:17:13 PM »
That 10-12ft remark kinda spooked me. 

Our entire civilization is built on the premise
of a stable coast line, this is something we will not have for centuries to come. I fear we have already lost Greenland and the WAIS and some of, if not all the marine terminating glaciers around east Antarctica.  These papers.. Article #: 5799(2017) doi10.1038,… DOI: 10.1002/2016GlO68506 (it is the timing and no so much the content of this paper), and  whats up in Disco-Uummannaq bay along with the mention of a possible saddle collapse. And of course the dramatic loss of the Arctic sea ice….all of these and a great many many more papers are truly scary.

But I’m a simple old sailor, who in my minds eye, see the vastness of the global destruction and the loss of many a beloved places across the planet due to SLR. Here, back home I shudder as folks march with signs ”No sea wall”…my birdbaths go unused, the nighttime din of the ever-present summertime insects seems all but gone.

I take great delight listing to the sounds of the children laughing and somehow hold out hope that they enjoy their lives as much as I have enjoyed mine.
bligh




Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #358 on: August 28, 2017, 06:56:29 PM »
Bligh, I told you so:

General SLR until the end of the century: 10-12 feet. Then add a Sandy-like surge of 9-14 feet. It all adds up to 19-26 feet - roughly equal to 6-8 meters above current sealevel.

Happy hunting!


Seems rather pessimistic.  As stated previously, sea level has risen 8 inches over the past 130 years (EPA), yet you claim thus will accelerate more than 10 fold this century.  What is your explanation for such a change?


Daniel,

Your comment professes a complete ignorance of recent scientific research in this area (Hansen, Rignot etc.), and the contents of many posts on this blog (see the Sea Level Rise and Cost of Carbon topic), that points to the probability of rapid SLR in the balance of this century. Let's remember that the UN IPCC projections basically ignored more pessimistic views on ice sheet dynamics. With a complex system, such as the climate, historic observations may not be a very useful guide to the future. If you look at the record of global sea level rise you will see the acceleration that has occurred in recent decades.

Due to gravitational effects, and the most significant amount of SLR coming from Antarctica, the rise will be greater (about 25% or more) on the U.S. coasts.

Climate Model Predicts West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/science/global-warming-antarctica-ice-sheet-sea-level-rise.html?_r=0

Abrupt Sea Level Rise Looms As Increasingly Realistic Threat

"James Hansen, a climatologist at Columbia University, summarized the evidence for rapid sea level rise in a recent controversial paper, raising some eyebrows at its stark warnings of catastrophe. Though many researchers have taken issue with the dramatic tone and specific details of that paper, its conclusion — that multi-meter sea level rise is possible in the next 50, 100, or 200 years — does not seem so alarmist in the face of other recent work."

http://e360.yale.edu/features/abrupt_sea_level_rise_realistic_greenland_antarctica


No, it does not.  Those predictions of rapid SLR this century all include the demise of the WAIS.  There is little evidence that this will occur.  Just large amounts of speculation that it could.  Other research shows that the WAIS has been quite stable over millions of years, and during warmer periods. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4742792/

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016RG000545/abstract

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/05/170505103629.htm

Other publications claim that melting could occur quite rapidly, over a thousand years!

https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/archive/wie-stabil-ist-der-westantarktische-eisschild.html

Choosing only those published reports that share your own biases does not make good science.  Neither does denigrate those who hold different opinions.  What acceleration in recent decades? 

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

Ned W

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #359 on: August 28, 2017, 07:02:53 PM »
What acceleration in recent decades?

Daniel, see here:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/07/25/sea-level-rise-has-accelerated/

For now I personally defer to the recent NOAA report on sea level rise, which suggests a plausible range of 0.3 to 2.5 meters (1 to 8 feet) by 2100.  Since people naturally tend to latch onto the most exciting and dramatic figure possible, it's important to note that the 8-foot number is an "extreme upper bound".

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf

Others may have a different opinion. 
« Last Edit: August 28, 2017, 07:16:49 PM by Ned W »

Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #360 on: August 28, 2017, 08:02:16 PM »
What acceleration in recent decades?

Daniel, see here:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/07/25/sea-level-rise-has-accelerated/

For now I personally defer to the recent NOAA report on sea level rise, which suggests a plausible range of 0.3 to 2.5 meters (1 to 8 feet) by 2100.  Since people naturally tend to latch onto the most exciting and dramatic figure possible, it's important to note that the 8-foot number is an "extreme upper bound".

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf

Others may have a different opinion.
An "extreme upper bound" I can agree with.  However, to make such claims as SLR of 6-8 m this century (as another poster to which I responded), seems rather ludicrous.  Would you not agree?  Also, I cannot agree with concatenating two separate databases to draw conclusions upon.

Ned W

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #361 on: August 28, 2017, 08:19:09 PM »
What acceleration in recent decades?

Daniel, see here:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/07/25/sea-level-rise-has-accelerated/

For now I personally defer to the recent NOAA report on sea level rise, which suggests a plausible range of 0.3 to 2.5 meters (1 to 8 feet) by 2100.  Since people naturally tend to latch onto the most exciting and dramatic figure possible, it's important to note that the 8-foot number is an "extreme upper bound".

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf

Others may have a different opinion.
An "extreme upper bound" I can agree with.  However, to make such claims as SLR of 6-8 m this century (as another poster to which I responded), seems rather ludicrous.  Would you not agree?  Also, I cannot agree with concatenating two separate databases to draw conclusions upon.
I think the person to whom you were responding (P-maker) was saying ~3 m of SLR this century; the 6-8 m thing comes from adding a (temporary) storm surge a la Superstorm Sandy on top of that.

3 m is still outside NOAA's "extreme upper bound", so it seems a bit high to me. 

I'm not sure what you mean by "concatenating two separate databases".  If you mean the Tamino link, he's not concatenating databases; he does compare the satellite and in-situ sea level data sets, but doesn't try to merge them together.  He uses the in-situ data set to demonstrate acceleration in sea level (pretty much indisputable in the longer-term in-situ data set, but not yet detectable in the satellite one as far as I know).


Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #362 on: August 28, 2017, 09:08:18 PM »
I think the person to whom you were responding (P-maker) was saying ~3 m of SLR this century; the 6-8 m thing comes from adding a (temporary) storm surge a la Superstorm Sandy on top of that.

3 m is still outside NOAA's "extreme upper bound", so it seems a bit high to me. 

I'm not sure what you mean by "concatenating two separate databases".  If you mean the Tamino link, he's not concatenating databases; he does compare the satellite and in-situ sea level data sets, but doesn't try to merge them together.  He uses the in-situ data set to demonstrate acceleration in sea level (pretty much indisputable in the longer-term in-situ data set, but not yet detectable in the satellite one as far as I know).

Once again, we agree that there is no acceleration evident in the satellite data.  There is no acceleration evident in the tidal gauge data, unless one goes back more than 75 years.  Hence, we cannot say (with confidence) that acceleration has occurred in "recent decades." 

<edit: Daniel, when quoting someone else, try to remove the chain of previous comments, and only quote the part you want to react to, like I've just done for this comment, thanks; N.>
« Last Edit: August 29, 2017, 12:00:11 PM by Neven »

Ned W

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #363 on: August 28, 2017, 09:48:51 PM »
I hear you and I don't necessarily agree or disagree (hah!) but I have wasted too much time dealing with nonsense in a different thread to pursue this one further at this time.  Maybe another day. 

That said, I completely and 100% agree with this remark of yours from a few posts back:

Choosing only those published reports that share your own biases does not make good science.  Neither does denigrate those who hold different opinions.

We should all keep those in mind.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #364 on: September 01, 2017, 01:09:21 AM »
"Severe Repetitive Loss Properties — those that have been consistently damaged and rebuilt — account for just 1 percent of policies but as much as 30 percent of the funds paid out in claims. Many of the residential properties that carry National Flood Insurance Program policies have also been “grandfathered” in, meaning that policyholders can keep paying existing rates as their flood risk increases."

Now Comes the Uncomfortable Question: Who Gets to Rebuild After Harvey?
https://theintercept.com/2017/08/30/national-flood-insurance-program-harvey-who-gets-to-rebuild/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #365 on: September 06, 2017, 04:08:45 PM »
Here’s How Climate Change Could Turn U.S. Real Estate Prices Upside Down


“With storm surge and heavy rainfall increasing and climate and sea level rise, the system is just not working,” he said. “Millions more people need flood insurance than have it and the crazy thing about Houston was only 15 percent of those who were flooded had flood insurance. The risk communication is not enough.
“You have thousands of properties in Norfolk, Annapolis, Atlantic City, Savannah, Charleston and Miami Beach where part of the property goes underwater with seawater for days at a time. When you have fish swimming in your driveway, it’s not an amenity, like a swimming pool. It means you’re driving through saltwater to get your kids to school, get to the supermarket, whatever you’re going to do.


http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-us-real-estate-prices-21720

bligh

Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #366 on: September 06, 2017, 08:05:54 PM »
Here’s How Climate Change Could Turn U.S. Real Estate Prices Upside Down


“With storm surge and heavy rainfall increasing and climate and sea level rise, the system is just not working,” he said. “Millions more people need flood insurance than have it and the crazy thing about Houston was only 15 percent of those who were flooded had flood insurance. The risk communication is not enough.
“You have thousands of properties in Norfolk, Annapolis, Atlantic City, Savannah, Charleston and Miami Beach where part of the property goes underwater with seawater for days at a time. When you have fish swimming in your driveway, it’s not an amenity, like a swimming pool. It means you’re driving through saltwater to get your kids to school, get to the supermarket, whatever you’re going to do.


http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-us-real-estate-prices-21720

bligh


All these events tend to do, is drive up the value of unaffected properties in the proximity.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-sbuildaug20-story.html

http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2015/08/new_orleans_home_prices_up_46.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/realestate/hurricane-sandy-rebuilding-jersey-shore-towns.html








TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #367 on: September 06, 2017, 09:04:24 PM »

Sink or swim financially or physically. Unaffordable or underwater, unlivable either way.  :-\
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #368 on: September 18, 2017, 09:17:34 PM »
Real estate industry blocks sea-level warnings that could crimp profits on coastal properties
[Sea level rise threatening coasts] is not good news for people who market and build waterfront houses. But real estate lobbyists aren’t going down without a fight. Some are teaming up with climate change skeptics and small government advocates to block public release of sea-level rise predictions and ensure that coastal planning is not based on them.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article173114701.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #369 on: September 19, 2017, 02:14:46 PM »
Real estate industry blocks sea-level warnings that could crimp profits on coastal properties
[Sea level rise threatening coasts] is not good news for people who market and build waterfront houses. But real estate lobbyists aren’t going down without a fight. Some are teaming up with climate change skeptics and small government advocates to block public release of sea-level rise predictions and ensure that coastal planning is not based on them.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article173114701.html

Bad news that the story has to be told.
Great news that the story is being told, locally.


Climate change "is a political agenda promoted to control every aspect of our lives", according to a plank of the 2016 Texas Republican Party.


Aprz Harvey in Houston- "Hale up. Glub Glub. Hail-pp.  We'sle build'er ratsup heer were hers alass beed. Her neffer gotch 'erself hitten afore, Ah don think?"


Wid GoAds Hailup, she woan git hit tagain.
Gim me ma money!
Lez Prey.


Terry


CalamityCountdown

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #370 on: September 19, 2017, 06:42:11 PM »
Are Caribbean Islands Uninhabitable Due to Global Warming Fueled Hurricanes?
http://calamitycountdown.blogspot.com/2017/09/are-caribbean-islands-uninhabitable-due.html

I am sort of hoping that the subject line of the above linked to blog post sparks someone to author a more thorough and authoritative article on this topic

oren

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #371 on: September 19, 2017, 07:03:49 PM »
Are Caribbean Islands Uninhabitable Due to Global Warming Fueled Hurricanes?
http://calamitycountdown.blogspot.com/2017/09/are-caribbean-islands-uninhabitable-due.html

I am sort of hoping that the subject line of the above linked to blog post sparks someone to author a more thorough and authoritative article on this topic

A few comments:
Irma and Maria are quite similar in their origin and behavior and indeed devastated Caribbean islands as Cat 5. But Harvey is a different story altogether, irrelevant to Caribbean islands, and its mention detracts from the message.
Barbuda has not been abandoned, only temporarily evacuated AFAIK. This was due to Jose threatening to hit so quickly after Irma.
The wiki page on Dominica says
In 1979, Dominica was hit directly by category 5 Hurricane David, causing widespread and extreme damage.
So 0 Cat 5 storms hitting before 2017 doesn't seem accurate, though I saw the same twitter claim elsewhere.
Finally, I do believe future Atlantic hurricanes will trend towards more "monster" cases, due to higher SSTs and more atmospheric moisture. This doesn't make Caribbean islands uninhabitable, but it does make their habitability less economical.