I am concerned some readers will think that the influence of any El Nino event (possibly in the 2014-2015 austral summer) on the ASE marine glaciers and pinned ice shelves (i.e. PIIS, and Thwaites) is primarily due to the temporary increase in the volume of warm CDW conveyed into the ASE, and that due to the relatively slow rate of sub-ice-shelf melting from an incremental increase in CDW volume, that this effect would be relatively small and short-lived. However, due to the interaction between an El Nino event and the ABSL (see following discussion of the ABSL), an El Nino event can also temporarily (multiple months, particularly from October to February) increase sea level in the ASE; which can: (a) reduce the pinning action of pinnacles; and (b) release pressurized subglacial hydrological basal water that previously had been sealed by the weight of the ice overburden at the marine glacial gateways (e.g. PIG and Thwaites); which can in-turn accelerate ice flow velocities from the marine glaciers (which could cause the residual Thwaites Ice Tongue to surge, which might shift, or displace, the pinned Thwaites Ice Tongue iceberg, discussed in my prior posts in this thread).
The following quote is from the link after the quote, gives an idea about the importance of the ABSL and the ENSO/SAM cycles to the stability of the marine glaciers and pinned ice shelves in the ASE (I recommend going to the linked website about the ABSL and looking at the whole write-up and the various PowerPoint presentations there):
"Given these relationships, a main suspected factor from an atmospheric standpoint causing the temperature and sea ice changes described above are variations in the strength and position of the ABSL. Fundamentally, the ABSL exists because the Antarctic Peninsula and the off-axis nature of the Antarctic topography dynamically influence the atmospheric flow of the region (Baines and Fraedrich 1989; Lachlan-Cope et al. 2001). Its strength is influenced by large-scale patterns of climate variability that impact Antarctica, namely the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The SAM describes the strength of the mid-to-high latitude meridional pressure gradient and circumpolar zonal winds (Thompson and Wallace 2000; Marshall 2003). Although ENSO is a tropical climate oscillation, it impacts the whole globe through teleconnections. Its impact near Antarctica is in the region of the ABSL, part of an alternating wave-train of pressure/height anomalies stemming from the Tropics during ENSO events, known as the Pacific South American pattern (Karoly 1989; Mo and Ghil 1987; Renwick and Revell 1999; Mo and Paegle, 2001; Turner 2004; Yuan 2004; Lachlan-Cope and Connolley 2006)."http://www.scalialab.com/absl/site/about.shtml
The attached image (from the following link) showing how the ABSL drives wind and associate ocean surface currents towards the ASE, which not only drives warm CDW into the ASE, but also increase sea level within the ASE which serves to destabilize the marine glaciers and the pinned ice shelves in the ASEhttp://www.scalialab.com/absl/site/presentationsFiles/zbacnik_AMS_ozone.pdf
The following website discusses how telecommunication from the Pacific South American, PSA, pattern conveys energy to the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea areas (including the ASE):http://www.sheffield.ac.uk/geography/phd/projects/teleconnection