The below post is one I made on another blog awhile back. It seemed worth bringing over here as it helps keep one's focus on what is happening out there in the real world that is a strong driver of AGW. The scale of human infrastructure and activities are often obscured by our limited individual view of the world. Seeing numbers put on issues that we all know are problems allows us to gain an understanding of how difficult it can be to alter what the current norm is. Consider the below numbers in light of the attempt to convert the vehicle fleet to electric. Note: I have edited the old post a bit so that it fits in better on the ASI Forum.
I was recently reading a series of blog posts where one poster was extolling electric vehicles and believed that before the end of this decade that production would be as high as 50% of the car market. So I decided to look into vehicle production data a bit. Some interesting points below. BTW I think he is very wrong and that we are perhaps a generation from that point. But a VAST fleet of ICE vehicles will be around for a long long time given the numbers below. This has a follow on effect on carbon emissions and complicates any changeover to an all electric fleet as one has to maintain the old infrastructure as well as build a new one. Resources will be getting scarce.
Global vehicle production data:
Numbers include cars, light commercial (SUV's, PU's, Vans and the like), heavy trucks, busses. Not included are off road vehicles, vehicles with less than 4 wheels, farm equipment and construction equipment, nor 4-wheel electric vehicles which are not capable of highway speeds (golf carts and such).
Global Production (millions) and Rate of increase
2013 ~90 7.0% (forecast)
2012 84.1 5.3%
2011 80.0 3.1%
2010 77.7 25.9%
2009 61.8 -12.4%
2008 70.5 -3.7%
2007 73.3 5.8%
2006 69.2 4.1%
China Production (millions) and Rate of increase
2012 19.3 4.6%
2011 18.4 0.4%
2010 18.3 32.4%
2009 13.8 48.3%
2008 9.3 4.7%
2007 8.9 22.0%
2006 7.2 25.9%
India Production (millions) Rate of increase
2012 4.1 5.5%
2011 3.9 10.4%
2010 3.6 34.7%
2009 2.6 13.3%
2008 2.3 3.5%
2007 2.3 11.6%
2006 2.0 24.2%
Global Fleet Total (cars, light commercial and SUV's) is estimated at approximately 1-1.1 billion. Does not include heavy trucks, off road vehicles, farm equip, construction equip and the like.
It is very difficult to find non-paywalled stats on global heavy and medium truck sales/production but a good estimate is at least 2 million per year.
Electric/hybrid global total production ever built (all years included):
as of 2013 (March)
hybrids 6.3 million
electric (plus plug-in hybrids) 180 thousand
Toyota has built 5.124 million hybrids since their introduction in 1997.
Hybrid vehicle global production data (hybrids and plugin hybrids):
2013 2.0 million (forecast)
2012 1.55 million
Electric vehicle production (includes plug-in hybrids)
2013 +100 thousand (forecast) (US about 80K sales)
2012 65 thousand
IMS forecast in 2011 that electric vehicles production would reach 16 million/yr in 2021 and would account for 16% of sales of 100 million total vehicles. I have found other forecasts for electric vehicle production ranging from 3 to 20 million/yr for 2020. There is no consensus and some forecasts include electric vehicles which are not highway speed capable that other forecasts do not include.
It is worth noting that sales of electric vehicles in the US are struggling somewhat this year and likely to be below forecasts. Research indicates that all manufacturers are losing money on electric car sales and that for vehicles like the Volt it is as much as $20K each.
It is worth noting that GM has electric cars on the test track which have triple the battery capacity of the Volt (believe Bob Wallace had a post on this). This development, if suitable for full production, would change the forecast figures a lot going forward. Hinted at for production around 2018. Time will tell.
Recent news on June US auto sales indicates that the years total will be approximately 16 million on strongly rising sales. Especially of large pickups and SUV's. GM's top 2 selling vehicles are the Silverado pickup and the Chevy Cruz (I own one of them - get near 50mpg on the highway), Ford's top seller is the F-150 pickup, and Chrysler's top 2 are the Ram pickup and the Jeep Grand Cherokee SUV. Medium and heavy truck sales in the US were projected in June at 300,000/year.
Considering that the average age of the current US fleet is 11.1 years there is a strong implication that the ICE vehicles being built now are going to be around for some time and the demand for replacement vehicles will be strong for many years. Most of those replacements are going to be other ICE vehicles for a lot longer than the 5 years the other poster mentioned. It is just really hard to cut that carbon tail. http://www.hybridcars.com/gm-rd-boss-hi
... batteries/ http://www.gnesg.com/index.php?option=c
... &Itemid=53 http://imsresearch.com/press-release/IM
... _2010_2135 http://oica.net/category/production-statistics/ http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/N