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ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1800 on: May 09, 2017, 05:15:05 AM »
The MTO map is of charging stations in place with the support of the MTO. Many other charging station have appeared. EV owners in the Ottawa area have been posting about their non-Tesla EV drives to Toronto and back and to Quebec City and back. Very slowly we are reaching a point where EV travel won't be remarkable anymore.

TerryM

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« Reply #1801 on: May 09, 2017, 05:57:13 AM »
I suppose that with home charging, an EV here would work well. My building is planning an upgrade to the underground parking structure within the next 2 years. They were very enthusiastic towards my suggestion that they wire it for heavy 240 volt service, to attract future EV users.


Many may still need reassurances about range with heaters, fog lamps, and headlights all drawing their share.
When VW's were first marketed in Canada separate petrol burning heaters were included. Chevys were built on heavier Pontiac frames, Fords became Meteors, Mercuries became Monarchs. All beefed up for the Canadian market.
Tesla may need to market a Tesla Toronto or a TT model for the north. 8)


Terry

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1802 on: May 09, 2017, 06:52:15 AM »
At the very least try to get them to install the conduit for charging at every parking spot.  Conduit is relatively cheap and best done where other big construction is done.

If the conduit is in place it's easy to pull the wire at some other date.  They might not be willing to wire every parking spot now but if they wire some portion and have the conduit in place they can quickly/easier expand charge outlets as demand grows.

Some California cities are now requiring new parking structures install conduit during construction.

Remember, if your car is plugged in you can trigger the heater (or AC) by phone and have it toasty when you climb in.  For really cold places heated seats and heated steering wheels can keep people comfortable without having to fully heat the entire cabin.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1803 on: May 09, 2017, 07:14:42 PM »
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1804 on: May 09, 2017, 07:25:30 PM »
Here's a venture capitalist, gushing about Tesla.

Tesla is a 'dangerous stock to be short,' says Social Capital CEO Palihapitiya
Quote
Tesla is a "dangerous stock to be short," Social Capital's founder and CEO, Chamath Palihapitiya, told CNBC on Tuesday.

Palihapitiya said the amount of consumer demand that the electric car company has is "unimaginable." In four years Tesla has captured a third of every luxury car, and in four quarters garnered 10 percent of every luxury SUV, he said.
...
Short interest in Tesla totaled $9.9 billion as of Tuesday, said Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of research for financial analytics firm S3 Partners, in an interview with CNBC.

Shorts have lost $3.17 billion betting against the electric car maker in 2017 so far, Dusaniwsky said.
...
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/09/social-capitals-chamath-palihapitiya-its-dangerous-to-short-tesla.html
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1805 on: May 10, 2017, 12:19:55 AM »
 Funny fake ads.  ;D

Latvian ad firm launches satirical “Stop Tesla” campaign to protect oil barons from an “oilless future”
https://electrek.co/2017/05/09/latvian-ad-firm-launches-satirical-stop-tesla-campaign-to-protect-oil-barons-from-an-oilless-future/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1806 on: May 10, 2017, 12:36:17 AM »
China’s GAC announces giant $6.5 billion electric vehicle industrial park
Quote
...It’s one of the biggest investment of its kind.

The park will be located in Guangzhou’s Panyu district on 5 square kilometers.

At the location, GAC Motor will build a new electric vehicle plant, which they expect to be completed by the end of 2018 with a total investment of 4.69 billion yuan (US$679 million)

They claim a production capacity of 200,000 units per year.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/05/09/china-gac-electric-vehicle-industrial-park/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1807 on: May 10, 2017, 01:59:26 AM »
India to make every single car electric by 2030 in bid to tackle pollution that kills millions
Quote
Every car sold in India will be powered by electricity by the year 2030, according to plans unveiled by the country’s energy minister.

The move is intended to lower the cost of importing fuel and lower costs for running vehicles.

“We are going to introduce electric vehicles in a very big way," coal and mines minister Piyush Goyal said at the Confederation of Indian Industry Annual Session 2017 in New Delhi.

Comparing the drive to a 2015 initiative in the country to reduce energy bills by promoting LED lightbulbs, he told reporters: "We are going to make electric vehicles self-sufficient... The idea is that by 2030, not a single petrol or diesel car should be sold in the country.”
...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/india-electric-cars-2030-fossil-fuel-air-pollution-piyush-goyal-climate-change-a7711381.html
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1808 on: May 10, 2017, 02:41:19 AM »
From the electrek article:

"China’s electric vehicle mandate requires automakers’ EV sales to represent at least 8% of their total sales in 2018, 10% in 2019 and 12% in 2020, which is why several automakers are announcing investments in local EV production. GM and Ford recently did, and now domestic automakers are also moving forward."

There were 507,000 Chinese EV sales in 2016 (1.5% market share) and expected to grow to 700,000 in 2017 (already 4 times that of the US and twice that of Europe), so the 8% target may be a bit too optimistic. If met, or even if it is reduced a bit (final rules coming by June most probably) it would have enormous implications across the whole auto industry supply chain given that China is the biggest car market in the world.

Quite a few of the Chinese cities have their own sizeable taxi fleets, Beijing has 70,000, many of which are now mandating a move to EV only. So that should help the numbers, also will tend to buy Chinese made vehicles. BAIC and BYD together account for 8 of the 10 top-selling EVs in China.

With this kind of scale growth, and local support, the Chinese electric car producers have the chance to become dominant players.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4044471-chinese-electric-vehicle-boom-may-soon-accelerate

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldunne/2017/02/28/china-deploys-aggressive-mandates-to-stay-no-1-in-electric-vehicles/#76cc4d306a82


Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1809 on: May 10, 2017, 08:33:47 PM »
Dubai’s Newest Police Cars Are All-Electric BMWs
But high-speed chases will be left to the Bugatti and Porsche vehicles already used by the police.
Quote
...the United Arab Emirates aims to have electric cars make up 10 percent of all government vehicles as part of a plan to reduce total carbon dioxide emissions by 15 percent by 2021.

Earlier this year, Dubai's transport authority announced a plan to buy 200 cars from luxury electric carmaker Tesla for use by the state-run taxi service. Tesla will open its first  Middle Eastern showroom in Dubai this summer, and has installed charging stations across the U.A.E.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-10/dubai-s-newest-police-cars-are-all-electric-bmws
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1810 on: May 10, 2017, 08:48:10 PM »
Buffett: Self-driving cars and trucks would certainly hurt our business
Quote
“Autonomous vehicles, widespread, would hurt us if they spread to trucks and they’d hurt our auto-insurance business,” Buffett said during Berkshire Hathaway’s Annual Shareholders Meeting.

“My personal view is [self-driving cars] will certainly come,” Buffett said. “I think they might be a long way off, but that will depend on the experience in the early months of the introduction other than test situations.”
http://snip.ly/q8yel#https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-self-driving-cars-trucks-certainly-hurt-business-151230956.html
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1811 on: May 11, 2017, 08:48:32 PM »
BMW will deploy 400 electric vehicles across the city of Hamburg in a car-sharing program
Quote
BMW has been using DriveNow, its car-sharing program, to deploy large numbers of electric vehicles quickly. They delivered 400 BMW i3 EVs in Copenhagen back in 2015.

The German automaker announced this week that it will deploy 550 electric vehicles, 400 all-electric cars and 150 plug-in hybrids, across the city of Hamburg in Germany by 2019.

They already have 70 BMW i3s and they will have 200 more by the end of the year. Since the vehicles will be delivered by 2019, they could also add the upcoming new electric Mini, which is expected to come out in 2019.

By the time BMW delivers all the vehicles, the city intends to provide a total of 1,150 charging points.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/05/11/bmw-electric-vehicles-hamburg-car-sharing/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1812 on: May 12, 2017, 01:34:41 PM »
German startup starts taking orders for slick new ~$17,000 all-electric city car
Quote
German startup e.Go Mobile AG founded by renowned engineer and RWTH Aachen University professor Günther Schuh is bringing to market an all-electric city car for just 15,900 euros (~$17,000 USD) before incentive.

They started taking orders with a 1,000 euros deposit for the vehicle this week.
There’s a case to be made for small all-electric short-range city cars. Daimler had some success with the electric Smart ForTwo and it is changing the whole Smart brand to all-electric in North America.

e.Go Mobile AG is going after a similar market with the e.Go Life.

The vehicle doesn’t offer significant range, e.Go estimates 130 km (80 miles) with the 14.4 kWh battery pack option and 170 km (105 miles) with the bigger 19.2 kWh battery pack option, but it is aimed for city driving and overall efficiency.

It weighs 1,100 kg (2425 kg) and can travel about 100 km on less than 10 kWh.

Arguably, it also looks better than the Smart...

The company has been focusing on Industry 4.0 manufacturing processes in order to achieve their 15,900 euros (~$17,000 USD) price point.

They are starting with the German market, where the $4,000 EV incentive brings down the starting price to 11,900 euros (~$13,000 USD).

By starting to take reservations with a 1,000 euros deposit this week, they are testing the market for demand.
https://electrek.co/2017/05/12/german-startup-e-go-city-all-electric-car/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1813 on: May 12, 2017, 07:02:56 PM »
A well built EV with an 80 miles range, selling for $17k should be far more than an urban car.  (I assume it has necessary speed for highways.)

That would make a great commute car for many people living in suburbs.  The average daily drive for US drivers is 35 miles.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1814 on: May 13, 2017, 01:42:20 PM »
When you simply can't imagine any other way of doing things -- there's hydrogen. :o

"There are only four hydrogen cars in Australia..."
... but let's build an industry here to refine and transport hydrogen to Japan and South Korea!  It's easy; we'll just pump it out of the ground ocean, refine it, and ship it to an overseas point of sale.  We'll make so much money!  ::)

Renewable hydrogen could fuel Australia's next export boom after CSIRO breakthrough
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-11/hydrogen-breakthrough-could-fuel-renewable-energy-export-boom/8518916
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1815 on: May 13, 2017, 06:31:55 PM »
When you are impervious to facts -- there's hydrogen.   8)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1816 on: May 14, 2017, 03:13:18 PM »
Why "subsidies" mean so much more to GM than Tesla.

Elon Musk: GM is in it for the CARB credits, will produce only 25,000 Chevy Bolts per year
Quote
As a plethora of pundits pontificate about Tesla and the hypothetical competition for its upcoming Model 3, many fall into error because they don’t understand the dynamic between Tesla, which exists to sell EVs, and the legacy automakers, which grudgingly sell a few in order to comply with government regulations.

Elon Musk is happy to explain the issue, as a stock analyst found out on the recent Q1 earnings conference call. First, Musk debunks the notion that Tesla is dependent on subsidies: “Over the years there’s been all these sort of irritating articles like Tesla survives because of government subsidies and tax credits. It drives me crazy. Here’s what those fools don’t realize…Tesla has succeeded in spite of the incentives, not because of them.”

Speaking of the California Air Resources Board’s Zero Emission Vehicle program, Musk said, “[Because] the rules are relatively weak, there are some quarters where we can’t even sell CARB credits. And when we can, it’s maybe 50 cents on a dollar or something like that, whereas the other car companies get to fully absorb the value of the CARB credit. So [that] gives GM roughly, from my count, a $7,000 to $10,000 advantage over Tesla for their Chevy Bolt…They get the full retail value of the CARB credit, whereas we get the wholesale value when we’re lucky.”

Many Tesla skeptics expect Model 3 to face stiff competition from the Chevy Bolt. However, those with more knowledge of the EV market understand that (unless there is a major change of strategy in Detroit) GM will probably produce the Bolt in limited numbers.

“The CARB credits are only effective at a production rate of about 20,000 to 30,000 vehicles a year,” explains Musk. “So that’s why you’ll see – mark my words – it’s not going to be any higher than that for the Chevy Bolt. That’s on order of 25,000 units a year, or 10% of our initial production rate for the Model 3, or 5% of what Model 3 will be next year.”

Musk is not the only one who has thrown out that 25,000-per-year prediction. A couple of years ago, when the Bolt was still in the planning stages, InsideEVs reported that “supplier sources who need significant lead time to prepare for production say they are being told that General Motors expects to sell 25,000-30,000 Bolts per year once production is underway.”
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/elon-musk-gm-is-in-it-for-the-carb-credits-will-produce-only-25000-chevy-bolts-per-year/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1817 on: May 14, 2017, 11:30:01 PM »
“Some of the senators in attendance had never learned about electric vehicles at all, making the session a crucial learning experience -- and the group has no plans to quit anytime soon.”

Washington, D.C.:  Advocacy group takes electric cars to Capitol Hill to inform lawmakers
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1110404_advocacy-group-takes-electric-cars-to-capitol-hill-to-inform-lawmakers
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1818 on: May 15, 2017, 02:01:58 PM »
Lyft and Waymo Will Collaborate on Self-Driving Car Technology
Quote
In the race to the self-driving future, Lyft has agreed to work with Waymo, the self-driving car company owned by Google's parent company, to bring autonomous vehicles to the masses, both companies told NBC News on Sunday night.

The announcement comes as Waymo has accused Lyft's biggest competitor, Uber, of stealing trade secrets from the company to advance its own self-driving operation.
...
http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/lyft-waymo-will-collaborate-self-driving-car-technology-n759386
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1819 on: May 15, 2017, 10:53:05 PM »
GM has a large investment in Lyft.  Earlier GM announced that it's working with Lyft to bring thousands of self-driving Bolts to the roads in 2018.  This could be our first fleet of robotaxis.

Next year.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1820 on: May 16, 2017, 03:51:25 AM »
Breaking news:  Ford Plans to Cut About 10% of Global Staff: WSJ
May 15, 2017, 9:30 PM EDT
Job cuts are expected to be outlined as early as this week, WSJ reports, citing unidentified people briefed on the plan.

The move comes as Ford targets $3 billion in cost cuts in 2017.

Story developing...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-16/ford-said-to-plan-to-cut-about-10-of-global-staff-wsj
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1821 on: May 16, 2017, 04:10:00 AM »
And GM is ceasing operations in Europe.

Might the big boys see a disturbance in the force ahead?

vigilius

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1822 on: May 16, 2017, 10:05:20 AM »
I got a Nissan Leaf last year (used, paid 8,000 USD for one with 25,000 miles on it) and am a very happy camper, drive 20 miles a day and have no range issues at all. I got some pushback from my Facebook friends, though, when I posted about it. There is, it seems, a lot of anti-electric car propaganda out there. Just in the last week or so I saw:

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Inconvenient-Truth-About-Electric-Vehicles.html
and
http://www.salon.com/2017/05/14/sorry-tesla-owners-but-your-electric-car/

As far as fighting back against this, some of the arguments are easy.

1.When they talk about how much carbon it put up by the manufacture of the car, I point out what a trivial point this is- EVERYTHING now made is made using mostly fossil fuels. My electric car may have been made by putting up a bunch of CO2 but as the grid grows greener, this problem goes away bit by bit. By getting an electric car I am participating in the future.
2. When they say how I am just redirecting my CO2 to a power plant when I drive, I point to the solar panels on my roof and also point out that my local grid (New Orleans) uses very little electricity from coal. Most importantly, the grid in the future will only get greener and greener but we are stuck with gasmobile emissions for the life of the car once you buy one of those.

But I have a tougher time fighting against people like "zerohedge" on oilprice.com who just pulls some numbers out of his *** about how much more natural gas it takes to charge an electric car than it would to power the car directly. This doesn't jibe with what I get from other sources like:
http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/electric-cars-green

OTOH this usually turns into just a "who do you trust" argument and I have a hard time running the numbers myself. I got inspiration, though, from reading the comment thread on the oilprice article, some people on there did a good job pointing out how selective "zerohedge" is in his use of, you know, numbers.

Hope this is appropriate to this thread, possibly this has come up before, thoughts, links, would be appreciated.

gerontocrat

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« Reply #1823 on: May 16, 2017, 11:14:32 AM »
Hullo Vigilius.

Your leaf is used. The carbon used in its construction is history.i.e. you did not cause that additional carbon.
You are investing in the new economy. Bloomberg  had a good article on how well California is doing by doing the opposite of what Trump wants.

And perhaps most importantly, no kids are going to have an asthma attack from what comes out of your leaf's tailpipe. 40,000 people die every year unnecessarily in London from air pollution. Asthma in kids is a big problem in the UK.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1824 on: May 16, 2017, 03:13:39 PM »
Congrats, Vigilius!

If you missed the report from the Union of Concerned Scientists, here's a brief article and video that uses it as a reference for the most important statistics:

‘Like Tesla’ digs into the truth behind EV ’emissions’ and its environmental impact
http://www.teslarati.com/like-tesla-ev-emissions-vs-internal-combustion-ghg/

And the full report is available here:
http://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/life-cycle-ev-emissions
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vigilius

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« Reply #1825 on: May 16, 2017, 05:05:34 PM »
When I post at nola.com it is of course a very challenging environment. OTOH I come here and WOW I find some reassurance. Thanks. I wish I could walk or bicvcle but where I live bicycling is sort like a suicide thing (southeastern USA, look it up) and besides to live close to where I work is much to expensive for me. In the meantime my used Leaf is the best I can do.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1826 on: May 16, 2017, 06:03:02 PM »
When I post at nola.com it is of course a very challenging environment. OTOH I come here and WOW I find some reassurance. Thanks. I wish I could walk or bicvcle but where I live bicycling is sort like a suicide thing (southeastern USA, look it up) and besides to live close to where I work is much to expensive for me. In the meantime my used Leaf is the best I can do.

Yes; Louisiana and its people are heavily dependent on fossil fuels for their livelihood today, so it's practically treason for them to accept anything that might replace it.  As the saying goes, it's hard for someone to believe in something when their job requires them to believe the opposite.  Keep sharing those facts -- the truth will eventually win out.  8)
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1827 on: May 16, 2017, 10:04:41 PM »
RE: carbon from car manufacturing and electricity generation.  Yes, it's too high right now.  But it's getting lower.  Since 2006 the US is getting 6% less of its electricity from fossil fuels and 6% more from wind and solar.



We'll keep increasing the amount we get from renewables and decreasing the amount from fossil fuels.  Ten years from now manufacturing an EV or ICEV will use a lot less fossil fuel electricity than now.  And charging an EV will use a lot more renewable energy and less petroleum.

Changing from FF to renewable is not something we can do overnight.  It's a transition.  And one that is speeding up.

You understand the transition.  " the grid in the future will only get greener and greener" 

Suggest you arm yourself with facts and, if you can post them, graphs.  Hammer home the point that today's grid is not tomorrow's grid and that we get to tomorrow one step at a time, over time.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1828 on: May 16, 2017, 10:08:38 PM »
Quote
I got some pushback from my Facebook friends, though, when I posted about it.

Might be interesting to make a monthly post on Facebook about how much it cost you to charge your Leaf and compare that to how much you would have spent on fuel for your ICEV.

EV skeptics are apparently watching your posts.  Some of them might start thinking about whether they might be able to save money as well.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1829 on: May 17, 2017, 05:54:55 PM »
U.S. Auto Boom Seems to Be History, Just as Trump Counted on Jobs

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/02/business/auto-sales-decline.html?smid=fb-share&_r=0

One thing to think about.....is the transition from ICE cars to electric.  That is having an effect....but right now it is a "small effect".

But more and more people can SEE that the future IS GOING TO CHANGE in transportation.  And we may slowly be finding more and more people who "want to sit on their hands and wait a while" before buying their next car.  More and more of them are thinking it will be an ELECTRIC car, and likely an electric SELF DRIVING CAR....so they are more likely to hold onto their ICE car for 1 - 3 years longer than they would otherwise....BEFORE....going back into the car market and buying an electric car.

 

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1830 on: May 17, 2017, 07:29:04 PM »
Volvo credits Tesla for creating EV demand, says they will stop developing diesel engines to focus on EVs
Quote
Today, Volvo Chief Executive Officer Hakan Samuelsson said that the current generation of diesel engines will the automaker’s last and that they will instead focus on electric vehicles.

And he gave credit to Tesla for launching demand for electric vehicles.

The Swedish automaker is aggressively pushing for its first long-range electric car to start between $35,000 and $40,000 in 2019 and it confirmed that they plan to build it in China and export it globally....
https://electrek.co/2017/05/17/volvo-tesla-says-stop-diesel-electric-vehicle/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1831 on: May 17, 2017, 07:51:49 PM »
Brief articles on the Ford downsizing:

https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/260795/ford-f-may-slash-workforce-in-north-america-and-asia-by-10


This one at least mentions EVs (but mostly as a negative):
Quote
Year-to-date, shares of Ford are down almost 10%, and have struggled to regain their footing under current CEO Mark Fields. Mr. Fields has pushed new technology investments like a $4.5 billion electric-vehicle program and an autonomous car project, two things eating away at Ford’s profit margins in the short-term despite lucrative pickup and SUV sales. Since Mr. Field became CEO in mid-2014, Ford stock has fallen almost 40%, notes the WSJ.
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/260771/heres-why-ford-is-cutting-10-of-its-global-workforce

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1832 on: May 17, 2017, 07:53:41 PM »
Possibly in response to Electrek's recent article recently recommending U.S. automakers start making electric pickup trucks...
Tesla should unveil its electric pickup truck and open reservations right away for the sake of the US auto industry
https://electrek.co/2017/05/13/tesla-electric-pickup-truck-opinion/

...Ford's CTO said he was not ruling it out:
Ford is opening the door to an all-electric F-150 pickup, but they still need a push
Quote
This week, Business Insider talked to Raj Nair, Ford’s chief technology officer, and asked him about making an all-electric version of the F-150 instead. He insisted that a hybrid version makes more sense right now, but he kept the door open for a battery-powered only version:

“I would never rule out anything like that,”
https://electrek.co/2017/05/17/ford-all-electric-f-150-pickup/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1833 on: May 18, 2017, 03:52:59 AM »
Even a single autonomous car can reduce fuel use, wear and tear, and crashes of the vehicles behind it in traffic.

Quote
...
According to a report in the MIT Technology Review, here’s what happens when the team adds just one self-driving car:

By having an autonomous vehicle control its speed intelligently when a phantom jam starts to propagate, it’s possible to reduce the amount of braking performed further back down the line. The numbers are impressive: the presence of just one autonomous car reduces the standard deviation in speed of all the cars in the jam by around 50 percent, and the number of sharp hits to the brakes is cut from around nine per vehicle for every kilometer traveled to at most 2.5—and sometimes practically zero.
...
http://247wallst.com/autos/2017/05/17/how-a-single-self-driving-car-ends-a-traffic-jam/


Are self-driving cars the solution to traffic woes? Yes, suggests a study
http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/are-self-driving-cars-the-solution-to-traffic-woes-yes-suggests-a-study-117051200693_1.html
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1834 on: May 19, 2017, 07:50:23 PM »
Stanford University Report On Rapid Adoption of Self Driving EV's
The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries


"We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport-as-a-service” (TaaS). The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions of dollars in investor value — but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth."

Report on the impacts of the possible rapid adoption of self-driving electric cars between now and 2030. Very interesting take on the possibility of a rapid move from self-owned ICE vehicles (with 4% utilization rate) to self-driving EV's (with a 40% utilization rate). Massively reduces the numbers of cars in total, which will greatly reduce materials usage,  and greatly reduces oil demand. All good for the environment.

Economically, could well cause a severe recession/depression, through the destruction of so many industrial assets, business models and careers. Even if things happen a bit more slowly than they predict, which I think may be closer to reality, this will cause economic and social mayhem. From taxi (and possibly truck) drivers, to the whole car production industry complex, retail stores and mechanics, parking garages, insurance companies ... the list is endless.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/585c3439be65942f022bbf9b/t/591a2e4be6f2e1c13df930c5/1494888038959/RethinkX+Report_051517.pdf
« Last Edit: May 19, 2017, 08:06:08 PM by rboyd »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1835 on: May 19, 2017, 08:44:28 PM »
Volvo's autonomous garbage truck follows the garbage man down the street -- in reverse.

Quote
With the new truck, the garbage man won't have to be constantly jumping in and out of the driver's seat to empty trash bins. Instead, he'll stay near the rear of the vehicle and walk down the street ahead of the truck's path as it backs up.
...
Volvo expects its method will save time, and it could also allow some garbage trucks to operate with a single human.

So, if adopted, the technology would eliminate some jobs. Many garbage trucks are currently operated by small teams. Stenqvist said thee number of garbage men needed for a given truck would depend on the density of each neighborhood. Volvo expects to learn more during testing.

Volvo expects to discover environmental benefits as well, as autonomy allows for smoother acceleration and braking. Stenqvist expects better fuel consumption and less wear and tear on the truck.
...
http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/18/technology/volvo-garbage-truck/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1836 on: May 19, 2017, 09:00:06 PM »
Startup "OSVehicle," an Italia and Silicon Valley-based company, unveils new open-source electric and self-driving car platform
Quote
...
Like TABBY, the idea is that companies could take advantage of the platform to build self-driving applications and brand the vehicle as their own.

They list the advantages of using their platform:

- For most the time to market is too long (even once we reduced it in half with TABBY EVO)
- The investments of some millions of USD is not feasible for many companies
- Customizing the vehicle is a necessity, not only for branding but also for specific features for services and advanced ones like connected car and self-driving
- Services are growing, but most transportation-related services are struggling to be sustainable financially and environmentally because they employ traditional vehicles, vehicles not designed and engineered for their specific services, that often under heavy usage breaks in less than 2 years
- Self-Driving startups are struggling with reverse engineering and to cost-effectively integrate the newest technology into the closed design of cars already in the market.
https://electrek.co/2017/05/19/startup-open-source-electric-self-driving-car-platform/
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1837 on: May 19, 2017, 09:59:13 PM »
Volvo's autonomous garbage truck follows the garbage man down the street -- in reverse.

Quote
With the new truck, the garbage man won't have to be constantly jumping in and out of the driver's seat to empty trash bins. Instead, he'll stay near the rear of the vehicle and walk down the street ahead of the truck's path as it backs up.
...
Volvo expects its method will save time, and it could also allow some garbage trucks to operate with a single human.

So, if adopted, the technology would eliminate some jobs. Many garbage trucks are currently operated by small teams. Stenqvist said thee number of garbage men needed for a given truck would depend on the density of each neighborhood. Volvo expects to learn more during testing.

Volvo expects to discover environmental benefits as well, as autonomy allows for smoother acceleration and braking. Stenqvist expects better fuel consumption and less wear and tear on the truck.
...
http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/18/technology/volvo-garbage-truck/index.html
Some cities have had one driver trucks with a driver controlled claw to pick and dump individual garbage cans for some decades. The new tech may not be a huge improvement in these cases.
Riverside California has such a system and I believe Kingman AZ. also uses this tech. Not sure how widespread it is.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1838 on: May 19, 2017, 10:33:02 PM »
Electric vehicles to cost the same as conventional cars by 2018
Quote
The cost of owning an electric car will fall to the same level as petrol-powered vehicles next year, according to bold new analysis from UBS which will send shockwaves through the automobile industry.

Experts from the investment bank’s “evidence lab” made the prediction after tearing apart one of the current generation of electric cars to examine the economics of electric vehicles (EVs). They found that costs of producing EVs were far lower than previously thought but there is still great potential to make further savings, driving down the price of electric cars.

As a result, UBS forecasts that the “total cost of consumer ownership can reach parity with combustion engines from 2018”, with this likely to happen in Europe first.

“This will create an inflexion point for demand,” the analysts said. “We raise our 2025 forecast for EV sales by ~50pc to 14.2m -  14pc of global car sales.”

If the prediction comes to pass, traditional car industry giants could face ruin. Germany’s Volkswagen Group - the world’s biggest car company - is racing to catch up with rivals’ investment levels in electric drivetrains, the components which deliver the power into the wheels, having largely ignored the technology in the past.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/19/electric-vehicles-cost-conventional-cars-2018/


(On the other hand, UBS also calculated equivalent costs for the Bolt and the Tesla Model 3 -- without, apparently, considering the vast differences between the GM Bolt's slow production line, and most of the car made by LG Chem -- and Tesla's highly automated one.)

Tesla to break even on Model 3 at $41,000, says UBS based on cost analysis of Chevy Bolt EV
Quote
...
It’s difficult because the two vehicles come from two completely different manufacturing programs.

The Chevy Bolt EV is a low volume vehicle – GM previously said that they planned about 25,000 to 30,000 units per year.  On the other hand, Tesla plans for the Model 3 to be produced at an annual rate of ~400,000 per year.

Furthermore, GM hired LG to manufacture most of the vehicle’s powertrain and electronics. LG Chem supplies the battery cells, but between its other divisions, the South Korean giant supplies all the main powertrain components, the HVAC system, and the instrument/infotainment cluster, among other things.

While Tesla also employs suppliers in its Model 3 production program, the company has integrated the manufacturing of almost its entire powertrain down to even having the battery cells produced under its own roof – though by Panasonic.

Nonetheless, UBS used its cost analysis of the Chevy Bolt EV to assess the cost of the Model 3...
https://electrek.co/2017/05/19/tesla-model-3-cost-analysis-chevy-bolt-ev-ubs
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1839 on: May 19, 2017, 10:44:02 PM »
...
Some cities have had one driver trucks with a driver controlled claw to pick and dump individual garbage cans for some decades. The new tech may not be a huge improvement in these cases.
Riverside California has such a system and I believe Kingman AZ. also uses this tech. Not sure how widespread it is.
Terry

Good point on the personnel requirements!  However, autonomous driving would be smoother than human driving, and thus less wear and tear on the vehicle.  And, autonomous driving works best if the vehicle is electric, so you would have the associated benefits of emissions (and noise!) reduction and increased energy efficiency.  Taking the next step, expect fully-autonomous garbage trucks that will pick up trash from RFID-labelled garbage cans, without human assistance....   :o
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1840 on: May 19, 2017, 11:23:36 PM »
  Taking the next step, expect fully-autonomous garbage trucks that will pick up trash from RFID-labelled garbage cans, without human assistance....   :o


I don't think that's a far in the future concept. Riverside already supplies garbage and recycling containers to individual homes. The additional cost of tagging them would be minimal and they could replace trucks piece by piece as the old units reach the end of their life cycle.
Once the truck is available, the market is there. It could happen over night. A silent service that whisks your garbage away while you sleep, and that has no health plan or retirement costs is a very easy sell.


Terry

vigilius

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1841 on: May 20, 2017, 08:31:11 AM »
Quote
Some cities have had one driver trucks with a driver controlled claw to pick and dump individual garbage cans for some decades. The new tech may not be a huge improvement in these cases.

Yeah, we have this in my subdivision, one person can run the truck whereas before there was a driver and two fellows retrieving cans from the front of the yards. OTOH they can only cover one side of the street at a time so it takes two runs through the subdivision to cover everything and the driver still has to get out part of the time when cars are parked too close to the dumpsters on the curb.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1842 on: May 20, 2017, 10:14:28 AM »
Quote
Some cities have had one driver trucks with a driver controlled claw to pick and dump individual garbage cans for some decades. The new tech may not be a huge improvement in these cases.

Yeah, we have this in my subdivision, one person can run the truck whereas before there was a driver and two fellows retrieving cans from the front of the yards. OTOH they can only cover one side of the street at a time so it takes two runs through the subdivision to cover everything and the driver still has to get out part of the time when cars are parked too close to the dumpsters on the curb.
Hadn't considered parking, the Riverside region I'm in doesn't allow on street parking. Might cause problems for self driven pick up too. I suppose when we get to EVs everyone will want to park by their charger (in their garage), and if rent a ride becomes popular the number of cars, and street parkers would be drastically cut.
I suppose our trucks now need to do both sides of the street, I'd never noticed.
Terry

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1843 on: May 20, 2017, 03:12:19 PM »
India's new tax structure classifies hybrids the same as SUV's and luxury cars, ~43% -- while all-electric vehicles are taxed at 12%!
Apparently several automakers were putting only tiny 1kwh batteries in their hybrids, to get the previous hybrid tax rate of 12.5%

GST: Highest Rate For Hybrids, Electric Vehicles Get Tax Incentive
https://www.bloombergquint.com/gst/2017/05/19/gst-highest-rate-for-hybrids-electric-vehicles-get-tax-incentive

A more detailed look at the plan:
Exclusive: India's green car plan prioritizes electric vehicles over hybrids
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-autos-policy-exclusive-idUSKBN183010

The auto industry's reaction:
GST rate on hybrid vehicles against green mobility: Auto industry
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/auto/miscellaneous/gst-rate-on-hybrid-vehicles-against-green-mobility-auto-industry/articleshow/58755408.cms
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1844 on: May 20, 2017, 09:57:43 PM »
Real-world diesel emission study shows latest standards must be applied to heavy trucks
Quote
...
The product of years of work, and with no fewer than 11 authors listed, [the study] concludes that more than half of light-duty diesel vehicles on the world's roads today emit more NOx than the legal limits.

The same applies to roughly one-third of heavy commercial vehicles, which have often been certified under far more lenient standards despite the far higher annual mileage each one covers compared to a passenger vehicle.

The summary that opens the Nature article contains the following points:

- On-road diesel vehicles produce approximately 20 percent of global anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx).

- Regulated NOx emission limits in leading markets have been progressively tightened, but current diesel vehicles emit far more NOx under real-world operating conditions than during laboratory certification testing....
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1110491_real-world-diesel-emission-study-shows-latest-standards-must-be-applied-to-heavy-trucks
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1845 on: May 21, 2017, 09:37:51 AM »
EVs hit manufacturing price parity in 2018.  (Purchase price equity might be a bit further off due to demand exceeding supply.


Quote
“We raise our 2025 forecast for EV sales by ~50pc to 14.2m -  14pc of global car sales.”

By ~2020 purchase parity is reached.  Around then most people will realize the benefits of driving an EV and probably about no one will be talking about range anxiety.

In 2025 86% of all new car buyers are going to pay more for a ICEV than for a long range EV and then pay more per mile to drive?  And end up with a less comfortable ride plus having to go to gas stations to "recharge".

What's wrong with this picture....

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1846 on: May 21, 2017, 03:41:57 PM »
EVs hit manufacturing price parity in 2018.  (Purchase price equity might be a bit further off due to demand exceeding supply.


Quote
“We raise our 2025 forecast for EV sales by ~50pc to 14.2m -  14pc of global car sales.”

By ~2020 purchase parity is reached.  Around then most people will realize the benefits of driving an EV and probably about no one will be talking about range anxiety.

In 2025 86% of all new car buyers are going to pay more for a ICEV than for a long range EV and then pay more per mile to drive?  And end up with a less comfortable ride plus having to go to gas stations to "recharge".

What's wrong with this picture....

Compared to other countries, cost-of-ownership price parity will happen later in the U.S., due to its lower gasoline and diesel prices. But the higher cost of EVs should be countered nicely by their tendency to spend a little more to get the latest tech.  Watch for a sharp vertical inflection in the adoption % "S"-curve once EVs with well over 200-mile range are available countrywide.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1847 on: May 21, 2017, 03:47:25 PM »
Trump administration puts indefinite hold on plan to measure carbon pollution from cars and trucks
Quote
President Donald Trump’s Federal Highway Administration on Friday delayed implementation of new measurements for greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles on the nation’s highway systems, a move that drew sharp criticism from environmental groups.

The greenhouse gas performance measure, included in a final rule issued by the Obama administration in January, was designed to help policymakers understand how the current transportation system is generating emissions, and how these emissions would be affected by proposed policies and investments.
...
The FHWA developed the rule over the course of a year, including a four-month comment period in which the agency received a record-breaking number of positive comments, including from many cities, metropolitan planning organizations, state transportation departments, and businesses, Lovaas said.

The FHWA, part of the Department of Transportation, plans to publish a notice of proposed rule-making in the coming weeks related to the final rule’s greenhouse gas measurement portion. The effective date of this portion of the rule will be delayed until the rule-making is completed, the agency said.
...
In comments filed during the rule-making process, NRDC said the U.S. transportation system is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and a major contributor to climate change. “Indeed, the U.S. cannot hope to meet its emissions reduction goals without action on transportation,” the NRDC said.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that in 2016, for the first time since 1979, carbon dioxide emissions from cars, trucks, and SUVs surpassed emissions from electric power plants....
https://thinkprogress.org/carbon-measurement-rule-delayed-indefinitely-3324b189dc56
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1848 on: May 21, 2017, 05:53:33 PM »
Quote
cost-of-ownership price parity will happen later in the U.S., due to its lower gasoline and diesel prices.

Cost of ownership for EVs became lower than owning an EV in the US long ago.  Gas would have to sell for about $1/gallon for ICEVs to be as cheap to drive as EVs.  Then you've got oil changes, more frequent brake rebuilds, and more mechanical repairs with ICEVs.

What's holding down the sales of EVs, IMO, is purchase price and limited range.  Purchase price of long range EVs should drop below that of ICEVs soon (perhaps delayed by high demand and low supply).

I think the car industry will be totally blown up by 2025.  Let's not forget that we will likely have a ton of self-driving robotaxis by then and those will likely all be EVs.  I've heard nothing about manufacturers delivering self-driving ICEVs.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1849 on: May 21, 2017, 09:09:14 PM »
A few years ago there were many news articles about US states creating fees for EV and ICEV cars to make up for lost gasoline taxes; EVs use the roads too, it was argued.  (I've read in the past that large trucks (semi truck-trailers) do nearly all the nornal-vehicle-use-caused damage to roads, not passenger vehicles.)

Thinking about this issue and doing a (non-Google) internet search, I read in the LA Times (2017 May 21) that California is increasing their gasoline tax:
Quote
...
The legislation, for which final details were unveiled last week, would raise the base excise tax on gasoline by 12 cents per gallon, bringing it to 30 cents. Another variable excise tax would be set at 17 cents.

The excise tax on diesel fuel would jump 20 cents per gallon and the sale tax on diesel would go up four percentage points. Electric cars would pay a $100 annual fee.

The package also creates a new, annual vehicle fee ranging from $25 for cars valued at under $5,000 to $175 for cars worth $60,000 or more.

About $34 billion of the first $52 billion would go to repairing roads, bridges, highways and culverts, with most of the money split 50-50 between state and local projects.
...
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