Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

[Sigmetnow]

One of the advantages of running two large industrial companies is that you can secure earth-moving equipment on short notice. And so, around noon on a Friday in January, an excavation crew started digging. “I was like, ‘Hey, what’s the biggest hole we can make by Sunday evening?’ ” Musk says.

Elon Musk Is Really Boring
The billionaire visionary is digging in on a tunnel project to skirt gridlock

... Musk, the chief executive of both SpaceX and the electric car company Tesla, is quite proud of this pit. He started digging as a spur-of-the-moment thing one weekend at the end of January. The idea came to him while sitting in a traffic jam early on a Saturday morning in December. “Traffic is driving me nuts,” he tweeted. “Am going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging.” Within an hour, the project had a name and a marketing platform. “It shall be called ‘The Boring Company,’ ” he wrote. “Boring, it’s what we do.” Two hours passed, and Musk tweeted again: “I am actually going to do this.” ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-02-16/elon-musk-is-really-boring

[Neven]

test

[Buddy]

As I had noted in an earlier post.....there will be countries that DON'T SELL ICE CARS by 2025 - 2030.

Looks like Norway is already "teed up" to do that:

Norway’s transportation minister says it is “realistic” that sales of new fuel-burning cars could end by 2025. EVs may win on straight economics then, but the country — and others — have been considering outright bans.

https://thinkprogress.org/norway-aims-to-end-sales-of-fuel-burning-car-by-2025-as-ev-market-soars-edeac854f1e#.3yfld3mke

"Mo" (momentum) in the non-fossil fuel space continues to pick up rapidly.  Cars, buses, semi's.....battery storage.

Sorry dirty oil......this is NOT going to be pretty.

[Sigmetnow]

U.K. Receives Final Warning From EU Over Air Pollution Levels

The U.K. has been in breach of European Union air quality laws since 2010, surpassing the annual limit just five days into 2017. England’s High Court of Justice ruled the lack of government action over the pollution was illegal in a November ruling. Smog levels were worse in London than in Beijing at times last month.
...
High pollution levels in European cities are largely caused by the proliferation of diesel-burning engines. Valued for the its wider range than gasoline-powered automobiles, tax incentives were given in the 1990s to encourage a switch to diesel engines. The 2015 Volkswagen scandal, when the automaker was caught rigging emissions tests on its diesel cars, showed that diesel fuels were significantly less green than previously thought.

Once the U.K. leaves the European Union, air-quality standards and rulings made by the Court of Justice will no longer apply. Organizations from non-profits to financial institutions are concerned that air quality and environmental priorities will worsen. ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-15/u-k-receives-final-warning-from-eu-over-air-pollution-levels

[Sigmetnow]

Mercedes-Benz starts ‘small series production’ of all-electric Urban eTruck and trials with customers

Exciting news coming out of Germany today. Mercedes-Benz announced that it started small series production of its first all-electric heavy truck, the Urban eTruck, and launched trials with customers in order to test the vehicle’s capacity on urban routes.

The company has been moving quickly on this project. After unveiling the prototype in September 2016, it’s already on the roads and in the hands of customers.

Long haul is still not ideal for electric propulsion and while some companies are working on it, like Tesla with its all-electric semi truck project and Nikola Motor with its battery/fuel cell hybrid truck, short-term applications in trucks are more likely to be successful for urban transport.

That’s what Mercedes is going for with the eTruck.

https://electrek.co/2017/02/17/mercedes-benz-etruck-production-all-electric/

There's a photo of the truck at the link, but I think that's what broke the thread, so I'll not try to post it here again. 

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla has the data to show the improved safety of cars that have its semi-autonomous driver-assist system. But some carmakers say the safest approach is to remove the driver from the loop completely.

Ford's Dozing Engineers Side With Google in Full Autonomy Push

As Ford Motor Co. has been developing self-driving cars, the U.S. automaker has started noticing a problem during test drives: Engineers monitoring the robot rides are dozing off.

Company researchers have tried to roust the engineers with bells, buzzers, warning lights, vibrating seats and shaking steering wheels. They’ve even put a second engineer in the vehicle to keep tabs on his human counterpart. No matter -- the smooth ride was just too lulling and engineers struggled to maintain “situational awareness,” said Raj Nair, Ford’s product development chief.

“These are trained engineers who are there to observe what’s happening,” Nair said in an interview. “But it’s human nature that you start trusting the vehicle more and more and that you feel you don’t need to be paying attention.”

The struggle to prevent snoozing-while-cruising has yielded a radical decision: Ford will venture to take the human out of the loop by removing the steering wheel, brake and gas pedals from its driverless cars debuting in 2021. That sets Ford apart from most automakers including Audi and General Motors Co., which believe drivers can be counted on to take the wheel if an accident is imminent. ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-17/ford-s-dozing-engineers-side-with-google-in-full-autonomy-push

[Sigmetnow]

Sources say:

GM plans to build, test thousands of self-driving Bolts in 2018 -- but not to individual customers

General Motors Co plans to deploy thousands of self-driving electric cars in test fleets in partnership with ride-sharing affiliate Lyft Inc, beginning in 2018, two sources familiar with the automaker’s plans said this week.
...
Most of the specially equipped versions of the Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicle will be used by San Francisco-based Lyft, which will test them in its ride-sharing fleet in several states, one of the sources said. GM has no immediate plans to sell the Bolt AV to individual customers, according to the source.

GM's crosstown rival Ford Motor Co has said it plans to begin building its first self-driving vehicles at a suburban Detroit plant in late 2020, for deployment in on-demand ride sharing fleets in 2021. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is providing a small number of Chrysler Pacifica minivans to Waymo, which is converting them for self-driving tests.

GM's Maven car sharing operation likely will be involved with Lyft in developing a commercial ride sharing business around self-driving vehicles such as the Bolt AV, GM executive Mike Ableson told Reuters in a November interview.

"If you assume the cost of these autonomous vehicles, the very early ones, will be six figures, there aren’t very many retail customers that are willing to go out and spend that kind of money," Ableson said. "But even at that sort of cost, with a ride sharing platform, you can build a business."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive-idUSKBN15W283

[Tor Bejnar]

Years and years ago while hitchhiking, a car started to pull off the road to pick me up, or so I initially thought.  Then I watched in horror as the person in the driver's seat looked down at her lap, with the car barreling toward me.  She looked up as the car stopped in an appropriate place (even as I'd moved further off the road) and I discovered the steering wheel was on the other side of the car from the local normal.  I hadn't noticed that the "passenger" was continuously focused on what the car was doing.   

I can just imagine my reaction the first time I come face to face with a self-driving car.

[Sigmetnow]

...
I can just imagine my reaction the first time I come face to face with a self-driving car.

If GM goes for high-volume full-autonomy using the Bolt, as quickly as 2018, it's unlikely they will take the time and money to integrate the sensors into the car the way other carmakers have.  So at least you will have plenty of visual warning.   

[Sigmetnow]

Global $20.35 Billion Automotive Electric Motors for EV Market - Forecasts and Trends 2017 - 2022

Major electric vehicle manufacturers like GM, Ford, and Toyota make electric cars that use AC electric car motors. The AC system is perfectly set to generate regenerative energy for braking as readily as it gives out energy under acceleration. A lot of energy from the battery can be recovered during the normal driving process using the AC system motors. However, the DC motors usually cost less than AC motors and are easily available.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-20-35-billion-automotive-173300915.html

[Sigmetnow]

"Automakers asking for permission to kill people"

Automakers asking for permission to kill people – Sorry for saying that in such a sharp manner, but guess what – that’s the end game of a request to lower emissions requirements. We know that efforts to lower electricity emissions in the United States – via moving from coal to gas and adding renewables – have been successful. We know that the common man is the one who bears the consequences of pollution. You are seeing a beast reach out to harm in order to feed itself during its last decade or two in life.

https://electrek.co/2017/02/22/electrek-green-energy-brief-california-talking-about-100-mexico-at-2-69¢kwh-the-residential-electric-utility-more/


Automakers have asked the new science-denying head of the EPA not to protect the environment

Automakers have officially submitted a letter asking the new head of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Scott Pruitt, to abdicate his responsibility for protecting the environment by loosening the fuel efficiency standards they agreed upon with the Obama administration in 2011.  Pruitt, who calls himself a “leading advocate against the EPA” and has spent much of his life fighting against the agency, has received over $270,000 in lifetime campaign contributions from the oil and gas industry.

The automakers claim that the 54.5mpg CAFE standard would be too costly to implement by 2025, and that consumer demand isn’t there for more efficient vehicles.

In totally unrelated news, as of three months ago, Tesla had well over half a billion dollars worth of customer deposits, most of which are for a car that nobody has even driven yet, but is significantly more efficient than the new rule requires. That car was unveiled a year ago as the biggest product launch of all time, with an unprecedented tens of thousands of customers camping out overnight or lining up early at stores worldwide to put a deposit of real, actual money down on a car they hadn’t even seen yet. Tesla’s 2014 CAFE performance was 278.9 mpg, over five times higher and eleven years earlier than the 54.5mpg 2025 target the automakers, who have much more experience than Tesla, claim they cannot possibly meet. ...

  https://electrek.co/2017/02/22/automakers-asked-science-denying-head-of-the-epa-not-to-protect-environment/

[Sigmetnow]

In the financial analyst call tonight, Elon Musk noted the Model 3 final reveal likely won't happen until production is about ready in July, and that the first cars will be going to Tesla employees so that any early problems that arise can be identified quickly and fixed.  But production volumes should ramp up quickly!

Article below discusses the Q4/2016 shareholder letter
The letter itself is available here, along with an audio file of the call: http://ir.tesla.com/events.cfm 

Tesla starts making new Model 3 prototypes, says on track for production in July and 5,000 units/week by year end

Here’s the important part about the Model 3 in the shareholders letter:

“Model 3 vehicle development, supply chain and manufacturing are on track to support volume deliveries in the second half of 2017.  In early February, we began building Model 3 prototypes as part of our ongoing testing of the vehicle design and manufacturing processes.  Initial crash test results have been positive, and all Model 3-related sourcing is on plan to support the start of production in July.  Installation of Model 3 manufacturing equipment is underway in Fremont and at Gigafactory 1, where in January, we began production of battery cells for energy storage products, which have the same form-factor as the cells that will be used in Model 3.”
...

https://electrek.co/2017/02/22/tesla-model-3-prototypes-production-crash-test/

[Sigmetnow]

Electric vehicle incentives are under attack by joint efforts from heavily subsidized oil & biofuel industries

...
While electric vehicles still only account for a small fraction of new vehicle sales, the growth and major recent investments by automakers indicate that it is about to change. Some estimates suggest that electric vehicles could account for the majority of new car sales within the next decade.

The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) and the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) obviously feel threatened by the change and it leads to odd statements like “we think we should be working to promote the longevity of the internal combustion engine,” which AFPM President Chet Thompson said this week when confirming their aligned effort with the RFA to fight EV incentives.

https://electrek.co/2017/02/24/electric-vehicle-incentives-oil-biofuel-efforts/

[Sigmetnow]

"Global Gigafactory Boom Means $100/kWh Battery Cost Milestone - When EVs Will Beat Other Cars On Cost - Is 2 Years Away. Maximum."
https://twitter.com/assaadrazzouk/status/835754409875419137

Full infographic at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

More people die from NO₂ than from terrorists.

U.K.:  Car buyers should have 'long, hard think' about diesel

...According to statistics from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), NO₂ is responsible for about 23,500 deaths in the UK each year.
...
Mr Khan has also said a £10 "toxicity charge" - which will target the most polluting older vehicles in the capital - will come into force on 23 October.

A spokesman for the Department of Transport said the government was helping to tackle air quality by providing a further £290m to support electric vehicles.

The spokesman added: "We will update our air quality plans later this year to further improve the nation's air quality." ...

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-39088631

[Sigmetnow]

Renault-Nissan Alliance announces plans for a self-driving electric car fleet for public and on-demand transportation
https://electrek.co/2017/02/27/renault-nissan-self-driving-electric-car-fleet/

Most likely in the 2020-2021 time frame.

[Sigmetnow]

Keep the truck drivers.  Just not in the truck.

Starsky Robotics Unveils a Self-Driving Truck That Could Kill Uber Subsidiary Otto
The first self-driving truck company to make truckers allies instead of enemies.

...Starsky’s first product is a robot that retrofits to existing trucks, comprised of a series of actuators to control the gas, brakes and steering. The robot uses cameras, radar and ultrasonic sensors to see, and is connected to a remote control facility from which truck drivers will take control during the first and last mile, similar to the U.S. Air Force’s facilities from which operators control drones all over the world. ...

http://www.thedrive.com/opinion/7909/starsky-robotics-unveils-a-self-driving-truck-that-could-kill-uber-subsidiary-otto

[Sigmetnow]

Beijing wants to replace its 70,000 taxis with electric vehicles to fight local air pollution

Electric cars are becoming increasingly popular with fleet operators, like taxi companies. They are attracted by gas savings and lower maintenance costs, but local governments are also seeing opportunities to reduce air pollution in city centers with important taxi presence.

Beijing, which has one of the most important taxi fleets in the world, becomes the latest municipality to announce plans to convert all its taxis to electric cars.

The transition will start this year and all new taxi registered in the region will have to be electric, according to the National Business Daily:

“All newly added or replaced taxis in the city of Beijing will be converted from gasoline to electricity, according to a draft work program on air pollution control for Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and surrounding areas in 2017.”

The municipality of over 20 million people is covered by a fleet of over 70,000 taxis. They expect that converting the entire fleet will cost about 9 billion yuan ($1.3 billion USD)....

https://electrek.co/2017/02/28/beijing-electric-taxis-air-polution/

[Sigmetnow]

San Francisco plans to require that all new buildings and parking be ‘100% electric vehicle ready’

...They want to require all new parking construction to accommodate EVs with at least 10% of the space and the rest to be “ready” to have chargers installed:

“This 100 percent EV Ready ordinance requires all new residential and commercial buildings to configure 10 percent of parking spaces to be “turnkey ready” for EV charger installation, and an additional 10 percent to be “EV flexible” for potential charging and upgrades. The remaining 80 percent of parking spaces will be “EV capable,” by ensuring conduit is run in the hardest to reach areas of a parking garage to avoid future cost barriers.”

The city expects that this approach will reduce the cost of installing an electric vehicle charger by as much as 75% versus a building/parking that wasn’t designed to be “EV ready”.

It’s a more aggressive approach than the state’s. California building codes now require 3 percent of parking spaces to be designed to serve electric vehicles...

https://electrek.co/2017/03/01/san-francisco-electric-vehicle-charging-ready/

[Sigmetnow]

EPA to reconsider vehicle fuel standards, may move against California targets

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to announce its intent to withdraw final determination on strict fuel-efficiency standards for future cars and light trucks, the latest signal by the Trump administration that it is charting a new course on climate change.

According to individuals briefed on the matter, the new administration also is considering issuing an executive order that would revoke California's ability to set its own, tighter targets for those model years. California is the only state allowed to do so under the Clean Air Act, but other states can adopt its regulations as their own.
...

Any decision to revoke California's federal waiver could spur a major legal fight, and the state has already retained former U.S. Atty. Gen. Eric H. Holder Jr. The state will "vigorously participate and defend ourselves" on setting the state's own air quality rules, California Air Resources Board Chair Mary Nichols said.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-epa-fuel-mileage-autos-20170303-story.html


My thoughts:  Although eliminating the California mandate would slow EV uptake a bit, it would, ironically, also assure the eventual bankruptcy of the three major US auto makers, who would reduce or stop their own EV development now, and have nothing to offer when the public turns to electric vehicles strongly after 2020 when EVs and ICE cars reach price parity, and noisy, dirty, require-frequent-maintenance ICE cars become the dumb-phones in a smart-phone universe.  Those companies also need to be investing now in their own battery gigafactories, if they are to make the switch.

Given the millions of jobs involved with legacy carmakers, from parts manufacturers to assembly to vehicle design and sales, it's possible The Big Three U.S. carmakers figure the government would bail them out, the same way it came to the rescue after the 2008 economic crash.  But next time, it will be different.  By that time, if they fail to innovate, they may well be seen as more like horse and buggy makers than a modern car industry.

See the table here for a look at legacy automakers' ICE-specific assets:
http://tesla.dauger.com/disrupts/incumbentsshackles.html

[Sigmetnow]

General Motors Sells Opel, Vauxhall to PSA for $2.3 Billion

General Motors has agreed to sell two loss-making car brands to a French manufacturer, a deal announced Monday that valued the businesses at $2.3 billion.

Its sale of German-based Opel and British-based Vauxhall to PSA Group would create a new regional car giant to challenge market-leader Volkswagen....

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/general-motors-agrees-sale-opel-vauxhall-psa-2-3bn-n729441


GM was supposed to sell the all-electric Bolt as an Opel in Europe, starting late 2017.  I wonder if this sale will delay that -- or perhaps it will speed it up! 
http://www.fleeteurope.com/fr/news/opel-launch-new-electric-ampera-e-2017

[Sigmetnow]

I wonder what type of heating Chinese electric cars use?  It is much more energy-efficient to use seat warmers and steering wheel heaters to keep a person warm in an EV, rather than trying to warm the entire cabin with hot air, but I imagine they are more expensive.  (ICE cars simply use waste heat from the engine, but EV's don't have this option.)  I do see after-market seat heaters for sale for Beiqi cars....

Beijing’s freezing cabbies don’t like electric cars
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2017/03/06/commentary/world-commentary/beijings-freezing-cabbies-dont-like-electric-cars/

[Sigmetnow]

In-Car heating doesn't seem to be affecting Norway EV sales!

Norway, which already boasts the world's highest number of electric cars per capita, said Monday that electric or hybrid cars represented half of new registrations in the country so far this year.

http://www.thelocal.no/20170306/norway-says-half-of-new-cars-now-electric-or-hybrid

[mati]

I think discharging batteries generate heat yes?
Or how about a plug in for electric underwear?

[Sigmetnow]

I think discharging batteries generate heat yes?
Or how about a plug in for electric underwear?

Yes, batteries in use generate heat.  Bigger batteries require a liquid-cooled system (and use heat from the electric motor to warm them in cold weather).  Smaller batteries such as in the Nissan LEAF use an air-cooled system -- but are known for losing efficiency because of it. 

Heat pumps (air conditioning run in reverse) are about four times more efficient than simply heating the cabin through resistance heating.

I'm guessing temperature control of the batteries is so critical that it can't be interrupted by the whims of human occupants;  also the location (under the floor, in most cases) doesn't lend itself to sufficient, or sufficient control of, cabin heat.

Even the LEAF, though, allows you to pre-heat (or cool) the cabin while the car is still plugged into the charger, so the car is nice and toasty (and fully charged) when you get in.  You can even schedule it remotely via an app.

http://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/electric-cars-cold-weather-temperatures

[Sigmetnow]

SK Innovation is doubling its battery production for electric vehicles to 4GWh/year to support demand from Mercedes and others

Korea-based SK Innovation announced today that it will expand its battery production capacity for electric vehicles. The company’s battery division manufactures the battery cells for the Kia Soul EV, some electric vehicles made in China, and it won a contract to supply batteries for Mercedes’ vehicles last year.

Encouraged by a strong backlog that the company claims will last 5 years, they announced two new production lines to increase their capacity to almost 4 GWh per year by the end of 2018....

https://electrek.co/2017/03/06/sk-innovation-expanding-battery/

[Sigmetnow]

GM says it will work with PSA on electric vehicles, but no word on Bolt EV/Ampera E

...As part of the €2.2 billion ($2.3 billion) transaction, GM will get warrants to purchase shares of PSA and the two automakers will collaborate on “the further deployment of electrification technologies”.

This new collaboration on electric vehicles is interesting, but the lack of information about the Chevy Bolt EV/Ampera E is more worrying.

Opel’s vehicles are based on GM’s models, but they are manufactured in Europe. The Ampera-E is a different problem since it is not only a rebranded version of the Bolt EV, but it is also built directly by GM at its Orion facility in Michigan....

https://electrek.co/2017/03/06/gm-psa-electric-vehicles-bolt-ev-ampera-e/

[Sigmetnow]

EVs in the U.K.:

Business benefits: is it take-off time for electric vehicles?

There might also be the added benefit of gaining an advantage over the competition. For example, it’s not difficult to imagine how customers who once chose a hotel on the basis of a reliable and fast Wi-Fi connection could soon be making the same kinds of decisions based on the availability of charging points for their EV.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/energy-efficiency/business-benefits-electric-vehicles/

[Sigmetnow]

I found this article, concerning a potential merger involving Fiat Chrysler, to be noteworthy mostly because of the following sentence:

"Opel’s planned sale to the maker of Peugeot and Citroen cars, announced Monday, could spur more mergers as manufacturers confront a shift to self-driving, electric cars."

This is the first time I've seen that future stated with such certainty and nonchalance in an article that wasn't from an electric car site or some new report breathlessly predicting an inevitable oil industry crash.

Fiat Predicts VW Approach as Peugeot-Opel Threat Spurs Car Deals
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-07/fiat-predicts-vw-proposal-as-opel-sale-seen-spurring-car-deals

[Sigmetnow]

At least the other big automakers pretend they'll have many EVs available Real Soon Now.  But then there's Mazda:

Mazda announced last year that they will be forced to launch an electric car in California to comply with the zero-emission mandate around 2019, but that’s the only reason they are doing it.

The Japanese automaker is one of the last few major automakers with no interest in electric vehicles and it now explained why: demand.

The company doesn’t see demand for electric vehicles. That’s what the president of Mazda France, Phillipe Geffroy, told CTV News last week:

“There is no real pressure coming from our customers for alternative fuel vehicles. Both in the US and Europe a minority of either wealthy customers, or companies willing to play the ecological image are buying EV,”...

https://electrek.co/2017/03/07/mazda-no-pressure-from-customers-to-make-electric-vehicles/

[Sigmetnow]

"We intend to be the leader of electric mobility in the U.S."

As Diesel Scandal Winds Down, Volkswagen Aims to Change the Conversation
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/diesel-scandal-winds-down-volkswagen-aims-change-conversation-n732021

[Sigmetnow]

BYD delivers a fleet of all-electric trucks to work in yards in California

All-electric trucks are less exciting than passenger cars, but they could have a great impact on emissions from transportation. While we are still a few years away from battery-powered trucks for long-distance transport, truck for short routes and urban transport are already here.

BYD just announced that it started delivering the first vehicles in a fleet of 27 electric yard and service trucks in San Bernardino and Los Angeles Counties.

The China-based company has an electric truck division based in California and they obtained a contract funded in part by the state’s cap-and-trade program to deploy electric trucks in disadvantaged communities.

They started delivering the first 4 of 27 battery-electric trucks, which includes 23 Class 8 yard trucks and four Class 5 service trucks, to operate at Daylight Transport’s facility in the City of Fontana. The rest of the fleet will go to two NSF Railway yards in San Bernardino and Los Angeles Counties.

At Daylight Transport, they are installing a 600 kW solar array and with the charging stations on-site, they will be powering their new trucks on sunlight. ...

https://electrek.co/2017/03/13/byd-all-electric-trucks-yard/

[Sigmetnow]

Behind the Quiet State-by-State Fight Over Electric Vehicles

Today, the economic incentives that have helped electric vehicles gain a toehold in America are under attack, state by state. In some states, there is a move to repeal tax credits for battery-powered vehicles or to let them expire. And in at least nine states, including liberal-leaning ones like Illinois and conservative-leaning ones like Indiana, lawmakers have introduced bills that would levy new fees on those who own electric cars.
 ...
A slowdown in the country’s shift toward battery-powered vehicles could leave the American auto market a global laggard, electric vehicle proponents warn. They say a similar situation played out a couple of decades ago, when American car companies stayed away from small cars, leaving a big opening for Japanese companies.

Sales of electric vehicles are estimated to have jumped more than 70 percent last year in China, which now has the world’s biggest market for electric cars, with about 630,000 units on the road. Canada, France and Sweden each had growth in electric vehicle sales of 50 to 70 percent in 2016, compared with the year before, according to EV Sales, which tracks global sales numbers.

A slower transition could also have big consequences for the United States’ carbon emissions.

Transportation now regularly emits more earth-warming gases into the atmosphere than any other sector, according to the federal Energy Information Administration. Last year, it overtook the electric power sector for the first time since the late 1970s. ...

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/11/business/energy-environment/electric-cars-hybrid-tax-credits.html

[rboyd]

Electric cars and trucks predominantly powered by coal and natural gas. They may give their owners a nice warm feeling but don't fix the underlying problem. They simply produce the eco-modernist charade that Business As Usual (mass individual transport and globalized supply and production networks) can continue forever.

We need to cut emissions in the rich countries by up to, or perhaps more than, 10% a year now to steer clear of disastrous climate change. That means walking, bicycles, motorcycles, trams and trains. Not cars and trucks and not multi-1000 mile salads and plastic toys, and a lot of lifestyle changes and discomfort. Elon is a very clever guy and if we had him in the 1990's perhaps would have been great. Now too late for eco-modernist driven BAU.

[sidd]

"Electric cars and trucks predominantly powered by coal and natural gas."

A citation in support of this claim would be nice.

[gerontocrat]

"Electric cars and trucks predominantly powered by coal and natural gas."

A citation in support of this claim would be nice.

Most electricity is still generated from gas oil and coal. Obviously as renewables hopefully replace fossil fuels then most will become some. Countries e.g. China are pushing EVs in urban areas in response to relieving air pollution.

Mind you you are right - to fix mankinds problems requires reduction in energy demand.

[rboyd]

For U.S. electricity generation:

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3

For Chinese electricity generation:

http://energypost.eu/chinas-electricity-mix-changing-fast-co2-emissions-may-peaked/

[sidd]

Thanks for the citations. From

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation

i see that 2/3 of generation worldwide is from fossil fuels. From

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=74&t=11

i see that we get a kilo of CO2 per kilowatt hour from coal

From
https://energy.gov/downloads/egallon-methodology

i see that a typical electric car eats about 1/3 KwH/mile. So an electric car emits about (1/3)*(2/3)*1 = 0.22 kilo CO2 per mile, neglecting transmission and charging loss

From
https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-02/documents/420f14040a.pdf/

i see that an average gasoline powered car emits 0.41 kilo CO2 per mile.

EVs dont look so bad ...

sidd

[Red]

Thanks for the citations. From

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation

i see that 2/3 of generation worldwide is from fossil fuels. From

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=74&t=11

i see that we get a kilo of CO2 per kilowatt hour from coal

From
https://energy.gov/downloads/egallon-methodology

i see that a typical electric car eats about 1/3 KwH/mile. So an electric car emits about (1/3)*(2/3)*1 = 0.22 kilo CO2 per mile, neglecting transmission and charging loss

From
https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-02/documents/420f14040a.pdf/

i see that an average gasoline powered car emits 0.41 kilo CO2 per mile.

EVs dont look so bad ...

sidd

I read somewhere awhile back that half of an auto's carbon footprint over its lifetime was in its production. Can't think it would be any lower for an EV. Personally owned vehicles for travel has to be dramatically curtailed across the board.

[gerontocrat]

Thanks for the citations. From

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation

i see that 2/3 of generation worldwide is from fossil fuels. From

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=74&t=11

i see that we get a kilo of CO2 per kilowatt hour from coal

From
https://energy.gov/downloads/egallon-methodology

i see that a typical electric car eats about 1/3 KwH/mile. So an electric car emits about (1/3)*(2/3)*1 = 0.22 kilo CO2 per mile, neglecting transmission and charging loss

From
https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-02/documents/420f14040a.pdf/

i see that an average gasoline powered car emits 0.41 kilo CO2 per mile.

EVs dont look so bad ...

sidd

I read somewhere awhile back that half of an auto's carbon footprint over its lifetime was in its production. Can't think it would be any lower for an EV. Personally owned vehicles for travel has to be dramatically curtailed across the board.

How right you are. Trouble is, our economic system depends on increasing demand and autos are an important component. The auto industry has to sell more or bankruptcy looms, banks go bust, unemployment soars. 6Hence Obama bailing out GM and others.

If average auto life increased by just one year - crash.

[Red]

Thanks for the citations. From

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation

i see that 2/3 of generation worldwide is from fossil fuels. From

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=74&t=11

i see that we get a kilo of CO2 per kilowatt hour from coal

From
https://energy.gov/downloads/egallon-methodology

i see that a typical electric car eats about 1/3 KwH/mile. So an electric car emits about (1/3)*(2/3)*1 = 0.22 kilo CO2 per mile, neglecting transmission and charging loss

From
https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-02/documents/420f14040a.pdf/

i see that an average gasoline powered car emits 0.41 kilo CO2 per mile.

EVs dont look so bad ...

sidd

I read somewhere awhile back that half of an auto's carbon footprint over its lifetime was in its production. Can't think it would be any lower for an EV. Personally owned vehicles for travel has to be dramatically curtailed across the board.

How right you are. Trouble is, our economic system depends on increasing demand and autos are an important component. The auto industry has to sell more or bankruptcy looms, banks go bust, unemployment soars. 6Hence Obama bailing out GM and others.

If average auto life increased by just one year - crash.

Yeah I know, the system is crash or crash. We have to develop a steady state economic system yesterday. This one is a benefit to the top 5% only. Unfortunately they also run the thing in such a manner as to crush any sizeable move away from it. It is the rule of lawyers not the rule of law.

[Sigmetnow]

EVs contribute slightly more emissions than gas cars – – until they get on the road. At which point the cleaner-driving EV's quickly make up the difference, and continue be cleaner for the rest of their automotive lives.   An EV also becomes cleaner as the grid becomes cleaner.  An ICE car does not improve over its lifetime.

Union of Concerned Scientists:  Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave

A life cycle analysis of EVs
All vehicles experience three distinct life stages: manufacturing, operation, and end-of-life. Each stage is linked with carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions—but those emissions differ between gas-powered cars and electric cars.

Both types of vehicle begin in much the same way. Raw materials are extracted, refined, transported, and manufactured into various components that are assembled into the car itself. Because electric cars store power in large lithium-ion batteries, which are particularly material- and energy-intensive to produce, their global warming emissions at this early stage usually exceed those of conventional vehicles. Manufacturing a mid-sized EV with an 84-mile range results in about 15 percent more emissions than manufacturing an equivalent gasoline vehicle. For larger, longer-range EVs that travel more than 250 miles per charge, the manufacturing emissions can be as much as 68 percent higher.

These differences change as soon as the cars are driven. EVs are powered by electricity, which is generally a cleaner energy source than gasoline. Battery electric cars make up for their higher manufacturing emissions within eighteen months of driving—shorter range models can offset the extra emissions within 6 months—and continue to outperform gasoline cars until the end of their lives.

http://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/life-cycle-ev-emissions

Full report here: http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/Cleaner-Cars-from-Cradle-to-Grave-full-report.pdf


Another edit:
 It's all about the energy efficiency. Some of the electricity powering EV's comes from coal and natural gas -- but EVs use that power much more efficiently than ICE cars.  EVs have about a dozen moving parts.  ICE cars have hundreds, each of which loses some power along the way.

Energy efficient.
EVs convert about 59%–62% of the electrical energy from the grid to power at the wheels. Conventional gasoline vehicles only convert about 17%–21% of the energy stored in gasoline to power at the wheels.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/evtech.shtml

[ritter]

Electric cars and trucks predominantly powered by coal and natural gas. They may give their owners a nice warm feeling but don't fix the underlying problem. They simply produce the eco-modernist charade that Business As Usual (mass individual transport and globalized supply and production networks) can continue forever.

True in many cases. But we're moving in the right direction in California. When I charge at home, I'm on 100% geothermal (voluntary upcharge available from my power provider) and so are many with PV on the roof. California has established minimum renewable energy standards for its power mix--20% by 2010, 33% by 2020, and 50% by 2030.

Now on the federal level, not sure what 45 has in mind, but I'm sure it will be regressive. 

[rboyd]

Sigmetnow: "EVs convert about 59%–62% of the electrical energy from the grid to power at the wheels. Conventional gasoline vehicles only convert about 17%–21% of the energy stored in gasoline to power at the wheels."

If I remember correctly, the average coal electricity generating station only converts about 33% of the energy stored in the coal to electricity (http://cornerstonemag.net/setting-the-benchmark-the-worlds-most-efficient-coal-fired-power-plants/), and natural gas about 44% (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/natural-gas-winning-the-race-for-energy-efficiency/article4465567/).

So wouldn't it be more accurate to calculate 62%*33%=20% and 62%*44%=27%? So nat. gas to power electric cars in the US does have some advantage over gasoline ICU cars, but not coal.

[ghoti]

The repetition of the debunked myths of coal powered electric vehicles is really tiresome.

In areas that use coal for electricity that electricity is used to refine fuel for cars. The electricity needed to produce a gallon of gasoline is roughly the same as the amount needed for an electric car to drive 25 miles. The electric car doesn't then burn the gallon of gas but ICE vehicles do. Added bonus: no NOx, PM 2.5 nor other air pollutants are emitted by electric cars.

So focus on something else please.

[Sigmetnow]

...
So wouldn't it be more accurate to calculate 62%*33%=20% and 62%*44%=27%? So nat. gas to power electric cars in the US does have some advantage over gasoline ICU cars, but not coal.

No.

Driving an EV in any region of the country produces less global warming pollution than the average new gasoline car. Even on the dirtiest U.S. regional electricity grid, EVs produce the global warming emissions equivalent of a 35 MPG gasoline vehicle—a 21 percent improvement over the new gasoline car’s average fuel economy of 29 MPG. On the cleanest electricity grids, including those covering parts of California and New York, EVs emit lower global warming emissions than a gasoline vehicle rated at more than 85 MPG. This results in the cutting of global warming emissions by 70 percent or more, compared with the average new gasoline car in these areas.

Up from just 45 percent three years ago, about 66 percent of Americans now live in regions where powering an EV on the regional electricity grid produces lower global warming emissions than a 50 MPG gasoline car. And down from 17 percent three years ago, only 12 percent of Americans now live in the lowest-rated regions, where powering an EV on the regional electricity grid produces global warming emissions similar to that of the best non-hybrid gasoline cars. Electricity grid improvements and improved EV efficiency mean several new regions of the country are now “Best” regions, including Florida and Texas. In these locales, EVs powered by the regional electricity grid do better than a 50 MPG gasoline vehicle on global warming emissions.

http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/Cleaner-Cars-from-Cradle-to-Grave-full-report.pdf

[Sigmetnow]

VW is installing ultra-fast 320 kW chargers in California as part of its $2 billion EV infrastructure plan

As part of its court settlement with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the DieselGate scandal, Volkswagen agreed to invest $2 billion in electric vehicle infrastructure in the US.

They released highlights of their plan for how to spend that money last month, but now they released the first detailed version of the plan for California, where they need to spend $800 million of the total settlement. We embedded the full plan below, but we also highlight the main points, like the fact that they want to install high-power 320 kW charging stations for electric vehicles, which is probably the biggest news.

Also, it’s important to note that it is still subject to change after review, but it gives us a good idea of what they have in mind at this point.

Through the new subsidiary called Electrify America that they set up to spend that money, the chargers will not be proprietary to VW (Combined Charging System (CCS), CHAdeMO and open protocols like Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP)). In total, they plan to install between 2000‐3000 chargers at 400+ individual stations....

https://electrek.co/2017/03/15/vw-ev-infrastructure-320-kw-charging-station/

[Sigmetnow]

U.S. cities, defying Trump, seek to dangle $10 billion order for EVs

Los Angeles began spearheading the effort for a joint electric-vehicle order during the run-up to the Paris climate accord in late 2015. The request to automakers went out earlier this year, initially with an order for 24,000 vehicles from Los Angeles, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle. Twenty-six other cities have since joined, including Boston, Denver, Kansas City and Houston.

Nearly 40 automakers, truck makers, bus makers and others have responded so far, Petersen said.

Dozens of U.S. cities are willing to buy $10 billion of electric cars and trucks to show skeptical automakers there's demand for low-emission vehicles, just as President Donald Trump seeks to review pollution standards the industry opposes.

Thirty cities including New York and Chicago jointly asked automakers for the cost and feasibility of providing 114,000 electric vehicles, including police cruisers, street sweepers and trash haulers, said Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, who is coordinating the effort. That would be comparable to about 72 percent of total U.S. plug-in sales last year.

"No matter what President Trump does or what happens in Washington, cities will continue leading the way on tackling climate change," Matt Petersen, Los Angeles's chief sustainability officer, said in an email.

http://www.autonews.com/article/20170314/OEM/303149926/cities-defying-trump-seek-to-dangle-10-billion-order-for-evs

[Sigmetnow]

Parking spots are still hot property, but ride-sharing is changing that

A parking space in Park Slope, Brooklyn, recently sold for a whopping $300,000 — more than the cost of a condo in some parts of the U.S. The jaw-dropping price tag doesn't shock experts considering the location; but with increasing interest in ride- and car-sharing, the value of such parking spaces could deflate.
...
Thanks to the rise of on-demand ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft, the need to have a car (and a parking space) is lessening even for daily commuters. A recent study by NerdWallet found that in 7 of 11 cities including New York, Washington D.C., and San Francisco, commuting to and from work using UberPool was cheaper than owning and driving a car.

"We often think that the DIY approach is going to be cheaper than paying someone for a service," noted Amy Danise of NerdWallet. "It's cheaper to fix your own faucet or paint your own dining room, but our study shows that in some cases it may not be cheaper to have a car in order to get to work."
...
"We see millennial buyers in urban areas selling their cars," said Stokes, adding that these buyers are also more open than ever to living in areas that aren't right next to a metro station.

"Five to seven years ago proximity to public transportation was paramount," said Stokes. "With ride-sharing, car-sharing, and even bike-sharing we see buyers not nearly as needing of being half a mile to a metro."

It should be noted that if you already own a parking space, but want to ditch your car, you could probably make some great money renting the space out.

"In D.C. you can cover the mortgage portion of your housing payment for the space by renting it out," said Stokes. "That's why, if it's available, we always advise buyers to buy the space: There will be value in it."

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/16/parking-spots-are-still-hot-property-but-ride-sharing-is-changing-that.html

[Sigmetnow]

Trump Can't Stop Cars From Getting More Energy-Efficient
Economics (and performance) are driving efficiency gains, as much as the EPA.

In recent years, Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards have stayed largely flat, but they did so as Americans rushed to buy SUVs and trucks. The fact that, collectively, America is still going just as far on a gallon of gas as it did a few years ago is an engineering marvel. Last year, more than half the vehicles purchased in the U.S. were trucks and SUVs, according to IHS.

Three things, in particular, have helped move the needle on mileage in those big rigs: aluminum alloys that make for lighter body panels, cylinders that shut down when they aren't needed, and turbo units, which give engines a bit more oomph only when asked, as opposed to all the time. Also helpful on the efficiency front: engines that shut off at stop lights and continuously variable transmissions.
...
Meanwhile, Trump's imperative to add U.S. production may be a far tougher trick for the auto industry than hitting efficiency goals. U.S. vehicle sales have long been in overdrive, goosed by low interest rates and increasingly generous financing terms. Now delinquencies on car loans are rising, and dealers have increased incentives to keep the metal moving.

The last time U.S. auto production outran demand, the industry had to shut dozens of factories and haul in a $70 billion government buyout before the market stabilized. Dan Luria, an analyst who has advised the United Auto Workers union, said opening new plants at the moment is "the nightmare scenario" for auto companies. ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-16/trump-can-t-stop-cars-from-getting-more-energy-efficient