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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1700 on: April 18, 2017, 10:23:11 PM »
If the hardware is already sitting in my garage, why pay for some other robot to tend the hedges.

Let's assume the attachment to your car (?) that trims your shrubbery or your robotic trimmer costs you $5k.  You use it three hours a year.  It could be trimming over 500 other people's shrubbery per year (assume 12 hour trim days, six month season).  Allow the owner 100% markup to cover business expenses and profit.  $10k / 500 = $20 per year.  You don't have to worry about keeping the blades sharp and give up garage space.

$5k in an index fund returning 8% = $400.

I actually drove a cab once and know how passengers clean up after themselves.

If you call up a robotaxi the first thing you'll want to do is to take a quick look to see if the interior is clean.  If not, punch a button on your phone and let the company know.  If you live in a city or suburb they should be able to get a clean car to you in a very few minutes.  They'll know who last used the car.  They'll have the ability to charge them for the cleanup.

You'll be sure to do a quick check because you won't want to be charged for the mess you didn't make when the next user drops a dime.

Much of the car ownership thing was about bragging rights.

You could, instead, brag about the vacation you took or the four star meal you had with the money you saved by not owning a car.  You could purchase a multi-hundred dollar purse and carry it out in front of you so that others can see the brand.  As my sister-in-law does.

When Rex is driven to the park, then walked, and cleaned up after, by your RR Deluxe, with the Doggy Do Do option, the neighbor ladies will swoon. W

You could have a Rexmobile on schedule for every morning at 7:30 so that Rex is taken for his morning ritual while you eat breakfast.  And then you could ride to the opera that evening in a robotaxi that didn't smell like Rex.

The heavily chromed hardtop convertible model that mixes frozen margaritas as you cruise the beach, then disappears and returns with a blanket, an umbrella and a box of Super Sized Condoms, will sell like hot cakes, or hot tamales depending on your local.

The heavily chromed convertible with built in bar and robo bartender will rent like hotcakes to those who are heading to the beach that day.  You could be one of them.

Other days you may call for a pickup to move your fridge.  Or a van to haul your latest IKEA treasures.  Or a multiple passenger van so that you can take your neighborhood dance troupe to the Kecak competition.  Or a robo-ride with lots of glass and an upscale audio system for your ride through the desert in bloom.

A chicken in every pot & a Rollin' Robbie in every garage.

(Invest in the companies that own the robo-rides.  Then you'll be able to afford two chickens in every pot.  And more pots. ;o)





Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1701 on: April 19, 2017, 12:31:16 AM »
When I purchase an autonomous vehicle have I purchased autonomous personalized transportation, or an autonomous personalized robot?

Some of the tasks you list will likely be performed by self-driving vehicles, but probably not the one you own.

I can see a lot of grocery shopping going online.  Getting low on milk?  Click on milk and it's added to your shopping list.  When you really need something you'll press "Order" and your list will be filled and added to the delivery vehicle heading to your neighborhood.  Same with laundry/cleaning pickup and delivery. And takeout food.  Actual times will need to be coordinated so that you meet the delivery vehicle in a timely manner.
...

Many warehouse clubs already have arrangements to "place your order online and it will be waiting for you at the loading dock when you arrive."  It's a small step from that to:  placing your Costco order, sending your autonomous car to the loading dock, getting confirmation and remotely unlocking the trunk, and having them load your order, whereupon your car returns home with the goodies.  :)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1702 on: April 19, 2017, 12:59:34 AM »
... and snowmobiles!

“All-electric propulsion is slowly but surely taking over every segment of ground transport one at a time.”

All-electric snowmobiles are coming – first tests proved successful in Whistler
https://electrek.co/2017/04/18/all-electric-snowmobiles-taiga-motors/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1703 on: April 19, 2017, 01:08:02 AM »
When I purchase an autonomous vehicle have I purchased autonomous personalized transportation, or an autonomous personalized robot?

Some of the tasks you list will likely be performed by self-driving vehicles, but probably not the one you own.

I can see a lot of grocery shopping going online.  Getting low on milk?  Click on milk and it's added to your shopping list.  When you really need something you'll press "Order" and your list will be filled and added to the delivery vehicle heading to your neighborhood.  Same with laundry/cleaning pickup and delivery. And takeout food.  Actual times will need to be coordinated so that you meet the delivery vehicle in a timely manner.
...

Many warehouse clubs already have arrangements to "place your order online and it will be waiting for you at the loading dock when you arrive."  It's a small step from that to:  placing your Costco order, sending your autonomous car to the loading dock, getting confirmation and remotely unlocking the trunk, and having them load your order, whereupon your car returns home with the goodies.  :)
And perhaps a shorter step to telling your car to order a new Wizzer from the lowest cost supplier, then bring it home.


How about a bunch of smart cars that decide amongst themselves that since Steve's RR will be heading to Costco and Bob's Tesla is off to the computer shop, they could pick up John's smart car's computer and folding chair orders and drop them to him once he's done taking Rex to the vet. Later John's car will be taking Bob's Tesla's pooch for a walk anyway.


AAAWWWKKK
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1704 on: April 19, 2017, 01:56:01 AM »
How about a bunch of smart cars that decide amongst themselves

Possible.  But my guess is that most people, after a few years, will decide that there is no advantage to them in owning a car.  They'll opt for more money in their pockets and fewer hassles.

I can see larger volume stores like Costco and grocery stores with their own fleet of delivery vehicles which pull into the warehouse, get loaded with the prepacked containers to be dropped off, and zipping off on a computer designed route.  Texting their delivery address a few minutes before they arrive. 

Smaller volume stores might use a 'UPS' generic delivery service that routes a vehicle to their site, picks up what they need to deliver, then continues along it's route picking up and dropping off stuff as it goes.  Food delivery vans might have separate compartments for hot and cold food.  Pizza delivery vans might do the cooking minutes before arrival. 


DrTskoul

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1705 on: April 19, 2017, 03:18:14 AM »
How about a bunch of smart cars that decide amongst themselves

Possible.  But my guess is that most people, after a few years, will decide that there is no advantage to them in owning a car.  They'll opt for more money in their pockets and fewer hassles.

I can see larger volume stores like Costco and grocery stores with their own fleet of delivery vehicles which pull into the warehouse, get loaded with the prepacked containers to be dropped off, and zipping off on a computer designed route.  Texting their delivery address a few minutes before they arrive. 

Smaller volume stores might use a 'UPS' generic delivery service that routes a vehicle to their site, picks up what they need to deliver, then continues along it's route picking up and dropping off stuff as it goes.  Food delivery vans might have separate compartments for hot and cold food.  Pizza delivery vans might do the cooking minutes before arrival.

That's what the 60s science fiction was all about.. predicting it for the 2000s along with flying cars...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1706 on: April 19, 2017, 05:13:40 AM »
Looks like they were about 20 years too optimistic for the self-driving car stuff.

Flying cars?  Better batteries and we might see them.  But I don't see a big need.  Perhaps some sort of low cost flying bus service to get to places where roads won't get you in a hurry.

Google says it's 57 miles from my house to the grocery store and takes about an hour and a half to drive (windy mountain road).  It probably takes a little longer than that, Google doesn't know how bad part of the road is.

Straight line, flying taxi, 34 miles.  20 minutes?  I might pay some more to fly some of the time. 

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1707 on: April 21, 2017, 04:11:31 AM »
The problem with self-driving cars, software quality:

“Nobody has a software engineering methodology today that can ensure systems perform safely in complex applications, particularly in systems with a really low tolerance for faults, such as driving,”

Being a retired software executive, I can attest to this. If google messes up your search request it doesn't get you (and others possibly) killed. The possible interactions of millions of cars, using many different software suppliers and interacting with human-driven cars, will be an incredibly complex problem to manage. Extensive use will be many, many years away and also a gift for the lawyers.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/deadly-tesla-crash-exposes-confusion-over-automated-driving/

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1708 on: April 21, 2017, 04:41:33 AM »
There was a crash when a tractor trailer turned in front of a Tesla using autopilot.  That was an autopilot system, not a self-driving system.  Drivers were suppose to serve as a backup system. 

The idea was to get a partial self-driving system (lane keeping, adaptative cruise control, and automatic braking) out and let hundreds of drivers test it in real world conditions.  This driver found a flaw in the system but through his inattention allowed it to become a fatal flaw.

Following that crash Tesla modified their sensor system. 

Tesla's plan is to put hundreds of thousands of EVs on the road for at least a year with their self-driving systems observing what drivers encounter so that Tesla can assure that they've identified as many unusual problems as possible and modify their systems prior to letting their cars drive themselves.

Tesla's can drive themselves now.  Here's a video of a Tesla driving itself. 

https://youtu.be/eAal0juXXzU

You'll notice that the person sitting in the passenger seat keeps tapping the steering wheel with his fingers.  That's a requirement that Tesla has put in their self-driving systems for now.  If the driver does not tap often enough the system turns off.  It increases the odds that the observer-rider is paying attention.

Over a year Tesla will gather data on billions of miles of driving, map most roads in the US, and find as many "turning trailer" problems as they can.

We should never expect self-driving cars to be 100% accident free.  There's always going to be a deer that leaps from behind a large rock just as the car arrives.  Or a piano that falls from snapped cable immediately in front of the car.  Or a sinkhole that opens under the car.

What we can expect is that self-driving cars will be significantly safer than human drivers.  Our odds of avoiding an accident won't fall to zero, but should fall to more than 1/10th what they are with human drivers.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1709 on: April 21, 2017, 07:31:53 AM »
Indeed, the problem with human-driven cars is the humans. With so many "human error" accidents, it is 100% certain that an automation/human combo will be better than human alone. This already works in real life today with low-level automation such as ABS, or the "rear warning" thing that beeps when my car backs up too close to another car or other object.
And it is highly probable that a pure automation system will be safer than pure human-operated, especially after enough time has passed using the combo approach.

mati

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1710 on: April 21, 2017, 02:12:27 PM »
The creation of self driving car hardware and software is complex,involving CPUs, GPUs and FPGAs, mulitple sensors (cameras, lidars, sonars, radars), self learning algorithms and sensor fusion:

http://www.nvidia.com/object/drive-px.html#source=pr

so complicated in fact that safety certification to IEC61508 and ISO26262 (safety certfication standards) will not be possible, but some new way of assessing the safety of the self driving car will have to be developed.

It will be interesting to see what the NHTSA, other automobile safety authorities and insurance companies (OH and lawyers) have to say...
and so it goes

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1711 on: April 21, 2017, 05:07:21 PM »
Insurance companies have recognized that self-driving cars and cars with collision avoidance systems are probably going to have huge impacts on their business.  I think it was State Farm who, a few years back, said that they were in the process of looking for ways to replace the auto insurance business that they expected to lose.

States (some states) seem to not be having a problem with self-driving cars being tested on their roads.  There is, and will be for a while, a requirement for a human sitting behind the wheel ready to take control if needed.

The big tell is the data that Tesla will gather over the next 1+ years as they release hundreds of thousands of EVs with self-driving systems operating 'behind' the human driver.  Tesla will be able to see if there are times that the human driver avoided an accident when the self-driving system wouldn't have and vice versa. 

The lawyers are going to make sure that the auto companies are ready to operate as self-insurers so that they can afford what accidents do happen.  No one expects 100% safety. 

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1712 on: April 21, 2017, 05:14:34 PM »
The problem with self-driving cars, software quality:

“Nobody has a software engineering methodology today that can ensure systems perform safely in complex applications, particularly in systems with a really low tolerance for faults, such as driving,”

Being a retired software executive, I can attest to this. If google messes up your search request it doesn't get you (and others possibly) killed. The possible interactions of millions of cars, using many different software suppliers and interacting with human-driven cars, will be an incredibly complex problem to manage. Extensive use will be many, many years away and also a gift for the lawyers.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/deadly-tesla-crash-exposes-confusion-over-automated-driving/

The AI does not have to be perfect. That is impossible. It only has to be better than human drivers and that is most certainly posible.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1713 on: April 21, 2017, 05:29:43 PM »
If people in general reject personal car ownership.


If self driving cars make car accidents newsworthy.


If electric cars have fewer moving (wearing) parts.


Car companies will build out the market, then most will close their doors.
Warranty work won't keep the assembly lines running. Many large markets are shrinking, and those that are expanding are the least able to afford the latest Wizzer Delux.


Many regions rely on the auto industry - there will be tremendous opposition to this change.


Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1714 on: April 21, 2017, 06:13:56 PM »
Car companies will build out the market, then most will close their doors.

Yes, I think this will happen.  I think GM bought Lyft (and possibly pulled out of Europe) because they see this coming and are planning on transitioning to a robotaxi company that builds its own taxis.


there will be tremendous opposition to this change.

Yes, but the change will happen. 

Where are yesterday's small hardwares, grocery stores, building material stores, office supply stores?  Most gone to large chain and big box stores.  And those are losing out to Amazon.

The coal industry is collapsing.  People are trying to oppose it but it's a losing battle. 

I think we're in the process of making the cost of everything almost zero.  It won't happen overnight, might take 100 years or so, but we seem to be on route where robots will build, manufacture and grow everything we need.  Including robots building those robots.

I think there's a thread here about what sort of economic system might work for distributing goods and services once human labor has no value.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1715 on: April 21, 2017, 07:00:35 PM »

I think there's a thread here about what sort of economic system might work for distributing goods and services once human labor has no value.


~95,000,000 Americans seem to already have reached the point where their labor is without value.
But you are right this is swinging OT.


At some point TPTB will decide that I've become a hazard behind the wheel, and I'll acquiesce to their demands. Until that time I'll be the aged oldster that appreciates fast flowing air through his whitened locks.  Top down, radio up, and pedal to the metal.
A Zoomer in the best sense.
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1716 on: April 21, 2017, 08:49:57 PM »
Looking at your picture (if it's you and if it's somewhat recent) I'd guess we're about the same age.

I used to love driving.  Loved sports cars (real sport cars, not Detroit four-seaters).  But the days of being able to blast along almost deserted roads are largely gone.  And age is starting to bite me in the butt.  On drives that go for five hours or more I often need to stop for a short nap.  And find driving freeways really boring.

I'm hoping that my next car will be able to drive itself.  Driving is not something I really need to do any longer and within a decade may not be able to, safely.  I'd be really fine with a robotaxi that I could just call up when I need a ride.  I don't need to have several thousand dollars tied up in a machine that sits idle 98% of the time.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1717 on: April 21, 2017, 09:54:23 PM »
Unfortunately the photo's about 10 years old, taken when when I was Peacefully Protesting Proroguing Parliament.


I'll be 71 in a few months & it was a life lived fast, and sometimes hard. I'm not doing as well as my peers here in Canada, but damn near everyone I knew in the States is pushing up daisies. Decent doctors make a huge difference, although to be fair Las Vegas had one of the worst health care systems in the Excited States, and that's where most of my compatriots died.


My father had a friend that never learned to drive. He lived ~1 mile from his business and had a cab pick him up, then drop him in the evening. Probably saved himself a fortune, but what could he spend it on that would be more fun than a daily drive? Dad said he would drive a bike to his factory, but that it wouldn't have been accepted behavior from one of the local nabobs.


I got my license at 15 and have driven everything from dirt bikes to dirt movers, sports cars to semis, and I love my time on the road.


I'd prefer taking a wheel chair to the car than walking to a cab.


Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1718 on: April 22, 2017, 03:43:30 AM »
Even turning back the EPA fuel standards in the U.S. won't save GM's global sales.  And, they are saying here that building EVs is possible for them, the opposite of what they claimed in their letter to the EPA.  ::)

GM turns to China for electric vehicle production
Matt Tsien, president of GM China, made the announcement during a news conference at the Shanghai auto show. AP reported:

“He said GM expects annual sales of 150,000 electric and hybrid cars in China by 2020 and possibly in excess of 500,000 by 2025.”
(Note that tiny [by comparison] Tesla will be making 500,000 pure EVs a year by 2018.)

In China, automakers need electric vehicles to represent at least 8% of their sales in 2018, 10% in 2019 and 12% in 2020.

Last year, GM sold almost 4 million vehicles in China, which means that if they want to follow the requirements, they will have to sell more EVs in China in 2019 alone than they have cumulatively around the world over the past decade.
https://electrek.co/2017/04/21/gm-china-all-electric-vehicle-production/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1719 on: April 22, 2017, 03:52:01 AM »
(Note that tiny [by comparison] Tesla will be making 500,000 pure EVs a year by 2018.)

Tiny Tesla's net worth is now greater than GM's.  That means that investors expect Tesla to eat GM's lunch.

If the EV-olution happens and happens rapidly I wonder how quickly the legacy car manufacturers can turn things around?  Right now they aren't building up their battery supply line.  And they've done almost nothing to solve their rapid charging problem.

DrTskoul

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1720 on: April 22, 2017, 04:11:49 AM »
(Note that tiny [by comparison] Tesla will be making 500,000 pure EVs a year by 2018.)

Tiny Tesla's net worth is now greater than GM's.  That means that investors expect Tesla to eat GM's lunch.

If the EV-olution happens and happens rapidly I wonder how quickly the legacy car manufacturers can turn things around?  Right now they aren't building up their battery supply line.  And they've done almost nothing to solve their rapid charging problem.

Tesla will eat GM's lunch?...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1721 on: April 22, 2017, 04:31:20 AM »
Here's what I think will happen over the next decade.

EV batteries will continue to fall in price until it will be cheaper to purchase a long range EV than to buy an ICEV.  Operating costs will obviously be better.  Comfort and convenience will help drive the market to EVs.

Self-driving will be perfected.  That will create fleets of robotaxis. The result will be a major decrease in car ownership.  Ownership could easily fall by 50%.    Possibly closer to 75%.  That will mean a great collapse for ICEV manufacturers.

If Tesla continues on the route it is now on they will have the best brand name in the world.  They'll have the cars, the charging system, the self-driving technology.  Tesla will be building "into" the market.  Large manufacturers like GM will be rapidly downsizing and probably will have a lot of debt to service with very diminished revenue.

I expect several car manufacturers to have their own "Kodak moment" in which they don't shift technology rapidly enough and get left holding the bag.

That's what I'm guessing the future to look at right now.  Of course conditions change so we won't be sure how things will play out until they do.

Must be that another bunch of people have a story something like mine.  Tesla now has a higher net worth (based on stock prices).  Someone's betting heavily on Tesla. 



TerryM

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« Reply #1722 on: April 22, 2017, 04:59:54 AM »
Wasn't AOL worth more than just about everything in the market at one point?


Not to negate your point, but the market can be fickle.


Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1723 on: April 22, 2017, 05:34:13 AM »
I don't recall AOL's history but, yes, the future is hard to predict.  That's why I don't buy individual stock.

Web service companies can get killed off pretty much overnight.  Remember MySpace? 

Tesla certainly could fall on its butt at some point.  But so far they've had an impressive run. 

TerryM

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« Reply #1724 on: April 22, 2017, 06:08:33 AM »
AOL Bought Time Warner for $165B, then reality set in.


I don't carry individual stocks & I limit my exposure to the market to <5% of my net. A friend invests in collectible cars and laughs at the rest of us. If I was still willing to work at making money it's something I'd look into.


Musk is on a roll, but high flyers often singe their wings.


Terry

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1725 on: April 22, 2017, 10:18:59 PM »
Nortel made telecommunications equipment - a darling of the .com bubble.

"At their peak, in August of 2000, Nortel shares hit $124.5, or $1,245 a share after factoring in the company's 10:1 stock consolidation." Huge weighting on the Toronto Stock Exchange. In 2009 they were worth $0.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/streetwise/its-official-nortel-shares-are-worthless/article786961/

Cisco survived, its share price is still well below the bubble days. The industry didn't go away, the companies were simply way overvalued, and/or were not truly competitive business models.

Tesla has not been tested, as it keeps living on new debt and equity injections. If it stumbles badly, that liquidity could dry up very rapidly. Also, still a tiny output of cars supplied to a niche market.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1726 on: April 22, 2017, 10:33:35 PM »
Should Tesla indeed deliver 500k cars in 2018, or something close to that, all will be well. I am keeping my fingers crossed. But should they fail hard, I am afraid of a major reversal in the drive towards EVs, and potentially a long delay. The traditional automakers might be very happy to give this a quiet burial. A lot is hanging on Tesla and Musk here, which is why I am worried by Musk's seeming dispersion into various ventures which are possibly draining money and increasing the overall risk.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1727 on: April 22, 2017, 11:56:42 PM »
When Tesla looks in their rear view mirror they see no one gaining on them.  Nissan and GM are way back behind and showing no significant acceleration.

If we look at the failure of Blackberry, MySpace, and pre-Google browsers we see someone coming to market with a superior product at a comparable price and the previous King of the Mountain wasn't able to adapt fast enough.

Toyota has just announced that they will have a long range EV ready by 2020.  They have not yet talked about battery source, rapid charging systems, or self-driving capability.  GM has a 200 mile EV but not the battery supply train to allow 500,000 vehicles per year nor a way to rapidly charge their EVs.

If the giants are willing to toss some major money into EVs then they probably could catch up with Tesla in a few years.  But I see no sign that that's being considered.  And I see no sign that many of the smaller manufacturers are considering making bold moves.

I worry a little bit about Musk having too many ongoing projects but I suspect he's very good at monitoring his projects.  And I assume he's pretty good at picking the people who actually run each project.  I hope he doesn't overextend.

I suspect Musk has an advantage over other companies in all his fields.  Tesla, SpaceX and the others are highly innovative and fast moving.  That attracts talent.  Who wants to work for NASA which hardly has a space program any longer when SpaceX is launching, landing and recovering first stage rockets and is on the way to Mars with people?  What person who is in the EV area wants to work for a traditional car company where most of the effort goes into ICEVs when Tesla is ripping off into the cutting edge?

Bright, competent people want to work where stuff is happening.  Where innovation thrives.  Who wants to spend their days designing a window for the 2018 Gasmobile?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1728 on: Today at 04:23:11 PM »
This chapter of the "Tesla Disrupts Different" paper examines the billions of dollars of assets that traditional automakers have tied up in ICE vehicles -- which would be worthless the moment they publicly acknowledged ICE is dead.  Which is why they cannot quickly switch to EV's, even if they wanted to.

Tesla Disrupts Different
Why Tesla's Selective Dominance is Inevitable
http://tesla.dauger.com/disrupts/incumbentsshackles.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1729 on: Today at 04:28:43 PM »
“Herbert Diess, the global VW brand boss, has said the maker will no longer offer diesel models in the U.S.”

Volkswagen Slapped With Largest Ever Fine for Automakers
A federal judge in Detroit Friday signed off on what could be one of the last big developments in the Volkswagen diesel emissions scandal, ordering the German maker to pay a $2.8 billion criminal penalty negotiated as part of a settlement with the U.S. Justice Department last January.

The ruling now brings to around $30 billion the costs VW will incur after being caught rigging two of its diesel engines to pass U.S. emissions tests — a figure that includes the price of buying back almost 500,000 vehicles sold in the country. Meanwhile, seven current and former Volkswagen employees have been charged with crimes connected to the scandal, while an investigation continues in Germany.
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The scam was apparently launched when Volkswagen engineers failed to come up with an effective technical solution that would allow them to deliver diesel vehicles that were both quick and fuel-efficient while also meeting tough emissions standards.
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http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/judge-approves-largest-fine-u-s-history-volkswagen-n749406
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1730 on: Today at 07:03:24 PM »
This chapter of the "Tesla Disrupts Different" paper examines the billions of dollars of assets that traditional automakers have tied up in ICE vehicles -- which would be worthless the moment they publicly acknowledged ICE is dead.  Which is why they cannot quickly switch to EV's, even if they wanted to.

Tesla Disrupts Different
Why Tesla's Selective Dominance is Inevitable
http://tesla.dauger.com/disrupts/incumbentsshackles.html


If Tesla is right those investments are approaching "worthless" now.  There will still be some revenue, but it will shrink and not grow.

Failure to launch into a strong EV program is risking the rest of the company.  Robotaxis may cut demand by 50%  or more.  In addition to the impact of robotaxis demand for new vehicles will likely be lowered because EVs should have a longer lifespan and collision avoidance systems will greatly lower the number of cars that are destroyed before they are worn out.

Tesla, I suspect, will expand as much as they feel the market will support.  Nissan and Renault seem to be willing to go all EV if demand continues to grow.  I get the feeling that VW is about to start their move.  Any company that doesn't start moving fast risks being left out and going out of business.