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Csnavywx

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1950 on: June 14, 2017, 08:35:33 AM »
;D

Elon Musk: People betting against Tesla 'want us to die so bad they can taste it'
• Tesla shares are up 70 percent year-to-date
• Tesla stock rises, while Ford and GM shares languish
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/08/elon-musk-investors-shorting-tesla-want-us-to-die-so-bad-they-can-taste-it.html

The Investopedia article:  http://www.investopedia.com/news/more-bets-against-tesla-any-other-company-tsla-bac/

I wish him the best of luck, I really do. It's gonna be tough to turn a profit on those vehicles with the slim-to-negative (in some cases) margins they're posting. Probably going to be a few years until that happens (at the least). His ability to raise money is excellent, so as long as the investors don't lose confidence with some bad quarters and dilution, they'll stay on board. The problem I see is this wildly overvalued stock price. It's outrageous even for a Silicon Valley viewpoint. It was up almost 5% again today. It's totally disconnected from the fundamentals at this point (at a valuation of over 62B) that I think it's bound to be hit by a correction at some point.

One could realistically argue that the auto industry in general is in a bubble in this country, but that's a discussion for a later time.

numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1951 on: June 14, 2017, 03:04:13 PM »
Assuming a P/E ratio of 20 (pretty standard), the market cap suggests a company with 3.5 billion a year in profit.

The expected capacity of the gigafactory is 150 GWh of batteries per year. At $100/kWh, that's $15 billion a year in sales. The profit margin they need just on the batteries, just on the one factory, is thus a pretty standard 20-25%.

Tesla also is building several more factories, which will allow it to weather even lower prices and maintain its valuation, plus they have this side business in building cars.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1952 on: June 14, 2017, 05:06:07 PM »
Quote
It's gonna be tough to turn a profit on those vehicles with the slim-to-negative (in some cases) margins they're posting.

Tesla has one of the very highest Gross Profit Margins in the car industry.  Porsche is the only company that I know of that sells its cars for a larger margin.

https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/gross_profit_margin

Compare with Toyota...

https://ycharts.com/companies/TM/gross_profit_margin

Tesla, the company, has a negative bottom line for two reasons.  1) Some non-manufacturing costs such as R&D and corporate expenses are spread over a small (<100k) cars manufactured per year, and 2) Tesla is spending like crazy on expansion. 

Tesla is building factories in order that they can manufacture 500,000 units per year within a couple of years.  That additional volume will spread the fixed costs much thinner.

In addition to manufacturing cars Tesla is bringing solar roofs and storage to market.  They're releasing a new, much more affordable EV this year.  They're getting ready to release a battery powered 18-wheel tractor in a few months.  They're building the largest battery factory in the world.  They are doubling the number of their Superchargers in this year.   Lots of money is being invested in future profits and their market price reflects this growth.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1953 on: June 14, 2017, 05:13:45 PM »
Quote
One could realistically argue that the auto industry in general is in a bubble in this country, but that's a discussion for a later time.

One we've discussed here multiple times.  If the 'futurists' among us are right we're about to see a huge decrease in the number of cars manufactured per year. 

There are already self-driving cars working as taxis.  Currently they require a human sitting at the wheel, ready to take over if something goes wrong.  But within a couple of years it is expected that the human will not be needed.  At that point we should have autonomous "robotaxis" which means that cars will be able to work more hours of the day, eliminating the need for the majority of our cars.

A number of car manufacturers are likely to fail as manufacturing activity deflates.

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1954 on: June 14, 2017, 07:34:47 PM »
The Tesla gross profit margin is not comparable to other car manufacturers, as it is calculated on a very different basis. On any realistic analysis they are losing money per car. Either they manage to ramp up production rapidly, and meet acceptable quality standards for a mass market car, or they will flame out. The next couple of years will prove either way.

PS I own Tesla stock, more on a technical chart basis than a fundamental one.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1955 on: June 14, 2017, 07:51:20 PM »
Quote
it is calculated on a very different basis

Please describe the difference.

rboyd

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« Reply #1956 on: June 14, 2017, 08:08:59 PM »
A relatively balanced look at things, lots of detail in the link.

"Conclusion

Tesla's gross margin without R&D is comparable to that of its competitors [i.e. not higher than Ford etc.].

Tesla's SG&A per revenue is higher than that of other car manufacturers and just about wipes out gross profits even before R&D is taken into account.

As yet there is no indication of economies of scale being at play in spite of increased production. When revenues grow, SG&A expenses grow at the same pace. Going forward, Tesla has to improve its operating costs in order to have room for R&D expenses without incurring losses or even to reach the R&D levels of competitors, let alone the elevated levels that Tesla needs to develop its planned new models.

Based on past performance, it seems inevitable that in order to finance its expansion Tesla will have to incur either more debt or emit more shares. It will not come from revenues and gross margin."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4075701-tesla-closer-look-margins-profitability

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1957 on: June 14, 2017, 08:13:25 PM »
Now that it's getting close to the July Model 3 launch, and Musk claims in a recent financial conference call that everything seems to be on track, more financial analysts see a rosier picture for Tesla.  (I know, I know: some financial analysts are idiots.  Still, it's interesting to see the turnaround.....  :) )

Quote
Alexander Haissl went from a bearish price target to a rather bullish one, raising the target to $464 from $193. This is now officially the highest analyst price target in the Thomson Reuters universe.
...
If these targets sound high, a fund manager named Ron Baron appeared on CNBC on the same morning. His take is that Tesla shares could reach $500 to $600 in 2018. He even threw out a $1,000 price potential in 2020. At that point, he thinks Tesla could be generating $70 billion in annual sales and $10 billion in operating profits.
http://247wallst.com/autos/2017/06/13/tesla-scores-mega-bull-analyst-call/

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/13/ron-baron-says-tesla-stock-will-soar-to-1000-by-2020.html

- - - -

There's a new biggest Tesla bull on Wall Street: Analyst sees nearly 30% rally in 12 months
Quote
Berenberg decided to use the pullback to raise its price target for Tesla to the highest on Wall Street, saying the car maker will dominate the electric vehicle market in the coming decade.

The firm also upgraded its rating on the company to buy from hold.

Big automobile companies' "complacency about electric vehicle (EV) technology is worse than perceived," analyst Alexander Haissl wrote in a note to clients Monday. "With no clear pathway to high-volume EV production for these OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] before the mid-2020s, Tesla will be given a near-monopolistic opportunity to gain market share and outcompete the incumbent automotive industry."

Tesla is one of the best-performing stocks in the market this year. The company's shares are up 68 percent year to date compared with the S&P 500's 8.5 percent return.

The analyst raised his price target for Tesla to $464 from $193. The new target represents 29 percent upside from Tesla's Monday close. He now has the highest price target on the company out of 19 analysts, according to FactSet.

Haissl estimated Tesla will invest nearly $33 billion in its electric vehicle business over the next five years, which will be 40 percent more than Daimler and Volkswagen combined, according to his analysis.

He also predicts the company's "best-in-class cost base and production processes" will enable Tesla to generate profit per vehicle more than 50 percent higher than its competitors.

"Tesla's disruptive potential encompasses the vehicle, the entire production process and the product-to-market strategy. Once the business reaches scale, the cash generation potential is significantly superior to existing premium OEMs," he wrote.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/13/wall-street-analyst-sees-nearly-30-percent-tesla-rally-in-12-months.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1958 on: June 14, 2017, 08:20:23 PM »
Other big Tesla news:
Quote
In a jolt for the electric car industry, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has awarded the 2017 Tesla Model X five-star crash safety ratings in every category, the highest score the federal agency can award.
It's the only SUV (gas or electric) to have done so.  Most gas SUVs get points deducted on the rollover test, because they are top-heavy, but the heavy battery on the floor of the Model X makes it next to impossible to flip.  Neither Tesla's nor NHTSA's tests flipped the car.

http://247wallst.com/investing/2017/06/13/tesla-suv-gets-5-star-crash-safety-ratings-from-nhtsa-jolting-industry/

Test details:
Tesla Model X officially becomes highest safety rated SUV (by significant margin) with 5-star rating in every safety category
https://electrek.co/2017/06/13/tesla-model-x-5-star-safety-rating-nhtsa/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1959 on: June 14, 2017, 08:57:51 PM »
A relatively balanced look at things, lots of detail in the link.

"Conclusion

Tesla's gross margin without R&D is comparable to that of its competitors [i.e. not higher than Ford etc.].

Tesla's SG&A per revenue is higher than that of other car manufacturers and just about wipes out gross profits even before R&D is taken into account.

As yet there is no indication of economies of scale being at play in spite of increased production. When revenues grow, SG&A expenses grow at the same pace. Going forward, Tesla has to improve its operating costs in order to have room for R&D expenses without incurring losses or even to reach the R&D levels of competitors, let alone the elevated levels that Tesla needs to develop its planned new models.

Based on past performance, it seems inevitable that in order to finance its expansion Tesla will have to incur either more debt or emit more shares. It will not come from revenues and gross margin."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4075701-tesla-closer-look-margins-profitability

Gross profit and Gross Profit Margin are two different things.  I dealt with both in my post.

SG&A - selling, general and administrative costs are not part of GPM.  Tesla has higher selling costs than other car manufacturers because Tesla sells direct to the public rather than selling to dealers who then add their costs and profits to the car. 

General and administrative costs are, as I said, spread over less than 100k cars per year while Ford manufacturers over 6 million.

R&D costs.  Let's look at a graph from your link -






Equalizing GPM by including R&D costs shows  Tesla profitable.  The issue earlier was whether Tesla was making a profit by manufacturing cars.  They are.

Looking closely we see that Tesla is spending a lot more on R&D (green bars) than other car companies.  Surprise!  Tesla is revolutionizing the car industry.  Gotta spend money to do that. 

Looking at Tesla's GPM with R&D included Tesla drops lower than the other car companies shown.  That's not surprising.  Tesla is selling far fewer cars.  But that is about to change and those R&D costs per car will drop.  By about 80% within two years.

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1960 on: June 14, 2017, 09:23:55 PM »
The next year or so will prove one view correct - Tesla soars or Tesla crashes back to earth. Its all about actual net profit, which should soar if Tesla's business model works.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1961 on: June 14, 2017, 11:28:36 PM »
The next year or so will prove one view correct - Tesla soars or Tesla crashes back to earth. Its all about actual net profit, which should soar if Tesla's business model works.

”Forward-looking statement”  :) : Musk said that once at full production, he expects the Model 3 to generate around $20 billion in revenue per year for Tesla with $5 billion in gross profit (or 25% gross margin).

(That's at the 500,000 cars per year rate, which is expected in 2018.)

https://electrek.co/2016/07/26/tesla-model-3-elon-musk-generating-20-billion-revenue-25-gross-margin-tsla/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1962 on: June 14, 2017, 11:37:41 PM »
Not sure about the "first" claim -- were the others hybrids? or just not in California? -- but:

First all-electric garbage truck in California
Quote
The city [of Sacramento] expects to save 6,000 gallons of fuel per year with the vehicle. They already deployed the new vehicle in Chicago – pictured [below].
https://electrek.co/2017/06/14/all-electric-garbage-truck-california/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1963 on: June 15, 2017, 12:17:21 AM »
Ford wins contract to make 2,500 all-electric vans for Deutsche Post
Quote
Ford has won an important contract to further electrify Deutsche Post’s fleet of delivery vehicles.

Deutsche Post has already been deploying electric vehicles in its fleet, but this new contract should quickly add 2,500 all-electric vans on the roads.
They will use the chassis of the Ford Transit, which will be equipped with a new battery-electric powertrain.

Ford had already announced plans for a plug-in hybrid version of the Ford Transit for 2019, but it looks like this new contract is changing the plan by using an all-electric version built on the same chassis.

Production is set to start next month and expected to be completed by the end of 2018.
...
While it’s a custom commercial vehicle, it looks like it will officially be Ford’s next all-electric vehicle since its next passenger all-electric vehicle is not planned to hit production before 2020.
https://electrek.co/2017/06/14/ford-all-electric-vans-deutsche-post/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1964 on: June 15, 2017, 03:46:14 AM »
Funds from California cap-and-trade program support purchase of 10 electric buses and solar charging stations
Quote
California will use $9.5 million from California Climate Investments (CCI), the state’s cap-and-trade program, to bring 10 battery-electric buses and supporting infrastructure to serve disadvantaged communities in the south San Joaquin Valley city of Porterville.

In addition to the buses, the project includes charging stations and solar panels. Southern California Edison will support the installation of the infrastructure and provide special rates for high-voltage bus charging....
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/funds-from-california-cap-and-trade-program-support-purchase-of-10-electric-buses-and-solar-charging-stations/
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ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1965 on: June 15, 2017, 04:03:41 AM »
The next year or so will prove one view correct - Tesla soars or Tesla crashes back to earth. Its all about actual net profit, which should soar if Tesla's business model works.

I guess the Bloomberg analyst has a different view of Tesla's future...

http://gas2.org/2017/06/14/analysts-predict-tesla-may-soon-near-monopoly-market-electric-cars/

rboyd

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« Reply #1966 on: June 15, 2017, 06:38:24 AM »
The analysts are from Berenberg - an small German investment company, not Bloomberg.

ghoti

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« Reply #1967 on: June 15, 2017, 03:31:32 PM »
The analysts are from Berenberg - an small German investment company, not Bloomberg.
Oh oops! I misread the source. Same point though - amateur analyst on Seeking Alpha or small investment firm, or analyst from a big name firm all have proven terrible records at forecasting the future on average. I personally trust Bob's analysis at least as much as theirs.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1968 on: June 15, 2017, 05:19:53 PM »
The analysts are from Berenberg - an small German investment company, not Bloomberg.
Oh oops! I misread the source. Same point though - amateur analyst on Seeking Alpha or small investment firm, or analyst from a big name firm all have proven terrible records at forecasting the future on average. I personally trust Bob's analysis at least as much as theirs.

One has to be very cautious using articles from Seeking Alpha as a considerable number seem to be written in order to drive stock prices up or down so the author (or someone backing the author) can make money off the price swing.

The only author on SA that I highly trust is Randy Carlson who has written some very insightful articles about Tesla.  He's been able to reason out Tesla's approach to creating a more affordable EV (Model 3) well before Tesla made the information public.

I've read articles by other authors that are packed full of obvious lies.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1969 on: June 15, 2017, 07:55:23 PM »
The world’s largest electric Plus Energy vehicle is being constructed in Lommis

http://www.edumper.eu/index.php/en/news.html

Quote
What sounds like a perpetual motion machine is gradually becoming a reality. The innovative concept of the prototype, backed by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy, is that the Komatsu 605 HD, converted in Switzerland, will not use diesel fuel or emit any CO2 during the twenty or so trips it makes each day. Instead, the 110-tonne machine generates electricity on the laden downhill run, which is stored in the largest battery ever installed in a vehicle. Some of this energy is used to power it unladen back up to the extraction area, with the surplus fed into the grid overnight.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1970 on: June 15, 2017, 09:22:45 PM »
The world’s largest electric Plus Energy vehicle is being constructed in Lommis

http://www.edumper.eu/index.php/en/news.html

Quote
What sounds like a perpetual motion machine is gradually becoming a reality. The innovative concept of the prototype, backed by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy, is that the Komatsu 605 HD, converted in Switzerland, will not use diesel fuel or emit any CO2 during the twenty or so trips it makes each day. Instead, the 110-tonne machine generates electricity on the laden downhill run, which is stored in the largest battery ever installed in a vehicle. Some of this energy is used to power it unladen back up to the extraction area, with the surplus fed into the grid overnight.

Regenerative braking writ large.  Cool! 

Side note:  EVs today automatically reduce or even eliminate regenerative braking when the battery is nearly full, so as to not overcharge the battery.  This can cause some consternation to an EV driver accustomed to "one pedal driving"!
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1971 on: June 15, 2017, 10:02:48 PM »
Will Tesla Do to Cars What Apple Did to Smartphones?

A pretty balanced and interesting view on the future of cars, and Tesla.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/tesla-future-of-driving/523224/

rboyd

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« Reply #1972 on: June 16, 2017, 01:29:21 AM »
A new instalment of the naked capitalism Uber series - Can Uber Ever Deliver? Part Ten: The Uber Death Watch Begins

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/06/can-uber-ever-deliver-part-ten-uber-death-watch-begins.html

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1973 on: June 16, 2017, 03:42:34 AM »
Quote
Side note:  EVs today automatically reduce or even eliminate regenerative braking when the battery is nearly full, so as to not overcharge the battery.  This can cause some consternation to an EV driver accustomed to "one pedal driving"!

That can be engineered out.  If the batteries are full then apply mechanical braking electronically is a regen braking mimicking mode.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1974 on: June 16, 2017, 09:50:15 PM »
Tesla vs state of Michigan...
Quote
Michigan is the most populated state in the US that still doesn’t have a Tesla store or service center. It’s not for lack of trying on Tesla’s part. The company has been trying to obtain a dealer license, but a 2014 law prohibiting direct sales from automakers has been preventing them.

Their latest attempt has been through the court since they filed a lawsuit against the state last year after claiming that the ban on direct sales violates commerce laws and that it was pushed by car dealers and GM.

As part of the discovery for the suit, Tesla is trying to force two lawmakers to turn over any communication with car dealer and automaker lobbyists, but the state is trying to prevent that. And the reason they are giving is almost incriminating.
...
The two lawmakers targeted by Tesla’s subpoenas are Sen. Joe Hune, R-Gregory,  and Rep. Jason Sheppard, R-Lambertville.

Hune is the senator who introduced the last-minute amendment that created the ban in 2014 and his wife, Marcia Hune, is a lobbyist for car dealerships.

As for Sheppard, he is being subpoenaed because Tesla claimed that he confirmed to one of their representatives that the reason behind the ban is that “Michigan auto dealers and manufacturers don’t want Tesla in Michigan”.
...

Quote
Update: Judge ruled this morning that they will have to produce all 3rd party communications regarding Tesla and the legislation.
https://electrek.co/2017/06/16/tesla-michigan-dealer-lawsuit/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1975 on: June 16, 2017, 10:02:41 PM »
Tesla vehicles arrive by the hundred in Dubai as the first store/service center is about to open
https://electrek.co/2017/06/16/tesla-dubai-store-service/

 Article includes a fun little video showing what an autonomous (Tesla! :) ) taxi experience might be like.
"By 2030, 25% of Dubai's transportation will be autonomous."
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1976 on: June 16, 2017, 10:25:22 PM »
Will Tesla Do to Cars What Apple Did to Smartphones?

A pretty balanced and interesting view on the future of cars, and Tesla.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/tesla-future-of-driving/523224/

The obligatory Tesla-fan response to the (#12) Navigant autonomous driving ranking mentioned by The Atlantic can be found in the comments on the Electrek article linked below. :P ;D  The study's criteria just might have been preselected to purposely favor the old, established car companies. >:(  ::)

https://electrek.co/2017/04/04/tesla-gm-ford-autonomous-driving-leaderboard/
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1977 on: June 16, 2017, 11:52:25 PM »
Quote
The study's criteria just might have been preselected to purposely favor the old, established car companies

It is a strange list.  Let me borrow the breakdown from someone else's comment....

Quote
Based on the following criteria Tesla should rank as a leader of the pack:
- vision [pushing the entire market forward]
- go-to market strategy [embed full capability in all products]
- production strategy [leverage silent learning on full fleet of vehicles]
- product capability [continuously improving with over the air updates]
- product quality and reliability [one of the most advanced systems on the market]

Tesla is taking a risk in this area:
- technology [taking a risk by relying on cameras and radar instead of lidar, risky, but it may save a bundle of money while eliminating the dorky roof-top button]

Tesla is likely dead-last in all the remaining criteria:
- partners [Tesla is developing the platform in house and on its own]
- sales, marketing, and distribution [Tesla has the smallest footprint with no independent dealers]
- product portfolio [Tesla only makes two, soon to be three, vehicles]
- staying power [Tesla is the youngest company in the chart]

Tesla is already shipping the hardware and software for autonomous driving in every car it produces.  Is anyone else?

Tesla already has tens of thousands of driver owned cars mapping the world's roads.  Does anyone else have a fleet of mapping (and beta testing) cars larger than a few dozen?

Tesla had the vision to jump the 'few test cars' stage and go big.  And to skip expensive lidar and go with cheaper sensors.

Partners?  Why is that important? 

Distribution?  Tesla is already distributing.

Sales and marketing?  Seems like Tesla is doing fine.  Tesla has full control over their sales and marketing.

This study looks about as objective as a political poll that asks "So, who do you prefer for mayor.  The wonderful, handsome, intelligent, and civic minded Jonathan Doe or his opponent (who might be, for all we know a child molestor) Jackson Row?


Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1978 on: June 16, 2017, 11:55:07 PM »
And I just got an email from Tesla -
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Autopilot Updates

We just released the latest version of Autopilot. You can now experience Enhanced Autopilot features including Traffic-Aware Cruise Control, Autosteer, Auto Lane Change, Parallel + Perpendicular Autopark, and Summon. Automatic Emergency Braking, Forward + Side Collision Warning, and more advanced safety features are also active and standard.

All Tesla vehicles have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver. And Tesla vehicles continue to improve with over-the-air software updates, introducing new features and improving existing functionality to make your vehicle safer and more capable over time.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1979 on: June 19, 2017, 03:58:10 PM »
"This is how fast charging stations of @Fastned are currently used during the day. Fast charging matches the solar curve quite well."
https://twitter.com/rolandvanderput/status/876022810388443136
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1980 on: June 19, 2017, 06:41:40 PM »
Shows how vitally important the income from ICE car servicing is to car dealers in the U.S.

Some Smart car dealers are considering stopping sales due to the brand going all-electric
Quote
Earlier this year, Daimler announced that it is converting the Smart brand to all-electric in North America and discontinuing gas-powered Smart cars.

By September, Canadian and American dealerships will stop receiving gas-powered Smart cars and the 2017 electric smart model year cars will become the only options.

We now learn that the move is facing some opposition with its dealer network as Smart car dealers are now considering stopping sales of the vehicles and going service-only.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/06/19/smart-car-dealers-going-all-electric/
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1981 on: June 19, 2017, 07:14:54 PM »
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Auto supplier Robert Bosch GmbH will build a 1 billion-euro ($1.1 billion) semiconductor plant, the biggest single investment in its history, as the maker of brakes and engines prepares for a surge in demand for components used in self-driving vehicles.

The factory in Dresden, Germany will start producing chips needed for autonomous vehicles, smart homes and Internet-linked city infrastructure in 2021, the world’s biggest car-parts supplier said Monday in a statement. It’ll employ as many as 700 workers once construction is complete in 2019.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-19/bosch-to-build-1-1-billion-chip-plant-for-self-driving-cars

Another sign that self-driving cars are coming soon.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1982 on: June 19, 2017, 07:55:39 PM »
“As is evident in Figure 11, the number of publicly available charging stations [in the U.S.] has grown rapidly since 2011. For comparison, there are approximately 112,000 individual gasoline stations covering all 50 states and the District of Columbia (U.S. Census Bureau, 2015).”
https://electrek.co/2017/06/19/us-electric-vehicle-charging-stations/
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1983 on: June 19, 2017, 08:41:15 PM »
“As is evident in Figure 11, the number of publicly available charging stations [in the U.S.] has grown rapidly since 2011. For comparison, there are approximately 112,000 individual gasoline stations covering all 50 states and the District of Columbia (U.S. Census Bureau, 2015).”
https://electrek.co/2017/06/19/us-electric-vehicle-charging-stations/

Many/most of those charge outlets are essentially worthless.  They're low output, slow chargers.  Only good for getting you the last few miles home if  you've forgotten to charge.

What needs to be monitored is the number of rapid chargers.  Which is mostly Tesla Superchargers at this point. 

BTW, Tesla is doubling their number of Superchargers from EOY 2016 to EOY 2017.  I'd expect that rate to pump up in 2018 as Model 3s start flowing out of the factory.

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« Reply #1984 on: June 19, 2017, 09:38:58 PM »
U.S. states could not set self-driving car rules under Republican plan
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California and other states would be barred from setting their own rules governing design and testing of self-driving cars, while federal regulators would be blocked from demanding pre-market approval for autonomous vehicle technology, according to a U.S. House Republican proposal reviewed by Reuters on Thursday.

The draft legislation, while far from becoming law, still represents a victory for General Motors Co, Alphabet Inc, Tesla Inc and other automakers and technology companies seeking to persuade Congress and the Trump administration to pre-empt rules under consideration in California, New York and other states that could limit deployment of self-driving vehicles.

The industry also opposed an Obama administration proposal last year that raised the possibility of giving regulators the power to review and approve self-driving car technology before it was put into service, similar to the vetting by Federal Aviation Administration of new technology for aircraft.

The 45-page draft package of 14 bills would designate the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration as the lead agency for regulating self-driving cars, pre-empting state rules.
...
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-selfdriving-idUSKBN1962YV
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1985 on: June 19, 2017, 10:07:56 PM »
Tesla is ‘actively talking to other automakers’ about opening up its Supercharger network, says CTO JB Straubel
https://electrek.co/2017/06/19/tesla-supercharger-sharing-automakers/

No other production EV today can handle the high charge rate of a Tesla supercharger.  Plus, given the overcrowding at many supercharger stations... this might make the most sense if the network is opened up only to low-volume (high-priced) EVs from other companies, for now.
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TerryM

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« Reply #1986 on: June 20, 2017, 05:01:33 AM »
Tesla is ‘actively talking to other automakers’ about opening up its Supercharger network, says CTO JB Straubel
https://electrek.co/2017/06/19/tesla-supercharger-sharing-automakers/

No other production EV today can handle the high charge rate of a Tesla supercharger.  Plus, given the overcrowding at many supercharger stations... this might make the most sense if the network is opened up only to low-volume (high-priced) EVs from other companies, for now.


A self driving, robotic car wash system cruising the lot, as well as automated "Drive In" food and drink service, might make for a more productive and pleasurable wait.


How about a mobile charging station that simply charges all the cars parked in the lot', in the order that they arrived, possibly with an automated car wash included? No lines, no rush to move to and from a charging station + your car is washed, waxed & ready for the road ahead. :)


Terry

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« Reply #1987 on: June 20, 2017, 07:10:40 AM »
Better that you car drops you off where you want to eat, shop, watch a movie, whatever then takes itself off for a charge or wash.

Push the 'Come get me' button as you pay the check and your ride will be waiting right outside the door.

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« Reply #1988 on: June 20, 2017, 08:39:36 AM »
Better that you car drops you off where you want to eat, shop, watch a movie, whatever then takes itself off for a charge or wash.

Push the 'Come get me' button as you pay the check and your ride will be waiting right outside the door.


Undoubtedly true in the long term, but before driverless cars are ubiquitous the electrics will be needing a charge. More efficient charging is essential without self driving capabilities, but even autonomous vehicles would benefit from a fast, efficient, robotic vehicle that could roll down a line of parked vehicles, changing and washing each one in turn.
Perhaps at some point we will call for a charge while parked at work, while shopping or while visiting the dentist. An autonomous charging vehicle will be dispatched, charge up half a dozen cars, then return to top off it's own very large battery.


Terry

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« Reply #1989 on: June 20, 2017, 03:44:47 PM »
The Uber option....

Lyft says all of its self-driving electric cars will be powered by ‘100% renewable energy’
Quote
Lyft likes to set lofty goals for itself. Last year, one of the ride-hail company’s founders went on record predicting that “a majority” of Lyft’s trips will be in self-driving cars by 2021. Now Lyft says it wants to be less of a pollutant, too. The company is setting a goal for itself that all of the electric, autonomous vehicles on its platform will be powered by “100% renewable energy.”

Recently, Lyft announced that it was partnering with self-driving startup NuTonomy to deploy a fleet of autonomous, electric vehicles in Boston later this year for public trials. Lyft will purchase renewable energy certificates to offset any emissions from the fueling of its electric autonomous vehicles, a company spokesperson said. Lyft is also predicting that by 2025, Lyft will provide 1 billion rides per year using electric, autonomous vehicles.
...
https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/15/15811484/lyft-climate-change-goals-self-driving-cars-renewable
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1990 on: June 20, 2017, 04:32:28 PM »
Billions of dollars of gasoline-car assets must be abandoned in order for the big car manufacturers to switch to building EVs.  Abandoning a planned ICE car factory might be one way to start.  Also, the "Made in America" line seems to have lost some of its luster.

Ford to Save $1 Billion Building Focus in China Instead of Mexico
Quote
Ford Motor Co. is canceling controversial plans to build the Focus small car in Mexico, saving $1 billion by ending North American production entirely and importing the model mostly from China after next year.

The U.S. automaker will start making the next-generation Focus in China from the second half of 2019, a year after output ends at one of its plants in Michigan. Ford’s savings will come from canceling plans to assemble the car at an existing factory in Mexico and a decision made in January to abort construction of a plant in Mexico.
...
“We’ve done a lot of research and consumers care a lot more about the quality and the value than they do about the sourcing location,” Joe Hinrichs, Ford’s president of global operations, said in a conference call with reporters Tuesday. “iPhones are produced in China, for example, and people don’t really talk about it.”
...
“China gets a lot of attention, we’ll see how this plays out,” Hinrichs said in response to a question about possible criticism of the move from Trump. “But we believe this is a much better plan for our business globally. And it frees up from the original plan about $1 billion of capital that we can reinvest in the business, including exciting things that we’re working on in autonomy and electrification and a lot of that work is done right here in the U.S.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-20/ford-to-save-1-billion-making-focus-in-china-instead-of-mexico
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« Reply #1991 on: June 20, 2017, 09:12:23 PM »
Better that you car drops you off where you want to eat, shop, watch a movie, whatever then takes itself off for a charge or wash.

Push the 'Come get me' button as you pay the check and your ride will be waiting right outside the door.


Undoubtedly true in the long term, but before driverless cars are ubiquitous the electrics will be needing a charge. More efficient charging is essential without self driving capabilities, but even autonomous vehicles would benefit from a fast, efficient, robotic vehicle that could roll down a line of parked vehicles, changing and washing each one in turn.
Perhaps at some point we will call for a charge while parked at work, while shopping or while visiting the dentist. An autonomous charging vehicle will be dispatched, charge up half a dozen cars, then return to top off it's own very large battery.


Terry

Tesla EVs should be self driving within two years.  Tesla already has  a self connecting/disconnect charge cable (the Snake).   I don't think other EVs will be far behind with self-driving.  GM apparently already has almost self driving Bolts.

Your robo charger washer would need to carry enough batteries and water to charge/wash more than a couple of cars or it would spend lots of its time scurrying back home for a refill.  (And capturing the wastewater would be an issue.)  (And there's the problem of messing up surrounding cars on a windy day.)

Better to transport Mohammad to the mountain than the mountain to Mohammed.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1992 on: June 20, 2017, 09:15:28 PM »
The Uber option....

Lyft says all of its self-driving electric cars will be powered by ‘100% renewable energy’
Quote
Lyft likes to set lofty goals for itself. Last year, one of the ride-hail company’s founders went on record predicting that “a majority” of Lyft’s trips will be in self-driving cars by 2021. Now Lyft says it wants to be less of a pollutant, too. The company is setting a goal for itself that all of the electric, autonomous vehicles on its platform will be powered by “100% renewable energy.”

Recently, Lyft announced that it was partnering with self-driving startup NuTonomy to deploy a fleet of autonomous, electric vehicles in Boston later this year for public trials. Lyft will purchase renewable energy certificates to offset any emissions from the fueling of its electric autonomous vehicles, a company spokesperson said. Lyft is also predicting that by 2025, Lyft will provide 1 billion rides per year using electric, autonomous vehicles.
...
https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/15/15811484/lyft-climate-change-goals-self-driving-cars-renewable

GM has a big financial interest in Lyft.  I expect a lot of Lyft's fleet will be from GM.

And have you heard of any company developing self driving ICEVs?  I haven't.  I'm not sure it would make sense to tool up a new self-driving ICEV model when future sales could be very low.

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« Reply #1993 on: June 20, 2017, 09:19:38 PM »
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And it frees up from the original plan about $1 billion of capital that we can reinvest in the business, including exciting things that we’re working on in autonomy and electrification.

The hits keep coming.

Interestingly Detroit seems to be "getting it"  and Tokyo not this time around.  Wonder if we might see some ranking changes happen over the next 5 to 10 years.


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« Reply #1994 on: June 20, 2017, 10:54:46 PM »
Very interesting that the Chinese, and now the US, manufacturers seem to be getting it. Why the Japanese should be such laggards is an interesting question.

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« Reply #1995 on: June 21, 2017, 01:20:46 AM »
Very interesting that the Chinese, and now the US, manufacturers seem to be getting it. Why the Japanese should be such laggards is an interesting question.

I've never heard a definitive reason but I think Japan got derailed over the discovery of large amounts of methyl hydrates just offshore.  There was a lot of talk about Japan becoming energy independent by sucking up the slush and using the hydrogen.

And I'm guessing that the tendency to 'follow the leader' made it less likely for people to introduce the problems with selling FCEVs to the rest of the world even if Japanese drivers fell in love with them.  (Which they seem to not have done.)

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« Reply #1996 on: June 21, 2017, 09:38:17 PM »
Workhorse exec talks details, strategy behind its Plug-In Electric W-15 pickup

"What makes us special is we’re not going after an all-electric vehicle – like, say, a Tesla, where they’re looking at that larger-volume consumer product that uses an all-electric system,” LaFleur said. “We feel like the niche we’re going after is a perfect fit for our range-extended design – a range-extender generator, instead of trying to do everything all-electric. And it gives us the ability to get a price point and get the cost of the truck down so we can compete at that $52,500 level."

Interesting concept for a commercial truck, production scheduled for late 2018. 5,000 pre-orders to date. Will be electric powered for the vast majority of the time, given the usage of commercial trucks. Then gas powered when a longer journey is required.

https://electrek.co/2017/06/02/workhorse-w-15/

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« Reply #1997 on: June 21, 2017, 11:25:39 PM »
Workhorse exec talks details, strategy behind its Plug-In Electric W-15 pickup

"What makes us special is we’re not going after an all-electric vehicle – like, say, a Tesla, where they’re looking at that larger-volume consumer product that uses an all-electric system,” LaFleur said. “We feel like the niche we’re going after is a perfect fit for our range-extended design – a range-extender generator, instead of trying to do everything all-electric. And it gives us the ability to get a price point and get the cost of the truck down so we can compete at that $52,500 level."

Interesting concept for a commercial truck, production scheduled for late 2018. 5,000 pre-orders to date. Will be electric powered for the vast majority of the time, given the usage of commercial trucks. Then gas powered when a longer journey is required.

https://electrek.co/2017/06/02/workhorse-w-15/

I'll be surprised if anyone is building a PHEV ten years from now.  Batteries are likely to make it much cheaper to build an all battery powered truck.  And there will be plenty of places to get a rapid charge if one is needed.

But the Workhorse is welcomed.  It will tech a lot of people what it's like to run on electricity.

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« Reply #1998 on: June 22, 2017, 12:12:54 AM »
Very interesting that the Chinese, and now the US, manufacturers seem to be getting it. Why the Japanese should be such laggards is an interesting question.

I've never heard a definitive reason but I think Japan got derailed over the discovery of large amounts of methyl hydrates just offshore.  There was a lot of talk about Japan becoming energy independent by sucking up the slush and using the hydrogen.

And I'm guessing that the tendency to 'follow the leader' made it less likely for people to introduce the problems with selling FCEVs to the rest of the world even if Japanese drivers fell in love with them.  (Which they seem to not have done.)

Japan may have been striving for options that did not involve additional strain on the power grid at a time when electricity generation was at a premium -- after they closed, with much public support, most of their nuclear power plants after the Fukushima disaster.
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« Reply #1999 on: June 22, 2017, 12:16:05 AM »
A new bill to make gas stations install electric car chargers introduced in the UK
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A new “Automated and Electric Vehicles Bill” is being introduced by the government in the UK in the Queen’s Speech.

It includes some interesting measures, including mandatory installations of electric car chargers at motorway services and gas stations.

Similar initiatives have been proposed elsewhere, like in Russia, while gas stations have also started adding electric car charging stations without any mandate, like Tesla Superchargers at QuickCheck gas stations or Shell’s initiative to had chargers to its own gas stations.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/06/21/electric-car-charging-gas-stations-uk/
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