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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2000 on: June 22, 2017, 08:15:58 PM »
Oh, the irony!  8)

Former gas-guzzing Hummer factory in Indiana to become an electric car factory under Chinese company SF Motors
https://electrek.co/2017/06/22/former-hummer-factory-electric-car-sf-motors/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2001 on: June 22, 2017, 08:22:59 PM »
Tesla wants to produce cars in China, to supply that major market while avoiding heavy import duties.

Tesla confirms working with Shanghai Government to establish a manufacturing facility in the region
Quote
“Tesla is working with the Shanghai Municipal Government to explore the possibility of establishing a manufacturing facility in the region to serve the Chinese market. As we have said before, we expect to more clearly define our plans for production in China by the end of the year. Tesla is deeply committed to the Chinese market, and we continue to evaluate potential manufacturing sites around the globe to serve the local markets. While we expect most of our production to remain in the US, we do need to establish local factories to ensure affordability for the markets they serve.”
https://electrek.co/2017/06/22/tesla-factory-shanghai-china/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2002 on: June 24, 2017, 07:59:20 PM »
U.S. overall car sales remain low in June.  I bet EVs will continue their increase, however!  SAAR = Seaonally Adjusted Annual Rate.

“June 2017 would represent the fourth month in a row under 17 million SAAR, the longest period since a six-month streak from September 2014 through February 2015. After a record year of sales in 2016 and seven consecutive year-over-year sales increases, Kelley Blue Book’s forecast for 2017 calls for sales in the range of 16.8 million to 17.3 million units, which represents a 1 to 4 percent decrease from last year.”
New Car Sales Expected to Drop in June, but Volkswagen Will Surge
http://247wallst.com/autos/2017/06/24/new-car-sales-expected-to-drop-in-june-but-volkswagen-will-surge/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2003 on: June 25, 2017, 02:47:17 AM »
Not a surprise....

China's road-straddling bus bites the dust
Quote
China's futuristic elevated bus will soon be a thing of the past.

Workers in the northern Chinese city of Qinhuangdao tore out the tracks for the road-straddling vehicle with jackhammers and shovels this week.

They're cleaning up the mess left behind by a project that caught global attention last summer when video emerged of the 26-foot-wide bus cruising over the top of cars during a test run.

Billed as a potential answer to China's crippling traffic problems, the vehicle instead became the source of bottlenecks in Qinhuangdao. Cars traveling in both directions had to crowd together on the other side of the road to avoid the barely used tracks and idle bus.
...
http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/23/news/china-elevated-bus-teb-tracks-removed/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2004 on: June 25, 2017, 01:48:28 PM »
U.S. and Canadian auto plants are seeing major layoffs and extended plant closures.

Automakers Are Making Production Cuts Faster Than at Any Time Since the Recession
Quote
...
The downturn reflects several factors, noted analyst Joe Phillippi, of Autofacts Consulting. The Malibu, for example, has fallen victim to the dramatic shift from sedans and other passenger vehicles to SUVs, crossovers and pickups. Light trucks, on the whole, now account for nearly two-thirds of total new vehicle sales in the U.S., a figure some believe could still rise another 5 percentage points before leveling off.
...
By shifting resources from cars to light trucks, automakers hope to keep consumers spending and buoy sales. Industry officials also insist that they can handily weather a dip that still keeps sales in the 17 million range. That’s a far cry from the sub-10 million low point hit during the last recession.

Nonetheless, with the auto industry struggling to maintain momentum, any other hit could prove doubly difficult for the economy to take, analysts warn. And auto sales are particularly sensitive to any weakening of the economy, so declines in housing, for example, could lead to an escalating, downward spiral. And that would send even more autoworkers lining up at the unemployment office.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/automakers-are-making-production-cuts-faster-any-time-recession-n775956
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2005 on: June 25, 2017, 10:18:34 PM »
An interesting take on the North American car market - A Perfect Storm of Negatives

"Will the Auto Industry Ever Be The Same?
I believe that we will witness significant changes in the way that we purchase our vehicles after the downturn that I expect in the auto industry. Profits for manufacturers and retail dealers will fall significantly in the coming years. As I write this, dealer groups are investing in more and more retail storefronts. Falling new vehicles sales will mean more dealers competing for fewer customers. This sales environment will lead to massive margin compression and newer entries may not survive. Both manufacturers and retail dealers will be forced to reconsider the cost structure of their business to better compete with companies like Tesla which have a much lower cost of distribution.

Something that’s very different today than it was during our last recession is the ability for companies to replace or reduce the size of their workforce with technological alternatives. I believe that when the smoke clears, manufacturers and dealers will adopt a much more cost-effective way of retailing new vehicles to the public. This will have a negative impact on both the quantity of jobs and wage growth in the automotive sector."

http://blindersoffllc.blogspot.ca/2017/06/the-perfect-storm-2-autonomics-by.html?m=1

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2006 on: June 26, 2017, 12:42:50 AM »
If robotaxis become a real thing sales of private cars should drop below 50% of what they are today.  Perhaps far below.  The companies that run fleets of robotaxis are not going to purchase from a dealer, at least through the showroom part of the dealership.

Back when I was buying a (small) number of vehicles at a time I just called up the dealer and asked for the fleet manager.  And bought on price over the phone.

Front end sales will collapse.  Service centers will dry up.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2007 on: June 26, 2017, 02:06:52 PM »
Tesla is paying for the deployment of destination AC chargers that all EVs can use
Quote
Tesla operates two different charging networks. While Tesla’s Supercharger network is made of DC fast-charging stations for long distance driving, the Destination Charging network consists level 2 chargers, more specifically the ‘Tesla Wall Connector’, installed at restaurants and hotels to charge once Tesla owners arrive at their destination, hence the name.

As we already knew, the company supplies those chargers for free, officially 2 chargers, but we’ve heard of busy locations where Tesla supplied more, including covering the cost of the installation.
...
Electrek has talked to several business owners with Destination Chargers and some of them revealed that Tesla suggested them to install a Clipper Creek Charger, along with the Tesla Wall Connector, at no additional cost.
...
The total cost of those installations can easily add up to several thousands of dollars after all the equipment and installation. Yet, Tesla doesn’t even have a formal contract with the business owners – only a letter of intent to confirm that the automaker will cover the cost of chargers and the installation, while the host will cover the electricity bill....
https://electrek.co/2017/06/26/tesla-destination-charging-other-evs/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2008 on: June 26, 2017, 04:46:48 PM »
Tesla is paying for the deployment of destination AC chargers that all EVs can use
Quote
Tesla operates two different charging networks. While Tesla’s Supercharger network is made of DC fast-charging stations for long distance driving, the Destination Charging network consists level 2 chargers, more specifically the ‘Tesla Wall Connector’, installed at restaurants and hotels to charge once Tesla owners arrive at their destination, hence the name.

As we already knew, the company supplies those chargers for free, officially 2 chargers, but we’ve heard of busy locations where Tesla supplied more, including covering the cost of the installation.
...
Electrek has talked to several business owners with Destination Chargers and some of them revealed that Tesla suggested them to install a Clipper Creek Charger, along with the Tesla Wall Connector, at no additional cost.
...
The total cost of those installations can easily add up to several thousands of dollars after all the equipment and installation. Yet, Tesla doesn’t even have a formal contract with the business owners – only a letter of intent to confirm that the automaker will cover the cost of chargers and the installation, while the host will cover the electricity bill....
https://electrek.co/2017/06/26/tesla-destination-charging-other-evs/

Tesla is putting the rest of the car industry in a position where they will either have to up their game or cede more and more market to Tesla over time.

Tesla is likely to end up with the lowest manufacturing cost for a similar sized/featured EV due to their highly automated battery and vehicle factories.  Tesla isn't having to sell wholesale and let independent dealers take a cut.  As long as Tesla maintains quality while offering better charging opportunities a large portion of the EV market is likely to buy a Tesla. 

DrTskoul

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2009 on: June 26, 2017, 05:55:16 PM »
Tesla is paying for the deployment of destination AC chargers that all EVs can use
Quote
Tesla operates two different charging networks. While Tesla’s Supercharger network is made of DC fast-charging stations for long distance driving, the Destination Charging network consists level 2 chargers, more specifically the ‘Tesla Wall Connector’, installed at restaurants and hotels to charge once Tesla owners arrive at their destination, hence the name.

As we already knew, the company supplies those chargers for free, officially 2 chargers, but we’ve heard of busy locations where Tesla supplied more, including covering the cost of the installation.
...
Electrek has talked to several business owners with Destination Chargers and some of them revealed that Tesla suggested them to install a Clipper Creek Charger, along with the Tesla Wall Connector, at no additional cost.
...
The total cost of those installations can easily add up to several thousands of dollars after all the equipment and installation. Yet, Tesla doesn’t even have a formal contract with the business owners – only a letter of intent to confirm that the automaker will cover the cost of chargers and the installation, while the host will cover the electricity bill....
https://electrek.co/2017/06/26/tesla-destination-charging-other-evs/

Tesla is putting the rest of the car industry in a position where they will either have to up their game or cede more and more market to Tesla over time.

Tesla is likely to end up with the lowest manufacturing cost for a similar sized/featured EV due to their highly automated battery and vehicle factories.  Tesla isn't having to sell wholesale and let independent dealers take a cut.  As long as Tesla maintains quality while offering better charging opportunities a large portion of the EV market is likely to buy a Tesla.

How long can Tesla afford keep losing money....

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2010 on: June 26, 2017, 06:11:49 PM »
"How long can Tesla afford keep losing money...."

Not 'losing.'  Spending, on increasing the business. :)  Tesla has reservations for more than a year's worth of Model 3 production.  So revenue is assured, which is why suppliers are willing to give them 30 or 60 days to pay, and banks are willing to lend millions.  The future looks bright.

Edit: a reference:
Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk sees the vehicle generating ~$20 billion in revenue with 25% gross margin (TSLA)
http://electrek.co/2016/07/26/tesla-model-3-elon-musk-generating-20-billion-revenue-25-gross-margin-tsla/

« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 06:28:25 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2011 on: June 26, 2017, 06:15:35 PM »
Alphabet Inks Deal for Avis to Manage Self-Driving Car Fleet
Quote
Waymo, the self-driving car unit of Alphabet Inc., has reached an agreement for Avis Budget Group Inc. to manage its fleet of autonomous vehicles. It’s the first such deal in a field that’s still fledgling but exploding with partnerships. Avis shares surged.

The rental car firm will service and store Waymo’s Chrysler Pacifica minivans in Phoenix, where the parent of Google is testing a ride-hailing service with volunteer members of the public. Waymo will own the vehicles and pay Avis for its service, an arrangement that is set for multiple years but not exclusive. ...

De Shon said Avis will retrofit select facilities in the Phoenix area to accommodate Waymo’s minivans, including adding tailored tents to protect them from rain, and doesn’t plan to buy additional real estate. Avis will handle cleaning, oil changes, tire rotations and other vehicle services but will not be responsible for upkeep on Waymo’s specialized hardware, such as its lidar sensors.

Cars that drive themselves will, in theory, need more care than those that don’t. Waymo expects its vehicles will be constantly driving from user to user, adding wear and tear faster than cars parked for stretches of time. Krafcik, a former car executive, estimates Waymo vehicles will log around six times more miles per year than average cars. The Alphabet company is exploring multiple commercial models, including ride-hailing, logistics and personal car sales, and Krafcik said the Avis deal can support all of them.
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-26/alphabet-inks-deal-for-avis-to-manage-self-driving-car-fleet
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2012 on: June 26, 2017, 06:56:09 PM »
"How long can Tesla afford keep losing money...."

Not 'losing.'  Spending, on increasing the business. :)  Tesla has reservations for more than a year's worth of Model 3 production.  So revenue is assured, which is why suppliers are willing to give them 30 or 60 days to pay, and banks are willing to lend millions.  The future looks bright.

Edit: a reference:
Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk sees the vehicle generating ~$20 billion in revenue with 25% gross margin (TSLA)
http://electrek.co/2016/07/26/tesla-model-3-elon-musk-generating-20-billion-revenue-25-gross-margin-tsla/

Tesla is anticipating reaching the 500,000 EVs per year level next year.  Next year.   2018.

500k vehicles at a base price of $35k and a 25% GPM.  All the add-ons (glass roof, upgraded wheels, etc.) should have an even higher profit margin. 


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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2013 on: June 26, 2017, 08:56:12 PM »
i dunno if some of you remember my reservations as to the worth of batteries as an environmental solution. while many of my arguments are not covered in that article, i recommend to read the linked article. it's in german but google is your friend, should be good enough to get the info.

https://www.blick.ch/news/wirtschaft/schweden-studie-enttarnt-tesla-als-umwelt-suender-so-schmutzig-ist-der-gruene-luxus-schlitten-id6900808.html

just imagine if all ICE vehicles would run on batteries, the footprint wold be way larger IMO than the current footprint of ICE  (putting into account all the other factors that are not in the article but i wrote some in this thread)

i think the only real solution lays in getting rid of 2+ cars per household, car-sharing and generally altering the way of individual transportation. all technical solution lack the thought to the end and often end in even greater misery.

i have to add here that i myself drive an electric vehicle beside my motorbike, hence am by no mean against EV ( hybrid in my case) but still we should early enough consider ALL the consequences of new technologies. hypes and holy cows are usually not helpful long-term.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 09:02:26 PM by magnamentis »

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2014 on: June 26, 2017, 10:00:18 PM »
GHG Emissions from the Production of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles in China

Abstract: With the mass market penetration of electric vehicles, the Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
emissions associated with lithium-ion battery production has become a major concern. In this
study, by establishing a life cycle assessment framework, GHG emissions from the production of
lithium-ion batteries in China are estimated. The results show that for the three types of most
commonly used lithium-ion batteries, the (LFP) battery, the (NMC) battery and the (LMO) battery,
the GHG emissions from the production of a 28 kWh battery are 3061 kgCO2-eq, 2912 kgCO2-eq and 2705 kgCO2-eq, respectively. This implies around a 30% increase in GHG emissions from vehicle production compared with conventional vehicles. The productions of cathode materials and wrought aluminum are the dominating contributors of GHG emissions, together accounting for around three quarters of total emissions. From the perspective of process energy use, around 40% of total emissions are associated with electricity use, for which the GHG emissions in China are over two times higher than the level in the United States. According to our analysis, it is recommended that great efforts are needed to reduce the GHG emissions from battery production in China, with improving the production of cathodes as the essential measure.

This paper puts the CO2 emissions of the smaller 30kWh battery at 3 tonnes, in China. It also states that US emissions are about one third of those for battery production, so in the U.S. it would be 1 tonne for 30kWh (Nissan Leaf) and 3.3 tonnes for 100kWh (Tesla) - see page 7 of the report for a comparison table. A big reason is the high use of coal to produce electricity in China. The U.S. numbers are a lot lower than the numbers provided in the Swedish study, all between 30 and 35 kg CO2 per kWh.

www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/4/504/pdf

A Union of Concerned Scientists report put the CO2 emissions of a 85 kWh Tesla battery at 1 tonne.

http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/Cleaner-Cars-from-Cradle-to-Grave-full-report.pdf

The operation of the car with gasoline dwarfs the CO2 emissions in manufacturing.

That Swedish study assumes that the energy used for production will be 50% fossil fuel based. Also assumes a linear scaling of CO2 emissions and battery size, which may not match to reality. Has the Swedish study been peer reviewed, looks like an outlier?
« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 10:16:19 PM by rboyd »

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2015 on: June 26, 2017, 10:13:48 PM »
i dunno if some of you remember my reservations as to the worth of batteries as an environmental solution. while many of my arguments are not covered in that article, i recommend to read the linked article. it's in german but google is your friend, should be good enough to get the info.

https://www.blick.ch/news/wirtschaft/schweden-studie-enttarnt-tesla-als-umwelt-suender-so-schmutzig-ist-der-gruene-luxus-schlitten-id6900808.html

just imagine if all ICE vehicles would run on batteries, the footprint wold be way larger IMO than the current footprint of ICE  (putting into account all the other factors that are not in the article but i wrote some in this thread)

i think the only real solution lays in getting rid of 2+ cars per household, car-sharing and generally altering the way of individual transportation. all technical solution lack the thought to the end and often end in even greater misery.

i have to add here that i myself drive an electric vehicle beside my motorbike, hence am by no mean against EV ( hybrid in my case) but still we should early enough consider ALL the consequences of new technologies. hypes and holy cows are usually not helpful long-term.

Your article is simply wrong.

Even charged with today's grids EVs cause less CO2 to be released than ICEVs.  And each year our grids incorporate more renewable energy which means the CO2 footprint of EVs drops. 

CO2 and battery manufacturing  " you would need to drive your new Tesla for eight years (or drive a Nissan Leaf for nearly three years) just to break even on CO2 emissions".  Let's say that's true, Tesla batteries are going to last far longer than 8 years.  After ~200,000 miles in the car (15 years at 13,000 miles per year) there's going to be a lot of future life left for grid storage.

But, again, that's today's dirty grid numbers.  As the grid switches away from fossil fuels the CO2 payback time drops.  Both manufacturing related and driving CO2 emissions go down as grid emissions drop.

BTW, have you considered the CO2 emissions from mining and processing ore into steel and then turning that steel into an internal combustion engine?
---

I think it highly likely that we will start riding in robotaxis within the next five years.  At that point the number of cars manufactured per year will drop as many people give up personal ownership of vehicles for the much cheaper 'phone 4 a ride' service.  And opt for the even cheaper ride sharing option.

Because the 'car as status' factor will largely disappear we're likely to see robotaxis that operate for well over 200,000 miles (perhaps as much as 500,000 miles) before they are crushed.  A quick replacement of seats and carpets along with a new paint job is going to restore a worn vehicle into an acceptable taxi.  As long as the taxi is clean and reliable looks won't play a big role.

I think we'll see EVs designed specifically for the robotaxi business.  "Sturdy" interiors which can be quickly removed and replaced with new/reconditioned components.  The exteriors are likely to be more functional than eye-catching.  Think the London black cab.

rboyd

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« Reply #2016 on: June 26, 2017, 10:14:43 PM »
Swedish EV Battery Study Sucks

Points out a few of the issues with the study.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/06/22/swedish-ev-battery-study-sucks/

No, Tesla Batteries Are Not a Global-Warming Disaster

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/no-tesla-batteries-are-not-a-global-warming-disaster

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2017 on: June 26, 2017, 10:24:36 PM »
Porsche makes low volume, expensive cars.  But that means the company can more easily make the switch to EVs.

Porsche changes its mind on electric vehicles, plans 50% of its production to be electric within 6 years
Quote
It wasn’t long ago that Porsche claimed all-electric powertrains didn’t offer enough performance to reach the level that their customers expect from the premium German brand.

As their work on their first all-electric vehicle progresses, they are now changing their view on the technology and CEO Oliver Blume now says that he expects half of Porsche’s production to be electric by 2023.

The Mission E will be Porsche’s first all-electric vehicle and it is planned to enter production in 2019.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/06/26/porsche-electric-vehicles-mission-e/
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2018 on: June 26, 2017, 11:35:53 PM »
i dunno if some of you remember my reservations as to the worth of batteries as an environmental solution. while many of my arguments are not covered in that article, i recommend to read the linked article. it's in german but google is your friend, should be good enough to get the info.

Why quote a Boulevardzeitung when a simple Google search would have pointed you to a wonderful news item on the GWPF website? Maybe you'd be interested in some other stuff there as well. I believe they have a wonderful article by Matt Ridley on how there's nothing wrong whatsoever with Arctic sea ice.

Come on, MM, do some better research before regurgitating something here that is on the same level as climate risk denier drivel.
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magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2019 on: June 27, 2017, 02:45:56 AM »
i dunno if some of you remember my reservations as to the worth of batteries as an environmental solution. while many of my arguments are not covered in that article, i recommend to read the linked article. it's in german but google is your friend, should be good enough to get the info.

Why quote a Boulevardzeitung when a simple Google search would have pointed you to a wonderful news item on the GWPF website? Maybe you'd be interested in some other stuff there as well. I believe they have a wonderful article by Matt Ridley on how there's nothing wrong whatsoever with Arctic sea ice.

Come on, MM, do some better research before regurgitating something here that is on the same level as climate risk denier drivel.

"come on" accepted, try to do a better job next time, was a fast shot. ;)

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2020 on: June 27, 2017, 03:15:59 PM »
One less charging network card needed in your wallet!  ;D

ChargePoint adds nearly 10,000 new electric car chargers to its network by taking over GE’s
Quote
ChargePoint, one of the largest electric car charging station maker and network supplier, announced today a deal with GE to take over the management of their charging network.

It results in the quick addition of more than 1,800 commercial and about 8,000 residential charging spots to its network.

The move will quickly solidify ChargePoint’s position as the largest charging network supplier by charging station with currently over 35,900 independently-owned charging spots.
...
Earlier this year, the company raised a $82 million round led by Daimler in order to finance an expansion in Europe. It has since announced plans to deploy 200 fast-charging stations in the UK using its recently unveiled 400 kW charging technology, which is the fastest electric vehicle charging system so far.

The deployment of those stations will hopefully mark a change for the company, which has so far focused on slower level 2 chargers.
https://electrek.co/2017/06/27/chargepoint-electric-car-chargers-ge-network/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2021 on: June 27, 2017, 09:10:10 PM »
UPS Adding Green Vehicles, Looks to Cut Emissions 12% by 2025
Quote
Package delivery giant United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) has said it plans to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in its fleet of delivery vehicles over the next three years by purchasing at least 25% of new non-conventionally powered vehicles. The company’s total ground fleet currently numbers about 114,000 of which about 8,300 are alternative fuel and advanced technology vehicles.

In the company’s latest Sustainability Report, released Monday, the company set a goal of a 12% reduction in GHG emissions across its global ground operations by 2025.

The company’s aircraft fuel GHG emissions comprise 58% of UPS’s total emissions, but the company said it is not setting a target for an absolute reduction in airplane fuel consumption because there is no economically feasible alternative available.
...
Carbon intensity — the amount of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions per package delivered — has dropped by 17.9% in U.S. small package operations, 9.1% in global airline fuel use and 30.9% in U.S. supply chain and freight operations.
http://247wallst.com/services/2017/06/27/ups-adding-green-vehicles-looks-to-cut-emissions-12-by-2025/
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2022 on: June 28, 2017, 03:55:34 PM »
The demand reduction came from BMW cars and BMW battery storage -- the amount from cars was small in the test because only a few of the 100 test vehicles happened to be plugged in when the test events occurred.

BMW Tests Electric Cars as Power Grid Stabilizers
The experiment, with the utility PG&E, showed how electric vehicles can support the grid during periods of peak demand.
Quote
In an important real-world test of whether electric vehicles could play a bigger role in backing up the green power grid of the future, a group of San Francisco-area drivers showed that they were willing and even eager to adjust their charging times for the right financial incentives.

The small but sophisticated pilot test that took place over 18 months. During that time, BMW asked owners of its electric cars if they would be willing to delay recharging them by an hour on the company's cue.

An app notified the owners when a delay was coming, and they could opt out if they needed to charge at that time.

"Eighteen months later, I can unequivocally state that participation was transparent, hassle-free and mind-numbingly dull to the point that I mostly forgot about it," one participant, John Higham, wrote in a first person account of his experience for Inside EVs.
...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27062017/bmw-electric-vehicles-cars-flexible-power-grid-solar-renewable-energy
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2023 on: June 29, 2017, 07:35:47 PM »
"Normal" cars do not have enough surface area for solar cells to provide more than a handful of miles of range, given their weight.  This student group plans to offer another design that will be energy-positive.  But can they make it safe and street legal?

Creators of record-breaking solar car launch startup to sell street-legal version
Quote
Solar Team Eindhoven, a group of engineering students from the Technical University of Eindhoven (Netherlands), has been competing in the World Solar Challenge with their Stella and Stella Lux, energy positive solar cars – meaning that they can produce more energy than they consume.

Some of the students responsible for the vehicles have now launched a new startup to make a commercial street-legal version of the car.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/06/29/solar-electric-car-startup-lightyear/

https://www.lightyear.one
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2024 on: June 29, 2017, 08:59:48 PM »
”Tesla will win big in the race to sell electric cars to the world, a German analyst believes, because the competition from traditional manufacturers has been complacent and Elon Musk’s California upstart will win a near monopoly of the market.“

Quote
“To contrast Tesla with even the most forward looking (manufacturers), we estimate Tesla will invest $32.7 billion over the next 5 years – roughly 40% more than Daimler and Volkswagen combined have committed for their EV projects.”

Quote
[After Tesla,] Daimler’s Mercedes looks best prepared, followed by Volkswagen. BMW appears to be dithering. General Motors, despite its Chevrolet Bolt, Ford, and FCA don’t get strong ratings.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2017/06/29/tesla-focus-means-victory-versus-complacent-mainstream-in-electric-car-market-report/

https://electrek.co/2017/06/29/tesla-electric-car-monopoly-report/
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2025 on: June 29, 2017, 09:21:21 PM »
The fun thing is that Tesla can grow enormously even in an self-driving car market that sells 70% fewer cars than today's. The huge lead that the majors have risks being a stranded asset.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2026 on: June 29, 2017, 09:35:14 PM »
Tesla isn't doing anything that can't be copied.

The question is whether other manufacturers will copy Tesla's (apparent) much more efficient manufacturing procedures and grab a share of the market.

Early years the market will be divided because of brand loyalty, if nothing else.  But if Tesla can manufacture at a lower cost because of lower labor costs and faster manufacturing (more cars per year per factory/robot/capital cost) then Tesla can underprice other companies while still making a good profit. 

Assuming Tesla produces quality products then between price, built out charging system, lower sales costs, etc. Tesla can continue to grab as much of the market that they want.

I find it highly unlikely that a least a few other car manufacturers won't step up and compete head to head with Tesla.  It might take them a couple more years to commit.  If Tesla does start manufacturing at a 500,000 per year rate by next year then I expect a general panic to set in within many corporate headquarters.

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2027 on: June 30, 2017, 09:12:17 PM »
Good point Bob. It does seem like the auto majors are waiting to see if Tesla will swim or sink during the big volume ramp up. If they are still swimming well late next year you can bet there will be a mad panic among the majors. Then Tesla will have been a success for society, even if they are overtaken by others. Someone needs to break the inertia.

I do remember when the Japanese cars invaded the US car market in significant numbers. Panic ensued, and it took quite a while for the US car manufacturers to accept the need for change. If I remember correctly, it was more the minivan then the SUV (with low gas prices) that really saved them - and the Japanese "voluntary" export restraints. Tesla is a US manufacturer, so at least the trade bullshit can't be pulled on them.

Then, when the Lexus came out it took quite a while for the big German luxury manufacturers to accept that they had a big problem.

Now, what happens if some of those Chinese EV manufacturers start selling a lot of cars in the US? Maybe the Chinese market is growing so fast it will soak up all of their output.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2017, 09:29:01 PM by rboyd »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2028 on: June 30, 2017, 09:25:23 PM »
Future Energy: LA crystals turn cars into energy source
Quote
...
Piezoelectric crystals generate an electrical charge when compressed and scientists estimate that if they were positioned on a 10-mile stretch of highway they could generate enough electricity to power the city of Burbank, which has a population of more than 100,000.
...
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-39934323

I guess the key would be to build a paving machine that automatically lays down the crystals and the electrical connectors.  Or, have them embedded in a glass surface, such as the one solar roadways uses.
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sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2029 on: July 01, 2017, 04:59:00 AM »
The pizeo idea is completely mad. The will decrease the efficiency of the vehicle, it will burn more fuel.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2030 on: July 01, 2017, 06:37:12 AM »
The pizeo idea is completely mad. The will decrease the efficiency of the vehicle, it will burn more fuel.

Will it require the car to use more energy?  It seems like the crystals would have to compress enough so that the car's tires were constantly climbing a (tiny) hill.  They'd have to compress more than normal pavement.

(I have no idea how much or if pavement compresses when vehicles travel over it.)

Maybe the crystals would be harvesting energy that the car would lose to the pavement anyway.

(Pure speculation.  Need someone to chime in with facts.)

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2031 on: July 01, 2017, 07:07:30 AM »
Law of energy conservation. Enuf said.

On the other hand, putting them only in long downhill stretches where people normally brake could gain some net energy, though with regenerative braking this probably would result in shortening EV ranges.
In any case, laying such sensitive infrastructure under a highway can't be economically viable due to maintenance costs.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2032 on: July 01, 2017, 07:58:14 AM »
Quote
Law of energy conservation. Enuf said.

Perhaps you noticed that I suggested that pavement might be compressed as vehicles drive over it.  If so, energy is being transferred from vehicle to pavement already.

No one has suggested that energy might be created out of nothing.  Just wondering if wasted energy might be repurposed.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2033 on: July 01, 2017, 08:09:06 AM »
Quote
Numerous field and modeling efforts have been undertaken to understand the effect of pavement stiffness on fuel economy. Some theorists suggest that when tires and pavements interact, the pavement compresses causing the tire to continually drive “uphill.”8 Despite efforts, research has provided conflicting results as to the importance of pavement stiffness of fuel economy. Some studies based on modeling and measured results have shown there is no practical difference,9,10,11,12 while others have shown the differences could range from small to significant.13,14,15 An honest evaluation of current knowledge shows that researchers and engineers are still struggling to quantify the true impact of pavement stiffness on fuel economy.

https://www.asphaltisbest.com/how-the-road-influences-vehicle-fuel-economy/

It seems that at least some pavement does compress.  The issue is how much.

Quote
lead zirconate titanate crystals will generate measurable piezoelectricity when their static structure is deformed by about 0.1% of the original dimension.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piezoelectricity#Synthetic_ceramics

If asphalt compresses as vehicles pass over it and if the amount of compression roughly equals the amount of deformation required to produce usable electricity from a piezoelectric crystal then harvesting otherwise wasted energy might be possible.

"If" and "might" are important words in my comment.  I don't know enough about asphalt and piezoelectric crystals to get me past crude wonderings...

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2034 on: July 01, 2017, 08:27:53 AM »
Quote
Law of energy conservation. Enuf said.

Perhaps you noticed that I suggested that pavement might be compressed as vehicles drive over it.  If so, energy is being transferred from vehicle to pavement already.

No one has suggested that energy might be created out of nothing.  Just wondering if wasted energy might be repurposed.
The original article, being in layman terms, seems to suggest energy is gained out of nothing. And I am not sure the study will count lost car efficiency when evaluating the technology.
I wasn't hinting you were suggesting it, sorry if it came out that way. In fact I found your questions interesting.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2035 on: July 01, 2017, 02:44:10 PM »
Perhaps the slight loss in fuel efficiency due to compressibility could be considered a "toll" paid by users of the road. :)

There's also the friction generated by tires rolling over the highway surface, which might be of use. (The heat generated by friction is one reason why you see narrow dry stripes on an otherwise wet road surface.)
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2036 on: July 01, 2017, 04:21:06 PM »
Perhaps the slight loss in fuel efficiency due to compressibility could be considered a "toll" paid by users of the road. :)

There's also the friction generated by tires rolling over the highway surface, which might be of use. (The heat generated by friction is one reason why you see narrow dry stripes on an otherwise wet road surface.)

There might be usable energy that's now being wasted.  But I'd be extremely surprised if it could be harvested at an affordable cost.  Look how cheap wind and solar are becoming.  I'm seeing approximately nothing about wave and tidal technology, I suspect the price of wind and solar has become so low that the price gap is looking insurmountable.  I'm not sure I've heard of a new geothermal project for a while.

Unless someone sees a possible way to make the technology competitive I suspect this will stay basically an "academic" topic.  That's not to degrade it, knowledge is a wonderful thing and we should gather as much as we can.  But using crystals embedded in  roadways to light our lights seems like a long stretch.


gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2037 on: July 01, 2017, 04:47:44 PM »
Some of us think "why not less cars, and less trucks, and more public transport and more ability to find work and places to relax a bit closer to home".

"In economics, the Jevons paradox (sometimes the Jevons effect) occurs when technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises because of increasing demand."

The paradox is mostly debunked by the intelligentsia. But it is true to say that in the UK the improved energy efficiency of household appliances, TVs, lighting, heating systems etc initially led to a reduction in electricity consumption but that is now in reverse.

The revolution in transportation from EVs and renewable energy production (plus highspeed trains etc) could easily lead to vastly increased demand for use, and consequent demands for yet more roads....... London can't take any more, the UK motorway network is a pain in the butt. Can LA widen its autoroutes without complete and utter disruption?
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2038 on: July 01, 2017, 06:05:35 PM »
Some of us think "why not less cars, and less trucks, and more public transport and more ability to find work and places to relax a bit closer to home".

"In economics, the Jevons paradox (sometimes the Jevons effect) occurs when technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises because of increasing demand."

The paradox is mostly debunked by the intelligentsia. But it is true to say that in the UK the improved energy efficiency of household appliances, TVs, lighting, heating systems etc initially led to a reduction in electricity consumption but that is now in reverse.

The revolution in transportation from EVs and renewable energy production (plus highspeed trains etc) could easily lead to vastly increased demand for use, and consequent demands for yet more roads....... London can't take any more, the UK motorway network is a pain in the butt. Can LA widen its autoroutes without complete and utter disruption?

The first question to ask is whether there is pent up demand to drive more.  Are people not driving as much as they would like because it costs too much per mile?

I'd guess that most people are already driving as much as they would like to drive.  Many would love to drive less.

Self-driving cars may end up reducing the number of cars on our roads.  Ride sharing should become very easy and lots of people are likely to use ride sharing in order to lower their cost of travel.

I suspect we're going to see self-driving mini-buses that will be very attractive to commuters.  If you can step outside your door into a robotaxi which drops you at the neighborhood bus stop and that bus takes you quickly (dedicated bus lane with no stops along the way) to your destination that's likely to be very attractive.  Especially at a fraction of the cost of a seat in a four passenger car.

For the Jeavons effect to show up there needs to be suppressed demand.

IIRC, the cost of electricity in the UK isn't high enough to cause large use constraints.  People may not heat their houses as much as they would like but I doubt they limited TV watching or didn't have that extra cuppa.  One would need to look to see where the extra energy is being used.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2039 on: July 01, 2017, 07:09:01 PM »
Maybe people forego long distance driving because it's too tiring to drive? But with self-driving cars they just might drive to Vegas, or Florida, or whatever.

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« Reply #2040 on: July 01, 2017, 08:47:35 PM »
Maybe people forego long distance driving because it's too tiring to drive? But with self-driving cars they just might drive to Vegas, or Florida, or whatever.

That's a possibility.  Given that you could sleep as you were driven we might see people taking long trips on weekends that they would not now do.  Sleep Friday and Sunday night while riding.

I'm not sure that would cause our roads to become more congested as the real problems seem to be entering/leaving cities during rush hours.  The last couple of times I've driven to San Francisco I've left home (about 3PM) for the 5-6 hour drive and have had to deal with no traffic.  By the time I hit the zone (around Santa Rosa) where traffic starts to be a problem during the day, the problem has disappeared.

I suspect congestion will be lowered with self-driving cars.  Some of the things that slow thing down are drivers cutting others off, waiting to change lanes, fender benders. 

TerryM

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« Reply #2041 on: July 01, 2017, 10:10:47 PM »
In Cuba ride sharing takes place at hitchhiking booths. If you need a ride you tell the booth operator where you need to go to, he flags down an underutilized car or truck & you're off.


No payoff for the driver - other than the company, but an effortless ride for everyone who can't afford their own car.


Wonder if a free ride app might appeal say between LA and San Francisco?


Terry

numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2042 on: July 02, 2017, 03:20:42 AM »
Long-distance travel by self-driving car will be energetically better than by jet plane. Still not as good as a drive to a Shinkansen.

The cost will still be noticeable. Currently the cost is half gasoline (which you notice easily), half capital and maintenance (which you don't). If the car is a rental self-driving EV, fuel and maintenance will be cheaper than now, but you'll pay both up front.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2043 on: July 03, 2017, 12:44:13 PM »
Elon Musk: “Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday
   Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3's on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.
    Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/881751358407299072

Tesla Model 3 production starts Friday, two weeks ahead of schedule, says Elon Musk
Quote
CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla Model 3 “passed all regulatory requirements” and they now expect to produce the first few Model 3 vehicles on Friday.

It would mean that the highly anticipated vehicle is on time since Tesla had been guiding a start of production in July since last year when it updated its production plans after receiving a lot more reservations than anticipated.

‘SN1’ likely refers to “serial number 1”, which would be the first vehicle to be produced on the production line.

Musk had previously disclosed a deadline of July 1st for parts from internal teams and external suppliers in order to start Model 3 production. The part orders were planned to be enough for 1,000 units per week for the month and ramp up to 5,000 units per week by the end of the year.

The company had given recent hints that production was about to start. The Model 3 is assembled at Tesla’s Fremont factory, but the battery cells, packs, and drive units are made at Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada, and CTO JB Straubel disclosed last month that they started to produce batteries for the vehicle.

As we previously reported, Tesla is expected to deliver the early production of Model 3 vehicles to employees and then to current Tesla owners in California. As the production rate increases, Tesla will start moving east and deliver more vehicles to early reservation holders.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/07/03/tesla-model-3-launch-production/

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk updates his guidance on production ramp up and deliveries
https://electrek.co/2017/07/03/tesla-model-3-production-ramp-up
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2044 on: July 03, 2017, 04:48:29 PM »
Tesla 3 hits the road this month.  And now it's going to be interesting to see how other car manufacturers respond.  Do they have some announcements that they'll make in order to try to take some attention away from Tesla?

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« Reply #2045 on: July 03, 2017, 07:30:29 PM »
I'm still ruminating about the advent of autonomous electrical vehicles. When self driven vehicles have become museum pieces will stop lights, stop sign's, lane markings, and squad cars also have a place in that diorama?


My car would negotiate with your car as to who slows down a little, and who increases their speed so that both don't enter a particular intersection at the same time. A left turn against traffic might require a major conference call, with all of the vehicles agreeing on the proper time for the turning vehicle to make his move, but with no more waiting for a timed light, or even a "smart light" to give permission.


During rush hours perhaps 5 out of 6 lanes would be heading in or out of an urban region, while during off hours 3 lanes in each direction might prove optimal. I suppose what I'm contemplating is a future where, rather than just reading the traffic situation and reacting, each vehicle plugs itself into a network with every other car along it's path & negotiates a route and speed that is optimal for the group.


Highways and roadways would become less expensive to build and maintain, traffic jams would be avoided, and traffic cops could chase down evil doers rather than ticketing to fill the local coffers.
 Perhaps vehicles in a particular hurry would pay a premium for the right to the fastest right of way, while those out for a Sunday drive, or without passengers, could drive very inexpensively by allowing themselves to be regularly shifted toward the back of the line?


Pedestrians might present problems, but pedestrian bridges or tunnels might be less expensive than a traffic light on every corner. Would something like Segways for all, moving sidewalks, or controlled e-bikes relieve some of the pedestrian problems?


Terry

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« Reply #2046 on: July 03, 2017, 08:21:34 PM »
I think you've largely figured it out, Terry.  I hadn't considered changing the number of lanes heading in one direction based on demand but it makes a lot of sense.  We already do that some places (Golden Gate Bridge) but it's done manually with traffic cones.

I haven't given a lot of thought about bikes and pedestrians.  But I would think that the system could create 'bike highways' where groups of bikes could ride non-stop on a few major routes.  As long as you're within the pack the side street and turning traffic could stop and let you pass.  (Ride through 'windows' lasting X minutes.  If you don't make it through with the pack you're trailing you'd be at the head of the next pack.)

The bike highways might run on roads parallel with the main traffic routes when possible.  Car traffic might be limited to one way leaving room for bike lanes in both directions.  The only cars driving in the lane might be ones going only a block or two.  Put the car and parking lanes on one side of the street, bike lanes on the other.

We could still have the same sort of crosswalks for peds.  Perhaps shorter four-way stops so that people could also cross diagonally rather than having to cross two streets.  I've encountered diagonal crossing somewhere and it makes a lot of sense if, for example, you need to get some place a block or more ahead but on the opposite side of the road.

Overhead walkways with escalators over the main traffic streets could make sense.  Lots of people won't want to use them if they have to climb 14' of stairs.  I frequently use overhead walkways in Bangkok but climbing stairs in the heat makes one want to thread their way through traffic.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2047 on: July 04, 2017, 05:32:43 PM »
These are only a test....  The charging robot is an interesting idea, but would be more useful if it went up and down an aisle behind a row of chargers, plugging and unplugging EVs as needed, rather than carrying enough batteries to charge -- what, one or two cars? -- before needing to recharge itself. 

VW unveils all-electric research car with 250 miles of range and mobile charging robots
https://electrek.co/2017/07/04/vw-all-electric-research-car-mobile-charging-robots/
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2048 on: July 04, 2017, 05:40:40 PM »
We're moving rapidly to self-driving cars.  Let the cars come to the robot.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2049 on: July 04, 2017, 05:52:13 PM »
This would be a great time to standardize the placement of the charge port on EVs.  Automatic charge connectors would be simpler (cheaper to build and maintain) if there was less need to reach any point on a car. 

Stick them all on the driver's side and on a (roughly) vertical surface.   (Someone can work out the details.)  Then the plug robot would need to move only up/down in a limited range and forward/back in a limited range for the plug to line up with the receiver.  No complicated articulated joints.