But Electrek argues Bloomberg is still being very conservative:
I agree with Electrek. I think the uptake of EVs will be swift. And due to multiple drivers, of which cost is only one.
First, there's economics. EVs should soon be cheaper to manufacture than ICEVs. That may happen starting tomorrow when the Tesla 3 begins production. If not then, probably within two years as economies of scale kick in and the Tesla manufacturing system is fine tuned.
At first purchase prices may stay high because demand will likely outstrip supply. Over a short period enough new EV options should appear so that sales competition brings down profits to ordinary levels.
Then include the much lower operating/maintenance costs. An EV will pay for itself with fuel and maintenance savings over the life of the car.
Second, EVs will give millions of people something they can personally do to lower carbon emissions. If they can drive an EV for the same or less than a gasmobile lots of people will gladly do so. Millions are likely to be willing to pay a modest purchase price premium in order to cut their personal carbon footprint.
Corporations and governments are going to 'green' their fleets. Saving money and being more responsible are major selling points. Lots of cities are setting goals of lowering their carbon emissions.
Third, cities are going to get serious about air quality. By switching buses and other municipal vehicles to electric and by dissuading fossil fueled vehicles inside the city they will be able to greatly improve the quality of life and lower healthcare costs.
Fourth, self-driving. Older people and women are the largest purchasers of new cars. And, I'm guessing, will be much more interested in a self-driving car than younger males. (As an 'older', I have my Tesla 3/Y money set aside while I wait to see if they can actually drive themselves.)
I listened to a discussion of self-driving cars yesterday. It was the presenter's opinion that we are unlikely to see self-driving ICEVs (or at least many). If you want a car that drives itself then your opion is likely an EV.
People bought washing machines because they saved labor. They switched from B&W TVs to color TVs because the picture was in color.
All these technology switches had a single driver. EVs will have multiple.