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Pmt111500

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #100 on: February 19, 2014, 04:14:25 AM »
Quote
More use of rail transport for freight would help even more though...
If railroads can build a system where the first to load is the first to unload this wouldn't even mess up any competion. This though would mean, i think, they'd had to use a special 'unloading' railroad carts behind the locomotive if the whole truck is being transported. More efficient would of course be to move just the stuff needing transport but this would mean the small amounts of stuff would need separate smaller containers and some equipment to move them at every passing siding and station, almost.

Reducing car driving speeds also saves some fuel for air-resistance in most cases, but proposing this is close to heresy at least in here. The regenerative breaking systems in electrified cars is one great source of their efficiency.

JackTaylor

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #101 on: February 19, 2014, 01:42:36 PM »
Quote
More use of rail transport for freight would help even more though...
If railroads can build a system where the first to load is the first to unload this wouldn't even mess up any competion. This though would mean, i think, they'd had to use a special 'unloading' railroad carts behind the locomotive if the whole truck is being transported. More efficient would of course be to move just the stuff needing transport but this would mean the small amounts of stuff would need separate smaller containers and some equipment to move them at every passing siding and station, almost.

Reducing car driving speeds also saves some fuel for air-resistance in most cases, but proposing this is close to heresy at least in here. The regenerative breaking systems in electrified cars is one great source of their efficiency.

Pmt111500,
Maybe some real interest is being applied to your beliefs.

Railroad replacing Truck Carriers
http://www.port-of-charleston.com/Cargo/ReadytoGrow/sc_inland_port.asp

Buses, innovation from Germany and Korea (reducing battery size and weight)
http://www.zeitnews.org/applied-sciences/transportation/wireless-charging-electric-buses-be-put-real-world-test-germany
and
http://www.embarq.org/en/node/6018

is being tested in the USA
http://timesfreepress.com/news/2011/nov/18/cartas-electric-buses-charge-go/?local

Some claims are being made elsewhere, that in pavement wireless charging of EV batteries is an ideal for renewable's because of high day time use of public buses to virtually none at night.
Passenger cars (personal vehicles) - needs more exploration.

Something of interest for me to follow.  Also, we have an electric bus manufacturer near me.
http://www.proterra.com/

JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #102 on: February 19, 2014, 04:59:28 PM »
Another thing one sees talked about are the aerodynamic skirts attached to the side of the trailers.  In optimum conditions they were said to increase fuel efficiency by 9% but he says in actual road use it is more like 4%.  But it still helps of course.

More use of rail transport for freight would help even more though...

One of the big issues for rail in the US is that while the US once had by far the worlds best rail network most of the track and right of ways are long gone.  To rebuild the system we need would be a gargantuan project and require huge amounts of time, resources and wealth.  All in short supply.

In 1926 the US had 300,000 miles of track.  Today there is only 140,000 miles of track. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ccgwebmaster

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #103 on: February 19, 2014, 07:23:14 PM »
One of the big issues for rail in the US is that while the US once had by far the worlds best rail network most of the track and right of ways are long gone.  To rebuild the system we need would be a gargantuan project and require huge amounts of time, resources and wealth.  All in short supply.

The longer one leaves common sense and effective solutions, the larger the necessary effort and the lower the probability of them actually happening becomes.

That of course is why we are now at the present pass where the collapse of civilisation and all the attendant woes are almost certainly inevitable.

It is also why the optimists who will continue to think some technological marvel or sudden application of common sense will save us at the last minute are likely wrong. Since before my time such common sense answers and thoughts and technologies (some neglected by accident of history or pressure from vested interests) have been available, yet not used.

Even if one predicates hope upon a sudden social transformation, a new revolutionary ideology sweeping through the global population - the longer that elapses without any signs of this, and the further away from the right steps we move - the less likely it becomes as a source of hope.

In that way to keep the trucks running but a little bit more efficiently (instead of building back the railways and removing most of the trucks) is arguably a little increment nearer to the grave, not really a step towards hope. It's part of the thinking that argues for prolonging what we have right now at any cost and later be damned.

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #104 on: February 19, 2014, 10:40:09 PM »
Re: first to load first to unload TEU

already everywhere innit ? doesn't everyone with a rail siding and any amount of traffic already have
overhead lift with teu grabber that unloads any specific railcar flatbed in a consist (usually at least 2 TEU stacked if the route will allow, on trailer which then is hauled away by opportunistic tractor +flatbed, arranged thru load broker ?  at worst it will have to do one extra unload of the upper TEU in a two TEU stack.  I hardly see any tractors being transported these days, sometimes trailers, but more and more just TEUs.

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #105 on: February 20, 2014, 04:45:54 PM »
Re: first to load first to unload TEU
already everywhere innit ? doesn't everyone with a rail siding and any amount of traffic already have overhead lift with teu grabber that unloads any specific railcar flatbed in a consist (usually at least 2 TEU stacked if the route will allow, on trailer which then is hauled away by opportunistic tractor +flatbed, arranged thru load broker ?  at worst it will have to do one extra unload of the upper TEU in a two TEU stack.  I hardly see any tractors being transported these days, sometimes trailers, but more and more just TEUs.

sidd
sidd,
Things I see rolling down the railroad track show full agreement with your comment.

One thing I wish to add seems to be a reduction in "box-cars" overwhelmingly it is TEUs.

Off comment:
Still see some open top coal carriers, exclusively in a train make-up, but understand the numbers are dropping.

JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #106 on: March 04, 2014, 06:45:04 PM »
Interesting car info.  US sales figures for the winter season.

Quote
Severe cold weather across much of the country stalled new-vehicle sales in February, even as sales of some trucks and sport utility vehicles remained strong, automakers reported on Monday.

Overall sales were flat for the month, according to figures from Autodata Corporation. Automakers sold 1.2 million vehicles in February, the same as February last year, for an annualized rate of 15.34 million and below the 16 million vehicles the industry expects to sell this year.

Sales well below expectations overall but strong for big vehicles which handle snow and ice well.  The effects of a nasty winter.

Quote
The Chrysler Group said its sales rose 11 percent, to 154,866 units, for its best February performance in seven years, in part on the strength of its Jeep brand, which gained 47 percent for the month. The new Jeep Cherokee midsize sport utility vehicle posted its second-best monthly performance since arriving in dealerships last October.

Chrysler also fared best in the pickup truck segment, reporting an increase of 26 percent for its Ram pickup. Ford said sales of its F-Series, the country’s best-selling vehicle, advanced 2.6 percent to 55,882 units, its best February in eight years.

Expensive cars are seeing strong sales.

Quote
Meanwhile, the automaker’s sales mix is shifting toward more feature-laden vehicles starting at $40,000, said James Cain, a G.M. spokesman.

Toyota and Volkswagen said they were hit hard by the winter weather and February’s short sales month.

Toyota’s sales declined 4.3 percent for the month. The Toyota division fell 5.8 percent, to 140,429 vehicles sold, but its luxury Lexus brand increased by 8.7 percent, to 18,855.

Electric vehicle sales are mixed.

Quote
Sales of its all-electric Leaf car also more than doubled for the month, compared with the Chevrolet Volt, which fell more than 25 percent.

All in all.  More of the same.  Just dialing in more infrastructure of the wrong kind.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/business/carmakers-say-sales-were-sluggish-in-chilly-february.html?ref=business&_r=0

More on the electric car sales issue.  Not pretty.  Very low numbers, less than 4,000 for Feb out of 1.2 million total.

Quote
Analysts worried that winter weather would put a crimp in U.S. new-car sales last month, but one electric car racked up record February sales: the Nissan Leaf.

Leaf sales of 1,425 cars in February were a record for the month, more than double the 2013 total of 653 February sales (the numbers for 2012 and 2011 were 478 and 67, respectively).

Sales of the Chevrolet Volt, the range-extended electric car that's the other high-volume, mass-priced plug-in car on the market, came in at 1,210--higher than January's 918, but down one-third from the 1,626 sold in February 2013.

Volt sales appear to be stagnating, with slightly fewer sold in 2013 than 2012, and very little marketing for the car from parent company General Motors....

...The third best-selling electric car is the Tesla Model S, whose maker refuses to report monthly sales. A conservative monthly figure for U.S. sales might be 1,000 or 1,200 units.

Is GM losing interest?

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1090645_plug-in-electric-car-sales-for-feb-leaf-record
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #107 on: March 12, 2014, 02:38:12 PM »
It looks like the car industry is using their political power to hamper Tesla's sales.  Pretty hardcore.  Not sure why they are doing this as Tesla's sales are not significant in a business sense.

Quote
New Jersey Becomes Third State To Ban Tesla’s Direct Sales Model

Today the New Jersey Motor Vehicle Commission passed a rule that will end Tesla’s direct sales of cars to consumers. Tesla, a manufacturer of all-electric cars, does not lean on dealerships to sell its vehicles as other car companies do.

The rule goes into effect in April.

New Jersey is the third state to ban the practice of selling cars directly to consumers, joining Arizona and Texas in preventing their residents from easily buying a more environmentally friendly ride. The New Jersey Coalition of Automotive Retailers was in favor of the rule change, unsurprisingly.

Guess they are trying to force them to create dealerships.  I wonder where they take them to get service if there are no dealerships.  Sure can't help sales.

http://techcrunch.com/2014/03/11/new-jersey-becomes-third-state-to-ban-teslas-direct-sales-model/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl27%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D452911
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #108 on: March 22, 2014, 03:12:54 PM »
My bro runs a small trucking company.  I have been telling him we are going to replace him with a robot pretty soon.  He scoffs.  Robots!  We don't need no stinking people!

Quote
In the wake of new U.S. Department of Transportation guidelines for automated-vehicle testing, experts such as Ümit Özguner, a professor with Ohio State University’s Center for Automotive Research, are predicting that the first wave of operational autonomous vehicles will be devoted to long-haul deliveries. This is about moving cargo, not people.

“The trucking industry is very interested in going from single trucks to convoys of trucks. One human driver with perhaps three other trucks behind it,” Özguner told TechHive. “Those three wouldn’t necessarily have a driver in them. Eventually you could imagine removing the first driver too.”
..In late May, the U.S. Department of Transportation opened the door for road-testing self-driving trucks by publishing policies for the three states that currently allow driverless vehicles: California, Nevada, and Florida. These guidelines open the door for driverless tests of all kinds. Overseas, meanwhile, experiments with driverless truck convoys—also known as “platoons”—have been under way for years.

http://www.techhive.com/article/2046262/the-first-driverless-cars-will-actually-be-a-bunch-of-trucks.html

Quote
Driverless trucks get in shape for US Army convoy duty

Recent tests, says Lockheed Martin, show that fully autonomous convoys can safely navigate road intersections, oncoming traffic, stalled and passing vehicles, and pedestrians.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57618149-76/driverless-trucks-get-in-shape-for-us-army-convoy-duty/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #109 on: April 09, 2014, 06:25:14 PM »
Cars Become Biggest Driver of Greenhouse-Gas Increases

Quote
Emissions from transportation may rise at the fastest rate of all major sources through 2050, the United Nations will say in a report due April 13. Heat-trapping gases from vehicles may surge 71 percent from 2010 levels, mainly from emerging economies, according to a leaked draft of the most comprehensive UN study to date on the causes of climate change.

Rising incomes in nations like China, India and Brazil have produced explosive demand for cars and for consumer goods that must be delivered by highway, rail, ship or air. The new pollution, measured in millions of tons of greenhouse gases, may exceed all of the savings achieved through initiatives like subsidies for public transport and fuel efficiency. .....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/cars-become-biggest-driver-of-greenhouse-gas-increases.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #110 on: May 01, 2014, 02:22:40 PM »
A potential aid to the renewable energy/storage problem:  electric vehicles that supply power to the grid when needed, as well as charge from it.  This Delaware project makes money for that service.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/business/energy-environment/electric-vehicles-begin-to-earn-money-from-the-grid.html
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JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #111 on: May 01, 2014, 08:37:37 PM »
2013 end of year electric vehicle sales numbers

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1089443_plug-in-electric-car-sales-for-2013-almost-double-last-years

Now to some interesting stuff.  Predictions.  Here are two. One from Forbes who caters to business readers and one from CleanTechnica which caters to those focused on the green and renewable energy issues.  The great thing about these two reports is the they base their articles on EXACTLY THE SAME INDUSTRY RESEARCH REPORT!  Go figure.  Which is biased?

Note that the below prediction would be about 4% of total sales.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/tjmccue/2013/01/03/worldwide-electric-vehicle-sales-to-reach-3-8-million-annually-by-2020/

The below prediction is for almost double the previous one from Forbes and predicts 7% of global sales on 6.6 million production.  Very aggressive prediction and I note that their chart shows a straight line increase over time - unusual.

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/09/30/electric-vehicles-speeding-toward-7-global-sales-2020/

The research report.

http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-market-forecasts
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How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Zythryn

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #112 on: May 01, 2014, 11:02:12 PM »
It looks like the car industry is using their political power to hamper Tesla's sales.  Pretty hardcore.  Not sure why they are doing this as Tesla's sales are not significant in a business sense.

Quote
New Jersey Becomes Third State To Ban Tesla’s Direct Sales Model

Today the New Jersey Motor Vehicle Commission passed a rule that will end Tesla’s direct sales of cars to consumers. Tesla, a manufacturer of all-electric cars, does not lean on dealerships to sell its vehicles as other car companies do.
...
Guess they are trying to force them to create dealerships.  I wonder where they take them to get service if there are no dealerships.  Sure can't help sales.

The dealers aren't so worried about Tesla sales.  They are more concerned that other manufacturers might go the same route and cut out the middle man.

Tesla has service centers scattered about and will, if you are out of the service area, send a technician to your house, work etc to perform any work necessary.  While sales might be higher with more service centers, Tesla is production constrained, not demand constrained.  So at this point, it isn't hurting the bottom line.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2014, 01:27:08 PM by Zythryn »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #113 on: May 03, 2014, 01:31:10 AM »
2013 end of year electric vehicle sales numbers
...
Now to some interesting stuff.  Predictions.  Here are two. One from Forbes who caters to business readers and one from CleanTechnica which caters to those focused on the green and renewable energy issues.  The great thing about these two reports is the they base their articles on EXACTLY THE SAME INDUSTRY RESEARCH REPORT!  Go figure.  Which is biased?
...

Quote
Three different types of electric vehicles (EVs) fall under Navigant’s forecast:
> hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), those that generate all their own electric energy;
> plug-in electric vehicles (PHEVs), those that use electricity from the grid and gasoline;
> and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), those that only use electricity from the grid.

Judging by this graph from the report, it seems Forbes made a boo-boo.  Looks like the 6.6m number includes all three types, whereas the 3.8m includes only HEVs.
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JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #114 on: May 03, 2014, 04:01:43 AM »
Sig

That is what I thought at first, but if one reads the Forbes article they say their numbers include both plug-ins and HEV's.  Since I can't read the report I guess it is something else.  But I find the different numbers on the same report from two ideologically different sources interesting.

We see that a lot.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

jai mitchell

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #115 on: May 03, 2014, 07:14:22 PM »
Clearing the Air

1.  Hydrogen Cars are a myth started by the oil industry.  While the power density looks favorable, leakage and corrosion issues make fueling infrastructure impossible.  In addition, the majority of the modeled production of hydrogen comes as a byproduct of oil refinement.  It is a backdoor oil policy dressed up as green.  (A nuclear equivalent of this would be the National Ignition Facility which was billed as a fusion energy research platform but was really a bomb project)

2.  The Navigant study severely understates the Electric Vehicle future sales.  This is because they rely on the Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Administration's projection of gasoline prices.

These prices are severely understated.  What most people don't realize is that the "fracking revolution" isn't about natural gas AT ALL, it is about oil.

The value of oil sold from the shale fields is worth about 4 times as much as the value of natural gas sold from those wells.  Plus, the rate of drop off in production for those wells makes them "crash".  So they need to continually drill more wells to maintain production.  Once the oil is gone, the natural gas is no longer profitable to produce and they close up the well.



In addition, the Navigant study does not project the implementation of a carbon tax.  The implementation of this tax, coupled with future oil price increases will make electric cars much more viable.

3.  The Department of Energy is putting significant effort into the development of solar roadways.  They have a working prototype and the cost of asphalt has gone up so much now that the new solar roadway,   Video Here: coupled with wireless charging infrastructure placed under these solar roadways will allow electric vehicles to charge while driving and prevent the 10% line losses   http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9247958/TDK_moves_quickly_to_commercialize_wireless_charging_for_electric_cars  will make electric vehicles the primary mode of transportation.  Note: this technology also works for public transportation as well.

4.  If we globally reduce our per capita emissions to 1 tonne per person per year the Anthropogenic emissions would be 7.2 Gigatonnes per year.   Globally, the earth naturally removes 55% of the human-caused CO2 from the atmosphere each year. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/co2conference/posters_pdf/jones1_poster.pdf (this is equal to 17.6 Gigatonnes going mostly into the oceans each year)   A reduction in global emission from the current 32 Gigatonnes per year to 7.2 Gigatonnes per year would mean that the earth would naturally sequester approximately 10 Gigatonnes of CO2 from the current atmospheric abundance.

Since it takes 7.81 Gigatonnes for 1 part per million volume in the atmosphere http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45  This would mean that the atmospheric abundance of CO2 would go down by 1.2 ppmv per year.

5.  These ideas assume a free-market response instead of a command economy response.  In wartime, the command economy response is the only solution.  We are soon approaching a "war on warming".  As people understand that their children will de if we don't then they will rally for these kind of changes.  A command economy approach in 10 years will transform our transportation sector and reduce oil consumption by 90% in 5 years. 
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #116 on: May 03, 2014, 11:13:11 PM »
Clearing the Air

1.  Hydrogen Cars are a myth started by the oil industry.  While the power density looks favorable, leakage and corrosion issues make fueling infrastructure impossible.  In addition, the majority of the modeled production of hydrogen comes as a byproduct of oil refinement.  It is a backdoor oil policy dressed up as green.   
[snip]
4.  If we globally reduce our per capita emissions to 1 tonne per person per year the Anthropogenic emissions would be 7.2 Gigatonnes per year.   Globally, the earth naturally removes 55% of the human-caused CO2 from the atmosphere each year. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/co2conference/posters_pdf/jones1_poster.pdf (this is equal to 17.6 Gigatonnes going mostly into the oceans each year)   A reduction in global emission from the current 32 Gigatonnes per year to 7.2 Gigatonnes per year would mean that the earth would naturally sequester approximately 10 Gigatonnes of CO2 from the current atmospheric abundance.

Since it takes 7.81 Gigatonnes for 1 part per million volume in the atmosphere http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45  This would mean that the atmospheric abundance of CO2 would go down by 1.2 ppmv per year.

5.  These ideas assume a free-market response instead of a command economy response.  In wartime, the command economy response is the only solution.  We are soon approaching a "war on warming".  As people understand that their children will de if we don't then they will rally for these kind of changes.  A command economy approach in 10 years will transform our transportation sector and reduce oil consumption by 90% in 5 years.

Great post!  Only a couple of quibbles.  The "hydrogen economy" probably is impossible with conventional technology.  However, graphene could revolutionize that assessment.  It absorbs hydrogen onto its surface with unparalleled capacity:
http://jss.ecsdl.org/content/2/10/M3160.full
Not stated there is the finding that it is simultaneously impenetrable to hydrogen.  Surfaces coated with graphene simply don't leak hydrogen, as ordinary materials do.  Copper and nickel are among the easiest substrates on which to deposit graphene layers.  Pipelines and storage tanks thus shouldn't be that difficult to mass-produce, eventually.
Furthermore, solar energy can be efficiently used to generate hydrogen.
But we're easily years away from commercial application of these technologies.

I'm further skeptical of your rosy assessment of the fall in CO2 levels if human emissions cease.  But I'm not enough of an expert in the carbon cycle to quantify my skepticism.

jai mitchell

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #117 on: May 04, 2014, 12:00:23 AM »
Interesting paper on Graphene, took a looksee but it pretty much showed only theoretical structures.  This is, in my mind, an equivalent to a paper on tokomak nuclear fusion.  Theoretically and experimentally possible but not practical or really useful (yet).  However, most of the leakage I am talking about comes from fittings and valves.  Hydrogen is very crafty stuff!

The atmospheric fraction info can be accessed by the links above but more on it can be found here:

http://skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=112&p=2

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JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #118 on: May 04, 2014, 03:49:33 AM »
jai

 
Clearing the Air

1.  Hydrogen Cars are a myth started by the oil industry.  While the power density looks favorable, leakage and corrosion issues make fueling infrastructure impossible.  In addition, the majority of the modeled production of hydrogen comes as a byproduct of oil refinement.  It is a backdoor oil policy dressed up as green.  (A nuclear equivalent of this would be the National Ignition Facility which was billed as a fusion energy research platform but was really a bomb project)

2.  The Navigant study severely understates the Electric Vehicle future sales.  This is because they rely on the Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Administration's projection of gasoline prices.

These prices are severely understated.  What most people don't realize is that the "fracking revolution" isn't about natural gas AT ALL, it is about oil.

The value of oil sold from the shale fields is worth about 4 times as much as the value of natural gas sold from those wells.  Plus, the rate of drop off in production for those wells makes them "crash".  So they need to continually drill more wells to maintain production.  Once the oil is gone, the natural gas is no longer profitable to produce and they close up the well.

As written item 2 contains some errors.  There are a lot of ways to couch an argument about the EIA or IEA mis-projecting future gasoline prices.  And one can do that by describing issues about oil production from fracking operations in the Bakken and elsewhere.  But not the way it was done above.  Natural gas production has almost nothing to do with trying to figure out future gasoline pricing.  This is since crude oil and natural gas are not used in the same way and are not fungible.

The Bakken information you quote is indeed accurate for that field, but the Bakken is, as you point out, primarily an oil field from which the production companies generate extra income by capturing most of the natural gas naturally found in that reservoir.  Any information about the declines in the Bakken resulting in lower natural gas production when the wells are shut down due to low oil production apply to their effect on natural gas prices not gasoline prices.  The surge in US oil production from the oil shales is indeed oversold and will be difficult to maintain for very many years.  This is hidden from the general public by a wave of propaganda put forth by the oil industry and various political entities.  I agree with you that the rapid well depletion profiles indicate trouble coming and also the typical fact that the oil companies always drill the most productive areas first.  Depletion rates are going to get worse, not better, and this will eventually put upward pressure on gasoline prices.  In response the oil industry intends to work these kind of formations for all they are worth of course, get Congress to allow off-shore drilling along the continental coasts, open up the wildlife refuge in Alaska to drilling, and vastly increase tar sands production in Canada.  Some of this will happen and some will not.  Not knowing which or when makes it very difficult to predict future gasoline prices.  Not to mention the impact that the future state of the global financial system has on gasoline demand being a factor.  Almost no one has a long -term good track record on predicting gasoline prices.  Caution is in order.

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In addition, the Navigant study does not project the implementation of a carbon tax.  The implementation of this tax, coupled with future oil price increases will make electric cars much more viable.

It is only an opinion that carbon taxes will be implemented and doing so is country dependent.  I suspect that it will be quite some time  before any such tax is implemented in the US for instance.  If ever.  And it will not be a certain occurrence in many other locations either.  If both the rise in gasoline prices occurs and the carbon taxes are implemented globally then your statement would likely be true.  But there is no certainty here at all.

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3.  The Department of Energy is putting significant effort into the development of solar roadways.  They have a working prototype and the cost of asphalt has gone up so much now that the new solar roadway,   Video Here: coupled with wireless charging infrastructure placed under these solar roadways will allow electric vehicles to charge while driving and prevent the 10% line losses   http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9247958/TDK_moves_quickly_to_commercialize_wireless_charging_for_electric_cars  will make electric vehicles the primary mode of transportation.  Note: this technology also works for public transportation as well.

Do you actually think this is likely to occur?  On a wide scale?  Think of the costs and implementation issues.   How many years from now would this idea even be a possibility?  I watched your video and read your link and looked up a few others.  This is very leading edge research and is completely impractical to even consider until a host of engineering problems are solved.  The wiki page  clearly states that this technology would require we strip all the roads and that installation would be much more expensive than asphalt roads.  As they stated there are 25,000 sq miles of roads in the US.  This type of technology is far too impractical to be a viable candidate to making a big difference.  What happens when it is covered in ice and snow or when a snowplow runs over it?  How long will they last under the wear of heavy vehicles?  What one thinks of this is just opinion and my opinion of it is we will never see it deployed on a significant scale.  But it may teach us something and eventually be used somewhere on a limited scale.  Maybe the decks of aircraft carriers?

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4.  If we globally reduce our per capita emissions to 1 tonne per person per year the Anthropogenic emissions would be 7.2 Gigatonnes per year.   Globally, the earth naturally removes 55% of the human-caused CO2 from the atmosphere each year. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/co2conference/posters_pdf/jones1_poster.pdf (this is equal to 17.6 Gigatonnes going mostly into the oceans each year)   A reduction in global emission from the current 32 Gigatonnes per year to 7.2 Gigatonnes per year would mean that the earth would naturally sequester approximately 10 Gigatonnes of CO2 from the current atmospheric abundance.

Since it takes 7.81 Gigatonnes for 1 part per million volume in the atmosphere http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45  This would mean that the atmospheric abundance of CO2 would go down by 1.2 ppmv per year.

Well 7.2 Gtonnes if it was done today.  Population projections for 2050 would result in 9.6 Gtonnes or so by then.  But one must take into account that a number as low 1 tonne each is pretty fantastical given human desires to maintain civilization as we know it.  Per capita emissions are approximately 5 tonnes now.    BTW emissions are actually about 36 Gtonnes per year now not 32.  There is no near term prospect for significantly changing that number.  Especially since global emissions are growing both on a total basis as well as a per capita basis the last few years - 2% last year.  And we need to keep in mind that the are indications that the ocean will not be taking in as much in the future as it is now and positive feedbacks of things like methane releases will be growing and not controllable in any meaningful way.  We do not get to 1 tonne per capita with any thing resembling modern civilization in my opinion.   YMMV but figuring out how to get to that place is damned hard.

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5.  These ideas assume a free-market response instead of a command economy response.  In wartime, the command economy response is the only solution.  We are soon approaching a "war on warming".  As people understand that their children will de if we don't then they will rally for these kind of changes.  A command economy approach in 10 years will transform our transportation sector and reduce oil consumption by 90% in 5 years.

I beg to differ on your numbers.  Provide some explanation of the mechanism which gets us to a global command economy ten years from now.  The probability of that seems so minute that I count it as totally unrealistic.  I won't even ask about the 90% reduction in only 5 years of effort. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

jai mitchell

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #119 on: May 04, 2014, 05:49:40 AM »
This is another good read on the bakken oil collapse coming.

Another reason that future prices are understated is that the global oil depletion of traditional resources is still occurring but because of the bubble economy of the fracking revolution in America, almost 90% of all new global oil production capacity has taken place in the U.S.  Therefore the global demand has risen due to this bubble and when the fracking collapse happens in 10-15 years there will be a severe under supply.

Here is the article.  http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/12/shale-oil-might-be-less-awesome-we-think



I agree that the solar roadways are very speculative.  However, there are significant advantages such as heating which allows for significantly less ice and snow accumulation.  The precept for the idea is that cost per paved mile of roadway has increased by a significant amount in the last 5 years (the video says tenfold but I am not sure If that is true)   In this case, the new roadway, while being 3 times more expensive would produce energy for sale and have significant savings associated with it.  Glass is a very durable element if made correctly, it is much more resilient than concrete.  However, I agree it is a technology that will need to be developed by the government, using billions of dollars of material investment and then implemented in a national work-relief infrastructure transformation program.

With regard to the command economy.  I model the U.S. working independently from the global market and implementing a WWII style mobilization.  This changes the global economy.  When the U.S. implements a carbon trade tariff on imports and renews the domestic manufacturing of infrastructure, in a command economy environment, it will force other nations to decarbonize. 
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #120 on: May 04, 2014, 03:24:53 PM »
The gas which is co-produced with shale oil from the Bakken shale field is so cheap that much of it is flared off rather than captured. Here is a photo from space.

No, that bright spot in North Dakota is not a new city rivaling Chicago but gas flares seen from space.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #121 on: May 06, 2014, 08:17:32 PM »
IEA has released its "Global EV Outlook."
Quote
By helping to diversify the fuel mix, EVs reduce dependence on petroleum and tap into a source of electricity that is often domestic and relatively inexpensive. Just as important, EVs have the potential to unlock innovation and create new advanced industries that spur job growth and enhance economic prosperity.

In the long-term, EVs are important to countries seeking to decarbonise the transport sector. Figure 1 illustrates the key role of transport CO2 reductions in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) “2DS” scenario (2°C Scenario), which describes a future energy system that would limit average global temperature increases to 2°C by 2050. In this scenario, the transport sector’s potential share of overall CO2 reductions would be 21% by 2050. In order to meet this share, three-fourths of all vehicle sales by 2050 would need to be plug-in electric of some type.
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,37024,en.html
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Anne

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #122 on: May 12, 2014, 05:39:15 PM »
The UK progressive think tank, the Institute for Public Policy Research, proposes that wealthier drivers should pay more to use the roads. They look at examples from Oregon, Stockholm and Milan.

The policy document is here:
http://www.ippr.org/publications/the-long-road-to-ruin-why-the-uk-needs-to-reform-motoring-taxes

The Daily Mail is, predictably, up in arms.

icefest

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #123 on: May 13, 2014, 12:10:13 AM »
Interesting article Anne, 

That brings up the point that for years a large part of road taxes in many countries has been done via fuel taxes/excises with people who drive more and use more fuel paying more taxes - relatively fair..

I wonder how road taxes will be collected once there are a significant amount of electric cars with distributed charging on the roads.
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Anne

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #124 on: May 13, 2014, 01:13:17 AM »
Sorry, icefest, I gave the link to the summary, not the full report, which is here:
http://www.ippr.org/assets/media/publications/pdf/The-long-road-to-ruin_May2014.pdf

The main reason for the suggested reform is the projected decline in revenue from fuel duty as cars become more fuel-efficient. Additional reasons given are social justice and health and environmental.

They suggest abolishing vehicle excise duty, reducing tax on fuel and introducing road pricing. They suggest using electronic tracking, including the controversial eCall technology, which could make short journeys or journeys at busy times relatively expensive. And possibly make richer people pay more.
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Theoretically a replacement motoring tax in the UK  could be progressive by linking information on vehicle ownership held by the DVLA to information on income held by HMRC.
The paper also discusses the best way of selling the idea to the electorate: it will be a brave government that takes this on.

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« Reply #125 on: May 13, 2014, 04:49:07 AM »
I don't have time right now to read the full report, but this might interest you Anne: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/drivers-may-pay-per-kilometre-20140312-34n3e.html
« Last Edit: May 13, 2014, 09:49:08 AM by icefest »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #126 on: May 14, 2014, 03:25:43 AM »
Hilarious cartoon review of the Tesla Model S electric car, by an owner.  You're welcome. ;D

http://theoatmeal.com/comics/tesla_model_s
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #127 on: May 14, 2014, 06:11:49 PM »
Hilarious cartoon review of the Tesla Model S electric car, by an owner.  You're welcome. ;D

http://theoatmeal.com/comics/tesla_model_s

Excellent! I am also now a fan of the mantis shrimp...  ;D

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #128 on: May 15, 2014, 08:38:46 PM »
In Asia, the venerable (and dirty) "tuk-tuk" is being replaced by an electric trike.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/13/world/asia/japan-electric-tricycles/index.html
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #129 on: May 18, 2014, 11:34:35 PM »
Gas and diesel cars use more electricity than EVs?


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« Reply #130 on: May 19, 2014, 02:18:11 AM »
ghoti

Interesting.  I would note that a properly performed EROEI calculation takes that energy into account.

It takes electricity to make fossil fuels and it takes fossil fuels to make electricity (and to make most of the renewable power generation equipment too).  It is a dilemma. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #131 on: May 19, 2014, 03:42:44 AM »
Key words there  are "properly performed".

I'd suggest this can't be said of the vast majority of coverage of costs and risks of anything we use. Since society tends to favour the status quo we generally under estimate the costs and risks of current (old, established) technology and over estimate the costs and risks of the new (maybe better, maybe not).

As a result we get silly beliefs becoming memes - like wind turbines as bird killers and solar PV as heavy water users and both as grid killers. But somehow gas, diesel, coal are better for everything. You can be sure the reports that claim EVs use as much carbon and ICE vehicle didn't include 100% coal generated electricity used in the gas production but somehow claims huge amounts of carbon used in the battery production. They certainly didn't include lithium mined and refined in Quebec using 100% hydro electricity.

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« Reply #132 on: May 19, 2014, 05:12:38 PM »
One thing that is certain.  The ardent advocates of both sides of the energy issue are both guilty of ignoring unpleasant facts.

This is one of my main points.  Looked at from the outside it seems pretty clear that neither approach is workable in terms of solving AGW or even dealing substantially with it.

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #133 on: May 27, 2014, 04:15:30 PM »
...and trains?   "Sun kinks" are another danger from extreme heat.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-warp-railroad-tracks-sun-kinks-17470
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #134 on: May 27, 2014, 06:01:13 PM »
Sig

Good point about trains.  It is surprising we do not have a topic for them.  Cars have no future in a sustainable system.  Trains may be about as close as you can get.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Laurent

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #135 on: May 30, 2014, 10:08:31 AM »
Chinese Inventor Builds a Scooter That Doubles As a Suitcase
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/05/29/chinese-inventor-builds-a-scooter-that-doubles-as-a-suitcase/

Ok, just for a smile...

Laurent

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #136 on: June 08, 2014, 11:24:44 PM »
If you want to recharge you very expensive Tesla  ;):
http://chargemap.com/

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« Reply #137 on: June 09, 2014, 12:23:50 PM »
A Tesla may be expensive, but you are paying up front largely. Oh, and supercharging is free for life.  That's at least worth 40-50 dollars a whack.  That can add up quick.  There are zero oil changes, no transmission, regenerative braking means you will rarely replace brakes. Tesla purposely built their motor, which is smaller than a watermelon, to reduce the use of rare earth metals.  It going to be interesting how many miles an electric motor car handle as opposed to an internal combustion engine.  The gigafactory would build batteries from raw materials, as well as recycling, or refurbishing for use in on site storage.  And be powered through solar and wind.

In the United States, car dealerships make most of their money servicing vehicles.  Elon Musk has repeatedly said he doesn't believe in that model, not too mention, dealers giving different prices to different buyers.  The car salesman is NOT looking out for the consumers best interests. That's why the dealerships are trying to ban sales.  The price for a Tesla is the same for everyone.

The end game for Elon Musk is to transform all modes of transportation.  He will remain at Tesla until the more affordable, mass market Tesla hits the market, he can't exercise many of his stick options till then.  He only got paid a salary of about 70,000 to lead Tesla in 2013.  SpaceX is his real passion. I really believe this guy just wants to use all his money to get a man on Mars.

"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #138 on: June 09, 2014, 01:15:05 PM »
And if you want to charge your somewhat less expensive Nissan LEAF, Chevy Volt, etc.:  :D

http://www.plugshare.com/

Plugshare not only lists commercial charging stations, but "home" locations of people willing to let others charge at their residences.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #139 on: June 09, 2014, 02:39:11 PM »
I agree that electric cars are not as good a solution as individuals traveling less, using mass transit whee they do travel and simply not owning cars.
However, that simply isn't going to happen until some calamity that the general public ties directly with CO2 output AND is convinced that worse calamities are inevitable.

So until we get politicians out of office that intentionally obfuscate GW it is, in my mind, far better to get people to use a mode of transportation that does less damage than the gas powered ones they are currently driving.

Replace the BMWs and Audis, Mercedes, Lexus cars with Teslas.

Far better to get 200,000 people to use a 50% solution than 2000 people using a 100% solution.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #140 on: June 10, 2014, 02:03:56 PM »
Although the luxury car category has the highest percentage of electric cars, non-luxury EV sales volume is actually much higher:  17,688, versus 6,891, in 1Q2014.
http://www.plugincars.com/luxury-ev-sales-outpace-overall-market-129758.html

California has a mandate that 4.5% by 2018, and 15% by 2025, of a manufacturer's sales must be plug-in EVs.  Seven other states are also adopting that requirement, and 10 more are rumored to be considering something similar.
Quote
Automakers face penalties for non-compliance. Today, manufacturers who don’t produce electric vehicles must buy Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credits from those who do. During 2012 and 2013, such companies as Chrysler, General Motors, and Honda bought ZEV credits from sellers such as Tesla, with the dollar amounts running into the tens of millions. For Tesla, the credits were an important business consideration, drawing $67.9 million in into its coffers during just the first quarter of 2013, according to numerous news reports.
http://www.designnews.com/author.asp?section_id=1366&doc_id=271798&itc=dn_analysis_element&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_auto,industry_alt,industry_gov,bid_318,aid_271798&dfpLayout=blog

Elon Musk is talking about opening up his Tesla EV patents, to help advance the industry.
http://gizmodo.com/tesla-might-just-open-up-its-electric-car-patents-1587851265/+pranavdixit

His "200-mile-range EV priced for the masses" due in 2016 could be a game-changer.
http://www.autonews.com/article/20130604/OEM05/130609958/affordable-tesla-to-arrive-in-late-2016
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #142 on: June 10, 2014, 07:19:19 PM »
The "electric car versus no-car" debate feels a lot like the "nuclear versus no-nuclear" debate.  The first choice is the easiest way to help reduce carbon emissions quickly -- but do we want more of that for the long term?

@NissanLEAF recently tweeted: "C02 emissions have been reduced by more than 133,000,000 kg globally thanks to the #NissanLEAF."

Note also that not all the EV fueling comes from the grid!  A 2012 study of EV owners found 39% had their own solar photovoltaic system, and another 17% were seriously considering it within the next year.  Larger commercial EV charging sites are also commonly solar powered.

"@TeslaRoadTrip: These 4 huge solar canopies generate enough electricity per year for 2 MILLION Electric Miles! #WVEV http://t.co/RjYVEYgDfW  "

http://www.builtbymichigan.org/newsletter/articles/2013/07/electric-cars-and-solar-panels-which-ones-gateway-drug
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Anne

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #143 on: June 10, 2014, 07:38:31 PM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #144 on: June 11, 2014, 02:03:17 AM »
Ecotricity has built an "Electric Highway" series of EV chargers all across the UK that are solar-powered and free to use.  They serve various charging configurations and are located at existing service stations.

http://www.chargepointservices.co.uk/Projects/Electric-Highway
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Laurent

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #145 on: June 12, 2014, 08:48:38 AM »
Iowa Man's Cadillac Burns Wood To Burn Rubber
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/11/wood-fired-cadillac_n_5486125.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green

Hum may be not ecological...I would see it smaller...with a more light car (500 Kg max) and a mass heater burning branches...


Laurent

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #146 on: June 13, 2014, 01:00:43 AM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #147 on: June 21, 2014, 04:38:31 PM »
Swiss institute develops bus that re-charges in 15 seconds.
http://grist.org/list/this-magic-bus-recharges-while-you-dig-for-your-fare
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #148 on: June 23, 2014, 06:40:05 PM »
Slides from the IEA Oil medium term market report.
More than 5 1⁄2 in every 10 barrels of oil are used for transport, including 4 for road transport.
Less and less oil is being used for power generation and residential heating.
http://www.iea.org/media/140617_MediumTermOilMarketReport2014_Slides.pdf?utm_content=buffer23fe3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #149 on: June 23, 2014, 07:43:12 PM »
Harley just brought out a development motorcycle today.  They plan to sell an electric motorcycle in the next 2 years or more.

More and more electric......and less and less fossil fuels.  It is going to be a LONG TRANSITION....but it is continuing to gain steam.



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