Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

[Sigmetnow]

More on the VW settlement, mostly about the financial aspects.

VW Board Set to Sign Off on $4.3 Billion U.S. Diesel Penalty

The accord raises the cost of settlements in the scandal so far to more than $23 billion in the U.S. and Canada, blowing through the 18.2 billion euros ($19.2 billion) the carmaker had set aside to resolve the disputes. At the same time, it would remove one of the last big regulatory obstacles for Volkswagen before the Jan. 20 inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S. president, enabling the carmaker to begin rebuilding its reputation in the country and focus on plans for clean-energy vehicles.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-10/volkswagen-confirms-4-3-billion-settlement-with-u-s-on-diesel-issue

[Sigmetnow]

Fiat Chrysler shares plunge 13% after EPA accuses automaker of using deceptive software

Shares of Fiat Chrysler fell more than 13 percent on Thursday after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency accused the automaker of using software that allowed excess diesel emissions in about 104,000 vehicles.

The U.S.-listed shares of Fiat Chrysler plunged as much as 18 percent Thursday after Reuters first reported the news. The automaker's stock was briefly halted after the EPA made the announcement.

The agency alleged Fiat Chrysler violated the Clean Air Act by installing and failing to disclose "engine management software in light-duty model year 2014, 2015 and 2016 Jeep Grand Cherokees and Dodge Ram 1500 trucks with 3.0 liter diesel engines sold in the United States."

The undisclosed software results increased nitrogen oxide emissions from the vehicles, the EPA said. The Justice Department is reportedly working with the EPA on this issue.

The company could be liable for civil penalties and injunctive relief for the alleged violations, the EPA said. It said it is also investigating whether the auxiliary emission control devices constitute "defeat devices," which are illegal. ...

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/12/epa-to-accuse-fiat-chrysler-of-using-software-that-allowed-excess-diesel-emissions-in-about-100k-vehicles.html

[Sigmetnow]

Here's Electrek's take:

EPA says Chrysler is latest automaker to cheat on emission tests, showing that EVs are the best way forward

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today issued a notice of violation to Fiat Chrysler (FCA) over alleged violations of the Clean Air Act for installing and failing to disclose engine management software that changed the emission results of their vehicles – just like several other automakers over the past year.

While those ‘DieselGate’ scandals are disappointing for the light they shine on what is an unscrupulous corporate culture of cheating, they also clearly show that the best way to reduce emissions from vehicles is electric propulsion and not increasingly more deceivingly efficient diesel engines.
...
CARB Chair Mary D. Nichols said that Chrysler’s cheat was a “business decision to skirt the rules”:

“Once again, a major automaker made the business decision to skirt the rules and got caught. CARB and U.S. EPA made a commitment to enhanced testing as the Volkswagen case developed, and this is a result of that collaboration.”

Volkswagen’s case clearly showed that the only way to keep reducing emission with diesel engines is to cheat the results and therefore, a new technology needs to be implemented in order to truly reduce vehicle emissions....

https://electrek.co/2017/01/12/epa-chrysler-cheating-emission-test/

[mati]

cross posting from the batteries forum:

Self driving vehicles have a big headache, and that is safety certification of hardware and software ( i work on safety certified software that is in many many airframes).  This includes making the self driving features unhackable (like the sw that FLIES an airplane).

The cost to certify is reasonable for the airlines when looking at the price per unit of a say 787, and the development time.  However for automotive, most systems now are "driver assist" systems not self driving.

While the push is on for self driving vehicles, i guess that they are really about 10-15 years away before hardware and software get to a maturity level where they are certifiable.

otherwise the driver must be behind the wheel, and ready to take over as the safety function for the vehicle.

[Sigmetnow]

Mati wrote @#1453: "While the push is on for self driving vehicles, i guess that they are really about 10-15 years away before hardware and software get to a maturity level where they are certifiable."

I think you will be quite surprised at how fast autonomous driving develops -- much faster than you suggest.  Since last October, all new Teslas come with hardware (including a liquid-cooled supercomputer!) and software (featuring automatic fleet learning and over-the-air updates) which will enable fully autonomous driving.  Elon Musk plans to demonstrate a U.S. coast-to-coast drive entirely autonomously (including charging!) late this year. (Albeit with a safety driver, for legal reasons, I assume.)

Currently, Tesla's purely autonomous "Summon" feature is useable, on private property, to have your Tesla open your garage door and move out to your driveway to meet you (or to enter your garage and park when you get home).

All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware
https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware

https://www.wired.com/2016/10/teslas-self-driving-car-plan-seems-insane-just-might-work/

http://fortune.com/2016/10/20/tesla-self-driving-hardware-matters/


Other autonomous vehicles are already in public service:
Self-Driving Bus Arrives in Maryland, with IBM Watson as Concierge
http://m.electronicdesign.com/iot/self-driving-bus-arrives-maryland-ibm-watson-concierge

This first autonomous truck delivery used a selected section of highway in Colorado. (A human drove the other parts of the trip.)
Uber Self-Driving Truck Packed With Budweiser Makes First Delivery in Colorado
The ride-hailing giant teamed up with AB InBev to transport beer in an autonomous vehicle, which they say is the world’s first such commercial delivery.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/uber-self-driving-truck-packed-with-budweiser-makes-first-delivery-in-colorado


Thus, the capability is very close, and several hundred thousand fully-autonomous-equipped Teslas will be on the roads by this time next year.  So regulators know they must act quickly.

Tesla has been working closely with NHTSA and the California DOT for years, to help accelerate passage of the necessary regulations.  Tesla is well on the way to the several billion miles of data Elon Musk figures will be required to show the necessary safety of the system.  "...Tesla’s fleet has reached 3 billion miles driven and Tesla confirmed to Electrek last [November] that 1.3 billion of those miles were driven by Tesla vehicles with Autopilot hardware."
https://electrek.co/2016/11/13/tesla-autopilot-billion-miles-data-self-driving-program/

This article shows how fast the Tesla fleet has accumulated miles:
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-passes-1-billion-miles-driven/


Many states already have regulations in place, especially for testing, while they work on legislation.

California "Permits autonomous vehicles to be operated or tested on the public roads in this state pending the adoption of safety standards and performance requirements that would be adopted under this bill."

Automated Driving: Legislative and Regulatory Action
http://cyberlaw.stanford.edu/wiki/index.php/Automated_Driving:_Legislative_and_Regulatory_Action

AUTONOMOUS | SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES LEGISLATION
http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/autonomous-vehicles-legislation.aspx


Edit: no discussion of autonomous driving would be complete without this video of a Tesla driving completely by itself, reacting to stop signs and traffic lights, and parking itself at its destination:
https://www.tesla.com/videos/autopilot-self-driving-hardware-neighborhood-long


Another edit: "If you think self-driving cars are coming soon, you're wrong. They're already here. Uber has a fleet of self-driving cars working the streets of Pittsburgh right now...." A safety driver and a technician ride in the front seats to monitor the ride and take over when necessary.
  Uber’s Pittburgh robotaxis amuse riders, still struggle with double parked cars
http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/uber-pittsburgh-robo-taxi-experiment/

[Sigmetnow]

The changing face of EV charging

There was quite the dilemma a few years ago, when public charging infrastructure was not being built out because there were so few EVs, and people weren't buying EVs in part because the charging infrastructure was so limited.  Then Tesla went all-in and made the cars and installed Superchargers -- fast charging stations that only worked with Tesla cars, and were free for Tesla cars to use.  (Teslas have adapters that allow them to use most other, slower chargers, as well; but on long trips, it's convenient to "fill up" in 30-45 minutes rather than the several hours required of slower charging methods.)

In recent years, Tesla Supercharging has become so popular that some stations become completely filled with charging cars, and lines form awaiting their turn to charge.  Last month, Tesla began charging an "idle fee" if cars were left in a charging stall at busy locations more than a few minutes after completing a charge.  Now, with large numbers of Tesla Model 3 cars to be added to the fleet later this year, Tesla has revised the "free supercharging for the life of the car" perk.  New Model S and X cars will be allowed 400 kWh (about 1,000 miles) of free supercharging a year; beyond that, there will be a cost, deducted automatically per minute or kWh, at a rate depending on the country or U.S. state where the charger is located.  (Model 3 charging information has not yet been revealed.)

Tesla releases the details of its new Supercharger Credit program
https://electrek.co/2017/01/12/tesla-supercharger-credit-program/

Here is Tesla's announcement, with an FAQ section:
https://www.tesla.com/support/supercharging


Also in the works:  Supercharging version 3, which may bring down charging time to 10 minutes or less!  Several automakers in Europe have also announced "ultrafast" chargers -- but most EVs today cannot accept such high input.
https://electrek.co/2016/12/24/tesla-supercharger-v3-over-350-off-grid-solar-powerpack-elon-musk

[Sigmetnow]

Four US cities are looking into making a massive order of 24,000 electric cars, potentially good for Tesla Model 3 and Chevy Bolt EV?

The cities said the inquiry is the first of its kind in uniting municipalities from different states. The goal, they said, was to show the purchasing power of local governments in the EV market. The cities said they are aiming to cut greenhouse gas emissions, decrease reliance on fossil fuels, improve air quality, and reduce fuel and maintenance costs by an average 37 percent.

The administrations of the cities are looking for others to joined in on the project and Matt Petersen, chief sustainability officer for LA Mayor Garcetti, thinks the order could increase to “perhaps even 100,000”.

https://electrek.co/2017/01/13/us-cities-electric-cars-order-tesla-model-3-chevy-bolt-ev/


Although the Bolt and the Model 3 come to mind, the Bolt is limited by the numbers of batteries LG Chem can produce, which is currently 30,000 to 50,000 a year (and GM is said to be losing thousands of dollars on each car, mostly made up by credits from ZEV states);  and Tesla does not give discounts on its cars, and anyway Model 3 production is currently sold out until mid-2018 at least.  But this is a great show of support for EVs!

[Sigmetnow]

"As of the first of January this year, all public transport trains in the Netherlands are being powered by renewable energy, namely from wind power."

https://futurism.com/all-dutch-trains-now-run-on-100-wind-power/

[Sigmetnow]

Carmakers in DC’s Crosshairs in Final Days Before Trump

With a week to go before Donald Trump becomes president, the Obama administration has unleashed a final, multiprong effort on enforcement and regulation in the automotive industry, with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV now at the fore.

On Friday alone, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency rejected automakers’ bid to weaken fuel-efficiency standards, news broke that federal authorities had opened a criminal investigation into Fiat Chrysler over its handling of emissions in 104,000 SUVs and pickup trucks, while embattled supplier Takata Corp. agreed to plead guilty and pay $1 billion to settle a U.S. probe into its exploding airbags linked to at least 17 deaths worldwide.

Together the developments -- along with this week’s $4.3 billion in fines and penalties against Volkswagen AG for its diesel-emissions cheating and the indictment of three Takata executives -- mark one of the most aggressive industry-related moves since the Obama administration helped General Motors Co. and the former Chrysler LLC through bankruptcy in 2009.

The question now is how Trump, who campaigned on promises to revive the fossil-fuel industry and roll back environmental regulation, will respond to steps the auto industry says will hurt jobs and cost consumers.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-13/carmakers-in-washington-s-crosshairs-in-final-days-before-trump

[dnem]

A couple of days ago Scribbler put up a rah-rah post about EVs:
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/01/12/the-electric-vehicles-are-coming-global-sales-likely-to-exceed-1-million-during-2017/

Scribbler has banned me because I tend to question his rosy assessment of renewables and their ability to solve the human sustainability crisis.  I'm wondering what others think here.  His post has a graph showing an estimated global sales in 2017 of plug-in vehicles of about 850,000 units and a global EV fleet of about 2.1 million units.  The current ICE global vehicle fleet is around 1.2 BILLION units and expected to grow to 2 billion by 2035. Global auto sales are now around 84 million units/yr and "could" to rise to 127 million/yr by 2035:
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1093560_1-2-billion-vehicles-on-worlds-roads-now-2-billion-by-2035-report

So even at an EV growth rate of say 30%/yr sustained it will take DECADES to wash ICE vehicles out of the global fleet.  And then we need to consider the impact of the enormous retooling of the global auto industry that will need to take place to build 10s of millions of EVs per year.  And build and replace and recycle 10s of millions of batteries per year (which have serious supply chain issues including rare earth elements).

I think my final offense that got me banned was saying something like "A Tesla in every driveway of every comfortable detached suburban home is NOT going to get us where we need to go." 

To me, a world that builds and uses 100+ million new vehicles EVERY YEAR is utterly, totally, completely untenable.  We need a different paradigm that does not rely on an insane quantity of new vehicles of any sort every year.  That may be a pipe dream, but no less so than thinking that simply growing the adoption rate of EVs without dramatically changing the underlying paradigm will get us out of our predicament. IMO!

[Hefaistos]

... estimated global sales in 2017 of plug-in vehicles of about 850,000 units and a global EV fleet of about 2.1 million units.  The current ICE global vehicle fleet is around 1.2 BILLION units and expected to grow to 2 billion by 2035. Global auto sales are now around 84 million units/yr and "could" to rise to 127 million/yr by 2035
So even at an EV growth rate of say 30%/yr sustained it will take DECADES to wash ICE vehicles out of the global fleet. 

With a 30% growth rate/y it will actually take 27 years or so to get from 2.1 million to 2 billion EV's, se figures below. It's not unrealistic, and it shows that we can quickly phase out ICE cars.
Another question is if there will be demand for so many cars, once self-driving über fleets/carpools start to become competitively priced.

1   2100000
2   2730000
3   3 549 000
4   4 613 700
5   5 997 810
6   7 797 153
7   10 136 299
8   13 177 189
9   17 130 345
10   22 269 449
11   28 950 283
12   37 635 368
13   48 925 979
14   63 603 772
15   82 684 904
16   107 490 375
17   139 737 488
18   181 658 734
19   236 156 355
20   307 003 261
21   399 104 239
22   518 835 511
23   674 486 164
24   876 832 014
25   1 139 881 618
26   1 481 846 103
27   1 926 399 934

[dnem]

First, sales for 2017 are estimated at 850,000 units so it would takes, yes, close to three decades for all expected new cars to be EVs.  Do you think we have three decades to replace the ICE fleet?  And that's IF we can sustain a 30% year on year growth rate.

Here's an optimistic assessment:
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/06/24/fast-ev-market-grow/
Various policy driven scenarios show electric vehicles (EVs) gaining market share over the next few decades but the question is by how much. According to Adam Whitmore, independent energy advisor, there are reasons to assume that annual sales of EVs will account for 7-22% of the vehicle stock by 2030. By 2050 they will account for a majority of light vehicles on the road.

A majority means more than half.  By most projections of global fleet size that means on the order of 1 BILLION ICE vehicles still in the global fleet by 2050.

What about battery replacement? What about rare earths? What about just the sheer size and scope of the industry to make 100 million vehicles a year.

That's my point. We can make these projections that EVs can "take over the market."  But will that happen and will that solve the sustainability crisis?

[Hefaistos]

As soon as there i an infrastructure in place in terms of mass-scale production facilities for EV's and batteries ('giga-factories'), as well as charging stations nation-wide, the growth of EV sales will explode. (However, I don't rule out that fuel cell technology will be a strong competitor to battery EV's in a few years time.)
This development will be helped by regulations that will price out standard ICE vehicles in favor of renewably powered electric ones. The Battery EVs will likely sport 1,000 mile range and superior performance already in 10 years time.
Why would anyone even want an ICE?
Why worry about rare earths, when - on a larger scale - the whole earth is under strong threat from climate change? Green BAU is what we'll have to live with, as long as consumerism rules the minds of the masses.

[crandles]

Why worry about rare earths, when Tesla doesn't use any in its batteries?

Magnamentis @#324 re rare earth elements:

Re Tesla batteries:

Elon Musk: Battery uses no rare Earth metals. Main ingredient is nickel, which is what's used to coat cutlery, so very non-toxic.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/718121595101782016

[Buddy]

Why would anyone even want an ICE?

That day is coming more quickly than people realize.  Battery costs CONTINUE to be pushed down.  And there are several advances coming out in the next few years that will advance the battery AND/OR capacitors.  Musk thinks the longer term breakthrough will be in capacitors instead of batteries.  Either way....the ICE is heading towards its death.  Only a matter of time.

And I think 2 or 3 years from now.....when that "horizon" comes into clearer focus....you will have people ask themselves that EXACT QUESTION:  "Why would I buy an ICE?"  They may as well buy a black and white TV....

[dnem]

>Why would anyone even want an ICE?

Well gee, of course.  I have a 2005 Prius and will drive it until it (or the batteries) die, and then will most surely get an EV.  I also have a 6.11 kW solar array on my roof so I'm ready to charge it with the sun.

I don't in ANY way question that the ICE is as dead as dead as dead can be.  What I question is if the world can support a system that produces over 100 million vehicles a year with a global fleet of over 2 billion.  No matter WHAT kind of vehicle that is.  THAT's my concern.  Two billion vehicles just says to me a world that hasn't really changed its ways.  It says we are still thinking we can just change the tech but not change our ways.  Two billion vehicles is two billion+ people firmly in the global consumption class.  With billions more clamoring to be in it. 

If you said we should be working toward a world with a few hundred million EVs (or less) satisfying the needs of a far less consumptive world, then I'd be all in.  But when it's just a BAU replacement of an awful, outdated technology with a bright and shiny new one that still has massive negative impacts across the globe, I'm going to have my doubts.

Re rare earths, yes I see that Tesla does not use any in their batteries or motor.  That's great.  There are surely some in the other electronics (nav, sensing, cameras, audio, other controls, etc.).

[Buddy]

I don't in ANY way question that the ICE is as dead as dead as dead can be.  What I question is if the world can support a system that produces over 100 million vehicles a year with a global fleet of over 2 billion.  No matter WHAT kind of vehicle that is.

We have all kinds of changes in the transportation industry playing out right now IN ADDITION to electric vehicles.

With the advent of Uber and such.....there will be less and less need for ADDITIONAL CARS.  If you have two cars.....you can probably get by with one (+ a Uber service).  If you have 3...you can probably get by with 2.

We're MAY also be at the beginning of a "less is more" generation.  Those that don't HAVE to "accumulate stuff" (like huge houses that are wasteful.....multiple cars that are wasteful.....etc).

Society will certainly come up AGAINST "supply issues" as we go through time.  Admittedly....we (society) is being REALLY SLOW to address them.  But like the truth....those supply issues will NEVER go away.  They will have to be deal with...and the sooner the better.

Also note.....who knows HOW we will be transporting ourselves in future decades/centuries. 

 

[Sigmetnow]

Fewer, and more useful, cars are in our future.

"Mobility as a Service" is poised to have more value than car manufacturers.  And autonomy will make it easier to achieve.  For example, Uber's biggest expense is its drivers.  Thus the CEO's comment to Elon Musk a few years ago that if Tesla made 500,000 autonomous cars, Uber would buy all of them. 
http://www.businessinsider.com/top-vc-claims-uber-ceo-said-he-wants-to-buy-500000-self-driving-cars-from-tesla-2015-7


Tesla's cars will soon create an autonomous fleet that any owner can join:

Elon Musk:  "You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation. ... Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not."

http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-reveals-tesla-shared-fleet-2016-7


Investor analysts think Mobility as a Service will triumph over ownership of a vehicle.

"Part of the explanation for this growing gap will be the substantially higher vehicle utilization that shared autonomous taxis will enable. We think the average MaaS vehicle will service more customer-miles, depressing auto unit sales and constraining OEM growth."

"We may be at the cusp of a substantial transformation in the mode of transport throughout the world."

The Autonomous Taxi Market: Worth 3X The Value of All Auto Manufacturers in 5 Years?
https://ark-invest.com/research/autonomous-taxi-market-value

[DrTskoul]

Self driing cars won't work until they are the majority on the streets...Kind of chicken and egg...

http://www.npr.org/2017/01/10/509086451/humans-worry-about-self-driving-cars-maybe-it-should-be-the-reverse

[Sigmetnow]

Here's another illustration.  With fully autonomous vehicles, a two- or three-car family can become a one-car family:

Mom takes the car, drops the daughter off at school, and heads to work. The car then returns home, and dad takes the infant to day care, then goes to work. After school, the car picks up the daughter and takes her to piano lessons. When she's finished, the car takes the daughter and picks up Mom at work and takes them to daycare to pick up the infant, and they go home. Then the car returns to pick up dad and take him home.

On the weekends, the parents summon a minivan, and pick up all the neighborhood kids going to their soccer game....

[Sigmetnow]

Self driing cars won't work until they are the majority on the streets...Kind of chicken and egg...

http://www.npr.org/2017/01/10/509086451/humans-worry-about-self-driving-cars-maybe-it-should-be-the-reverse

This sounds like the sort of thing pedestrians had to deal with back when human-driven cars started replacing (smarter?) horses.

There are some related moments on the Tesla video.  The car slows "unexpectedly" when a cyclist overtakes the car from behind, near a stop sign; and when the two joggers beside the road have a trajectory that would put them on the the roadway if they didn't turn.  Baby steps!
https://www.tesla.com/videos/autopilot-self-driving-hardware-neighborhood-long

Indeed, "Ethics" must be part of the autonomous programming.  If the choice is to hit a pedestrian, or to swerve into oncoming traffic and possibly kill both cars' occupants, which will it do?  That will have to be part of the algorithms that are agreed upon.

[Neven]

Here's another illustration.  With fully autonomous vehicles, a two- or three-car family can become a one-car family:

Mom takes the car, drops the daughter off at school, and heads to work. The car then returns home, and dad takes the infant to day care, then goes to work. After school, the car picks up the daughter and takes her to piano lessons. When she's finished, the car takes the daughter and picks up Mom at work and takes them to daycare to pick up the infant, and they go home. Then the car returns to pick up dad and take him home.

Let's hope all those places aren't too far apart, or the poor robot car will have a tough time.

---

Our Opel Combo definitely won't be allowed to be driven after January 31st, so we have two weeks left to come up with a solution. As said, I don't want to buy a used plug-in Prius now, as I expect them to become quite a bit cheaper over the next 12-18 months.

So, the options are:

1) Buy another used Opel Combo CNG. But I'm not so happy with Opel any more. We could still fix the Combo we have now, but I'm simply not willing to spend 4000 euros for a few specks of rust that could have easily been prevented if Opel or the dealer had told me about it a few years ago.
2) Buy another used car. I found this 21-year old Toyota that is in pretty good shape (old man polishing it twice a week) and I could perhaps use it next year when exchanging it for that Prius.
3) But then my wife said: Why don't we buy a used Prius first (she wants a car that uses as little gas as possible), and then perhaps exchange it for a plug-in version 1-2 years from now?

So, I went looking for Priuses, here and in the south of Germany, and darn it, I ran into this Prius in Munich, that was actually converted to a plug-in 5 years ago. Now, it's relatively cheap for a Prius, let alone a PHEV, but the seller doesn't mention it in the ad (i found out because of a picture he made). Either he doesn't know that it is a PHEV, or he doesn't say it is because there's something wrong with the battery or some such. The company that produced the conversion kit (6 kWh battery replacing the factory battery, so you can drive 15-20 miles full-electric) no longer exists, and I can't find user experiences with the conversion kit.

Coincidentally I found out the car was converted for a report on EV mobility back in 2011, so now I've asked the German research centre if they know what happened to the car afterwards. There have been three owners already, which increases my suspicion that this is just too good to be true.

I will call the seller tomorrow. If it isn't too good to be true, I'm going to Munich asap.

But it's probably too good to be true. 

[DrTskoul]

Probably a lemon by now...

[Sigmetnow]

Here's another illustration.  With fully autonomous vehicles, a two- or three-car family can become a one-car family:

Mom takes the car, drops the daughter off at school, and heads to work. The car then returns home, and dad takes the infant to day care, then goes to work. After school, the car picks up the daughter and takes her to piano lessons. When she's finished, the car takes the daughter and picks up Mom at work and takes them to daycare to pick up the infant, and they go home. Then the car returns to pick up dad and take him home.

Let's hope all those places aren't too far apart, or the poor robot car will have a tough time.

Or, we all need to learn to "chill" a bit, and loosen up our schedules. 


Best of luck with your EV adventures!

[oren]

I must join dnem here. First, all these rosy scenarios forget that there is a rest of the world, not every place is the US of A. Even if/when ICE cars die in the developed countries, they might still live on for a long time in the less developed world where somehow most people live and most population growth occurs.

In addition, mom and dad could use public transport, taxis (mobility as a service), carpooling and other stuff that they currently prefer to skip due to inconvenience and wasted time, and instead opt for the 3-car solution. They may very well still be doing that in 2050 unless this solution is somehow penalized for its wastefulness and environmental impact, or straight outlawed.

[Sigmetnow]

oren... One small step?

U.S. EPA locks in 2025 fuel efficiency rules
Legally binding decision is a bid to maintain a key part of the Obama administration's climate legacy

WASHINGTON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency chief Gina McCarthy on Friday finalized a determination that the landmark fuel efficiency rules instituted by President Barack Obama should be locked in through 2025, a bid to maintain a key part of his administration's climate legacy.

Major U.S. and foreign automakers have appealed to President-elect Donald Trump, who has been critical of Obama's climate policies, to review the rules requiring them to nearly double fleet-wide fuel efficiency by 2025, saying they impose significant costs and are out of step with consumer preferences.

As part of a 2012 regulation, EPA had to decide by April 2018 whether to modify the 2022-2025 model year vehicle emission rules requiring average fleet-wide efficiency of more than 50 miles per gallon. In November, the agency moved up the timetable for proposing that automakers can meet the 2025 standards.

http://news.trust.org/item/20170113151505-teosa/

[Buddy]

"Our view is that the industry offerings, 15 years from now, is that there is going to be more electrified offerings than there are internal combustion engines. So we want to build a reputation around that, we want to build our brand resonance around that," Fields said. "We want to be a leader in this area."

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/fords-ceo-reveals-plan-companys-234800850.html

Again...the "serious move" into electrics will START in 2 - 3 years....when consumers BEGIN to balk at ICE cars.  That movement of balking at ICE cars will ACCELERATE QUICKLY over the next 5 years....which takes us out to year 7 or 8 from now.  In 15 years....I don't think there will be much of a MEASUREABLE build of ICE cars and light trucks to buy. 

Between the cost of PV going down quickly.....the continued build up of PV at home/business....and the quickening of global warming......the movement AWAY from ICE will be faster than expected.

Ultimately.....CONSUMERS will decide that via supply/demand......

[dnem]

Or, we all need to learn to "chill" a bit, and loosen up our schedules. 

That basically sums up what I was trying to say!  I think communicating that a huge new industry is growing on the planet and that it is going to magically replace our crazed ICE car addiction with a clean shiny new one and not to worry folks is the wrong message to promote.  Sure EVs and automation and ride and car sharing and all will help reduce the impact of the global auto fleet.  Perhaps by quite a lot.

Buuuuut, without a serious rethinking of why we need cars and how are lives are organized, the EV revolution is rather meaningless.  It is just way too little and will take way too long.  I understand you can't conflate one topic - EVs - with a discussion of well, "everything", or you won't be able to say anything clearly.  But still, I think it is very important to put the discussion is some larger context because I see far too many people in my rounds that think technology will deliver us.  It won't.

[Tor Bejnar]

One of my sons has chosen not to get a driver license and commutes to work with a combination of public transportation, co-workers, friends and family.  I've read that this is somewhat of a trend in the USA (fewer teens and 20's getting driver licenses) and may be strongly related to the dying of "mall mentality".  Anecdotally, I was in Orlando, Florida this weekend and saw teens gathering/walking around downtown the way kids used to (it was 'at malls' for a while).  My hope is that, due to technology - phones - and other trends (Uber), the demand for cars in the 2nd biggest (since 2009) market will decline.

But as for hope for the Earth, how can demand for automobiles go down?

[Sigmetnow]

Tor Bejnar,

I had a comment ready to post about the world constantly changing, and while we can see transportation in the midst of rapid evolution, we can't know how that will change our lives...  but you've said it better.

I will say that automation and telecommunication will cause an upheaval in many, many jobs in the next decade or two, eliminating the need for masses of people to "be somewhere at a specific time."  That, in itself, will radically affect transportation requirements.  There will still be a need for cars, but you won't need one (or more) in every driveway.  Think of all the garages that can once again house start-up businesses, or garage bands!

[Sigmetnow]

An all-electric car completed the Dakar rally for the first time

Well, third time’s the charm. After attempting to complete the Dakar Rally, which is considered one of the most difficult endurance rallies in the world, for the third time in a row, Acciona’s managed to complete the race with its custom-made all-electric vehicle – a first for a zero-emission vehicle.

It’s a significant achievement that further proves that electric vehicles are just as capable or in some cases even better than gas-guzzling vehicles.

https://electrek.co/2017/01/16/all-electric-car-dakar-rally-acciona/

[Tor Bejnar]

...  Think of all the garages that can once again house start-up businesses, or garage bands!

LOL! (I did.)
An e-mail the other day said that items that had been stored in some 25 garages got brought to the new home of a refugee family in 35 pickup trucks (or was it 35 garages and 25 trucks?).  Anyway, I like to hear of the creative uses of garages, just like I wish there were more creative and productive uses of ex-gas stations.

Although I wish I had a garage to convert into a woodworking shop, 'tis more fun and economic to share a neighbor's.  (My Prius overnights under the oaks and magnolia trees.)

[crandles]

Currently vehicle miles driven approx equal to vehicle miles wanted.

With self driving cars, vehicle miles driven = vehicle miles wanted plus quite a bit more self driving to the start point of the next passenger's journey.

Ok, there are some savings where cars drive more distance than wanted that might be cut out but I suggest not all that much.

Of more significance is if price comes down because you don't have to pay the main cost, drivers time then vehicle miles wanted would be expected to rise.

Recipe for more congestion on roads.

Best news about it is probably that many town centre car parks can be redeveloped.

[Shared Humanity]

1) Buy another used Opel Combo CNG. But I'm not so happy with Opel any more. We could still fix the Combo we have now, but I'm simply not willing to spend 4000 euros for a few specks of rust that could have easily been prevented if Opel or the dealer had told me about it a few years ago.

4000 euros to repair rust? Unless this rust compromises the frame or structural integrity of the vehicle in some way, why would you repair it at all?

In the U.S. a reliable car, one that can get you where you need to go but looks like hell. is called a hooptie. You see them everywhere.

[magnamentis]

1) Buy another used Opel Combo CNG. But I'm not so happy with Opel any more. We could still fix the Combo we have now, but I'm simply not willing to spend 4000 euros for a few specks of rust that could have easily been prevented if Opel or the dealer had told me about it a few years ago.

4000 euros to repair rust? Unless this rust compromises the frame or structural integrity of the vehicle in some way, why would you repair it at all?

In the U.S. a reliable car, one that can get you where you need to go but looks like hell. is called a hooptie. You see them everywhere.

in most if not all european countries those repairs have to be done by law while some countries enforce that a bit more strictly than others. among the most regulated are germany, switzerland, austria and the netherlands while france spain italy and the likes are a bit more liberal as long as not too many of their trucks and cars are taken off the roads in the more strict countries which they do without hesitating, especially lories (trucks) from eastern europe that at times are in very bad condition, tire, brakes and structural integrity wise.

[Sigmetnow]

...  Think of all the garages that can once again house start-up businesses, or garage bands!

...
Anyway, I like to hear of the creative uses of garages, just like I wish there were more creative and productive uses of ex-gas stations.
...

And what will we do with all the parking lots and parking garages, when rather than waiting around for you to return, car can drive themselves to another person needing a ride, or to a charger???  Let's hope for more green spaces!

[Sigmetnow]

Currently vehicle miles driven approx equal to vehicle miles wanted.

With self driving cars, vehicle miles driven = vehicle miles wanted plus quite a bit more self driving to the start point of the next passenger's journey.

Ok, there are some savings where cars drive more distance than wanted that might be cut out but I suggest not all that much.

Of more significance is if price comes down because you don't have to pay the main cost, drivers time then vehicle miles wanted would be expected to rise.

Recipe for more congestion on roads.

Best news about it is probably that many town centre car parks can be redeveloped.

There will still be mass transportation.  Electric buses.  (Hyperloop? ) 

Elon Musk is developing an autonomous mini-bus that can carry a number of passengers, each to their own destination, to help ease congestion, particularly for the "last mile" travel.

"many town centre car parks can be redeveloped." -- I didn't see this before I commented above.  Exactly right!

[Sigmetnow]

GM will start delivering Chevy Bolt EVs outside ZEV states in July, all states in September
https://electrek.co/2017/01/16/gm-chevy-bolt-evs-outside-zev-state-july-all-state-september/

...The Chevy Bolt EV works for a lot of drivers at the ~$30,000 price point after incentives and therefore, GM’s low-volume production (~30,000 units) will have difficulty satisfying the demand in states with zero-emission mandates or even in California alone.

It makes more financial sense for GM to deliver the vehicles in those states where it can receive ZEV credits to compensate for its gas-guzzling vehicles. As we previously reported, reports suggest that GM will lose ~$9,000 for every Chevy Bolt EV it sells before ZEV credit under its current pricing model.

After meeting with GM’s CFO, a JP Morgan analyst even said that “the Bolt EV is not for profit but to subsidize GM’s gas-guzzling car business”. It certainly casts some doubts about the availability of the vehicle outside of ZEV states, but here’s our best look at the planned rollout so far (via Green Car Reports):

[Sigmetnow]

From October 2016:

U.S. DOT issues Federal guidance to the automotive industry for improving motor vehicle cybersecurity

The U.S. Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is taking a proactive safety approach to protect vehicles from malicious cyber-attacks and unauthorized access by releasing proposed guidance for improving motor vehicle cybersecurity.

"Cybersecurity is a safety issue, and a top priority at the Department," said U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx. "Our intention with today's guidance is to provide best practices to help protect against breaches and other security failures that can put motor vehicle safety at risk."

The proposed cybersecurity guidance focuses on layered solutions to ensure vehicle systems are designed to take appropriate and safe actions, even when an attack is successful. The guidance recommends risk-based prioritized identification and protection of critical vehicle controls and consumers' personal data. Further, it recommends that companies should consider the full life-cycle of their vehicles and facilitate rapid response and recovery from cybersecurity incidents.

This guidance also highlights the importance of making cybersecurity a top leadership priority for the automotive industry, and suggests that companies should demonstrate it by allocating appropriate and dedicated resources, and enabling seamless and direct communication channels though organizational ranks related to vehicle cybersecurity matters.

https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/us-dot-issues-federal-guidance-automotive-industry-improving-motor-vehicle

[DrTskoul]

Rogue hacked cars .... Ripe for mischief

[Sigmetnow]

Elon Musk warned long ago that he didn't want "two-ton death-bots roaming the streets."


Besides their internal cybersecurity efforts, Tesla has a "Bug Bounty" program to reward those who find vulnerabilities.

Tesla values the work done by security researchers in improving the security of our products and service offerings. We are committed to working with this community to verify, reproduce, and respond to legitimate reported vulnerabilities. We encourage the community to participate in our responsible reporting process.

For vehicle or product related services
While we use Bugcrowd as a platform for rewarding all issues, for vehicle and product related service issues please notify us at vulnerability@teslamotors.com to provide details.
...

https://bugcrowd.com/tesla

[Sigmetnow]

If you are interested in the details of how Tesla keeps external communications separate from the car's controller commands, this video presentation by two hackers at a DEFCON conference is for you. 



A bit more history here:
"Mahaffey and Rogers revealed that they managed to hack a Tesla Model S by ripping off the dashboard, connecting a laptop and sending a software command to start the car – basically presenting an alternative to “hot-wiring” the vehicle."
https://electrek.co/2015/12/03/how-to-hack-a-tesla-model-s-video/

A Controller Area Network (CAN bus) is a vehicle bus standard designed to allow microcontrollers and devices to communicate with each other in applications without a host computer.

[Sigmetnow]

Amazon patents system to help autonomous vehicles handle traffic shifts

There’s been a lot of speculation about Amazon’s interest in self-driving delivery trucks, and a newly issued patent suggests that the Seattle-based retailer is putting a lot of thought into how such a system would work.

The patent, issued today, concentrates on how a wireless control system could help autonomous vehicles negotiate changes in reversible lanes.

The arrangement would keep self-driving cars and trucks in contact with a central roadway management system. That system would track how lanes are allocated, and could even shift lanes from one direction to the other depending on demand.

“The roadway management system can identify a period of time and a particular lane of the roadway that is best suited to assign to the autonomous vehicle while taking into account an outcome directive,” Amazon’s inventors explain.

http://www.geekwire.com/2017/amazon-patent-self-driving-reversible-lanes/

[DrTskoul]

Again, only works with 100% autonomous....  And no pedestrians....

[Sigmetnow]

Again, only works with 100% autonomous....  And no pedestrians....

Radar or LIDAR can keep an autonomous vehicle separated from the manually-driven vehicle ahead of it (and radar can react to the car in front of the car ahead) -- and adjust speed to maintain a safe distance, or apply emergency braking, as needed.  Tesla autopilot (AP1) does that now.

And any pedestrian trying to cross 5 lanes of traffic, autonomous or manual, clearly wants to die. 

[Sigmetnow]

Because fossil fuels are the best!   

Toyota, Shell Among Auto and Oil Giants Forming Hydrogen Council

Toyota Motor Corp. and four of its biggest car-making peers are joining oil and gas giants including Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA to promote hydrogen and show batteries aren’t the only way to reduce pollution from cars, homes and utilities.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-17/toyota-shell-among-auto-and-oil-giants-forming-hydrogen-council

[DrTskoul]

Again, only works with 100% autonomous....  And no pedestrians....

Radar or LIDAR can keep an autonomous vehicle separated from the manually-driven vehicle ahead of it (and radar can react to the car in front of the car ahead) -- and adjust speed to maintain a safe distance, or apply emergency braking, as needed.  Tesla autopilot (AP1) does that now.

And any pedestrian trying to cross 5 lanes of traffic, autonomous or manual, clearly wants to die. 

Those cars will have to enter 2 lane or single lane streets at some time I don't see many 5 lane roads connecting work and home...

I am not disputing the sensor technology... I am disputing the ability to implement...

[DrTskoul]

Because fossil fuels are the best!   

Toyota, Shell Among Auto and Oil Giants Forming Hydrogen Council

Toyota Motor Corp. and four of its biggest car-making peers are joining oil and gas giants including Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA to promote hydrogen and show batteries aren’t the only way to reduce pollution from cars, homes and utilities.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-17/toyota-shell-among-auto-and-oil-giants-forming-hydrogen-council

From efficiency standpoint a hydrogen car ( with on board or offboard hydrogen generation ) is no more efficient than the best hybrid car out there or EV powered with natural gas or renewable/nuclear sourced electricity ...With the best of assumptions...

Btw both GE and Toyota have been researching hydrogen fueled vehicles with or not fuel cells for at least the last 15 years.... A little difficult to convince yourself that you threw money away....

[Sigmetnow]

...
I am not disputing the sensor technology... I am disputing the ability to implement...

I guess I don't understand what you think can't be implemented.

Here's a Tesla on the highway hitting the brakes before the car in front hits the brakes, because the next car ahead has slammed on his (even though you can't see it, the radar bounces under the intervening car and sees it):
    Autopilot’s new radar technology predicts an accident caught on dashcam a second later
https://electrek.co/2016/12/27/tesla-autopilot-radar-technology-predict-accident-dashcam/

Here's a Tesla pulling itself out of a driveway, driving through the neighborhood, stopping at stop signs and red lights, driving on a highway, dropping off the person at the destination, and finding a place to park by itself:
    Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Teslas
https://www.tesla.com/videos/full-self-driving-hardware-all-tesla-cars

Here's another self-drive, city and country, with left turns, stop signs, and traffic lights.  Also self-parking.
    Tesla Self-Driving Demonstration
https://www.tesla.com/videos/autopilot-self-driving-hardware-neighborhood-long

[DrTskoul]

I may have a hard time describing it...  But my sense is that low concentrations of self driving cars are inconsequential.  Problems will appear above 10 - 20%, not with those cars themselves but due to interaction and psychology of the rest of the drivers and pedestrians.

 Technologically we might be there, culturally far from it. And the laws are even further away... Who would be liable in an accident. The owner or the manufacturer? Are those discussions underway?