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DrTskoul

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1500 on: January 18, 2017, 04:14:47 AM »
http://www.apa.org/monitor/2015/01/cover-ride.aspx

Quote
Along for the ride
Self-driving cars may soon be coming to a road near you — but there are big questions about the behavior of the people sitting in the driver’s seat...

Quote
...Before driverless cars are unleashed on the roads, that debate is worth hashing out. "Why are we automating?" Ward asks. "Is it because we need to, or because we can?"...

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1501 on: January 18, 2017, 04:30:55 AM »
"Why are we automating?"

Sorry, but that seems like a monumentally stupid question.

One word: Money (of course)

And autonomous cars are mostly just a distraction.

Companies are set to gain ungodly amounts of money as they unemploy millions of truck and bus drivers around the world. This will not be a good thing.

I notice that they aren't talking about automating pilots of planes, but maybe because that would freak out the wealthier classes too much?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

DrTskoul

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1502 on: January 18, 2017, 04:56:05 AM »
You mean a trivial question...

A monumentally stupid question does either have no answer or a monumentally stupid one....

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1503 on: January 18, 2017, 05:42:31 AM »
touché
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Hefaistos

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1504 on: January 18, 2017, 09:37:13 AM »

Companies are set to gain ungodly amounts of money as they unemploy millions of truck and bus drivers around the world. This will not be a good thing.

I notice that they aren't talking about automating pilots of planes, but maybe because that would freak out the wealthier classes too much?

I worked as a bus driver for a few years. I think it's a fantastic thing to liberate humans from such meaningless occupations as driving vehicles for a living.

http://nightflight.com/terry-gilliams-the-crimson-permanent-assurance-elderly-accountant-pirates-taking-on-the-very-big-corporation-of-america/

As regards automating pilots of planes it's already done, modern planes are to a very large degree autopiloted: they start, fly and land all by themselves . Pilots are more of supervisors.

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1505 on: January 18, 2017, 02:53:12 PM »
"liberate humans"

 ;D ;D ;D ;D

You go ahead and run on that platform as a politician: "I vow to liberate you from your jobs!!"

 :o :o :o

Look, really, if we started with some kind of guaranteed income as they are starting to do in Utrecht and some other places, I may be able to go there with you. But in our new one-party repug system in the USA...that just ain't gonna happen.

And you are actually making my point about pilots. Even though it is already highly automated, folks in planes would get nervous if they were told that there is no on in the cock pit.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2017, 03:00:26 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1506 on: January 18, 2017, 04:26:01 PM »
If you are concerned about pedestrian deaths, you must also consider the 32,000 lives estimated to be saved (in the U.S., each year) with full autonomous driving.  90% of crashes are due to human error.  (Not to mention the greater efficiency of being able to fit more vehicles traveling safely on the same highway.)  NTSB (among other groups) is all over it:

NTSB Chairman: Driverless Cars Could Save 32,000 Lives a Year
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/joe-setyon/ntsb-chairman-driverless-cars-could-save-32000-lives-year

NHTSA:  Automated Vehicles
https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles

Self-Driving Cars Could Save 300,000 Lives Per Decade in America
Automation on the roads could be the great public-health achievement of the 21st century.
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/09/self-driving-cars-could-save-300000-lives-per-decade-in-america/407956/

People Want Self-Driving Cars That Save Lives. Especially Theirs
https://www.wired.com/2016/06/people-want-self-driving-cars-save-lives-especially/


Nissan (and some others) envision lights on the outside of the car which indicate to pedestrians what action the car will take.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=jW2LNb2z5Kg
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1507 on: January 18, 2017, 04:34:00 PM »
Arguments against the current rash of U.S. states' EV fees as a replacement for the gas tax they aren't paying.

Yearly “EV fees” to replace lost gas tax revenue are less reasonable than they seem; Indiana the latest to scapegoat EVs
https://electrek.co/2017/01/17/yearly-ev-fees-to-replace-lost-gas-tax-revenue-are-less-reasonable-than-they-seem-indiana-the-latest-to-scapegoat-evs/
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DrTskoul

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1508 on: January 18, 2017, 04:39:31 PM »
Arguments against the current rash of U.S. states' EV fees as a replacement for the gas tax they aren't paying.

Yearly “EV fees” to replace lost gas tax revenue are less reasonable than they seem; Indiana the latest to scapegoat EVs
https://electrek.co/2017/01/17/yearly-ev-fees-to-replace-lost-gas-tax-revenue-are-less-reasonable-than-they-seem-indiana-the-latest-to-scapegoat-evs/

There should be a mechanism to fund road maintenance though...Regardless of how the mechanism is implemented. Gas tax / EV tax / per mile utilization / flat tax / tolls etc. Even if all transportation was done with public media, the fares would include a fee for network maintenance and upgrades. Unless all.such maintenance was privetized and then they would enforce a Toll everywhere.

As long as it is fair and it is not used to tip the scales towards particular engine technology, the method is irrelevant.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1509 on: January 18, 2017, 04:43:13 PM »
"There should be a mechanism to fund road maintenance though....."

Of course.  Let's just make -- dare I say it -- a sensible one.  ;)
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DrTskoul

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1510 on: January 18, 2017, 04:59:01 PM »
"There should be a mechanism to fund road maintenance though....."

Of course.  Let's just make -- dare I say it -- a sensible one.  ;)

What a provocative thought.... 8)

wehappyfew

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1511 on: January 18, 2017, 05:10:30 PM »
Some representative ESAL values (assumes typical loads for commercial
vehicles)
Vehicle Type ... ESAL Value
Passenger car ........ 0.0008
Urban Transit Bus ... 0.6806
SU2 Truck ............. 0.1890
SU3 Truck ............. 0.1303
CS3 Truck ............. 0.8646
CS4 Truck ............. 0.6560
DS5 Truck ............. 2.3187
TT5 Truck Trailer .... 0.5317

ESAL = damage done by 18,000 lbs on a single axle
 
Key: SU = single unit; CS = conventional semi-trailer ; DS = Double
Trailer. n = number of axles.

....

Policy Implications:

"When discussing road wear, cars don't matter:
road damage is effectively caused by trucks"

.....

"Some Simulations
We see:
The number of passages {before road failure occurs} rises steeply with the number of axles
Going from 2 to 4 single axles results in a factor-of-10 increase in road life

The effect is even more strong with tandem axles
Going from 2 single axles to 2 tandem axles quadruples life

Going from 2 single axles to 4 tandem axles is a factor-of-33 improvement

Philip A. Viton () CRP 776 ó Road Wear January 26, 2012 35 / 37

.....

Policy Implications,II
Public policy should provide incentives for truckers to distribute their
loads over as many axles as possible, and to use tandem axles. This
minimizes forces on the road, and hence road wear.
But most roads are operated in precisely the contrary manner: tolls
increase with the number of axles (other things held constant).
Existing policy encourages truckers to minimize the number of axles,
which is completely wrongheaded."

from:

http://facweb.knowlton.ohio-state.edu/pviton/courses2/crp776/776-roads-handout.pdf

Discussing road maintenance fees for cars of any type is orthogonal to the actual cause of road wear.
"If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken" - Carl Sagan

dnem

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1512 on: January 18, 2017, 06:18:21 PM »
"Why are we automating?"

I agree Wili.  Without a serious discussion about the future of work these debates about autonomous cars are all but meaningless.  As a technological issue, it will likely become trivial in a few years - assuming the global economy hangs together long enough to allow continued, normal R&D, etc.

The automation of driving - and so many other human tasks - only makes sense in a completely re-imagined economic paradigm.  A Universal Basic Income is certainly one approach.  But in the short term, it sure looks to me like a way for corporations to save on labor costs which will serve to exacerbate income inequality and continue to undermine the basic stability of society.

Falling life expectancy of poor whites, skyrocketing opiate addiction, Brexit, Trump, etc. etc.  It's all connected. Technology is not our salvation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1513 on: January 18, 2017, 08:02:47 PM »
...
Discussing road maintenance fees for cars of any type is orthogonal to the actual cause of road wear.

So the "sensible" ;) way to raise funds for road repair in the U.S. might be as a federal income tax, because everybody who buys anything has trucks transporting those goods to them in some fashion.  An income-based tax because the more money you make, the more stuff you buy (and to waive the burden on the poor, who are mostly buying necessities).  Also, many truck miles are in "drive-through states" which receive no direct benefits from the trucks, so the funds could be apportioned to states depending on the truck weight-miles they experienced.

Keep the gas taxes, though -- as an emissions tax!  (Electricity is already taxed.)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1514 on: January 18, 2017, 08:22:14 PM »
...
The automation of driving - and so many other human tasks - only makes sense in a completely re-imagined economic paradigm.  ...

The automation of driving (via Automatic Emergency Braking, Front Collision Warning, Traffic Aware Cruise Control, etc.) is already saving lives, reducing injury, and lowering medical costs.  NHTSA agrees that stopping or slowing its adoption would be harmful to the driving public.  Several of these technologies will be required on cars sold in the U.S. in a few years, for those reasons.

Increased automation of food production is necessary to feed the growing population.  Automated manufacturing makes sustainable, clean energy products more affordable, thus more likely to be adopted.  It also reduces material waste.  Increasing automation is unavoidable, and it brings many benefits.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

wehappyfew

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1515 on: January 18, 2017, 08:40:18 PM »
Quote
So the "sensible" ;) way to raise funds for road repair in the U.S. might be as a federal income tax

That would be "sensible" in some ways because it apportions the tax to those who benefit from the public service of well-maintained roads.

It is less sensible in another way:

A well designed tax should punish undesirable behavior and reward beneficial behavior. A federal income tax would tax someone who uses efficient and more beneficial water and rail transport the same as someone who only uses very heavy trucks (ie, the price signal of goods would not contain any information about how damaging their transportation method is).

A better choice is to levy a tax based on miles driven times weight per axle, total vehicle weight, etc... proportional to the actual damage inflicted. This ends up looking like some kind of power function ... miles * (axle weight)^3 ... or something like that. Cars are taxed very little, trucks a lot. There is a strong incentive to move freight to rail, hyperloop, water ... anything but heavy trucks. Small delivery trucks for the last mile aren't taxed much if they keep the weight per axle low, plus they don't go far with a given load.

These incentives benefit everybody - more efficient, less oil, more renewable electrified rail, more local delivery jobs, fewer dangerous heavy trucks on the road.

"If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken" - Carl Sagan

dnem

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1516 on: January 18, 2017, 09:58:47 PM »
Sigmetnow, I'm not a Luddite and I understand that the obvious benefits of automation.  I absolutely love the interactive cruise control on our Prius (although I was talking about driverless cars, not interactive safety systems).

Increasing efficiency in certain aspects of how we run the world is not the point.  The fact that we will need massive automation and industrialization just to feed our bloated numbers is hardly reassuring.
Neither of those points in any way address the major fundamental shortcomings in how the world is prepared for coming changes in how automation, the labor supply, compensation, the meaning of work and more will all interact.

It is all well and good to be excited about driverless cars, but they will displace several million jobs in the US alone.  I understand the potential benefits of that (safety, efficiency, free up labor to do other more interesting things, etc.) but I think we as a society are ill-prepared to make the transition in any way smoothly.  So, as I said, the technology is the least of it.  The social engineering is the tougher problem.

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1517 on: January 18, 2017, 10:18:27 PM »
Thanks, dnem.

Sig wrote: "...saving lives, reducing injury, and lowering medical costs..."

Sooo, the same could be said for fully automated sex (watching robots 'do it') or hunting (through drones, for example, which my state just outlawed). But then...what's the point?

The number of lives destroyed by massive permanent unemployment will far outweigh any of those benefits if/when trucks etc go fully autonomous.

Don't believe the corporate propaganda. They're trying to put lipstick on the rear end of a pig, but we should know that what is coming at us will not be the least pleasant.

They don't give a tear about saving lives or anything else. Just profits. That is actually all that they are allowed to care about as a corporation. Everything else is propaganda.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1518 on: January 18, 2017, 10:53:17 PM »
Yes, the question is: Who benefits? The 1% or the rest of us? That depends on whether systemic changes occur or not.

I read a really good piece about that theme last year.
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

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Zythryn

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1519 on: January 19, 2017, 01:26:15 AM »
This is a great article that may reassure some, on either side.
http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/self-driving-cars-endanger-millions-american-jobs-thats-okay/

I agree jobs will be lost.
Lives will be saved.

But it takes a long time to replace vehicles on the road, en masse.
Technological advancements lead to tools that do the jobs of people.  This has happened all the way back to the wheel.
Economies adjust, people adjust and societies will adjust.

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1520 on: January 19, 2017, 04:58:26 AM »
"...people adjust..."

Yeah...well...

"People" often end up 'adjusting' to having no way to support their families by:

Committing suicide
Dropping into deep depression
Migrating en mass to cities that then become overwhelmed
Joining militia, rebel, or terrorist groups

So yeah, if that kind of 'adjustment' seems just fine to you, then you just sit back comfortably and enjoy the smugness of that feeling, if it works for ya... ;)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

DrTskoul

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1521 on: January 19, 2017, 05:11:24 AM »
Any ideas of a historical equivalent to the transition from today's cars to future's fully autonomous?


budmantis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1522 on: January 19, 2017, 05:52:19 AM »
"...people adjust..."

Yeah...well...

"People" often end up 'adjusting' to having no way to support their families by:

Committing suicide
Dropping into deep depression
Migrating en mass to cities that then become overwhelmed
Joining militia, rebel, or terrorist groups

So yeah, if that kind of 'adjustment' seems just fine to you, then you just sit back comfortably and enjoy the smugness of that feeling, if it works for ya... ;)

Despite the benefits offered by new technology in this case, autonomous vehicles, the negatives spelled out by Wili should be considered. Perhaps we've reached a point where humanity can no longer keep up with the pace of change? In my estimation, we already have. As a species we are incredibly short sighted, why not consider the repercussions and figure out ways to ameliorate them before instituting wholesale change? Otherwise, it definitely benefits the 1% while everyone else is left with the burden of picking up the pieces.


sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1523 on: January 19, 2017, 06:15:02 AM »
Re: historical equivalent of the transition to self guiding automobile

Considering all the drivers shortly out of a job, here are some quotes:

"Like every other instrument for increasing the productivity of labour, machinery is intended to cheapen commodities and, by shortening the part of the working day in which the worker works for himself, to lengthen the other part, the part he gives to the capitalist for nothing."

"Crippled as they are by the division of labour, these poor devils are worth so little outside their old trade that they cannot find admission into any industries except a few inferior and therefore over-supplied and under-paid branches. Furthermore, every branch of industry attracts each year a new stream of men, who furnish a contingent from which to fill up vacancies, and to draw a supply for expansion. As soon as machinery has set free a part of the workers employed in a given branch of industry, the reserve men are also diverted into new channels of employment, and become absorbed in other branches; meanwhile the original victims, during the period transition, for the most part starve and perish."

This is from the pen of a superb historian, although his ideas on political economy are ... disputed.

sidd

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1524 on: January 19, 2017, 07:10:20 AM »
"...people adjust..."

Yeah...well...

"People" often end up 'adjusting' to having no way to support their families by:

Committing suicide
Dropping into deep depression
Migrating en mass to cities that then become overwhelmed
Joining militia, rebel, or terrorist groups

So yeah, if that kind of 'adjustment' seems just fine to you, then you just sit back comfortably and enjoy the smugness of that feeling, if it works for ya... ;)
Wili, most people will get screwed by the coming revolution. Millions of jobs will vanish. It will be a mixed bag of pros and cons but mostly in the short term many people will feel the pain, while the 1% feel the gain. So what? Nothing you can do about it. You cannot stop progress and innovation unless you have a centralist economy which commands everything and dictates who will do what when.
If you were to suggest to start retraining bus/truck/taxi drivers now to let's say rooftop solar installations or whatever, instead of waiting for the inevitable storm, I'm all for it. But just railing against innovation ain't gonna get you far.

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1525 on: January 19, 2017, 08:21:39 AM »
Sooooo, the basic ideology is that ALL innovation is both (ultimately) good AND totally inevitable, eh?

And so we should never resist anything ever.  But great, yeah, advocate for better training for solar installers (among the many other much needed jobs).

But don't try to normalize insouciance in the face of monumental disruptions to and destruction of people's basic livelihood. Thank you. :)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1526 on: January 19, 2017, 08:28:15 AM »
Sidd quoted:

"...the original victims, during the period transition, for the most part starve and perish."

Exactly.

To which oren apparently says, "Hurray! Progress! So what? It's inevitable anyway."

But to which Marx said: "Organize and resist, and take back the means of production." (Or some such.)

I guess it's up to each to decide which side of that ethics they're on. Or find a third (or tenth) side?  :)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1527 on: January 19, 2017, 08:34:59 AM »
bud wrote:

"Despite the benefits offered by new technology in this case, autonomous vehicles, the negatives spelled out by Wili should be considered. Perhaps we've reached a point where humanity can no longer keep up with the pace of change? In my estimation, we already have. As a species we are incredibly short sighted, why not consider the repercussions and figure out ways to ameliorate them before instituting wholesale change? Otherwise, it definitely benefits the 1% while everyone else is left with the burden of picking up the pieces."

Thanks, and well put. And of course a lot of other species are having an even harder time keeping up with our pace of change than we (as a species) are,  so far anyway.

What's pretty clear is that it will be set up so that the unemployed erroneously blame immigrants--whether Mexican, Asian, Muslim, or whatever--and the 'liberals' they think allowed them in. So the 1% can then sit back and tsk as the divided lower classes fight in the streets when we should be tearing down their towers.

(Wow, I'm really waxing revolutionary these days! Who'd a thunk it. I think the impending Trump nomination...well, it's either unhinged me or really got me thinkin'...or both?? :))
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

dnem

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1528 on: January 19, 2017, 04:51:01 PM »
Well, this thread has veered a bit from cars, but what the heck.  I am on a listserv of academics working in the sustainability field affiliated with an organization called SCORAI - The Sustainable Consumption Research and Action Initiative scorai.org.

There has been a very interesting recent thread under the title "What if jobs are not the solution but the problem?"  This first entry in the thread was a link to this interesting essay:
https://aeon.co/essays/what-if-jobs-are-not-the-solution-but-the-problem

I also found the entry below and links therein useful.  Bottom line, IMO, is that the amount of labor actually needed to run the human endeavor comfortably and sustainably is a rather small fraction of the amount of labor currently expended to produce a vast excess of unneeded, meaningless and unsustainable, well, crap.  And the amount actually needed will continue to fall as automation takes hold. This is, if you think about it right, a pretty enviable position.  But no one is thinking about it like that.  And THAT is humankind's great challenge. 

Here's the other post:

Certainly "jobs" or a policy of full employment is a huge part of the environmental problem. The existing economic order is necessarily focused on creating more and more jobs and on constant growth simply for the sake of its own continued survival. Much economic activity is, from the point of view of provisioning basic human needs, wasteful and therefore unnecessarily polluting and unnecessarily resource depleting.

In sober truth, if it weren't a financial necessity, both for individuals and for the economy as whole, for everyone to have a job or to be dependent through redistributive taxation on those that do, we could get by quite comfortably with only a minority of the available workforce actually being employed in the formal economy. Call it the policy of the minimum employment necessary.

The Social Credit financial reforms, developed by the British engineer, C.H. Douglas, would make a degrowth economy financially feasible, while still ensuring, through the provision of a dividend (a periodic distribution of money somewhat similar to a basic income), that everyone's basic needs can be met, even if their labour in the formal economy is no longer physically required.

I tried to explain the necessity of financial reform for making a policy of sustainable consumption economically feasible in the paper I presented at the last SCORAI Conference: http://www.socred.org/index.php/blogs/view/the-social-credit-path-to-sustainable-consumption

I have also written on the impossibility and non-necessity of achieving full employment under existing technological conditions: http://www.socred.org/index.php/blogs/view/the-folly-of-full-employment

Finally, here is an Introduction to Social Credit: http://www.socred.org/index.php/blogs/view/an-introduction-to-social-credit





SteveMDFP

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1529 on: January 19, 2017, 04:51:47 PM »
Any ideas of a historical equivalent to the transition from today's cars to future's fully autonomous?

I think the transition from horse-based transportation to ICE vehicles is probably comparable. 

SteveMDFP

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1530 on: January 19, 2017, 05:04:29 PM »
Quote
So the "sensible" ;) way to raise funds for road repair in the U.S. might be as a federal income tax

That would be "sensible" in some ways because it apportions the tax to those who benefit from the public service of well-maintained roads.

It is less sensible in another way:

A well designed tax should punish undesirable behavior and reward beneficial behavior. A federal income tax would tax someone who uses efficient and more beneficial water and rail transport the same as someone who only uses very heavy trucks (ie, the price signal of goods would not contain any information about how damaging their transportation method is).

A better choice is to levy a tax based on miles driven times weight per axle, total vehicle weight, etc... proportional to the actual damage inflicted. This ends up looking like some kind of power function ... miles * (axle weight)^3 ... or something like that. Cars are taxed very little, trucks a lot. There is a strong incentive to move freight to rail, hyperloop, water ... anything but heavy trucks. Small delivery trucks for the last mile aren't taxed much if they keep the weight per axle low, plus they don't go far with a given load.

These incentives benefit everybody - more efficient, less oil, more renewable electrified rail, more local delivery jobs, fewer dangerous heavy trucks on the road.

Quite right.  The good part of using income tax revenue to pay for roads is that it's a more progressive tax than the effect of applying tax to road users.  The bad part is that it subsidizes consumption of road-intensive goods and services.  We don't really want to subsidize consumption, even when those benefits confer disproportionally on lower-income folks.

A middle path would be to levy the road-use tax on road users (mostly heavy trucks) at a rate of say 125% of needed revenue, and use the extra 25% to defray payroll taxes, or to put into the Social Security Trust Fund, or such.  We'd support the folks harmed by increasing automation while simultaneously dis-incentivizing consumption, lowering CO2 intensity.

DrTskoul

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1531 on: January 19, 2017, 05:06:27 PM »
Any ideas of a historical equivalent to the transition from today's cars to future's fully autonomous?

I think the transition from horse-based transportation to ICE vehicles is probably comparable.

For the horses absolutely....

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1532 on: January 19, 2017, 05:43:41 PM »
Any ideas of a historical equivalent to the transition from today's cars to future's fully autonomous?

If you think at a large scale, you might want to compare it to the (first) Industrial Revolution. Back then we went from a single blacksmith or a seamstress or a handloom... to, eventually, giant furnaces and huge factories weaving fabric -- just because we could, energy costs be damned! and we could ignore all the environmental damage and human cost.

You can look at today's advances as the beginning of a Second Industrial Revolution.  Where we do more, with less energy, and with more care about the environment.  Human cost, we're still working on, although a Universal Income is being discussed more openly, and in the view of many is inevitable, as the need for human labor decreases.  The world can support a large population, at a decent standard of living, IF energy and material needs are reduced significantly and apportioned appropriately.  Gas-guzzling cars and trucks, and large energy-sucking houses, will soon seem as old-fashioned as steam-powered cars and medieval castles.  Efficient, safe and sustainable products are not a fad, they are leading the way to a better future.

There are always those who think, "Everything we need has already been invented."
"I don't like smart phones; I want real buttons and a phone I can snap closed."
"All the good songs have already been written."
"Who needs an iPod?  We have cassette tapes!"

The human condition doesn't improve without effort and change.  Otherwise we'd still be living in the Stone Age.  And each Age has its Seemingly Insurmountable Obstacles to overcome.  We haven't found perfection yet, and likely never will.  But that's a good thing -- it keeps us growing, and, in surprising ways, improving.


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« Last Edit: January 19, 2017, 05:49:38 PM by Sigmetnow »
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ritter

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1533 on: January 19, 2017, 06:52:51 PM »
Any ideas of a historical equivalent to the transition from today's cars to future's fully autonomous?
Whale oil to electricity? (good for the whales, not so good for the whalers)
Swords to muskets? (granted, less widely used)
Mail to telephone/email? (largely offset by junk mail!)
Sailboats to powered boats?
Rail to plane?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1534 on: January 19, 2017, 06:53:23 PM »
NHTSA's review of the fatal accident in Florida involving Tesla Autopilot is now closed.
And Elon Musk is tweeting (•) about it:

• Elon Musk: Final report on Autopilot issued by @NHTSAgov is very positive...
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/822128741228756992

Report is here:
https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2016/INCLA-PE16007-7876.PDF

• Report highlight: “The data show that the Tesla vehicles crash rate dropped by almost 40 percent after Autosteer installation.”

< @elonmusk can that turn to 80% with [the new hardware now being installed]? >

• ... Our target is a 90% reduction with HW2 as the software matures


< @elonmusk Any reports on pedestrian lives saved? I know autopilot saved my life as a pedestrian before. >

• ... Not specifically, but there have been several incidences of pedestrian and bicyclist lives saved by Autopilot


< @elonmusk @NHTSAgov Will this work for people with medically suspended licenses due to conditions like Epilepsy? >

• ... It might. Am not sure.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1535 on: January 19, 2017, 07:12:19 PM »
Any ideas of a historical equivalent to the transition from today's cars to future's fully autonomous?

I think the transition from horse-based transportation to ICE vehicles is probably comparable.
I was thinking about the transition from "everybody walking" to "some people riding horses".
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1536 on: January 19, 2017, 10:16:18 PM »
Articles on the results of the NHTSA report on its investigation of the Tesla Autopilot crash.

Tesla’s Autopilot Vindicated With 40% Drop in Crashes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/tesla-s-autopilot-vindicated-with-40-percent-drop-in-crashes

Tesla cleared after NHTSA crash investigation, Autosteer safety cited in report
Quote
It’s worth noting that the report takes a deep look at many of Tesla’s driving-assist features. Tesla’s Automatic Enhanced Braking (AEB) is referenced several times within the report and noted as a system that could “reduce rear-end crashes by 40 percent”. The report also adds, “the earliest NHTSA believes it could realistically implement a regulatory requirement for AEB – the commitment will prevent 28,000 crashes and 12,000 injuries” in speaking about the benefits of AEB.*

Additionally, we’ve highlighted some of the finer details mentioned within the report that presumably led to the closing of the investigation:

• NHTSA’s examination did not identify any defects in design or performance of the AEB or Autopilot systems of the subject vehicles nor any incidents in which the systems did not perform as designed.”

NHTSA points out that “it appears that over the course of researching and developing Autopilot, Tesla considered the possibility that drivers could misuse the system in a variety of ways,”

• “types of driver distraction that Tesla engineers considered are that a driver might fail to pay attention, fall asleep, or become incapacitated while using Autopilot. The potential for driver misuse was evaluated as part of Tesla’s design process and solutions were tested, validated, and incorporated into the wide release of the product. It appears that Tesla’s evaluation of driver misuse and its resulting actions addressed the unreasonable risk to safety that may be presented by such misuse” reports the NHTSA.
  http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cleared-nhtsa-crash-investigation-autosteer-safety-cited-report/

*From the NHTSA report: 
Quote
IIHS research shows that AEB systems meeting the commitment would reduce rear-end crashes [emphasis added] by 40 percent. IIHS estimates that by 2025 – the earliest NHTSA believes it could realistically implement a regulatory requirement for AEB – the commitment will prevent 28,000 crashes and 12,000 injuries.


Tesla’s crash rate was reduced by 40% after introduction of Autopilot based on data reviewed by NHTSA
https://electrek.co/2017/01/19/tesla-crash-rate-autopilot-nhtsa/

Tesla Autopilot not defective in fatal crash
http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/19/technology/tesla-investigation-closed/

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Stephen

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1537 on: January 20, 2017, 01:12:17 PM »
We were witness to a horrifying event down here in melbourne just a few hours ago.  A violent drug-addled man decided to use his car as a weapon against his fellow human beings.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/killer-driver-highlighted-how-susceptible-city-is-to-attack-20170120-gtvr5a.html

He drove straight up the main pedestrian mall in the centre of the city killing men, women and children.

I am now so bloody angry I can barely hold in my rage.  This guy was observed doing "burnouts" outside the main city train station, but the police did not act.  Yet if I were to ride my bicycle past there without wearing my helmet then I would probably be stopped and fined.  It seems that we, as a society, have no effective answer to the use of vehicles as weapons, witness the Nice and German truck attacks.  This incident was not terrorist realted.  Just a crazy, angry, youth.

Sorry for my incoherent ramblings but I really think we need to consider this "vehicle as weapons" problem wmuch more seriously.  The use of cars and trucks is way too cheap considering the damage and the hidden costs to society.  Maybe not so hidden now. 

Tax the bloody things according to the damage that they do and maybe these criminals could not afford to use them in the first place.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1538 on: January 20, 2017, 08:22:41 PM »
Stephen,

That's horrible.  It's bad enough when an incapacitated driver runs onto a crowd of people.... 
Perhaps the day can't come fast enough that, on order to operate, a vehicle must access and employ an algorithm that will keep it from hitting pedestrians... and bicyclists, cars, walls, trees, etc.  It's tragic, and a long way off that all vehicles would have it, but events such as yours may make it happen sooner than it otherwise would.  (I've heard that ISIS has suggested this method be used as an attack.) 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1539 on: January 20, 2017, 08:31:00 PM »
Tesla now has a Model S that will travel 335 miles (539 km) on a charge (EPA rating).

https://electrek.co/2017/01/20/tesla-longest-range-car-model-s-100d-with-335-miles/

(It's a fair bet that a high-end version of the smaller Model 3 will go about as far.  Announcement this spring!)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1540 on: January 21, 2017, 08:23:06 PM »
“Get to know your competition.  This is going to be one of the most exciting business duels in history; two giant energy systems will be competing for the hearts and wheels of the people.”

Oil companies are ignoring the huge threat from electric vehicles
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-big-oil-is-unprepared-for-the-coming-energy-war-2017-1
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1541 on: January 23, 2017, 05:29:43 PM »
Uber, today.

When Their Shifts End, Uber Drivers Set Up Camp in Parking Lots Across the U.S.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-23/when-their-shifts-end-uber-drivers-set-up-camp-in-parking-lots-across-the-u-s
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NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1542 on: January 23, 2017, 08:09:10 PM »
“Get to know your competition.  This is going to be one of the most exciting business duels in history; two giant energy systems will be competing for the hearts and wheels of the people.”

Oil companies are ignoring the huge threat from electric vehicles
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-big-oil-is-unprepared-for-the-coming-energy-war-2017-1

Personally I don't know.  Today, 73% of power in the US is generated by coal, gas and oil.  Hydro and Geothermal are static and renewables are a max of 14%.

Somehow I don't see them as threatened.

I don't want to be negative about this, but the fraction of 1% of the entire car market that constitutes electric is not really looking like threatening.

When we see a mass market vehicle in the $25,000 bracket being manufactured in quantities of 500,000 per year or more by at least one manufacturer, then I think we can talk about having a battle on our hands.

Sadly, today, I just don't see it.

Although I might just take a punt on trying to sell someone on closed system CO2 as a fuel source for vehicles.  Wouldn't that be ironic... ;D ;D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1543 on: January 24, 2017, 02:44:32 AM »
NeilT,

EV volumes are small, currently -- but increasing exponentially. 

In fact, Bloomberg analysts see EV growth causing an oil crash as early as 2023.

Quote
[In 2015], EV sales grew by about 60 percent worldwide. That’s an interesting number, because it’s also roughly the annual growth rate that Tesla forecasts for sales through 2020*, and it’s the same growth rate that helped the Ford Model T cruise past the horse and buggy in the 1910s.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

* And this was before the 400,000 reservations for the Tesla Model 3, which caused Elon Musk to move up his production timeline to 500,000 cars in 2018 and one million in 2020 -- and forced other car companies to acknowledge they had to start electrifying their fleets.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2017, 03:32:48 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1544 on: January 24, 2017, 02:46:59 AM »
New Eagle and Inventev demonstrating electric Ford Transit van in Detroit
Quote
Two Michigan companies, New Eagle and Inventev, have teamed up to convert full-size commercial vans to electric drive. They are demonstrating a fully electric Ford Transit van at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit.

Production and sale of the vehicles is scheduled to begin in early 2018. New Eagle will provide the core propulsion systems and controls, and Inventev will handle upfitting and distribution.

The electric Ford Transit was developed using New Eagle’s Powertrain Kit, which is designed to allow fleets and manufacturers to quickly and affordably convert commercial vehicles to electric drive. The kits are customizable, so customers can select the components that best fit their system. The kit is available for any light-duty, medium-duty, commercial delivery or shuttle vehicle, and has previously been configured for the Dodge Promaster, Ford F-150 and Fiat Ducato.
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/new-eagle-and-inventev-demonstrating-electric-ford-transit-van-in-detroit/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1545 on: January 24, 2017, 02:50:58 AM »
Electric utilities are seeking to expand electric vehicle infrastructure with 10,000+ new charging stations in California
Quote
On the heels of the California Air Resources Board’s Midterm Review of the Zero-Emission Vehicle Program, the state’s electric utilities are seeking to expand electric vehicle infrastructure with thousands of new charging stations.

Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), Southern California Edison (SCE), and San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) all submitted new plans to the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) last week to collect about $1 billion more from their customers in order to finance the important expansion....
https://electrek.co/2017/01/23/electric-utilities-expand-electric-vehicle-infrastructure-charging-stations-california/
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1546 on: January 24, 2017, 02:56:14 PM »
Quote
In fact, Bloomberg analysts see EV growth causing an oil crash as early as 2023.

Yes....the oil crash is DENITIELY coming.  It will likely affect oil and gas companies BEFORE it tops out.  I think many of the oil and gas companies have ALREADY SEEN THEIR HISTORIC HIGHS (Exxon being the most obvious one).

The equity markets will see the writing on the wall BEFORE the oil crash....

I also think that CONSUMERS will see it coming as well.....and by 2020....there will be more and more people that WILL NOT BUY A FOSSIL FUELED CAR.  If they don't see something they like and can afford by 2020...OR...if they see continued drop in the price of ELECTRIC CARS CONTINUING....more and more people will put off buying their next car for a year or two....AND....it will be electric.

Tesla's highest range car now goes 330 miles.....which is more than most ICEngine  cars.  And as advances in battery's OR capacitors continue.....it's going to get bloody for internal combustion engines.

 

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DrTskoul

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1547 on: January 24, 2017, 03:02:05 PM »
Quote
In fact, Bloomberg analysts see EV growth causing an oil crash as early as 2023.

Yes....the oil crash is DENITIELY coming.  It will likely affect oil and gas companies BEFORE it tops out.  I think many of the oil and gas companies have ALREADY SEEN THEIR HISTORIC HIGHS (Exxon being the most obvious one).

The equity markets will see the writing on the wall BEFORE the oil crash....

I also think that CONSUMERS will see it coming as well.....and by 2020....there will be more and more people that WILL NOT BUY A FOSSIL FUELED CAR.  If they don't see something they like and can afford by 2020...OR...if they see continued drop in the price of ELECTRIC CARS CONTINUING....more and more people will put off buying their next car for a year or two....AND....it will be electric.

Tesla's highest range car now goes 330 miles.....which is more than most ICEngine  cars.  And as advances in battery's OR capacitors continue.....it's going to get bloody for internal combustion engines.

Just hope the oil crash does not come before enough renewable energy has entered market to balance energy needs... Otherwise it is not going to be pretty.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1548 on: January 24, 2017, 09:03:21 PM »
The NHTSA Report Exonerating Tesla Should Terrify the Auto Sector
Quote
Last week’s National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) report on Joshua Brown’s fatal Autopilot accident does a lot more than exonerate Tesla. It’s a stamp of approval for Tesla’s entire ecosystem and rollout strategy, from Autopilot to data gathering to wireless updates.

Legacy auto makers should be terrified.
...

NHTSA investigator Kareem Habib dismantles every argument critics and competitors have been firing at Tesla since Autopilot was released in October of 2015. The report is explicit: the Tesla crash rate declined 40% after Autopilot’s release. Tesla’s safety technologies are not defective. Tesla is clear about driver responsibility. Tesla provides clear engagement and disengagement alerts....
http://www.thedrive.com/opinion/7081/the-nhtsa-report-exonerating-tesla-should-terrify-the-auto-sector
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oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1549 on: January 24, 2017, 11:05:42 PM »
To which oren apparently says, "Hurray! Progress! So what? It's inevitable anyway."

But to which Marx said: "Organize and resist, and take back the means of production." (Or some such.)

I guess it's up to each to decide which side of that ethics they're on. Or find a third (or tenth) side?  :)
Wili, I've been gone from this thread for a few days and didn't realize my post would elicit such a response. I am NOT saying all innovation is good, I'm not even calling it progress, certainly no cheers and Hurray. Some innovation is good (usually with side effects) and some is bad. But I find this particular innovation of automated driving to be very valuable for many businesses and private citizens, in many countries, and as such will be impossible to stop despite the disastrous social consequences. I am not making an ethical statement, I am merely making a layman's prediction. There are many innovations that I wish gone and forgotten, but they still exist unfortunately.