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Author Topic: Global Surface Air Temperatures  (Read 331873 times)

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1350 on: March 15, 2017, 04:12:48 PM »
Statistics don't corroborate acceleration. Until then pattern matching  is similar to what deniers do with cherries.

I'm curious.  So....what do the statistics say about:

1)  The long term rate of sea level rise from 1900 - 2015......vs.....the ever increasing RATE of sea level rise in the four time periods of (a) 1900 - 1930 rise of .6mm per year (b) 1930 - 1992 sea level rise of 1.2 mm per year (c) 1993 - 2015 of 3.2 mm per year (d) 2010 - 2015 of 4.4 mm per year.  Those "look" like statistics to me.....but I'm not a statistics guy....so maybe I am wrong.  Would love for you to correct me and point me in the right direction for those statistics if you could.

2)  Also curious what the statistics say about the rate of change in Feb air temperatures from 1890 to 2017......vs........the rate of change from 1890 to 1972/73 AND 1972/73 to 2017.  Would be curious to see what your statistics say about those TWO intermediate term rate of changes.....vs the rate of change for the whole period from 1890 to 2017.

Thanks for your help....

 
« Last Edit: March 16, 2017, 11:44:51 AM by Buddy »
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1351 on: March 15, 2017, 04:27:34 PM »
As far as I can see we have two 'new' blocks of energy entering into the climate system that were not present the last time we saw temps rising fast ( 1980's/90's)?

The Albedo flip across the north ( early removal of snow cover/Sea ice removal) and the reduction in China's pollution over the Pacific ( and on into the whole atmosphere but most noted down wind of the polluter?).

On top of that we have another dollop of GHG's in the system to hold onto any 'extra' heat we are able to amass?

I find it no surprise that the flip to their 'warm' state of PDO /IPO , in 2014, coincides with the start of year on year record warm temps?

If the excessive dimming , over the Pacific regions worst impacted, played a role in 'The Pause' then its flip side will help warming.

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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1352 on: March 15, 2017, 04:30:29 PM »
Statistics don't corroborate acceleration. Until then pattern matching  is similar to what deniers do with cherries

What a shame that if you zoom in close enough on any exponential trend it looks just like a linear trend. Of course we can use common sense and evidence to infer the acceleration, but the case is certainly weaker until the statistics catch up.

Hopefully it is not too late by the time we get better statistics.

Or we could choose to apply corrections to the observed surface temperature data to account for such factors as: (a) dimming aerosols and volcanic activity; (b) thermal inertia of the oceans and the lag that it induces in atmospheric surface temps, (c) recent dimming of solar radiation, (d) non-uniform temperature distribution (i.e. we should give weighted importance to Arctic temperatures given the clear risk of Arctic Amplification; and (e) instead of being fixated on deductive logic we should give equal weight to inductive logic where we begin our analysis using ACME Phase I projections as our priori and use observed data to create new posteriors.

Edit: Per the following linked website, the ACME Phase I climate projections should be available by the end of 2017.

https://climatemodeling.science.energy.gov/projects/accelerated-climate-modeling-energy

Edit2: Discounting inductive logic is not scientific.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 04:41:46 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1353 on: March 15, 2017, 04:32:33 PM »
If the excessive dimming , over the Pacific regions worst impacted, played a role in 'The Pause' then its flip side will help warming.

Great point....and I agree wholeheartedly.
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1354 on: March 15, 2017, 05:06:37 PM »
Noaa GISS is out.  February 1.10 anomaly, 2nd highest with 3rd highest 1998 at 0.89C.

If a denier tries to take comfort from that, mention that Feb 2017 is 0.44C higher than the year after the 1998 super el nino.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1355 on: March 15, 2017, 05:15:15 PM »
GISS NASA for February just came out! February 2017 was a solidly second warmest on record with an anomaly estimated to +1,10o above the 1951-1980 average. Only January-March 2016 have had bigger anomalies. December 2015 was on pair with February 2017.

While it's too soon to make any solid conclusions we are already seeing anomalies higher than 2015 despite a weak La Niña through the winter. This should say something about the upcoming years anomalies as well as when the next El Niño arrives. At this stage we can be fairly sure that we most likely won't see any year from now having an annual anomaly similar to 2014 (+0,74o). Given that next winter get roughly the same anomalies as 2017 and if an El Niño of decent strength is coming up the odds should be fairly high that we'll see a new record warm year then.

In fact, it's not impossible that we'll see such a year very soon. ECMWF just came out with their forecast for Niño 3.4 area. With the reservation for that we are in the spring barrier, the forecast from ECMWF depicts a high likelihood for a moderate El Niño by fall.


AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1356 on: March 15, 2017, 05:35:20 PM »
Noaa GISS is out.  February 1.10 anomaly, 2nd highest with 3rd highest 1998 at 0.89C.

If a denier tries to take comfort from that, mention that Feb 2017 is 0.44C higher than the year after the 1998 super el nino.

This gives a GISS 12-month running average GMSTA thru Feb 2017 of 0.94C w.r.t. the 1951-1980 average; or of 1.20C w.r.t. pre-industrial (assuming a 0.256C adjustment factor).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1357 on: March 15, 2017, 05:58:09 PM »
Planet Earth, on track for its second warmest year in history.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1358 on: March 15, 2017, 06:01:17 PM »
You mean third or fourth in a row....
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1359 on: March 15, 2017, 06:13:43 PM »
Planet Earth, on track for its second warmest year in history.
You mean third or fourth in a row....
Sigmetnow may have meant 2017 is on track to be the second warmest (not warmest) year in recorded history, overtaking 2015, but not overtaking 2016. (2015 is the current 2nd warmest and it was the second warmest year in a row at the time, given that 2014 was warmest in its day.)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1360 on: March 15, 2017, 06:20:44 PM »
When we had a U.S. administration looking out for the environment, personal concerns seemed less important.  But now that we have an administration of climate deniers and anti-environmentalists... yes, we're worried.

New Gallup poll:

Global Warming Concern at Three-Decade High in US
• Americans worrying a great deal up eight percentage points to 45%
• New high of 62% says effects of global warming are happening now
• Belief that global warming poses a serious threat stretches to 42%

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Record percentages of Americans are concerned about global warming, believe it is occurring, consider it a serious threat and say it is caused by human activity. All of these perceptions are up significantly from 2015.
...
http://www.gallup.com/poll/206030/global-warming-concern-three-decade-high.aspx
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1361 on: March 15, 2017, 06:22:33 PM »
Planet Earth, on track for its second warmest year in history.
You mean third or fourth in a row....
Sigmetnow may have meant 2017 is on track to be the second warmest (not warmest) year in recorded history, overtaking 2015, but not overtaking 2016. (2015 is the current 2nd warmest and it was the second warmest year in a row at the time, given that 2014 was warmest in its day.)

Not that it matters much, in the context of things, but:  yes.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1362 on: March 15, 2017, 06:24:37 PM »
As you can see form my post with the updated ENSO forecast from ECMWF there is a small chance that 2017 could match last year if an El Niño of decent strength evolves later this year given the exceptionally warm start of 2017.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1363 on: March 15, 2017, 06:52:21 PM »
Not that it matters much, in the context of things, but:  yes.

I was not trying to be pedantic. It's just incredible that it is even possible...
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1364 on: March 15, 2017, 07:08:32 PM »
Not that it matters much, in the context of things, but:  yes.

I was not trying to be pedantic. It's just incredible that it is even possible...

Per Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth, if the rest of 2017 trends like the first two months, then 2017 will be warmer than 2016:

Edit: We are now living in a non-stationary world w.r.t. the acceleration of the GMSTA.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 07:45:38 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1365 on: March 16, 2017, 12:21:30 PM »
DrTskoul:

Per my earlier post in entry #1346....I posted the temperature chart from the Japan Meteorological Society.  On that chart that goes from 1890 to 2017....I also inserted what I believe to be a change in the long term trend (the green "channel").  Keep in mind....that this "change in trend" started about in 1960....so we're talking about 50 - 60 years (those are BIG cherries:).

Your statement was:

Statistics don't corroborate acceleration. Until then pattern matching  is similar to what deniers do with cherries.


I followed up with the following:

I'm curious.  So....what do the statistics say about:

1)  The long term rate of sea level rise from 1900 - 2015......vs.....the ever increasing RATE of sea level rise in the four time periods of (a) 1900 - 1930 rise of .6mm per year (b) 1930 - 1992 sea level rise of 1.2 mm per year (c) 1993 - 2015 of 3.2 mm per year (d) 2010 - 2015 of 4.4 mm per year.  Those "look" like statistics to me.....but I'm not a statistics guy....so maybe I am wrong.  Would love for you to correct me and point me in the right direction for those statistics if you could.

2)  Also curious what the statistics say about the rate of change in Feb air temperatures from 1890 to 2017......vs........the rate of change from 1890 to 1972/73 AND 1972/73 to 2017.  Would be curious to see what your statistics say about those TWO intermediate term rate of changes.....vs the rate of change for the whole period from 1890 to 2017.

Thanks for your help....

I assumed.....perhaps incorrectly......that you had "statistics" to back up your claim that there has NOT been any increase in the RATE OF TEMPERATURE INCREASE over the last 50 - 60 years (per my green channel which DOES SHOW an increase in rate).

In addition....I also showed where the RATE of sea level rise has been increasing over the last 80 or so years in entry #1347 (it almost seems like there might be a connection).

I look forward to seeing your "statistics" that show there has NOT been an increase in the rate of temperature rise over the last 50 - 60 years.  I haven't seen any such statistics....but that certainly doesn't mean they don't exist.  I look forward to you showing them to me....

When you show that to me....then I'll know for sure that all I have been doing is "picking cherries." ;)  This isn't an 18 year window of time.....this is a 50 - 60 year period of time.....backed up by (1) sea levels that are increasing their RATE of rise (2)  decreasing sea ice cover (3) increasing feedback effects.

Look forward to seeing your statistics.......

 
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DrTskoul

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1366 on: March 16, 2017, 12:58:26 PM »
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/09/14/speedup-skeptic/

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/10/06/extreme-denial-2/

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/10/14/by-request-adjusted-satellite-and-surface-data/

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/12/01/prolonging-a-non-slowdown-in-global-warming/

best fit is linear from the 70's, after adjustment for ENSO, volcanic and solar contributions. 

Point is, we do not need to exaggerate a temperature runaway. The current trend is pretty damn alarming...

Regarding trends from 1880's (cool down due to natural trend) and 40's - 60's cool down due to aerosols , those do not say anything about acceleration.
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1367 on: March 16, 2017, 01:19:15 PM »
best fit is linear from the 70's, after adjustment for ENSO, volcanic and solar contributions. 

The "channel" is FORMED BY STATISTICS.  That's one of the nice things about being a CPA.......you go with independent and verifiable facts.

In this case....the "green channel" formed from 1960 today IS FORMED BY STATISTICS (not short term cherries picked from the tree).  Those points say....what they say.

 
Point is, we do not need to exaggerate a temperature runaway. The current trend is pretty damn alarming...

THERE IS NO EXAGGERATION.  I would LOVE it if there was.....but there isn't.  That channel points out ACTUAL HISTORY.  And it points out the DIRECTION and the LIKELY RATE over the next decade or two.  You may not like that....but that is where we are.

I expect to see temperatures to be WITHIN that "green channel" over the coming decade.   To me...that is the LIKELY REALITY CHANNEL......with REAL NUMBERS.

Hopefully we will be smart enough to make sure another channel increase doesn't happen.  But if we're stupid enough....that could ALSO happen.  So far I haven't seen a LOT OF SIGNS pointing towards our intelligence in dealing with this.  Cutting back on the EPA standards is probably not  going to help steady the rise of temperatures. ;)



 


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DrTskoul

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1368 on: March 16, 2017, 01:31:56 PM »
The new channel will be formed if the natural sinks of CO2 become less effective. Until then the logarithm of the CO2 concentration will control the warming
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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DrTskoul

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1369 on: March 16, 2017, 01:34:15 PM »
Regarding stupidity, I don't have faith anymore. It's increasing.
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1370 on: March 16, 2017, 01:49:04 PM »
The new channel will be formed if the natural sinks of CO2 become less effective.

The new channel IS ALREADY FORMED.  And if China and India clean up their smog....there is yet one more thing to drive warming.  There is NO WAITING to see if the channel has formed......IT'S HERE.  Now....we have to try and stay within it over the SHORT TERM (10 - 20 years).....and then try to BREAK DOWN through the channel 30 - 50 years from now.

We will see how smart or how stupid humanity really is in the coming decade.

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Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1371 on: March 16, 2017, 03:39:46 PM »
Statistics don't corroborate acceleration. Until then pattern matching  is similar to what deniers do with cherries.

I'm curious.  So....what do the statistics say about:

1)  The long term rate of sea level rise from 1900 - 2015......vs.....the ever increasing RATE of sea level rise in the four time periods of (a) 1900 - 1930 rise of .6mm per year (b) 1930 - 1992 sea level rise of 1.2 mm per year (c) 1993 - 2015 of 3.2 mm per year (d) 2010 - 2015 of 4.4 mm per year.  Those "look" like statistics to me.....but I'm not a statistics guy....so maybe I am wrong.  Would love for you to correct me and point me in the right direction for those statistics if you could.

2)  Also curious what the statistics say about the rate of change in Feb air temperatures from 1890 to 2017......vs........the rate of change from 1890 to 1972/73 AND 1972/73 to 2017.  Would be curious to see what your statistics say about those TWO intermediate term rate of changes.....vs the rate of change for the whole period from 1890 to 2017.

Thanks for your help....

My comment about still being able to make an argument that the trend is linear had to do with the topic of this thread, Global Surface Air temperatures, not Sea Level Rise.

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1372 on: March 16, 2017, 04:08:39 PM »
My comment about still being able to make an argument that the trend is linear had to do with the topic of this thread, Global Surface Air temperatures, not Sea Level Rise.

We will see a linear trend, if we are fortunate.  Unfortunately, the conservative linear trend (as SO2 emissions are reduced dramatically, Arctic albedo increases significantly and we shift into a perpetually positive IPO with greatly expanded tropical water vapor into the midlatitudes looks like this: 
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1373 on: March 16, 2017, 05:08:24 PM »
I took Jai's chart (from Skeptical Science)....and added "channels" to it.  Both LONG TERM....and some shorter duration channels.

The yellow channel is the long term channel from the late 1800's.....and temperatures BROKE to the upside through the upper boundary of that channel over the last 3 years after "teasing the upper side" from about 2007 - 2012.

The black channel starts in about 1960....this is really a "hope channel"....because we "hope" that we are at an intermediate high, and temps will come back down towards the lower channel.  I DON'T think we will be that lucky.  I NEVER bet on hope....I bet on facts.

The red channel is a shorter duration....starting in the early to 1990's.  THIS....is the channel that we are currently on.  I'm sure it is just a coincidence that feedback effects "seem" to be kicking into higher and higher gear as temperatures continue to ramp up. ;)

But if I were a betting man.......THE RED CHANNEL is the channel that I would bet on.  To be sure....we may have temps in the coming decade or two that may rise above AND below BOTH sides of the channel.....and over time the channel will likely become slightly broader.....but the RATE OF RISE is what I believe we will continue to see BASED ON FACTS AND STATISTICS that actually form those channels.

I don't say that to "freak people out"......or be overly pessimistic.  THAT CHART is "cold hard numbers" WITHOUT ANY EMOTION.  I HOPE....that will be wrong IN THE FUTURE.  But it is VERY FACTUAL RIGHT NOW.

If we make better decisions.....we will break DOWN through that channel.  If we don't.....then temps are heading higher.
==========================================================
There is an accounting joke.....and it reminds me of climate deniers as well as people who tend to be too optimistic (as opposed to realistic). And it goes like this....

The client walks into his accountants office after the end of the year to get his financials and taxes done:

Accountant:  "What was your ending inventory this year Ed?

Client (Ed):  "What do you WANT my inventory to be?"

============================================================

And what that "joke" tells me.....is that we can't just "hope" or "make stuff up" (like Donnie ;)).  We have to be REALISTIC.....and look for the truth, whether we LIKE that truth or not.  Good policy is made off of good facts.  And in this case....good facts and good science.

The client can't just "hope" his inventory is at a certain level.  It is what it IS.  No hoping or guessing about it.  And the same goes for global warming (I use GW rather than climate change....let's call it what it is).  Let's look at what the numbers are telling us....and then let's make good policy.  And call out people/organizations like FOX News....Joe Bastardi....Donald Trump....and whoever else is LYING ABOUT IT.  Call them what they are:  LIARS.


« Last Edit: March 16, 2017, 07:33:13 PM by Buddy »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1374 on: March 16, 2017, 06:36:58 PM »
Attached is Gavin's GISTEMP LOTI projection thru the end of 2017 based on the first two months.

Edit: Note that I am providing Gavin's statics without commenting on the accuracy of his projection.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2017, 06:44:26 PM by AbruptSLR »
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1375 on: March 16, 2017, 09:50:27 PM »
Buddy,

this also shows what you are displaying with your channels.

I assert that the green trend line (could be a 10 year channel if you drew it) - the 10 year trend is a CONSERVATIVE estimate going forward (assuming continued reductions in SO2 emissions globally and accelerated sea ice loss- leading to albedo changes.

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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1376 on: March 16, 2017, 10:08:12 PM »
this also shows what you are displaying with your channels.

YES.  Channels are "always lagging" unfortunately.  On my charts....there were 3 channels...each one with a higher slope than the last.  And yes....the 10 year channel "in red" on my chart is, unfortunately.....also a "hope channel."

April 22nd......

And here is a little "high tech" for anyone in the US wanting to contact their legislators:

https://www.good.is/admin/preview/post/anti-trump-tech

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DrTskoul

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1378 on: March 16, 2017, 11:39:23 PM »
Those damn kids got to stop playing with the thermostat...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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DrTskoul

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1379 on: March 16, 2017, 11:49:02 PM »
With some programing skills you can compute global mean temperatures yourself

http://variable-variability.blogspot.com.au/2017/01/some-programing-skills-compute-global-temperatures.html?m=1
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1380 on: March 20, 2017, 07:34:55 PM »
... the 10 year trend is a CONSERVATIVE estimate going forward (assuming continued reductions in SO2 emissions globally and accelerated sea ice loss- leading to albedo changes.

Jai,

One of the things that I noticed in your graph is that it employs a relatively high-order polynomial. The use of such functions for [forward] projection purposes is more than somewhat fraught with danger.

By way of demonstration, I have taken just one of the data series on your original - in this case, the NOAA NCEI dataset. To simplify it somewhat, I just used annual data (rather than monthly) but used March-February as the baseline period in order to incorporate the latest possible data.

The first chart is how that would appear on the NOAA NCEI website, with a linear trend line applied to the most recent 50-year period.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/12/2/1880-2017?trend=true&trend_base=10&firsttrendyear=1967&lasttrendyear=2017

To create the second chart, I simply imported the NOAA NCEI data from the above link into Excel, and then applied a variety of trend line formats. {Excel tries to limit you to a single polynomial trend, but it's pretty easy to finesse this.} As you can see, by the time the projection is out to 2039, the 50-year linear trend, as well as the 2nd, 3rd and 5th order polynomials for the entire dataset, all fall between ~ +1.1 and ~ + 1.3 degrees Celsius.

However, by 2039, the 4th order poly is up at ~ + 2.1 deg C. That amounts to a difference of about ~0.4 degC/decade.

If you look at the 5th order poly, it has just about flattened by 2039, and I'll let you work out for yourself how you think the 6th order poly might look.

Apart from all the bog-standard "health warnings", such as...

     Thou shall not use short baseline periods when doing projections, and

     Thou shall be wary of possible gross distortion introduced by unwise end-point selection,

one also must add ...

     High order polynomials need to be treated with extreme caution

N.B. If you repeat this for yourself using a smoothed 10-year rolling average (instead of single year values) you will see that the various trends largely mirror their single year cousins.

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1381 on: March 20, 2017, 07:55:55 PM »
which graph are you referring to? I posted two.  The first is a linear extrapolation of the past 10-year trend.  The second has a low-order polynomial fit to the GISS Land-Ocean temperature graph but has no projection. 

The first is my work and I feel that it is very likely.  Within a minimal error bound.  based on some expectations of surface melt in the arctic and reductions of SO2 emissions.  I do expect the trend to fall below 0.4c per decade sometime around 2050 but probably not until then.
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Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1382 on: March 21, 2017, 11:59:23 PM »
which graph are you referring to? I posted two.  The first is a linear extrapolation of the past 10-year trend.  The second has a low-order polynomial fit to the GISS Land-Ocean temperature graph but has no projection. 

The first is my work and I feel that it is very likely.  Within a minimal error bound.  based on some expectations of surface melt in the arctic and reductions of SO2 emissions.  I do expect the trend to fall below 0.4c per decade sometime around 2050 but probably not until then.


OK Jai, let's start with your question "which graph are you referring to?".

Your comment #1375 has a graph showing temperature anomaly data from multiple sources.

Please consider the following points...

1) I stated that "I have taken just one of the data series on your original"
2) I linked to your comment #1375
3) I quoted directly from your comment #1375

Given the above, I hope it is now clear that I was talking about your graph on comment #1375, i.e. the second graph.

In your subsequent description of this, you have just stated that... "The second [graph] has a low-order polynomial fit to the GISS Land-Ocean temperature graph but has no projection."

However, if you look at the graph legend, it clearly states that it uses a 4th order polynomial. (That is the reason I deliberately pointed out the dangers of such a choice of trend line.) Additionally, the graph is date stamped 2014, and does contain a projection to 2020.

Irrespective of that, let's now move on to your first graph, the one based on the SkS "Tracking the 2 degC Limit" articles.
https://www.skepticalscience.com/2c-201609.html

If I plug in the latest available GisTemp Global LOTI values to Excel's SLOPE function, the 10 year trend between Feb 2007 and Feb 2017 comes out at +0.37 degC/decade.

Between Feb 2006 and Feb 2016 it was +0.24 degC/decade.

Between Feb 2005 and Feb 2015 it was +0.07 degC/decade.

That's why Rob Honeycutt finished that SkS article with the warning...
"It would be a mistake to over-interpret all this to say this is the new normal for the temperature trend (~0.45°C/dec). Instead, I would be prone to characterize this as looking like we're firmly riding a riser on the trend escalator."

Anyone unfamiliar with the SkS trend escalator can find the background here...
https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-january-2007-to-january-2008.htm

The flip side of what Rob H did was precisely what was used by "climate change sceptics" to make much ado about the so-called "pause".  In particular, the "pause" was largely an artefact of...

a) basing a projection on a baseline period which is palpably too short for purpose, and,
b) selection of an end-point which grossly biases the outcome.

For a couple of years, Christopher Monckton kept regurgitating updated versions of his "no warming since blah-blah" bollocks. Monckton's egregious claim was predicated upon RSS ver 3.3, and last year, I told Jim Hunt that I would do an article putting this under the microscope. The result is here...
http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/03/how-to-make-a-complete-rss-of-yourself/

Early this year, similar bollocks appeared in the deniosphere, but this time predicated upon the UAH version6 beta5 "upgrade". The knives therefore came out again...
http://greatwhitecon.info/2017/02/shock-news-19-years-without-warming/





James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1383 on: March 25, 2017, 12:28:35 AM »
Karsten Haustein has a combination of data a forecasts through March.

The evidence points to a most likely case of March's anomaly falling just short of  February's.  If so, it would put March 2017 solidly in second place, behind 2016.   

It's so early in the year that only a fool would try to guess year end averages, so here goes.  ;)

I will be surprised if 2017 isn't at least 2nd hottest on record.  I would be very surprised if it were to end up below the top 3, and hottest on record is well within reach.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1384 on: March 25, 2017, 08:59:19 AM »
Bill,

I agree, using a 4th order poly for forward projections is not likely.  While the graph does indeed project to 2020, the 2016 (and now 2017) are both well above that trend line.  So the 4th order is actually UNDERSTATING the warming from 2014 to 2020.

My projection is linear based on the last 10 year period.  I believe that this is a conservative estimate and that we will maintain 0.36 (or more) warming per decade for at least the next 15 years.  In fact, when we achieve effective ice-free conditions in the arctic before 2023 the temp will be rising significantly due to albedo changes.  However, the reduction of aerosol emissions in Asia will be the larger driver, with associated atmospheric circulation changes and feedbacks from water vapor and lapse rate increases.

There is significant indication now that aerosol emissions and indonesian peat fires have had a much greater seasonal cooling effect WRT persistent La Nina and has been a primary contributor to the lower rates of warming found in the 00s.   This means that a significant amount of warming has been delayed, locked in and ready to fire.  We are seeing this now in the first 3 months of 2017 which are warmer than the first 3 months of the super El Nino of 1998.  Another El Nino is coming later this year and I expect we will soon have permanent El Nino.

So my linear projection through 2036 at +0.36 per decade is quite conservative. 

but yeah, a 4th order poly projection is not realistic in the long range (over 60 years) and irregardless is not a word.   8)
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1385 on: March 25, 2017, 01:33:17 PM »
I shall use it irrespective of your view.   >:(

Miriam Webster

irregardless
adverb ir·re·gard·less \ˌir-i-ˈgärd-ləs\

 nonstandard
 :  regardless

Is irregardless a word?

Irregardless was popularized in dialectal American speech in the early 20th century. Its increasingly widespread spoken use called it to the attention of usage commentators as early as 1927. The most frequently repeated remark about it is that “there is no such word.” There is such a word, however. It is still used primarily in speech, although it can be found from time to time in edited prose. Its reputation has not risen over the years, and it is still a long way from general acceptance. Use regardless instead.


Examples of irregardless in a sentence

I told them that irregardless of what you read in books, they's some members of the theatrical profession that occasionally visits the place where they sleep. —Ring Lardner, The Big Town, 1921

Origin and Etymology of irregardless;

probably blend of irrespective and regardless


jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1386 on: March 25, 2017, 10:06:01 PM »
miriam webster
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/nonstandard

    1
    :  not standard

    2
    :  not conforming in pronunciation, grammatical construction, idiom, or word choice to the usage generally characteristic of educated native speakers of a language — compare substandard
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oren

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1387 on: March 26, 2017, 08:19:17 AM »
Since we are already OT: What's up with that Miriam?  ::)

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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1388 on: April 02, 2017, 07:30:42 PM »
According to Nick Stokes numbers, March ended up being more or less on air with February. In absolutely numbers, the anomaly for March was however 0,01oC lower compared to February.

According to Karsten Haustein on twitter (https://twitter.com/khaustein/status/848539013971619844), March 2017 was 0,03oC warmer than February.

Ryan Maues calculations shows that March 2017 was 0,115oC cooler compared to the record warm March 2016. His tweet: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/848022388658909184

Conclusions: March 2017 will with a 99% likelyhood (my own opinion) be the 2nd warmest on record. I expect the March anomaly from GISS NASA to be somewhere in the range 1,05-1,12oC above the 1951-1980 average.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1389 on: April 02, 2017, 11:52:10 PM »
According to Nick Stokes numbers, March ended up being more or less on air with February. In absolutely numbers, the anomaly for March was however 0,01oC lower compared to February.

Just to support LMV's post, the two linked images are from Nick Stokes' website & provide monthly and daily NCEP-NCAR GMSTA values through March 31, 2017
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1390 on: April 04, 2017, 07:59:49 PM »
Guys, Copernicus just arrived with their analysis for March. No surprise here, March was the  second warmest on record and 0,10oC cooler compared to March 2016. This number make me believe that a NASA GISS anomaly around 1,07-1,15oC above the average seemsquite reasonable.


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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1391 on: April 07, 2017, 03:30:12 PM »
Guys, Copernicus just arrived with their analysis for March. No surprise here, March was the  second warmest on record and 0,10oC cooler compared to March 2016. This number make me believe that a NASA GISS anomaly around 1,07-1,15oC above the average seemsquite reasonable.

And as Copernicus showed for March.....northern Russia was one of the "primary culprits."  It has been warmer than normal from Jan through March.  If it continues.....Russia could see a very nasty fire season.....like it did in 2010.  Canada has also been warmer than usual... Arctic amplification in full bloom....

Below is a look at the "record high to record low ratio" for Russia and Canada through April 4th.  So far....this has been a toasty year in Russia:



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Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1392 on: April 08, 2017, 07:49:53 PM »
HadSST311 figures have now arrived. Here are the warmest 12 March values, with the anomalies given in degrees Celsius...

2016/03   0.69
2017/03   0.55
1998/03   0.482
2010/03   0.47
2002/03   0.453
2015/03   0.424
2003/03   0.405
2005/03   0.375
2001/03   0.366
2014/03   0.347
2004/03   0.314
2007/03   0.304

It makes depressing reading.

NOAA's recent Nino3.4 numbers are equally worrying, as the last thing we need is for a relatively rapid return to el Nino conditions.
(col 3 = actual; col 4 = climatology; col 5 = anomaly)

2016  11   25.96   26.88   -0.93
2016  12   26.08   26.80   -0.72
2017   1   26.24   26.61   -0.37
2017   2   26.63   26.80   -0.17
2017   3   27.30   27.32   -0.02

Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1393 on: April 08, 2017, 09:37:33 PM »
Since we are already OT: What's up with that Miriam?  ::)

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An old English grade school teacher I had. Always check in with her regarding proper word usage.  ::)

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1394 on: April 10, 2017, 07:25:47 PM »
According to this AMS paper the first year to go above 1 degree Celsius was 2015.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1

Using this lower bound, 2015 was the first year to be more than 1◦ C above pre-industrial levels in each global temperature dataset (Fig. 5). 2016 is currently on track to be warmer than 2015, but future years could still be cooler than 2015 due to internal variability, such as a La Nina event.


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Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1395 on: April 14, 2017, 07:30:50 PM »
...
Conclusions: March 2017 will with a 99% likelyhood (my own opinion) be the 2nd warmest on record. I expect the March anomaly from GISS NASA to be somewhere in the range 1,05-1,12oC above the 1951-1980 average.

...
 This number make me believe that a NASA GISS anomaly around 1,07-1,15oC above the average seems quite reasonable.

NASA's Gistemp LOTI has been updated in the last couple of hours. When the March temperatures are ranked, the 6 warmest years are...

2016 +1.28 deg C
2017 +1.12 deg C
2010 +0.92 deg C
2002 +0.91 deg C
2015 +0.90 deg C
2014 +0.77 deg C

Nice one, LMV. I think that can safely be given the accolade of "good call".


Interestingly, and more than a trifle worryingly, is the fact that each of the 4 most recent years features in that short list.

DavidR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1396 on: April 17, 2017, 05:07:30 AM »
2016 +1.28 deg C
2017 +1.12 deg C
2010 +0.92 deg C
2002 +0.91 deg C
2015 +0.90 deg C
2014 +0.77 deg C

Nice one, LMV. I think that can safely be given the accolade of "good call".

Interestingly, and more than a trifle worryingly, is the fact that each of the 4 most recent years features in that short list.

Also worth noting is that  according to GISS, 2 of the 5 largest anomalies on record have occurred this year.  Feb at 1.10 and Mar at 1.12.   

On average the Jan - Mar YTD anomaly figure (2017 = 1.04)  matches the annual anomaly figure.
Based on this an initial estimate of the annual figure would put  it 0.06 above last  year annual figure 0f 0.98. 

The probability of a further record temperature this year based on GISS would be around 70%. The NOAA-ESRL data is a little more conservative giving a probability of about 50%.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1397 on: April 17, 2017, 03:11:23 PM »
Also worth noting is that  according to GISS, 2 of the 5 largest anomalies on record have occurred this year.  Feb at 1.10 and Mar at 1.12.   

On average the Jan - Mar YTD anomaly figure (2017 = 1.04)  matches the annual anomaly figure.
Based on this an initial estimate of the annual figure would put  it 0.06 above last  year annual figure 0f 0.98. 

The probability of a further record temperature this year based on GISS would be around 70%. The NOAA-ESRL data is a little more conservative giving a probability of about 50%.

Yes but,

2016 averaged 1.24 for YT Mar but ended up at only 0.98 so it can end up lower by up to 0.26 or perhaps more. 2016 El Nino had peaked so the 2 month delay effect was waning so so surprise that year ended up quite a lot lower. However the non linear 10 month delay effect is now running out so we can expect 2017 to also be quite a bit lower.

The best model I’ve found so far (there’s a lot more to test) involves a linear el Niño effect which lags only 2 months behind the el Niño itself, a nonlinear el Niño effect which lags 10 months, and a seasonal effectiveness of the el Niño impact.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/el-nino-and-the-2015-record-breaking-heat/

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1398 on: April 17, 2017, 03:25:34 PM »
FYI....

« Last Edit: April 17, 2017, 03:32:09 PM by Buddy »
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1399 on: April 17, 2017, 03:51:29 PM »
Here is the same chart.....with the last two "channels."  There is clearly no "rocket science" here....only drawing short/intermediate term "channels" that contain the actual results.....and an "open question" as to what the next few years will bring:  Back down into the channel....OR....are we working on a new STEEPER channel with slightly accelerating temps?

I don't have the answer to that one.....only pointing out ACTUAL HISTORY.
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