which graph are you referring to? I posted two. The first is a linear extrapolation of the past 10-year trend. The second has a low-order polynomial fit to the GISS Land-Ocean temperature graph but has no projection.
The first is my work and I feel that it is very likely. Within a minimal error bound. based on some expectations of surface melt in the arctic and reductions of SO2 emissions. I do expect the trend to fall below 0.4c per decade sometime around 2050 but probably not until then.
OK Jai, let's start with your question "which graph are you referring to?".
Your comment #1375 has a graph showing temperature anomaly data from multiple sources.
Please consider the following points...
1) I stated that "I have taken just one of the data series on your original"
2) I linked to your comment #1375
3) I quoted directly from your comment #1375
Given the above, I hope it is now clear that I was talking about your graph on comment #1375, i.e. the second graph.
In your subsequent description of this, you have just stated that... "The second [graph] has a low-order polynomial fit to the GISS Land-Ocean temperature graph but has no projection."
However, if you look at the graph legend, it clearly states that it uses a 4th order polynomial. (That is the reason I deliberately pointed out the dangers of such a choice of trend line.) Additionally, the graph is date stamped 2014, and does contain a projection to 2020.
Irrespective of that, let's now move on to your first graph, the one based on the SkS "Tracking the 2 degC Limit" articles.https://www.skepticalscience.com/2c-201609.html
If I plug in the latest available GisTemp Global LOTI values to Excel's SLOPE function, the 10 year trend between Feb 2007 and Feb 2017 comes out at +0.37 degC/decade.
Between Feb 2006 and Feb 2016 it was +0.24 degC/decade.
Between Feb 2005 and Feb 2015 it was +0.07 degC/decade.
That's why Rob Honeycutt finished that SkS article with the warning... "It would be a mistake to over-interpret all this to say this is the new normal for the temperature trend (~0.45°C/dec). Instead, I would be prone to characterize this as looking like we're firmly riding a riser on the trend escalator."
Anyone unfamiliar with the SkS trend escalator can find the background here...https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-january-2007-to-january-2008.htm
The flip side of what Rob H did was precisely what was used by "climate change sceptics" to make much ado about the so-called "pause". In particular, the "pause" was largely an artefact of...
a) basing a projection on a baseline period which is palpably too short for purpose, and,
b) selection of an end-point which grossly biases the outcome.
For a couple of years, Christopher Monckton kept regurgitating updated versions of his "no warming since blah-blah" bollocks. Monckton's egregious claim was predicated upon RSS ver 3.3, and last year, I told Jim Hunt that I would do an article putting this under the microscope. The result is here...http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/03/how-to-make-a-complete-rss-of-yourself/
Early this year, similar bollocks appeared in the deniosphere, but this time predicated upon the UAH version6 beta5 "upgrade". The knives therefore came out again...http://greatwhitecon.info/2017/02/shock-news-19-years-without-warming/