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Author Topic: Global Surface Air Temperatures  (Read 259565 times)

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1400 on: April 17, 2017, 04:30:11 PM »
Yes but,

2016 averaged 1.24 for YT Mar but ended up at only 0.98 so it can end up lower by up to 0.26 or perhaps more. 2016 El Nino had peaked so the 2 month delay effect was waning so so surprise that year ended up quite a lot lower. However the non linear 10 month delay effect is now running out so we can expect 2017 to also be quite a bit lower.

Still, at the beginning of 2016 Gavin Schmidt projected that by now we would be about +1.0C above pre-industrial but the 12-month GISS land and ocean GMSTA above pre-industrial through the end of March 2017 was over +1.18C.  So should not feel too comforted by these new numbers.
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1401 on: April 17, 2017, 05:42:29 PM »
I have a check-in with skeptical sciences that we will be sitting at +1.5C above pre-industrial for the 12-month average ending in May 2018.
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1402 on: April 18, 2017, 01:34:04 PM »
Here is a "stab" at a POSSIBLE new channel being formed.  Again....this is NOT rocket science...only a stab at what "might be forming."

The "fundamentals" certainly seem to be in place for this to have already started:

1)  increasing CO2 and methane
2)  Current and future decreases in China air pollution....leading to more warming
3)  Increase in various feedback effects.....permafrost, ice melt, wildfires, etc...

So...the fundamentals seem (yes...that is a loaded word) to support the possibility/likelihood of "warmer faster".....

Clearly....we won't know for at least a handful of years....maybe more.  But this is something that we certainly could be looking IN THE NEARTERM in the years ahead....



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bbr2314

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1403 on: April 19, 2017, 12:44:37 AM »
Does anyone else find it slightly disturbing that our last episode of sustained major warming culminated in 1945, the same year that saw the peak of global slaughter and the first use of nuclear weapons? I hope it isn't a precedent for what's to come in the next few years...

Side note: would it be possible to compare the above temperature graph to annual global GDP growth? I strongly suspect there is a substantial correlation.

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1404 on: April 19, 2017, 03:31:57 PM »
Side note: would it be possible to compare the above temperature graph to annual global GDP growth? I strongly suspect there is a substantial correlation.

Yes...I would suspect there is a pretty good correlation as well.  Of course.....GOING FOREWARD, there doesn't HAVE to be.  People are JUST NOW beginning to "figure out" what a sustainable world will look like.  And it doesn't mean using up everything in the world.

We have a LONG WAYS TO GO both on the environmental front....as well as the economic and social fronts.  Some interesting challenges ahead of us in the next decade or two.  Since facts and truth NEVER GO AWAY....I suspect we will stumble TOWARDS THEM....but not at the pace we could or should.   
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1405 on: April 19, 2017, 07:11:35 PM »
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+3C today

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1406 on: April 19, 2017, 07:33:31 PM »
« Reply #1405 on: Today at 07:11:35 PM »

So....you're saying there's more upside? ;)
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TerryM

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1407 on: April 19, 2017, 07:48:32 PM »

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1408 on: April 19, 2017, 08:20:57 PM »
NOAA's NCEI March temperature anomaly does not make comfortable reading. Possibly the only surprise is just how much it is ahead of 3rd place.


FrankS

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1409 on: April 21, 2017, 07:35:32 PM »
I think the most interesting part of yesterday's NOAA climate call was the "horse race" temperature graph showing that isn't inconceivable that 2017 could pass 2016 as the hottest on record:


Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1410 on: April 23, 2017, 01:12:15 AM »
Berkeley Earth have just updated their BEST figures. No prizes for guessing which year has the 2nd highest March value.

2016 +1.227 deg C
2017 +1.123 deg C
2002 +0.867 deg C
2010 +0.866 deg C
2015 +0.826 deg C

2016 & 2017 are streets ahead in terms of y-t-d anomaly.


http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Global/Land_and_Ocean_complete.txt

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1411 on: April 23, 2017, 02:14:10 PM »
From CCI-Reanalyzer:-
World Temp Anomaly     0.31 degrees Celsius,
World SST anomaly        0.39 degrees Celsius.

I first noticed this yesterday. Is it unusual for global temperature anomaly to be less than global SST anomaly?

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1412 on: April 23, 2017, 04:19:29 PM »
From CCI-Reanalyzer:-
World Temp Anomaly     0.31 degrees Celsius,
World SST anomaly        0.39 degrees Celsius.

I first noticed this yesterday. Is it unusual for global temperature anomaly to be less than global SST anomaly?

Using HadCRUT and HadSST monthly values...

From Jan 1850 to Feb 2017 (inclusive), there were 862 occasions (out of 2006 pairs of values) in which the SST value was higher.

From Jan 2000 to Feb 2017, the ratio plummets to just 11 from 206.

The last such occurrence was October 2016, and the time before that was July 2014.

wehappyfew

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1413 on: April 23, 2017, 04:34:26 PM »
Unfortunately, CCI uses different baselines for SAT and SST, making the comparison more difficult.

SAT baseline = 1979-2000
SST baseline = 1971-2000

So we would expect the anomaly to be different, due to warming during the non-overlapping baseline period of 1971 to 1978... CCI SST anomaly should be slightly higher than SAT anomaly even if the absolute temps are the same.

Physics say the oceans are usually warmer than the air. Shortwave solar energy absorbed by the dark ocean, released to the atmosphere, then to space. Heat flows from warmer to colder.

As Bill F. points out, the monthly datasets and reanalyses like NCEP consistently show absolute SST are higher than SAT.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1414 on: April 24, 2017, 01:44:51 PM »
From CCI-Reanalyzer:-
World Temp Anomaly     0.31 degrees Celsius,
World SST anomaly        0.39 degrees Celsius.

I first noticed this yesterday. Is it unusual for global temperature anomaly to be less than global SST anomaly?

Using HadCRUT and HadSST monthly values...

From Jan 1850 to Feb 2017 (inclusive), there were 862 occasions (out of 2006 pairs of values) in which the SST value was higher.

From Jan 2000 to Feb 2017, the ratio plummets to just 11 from 206.

The last such occurrence was October 2016, and the time before that was July 2014.

That difference between the anomalies is more or less the same today.

                         Observations of Anomalies         
                       sst > air   Total    Percent >air temp anomaly
Jan 1850 to Feb 2017    862          2006                43%
Jan 1850 to Jan 2000     851           1800        47%
Jan 2000 to Feb 2017   11            206                 5%

So it can be said the current observation is an anomaly. I ask simply because of an idle speculation on where the excess energy being trapped by excess CO2 is going. If the proportion swallowed into long-term storage in the oceans increases and into the atmosphere consequently decreases, one could end up with greater long-term AGW but in the shorter-term another idiotic climategate "hiatus" debate. But this change would have to persist for a good while, so perhaps flying this kite is a bit dumb.



Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1415 on: April 24, 2017, 03:10:43 PM »
Does anyone else find it slightly disturbing that our last episode of sustained major warming culminated in 1945, the same year that saw the peak of global slaughter and the first use of nuclear weapons? I hope it isn't a precedent for what's to come in the next few years...

Side note: would it be possible to compare the above temperature graph to annual global GDP growth? I strongly suspect there is a substantial correlation.

Since I first saw this spike in temperatures during WWII and the subsequent drop, I have always wondered why this happened. I doubt it is war related. Can someone with more knowledge than me explain this?

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1416 on: April 24, 2017, 03:28:53 PM »
Since I first saw this spike in temperatures during WWII and the subsequent drop, I have always wondered why this happened. I doubt it is war related. Can someone with more knowledge than me explain this?

I don't have more knowledge....nor do I have an answer....BUT....I am afraid there may not be good enough information for that time period.  Since the ocean is where MOST of the global warming happens....AND....we don't have very good info on ocean temperatures going back that far.

As well....we only have exact readings of CO2 going back to about 1958.  So without those two pieces of the puzzle....it might be tough.

You might take a peak at La Nina's to see if there were abnormally strong La Nina's or absence of El Nino's during that time period from 1945 - 1965.  Also....sun activity would need to be looked at as well.

More questions than answers I'm afraid..... :-[


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Bruce Steele

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1417 on: April 24, 2017, 04:25:09 PM »
I know it's too simplistic an answer but 1945 was the start of a cold water PDO phase. Also the "pause"that started ~ 2000 was another cold water PDO shift. We are currently in a Warm water phase that only started a few years ago and is expected to last another ten of fifteen years. If global air temps are sensitive to the PDO phase this isn't a good indication of near term temperature trends.


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_tsplot_jan2017.png

crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1418 on: April 24, 2017, 05:28:12 PM »
Is that the time of change from buckets to engine intake temperatures for SST? That has been blamed for some of the difference, I believe.

Archimid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1419 on: April 24, 2017, 05:31:46 PM »
I know it's too simplistic an answer but 1945 was the start of a cold water PDO phase. Also the "pause"that started ~ 2000 was another cold water PDO shift. We are currently in a Warm water phase that only started a few years ago and is expected to last another ten of fifteen years. If global air temps are sensitive to the PDO phase this isn't a good indication of near term temperature trends.


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_tsplot_jan2017.png


I think the PDO is the great question here. Is it in a true positive cycle for the next 15 years? Or maybe this is just a fluke (maybe caused by removal of aerosols) and it will switch to negative soon?

If it does switch to negative we might see the Arctic recover. If it doesn't, god help us all.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1420 on: April 25, 2017, 10:13:04 AM »
Since I first saw this spike in temperatures during WWII and the subsequent drop, I have always wondered why this happened. I doubt it is war related. Can someone with more knowledge than me explain this?

Aerosols to the lot of you.   ;)

There is a wealth of material available on this. A decent starting point is...
https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-mid-20th-century-basic.htm

(HINT: For those unfamiliar with the SkS series of Climate Change Rebuttals, it is worth going through the Basic/Intermediate/Advanced in that sequence.)

Some more perspective can be gained by looking at these two tables...
https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_history.php
https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_population.php


Gray-Wolf

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1421 on: April 25, 2017, 10:28:08 AM »
I sure wouldn't be dangling buckets over the side of the ship in an air raid!!! It does highlight how big a difference a change in methodology can have on a data series and why we go to all the trouble to marry one type of measurement with another?

It was never just engine intake though? The type , and volume of bucket was never standardised nor the time on deck before temps were taken.All these differences could lead to anomalous reading being presented?

As long as we trust that nobody is trying to fool us ( as the deniers appear keen to believe?) then we should trust their efforts to bring us data!
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wili

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1422 on: April 25, 2017, 01:33:45 PM »
Here's a nice piece from SkS about why increased concentrations of GHG plus albedo shift make such a powerful GW combination:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/SkS_Analogy_02_Ferrari_without_gas.html
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1423 on: April 25, 2017, 03:44:15 PM »
I know it's too simplistic an answer but 1945 was the start of a cold water PDO phase. Also the "pause"that started ~ 2000 was another cold water PDO shift. We are currently in a Warm water phase that only started a few years ago and is expected to last another ten of fifteen years. If global air temps are sensitive to the PDO phase this isn't a good indication of near term temperature trends.


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_tsplot_jan2017.png


I think the PDO is the great question here. Is it in a true positive cycle for the next 15 years? Or maybe this is just a fluke (maybe caused by removal of aerosols) and it will switch to negative soon?

If it does switch to negative we might see the Arctic recover. If it doesn't, god help us all.


So lets say it is the removal of aerosols. That is even worse news as this reduction in aerosols is going to accelerate as the nations who consume the most coal (China) continue to work to improve their air quality.

Archimid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1424 on: April 25, 2017, 04:24:03 PM »
That is even worse news as this reduction in aerosols is going to accelerate as the nations who consume the most coal (China) continue to work to improve their air quality.

That indeed makes matters worse. A possible solution to permanent global warming causes temporary global warming.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1425 on: April 26, 2017, 01:34:58 AM »
The linked reference discusses recent trends in GMSTA:

Stefan Rahmstorf, Grant Foster and Niamh Cahill (2017), "Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls", Environmental Research Letters

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6825

Abstract: "Global surface temperatures continue to rise. In most surface temperature data sets, the years 2014, 2015 and again 2016 set new global heat records since the start of regular measurements. Never before have three record years occurred in a row. We show that this recent streak of record heat does not in itself provide statistical evidence for an acceleration of global warming, nor was it preceded by a 'slowdown period' with a significantly reduced rate of warming. Rather, the data are fully consistent with a steady global warming trend since the 1970s, superimposed with random, stationary, short-term variability. All recent variations in short-term trends are well within what was to be expected, based on the observed warming trend and the observed variability from the 1970s up to the year 2000. We discuss some pitfalls of statistical analysis of global temperatures which have led to incorrect claims of an unexpected or significant warming slowdown."
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1426 on: April 26, 2017, 03:50:09 AM »
I had a short discussion with the author on this and conjectured what a +1.4C 2017 would mean to the results.  He said that, by definition, a trend must be maintained for a determined period, I believe he suggested 10 years to determine an actual trend from the statistical mean (even if a few anomalous years are greater than 2 sig!).
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1427 on: April 26, 2017, 04:32:14 AM »
I know it's too simplistic an answer but 1945 was the start of a cold water PDO phase. Also the "pause"that started ~ 2000 was another cold water PDO shift. We are currently in a Warm water phase that only started a few years ago and is expected to last another ten of fifteen years. If global air temps are sensitive to the PDO phase this isn't a good indication of near term temperature trends.


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_tsplot_jan2017.png


Archimid, I don't know if the PDO flip that started Jan. 2014 will continue or not. Generally a PDP flip lasts 15-25 years but we never really know unless we are looking in the rear view mirror. I still am unsure of what causes these long period fluctuations. The biological ramifications are quite profound however and the changes that occurred as the current warm phase started and have been dramatic . I posted recently on the Carbon Cycle page with a link to some biological problems that started with "the blob" back in 2014. This of course preceded the 2015-2016 El Niño.

https://cdfwmarine.wordpress.com/2016/03/30/perfect-storm-decimates-kelp/

If these changes are tied to the PDO and it continues for 10 to 20 more years the effects of the ocean heat is going to have consequences beyond those we are seeing with air temperatures at least here in California.

I think the PDO is the great question here. Is it in a true positive cycle for the next 15 years? Or maybe this is just a fluke (maybe caused by removal of aerosols) and it will switch to negative soon?

If it does switch to negative we might see the Arctic recover. If it doesn't, god help us all.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1428 on: April 26, 2017, 04:41:43 AM »
Archimid, Sorry the quote in my last post somehow misleadingly attributes my words to you. I tried to fix it but I am technologically challenged.

oren

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1429 on: April 26, 2017, 05:48:18 AM »
Bruce I think you are missing one "[/quote]" at the end.
For each nested quote you should have one "[/quote]" marking where you want it to end.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1430 on: April 26, 2017, 03:39:45 PM »
cci-reanalyzer says world air temp anomaly has drifted down from 0.31 to 0.22 degrees celsius in the last three days. Surely this is an oddity ? Even 0.31 seems so out of wack with the story so far this year. A pity I can't find some previous daily data from cci-reanalyzer or elsewhere to at least see how much of an oddity this is.

TerryM

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1431 on: April 26, 2017, 06:25:26 PM »
cci-reanalyzer says world air temp anomaly has drifted down from 0.31 to 0.22 degrees celsius in the last three days. Surely this is an oddity ? Even 0.31 seems so out of wack with the story so far this year. A pity I can't find some previous daily data from cci-reanalyzer or elsewhere to at least see how much of an oddity this is.


This sounds more like dropping off a precipice than a "drift". As you say, both figures are suspect, but a 3 day change of .09c world wide?


Terry

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1432 on: April 27, 2017, 01:34:58 PM »
cci-reanalyzer says world air temp anomaly has drifted down from 0.31 to 0.22 degrees celsius in the last three days. Surely this is an oddity ? Even 0.31 seems so out of wack with the story so far this year. A pity I can't find some previous daily data from cci-reanalyzer or elsewhere to at least see how much of an oddity this is.


This sounds more like dropping off a precipice than a "drift". As you say, both figures are suspect, but a 3 day change of .09c world wide?


Terry

Herewith a little table. (Where do I find the older data? he whimpered)
World Anomaly degrees celsius per cci-reanalyzer. (cci-reanalyzer has today's date for air, yesterday for sea)

Date                    Air   Sea
23/04/2017      0.39
24/04/2017   0.31   0.38
25/04/2017   0.29   0.37
26/04/2017   0.22   0.35
27/04/2017   0.18   

I am glad somebody else thinks it is odd. (April arctic sea ice melt is somewhat slow, Antarctic sea ice growth is somewhat high, yet Arctic Ice cap looks a wreck).



Yuha

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1433 on: April 27, 2017, 05:14:08 PM »
Large daily fluctuations in global temps are not that unusual. See for example Nick Stokes' NCEP/NCAR temps:



https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR

Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1434 on: April 27, 2017, 05:45:39 PM »
Large daily fluctuations in global temps are not that unusual. See for example Nick Stokes' NCEP/NCAR temps:

So.....the question is....DID the anomaly "bottom out" in late December...AND...have we started a new UPTREND with a "higher low" a few days ago?  Those blue arrows show "significant lows". 

The answer, of course.....is that it is too early to tell.  And the climate FUNDAMENTALS will be the "cause" of whatever the graph will do in the future.

The "black line" in my graph....shows an area of "resistance", where previous warm anomalies have "petered out" and broken back DOWN.  So this graph "could" be showing us a "basing pattern" where the downturn is over....and we're "wandering sideways" for a bit.....with highs that get back to the level of the black line....followed by lows that MAY have started a pattern of "higher lows".
   
Is the ice area in the Arctic going to push down to new low levels allowing more heat to be absorbed into the oceans and thus creating more heat transfer to the atmosphere?  Are methane levels going to continue to rise over this short term?  The fundamentals will tell us in future months.....right now I'm just pointing out a POSSIBILITY that we may be headed back up.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1435 on: April 27, 2017, 05:47:36 PM »
Thanks Yuha,

What a super link. Playtime with a new bunch of data - forget the bosses tax return to do. And something to watch in the next few months at least.