Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Author Topic: Global Surface Air Temperatures  (Read 288490 times)

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11745
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1400 on: April 17, 2017, 04:30:11 PM »
Yes but,

2016 averaged 1.24 for YT Mar but ended up at only 0.98 so it can end up lower by up to 0.26 or perhaps more. 2016 El Nino had peaked so the 2 month delay effect was waning so so surprise that year ended up quite a lot lower. However the non linear 10 month delay effect is now running out so we can expect 2017 to also be quite a bit lower.

Still, at the beginning of 2016 Gavin Schmidt projected that by now we would be about +1.0C above pre-industrial but the 12-month GISS land and ocean GMSTA above pre-industrial through the end of March 2017 was over +1.18C.  So should not feel too comforted by these new numbers.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

jai mitchell

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1592
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1401 on: April 17, 2017, 05:42:29 PM »
I have a check-in with skeptical sciences that we will be sitting at +1.5C above pre-industrial for the 12-month average ending in May 2018.
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Buddy

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1764
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1402 on: April 18, 2017, 01:34:04 PM »
Here is a "stab" at a POSSIBLE new channel being formed.  Again....this is NOT rocket science...only a stab at what "might be forming."

The "fundamentals" certainly seem to be in place for this to have already started:

1)  increasing CO2 and methane
2)  Current and future decreases in China air pollution....leading to more warming
3)  Increase in various feedback effects.....permafrost, ice melt, wildfires, etc...

So...the fundamentals seem (yes...that is a loaded word) to support the possibility/likelihood of "warmer faster".....

Clearly....we won't know for at least a handful of years....maybe more.  But this is something that we certainly could be looking IN THE NEARTERM in the years ahead....



FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

bbr2314

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 432
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1403 on: April 19, 2017, 12:44:37 AM »
Does anyone else find it slightly disturbing that our last episode of sustained major warming culminated in 1945, the same year that saw the peak of global slaughter and the first use of nuclear weapons? I hope it isn't a precedent for what's to come in the next few years...

Side note: would it be possible to compare the above temperature graph to annual global GDP growth? I strongly suspect there is a substantial correlation.

Buddy

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1764
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1404 on: April 19, 2017, 03:31:57 PM »
Side note: would it be possible to compare the above temperature graph to annual global GDP growth? I strongly suspect there is a substantial correlation.

Yes...I would suspect there is a pretty good correlation as well.  Of course.....GOING FOREWARD, there doesn't HAVE to be.  People are JUST NOW beginning to "figure out" what a sustainable world will look like.  And it doesn't mean using up everything in the world.

We have a LONG WAYS TO GO both on the environmental front....as well as the economic and social fronts.  Some interesting challenges ahead of us in the next decade or two.  Since facts and truth NEVER GO AWAY....I suspect we will stumble TOWARDS THEM....but not at the pace we could or should.   
FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

jai mitchell

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1592
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1405 on: April 19, 2017, 07:11:35 PM »
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Buddy

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1764
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1406 on: April 19, 2017, 07:33:31 PM »
« Reply #1405 on: Today at 07:11:35 PM »

So....you're saying there's more upside? ;)
FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1600
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1407 on: April 19, 2017, 07:48:32 PM »

Bill Fothergill

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 232
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1408 on: April 19, 2017, 08:20:57 PM »
NOAA's NCEI March temperature anomaly does not make comfortable reading. Possibly the only surprise is just how much it is ahead of 3rd place.


FrankS

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 4
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1409 on: April 21, 2017, 07:35:32 PM »
I think the most interesting part of yesterday's NOAA climate call was the "horse race" temperature graph showing that isn't inconceivable that 2017 could pass 2016 as the hottest on record:


Bill Fothergill

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 232
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1410 on: April 23, 2017, 01:12:15 AM »
Berkeley Earth have just updated their BEST figures. No prizes for guessing which year has the 2nd highest March value.

2016 +1.227 deg C
2017 +1.123 deg C
2002 +0.867 deg C
2010 +0.866 deg C
2015 +0.826 deg C

2016 & 2017 are streets ahead in terms of y-t-d anomaly.


http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Global/Land_and_Ocean_complete.txt

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 339
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1411 on: April 23, 2017, 02:14:10 PM »
From CCI-Reanalyzer:-
World Temp Anomaly     0.31 degrees Celsius,
World SST anomaly        0.39 degrees Celsius.

I first noticed this yesterday. Is it unusual for global temperature anomaly to be less than global SST anomaly?

Bill Fothergill

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 232
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1412 on: April 23, 2017, 04:19:29 PM »
From CCI-Reanalyzer:-
World Temp Anomaly     0.31 degrees Celsius,
World SST anomaly        0.39 degrees Celsius.

I first noticed this yesterday. Is it unusual for global temperature anomaly to be less than global SST anomaly?

Using HadCRUT and HadSST monthly values...

From Jan 1850 to Feb 2017 (inclusive), there were 862 occasions (out of 2006 pairs of values) in which the SST value was higher.

From Jan 2000 to Feb 2017, the ratio plummets to just 11 from 206.

The last such occurrence was October 2016, and the time before that was July 2014.

wehappyfew

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1413 on: April 23, 2017, 04:34:26 PM »
Unfortunately, CCI uses different baselines for SAT and SST, making the comparison more difficult.

SAT baseline = 1979-2000
SST baseline = 1971-2000

So we would expect the anomaly to be different, due to warming during the non-overlapping baseline period of 1971 to 1978... CCI SST anomaly should be slightly higher than SAT anomaly even if the absolute temps are the same.

Physics say the oceans are usually warmer than the air. Shortwave solar energy absorbed by the dark ocean, released to the atmosphere, then to space. Heat flows from warmer to colder.

As Bill F. points out, the monthly datasets and reanalyses like NCEP consistently show absolute SST are higher than SAT.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 339
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1414 on: April 24, 2017, 01:44:51 PM »
From CCI-Reanalyzer:-
World Temp Anomaly     0.31 degrees Celsius,
World SST anomaly        0.39 degrees Celsius.

I first noticed this yesterday. Is it unusual for global temperature anomaly to be less than global SST anomaly?

Using HadCRUT and HadSST monthly values...

From Jan 1850 to Feb 2017 (inclusive), there were 862 occasions (out of 2006 pairs of values) in which the SST value was higher.

From Jan 2000 to Feb 2017, the ratio plummets to just 11 from 206.

The last such occurrence was October 2016, and the time before that was July 2014.

That difference between the anomalies is more or less the same today.

                         Observations of Anomalies         
                       sst > air   Total    Percent >air temp anomaly
Jan 1850 to Feb 2017    862          2006                43%
Jan 1850 to Jan 2000     851           1800        47%
Jan 2000 to Feb 2017   11            206                 5%

So it can be said the current observation is an anomaly. I ask simply because of an idle speculation on where the excess energy being trapped by excess CO2 is going. If the proportion swallowed into long-term storage in the oceans increases and into the atmosphere consequently decreases, one could end up with greater long-term AGW but in the shorter-term another idiotic climategate "hiatus" debate. But this change would have to persist for a good while, so perhaps flying this kite is a bit dumb.



Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1879
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1415 on: April 24, 2017, 03:10:43 PM »
Does anyone else find it slightly disturbing that our last episode of sustained major warming culminated in 1945, the same year that saw the peak of global slaughter and the first use of nuclear weapons? I hope it isn't a precedent for what's to come in the next few years...

Side note: would it be possible to compare the above temperature graph to annual global GDP growth? I strongly suspect there is a substantial correlation.

Since I first saw this spike in temperatures during WWII and the subsequent drop, I have always wondered why this happened. I doubt it is war related. Can someone with more knowledge than me explain this?

Buddy

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1764
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1416 on: April 24, 2017, 03:28:53 PM »
Since I first saw this spike in temperatures during WWII and the subsequent drop, I have always wondered why this happened. I doubt it is war related. Can someone with more knowledge than me explain this?

I don't have more knowledge....nor do I have an answer....BUT....I am afraid there may not be good enough information for that time period.  Since the ocean is where MOST of the global warming happens....AND....we don't have very good info on ocean temperatures going back that far.

As well....we only have exact readings of CO2 going back to about 1958.  So without those two pieces of the puzzle....it might be tough.

You might take a peak at La Nina's to see if there were abnormally strong La Nina's or absence of El Nino's during that time period from 1945 - 1965.  Also....sun activity would need to be looked at as well.

More questions than answers I'm afraid..... :-[


FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1009
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1417 on: April 24, 2017, 04:25:09 PM »
I know it's too simplistic an answer but 1945 was the start of a cold water PDO phase. Also the "pause"that started ~ 2000 was another cold water PDO shift. We are currently in a Warm water phase that only started a few years ago and is expected to last another ten of fifteen years. If global air temps are sensitive to the PDO phase this isn't a good indication of near term temperature trends.


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_tsplot_jan2017.png

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1690
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1418 on: April 24, 2017, 05:28:12 PM »
Is that the time of change from buckets to engine intake temperatures for SST? That has been blamed for some of the difference, I believe.

Archimid

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 529
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1419 on: April 24, 2017, 05:31:46 PM »
I know it's too simplistic an answer but 1945 was the start of a cold water PDO phase. Also the "pause"that started ~ 2000 was another cold water PDO shift. We are currently in a Warm water phase that only started a few years ago and is expected to last another ten of fifteen years. If global air temps are sensitive to the PDO phase this isn't a good indication of near term temperature trends.


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_tsplot_jan2017.png


I think the PDO is the great question here. Is it in a true positive cycle for the next 15 years? Or maybe this is just a fluke (maybe caused by removal of aerosols) and it will switch to negative soon?

If it does switch to negative we might see the Arctic recover. If it doesn't, god help us all.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bill Fothergill

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 232
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1420 on: April 25, 2017, 10:13:04 AM »
Since I first saw this spike in temperatures during WWII and the subsequent drop, I have always wondered why this happened. I doubt it is war related. Can someone with more knowledge than me explain this?

Aerosols to the lot of you.   ;)

There is a wealth of material available on this. A decent starting point is...
https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-mid-20th-century-basic.htm

(HINT: For those unfamiliar with the SkS series of Climate Change Rebuttals, it is worth going through the Basic/Intermediate/Advanced in that sequence.)

Some more perspective can be gained by looking at these two tables...
https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_history.php
https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_population.php


Gray-Wolf

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 572
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1421 on: April 25, 2017, 10:28:08 AM »
I sure wouldn't be dangling buckets over the side of the ship in an air raid!!! It does highlight how big a difference a change in methodology can have on a data series and why we go to all the trouble to marry one type of measurement with another?

It was never just engine intake though? The type , and volume of bucket was never standardised nor the time on deck before temps were taken.All these differences could lead to anomalous reading being presented?

As long as we trust that nobody is trying to fool us ( as the deniers appear keen to believe?) then we should trust their efforts to bring us data!
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

wili

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1897
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1422 on: April 25, 2017, 01:33:45 PM »
Here's a nice piece from SkS about why increased concentrations of GHG plus albedo shift make such a powerful GW combination:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/SkS_Analogy_02_Ferrari_without_gas.html
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1879
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1423 on: April 25, 2017, 03:44:15 PM »
I know it's too simplistic an answer but 1945 was the start of a cold water PDO phase. Also the "pause"that started ~ 2000 was another cold water PDO shift. We are currently in a Warm water phase that only started a few years ago and is expected to last another ten of fifteen years. If global air temps are sensitive to the PDO phase this isn't a good indication of near term temperature trends.


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_tsplot_jan2017.png


I think the PDO is the great question here. Is it in a true positive cycle for the next 15 years? Or maybe this is just a fluke (maybe caused by removal of aerosols) and it will switch to negative soon?

If it does switch to negative we might see the Arctic recover. If it doesn't, god help us all.


So lets say it is the removal of aerosols. That is even worse news as this reduction in aerosols is going to accelerate as the nations who consume the most coal (China) continue to work to improve their air quality.

Archimid

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 529
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1424 on: April 25, 2017, 04:24:03 PM »
That is even worse news as this reduction in aerosols is going to accelerate as the nations who consume the most coal (China) continue to work to improve their air quality.

That indeed makes matters worse. A possible solution to permanent global warming causes temporary global warming.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11745
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1425 on: April 26, 2017, 01:34:58 AM »
The linked reference discusses recent trends in GMSTA:

Stefan Rahmstorf, Grant Foster and Niamh Cahill (2017), "Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls", Environmental Research Letters

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6825

Abstract: "Global surface temperatures continue to rise. In most surface temperature data sets, the years 2014, 2015 and again 2016 set new global heat records since the start of regular measurements. Never before have three record years occurred in a row. We show that this recent streak of record heat does not in itself provide statistical evidence for an acceleration of global warming, nor was it preceded by a 'slowdown period' with a significantly reduced rate of warming. Rather, the data are fully consistent with a steady global warming trend since the 1970s, superimposed with random, stationary, short-term variability. All recent variations in short-term trends are well within what was to be expected, based on the observed warming trend and the observed variability from the 1970s up to the year 2000. We discuss some pitfalls of statistical analysis of global temperatures which have led to incorrect claims of an unexpected or significant warming slowdown."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

jai mitchell

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1592
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1426 on: April 26, 2017, 03:50:09 AM »
I had a short discussion with the author on this and conjectured what a +1.4C 2017 would mean to the results.  He said that, by definition, a trend must be maintained for a determined period, I believe he suggested 10 years to determine an actual trend from the statistical mean (even if a few anomalous years are greater than 2 sig!).
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1009
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1427 on: April 26, 2017, 04:32:14 AM »
I know it's too simplistic an answer but 1945 was the start of a cold water PDO phase. Also the "pause"that started ~ 2000 was another cold water PDO shift. We are currently in a Warm water phase that only started a few years ago and is expected to last another ten of fifteen years. If global air temps are sensitive to the PDO phase this isn't a good indication of near term temperature trends.


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/pdo_tsplot_jan2017.png


Archimid, I don't know if the PDO flip that started Jan. 2014 will continue or not. Generally a PDP flip lasts 15-25 years but we never really know unless we are looking in the rear view mirror. I still am unsure of what causes these long period fluctuations. The biological ramifications are quite profound however and the changes that occurred as the current warm phase started and have been dramatic . I posted recently on the Carbon Cycle page with a link to some biological problems that started with "the blob" back in 2014. This of course preceded the 2015-2016 El Niño.

https://cdfwmarine.wordpress.com/2016/03/30/perfect-storm-decimates-kelp/

If these changes are tied to the PDO and it continues for 10 to 20 more years the effects of the ocean heat is going to have consequences beyond those we are seeing with air temperatures at least here in California.

I think the PDO is the great question here. Is it in a true positive cycle for the next 15 years? Or maybe this is just a fluke (maybe caused by removal of aerosols) and it will switch to negative soon?

If it does switch to negative we might see the Arctic recover. If it doesn't, god help us all.

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1009
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1428 on: April 26, 2017, 04:41:43 AM »
Archimid, Sorry the quote in my last post somehow misleadingly attributes my words to you. I tried to fix it but I am technologically challenged.

oren

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1274
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1429 on: April 26, 2017, 05:48:18 AM »
Bruce I think you are missing one "[/quote]" at the end.
For each nested quote you should have one "[/quote]" marking where you want it to end.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 339
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1430 on: April 26, 2017, 03:39:45 PM »
cci-reanalyzer says world air temp anomaly has drifted down from 0.31 to 0.22 degrees celsius in the last three days. Surely this is an oddity ? Even 0.31 seems so out of wack with the story so far this year. A pity I can't find some previous daily data from cci-reanalyzer or elsewhere to at least see how much of an oddity this is.

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1600
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1431 on: April 26, 2017, 06:25:26 PM »
cci-reanalyzer says world air temp anomaly has drifted down from 0.31 to 0.22 degrees celsius in the last three days. Surely this is an oddity ? Even 0.31 seems so out of wack with the story so far this year. A pity I can't find some previous daily data from cci-reanalyzer or elsewhere to at least see how much of an oddity this is.


This sounds more like dropping off a precipice than a "drift". As you say, both figures are suspect, but a 3 day change of .09c world wide?


Terry

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 339
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1432 on: April 27, 2017, 01:34:58 PM »
cci-reanalyzer says world air temp anomaly has drifted down from 0.31 to 0.22 degrees celsius in the last three days. Surely this is an oddity ? Even 0.31 seems so out of wack with the story so far this year. A pity I can't find some previous daily data from cci-reanalyzer or elsewhere to at least see how much of an oddity this is.


This sounds more like dropping off a precipice than a "drift". As you say, both figures are suspect, but a 3 day change of .09c world wide?


Terry

Herewith a little table. (Where do I find the older data? he whimpered)
World Anomaly degrees celsius per cci-reanalyzer. (cci-reanalyzer has today's date for air, yesterday for sea)

Date                    Air   Sea
23/04/2017      0.39
24/04/2017   0.31   0.38
25/04/2017   0.29   0.37
26/04/2017   0.22   0.35
27/04/2017   0.18   

I am glad somebody else thinks it is odd. (April arctic sea ice melt is somewhat slow, Antarctic sea ice growth is somewhat high, yet Arctic Ice cap looks a wreck).



Yuha

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 197
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1433 on: April 27, 2017, 05:14:08 PM »
Large daily fluctuations in global temps are not that unusual. See for example Nick Stokes' NCEP/NCAR temps:



https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR

Buddy

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1764
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1434 on: April 27, 2017, 05:45:39 PM »
Large daily fluctuations in global temps are not that unusual. See for example Nick Stokes' NCEP/NCAR temps:

So.....the question is....DID the anomaly "bottom out" in late December...AND...have we started a new UPTREND with a "higher low" a few days ago?  Those blue arrows show "significant lows". 

The answer, of course.....is that it is too early to tell.  And the climate FUNDAMENTALS will be the "cause" of whatever the graph will do in the future.

The "black line" in my graph....shows an area of "resistance", where previous warm anomalies have "petered out" and broken back DOWN.  So this graph "could" be showing us a "basing pattern" where the downturn is over....and we're "wandering sideways" for a bit.....with highs that get back to the level of the black line....followed by lows that MAY have started a pattern of "higher lows".
   
Is the ice area in the Arctic going to push down to new low levels allowing more heat to be absorbed into the oceans and thus creating more heat transfer to the atmosphere?  Are methane levels going to continue to rise over this short term?  The fundamentals will tell us in future months.....right now I'm just pointing out a POSSIBILITY that we may be headed back up.

FOX (TASS) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 339
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1435 on: April 27, 2017, 05:47:36 PM »
Thanks Yuha,

What a super link. Playtime with a new bunch of data - forget the bosses tax return to do. And something to watch in the next few months at least.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11745
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1436 on: April 29, 2017, 09:13:04 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Worrisome first quarter of 2017 climate trends", and it discusses trends that indicate that significant climate change is occurring now (see also the associate image):

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2017/04/worrisome-first-quarter-of-2017-climate-trends/?utm_campaign=crowdfire
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1056
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1437 on: May 02, 2017, 06:24:40 PM »
According to Nick Stokes data, April 2017 was the "coolest" month since August 2015.

This was thanks to a "cold" second half of April. For the beginning of May it seems likely that the anomalies will bump up again to the levels we saw in the first hal of April.

In absolute numbers, April ended up being +0,34oC above the 1994-2013 average. This can be compared to August 2015 which had an anomaly of +0,308oC. All other months since then have been warmer.

Finally, I doubt if April will be second warmest behind 2016. I wouldn't be surprised if we will be third or even fourth warmest on record (NASA GISS numbers).

Yuha

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 197
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1438 on: May 02, 2017, 07:10:22 PM »
According to Nick Stokes data, April 2017 was the "coolest" month since August 2015.

This was thanks to a "cold" second half of April. For the beginning of May it seems likely that the anomalies will bump up again to the levels we saw in the first hal of April.

In absolute numbers, April ended up being +0,34oC above the 1994-2013 average. This can be compared to August 2015 which had an anomaly of +0,308oC. All other months since then have been warmer.

Before August 2015, there has been only three warmer months (since 1994):
+0.438 in Jan 2007
+0.371 in Mar 2010
+0.363 in Apr 2010

Finally, I doubt if April will be second warmest behind 2016. I wouldn't be surprised if we will be third or even fourth warmest on record (NASA GISS numbers).

Probably third behind 2016 and 2010.

Bill Fothergill

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 232
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1439 on: May 04, 2017, 01:20:55 AM »
Amidst the above talk about April, the UK Met Office and the University of East Anglia have finally managed to publish the March HadCRUT numbers. Coming in at +0.876o C, this was the 2nd warmest March and the 6th warmest of any month in the dataset.

The top 20 are...

1998/02   0.761   0.638   0.880   13
2007/01   0.834   0.692   0.981   10
2015/05   0.707   0.548   0.866   20
2015/06   0.740   0.594   0.886   14
2015/08   0.738   0.511   0.965   16
2015/09   0.792   0.599   0.986   11
2015/10   0.837   0.703   0.976   8
2015/11   0.836   0.720   0.955   9
2015/12   1.024   0.893   1.151   3
2016/01   0.906   0.753   1.061   5
2016/02   1.070   0.938   1.200   1
2016/03   1.069   0.923   1.208   2
2016/04   0.915   0.771   1.059   4
2016/06   0.731   0.585   0.877   17
2016/07   0.728   0.542   0.919   18
2016/08   0.770   0.549   0.994   12
2016/09   0.711   0.516   0.906   19
2017/01   0.740   0.577   0.906   14
2017/02   0.847   0.716   0.977   7
2017/03   0.876   0.733   1.018   6

Col 1 = Date; Col 2 = Anomaly, Cols 3 & 4 = Lower and Upper 95% Conf Range; Col 5 = Rank

One does not need to be excessively eagle-eyed to notice that 18 of these are from within the most recent 24 months.



Rather worryingly, things continue to warm up in the Nino 3.4 Region. The latest NOAA numbers are..

2016  11   25.96   26.88   -0.93
2016  12   26.08   26.80   -0.72
2017  01   26.24   26.61   -0.37
2017  02   26.63   26.80   -0.17
2017  03   27.49   27.32    0.17
2017  04   28.29   27.86    0.43

Cols 1 & 2 = Date; Col 3 = Actual Temp; Col 4 = Climatology; Col 5 = Anomaly

That's shaping up for the >= +0.5o C threshold for el Nino conditions by the end of May, although it would need to reach at least +0.75o C for the more meaningful rolling 3-month figure to reach the threshold. (N.B. Strictly speaking, the May value should need to reach +0.9o C, but, as NOAA only go down to the first decimal point when talking about the 3-month figure, that +0.75o C would suffice when rounding is taken into consideration.)

However, even if the MAM value reaches +0.5o C, the earliest that NOAA would declare a full el Nino would be if the rolling 3 month value stayed above threshold until the JAS period, i.e. five consecutive rolling 3-month figures.



Wipneus

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3255
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1440 on: May 04, 2017, 06:53:15 PM »
HadCrut annual comes with an estimated 2017 value, with a confidence range.

Top three stuff, new record possible.

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1056
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1441 on: May 05, 2017, 06:03:24 PM »
According to Copernicus's analysis, april 2017 was the second warmest April month on record being 0,18oC cooler compared to the record warm April 2016. Remarkable big anomalies was located around west Antarctica where sea ice extent remains very low. Courtesy: ECMWF, Copernicus Climate Change Service

https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/april-2017


Bill Fothergill

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 232
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1442 on: May 06, 2017, 01:37:58 AM »
HadCrut annual comes with an estimated 2017 value, with a confidence range.

Top three stuff, new record possible.

Interesting that the very provisional "predicted" year-end value for HadCRUT is currently showing as the 4th consecutive record year...

2014 +0.575o C
2015 +0.760o C
2016 +0.773o C
2017 +0.820o C

As each of the three monthly anomaly values so far this year (+0.740o C ; +0.847o C ; +0.876o C ) was considerably cooler than the equivalent value(s) from 2016 (+0.906o C ; +1.070o C ; +1.069o C ), for this "projection/prediction" to be realised, the remainder of the year could get interesting.

To equal the 2016 temperature anomaly, the remaining 9 months of the year would need to average about 0.065o C warmer than that clocked up for April - December 2016 (which was ~ +0.694o C).

To get to the "predicted" value, the April - December average for this year would need to be about 0.125o C warmer than the equivalent from last year.

I would expect that the teams from the Met Office and the CRU are looking at the ENSO figures with some interest. NOAA figures put the July - December 2016 average anomaly in the 3.4 region at -0.71o C, but the Mar-April average this year is +0.3o C, and there currently seems to be about a 50% chance that an el Nino could develop later this year. (Although one would certainly expect some lag in the relationship.)

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11745
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1443 on: May 09, 2017, 07:40:05 PM »
The linked reference uses ESLD assumptions in a comparison of GMSTA projections with both positive & negative IPO phases (see attached image):

Benjamin J. Henley & Andrew D. King (8 May 2017), "Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073480 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL073480/abstract;jsessionid=A9491F6A62D5D76C7AEAA37F24A76C28.f02t02

Abstract: "Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, temperature projections are centered on a breaching of the 1.5°C target, relative to 1850–1900, before 2029. The phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) will regulate the rate at which mean temperature approaches the 1.5°C level. A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative decadal phase, the target will be reached around 5 years later, in 2031. Given the temporary slowdown in global warming between 2000 and 2014, and recent initialized decadal predictions suggestive of a turnaround in the IPO, a sustained period of rapid temperature rise might be underway. In that case, the world will reach the 1.5°C level of warming several years sooner than if the negative IPO phase persists."


Also, see the following linked associated article entitled: "Pacific Ocean shift could see 1.5C limit breached within a decade":

https://www.carbonbrief.org/pacific-ocean-shift-could-see-1point5-limit-breached-within-decade
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

BornFromTheVoid

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 949
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1444 on: May 15, 2017, 05:00:35 PM »
Second warmest April on record according to the JMA



1st. 2016(+0.54°C)
2nd. 2017(+0.38°C)
3rd. 2014,1998(+0.31°C)
5th. 2015(+0.30°C)

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/apr_wld.html

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1056
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1445 on: May 15, 2017, 06:01:23 PM »
NASA GISS just came in with an April anomaly at +0,88oC above the 1951-1980 average meaning that April 2017 was the second warmest behind 2016. The margin to April 2010 was just 0,01oC.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11745
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1446 on: May 15, 2017, 07:50:02 PM »
NASA GISS just came in with an April anomaly at +0,88oC above the 1951-1980 average meaning that April 2017 was the second warmest behind 2016. The margin to April 2010 was just 0,01oC.

If one assumes a 0.256C adjustment factor, this indicates that the 12-month running average GISS LOTI is +1.17C above pre-industrial.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1056
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1447 on: May 15, 2017, 10:19:14 PM »
Indeed, and I don't think we should be surprised to see borderline El Niño conditions by late fall followed by strong WWB in early 2018 accompaied by a strong El Niño. That will almost certainly yield a scenario where 2018 is warmer than 2017 and where either 2018 or 2019 will be warmer than 2016. PDO continues to be positive and so far nothing is hinting about a shift to the negative phase.

Bill Fothergill

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 232
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1448 on: May 16, 2017, 12:20:06 AM »
... I don't think we should be surprised to see borderline El Niño conditions by late fall ...

As mentioned above, the April 2017 value was just 0.01o C below the equivalent value from 2010. However, the Nino3.4 Region values for the two years tell a completely different story.

Using NOAA's rolling 3-month threshold of +0.5o C, el Nino conditions held from JJA 2009 through to MAM 2010. On the other hand, after spending 8 months in negative territory (including a weak la Nina from JAS 2016 till NDJ) the 2017 FMA figure has just crept into positive territory.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml


It doesn't bode well.

rboyd

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 355
    • View Profile
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1449 on: May 16, 2017, 12:34:02 AM »
With a serious melt-out in the Arctic this summer, the Arctic Fall/Winter will be significantly warmer as some of the added energy is exchanged with the atmosphere. That plus a building El Nino will make for a spike in temperatures this winter coming.

Any linkage seen in the Antarctic between the much lower levels of sea ice and Antarctic Fall temperatures?