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Author Topic: Global Surface Air Temperatures  (Read 302460 times)

Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1450 on: May 16, 2017, 02:36:06 PM »
According to Copernicus's analysis, april 2017 was the second warmest April month on record being 0,18oC cooler compared to the record warm April 2016. Remarkable big anomalies was located around west Antarctica where sea ice extent remains very low. Courtesy: ECMWF, Copernicus Climate Change Service

https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/april-2017



I think these monthly anomalies are very enlightening as they eliminate the daily fluctuations and begin to reveal the climactic shifts that are occurring. Monthly provides more insight than annually as these shifts in climate have seasonal attributes. It would be interesting to compare these over time, say the last decade. What I see in April is the development of a "cold pole" over Greenland and the surrounding ocean and land surfaces. This seems reasonable as the ice cap on Greenland is the last refuge for persistent ice and the effects it has on temperatures and atmospheric circulation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1451 on: May 23, 2017, 08:10:54 PM »
Kees van der Leun:  Remember the time that "global warming stopped in 1998"?  Those were the days. April 2017 second warmest on record....
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1452 on: May 26, 2017, 07:33:53 PM »
With a couple days left of May it more and more looks like May will be, relatively speaking, warmer than April. I don't believe we will beat May 2016 (+0,93oC above the 1951-1980 average) but we should have a decent chance to get a second place. Currently, May 2014 holds the second place being +0,86oC above the norm. However, we should remember that the value for May 2014 was a result of the huge WWB earlier that year.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1453 on: May 27, 2017, 09:33:19 AM »
HadCrut4 for April 2017 is released: +0.740 global: same as January and down -0.135 from March.

The forecast for 2017 annual is still record high, with a top-three rank getting a bit more likely.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1454 on: June 02, 2017, 10:12:32 PM »
According to Nick Stokes values, May 2017 was exactly +0,40oC above the 1994-2013 average. This can be compared to the +0,475oC anomaly from the record warm May 2016 and the +0,315oC anomaly from May 2014 which, according to NASA number currently is the second warmest May behind 2016.

From all this it seems quite likely to believe that NASA GISS will come in with an anomaly somewhere in the range 0,84-0,90oC above the 1951-1980 average most likely giving a second place behind 2016 but with a minor chance to a third place.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1455 on: June 03, 2017, 12:51:36 AM »
According to Nick Stokes values, May 2017 was exactly +0,40oC above the 1994-2013 average. This can be compared to the +0,475oC anomaly from the record warm May 2016 and the +0,315oC anomaly from May 2014 which, according to NASA number currently is the second warmest May behind 2016.

From all this it seems quite likely to believe that NASA GISS will come in with an anomaly somewhere in the range 0,84-0,90oC above the 1951-1980 average most likely giving a second place behind 2016 but with a minor chance to a third place.

Here is the associated image from Nick Stokes:
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1456 on: June 03, 2017, 06:38:18 PM »
just found this historic graph looking at changepoints.

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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1457 on: June 07, 2017, 07:46:13 AM »
Second warmest May behind 2016 according to Copernicus, just 0,03o behind 2016. Read more at:https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/may-2017

Temp anomalies relative 1981-2010 for the globe and Europe:



Credit: ECMWF, Copernicus Climate Change Service

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1458 on: June 16, 2017, 04:53:40 PM »
Monthly Global Surface Air Temperatures for the last 3 years

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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1459 on: June 20, 2017, 03:30:23 PM »
The linked Scribbler article confirms that May 2017 was the second hottest May on record and the seasonal trend (see image) for the first five months of this year have been disturbingly similar to an El Nino year:

"World Climate Stays in Uncharted Territory as May of 2017 Hits Second Hottest on Record"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/06/19/world-climate-stays-in-uncharted-territory-as-may-of-2017-hits-second-hottest-on-record/
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Wipneus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1460 on: June 27, 2017, 08:34:08 AM »
HadCrut4 for May 2017 released, .655 oC anomaly, down -0.084 from April, is third highest May behind 2015 and 2016.

The annual graph shows the statistical prediction (by HadCrut) for 2017. The most likely outcome is still top-three, with the possibility for a record slightly lowered (compared with last month).

Jim Hunt

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1461 on: June 30, 2017, 02:51:07 PM »
A new paper published in the Journal of Climate reveals that the lower part of the Earth’s atmosphere has warmed much faster since 1979 than scientists relying on satellite data had previously thought.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/major-correction-to-satellite-data-shows-140-faster-warming-since-1998

Researchers from Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), based in California, have released a substantially revised version of their lower tropospheric temperature record.

After correcting for problems caused by the decaying orbit of satellites, as well as other factors, they have produced a new record showing 36% faster warming since 1979 and nearly 140% faster (e.g. 2.4 times faster) warming since 1998. This is in comparison to the previous version 3 of the lower tropospheric temperature (TLT) data published in 2009.

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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1462 on: June 30, 2017, 05:38:48 PM »
Blistering cold June over Antarctica will temper the GSTA this month. Read at:

https://twitter.com/khaustein/status/880809156034342914


rboyd

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1463 on: June 30, 2017, 10:06:46 PM »
The tweets mention that this is the 4th June in a row of such negative variances. As its the middle of winter there, could there be an issue with the heat exchange from the oceans? Perhaps the freshening of the surface waters due to ice melt as proposed by Hansen. The heat will still be there in the ocean, just not exchanged with the atmosphere. Perhaps to be later exchanged with the Antarctic ice shelves at depth.

Exactly the kind of complexity that the deniers use. The energy imbalance is still there, just more is being trapped in the oceans (which are warming faster than previously predicted) than in the atmosphere.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1464 on: July 02, 2017, 07:23:47 PM »
Per Nick Stokes the NCEP-NCAR GMSTA for June 2017 was 0.241C; which represents a drop from recent trends (see the first associated image).  The second image issued today by Karsten Haustein illustrates that the June drop in GMSTA (relative to recent trends) can be associated with abnormally cold temperatures in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, while conditions in the Northern Hemisphere are closer to the recent trend line.


Edit: GMSTA = Global Mean Surface Temperature Anom
« Last Edit: July 21, 2017, 06:32:12 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1465 on: July 07, 2017, 05:23:02 PM »
It is just a matter of time before Arctic Amplification begins to meaningfully accelerate (including due to coming albedo changes):

"The Arctic Has Been Crazy Warm All Year. This Is What It Means for Sea Ice"

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-crazy-warm-sea-ice-21599

Extract: "The vagaries of the weather and ocean currents will play a major role in determining where this year’s Arctic sea ice minimum ranks. But the steady drumbeat of climate change ensures that it will likely be among the lowest on record."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1466 on: July 19, 2017, 04:52:54 PM »
For those paying attention the following is old new, but just for the record I provide a link to the article entitled: "At Midway Point, 2017 Is 2nd-Hottest Year on Record"

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/midway-point-2017-2nd-hottest-year-21625

Extract: "At the halfway point of the year, 2017 remains the second-hottest year to date — a surprise given the demise of the El Niño that helped boost temperatures to record levels last year.
The continued near-record warmth is a marker of just how much global temperatures have risen thanks to the greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere from fossil fuel use.

Every month of the year so far, including June, has ranked in the top three hottest for that month. Overall, the first six months of the year were 1.64°F (0.91°C) above the 20th century average of 56.3°F (13.5°C), according to NOAA. They were 0.29°F (0.16°C) behind the same period in 2016, which turned out to be hottest year on record, but ahead of 2015 by 0.09°F (0.05°C).

According to NASA, the first six months were 1.64°F above the 1951-1980 average."
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crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1467 on: July 19, 2017, 05:47:17 PM »
GISS anomaly for June: 69 only 4th warmest after

2016 79
2015 78
1998 78

and only just ahead of a slew of other years:
2005 68
2014 66
2009 66
2013 65
2010 64
2006 64

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1468 on: July 19, 2017, 06:42:20 PM »
Gavin Schmidt:  Global average monthly temperature distributions since the 19th Century from GISTEMP #joyplot
https://twitter.com/climateofgavin/status/887522165196820480

GIF at the link.

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Ned W

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1469 on: July 19, 2017, 07:11:36 PM »
GISS anomaly for June: 69 only 4th warmest ...

Yes, that seems to be a minor error in the article ASLR quotes above.

2017 did start out very warm, but cooled a lot after March.  June was back to a temperature similar to those before the 2015 El Nino spike, and July has been similarly cool so far (I follow Nick Stokes's daily version of NCAR reanalysis temperatures here). 

In GISTEMP, May and June were almost identical to the same months from 2014.  If 2017 continues to track 2014 for the rest of the year, it would end up in third place, behind 2016 and 2015. If it warms up again, second place is more likely.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1470 on: July 19, 2017, 07:16:14 PM »
Yes, that seems to be a minor error in the article ASLR quotes above.

You need to be more specific about what minor error you are referring to as your post does not make this clear (to me at least).
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1471 on: July 19, 2017, 07:21:12 PM »
If 2017 continues to track 2014 for the rest of the year, it would end up in third place, behind 2016 and 2015. If it warms up again, second place is more likely.

If you like Gavin's projections then per the attached tweet he give 2017 a 57% chance of GISTEMP LOTI finishing in 2nd place.
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Ned W

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1472 on: July 19, 2017, 07:33:13 PM »
Yes, that seems to be a minor error in the article ASLR quotes above.

You need to be more specific about what minor error you are referring to as your post does not make this clear (to me at least).
The article you quoted says "Every month of the year so far, including June, has ranked in the top three hottest for that month."

As crandles points out, June was actually fourth hottest, after 2016, 2015, and 1998.

Ned W

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1473 on: July 19, 2017, 07:36:53 PM »
That's a nice graphic in Gavin's tweet (showing the relationship between the annual mean vs Jan-June mean). 

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1474 on: July 19, 2017, 07:41:51 PM »
Yes, that seems to be a minor error in the article ASLR quotes above.

You need to be more specific about what minor error you are referring to as your post does not make this clear (to me at least).
The article you quoted says "Every month of the year so far, including June, has ranked in the top three hottest for that month."

As crandles points out, June was actually fourth hottest, after 2016, 2015, and 1998.

I note that the article's statement is referring to NOAA values while crandles is referring to NASA values (GISS).
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Ned W

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1475 on: July 19, 2017, 07:58:01 PM »
Ah, right -- I missed that, due to the "according to NASA" in the last line of your excerpt.  Sorry, carry on.

I generally prefer to follow GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth, and the Cowtan & Way version of HADCRUT, since they actually cover the entire globe.  NOAA typically omits most of the Arctic and almost all of the Antarctic. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1476 on: July 19, 2017, 09:14:07 PM »
Joe Romm:

2017 is so unexpectedly warm it is freaking out climate scientists
“Extremely remarkable” 2017 heads toward record for hottest year without an El Niño episode.
https://thinkprogress.org/no-el-nino-still-hot-39162a5cc5bc
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1477 on: July 19, 2017, 11:50:15 PM »
I would be so surprised if we get another record hot year. My guess is that the 2016 record might not be broken for years or even decades if the Arctic holds. What will not happen is a reversion to mean temperatures. Temperatures will hover at late 00's, early 10's temperatures. I think we should maybe be putting that message out now to weaken the "No warming since 2016" bs that is soon going to start.

I really hope I'm not wrong about that.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1478 on: July 20, 2017, 12:15:20 AM »
I would be so surprised if we get another record hot year.

Gavin typically uses a 67% confidence bar on his plots, so if that is the case for his image in Reply# 1471, this would mean that his is projecting something over a 10% chance that 2017 may be warmer than 2016
« Last Edit: July 20, 2017, 04:22:49 PM by AbruptSLR »
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rboyd

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1479 on: July 20, 2017, 06:58:53 AM »
My guess is that the 2016 record might not be broken for years or even decades if the Arctic holds.


With CO2e going up at 4ppm per year and China working hard to reduce its coal-derived aerosols, it may not be that long - even without an ice free Arctic or a big El Nino. 1.5oC by 2027 in the paper below with RCP 2.6, not good news for the permafrost.

Responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5 °C warming

"The corresponding time in 17 models when the global surface temperature rises by 1.5 °C relative to the pre-industrial level under each RCP are shown in Table 2. The results of the MME showed that the global average surface temperature will reach the threshold of 1.5 °C in 2027, 2026, and 2023 in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively"

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927817300680
« Last Edit: July 20, 2017, 07:14:43 AM by rboyd »

Herfried

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1480 on: July 20, 2017, 07:42:39 AM »
It is quite a surprise that 2017 - a year after a weak La Nina races even close to the big El Nino record year. This is a major change compared to previous events, e.g. 1997/8.

If indeed the level now is the new normal, the next weak Rl Nino will do the record breaking job.

And like written... Carbondioxide is rising, Aerosols are falling, things may jump swift.

Ned W

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1481 on: July 20, 2017, 02:10:43 PM »
I would be so surprised if we get another record hot year.


Gavin typically uses a 67% confidence bar on his plots, so if that is the case for his image in Reply# 1471, this would mean that his is projection something over a 10% chance that 2017 may be warmer than 206


I replicated Gavin's calculation, and he appears to be using a 95% CI for the 2017 prediction. I superimposed my version on top of Gavin's, using black circles (and black error bars for 2017):



That gives the following:
99.5% chance that 2017 will exceed 2014 (third place or higher)
59.2% chance that 2017 will exceed 2015 (second place or higher)
1.8% chance that 2017 will exceed 2016 (first place)

or:
40.3% chance of third place
57.4% chance of second place
1.8% chance of first place

But there is a (slightly) better way.  Gavin's calculations predict the annual mean based solely on the Jan-June mean.  But, logically, one might expect that along with the Jan-June mean, the Jan-June trend matters (if temps are rising in the first half of the year the annual mean will likely be higher; if they are falling, it will likely be lower).

Sure enough, both the Jan-June mean and trend are highly significant as predictors, so why not use them both?  That gives a model with a slightly lower predicted value for 2017 (1.09, instead of 1.11, relative to Gavin's 1880-1899 baseline) and a smaller standard error (0.044 instead of 0.051).  That, in turn, gives the following outcomes for probability:

57.9% chance of third place
41.4% chance of second place
0.2% chance of first place

Clearly this is broadly similar to the first version, but it's a somewhat better fit to the observations.

Ned W

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1482 on: July 20, 2017, 02:45:42 PM »
I would be so surprised if we get another record hot year. My guess is that the 2016 record might not be broken for years or even decades if the Arctic holds.


By coincidence, I've looked a bit at that question.  Here is GISTEMP, 1970-present, and extrapolated out to the next decade:



Note that those are the "raw" GISTEMP values (i.e., with the 1951-1980 baseline, not the 1880-1899 baseline from Gavin's tweet above).  Shift them all upward by 0.223 to put them on the 1880-1899 baseline.  Also note that the 2017 value is predicted using the methods described in the post above, but it doesn't really affect the outcome at all.

In 2027 the expected value of GISTEMP (without ENSO "noise" etc.) slightly exceeds 2016. 

Next, here are the (non-cumulative) probabilities of exceeding 2016 in any given year:



Finally, here are the cumulative probabilities of exceeding 2016 by a given year (i.e., the probability shown for 2020 is the probability of exceeding 2016 in 2017, 2018, 2019, and/or 2020):



The cumulative probability of exceeding 2016's temperature by each year is:

2018: 6%
2019: 14%
2020: 24%
2021: 37%
2022: 50%
2023: 64%
2024: 77%
2025: 86%
2026: 93%
2027: 97%

So there is a 50-50 chance we'll beat 2016 in the next 5 years, and a 97% chance in the next decade.

« Last Edit: July 20, 2017, 03:37:44 PM by Ned W »

Archimid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1483 on: July 20, 2017, 03:59:09 PM »
Thank you Ned W.
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DoomInTheUK

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1484 on: July 20, 2017, 04:38:02 PM »
..... The results of the MME showed that the global average surface temperature will reach the threshold of 1.5 °C in 2027, 2026, and 2023 in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively"


It's a good job we've been following RCP 8.5+ then.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1485 on: July 21, 2017, 04:19:47 PM »
The linked article discusses how different agencies have adjusted GMSTA measurements thru the past ~ century.

Title: "Explainer: How data adjustments affect global temperature records"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-data-adjustments-affect-global-temperature-records

Edit: GMSTA = Global Mean Surface Temperature Anom
« Last Edit: July 21, 2017, 06:29:36 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1486 on: July 21, 2017, 05:21:39 PM »
While it is nice that the Southern Hemisphere (driven by low Antarctica and Southern Ocean surface temperatures) was relatively cool in June, I note that most of us live in the Northern Hemisphere, which per the attached Karsten Haustein plot issued today, was relatively warm in June and is likely to be unusually warm by the end of July 2017:

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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