Global Surface Air Temperatures

[ritter]

A record high +0.75°C.

Where's that "pause" I keep hearing about? 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yet another record warm monthly anomaly for the oceans

For the ocean, the August global sea surface temperature was 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.4°F). This record high departure from average not only beats the previous August record set in 2005 by 0.08°C (0.14°F), but also beats the previous all-time record set just two months ago in June 2014 by 0.03°C (0.05°F).

Where's that "pause" I keep hearing about? 

Probably hiding with the claim that cooling will commence once the PDO turns -ve...

[viddaloo]

A record high +0.75°C.

Where's that "pause" I keep hearing about? 

Good question! First 8 months of the year also sport a record high mean that would make 2014 the warmest on Earth's surface in the history of recordkeeping. Same thing for Oslo and possibly Norway as a whole. (If relational "pauses" were this hot, I'd go for a "pause" any day!)

[bassman]

Some calculations to consider:

NOAA now has a year to data temp anomaly of .68 beating .66 for 2010 and .65 for 2005.
JMA now has a year to date temp anomaly of .24 beating .22 of 1998 and .20 of 2013! (I averaged the monthly data myself for 2014)

I would say there is a 70-90% chance that both data sets set a record for 2014 even without an El Nino. 

[Yuha]

I would say there is a 70-90% chance that both data sets set a record for 2014 even without an El Nino. 

NCDC has an interesting page about that:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/8/supplemental/page-1

including this graph:

[Lord M Vader]

Anyone here who knows how big the anomalies for September 1-21 have been in rough terms? I've been looking at CC_Reanalyzis forecasting maps and my perception is that September anomaly so far average somewhere around +0,8C from the 1979-2000 mean..

September 2005 and 2013 holds the record with a anomaly of +0,74C according to NASA table data. However, these numbers are not comparible as NASAs mean values refers to the 1951-1980 period.

//LMV

[viddaloo]

The official WMO normal period for surface temperatures is 1961-1990 according to eg Wikipedia, but so far I've only seen one country using that consistently; Norway. America seems to be following the philosophy that "standards are good, the more, the better"!

[Lord M Vader]

September 2014 warmest on record? I've quite consistently looked at the 1-day forecasted anomalies from CC_Reanalyzer this month. From those forecasted values I took a mean of land and ocean temps. These values have through the whole month virtually been in the range 0,70-0,90C from the 1979-2000 mean. According to NASAs tabulated data the three warmest septembers are 2013 & 2005 (both +0,74C anomaly from 1951-1980 mean) and 2012 (+0,68C).

While CC_Reanalyzers values can't be fully compared to NASAs I think there is a really decent chance that September 2014 ended up as being one of the three warmest on record.. This would mean that we remains on track for 2014 to be the warmest year on record.

Anyone who have more and better data to make a more accurate estimation for September?

//LMV

[TheWeatherMan]

Hi LMV,

Have you ever used the Weatherbell site? I've done a quick analysis on how the CFSv2 (on weatherbell) correlates to GISS global temperatures since late 2010.  The R^2 value was a quite high 0.93. Since the baseline is different, just add 0.55C to what is shown on weatherbell and that is a rough approximation of what GISS comes in as.  Again, it's not perfect since this is reanalysis/model data and not direct measurement.  Most of the time it lands within 0.05C of the estimate.  Given those calculations, September very well may come in as warmest on record.  We are at 0.195C on Weatherbell, which would mean a 0.75C on GISS.

http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_022014.png

http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cdas_v2_hemisphere_2014.png

[bassman]

s@&$t just got real,  NASA LOTI at .77 for September.  Hottest sept on record.  This beats 2005 at .73.  Check Robert Scribblers blog for a great post on it.

[Gray-Wolf]

His last para is worth mulling over:

"Overall, three more record or near record hot months would put 2014 in serious contention for hottest year on record. A rather odd result considering we still see no El Nino and almost every recent hottest year has been spurred on by this powerful atmospheric variability driver. A record hot year in 2014 with no El Nino could well be an indication that the human forcing is beginning to over-ride natural variability and that the ENSO signal, though still very powerful, is becoming more and more muted by an increasingly substantial human heat forcing."

From: http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/

[deep octopus]

A read of 0.78 on the GISS maps. Only the Ural region and pockets of the Atlantic, Southern, and Pacific Oceans were below the baseline.

[bassman]

Gray-Wolf,  Robert nails it.  I have always argued that even if we stay in a neg phase PDO or just plain similar ocean/atmospheric conditions as 2011, GHG forcing will simply overwhelm and neutral years will begin setting all time records.  It's hard to say how much the Kelvins waves have contributed this year but it seems that 2014 is going to take us to a new record for atleast NOAA and JMA.   2015 will likely crush 2014 if we get the slow burn El Niño that's forecasted.  See below.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think that mother N. does here best to keep things stable when She encounters a strong short term forcing but this is only a quick fix and unravels should the forcing continues to be persistent?

I believe that we have seen her give it Her best shot to 'calm' the warming we saw through the 80's/90's but the forcing has not only remained but grown stronger. As such She will now allow climate to undergo a step change to the next high 'stable' phase ( and the cycle will repeat?).

We are told that the enhanced trades ( driven by the walker cell responding to imbalance between tropical Atlantic and Pacific) are a good part of the 'hiatus' but that those oceans are approaching parity and , as such, we ought expect the trades to settle back to more recognisable levels? This , in its turn, will lead to surface ocean heat warming our atmosphere ( rather than being drawn down into the ocean) leading to elevated global temps.

To me that sounds like the IPO flipping positive to its 'warm surface ocean' phase. Should PDO also be faltering in its -ve phase ( lots of positive values so far this year) then 2 of the 'cold drivers' will have flipped back into augmenting AGW warming.

With the heat that has been pushed down into the ocean also able to make its reappearance we may well be in for a run of very warm months/years even without El Nino pumping up the values.

How would folk view a record warm year without a Nino pushing up the temp? Would that be enough to have sceptics questioning the mechanism behind such an event?

It is what to expect should such events occur that most troubles me. with polar temps already in record territory what hope for arctic sea ice ( and its impact on global temps?) , what of the Brazilian rain forests (already damaged by at least 2 '1 in a hundred year' droughts over the past 15 years?), what of the permafrost and its methane cargo? What of extreme weather events?

The paid misleaders have cost us ( I believe) our last, best, chance of mitigating the nastier impacts of warming by messing with folk through this period of slowed atmospheric warming when , in reality, they knew what lay behind them. What do you do with people like that???

[Shared Humanity]

What do you do with people like that???

Tumbrels?   

[bassman]

JMA is the warmest on record for September.  I think it's safe to say that JMA will have 2014 as the warmest on record. I haven't run the numbers yet but it was already in first place for the year. Before Sept.

1st. 2014(+0.34°C), 2nd. 2013(+0.26°C), 3rd. 2012(+0.25°C), 4th. 2009,2005(+0.22°C)

[deep octopus]

Bassman, it is certainly looking that way...

On JMA, warmest MAM and JJA periods; 5th warmest January; warmest September, by far. Current January-September average anomaly is +0.25 C (over 1981-2010). If that pattern continues, it would beat out 1998 (JMA's record year) pretty significantly.

Less clear is where this will end up on other metrics, but securing either 2nd or 1st warmest in most indices is the picture that's emerging. And either way, the trajectory is up.

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis model through October 12th is showing October 2014 to be the 3rd warmest so far (behind 2012 and 2005). It's still quite early in the month, but that would roughly translate to another +0.70 C figure on NASA GISS if this continues. November will be very interesting to watch...

[Ned W]

Updated now with two additional months of GISTEMP data.  The projected annual mean is almost unchanged (0.6664, up trivially from 0.6662) but the confidence intervals are narrowing. 

There is still something like a 57% chance that 2014 will set a new annual record in GISTEMP.  It is very likely to be in the top 3.

Thanks Ned, appreciate your perspective. Interesting analysis, and I agree with your math that we need to see 0.69 C figures for the rest of the year. Though I would suggest that this isn't an unlikely outcome, and here's why.

[...lots of good commentary snipped...]

Thanks for that.  You're quite right -- there is a seasonal pattern in the anomaly data that is non-stationary over time.   If one ignores that (as I did above) it suggests a 33% chance that 2014 will set a new record in GISTEMP.  But taking it into account, there appears to be a 57% chance of a record this year (and an 87% chance that 2014 will be in the top 3).

I will explain how I calculated that, in case anyone is as absurdly obsessive about trivia as I am:

(1) I downloaded the GISTEMP land + ocean data from NASA.
(2) For each year, I calculated the year-to-date (YTD) average (i.e., Jan through July)
(3) For each year, I calculated the difference between the YTD and the full-year value
(4) I used a LOWESS model with a 30-year timescale to detrend the differences from (3)
(5) Using the detrended differences, I modeled a probability distribution for 2014

The expected value for GISTEMP 2014 annual is 0.666, slightly higher than the previous record of 0.60 (from 2010).

Here's a plot showing each year's difference between the YTD (Jan-July) mean and the final, 12-month mean.  Red line is the LOWESS model with 30-year timescale:


Here are the detrended differences (basically, blue line minus red line in the above), with a 95% confidence interval:


Here are the resulting hindcast "predictions" for 1880-2014, based on each year's first seven months, compared to the actual annual data (2014 is missing from the latter, obviously):


This is the same as the previous figure, but enlarging the 1980-2014 period:


Finally, here is the probability distribution for 2014's annual mean, compared to recent years:


So ... I agree with deep octopus that 2014 is likely to set a new record for GISTEMP, even based solely on the data through July, ignoring the current spike in SSTs.

[deep octopus]

Bad news all around, if not surprising given the steady march of data. NOAA confirms September 2014 as the warmest in its record. Warmest ocean temperatures on record, for September and for any month. In addition the January-September period was tied for the warmest on record for the combined land-ocean index.

Emphasis mine, but the same points are elaborated:

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for September 2014 was the highest on record for September, at 0.72°C (1.30°F) above the 20th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F).

The global land surface temperature was 0.89°C (1.60°F) above the 20th century average of 12.0°C (53.6°F), tying with 2013 as the sixth warmest September on record. For the ocean, the September global sea surface temperature was 0.66°C (1.19°F) above the 20th century average of 16.2°C (61.1°F), the highest on record for September and also the highest on record for any month.

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–September period (year-to-date) was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.5°F), tying with 1998 and 2010 as the warmest such period on record.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/9

As it stands, 2014 is in the running to be the warmest year on record, if it maintains this performance for the remainder of the year. The warmest year in NOAA's record, 2010, finished with a +0.66 C anomaly over 1901-2000. This year is currently at +0.68 C over 1901-2000. See the attached for the year-to-date rankings.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another interesting part of the report:

The past 12 months—October 2013–September 2014—was the warmest 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average. This breaks the previous record of +0.68°C (+1.22°F) set for the periods September 1998–August 1998, August 2009–July 2010; and September 2013–August 2014.

[Laurent]

Climate deniers lost for words: 2014 set for hottest year on record
http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2612541/climate_deniers_lost_for_words_2014_set_for_hottest_year_on_record.html

[deep octopus]

Per NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, it has been a very aggressive upward march in global temperatures since late summer. Although some season variation may be responsible for keeping anomalies elevated as of recent, this has already been accounted for with months like August and September registering as the hottest on record for their respective months. In the attachment, I've finally compiled the daily NCEP/NCAR model data since January 1st of this year. Noteworthy is that October 25th, the last available day, has recorded the warmest day of the year compared with the baseline.

We should probably expect October 2014 to be among the three warmest Octobers on record at this point. This is going to have serious implications on where 2014 stands out in history, as it will further increase the chances of 2014 becoming the hottest year on record. Much of the heat this month has been distributed into the North Pacific, North Atlantic, the Arctic, North America, South America, Australia, south Asia, and western Europe. This is turning out to be a similar pattern as we saw in September.

[Lord M Vader]

Deep Octopus: how did the daily anomalies look like for October 2005 (warmest October according to NASA) and 2003/2012 (both second warmest due to NASA)?

Would be very interesting to compare the cases!

Regards, LMV

[deep octopus]

LMV,

I can try to plot the daily for other years, particularly ones holding record months, a little later (takes a fair amount of time), but the monthly averages for 2003 and 2005 were both less than the current month-to-date average for 2014, while 2014 was less than 2012. Regardless, we have a good sense of where things will generally sit at the end of this.

So on NASA, 2003 was +0.72, 2005 was +0.76, and 2012 was +0.72. It's reasonable that October 2014 could be the hottest on NASA's record, since it's racing ahead of 2005 and NCEP/NCAR. This late, I think we could probably expect it to print somewhere between 0.70 and 0.80 C on NASA's record, which I don't think too ballsy. Getting north of 0.80 C has pretty much been on the frontier of the worst of temperature records for any month so far, so we'd be talking a rather aggressive number, but we'll have to familiarize ourselves with them as they threaten to be more common in years ahead... We're finding out just how dangerous each incremental rise in temperatures actually is.

[Steven]

Kevin Cowtan and Robert Way have so far been dutifully updating the HadCRUT4 data with their kriging infills. They have data up to June 2014's HadCRUT4 interpolation.

(Monthly) http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/had4_krig_v2_0_0.txt

and

(Annually) http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/had4_krig_annual_v2_0_0.txt

via

http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/series.html
.....

Robert Way posted the following on twitter:

"Coverage bias works both ways - most datasets will show 2014 as warmest globally except ours (Cowtan and Way, 2014)"

[deep octopus]

Thanks for the update Steven. Always good to remember that there is some variability to these different data sets, that what is "underrepresented" can be shown to either boost or soften global temperatures. Which is a good reason why the trends are what matter most. Rankings are more fragile, in this way; the trends are however very robust.

Seems as though 2014 would most likely top as the warmest on record in the JMA, NOAA, and MetOffice HadCRTU4 data sets. NASA has 2014 close with 2010.

I presume the Berkeley Earth data will be ultimately updated for 2014's months as well, eventually: http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Global/Land_and_Ocean_complete.txt

[BornFromTheVoid]

Joint warmest October (with 2012 at +0.37C) on record according to UAH, and 3rd warmest year to date.

[Michael Hauber]

On Uah what is curious to me is that the temperature recovery from the 2010 La Nina seems to be unusually muted.  On the 13 month moving average we've gone up by about 0.15 degrees from the bottom.  More typically temps have gone up by about 0.3 degrees or more after a decent La Nina (eg 88, 99 or 07).  So is there plenty more warming to come?  Or is this going to be an unusually low recovery.  We did have an almost nino in 2012, and its now 2 years on so I would think we should have seen pretty much the full recovery by now.  The other recoveries did end in El Ninos, but neutral years tend to have temperatures closer to el nino than la nina - eg early 02 is when the temperature first neared its approximate peak in the 02-06 period, but it wasn't until 02/03 that we saw an actual el nino and temperatures didn't go up any further in response to that.

[Rubikscube]

I don't think you should read to much into those la-nina recovery number Michael. The difference between a moderate, or rather strong nino (like 2002 and 2010 respectively), and a ninoish year like 2012 (a year which actually begun as a weak nina), can be quite significant and quite easily account for 0,15C I think. Then, for some of the events in the 80s and 90s you also have volcanic interference.

Don't know how many of you is following daily amsu temps on a regular basis anymore.
http://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/
I still find it rather amusing, even though ch5 ultimately collapsed in 2013, but how reliable are these numbers in general (and then ch6 in particular)?

[bassman]

NASA came in at .76, tied with 2005 for warmest October on record.  My crude average gives 2014 .664 for the year compared to .66 for 2005 and 2010.  Also JMA was the warmest in Oct by a big margin.  Right now, year to date it is slightly above .26 beating .22 for 1998 and .20 for 2013.

[BornFromTheVoid]

At 0.34C above the 81-10 average, JMA have October 2014 as the warmest by quite a large margin.




Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

1st. 2014(+0.34°C),
2nd. 2003(+0.24°C),
3rd. 2006(+0.23°C),
4th. 2012,1997(+0.21°C)

[Lord M Vader]

Interestingly, I don't think November have been as warm as October was which seems somewhat surprising given that NINO 3.4-index have increased.. In any way, the next couple of weeks will determine whether 2014 will be the hottest year ever observed or not. In any case it will for certain be one of the two warmest years. Remember that both 2010 and 2005 didn't have any lingering effect from El Niño. This year we may as well see a weak El Niño emerge by next month. The question is whether that will be enough to make 2014 a record year?

NASA table data said October anomaly was 0,76. Anyone who knows wherein the difference between the two of them is?

//LMV

[deep octopus]

On JMA, NOAA, and MetOffice (HadCRUT4), I think 2014 has the best odds of finishing the record warmest. In fact, it probably will assume such titles on those metrics. NASA is iffier, but looking generally good so far.

For those who like sensitivity analyses: On NASA, if 2014 performs as November-December 2013 did, it would best 2010 by a few hundredths of a point. Performing as well as the 2010s average, 2014 would be 3rd behind 2010 and 2005 (however, 2010 and 2011 were developing La Niñas.) There is still (barely) room for 2014 to falter.

I only have NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis as a guide for month-to-date numbers, and November 2014 is in 2nd place behind 2012 through November 11th (but above 2013.) However, 2013 actually beat 2012 on NASA, and is the current record, so it indicates a possibility that November 2014 could be the record warmest as well. But relying solely on 11 days of data is not enough to predict the end of the month. I think 2014 is positioning in a manner similar to the tail end of 2005 or 2006: a big crescendo towards the end of the year. In 2006, the strongest months were at the end due to a late El Niño. But because December is one of the most fickle months on the record (look at the variation in the NASA spreadsheet), I think that month stands as the most likely time when 2014 is made or broken.

[Lord M Vader]

According to NASA table data December months have ranged from 0,42-0,74C during the years 2001-2013 with 2003 and 2006 being the two warmest. The period 2007-2013 only had anomalies in the range of 0,44-0,59C. This might have been in accordance with more negative AO regimes. AO-index is currently negative and will remain so for the next couple of days according to NOAA forecast. The question is whether 2014 will end up being the warmest on record if December 2014 is in the range of 2007-2013?

//LMV

[deep octopus]

I agree that AO would have its impact, as would NAO by extension, since the tendency for negative phases of those teleconnections is for warm air to displace colder air in the Arctic. Since lower latitudes have a higher area weight than northern latitudes, a negative regime would probably keep the global average on a cooler bias. That seems to be happening this month, since global averages have been sinking in recent days as warm air has moved into the Arctic, displacing cold air to the south. The anomalies in the south are particularly acute. I think that if El Niño can establish, however, the scale of its warming impact would be more dramatic than AO/NAO, and we could see a set up similar to the 2009-2010 northern winter with -ve AO/NAO and +ve ENSO. Global anomalies were still high, regardless that North America and Europe were not getting any share of that heat all winter. No doubt it was lost on people that 2010 was undergoing record global warmth while they were shivering. El Niño's subtropical jet brought lots of snow that winter and also fueled people's perplexity and specious accusations that AGW wasn't happening. Communicating spatial relationships between local versus global has been a struggle regarding AGW. Happened in 2010, and happened again 2014. Yet the numbers can refute perceptions any day of the week.

[crandles]

For Gisstemp, Nov Dec have to average 65 for a record. Compared with Sep Oct averaging 76. So a cooling totalling 22 relative to that average would still give a record. In the last 30 years 3 years: 2012, 1988 and 1984, have shown a cooling of more than 22.

Does this make it a 90% chance of a record?

Several problems with that analysis. Since it is a record hot Sept&Oct perhaps larger cooling is more likely than typical. Also ENSO, perhaps 2012 was coming out of el Nino conditions and 1988 was going into La Nina conditions making such large cooling more likely, whereas this year continues to threaten El Nino conditions starting.

My gut reaction is to marginally increase that 90% chance of a record but it is entirely possible I am missing something important or that my gut reaction is making adjustment in the wrong direction.

YMMV

[Laurent]

Where is global warming’s missing heat?
http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/11/where-global-warming-s-missing-heat

[deep octopus]

It seems likely that 2014 will set a convincing record for ocean temperatures.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/14/october-was-earths-warmest-month-on-record-as-ocean-temperatures-top-charts/

The University of Hawaii at Manao announced Thursday the global oceans were warmest on record for the summer. “[Ocean] temperatures even exceed those of the record-breaking 1998 El Nino year,” said Axel Timmermann, a climate scientist. “The 2014 global ocean warming is mostly due to the North Pacific, which has warmed far beyond any recorded value and has shifted hurricane tracks, weakened trade winds, and produced coral bleaching in the Hawaiian Islands.”

...

Should 2014 set a new global temperature record, it might signal the end of the so-called hiatus in which the rate of temperature rise has slowed, likely due to a cool phase in Pacific ocean temperatures which is (at least temporarily) reversing.

NCDC data shows oceans were +0.45 C over 1951-1980 in 1998. November 2013-October 2014 anomaly is +0.47 C. Last month was +0.56 C, down only slightly from September (which was +0.59 C.) At this rate, 2014's margin should widen and easily take over as the hottest year for oceans.

[Sleepy]

Global Highlights
•The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for October 2014 was the highest on record for October, at 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F).
•The global land surface temperature was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th century average of 9.3°C (48.7°F)—the fifth highest for October on record.
•For the ocean, the October global sea surface temperature was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 15.9°C (60.6°F) and the highest for October on record.
•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–October period (year-to-date) was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.4°F). The first ten months of 2014 were the warmest such period on record.


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/10

[deep octopus]

In the first attachment, the year-to-date temperature for 2014 from NOAA NCDC shows that 2014 has clearly taken over as the 1st warmest year on this metric. In the second attachment, we are shown that it would take a substantial slowdown (both November and December being less than the 10th warmest on record, each) to keep 2014 from finishing as the hottest year on record in the NOAA NCDC dataset. To give a sense of how unlikely this is, since 1997, when monthly reports of NOAA State of the Climate (SOTC) have been released, only 2011 registered a November that was less than the 10th warmest (being 12th at the time); and only 2000 and 2012 registered a December that was less than the 10th warmest (being the 17th and 18th warmest, respectively, at the time.)

[viddaloo]

I remember that winter very well, Deep! A trip across town felt more like a polar expedition. I had miniature glaciers on the inside of my windows.

Was this temperature pattern a variation of the 'polar vortex' syndrome we hear about lately?

[wili]

do, robertscribbler just posted on this and came to much the same conclusion. I don't see how we can avoid a new annual record this year, especially since it seems we will be in El Nino territory through the rest of the year (and probably well beyond).

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/11/20/noaa-first-10-months-of-2014-were-hottest-recorded/

[deep octopus]

I remember that winter very well, Deep! A trip across town felt more like a polar expedition. I had miniature glaciers on the inside of my windows.

Was this temperature pattern a variation of the 'polar vortex' syndrome we hear about lately?

A couple things we know about that winter go into the diagnostics: it featured a record low Arctic Oscillation (AO) index (link: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/ao/) and a strongly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index (link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.timeseries.gif) The first has the effect a weaker polar vortex (-ve AO) and the second a weaker Azores High/weaker Iceland Low (-ve NAO.) The polar vortex (a strong, persistent low pressure zone in the Arctic) typically doesn't form around this time of year (mid- to late-November) and lasts until early spring. With that, the Arctic Oscillation is tied to the strength of the polar vortex, and typically matters to the north hemisphere climate from November until about early April. So a negative AO is typically indicative of a weak polar vortex, such that a disturbance to the jet stream's stability (such as a strong high pressure ridge) forces a wobbling of the polar vortex from the surface all the way to the stratosphere, breaking down the vortex. Cold air ends up diving south as a result.

With the negative NAO, the normal westerlies that bring warm subtropical air up through eastern North America and Europe (through the Ural region) are weaker and we end up with this inversion (Africa is much warmer than average, Europe much cooler than average; Canada much warmer than average and the United States much cooler than Average). Combining with a negative AO is how the extremities really bore out that year. Because 2010 featured a moderate-strong El Niño, the tropics were charged up with much warmer than average temperatures.

tl;dr: Yes, I think winter 2009-2010 was the epitome of a weak polar vortex.

[deep octopus]

do, robertscribbler just posted on this and came to much the same conclusion. I don't see how we can avoid a new annual record this year, especially since it seems we will be in El Nino territory through the rest of the year (and probably well beyond).

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/11/20/noaa-first-10-months-of-2014-were-hottest-recorded/

Moreover, I think if El Niño maintains through early 2015 (or even potentially doubles down for a 2016 event), next year and the following could set records again, leaving the cluster of years from the last decade well behind in the rear view mirror. So I think 2011 will have been the coolest year of the 2010s decade, and 2010 is threatened to be thrown out of the top 5 by 2020.

[wili]

"next year and the following could set records again"

Good point.

[JayW]

Daily global sea surface temperature mean anomaly. I believe it's based on 1981-2010 climatology

Courtesy of tropical tidbits


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html

[bassman]

If you review the Met ocean surface temp anamoly numbers, the hottest Nov surface temps based on a 1961 to 1990 baseline is .42 (2013).  So add .15 or so to what tropical tidbits shows and it seems that the oceans are still at record breaking surface temps.  I would think that cooler land temps this November will prevent Nov from another record overall, however.  On another issue, I'm glad that CNN has finally run a story on record breaking surface temps. 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/diagnostics/HadSST.3.1.1.0_monthly_globe_ts.txt

[deep octopus]

I'm not expecting a record-breaking November this time. In the attachment, the NCEP/NCARP Reanalysis model suggests that November 28th was the coolest day (compared with the 1981-2010 baseline) since February. Alas, after a strong start, the month-to-date average suggests a 9th warmest November. Whereas much of the planet was still substantially warmer than average, the mid-latitudes had been cool enough to palliate this (the second attachment shows the area-weighted temperature anomalies by latitude from November 1st through November 29th.) Negative latitudes are in the southern hemisphere, positive latitudes in the northern. You can see the developing El Niño conditions fold up at the equator, and the northern tropics are generally warmer than average. It's when we get to the mid-latitudes at central Asia and North America that the weaknesses are apparent.

One consideration is that reanalyzed air temperatures over water are not a perfect match with the reanalyzed SST data, and the degree to which this is the case is not obvious to me. So the outcome may vary from this. As bassman points out, if November 2014 sits as the warmest November for ocean temperatures, it would blunt some of the cool land temperatures.

[deep octopus]

UAH says the lower troposphere was +0.33 C over 1981-2010 last month, which is the 2nd warmest on that index.

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt

[deep octopus]

Perusing through NASA, I checked out the agency's press release on the 2010 global temperature report: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20110112/

In it, they state:

Global surface temperatures in 2010 tied 2005 as the warmest on record, according to an analysis released Wednesday by researchers at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

The two years differed by less than 0.018 degrees Fahrenheit. The difference is smaller than the uncertainty in comparing the temperatures of recent years, putting them into a statistical tie.

Emphasis mine. The 0.018 F figure translates to 0.01 C. This suggests that if 2014 were to be within the range of about 0.65 to 0.67 C to finish out the year, it would likely be declared tied with 2010 (and possibly 2005) for the hottest year. Thus I'm reasonably confident NASA will ultimately announce 2014 as the hottest year (if jointly.) Although the trends matter more than single-year data points in the longer term, I posit that witnessing a new temporary peak in temperature is still a very important (and inevitable) part of the message.