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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1250 on: December 05, 2016, 06:43:36 PM »
Quote
THAT my arctic friends are a huge statement, given that the SSTs are lower this November compared to last year when El Niño was it peak!

You mean that atmospheric temperatures haven't cooled like Joe Bastardi and Tony Watts said they would?  SHOCKING...... ;)

What will Joe make up this time?
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magnamentis

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1251 on: December 05, 2016, 08:08:00 PM »
According to Copernicus, November 2016 SLIGHTLY ECLIPSED the exceptionally warm November 2015(!!!)

THAT my arctic friends are a huge statement, given that the SSTs are lower this November compared to last year when El Niño was it peak!



but not SST in the Arctic as much as i can see, the opposite as it seems is the case, many peripheral seas have been way above anything before as far as SST and the artic is concerned, while el nino is in big parts a pacific phenomenon as far as really significant higher SSTs are concerned. ready to learn should that be too far off but i know for sure that my ocean in front of my door is has not been warmer due to el nino, never ever :-)

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1252 on: December 15, 2016, 06:30:25 PM »
NASA just came in with November 2016 conquering a solid second place 0,07oC behind November 2015. Aside of August, November had the highest anomaly since April.

Moe exact, November was 0,95oC warmer than the 1951-1980 average. This is in contrast to the record warm November 2015 which had an anomaly of 1,02oC.

Earlier this month, Copernicus called November to be the warmest on record while Japaneese JMA put it on a third place beind 2015 and 2013.

If December ends up with an anomaly of at least 0,86oC above the normal we'll reach the 1,00oC above the 1951-1980 average. Of course, minor changes might occur later when more data are available. So far, December has been very cold in the area close to Ural and northwestern US and Canada. According to Nick Stokes daily data, with two days lag, the anomaly for December has so far been lower than October which had an anomaly of 0,88oC. December needs to make a warm finish to seal the 1,00 mark.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1253 on: December 15, 2016, 06:40:12 PM »
NASA just came in with November 2016 conquering a solid second place 0,07oC behind November 2015. Aside of August, November had the highest anomaly since April.

Moe exact, November was 0,95oC warmer than the 1951-1980 average. This is in contrast to the record warm November 2015 which had an anomaly of 1,02oC.

This indicates that the 12-month running GISS LOTI departure through November 2016 is 1.015C above the 1951-1980 average or 1.271C above pre-industrial; so there is a good likelihood that the 2016 GMSTA will come-in slightly above 1.25C w.r.t. pre-industrial (per GISS LOTI).

Edit, see the attached NCEP GFS GMSTA projections through Dec 22 2016.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2016, 06:45:53 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1254 on: December 16, 2016, 06:15:58 PM »
Schmidt has up-dated his projection for the 2016 GMSTA based on readings from Jan to Nov 2016; however, in my opinion he is erring on the side of least drama (with his 1.2C projection).
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1255 on: December 16, 2016, 08:45:12 PM »
our last 10-year decadal warming rate is currently twice the 30-year trend.  I expect that we will experience between 0.3 and 0.5 C per decade warming rates over the next 10 years.

this means that we will likely have our first > 1.5C avg year as soon as 2017 and as late as 2021 (based on variability)  This also means that we will likely have our LAST year below 1.5C sometime around 2025 (and have already had at least one year above 2.0C.
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charles_oil

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1256 on: December 19, 2016, 07:38:02 PM »
2017 prediction already in:

Dec 20, 2016 12:01 AM

The Met Office global temperature forecast suggests that 2017 will be another very warm year globally but is unlikely to be a new record due to the absence of additional warming from El Niño.

The global average temperature for 2017 is expected to be between 0.63 °C and 0.87 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C, with a central estimate of 0.75 °C.

Using the 1981-2010 long-term average of 14.3 °C, the forecast range is between 0.32 °C and 0.56 °C, with a central estimate of 0.44 °C.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/global-forecast-2017

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1257 on: December 19, 2016, 07:55:54 PM »
The linked Climate Central article is entitled: "2016 Is Days Away from Sealing Record-Hot Spot", and offers the attached imaging showing how the 2016 GMSTA (relative to 1880-1910) is trending (year to date) compares to 2010, 2014 & 2015.  Will the GMSTA for 2016 end-up closer to 1.25C or 1.2C?

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2016-days-away-from-sealing-record-hot-spot-20990

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1258 on: December 20, 2016, 06:05:46 PM »
our last 10-year decadal warming rate is currently twice the 30-year trend.  I expect that we will experience between 0.3 and 0.5 C per decade warming rates over the next 10 years.
...

I do not disagree with this!  However, we have spent so much time and energy chastising deniers for using a limited number of years of data to "prove" their "pause" -- is there an argument that makes this 10-year trend more statistically significant than theirs?  Other than the fact it looks really, really bad, so purely for logic's (or humanity's) sake we should take it seriously?
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1259 on: December 20, 2016, 11:50:57 PM »
2017 prediction already in:

Dec 20, 2016 12:01 AM

The Met Office global temperature forecast suggests that 2017 will be another very warm year globally but is unlikely to be a new record due to the absence of additional warming from El Niño.

Here is the associated plot:
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anthropocene

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1260 on: December 21, 2016, 09:04:32 AM »
This should be publicised as widely as possible. So the Met office are saying that it is almost statistically certain that 2017 (a non El-Nino year) will be warmer than 1998 which was a strong El-Nino year. So basically in 19 years AGW has matched the impact of  El-Nino. So (taking a overall global view - which isn't strictly correct I know but.....) the news stories in the last 20-odd years attributing negative weather impacts to El-Nino could be similarly attributed to climate change. Of course, the key difference between El-Nino and climate change will be that the next 20 years will put another "El-Nino's" worth of heating on top of what is already here.  And the next 20 years after that.....

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1261 on: December 21, 2016, 09:27:21 AM »
This should be publicised as widely as possible. So the Met office are saying that it is almost statistically certain that 2017 (a non El-Nino year) will be warmer than 1998 which was a strong El-Nino year. So basically in 19 years AGW has matched the impact of  El-Nino. So (taking a overall global view - which isn't strictly correct I know but.....) the news stories in the last 20-odd years attributing negative weather impacts to El-Nino could be similarly attributed to climate change. Of course, the key difference between El-Nino and climate change will be that the next 20 years will put another "El-Nino's" worth of heating on top of what is already here.  And the next 20 years after that.....

Not just any El Nino. The biggest on record and the biggest as far back as we can tell. I think with the way aerosols are trending (flat to slow decline) along with big annual CO2e increases, radiative forcing is going up more rapidly than at any time in history. We may easily break that 19 year interval, especially without a strong trade wind regime like we had for nearly a decade.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1262 on: December 21, 2016, 02:39:40 PM »
This should be publicised as widely as possible. So the Met office are saying that it is almost statistically certain that 2017 (a non El-Nino year) will be warmer than 1998 which was a strong El-Nino year. So basically in 19 years AGW has matched the impact of  El-Nino. So (taking a overall global view - which isn't strictly correct I know but.....) the news stories in the last 20-odd years attributing negative weather impacts to El-Nino could be similarly attributed to climate change. Of course, the key difference between El-Nino and climate change will be that the next 20 years will put another "El-Nino's" worth of heating on top of what is already here.  And the next 20 years after that.....

Unfortunately, for the next decade, the news story will be about the hiatus in global warming as the 2016 El Nino driven spike in temperatures will allow deniers to cherry pick the years that follow as clear evidence the scientists are alarmists until our next El Nino.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1263 on: December 21, 2016, 02:56:28 PM »
This should be publicised as widely as possible. So the Met office are saying that it is almost statistically certain that 2017 (a non El-Nino year) will be warmer than 1998 which was a strong El-Nino year. So basically in 19 years AGW has matched the impact of  El-Nino.

2014 was warmest year on record at that time and I think* it is believed that any warming effect from El Nino starting during the year mainly affects the following year and what effect there is for 2014 is more than offset by negative ENSO for end of previous year and early part of 2014. So 16 years rather than 19 years and has already happened rather than requiring projection.

* It is in wikipedia but (unusually) without a reference for this. Not sure if it would stand up to further analysis eg using Tamino's just 2 months lag linear effect and 10 month lag non linear effect with size of ENSO variation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record#Warmest_years
if anyone is able to add a reference

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1264 on: December 21, 2016, 05:31:25 PM »


I do not disagree with this!  However, we have spent so much time and energy chastising deniers for using a limited number of years of data to "prove" their "pause" --
[/quote]

We knew the Pause was a thing but nature threw in a few extreme's on top ( record trade winds via imbalance between Atlantic and Pacific Basins?) but we also knew that period would end and that warming would resume at at least the rates we saw in the 80's/90's with the extra's of reducing dimming and increased Arctic Amplification on top of that?

PDO/IPO have been positive since 2014 and so must now be looking to continue in that phase else surely they'd have already flipped back by now in the way of other 'inter phase' Phases?

I too would advise holding back from 'calling it' before the Scientists confirm the flip but when they do we should look forward to over a decade of Augmented warming rates with a couple of Nino's possibly thrown in for good measure?
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1265 on: December 21, 2016, 09:48:48 PM »

PDO/IPO have been positive since 2014 and so must now be looking to continue in that phase else surely they'd have already flipped back by now in the way of other 'inter phase' Phases?


For November 2016 the PDO was +1.88.  Also, Schmidt provides the attached 2016-2017 GMSTA projections, for which one should pay attention to both the methodology and the error bars.  Personally, I prefer the plot with the 2017 GMSTA projection provided previously by the UK Met Office.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1266 on: December 28, 2016, 06:44:04 PM »
Zeke Hausfather:  A rather remarkable divergence in recent months between temperature records that include arctic interpolation and those that do not
https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/813851804584710144
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1267 on: December 28, 2016, 10:23:43 PM »
Zeke Hausfather:  A rather remarkable divergence in recent months between temperature records that include arctic interpolation and those that do not


The linked article is entitled: "Record-breaking Arctic warmth ‘extremely unlikely’ without climate change"; and it indicates the importance of tracking GMSTA using data that properly tracks polar temperatures.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/record-breaking-arctic-warmth-extremely-unlikely-wo-cc.html


Extract: "Exceptionally high temperatures across the Arctic this winter are unprecedented in the modern record, and extremely unlikely to occur were it not for the influence of greenhouse gases, according to new research."
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1268 on: December 31, 2016, 06:30:00 AM »
It's more likely than not that December will have the smallest anomaly of 2016.  It may be that the influence of el nino has finally completely faded.  Karsten Haustein's combined month-to-date and near term forecasts give a NCEP average anomaly of 0.465 from 1981-2010 climatology the smallest previous anomaly for 2016 was June's 0.472.  Moyhu is complete thru the 28th, and it's 0.369 anomaly (from 1994-2013 base years) ties for lowest, with June's 0.369.

This is what I expected based on the last mega el nino, after 98, the next two years were about 0.20C cooler than the el nino year, but after 1999 and 2000, we never again had a year as cool as the warmest year before 1998, and I expect that after 2018, our coolest years will be warmer than 2015, the warmest year before 2016.  And the warmest years in the next 20?  I don't want to think about them.

It also looks like for the short term, temperatures are heading back up.


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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1269 on: December 31, 2016, 04:02:34 PM »
IMO, we should be warmer than December 2013 which saw cold weather in North America. Most likely, we should end up with an anomaly of 0,70-0,80oC above the 1951-1980 average. This would put us on a 2-5 place as December 2003, 2006 and 2014 are tightly clustered with an anomaly of 0,75-0,79oC above the average. Personally, I think the value will be about 0,76oC due to the warm oceans.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1270 on: January 03, 2017, 06:14:46 PM »
The attached plot of the GMSTA (w.r.t. pre-industrial) through 2016 comes from the linked article and indicates that the GMSTA for 2016 was very close to +1.25C.

https://thinkprogress.org/2016-hottest-year-on-record-by-far-9fc58ac4cb96#.af6j0faad
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1271 on: January 03, 2017, 06:37:23 PM »
It's more likely than not that December will have the smallest anomaly of 2016.

Per the following data (through Dec 31 2016), the monthly GMSTA value for Dec 2016 was warmer than for that for June 2016, indicating that the global warming trend maybe exerting its influence.  The attached plot shows this pattern for the NCEP-NCAR daily GMSTA through Dec 31 2016.

Last 12 months averages
See below for GISS,NOAA
Year   Month   Anomaly
2016   Dec   0.391
2016   Nov   0.48
2016   Oct   0.419
2016   Sep   0.475
2016   Aug   0.428
2016   Jul   0.414
2016   Jun   0.369
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1272 on: January 04, 2017, 08:02:49 PM »
Copernicus just came in with their analysis for December 2016. Their result is that December ended up being the second warmest such on record and solidly so too. In addition, they find that the December anomaly was higher than June too. The monthly analysis is available at: https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/december-2016

Courtesy: Copernicus.


AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1273 on: January 04, 2017, 09:37:07 PM »
The linked reference confirms NOAA's earlier assessment that the faux hiatus was an artifact of how the data was processed and that in fact global warming has been following the projected trend line (see the following linked article on this topic).

Zeke Hausfather, Kevin Cowtan, David C. Clarke, Peter Jacobs, Mark Richardson and Robert Rohde (04 Jan 2017), "Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records", Science Advances, Vol. 3, no. 1, e1601207, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1601207

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/e1601207

Abstract: "Sea surface temperature (SST) records are subject to potential biases due to changing instrumentation and measurement practices. Significant differences exist between commonly used composite SST reconstructions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), the Hadley Centre SST data set (HadSST3), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency’s Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SSTs (COBE-SST) from 2003 to the present. The update from ERSST version 3b to version 4 resulted in an increase in the operational SST trend estimate during the last 19 years from 0.07° to 0.12°C per decade, indicating a higher rate of warming in recent years. We show that ERSST version 4 trends generally agree with largely independent, near-global, and instrumentally homogeneous SST measurements from floating buoys, Argo floats, and radiometer-based satellite measurements that have been developed and deployed during the past two decades. We find a large cooling bias in ERSST version 3b and smaller but significant cooling biases in HadSST3 and COBE-SST from 2003 to the present, with respect to most series examined. These results suggest that reported rates of SST warming in recent years have been underestimated in these three data sets."

Also see the associated article entitled: "NOAA challenged the global warming ‘pause.’ Now new research says the agency was right".

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/01/04/noaa-challenged-the-global-warming-pause-now-new-research-says-the-agency-was-right/?utm_term=.5d189373f575

… the 2015 paper, led by NOAA’s Thomas Karl, employed an update to the agency’s influential temperature dataset, and in particular to its record of the planet’s ocean temperatures, to suggest that really, the recent period was perfectly consistent with the much longer warming trend.

This didn’t merely surprise some scientists (who had been busily studying why global warming had appeared to moderate its rate somewhat in the early 21st century). It actually led to a congressional subpoena from Rep. Lamar Smith, chair of the House Committee on Science, who charged that “NOAA’s decision to readjust historical temperature records has broad national implications” and requested more information on why NOAA had made the dataset adjustment, including data and communications from the scientists involved.

That controversy is likely to be stirred anew in the wake of a new study, published Wednesday in Science Advances, that finds the NOAA scientists did the right thing in adjusting their dataset."

Edit: For more discussion on this topic see the linked The Guardian article below:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jan/04/new-study-confirms-noaa-finding-of-faster-global-warming
« Last Edit: January 04, 2017, 11:31:13 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1274 on: January 04, 2017, 09:48:07 PM »
Quote
That controversy is likely to be stirred anew in the wake of a new study, published Wednesday in Science Advances, that finds the NOAA scientists did the right thing in adjusting their dataset."

Yes...but surely Rep Lamar Smith (Texas) will be apologizing to all the hard working climate scientists for calling them liars.

Probably right after Donald Trump shows his tax returns.... ;)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1275 on: January 05, 2017, 05:32:00 PM »
As a follow-up to my Reply #1273 , the linked article entitled: "Ocean data upgrade confirms pace of recent warming"; confirms that the SST data reported in the last few decades (1998 to 2015) should have been higher than previously presented (see the attached image).

https://www.carbonbrief.org/ocean-data-upgrade-confirms-pace-of-recent-warming

Extract: "A new study, published in Science Advances, uses the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data to see which global dataset best captures the warming in recent decades. The closest match, the authors find, is the one that shows the fastest temperature rise.

Their findings suggested that the much-discussed “slowdown” in warming at Earth’s surface was largely a result of the way temperature records have been pieced together."
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1276 on: January 05, 2017, 08:47:38 PM »
I see from Roy Spencer's blog about the UAH satellite global temp data that even the much touted warm El Nino year of 1998 has been surpassed by last year as the warmest year in the 38 year satellite record.

Annual average anomaly for 2016 was 0.50
and anomaly for 1998 was 0.48

And yet, perversely, Roy has managed to put his own twist on this with a headline claiming "Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998".

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/01/global-satellites-2016-not-statistically-warmer-than-1998/

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1277 on: January 05, 2017, 09:41:21 PM »
Quote
And yet, perversely, Roy has managed to put his own twist on this with a headline claiming "Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998".

Roy Spencer also is also not statistically more ethical now....than he was in 1998.  Maybe even less so.... ;)

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1278 on: January 06, 2017, 05:01:43 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "World heat shatters records in 2016 in new sign of global warming", and it indicates that the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service claims that the 12-month GMSTA for 2016 was +1.3C above pre-industrial:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-temperatures-idUSKBN14P24Z

Extract: "Last year was the hottest on record by a wide margin, with temperatures creeping close to a ceiling set by almost 200 nations for limiting global warming, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Thursday.

Global surface temperatures in 2016 averaged 14.8 degrees Celsius (58.64°F), or 1.3C (2.3F) higher than estimated before the Industrial Revolution ushered in wide use of fossil fuels, the EU body said."
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1279 on: January 06, 2017, 06:54:04 PM »
Zeke Hausfather posted the two attached images to indicate that: (1) the GISTEMP record shows no clear evidence of the faux hiatus (see first image); and (2) the RSS TTT record shows more warming than the GISTEMP record (see the second image):
« Last Edit: January 06, 2017, 07:20:42 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1280 on: January 17, 2017, 01:59:29 AM »
Japan's Meteorological Agency has released results for December.  The 0.33C anomaly (from 1981-2010) is 2nd warmest in the instrument record, but down sharply from the 0.66C of 2015.

2016 in JMA's record easily beats 2015. 

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1281 on: January 18, 2017, 05:04:01 PM »
Per the linked Mashable article (& plot) the NASA GMSTA in 2016, w.r.t. the 1951-1980 average, was 0.99C as compared to 0.87C in 2015, and that all areas of the Earth were warmer than last year:

http://mashable.com/2017/01/18/2016-warmest-year-nasa-noaa-global-warming/#CBI4mjJxNPqI

Edit, also see the following linked article (& second attached plot) from GISS entitled: "NASA, NOAA Data Show 2016 Warmest Year on Record Globally".

https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20170118/

Extract: "Globally-averaged temperatures in 2016 were 1.78 degrees Fahrenheit (0.99 degrees Celsius) warmer than the mid-20th century mean. This makes 2016 the third year in a row to set a new record for global average surface temperatures."

Edit: I note that using a 0.256 adjustment factor, this gives a value of +1.246C above pre-industrial for GISS's data for 2016.

Edit2: When I use the LOTI data from the following link I get the GMSTA above pre-industrial as +1.248C

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
« Last Edit: January 18, 2017, 06:38:55 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1282 on: January 18, 2017, 05:28:24 PM »
The attached plot by Gavin Schmidt indicates that all major GMSTA data sets (wrt the 1951-1980 mean) were in close agreement through 2016
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charles_oil

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1283 on: January 18, 2017, 06:39:20 PM »
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/2016-record-breaking-year-for-global-temperature

Provisional full-year figures for global average near-surface temperatures confirm that last year, 2016, was one of the warmest two years on record, nominally exceeding the record temperature of 2015.
When viewed alongside 2015, the two years are the warmest in an annual series of figures that starts in 1850.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1284 on: January 18, 2017, 09:53:42 PM »
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1285 on: January 18, 2017, 10:55:07 PM »

Edit2: When I use the LOTI data from the following link I get the GMSTA above pre-industrial as +1.248C

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Not directed at you, ASLR, but, considering we are looking at a devastating Arctic season and record low global ice at the present 1.248C, how the hell do we justify 1.5C (let alone 2C) as the upper "safe" limit?

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1286 on: January 18, 2017, 11:03:54 PM »
Not directed at you, ASLR, but, considering we are looking at a devastating Arctic season and record low global ice at the present 1.248C, how the hell do we justify 1.5C (let alone 2C) as the upper "safe" limit?

By the end of the century I suspect that people will be looking back at 2016 as the "Good Old Days", w.r.t. climate.

P.S. the attached sketch may well error on the side of least drama w.r.t. the GMSTA by 2100.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1287 on: January 19, 2017, 01:16:44 AM »
The linked August 9, 2016 Bits of Science article is entitled: "Observed vs ‘Real’ Global Temperature. What thermometers do & don’t yet show! ".  While understanding observed vs "real" global temperature change is a complex matter; nevertheless, I attached the associated graph from the article that illustrates the nonlinear global warming trend line that we are currently following, and that we may continue following if we don't soon get off the BAU pathway that we have been following for decades:

http://www.bitsofscience.org/observed-vs-real-global-temperature-series-conclusion-7180/


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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1288 on: January 19, 2017, 08:01:55 AM »
When I used the GISS data for the years 1880-1899 I got a yearly anomaly of 0,215o from the 1951-1980 average which implicates an anomaly of +1,205oC from "pre-industrial".

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1289 on: January 19, 2017, 01:40:55 PM »
Found a nice 3-D animation of global temperatures:



Maybe also interesting regarding increase of energy input:



detailed datasource and backgrounds for calculations here:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” –“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1290 on: January 19, 2017, 06:06:02 PM »
In other words why doesn't SkS use Cowtan & Way's data?

Actually it doesn't matter much in this case.  For the Cowtan & Way data, the 2015 annual average temperature is +1.119°C above the 1850-1899 average, and +1.124°C above the 1880-1909 average.  That is practically the same as for the 2015 annual average GISS LOTI data, which is about +1.11°C above the 1880-1909 average.

For the 2 graphs below, I downloaded some data from the Cowtan & Way, HadCRUT4, and GISS LOTI websites respectively, and I used a common baseline 1961-1990 for each of them.  As can be seen, Cowtan & Way (red curve) tends to be lower than the other 2 curves during the late 19th century.  But for the early 20th century, GISS (green curve) tends to be lower than the other 2 curves.

Plot from 1850 to 2015  (note that GISS starts only from 1880 onwards):



... and from 1970 to 2015:



As Steven is much better (than myself) at processing the statistics of temperature data sets, I note that in this post from last year he gives a GISS LOTI value for 2015 of +1.11C w.r.t. the 1880-1909 average. Furthermore, in GISS's announcement of the 2016 GISS LOTI value they state that it was +0.99C and that the 2015 value was +0.87 w.r.t. to the 1951-1980 average.  Thus using addition and subtraction this means that the 2016 GISS LOTI is at least +1.23C w.r.t. the 1880-1909 average.  This roughly confirms the SkS adjustment factor of +0.256C to convert from GISS LOTI values w.r.t. the 1951-1980 average to pre-industrial values; which support my previously posted values for the 2016 GISS LOTI of between +1.246 and +1.248C above pre-industrial.

Edit, aee also the NASA plots through the end of 2016 in the linked pdf:

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/noaa-nasa_global_analysis-2016.pdf
« Last Edit: January 19, 2017, 06:15:06 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1291 on: January 20, 2017, 09:09:31 PM »
This thread has had posts related to 'climate sensitivity', so I post this here.

Ancient CO2 estimates worry climatologists

Quote
...
An improvement [in determining past estimates of the CO2 composition of the air] was suggested some years back .... Their method included a means of assessing the back and forth exchange of leaf gases with the atmosphere from measurements of the carbon isotopes in preserved organic carbon in the fossil leaves, and combined this with stomatal density and the actual shape of stomata. Not only did this narrow the range of variation in atmospheric CO2 results for times past, but the mean values were dramatically lessened. Rather than values ranging up to 2000 to 3000 parts per million (~ 10 times the pre-industrial value) in the Devonian and the late-Triassic and early-Jurassic, the gas-exchange method does not rise above 1000 ppm in the Phanerozoic.

The upshot of these findings strongly suggests that the Earth’s climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 (the amount of global climatic warming for a doubling of pre-industrial CO2 concentration) may be greater than previously thought; around 4° rather than the currently accepted 3°C. If this proves to be correct it forebodes a much higher global temperature than present estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for various emission scenarios through the 21st century.
[emphasis added]
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1292 on: January 22, 2017, 08:05:45 PM »
While I personally believe that the CMIP5 GMSTA projections err on the side of least drama, ESLD; nevertheless, the attached image released by Gavin Schmidt comparing the observed GMSTA through the middle of 2016 to the radiative forcing adjusted CMIP5 projections, confirms at least that: (a) the faux pause is nothing more than a blip in the general warming trend and that (b) as indicated by relatively complex ESM projections, we are now entering a period of accelerating global warming (and reasonable people can argue about just how fast this acceleration will be with continued anthropogenic radiative forcing):
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1293 on: January 26, 2017, 04:57:51 PM »
The linked 2017 reference by Hawkins et. al. is entitled: "Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period".  I indicates that pre-industrial was 0.55 to 0.8C cooler than 1986-2005.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1

Abstract: "Better defining (or altogether avoiding) the term ‘pre-industrial’ would aid interpretation of internationally agreed global temperature limits and estimation of the required constraints to avoid reaching those limits.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process agreed in Paris to limit global surface temperature rise to ‘well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’. But what period is ‘pre-industrial’? Some-what remarkably, this is not defined within the UNFCCC’s many agreements and protocols. Nor is it defined in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in the evaluation of when particular temperature levels might be reached because no robust definition of the period exists. Here we discuss the important factors to consider when defining a pre-industrial period, based on estimates of historical radiative forcings and the availability of climate observations. There is no perfect period, but we suggest that 1720-1800 is the most suitable choice when discussing global temperature limits. We then estimate the change in global average temperature since pre-industrial using a range of approaches based on observations, radiative forcings, global climate model simulations and proxy evidence. Our assessment is that this pre-industrial period was likely 0.55–0.80°C cooler than 1986-2005 and that 2015 was likely the first year in which global average temperature was more than 1°C above pre-industrial levels. We provide some recommendations for how this assessment might be improved in future and suggest that reframing temperature limits with a modern baseline would be inherently less uncertain and more policy-relevant."


See also:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/we-may-be-closer-to-dangerous-climate-thresholds.html

Extract: "What was the pre-industrial temperature? If the pre-industrial temperature is cooler than 1951-1980, it would mean that we have warmed even more than 1°C (1.8°F).
A study just out in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society tackles this question head on. In this article, lead author Dr. Ed Hawkins from the University of Reading and an international team of colleagues take into account many climate records that date back decades and centuries. Based on their analysis, they determined that the period 1720-1800 is the best selection for “pre-industrial.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1294 on: January 28, 2017, 08:48:51 PM »
Related to my last Reply, #1293, about Hawkins et. al. (2017), the first linked article is entitled: "A new baseline?".

First, I note that per Hawkins et al. (2017), the GMSTA from pre-industrial should be about +0.05C greater than with regard to the 1850-1900 average:

"Conclusions & implications

2. The 1850-1900 period is a reasonable pragmatic surrogate for pre-industrial global mean temperature. The available evidence suggests it was slightly warmer than 1720-1800 by around 0.05 °C, but this is not statistically significant."


https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2017/01/28/a-new-baseline/

Extract: "The basic suggestion seems to be that we should probably be defining pre-industrial as the period 1720-1800, rather than as the period 1850-1900, which is often what it is assumed to be. As I understand it this is largely because our emissions probably started in the mid-1700s, rather than the mid-1800s, and that, consequently, there is a some warming that is missed if you define the baseline as being 1850-1900, rather than as 1720-1800."


The second linked related article (and attached image) is entitled: "Defining ‘pre-industrial’", which indicates that as a lower bound per GISS we slightly below about 1.25C above pre-industrial.

https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2017/defining-pre-industrial/

Extract: "What does this mean for the Paris agreement?

Now we are able to define the starting line for the global temperature limits stated in the Paris agreement, we can also better define the finishing line. The IPCC 5th Assessment Report used 1850-1900 as a historical baseline (but did not formally define this as ‘pre-industrial’), and estimated the warming from then to 1986-2005 at 0.61°C. The new analysis finds that this historical warming assumed by the IPCC is at the lower limit of what we assess is the true change since pre-industrial times."

See also the linked home page for: High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX)
http://helixclimate.eu/home
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1295 on: February 02, 2017, 06:34:32 PM »
The twos attached images & data from the linked website indicates that the monthly NCEP/NCAR GMSTA for January 2017 was 0.486C, which is the greatest monthly anomaly since April 2016 when the 15-16 El Nino was still impacting the GMSTA values.  To me this January 2017 value supports the concept that the increase in GMSTA is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change:

https://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html
« Last Edit: February 02, 2017, 06:40:21 PM by AbruptSLR »
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subgeometer

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1296 on: February 03, 2017, 02:49:30 AM »
<quote

I have processed historical FDDs at 3 degree increments, both lat. and long. over one quadrant of the Arctic.  The difficulty is in presentation for me.  Perhaps this will elicit some suggestions. 

</quote>
Responding to Cognitive Bias on the freezing season thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1611.msg101593.html#msg101593}

One could create a map of the basin with the sector borders marked which brought up the graph for each sector as the pointer hovers over it , with an interface to allow creating larger regions out of the sectors. That seems to me like an intuitive way to browse the data


subgeometer

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1297 on: February 03, 2017, 02:51:05 AM »
Sorry for the OT, I misdirected myself

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1298 on: February 03, 2017, 08:34:54 AM »
From Nick Stokes value at +0,486o anomaly for January I think we can be fairly sure that January 2017 was at least the third warmest on record behind 2016 and 2007. There is of course a small  chance that  we will beat 2007 and end up second warmest but the third place should be the most realistic outcome.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1299 on: February 07, 2017, 02:24:57 PM »
I am re-posting LVM's post below from the 2017 ENSO thread as it seems to fit better here:

According to Copernicus, January 2017 was with a slim margin to 2007 the second warmest such on record. It was however 0,17oC cooler than January 2016. https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/january-2017

Copernicus outcome is very realistic and I believe NOAA will put January 2017 on a solid third place while NASA should put it very close to 2007. Worth to mention is that the current weak La Niña is fading but should still put some flavors to the global temps which is how we should see this January in context.
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― Leon C. Megginson