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Author Topic: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con  (Read 134799 times)

icefest

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #100 on: April 11, 2014, 12:31:51 PM »
Well, at least Monckton has said that the world is getting warmer.:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #101 on: April 11, 2014, 01:24:39 PM »
Well, at least Monckton has said that the world is getting warmer.


You haven't actually read some of Monckton@WUWT have you?  :o

I note however that my pithy comment is still invisible to the assembled multitude.

Time for another blog post on censorship in the denialosphere?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/03/shock-news-real-science-censorship/
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icefest

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #102 on: April 11, 2014, 02:43:52 PM »
I've read more of Monckton than I care to admit.

I just found it funny that he's prepared to go so far as to admit that the world has warmed over the past 20 years.
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #103 on: April 11, 2014, 09:29:40 PM »
Is it just me, or was that disrespectful for him to call out your real name like that?

Watts once revealed in which German town was living. I can only assume he was hoping I would run in to some neonazis who believe AGW is a communist hoax. The man's a coward and a hypocrite.
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #104 on: April 11, 2014, 09:40:51 PM »
It is not worth spending time on those guys.
I stopped giving them attention several years ago, and I think that is the best way to neutralize them.
As long as the opposition is not more serious I am not concerned.
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #105 on: April 12, 2014, 03:20:29 PM »
It is not worth spending time on those guys.

I know what you mean Espen, but for the moment I'm actually quite enjoying documenting the assorted little subterfuges of Messrs Monckton and Watts. By way of a topical example:

« Last Edit: April 12, 2014, 03:25:43 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Espen

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #106 on: April 12, 2014, 04:02:58 PM »
As long as you let the marginalized pay a relatively high expense to reduce energy consumption, there will always be a breeding ground for all sorts of arguments.
Already about 15% of the German population can not afford to pay for the "green" transition, and too many do not really care about this huge problem, especially not the "power that be".
Always bear in mind, that an Austrian decorator was elevated to something really bad!
And remember those who have less to loose, also tend to care less!
So the question is who is going to pay, because it is not a free lunch?
And in Europe I believe we already have too many elitist projects going on, so the real problems together with many other issues will be putt on a back burner.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2014, 10:02:49 PM by Espen »
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #107 on: April 13, 2014, 01:14:09 AM »
Already about 15% of the German population can not afford to pay for the "green" transition

Do you have a reference for that?  That would be over 12,000,000 people. 

I find numbers for Germans having their electricity turned off in the 175,000 to 200,000 household range from reliable sources.  As much as 600,000 from the sorts of places that deny climate change.

And those numbers are for the people who had their electricity turned off for non-payment.  That does not mean that they are living without electricity, they could have experienced a temporary loss due to non-payment and then had it restored.

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #108 on: April 13, 2014, 04:16:47 AM »
Cannot afford does not mean the same thing as having your electricity shut off though.  For every household which does have that happen there would be many times more households struggling to make payments.  And how many people live in the average household? 

Germany's Energy Poverty: How Electricity Became a Luxury Good

...In the near future, an average three-person household will spend about €90 a month for electricity. That's about twice as much as in 2000.

Two-thirds of the price increase is due to new government fees, surcharges and taxes. But despite those price hikes, government pensions and social welfare payments have not been adjusted. As a result, every new fee becomes a threat to low-income consumers.
Consumer advocates and aid organizations say the breaking point has already been reached. Today, more than 300,000 households a year are seeing their power shut off because of unpaid bills. Caritas and other charity groups call it "energy poverty."..

It is only gradually becoming apparent how the renewable energy subsidies redistribute money from the poor to the more affluent, like when someone living in small rental apartment subsidizes a homeowner's roof-mounted solar panels through his electricity bill.

Germany's renewable energy policy is particularly unfair with respect to the economy. About 2,300 businesses have managed to largely exempt themselves from the green energy surcharge by claiming, often with little justification, that they face tough international competition. Companies with less lobbying power, however, are required to pay the surcharge.


http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/high-costs-and-errors-of-german-transition-to-renewable-energy-a-920288.html
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Espen

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #109 on: April 13, 2014, 09:41:21 AM »
Already about 15% of the German population can not afford to pay for the "green" transition

Do you have a reference for that?  That would be over 12,000,000 people. 

I find numbers for Germans having their electricity turned off in the 175,000 to 200,000 household range from reliable sources.  As much as 600,000 from the sorts of places that deny climate change.

And those numbers are for the people who had their electricity turned off for non-payment.  That does not mean that they are living without electricity, they could have experienced a temporary loss due to non-payment and then had it restored.

It was not meant as a denial argument, but more as a fact of life for many people.
And the denial of this problem, is where the real problem is!
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #110 on: April 13, 2014, 10:03:08 AM »
It was not meant as a denial argument, but more as a fact of life for many people.
And the denial of this problem, is where the real problem is!

For those from overseas who may not be aware of the genesis of the name, the "Great White Con" title is a parody of David Rose's "Great Green Con" meme, regularly aired with great delight by the Mail on Sunday.
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #111 on: April 13, 2014, 06:50:22 PM »
It was not meant as a denial argument, but more as a fact of life for many people.
And the denial of this problem, is where the real problem is!


12 million people?

My point was that even the denier sites are using a much lower number.  600 thousand households with 3 people average would be only 1.8 million.

The average monthly electricity bill in the US in 2012 was $110.   €90 is $125.  Not much more than what we pay in the US.




Espen

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #112 on: April 13, 2014, 07:29:59 PM »
It was not meant as a denial argument, but more as a fact of life for many people.
And the denial of this problem, is where the real problem is!


12 million people?

My point was that even the denier sites are using a much lower number.  600 thousand households with 3 people average would be only 1.8 million.

The average monthly electricity bill in the US in 2012 was $110.   €90 is $125.  Not much more than what we pay in the US.


You are comparing oranges and apples, in the US (1402 kWh per capita) there is a very high use of air conditioners in private homes that is not the case in Germany (861 kWh per capita), and the price per KWH is much higher in Germany than most places in the world, I think the only country with higher KWH prices is Denmark (643 kWw per capita), and again due to wind power subsidies. But low income Danes receive a much higher wage in general than their German colleagues, they are not hurt in the same way, yet!

You are talking about how many Germans get their electricity supply cut, I am talking about how many Germans have hard times paying their electricity bills. Germans in general also receive a heating bill on top of that.

That said I don't believe in the wind power strategy, because you still need a CO2 driven back up system, I believe more in wave technology, this technology is not as ugly, noisy and unreliable as wind power.

It would be fair to let consumers pay a extremely high price for KWH used above the average use of the market, but that will never happen, for logical reasons.

From the Welt:
"Zehn bis 15 Prozent der Bevölkerung kämpfen damit, die stetig steigenden Energiekosten zu finanzieren."

http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article106236425/Strom-ist-fuer-viele-Deutsche-unbezahlbar-geworden.html

http://theenergycollective.com/lindsay-wilson/279126/average-electricity-prices-around-world-kwh 

And then you have Norway, with the highest low income wages in the world, with kWh prices less than US 6 cents per unit (hydro power) and with a very high per capita electric power consumption (2603 kWh per capita) due to heating. But they have on the other hand one of highest prices for gasolin USD 2,30 per liter or USD 8,75 per gallon. And highest per capita use of electric cars.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2014, 08:25:54 PM by Espen »
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #113 on: April 13, 2014, 08:19:45 PM »
Germans pay only 14% more than Americans for their electricity.  Their kWh rate is higher, but because they have had high rates well before renewables or the decision to close nuclear they are much more efficient in their use of electricity.

A 14% higher electricity cost would not, as far as I can understand, put 12,000,000 people in the dark.  Especially in a country where rents are 15% cheaper and food about 5% cheaper.

$200 per person per month for food = $600 per month for a three person household. Europeans would pay $30 less.

Average rent in the US is $1083.  15% less is $162.

More than makes up for the extra $15 electricity costs.

Monthly bill:monthly bill = apples:apples.

That said I don't believe in the wind power strategy, because you still need a CO2 driven back up system, I believe more in wave technology.

You are free to believe that, but the world does not believe with you.  We have no adequate way to harvest wave power.  And there are times during which wave action drops very low which makes wave a non-100% operating energy source.

All forms of electricity generation need backup.  Right now we use over-capacity, including but not exclusively fossil fuels.  Going forward we will continue to replace fossil fuels with storage and renewable generation.


It would be fair to let consumers pay a extremely high price for KWH used above the average use of the market, but that will never happen, for logical reasons.

Tiered billing based on usage is very common.  Standard practice here in CA.  PG&E has three tiers, 13c, 15c, 32c and 36c/kwh.

And then you have Norway, with the highest low income wages in the world, with kWh prices less than US 10 cents per unit (hydro power) and with a very high per capita electric power consumption due to heating.

You do realize, do you not, that several European countries have long applied taxes to electricity and vehicle fuel as a way to encourage efficiency and conservation?  That's why Europeans tend to drive much more efficient cars than do Americans.

The renewable energy surcharge in Germany is 5.3 euro cents.  There's 8.5c of taxes on each kWh of electricity that goes to the government general funds (VAT, etc.).

Norway is a producer and exported of oil.  The price of a gallon of regular gasoline in Norway (Sep. '13) was $10.08.

BTW EVs, especially the Tesla S, are selling like hotcakes in Norway.  Between being able to dodge taxes and the high price of fuel Norwegians are electrifying.

Espen

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #114 on: April 13, 2014, 08:35:11 PM »
The energy prices are not a problem for the average German or American, but German low income earners ,and they are extremely low paid, face the problem. That problem do you not answer!

And average US kWh price 12 cent is 66% less than German average price of 35 cent.

http://theenergycollective.com/lindsay-wilson/279126/average-electricity-prices-around-world-kwh
« Last Edit: April 13, 2014, 08:43:00 PM by Espen »
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Espen

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #115 on: April 13, 2014, 08:54:47 PM »
And a few other of your numbers are apples and orange number.
Rent in the US is for private owned home (70 %) in general, whereas in Germany they are mainly rented (60 %)!
Food I don't believe is cheaper in Germany than the US, but I don't have the figures, it is only based on my personal experiences.

http://qz.com/167887/germany-has-one-of-the-worlds-lowest-homeownership-rates/
« Last Edit: April 13, 2014, 09:24:48 PM by Espen »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #116 on: April 13, 2014, 11:11:47 PM »
And average US kWh price 12 cent is 66% less than German average price of 35 cent.

The important metric is how much it costs per month to keep the lights on.  Since Germans use far less, on average, their higher cost is largely offset.

Food I don't believe is cheaper in Germany than the US

This site disagrees with your impression.

http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_countries_result.jsp?country1=United+States&country2=Germany

Rent in the US is for private owned home (70 %) in general, whereas in Germany they are mainly rented (60 %)

People are paying less to rent in Germany.  That's the data.  Paying less for rent (and food) can easily make up for the $15/month utility bill difference.

Additionally, don't you suspect Germany has a stronger safety net than the libertarian "I've got mine, screw you" US?

But enough quibbling over $15 per month.  Where does the 12 million Germans without electricity come from?

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #117 on: April 13, 2014, 11:28:58 PM »
Personally I'd prefer it if we didn't get into a protracted discussion about the pros and cons of renewable energy here, but I will say this. My business card states that I'm a "smart grid consultant". I'm a member of RegenSW, an organisation which states that it "Is a leading centre of sustainable energy expertise and pioneering project delivery". Nonetheless I have actively campaigned against large scale solar PV "farms" on top quality agricultural land in my neck of the woods.

The perverse incentives produced by the renewables "subsidies" here in the UK lead to large sums of money being wasted on subsidised projects that are a total nonsense in terms of "saving the planet". This sort of stuff is grist to the mill of the likes of David Rose and the Mail on Sunday. The truth is bizarre enough, so they have no need to perpetrate falsehoods, which they undoubtedly do in the case of Arctic sea ice. The "Great Green Con" does actually have some basis in fact.

Returning to the topic of mass media misrepresentations about Arctic sea ice (AKA The Great White Con) here's some shock news about our latest counter argument, as recently recommended by Anthony Watts!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/04/new-arctic-sea-ice-resources/

Constructive criticism welcome! 
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icefest

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #118 on: April 14, 2014, 01:17:13 AM »
I believe more in wave technology, this technology is not as ugly, noisy and unreliable as wind power.

Do you really think that wave power is a viable alternative to wind?
  • It's expensive - further increasing the costs per MWH.
  • It needs waves - That means it can only work in the Nordsee.
  • It's not market ready - that means at least another ~10 years of BAU.
The only viable renewable energies currently are hydro (fully exploited in Germany), biomass/fuel (not enough land for fuel growth), solar (thermal - Germany is too cold; PV is expensive but possible), wind and geothermal.

The only real short-term renewable options in Germany are Solar and Wind with an option of geothermal in the future (due to longer planning timeframes). The other options either are lacking resources (biomass - land, and hydro - exploitable rivers) or the technology is underdeveloped.

As far as wave energy goes, Germany has it pretty bad.
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #119 on: April 14, 2014, 01:24:13 AM »
(message redacted for being a stupid question)

Espen

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #120 on: April 14, 2014, 04:30:23 AM »
Bob;

Whatever numbers you and I come up with, there are people struggling to pay their energy bills, and it is a elite view to argue that this is not a problem.  I am not German, but I visit Germany regularly.

Jim,

I know the pro and cons discussions are not that funny, at least not when one have just a little social conscience?
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #121 on: April 14, 2014, 08:32:47 AM »
Espen,

Personally I think your point is a valid one. As I hope I've made clear I think discussion of "The Great Green Con" versus "The Great White Con" is on topic here. More general pro/anti renewables "debates" are not, and will get in the way of discussing the issue you raise (all IMHO).

In the UK "fuel poverty" is a hot political potato, and both The Mail et al. and The Government are well aware of that fact:

http://econnexus.org/ed-davey-launches-cornwall-together-at-the-eden-project/
« Last Edit: April 14, 2014, 08:45:04 AM by Jim Hunt »
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icefest

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #122 on: April 14, 2014, 11:18:00 AM »
Sorry Jim. I'll keep to the topic at hand.

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Espen

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #123 on: April 14, 2014, 11:23:31 AM »
Jim,

What ever their names is Rose, Watt etc. all they do is knowing they have an audience for many of the reasons mentioned above. I dont mind wind power, s long it is far away from where I live.
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #124 on: April 14, 2014, 12:16:49 PM »
What ever their names is Rose, Watt etc. all they do is knowing they have an audience for many of the reasons mentioned above.


Quite so Espen. Here's more on local opposition to wind turbines over here in Soggy South West England:

http://econnexus.org/permission-refused-for-the-totnes-community-wind-farm/

I dont mind wind power, s long it is far away from where I live.


Do you personally dislike the sight of wind turbines, or the sound, or both? Here in the UK they strike me as making far more sense (from an engineering perspective) than large scale "agricultural" solar PV, for the reasons mentioned by Vaclav Smil (this from my "professional" blog):

http://www.v2g.co.uk/2012/07/renewable-energy-is-the-work-of-generations-of-engineers/

However from a political perspective they unfortunately offer lots of ammunition to Rose, Watts and their ilk.

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #125 on: April 14, 2014, 03:08:17 PM »
Personally I'm not sure why we don't just go with Nuclear. The damn things kill a hell of a lot less people per kw/h produced than any other form of power and it's a hell of a lot better for the environment than burning fuels. Especially if you include the cost in lives from extraction of the fuel used.


icefest

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #126 on: April 14, 2014, 05:07:33 PM »

http://www.v2g.co.uk/2012/07/renewable-energy-is-the-work-of-generations-of-engineers/


Thanks for the link,  I hadn't seen that Gates video yet.

For those interested one of the book that's mentioned by him is freely available here:

It's great reading - I haven't come across any 'ammunition' yet though.

http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/sustainable/book/tex/sewtha.pdf

@Siffy, Shall we move the nuclear conversation over to http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,776.0.html We seem to be getting off topic.
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #127 on: April 17, 2014, 01:29:03 PM »
The so called "Real Science" blog has been badmouthing Al Gore recently. I'm afraid I couldn't let that slight on Al's predictive abilities go unchallenged. Steve Goddard evidently didn't care for my suggestion that he "is fond of poetic license", so my alter ego is "now spam" there too:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/statuses/456747699639832576
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #128 on: April 24, 2014, 02:39:33 AM »
The so called "Real Science" blog has been badmouthing Al Gore recently. I'm afraid I couldn't let that slight on Al's predictive abilities go unchallenged. Steve Goddard evidently didn't care for my suggestion that he "is fond of poetic license", so my alter ego is "now spam" there too:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/statuses/456747699639832576

What'll happen if we get to ~9/20/2016 without the ice disappearing? Even if we have a minimum of 1.1 M km^2, I'm sure Goddard will claim victory once again.

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #129 on: April 29, 2014, 08:02:26 PM »
A fellow Exonian is getting lots of stick at WUWT at the moment:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/04/debating-skeptics-is-like-mud-wrestling-with-pigs/

In case anyone is interested in such matters I now find myself in a conversation with Dr. Stephan Harrison of Exeter University about "the behaviour of the Southern Westerlies during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene" over at And Then There's Physics:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #130 on: May 13, 2014, 05:19:46 PM »
In related news it gives me great pleasure to announce that I have just received a personal "Thank you" note from Richard Tol for contributing an image of the crumbling sea ice at the North Pole to his shiny new "IPCC Wiki".
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #131 on: June 10, 2014, 09:06:00 PM »
This deserves a couple of blog posts at least, but I'm off to watch "Thin Ice" shortly.

Fresh from debating the thoughts of Richard Tol at WUWT I had the temerity to suggest that all those in WattsLand attempting to forecast the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent could usefully use some facts and figures concerning thickness and volume. Here's what happened next:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/statuses/476405196570886144
« Last Edit: June 11, 2014, 11:37:43 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Neven

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #132 on: June 10, 2014, 09:12:28 PM »
I saw that, Jim. Last year's 'recovery' (where even the WUWT community predicted too low) has emboldened them, it seems, to vote for very high September average SIE minimums. Although this year has some superficial resemblances with 2013, I wouldn't be too sure about a repeat. There are also a couple of similarities with the years preceding 2013.

But anyway, Watts says that they're voting for extent, and as volume has no influence whatsoever on extent (both unrelated from each other, just like the Arctic isn't part of the planet we are all living on), it makes no sense at all to keep an eye on SMOS, CryoSat-2, IceBridge and PIOMAS.
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #133 on: June 10, 2014, 11:57:10 PM »
Jim HIJACKING WUWT. Didn't know Joe understood what that meant. ;) ;D  Think that is a pot with a burnt out bottom on that subject.
For one who accuses every other site for fudging data his does an absolutely amazing job.
Congats. I am one who enjoys your fine work.
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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #134 on: June 11, 2014, 01:30:56 AM »
Thanks for your kind words folks.

I've just got back from a very interesting evening NOT watching "Thin Ice". The movie was never delivered! Instead I found myself chucking ideas around with the remnants of Occupy Exeter. Anyone know of a design for an electricity generating exercise bike?

It seems that after reading the runes the favoured number in WattsLand is 6.25 million km2, and all of a sudden the WUWT sea ice reference page is now dated June 10th!

P.S. It seems the Watts forecast involves "submit[ing] the weighted average value of the top 5 vote-getters" which in this instance works out to "A value of 6.12 million sq km [which] will be sent to ARCUS".

Here's the icing on the cake:
« Last Edit: June 11, 2014, 11:46:13 AM by Jim Hunt »
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LRC1962

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #135 on: June 11, 2014, 04:12:45 AM »
Not sure where to put put this or if you have seen it. Warnings 1 1/4 long and very depressing. Put together in part by Canada's own deniers favourite whipping boy Dr David Suzuki.
Arctic Death Spiral and the Methane Time Bomb
Did find some projections emphasized a bit to dramatic such as repeating Dr. David Waddell's prediction of 2015 as no ice in Arctic, but all in all I believe much closer to target them many other examples we could see.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
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Xyrus

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #136 on: June 11, 2014, 09:15:50 PM »
Thanks for your kind words folks.

I've just got back from a very interesting evening NOT watching "Thin Ice". The movie was never delivered! Instead I found myself chucking ideas around with the remnants of Occupy Exeter. Anyone know of a design for an electricity generating exercise bike?

It seems that after reading the runes the favoured number in WattsLand is 6.25 million km2, and all of a sudden the WUWT sea ice reference page is now dated June 10th!

P.S. It seems the Watts forecast involves "submit[ing] the weighted average value of the top 5 vote-getters" which in this instance works out to "A value of 6.12 million sq km [which] will be sent to ARCUS".

Here's the icing on the cake:

I'm surprised you still bother. Since just about every comment I've ever made over there got modded to oblivion, I just let Watts stew in his own stupidity along with the rest of the nutters over there. From a scientific literacy and honesty standpoint, WUWT is pretty much the king of ignorance and idiocy. You will never convince anyone over there of anything, even IF your comments make it through moderation.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #137 on: June 12, 2014, 12:36:27 AM »
I'm surprised you still bother.


I don't spend all day every day there. On this occasion I'd been writing about TolGate, since energy policy is of professional interest to me:

http://econnexus.org/tag/richard-tol/

I was intrigued to discover how WUWT would spin things, and then one thing led to another! Once the overt censorship kicks in I feel an irresistible urge to document the machinations for posterity. I don't labour under the misapprehension that any of the regulars will suddenly see the light, but sometimes I wonder how many lurkers and casual visitors pass by, and what they make of all the nonsense.

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

LRC1962

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #138 on: June 12, 2014, 01:45:19 AM »
I myself never comment, but on occasion I do visit. I think it more as a comedy club. Theme is How far can you turn science into a pretzel and still keep your target audience coming. So when I am feeling down about how bad things are and going to get, I visit there. They never stop amazing me at what they can say and not only that how many really believe it. Granted very sad in real life terms but for a laugh.... sorry but I really find them very funny.
Mind you I live in the neck of the world where there is a mayor that is the #1 comedy source for late night tv shows. Incredibly I think his brother who is a council member of the same city is not that much better.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #139 on: June 12, 2014, 02:36:16 PM »
Anthony Watts assures me via Twitter that "You have only your own self and commenting style to blame". Needless to say I beg to differ:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/06/forecasting-sea-ice-extent-in-the-dark/

I hope that at the very least all and sundry will find the "Gish Gallop in 72 seconds" video useful!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

LRC1962

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #140 on: June 12, 2014, 06:59:26 PM »
@ Jim just got caught up with things and saw you query about bicycles.
Starting point Bike powered electricity generators are not sustainable. Answer to it.http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2011/05/pedal-powered-farms-and-factories.html
The main problem with our approach to pedal powered machines is that we compare them to fossil fuel powered machines and not to the inefficient human powered tools and machines that went before them. This explains why pedal power is often laughed at in the western world but enthusiastically welcomed in the developing world, where, for instance, methods of agriculture still rely heavily on the use of human power using primitive tools which are usually inefficient. This is a scenario in which light is produced by dirty and inefficient kerosine lamps, or where there is no light at all.
Ironically, communities in the poorest countries in the world are developing into sustainable societies independent of fossil fuels, enjoying basic but modern comforts, while we continue to be ever more dependent on increasingly dirty, dangerous and diminishing energy sources.

In comment section
When discussing use of DC power to avoid losses due to added electronics needed, the article states ''there are no DC-laptops'' for example.
The opposite is true, there are no AC laptops. Invariably, there is a power brick/transformer which converts residential AC (220 or 110) into DC, between 14 and 18 VDC, depending on the laptop model. So one merely needs to now the output voltage of the power brick to determine how to feed a laptop.
In 1st article mentioned great lose due to cd-ac conversion. shows great lack of understanding almost everything we use can either be used with dc or ac, or has a transformer built in or atched at cord that converts  ac-dc. Another point 1st article kept bring up was batteries, almost all 3rd world uses it directly to power thing and it is up to human to govern power.  Too much 1st thinking.
For a little humor.http://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/driver-of-flintstonemobile-charged-gets-day-in-court.html
« Last Edit: June 12, 2014, 07:08:09 PM by LRC1962 »
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
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TerryM

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #141 on: June 12, 2014, 07:08:16 PM »

Mind you I live in the neck of the world where there is a mayor that is the #1 comedy source for late night tv shows. Incredibly I think his brother who is a council member of the same city is not that much better.


Hope you're taking the time to vote for a Wynner today[size=78%]
Terry[/size]

LRC1962

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #142 on: June 12, 2014, 07:15:42 PM »
@Terry: Live in Hamilton which is real left. Believe the 2 ladies can tango, the guy is so far right he still believes that if you give all the money in the world to the rich they will in turn help the poor. Too bad he sees history with poor eye sight. That belongs only to the very small minority. More common is a conversation I overheard All the cutbacks we have made have been good... more money in my pocket.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

LRC1962

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #143 on: June 12, 2014, 07:17:02 PM »
Sorry of OT politics. Election day where I live.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #144 on: June 12, 2014, 07:37:59 PM »
@ Jim just got caught up with things and saw you query about bicycles.

Many thanks LRC. Some comprehensive reference material, which I have now passed on.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #145 on: June 12, 2014, 10:28:35 PM »
I'm not going to get into a slanging match with WUWT, I've made clear my low opinion of them elsewhere repeatedly, but this year on this matter as I am entering the SIPN with my own forecast I don't think it would be proper behaviour.

However I will make an observation.

Taking the NSIDC Extent losses from 11 June daily extent to the September average extent for each year from 1979 to 2013, and applying these losses to the current 2014 extent gives the following results.

Out of 35 years 13 produce a result equal to or above 6.12. I consider it appropriate that in the absence of stated bounds I apply the test '>=' because of the high sided distribution of votes in their pole.

However this does not constitute an almost 1/2 probability of success because summer losses are increasing.

Losses from 11 June to min have been increasing, indeed there are only two successes in the period 1998 to 2013, (2001 & 2006). While the average minimum extent using this method for 1980 to 1999 is 5.35M km^2, by 2007 to 2013 the average hindcast minimum extent is only 4.85M km^2. Losses from 11 June to September average extent having increased from an average of 5.35M km^2 for 1980 to 1999, to an average of 6.73M km^2 for the period 2007 to 2012, a 1/4 increase. Even the recent 'muted melt' of 2013 is clearly in the post 2007 camp at loss of 6.46 between 11 June and the September average extent.

As I have made an entry to the SIPN for June I should examine my own prediction. Taking the 2007 to 2013 losses and applying those to the 11 June 2014 Extent and the range of the 7 predictions is 4.22M to 5.46M km^2. My prediction for the SIPN, based solely on May PIOMAS data and no considerations of ice state in June, has a range of 3.48M to 4.62M km^2, an overlap of 0.4M km^2 or 35% of my range. With the failure of large extent loss so far my numbers for 2014 based on 2007 to 2012 volume (all hindcasts within bounds) are looking too low, but extent isn't like volume, it can drop fast when conditions are right - volume is limited by insolation.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2014, 09:45:54 PM by ChrisReynolds »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #146 on: June 23, 2014, 04:20:29 PM »
Steve Goddard reckons that the currently sluggish DMI central Arctic temperatures are an "Alarmists’ Worst Nightmare". As usual, I beg to differ:

"The Pseudo Skeptics’ Worst Nightmare?"



Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

jdallen

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #147 on: June 23, 2014, 06:02:27 PM »
Steve Goddard reckons that the currently sluggish DMI central Arctic temperatures are an "Alarmists’ Worst Nightmare". As usual, I beg to differ:

"The Pseudo Skeptics’ Worst Nightmare?"

<head shake>

They really don't get us, do they?

I take pleasure in the scholarship we share.

I am gratified intellectually when my understanding is affirmed.

I am terrified of the conclusions my understanding leads me to.

I would accept failure with profound relief.

The only nightmare is the fact We are probably right.
This space for Rent.

LRC1962

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #148 on: June 24, 2014, 12:01:33 AM »
@jdallen: I second that.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

Jim Hunt

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Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« Reply #149 on: June 24, 2014, 01:29:06 PM »
I would accept failure with profound relief.

The only nightmare is the fact We are probably right.

Thirded
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein