http://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/la-cop21-a-40-ans-de-retard-denonce-mika-mered-specialiste-de-l-arctique.N363749#xtor=RSS-300A French article translated here with google and me :
A photo with some polar bears who see their ice melt... It's a powerful image that symbolizes global warming. Yet early December in Paris at the COP21, the climate conference, the topic of the Arctic will not be mentioned. Mika Mered advocates that Poles are not forgotten in these negotiations. Specialist of the polar regions since 2008 in Polarisk, he took the head of the institute of geostrategic Council three years ago. In parallel, he also founded the French Polar Cluster. This association, gathering the French players operating in the Arctic, the Arctic will organize meetings to raise awareness of the problems of the region.
L'Usine Nouvelle: The National Center for Atmospheric Research is an expert in climate prediction. Do you believe, as he announced in September that the Arctic Ocean will melt completely during the summer in 2100?
Mika Mered: According to various estimates made by climatologists, the US Navy says 2035, NASA has several scenarios ranging from 2030 to 2075. It is even before 2100. So it's something clear , clear and precise, the total melting of the Arctic Ocean arrives.
And the fact of limiting global warming to 2 ° C, which is the main objective of the COP21, will not change anything?
The Arctic is melting and it will melt the COP21 there or not. Whatever the agreement of the COP21 is, it will continue to melt.
Yet the subject of the Arctic will not be discussed during the COP21.
There are 74% of the earth's surface which will not be discussed during the COP21. You have half days or thematic days on peoples and forests. But there are two issues that are not scheduled : polar regions and oceans. This may seem completely absurd but the oceans and the poles will not be discussed at COP21.
How do you explain it?
The Arctic, Antarctic and oceans can be "deal breakers" agreements. That is to say that you can have an early agreement, but when we arrive on the oceans or the poles, there is a blockage.
"The word must be given to Greenland"
What a subject directly threatened by global warming could prevent a deal?
If you enter negotiations on oceans at the COP21, you will therefore initiate a review of the Montego Bay Convention of 1982, which governs the international law of the sea. The agreement was reached after long and difficult negotiations . It would be an tremendous cacophony. Similarly for the Antarctic Treaty and the Madrid Protocol, which is supposed to guarantee the proper use of science and the environment of Antarctica.
There is the Montego Bay agreement for the sea, the Madrid Protocol for the Antarctic, but no treaty on the Arctic. Why is it therefore not included in the negotiations?
The Arctic is inhabited, the Arctic is shared, the Arctic has an existing legal structure and the Arctic coastal states have exclusive economic zone. Based on this principle, it would not be to the advantage of France, with a view to reaching agreement at COP21, to bring this matter specifically in negotiations.
Yet the Arctic meetings "Arctic Encounter" that you organize, will address specifically the Arctic.
That's right, however, Arctic Encounter Paris 2015 aims to be a forum for discussion and not a beginning process towards commitments. On December 11, just after the close of COP21, experts will pick up on what has been done, or not, at the conference to see how the Arctic has been taken into account and analyze the impacts on the area.
The next day, you will give a voice to local actors, why?
The Prime minister of Nunavut, the Inuit province of Canada, will open the day on the 12th December, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Economy and Greenland's Mineral Resources will conclude. These people must have a space for talking. They are impacted before us. This should be the logic, it is not this one that will prevail at the COP21.
"The possibility of a reverse gear is gone"
You think the COP21 is a sword in the water?
Paul-Emile Victor, the famous French explorer, said already in the 70s it does ideally require a global ecological awareness. But 40 years ago, you could still do something. That is to say, if at that time there had been the COP21 and therefore, a concrete agreement. The Arctic would not have melted and we would not be talking about it.
It is too late to act?
People born after the 80s are possibly the most committed and aware of the issues. Alas, they have no more influence on near future climate. The new generation of political leader who will emerge, who are now between 15 and 30 years old, will have to manage global warming. The possibility of backtracking is over.
Interview by Pierre Monnier