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Author Topic: Empire - America and the future  (Read 116417 times)

SteveMDFP

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #650 on: February 23, 2017, 12:57:27 AM »
ALSR

A bit of a tweek here.  Just in fun, but with a serious side. 

Since I know how partial you are to AI and its possible positive side.  Here, however, is a real world actual existing early version of another use for AI and it certainly is hard from certain perspectives to think of it as positive.  IN fact it may have been the deciding factor in electing Trump.

Tell me what you think of this.

https://scout.ai/story/the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

That's one of the most disturbing articles I've ever read.  I had noticed in the few days before the US election a big increase in anti-Hillary material online.  This article explains that.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #651 on: February 23, 2017, 01:19:58 AM »
That's one of the most disturbing articles I've ever read.  I had noticed in the few days before the US election a big increase in anti-Hillary material online.  This article explains that.


The truth of the matter is that politics is largely about the manipulation of uncertainty to get what one side wants; which has been going on for a long time.  So as not to dive into ancient history, the linked 2014 article is entitled: "Karl Rove vs. Hillary Clinton: Whisper campaign explodes on Internet", and provides an example of how during the 3rd Industrial Revolution, the internet allowed Karl Rove to effectively manipulate the truth before his target could react.  While the Cambridge Analytica work accelerates this trend by adding 4th Industrial Revolution - AI to Karl Rove's more traditional 'whisper campaigns' (he originally compiled lists of conservative groups and identified the key influencers in the groups to which he fed fake information to just before a key vote, so that the fake information would spread rapidly by whispers within the group before the target could respond).   Rather than expressing 'moral outrage' it is better to use information science to attack the uncertainty associated by fake information in order to mount a rapid response.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-pn-analysis-karl-rove-hillary-clinton-whisper-campaign-internet-20140513-story.html

Extract: "Judged strictly as strategy, and not, say, for its morality, Karl Rove’s blast at Hillary Clinton on Tuesday demonstrated how the game of political trickery manifests itself in the Internet age. Allegation reported, allegation denied, outrage from the victimized party, all bouncing across the Web, the initial accusation repeated each and every time -- a whisper campaign given full baying voice.

The Republican strategist's questioning of Clinton’s health was a joint assault on the minds of voters and the heart of the would-be White House contender, and it probably worked, at least minimally, by injecting into the conversation something no one had been talking about, and spreading a negative assertion without any proof."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #652 on: February 23, 2017, 07:22:06 PM »
My general impression is that after circa 2045 we will see two significantly different tracks for post-collapse society: (1) one dominated by a cyborg approach and (2) one dominated by a species being type of approach.

When I have more time, I will write more.

Best,
ASLR


Just a quick note to expand on my two points cited in the quote above:

(1) The road to the cyborg approach is fairly obvious, when AI can not only be used to manipulate elections but also: (a) the stock market as demonstrated by Robert Mercer's (Renaissance Technologies') Medallion Fund; (b) support cyber-warfare as demonstrated by all major and minor powers in the world; (c) governance as is currently being demonstrated by the alt-right's attack on mainstream media via fake news and alternate facts and (d) Groups like Anonymous can hack private entities like: Microsoft, Facebook, Google and OpenAI to develop coding better than that used by Cambridge Analytica; in order to advance their own agendas.

In this regards, see the linked articles with the first entitled: "What Does the Billionaire Family Backing Donald Trump Really Want?"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/no-one-knows-what-the-powerful-mercers-really-want/514529/


The second linked article is entitled: "Renaissance Partner Airs Battle With Mercer Over Trump

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/renaissance-partner-airs-battle-with-mercer-over-trump-wsj-says

Extract: "A Renaissance Technologies partner went public with his strong objections to top executive Robert Mercer’s support for President Donald Trump, telling the Wall Street Journal of a heated confrontation between the two men that may lead to his firing.

David Magerman has worked at the quantitative hedge fund for 20 years and helped design the firm’s trading systems. A registered Democrat, Magerman, 48, told the paper that Mercer’s “views show contempt for the social safety net that he doesn’t need, but many Americans do.”"

(2) The road to the species being approach could use a combination of mindfulness and electronic monitoring equipment to link the human mind to the holographic universe.  This might be achieved via the phosphorus pathway discussed in the following linked article is entitled: “The strange link between the human mind and quantum physics”.  In a few decades, who knows how much progress will be made into this matter.

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170215-the-strange-link-between-the-human-mind-and-quantum-physics

Extract: “The perennial puzzle of consciousness has even led some researchers to invoke quantum physics to explain it. That notion has always been met with skepticism, which is not surprising: it does not sound wise to explain one mystery with another. But such ideas are not obviously absurd, and neither are they arbitrary.

For one thing, the mind seemed, to the great discomfort of physicists, to force its way into early quantum theory. What's more, quantum computers are predicted to be capable of accomplishing things ordinary computers cannot, which reminds us of how our brains can achieve things that are still beyond artificial intelligence. "Quantum consciousness" is widely derided as mystical woo, but it just will not go away.

In a study published in 2015, physicist Matthew Fisher of the University of California at Santa Barbara argued that the brain might contain molecules capable of sustaining more robust quantum superpositions. Specifically, he thinks that the nuclei of phosphorus atoms may have this ability.

In 2016, Adrian Kent of the University of Cambridge in the UK, one of the most respected "quantum philosophers", speculated that consciousness might alter the behaviour of quantum systems in subtle but detectable ways.“
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #653 on: February 26, 2017, 02:39:37 AM »
This post is a follow-on to my last post Reply #652:

The thing that upsets me the most about denalists (including both climate change denalists & Team Trump) is their preference for presenting reasonable logic, that I myself would use, and then at the very end present an answer that is the exact opposite of what I would conclude.  They then disseminate their 'findings' as fast & as widely as possible, in order to catch as many of the unprepared as possible in their nets of deceit.

For this post, I focus on Steve Bannon's use of Nassim Taleb's antifragility concept in his alt-right populist strategy of removing restraints on both Wall Street and the fossil fuel industry as part of an attempt to tear down the managerialist establishment that is suppose to be increasing the fragility of our global socio-economic system.

While decreasing the fragility of our global socio-economic system sound admirable, the way that alt-right populist are going about it by increasing fear, casino capitalism and kleptocratic opportunities is the opposite of what is needed.

Systems that are anti-fragile has a deep culture of experimentation without creating fear that can stifle innovation.  Clinging desperately to the past like Team Trump is doing by trying to turn back the clock to time when Detroit (motortown) and the oil and gas industries (i.e. heavy industries) were dominate in the US culture is only going to increase the fragility of the US socio-economic system.

True anti-fragility can be found in places like Silicon Valley (with its 'disruptive' technologies), which are places that deeply distrust Team Trump.  Merely thinking that you don't like AI and the 4th Industrial Revolution does not mean that they are not going to happen, and indeed thrive in the current and coming periods of chaotic transition.  Thus I recommend studying information science (see the “Systemic Isolation” and the “Adapting the the Anthropocene” threads) before companies like Cambridge Analytica (that is working with Team Trump) not only uses AI (including quantum computing) to deceptively flip elections but also the stock market thus converting crony capitalism into kleptocratic capitalism.

Carlota Perez has shown, advances in new technologies…whether it’s the railways, electricity…are marked by a chaotic transitional phase of wars, financial scandals, industrial mayhem and deep anxieties about the collapse of civilization; and due to the 4th Industrial Revolution we are going through one of those transitions today.

Protectionists, like Team Trump, believe in a system based on financial leverage (i.e. casino capitalism), heft, industries working in silos, banks directing the flow of capital and holding the balance of power (just look at Trump's cabinet appointments).  In such a period of chaotic transition Elon Musk is supporting OpenAI (which is open to everyone) and Facebook is writing to flag bad behavior like 'alternate facts'; in order to fight against companies like Cambridge Analytica that use deceptive AI to take advantage of 'others'.

I am not recommending the cyborg-approach (& prefer the species being approach), I do recommend facing the future with your eyes open instead of with Pollyannaish naivety.

Edit: A significant component of what I am saying here is that in times of change, 'natural selection' leads to systemic cooperation while 'survival of the fittest' leads to systemic isolation (alt-right).

See also:

http://www.thomaslfriedman.com/thank-you-for-being-late/
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 04:48:23 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #654 on: February 27, 2017, 02:05:41 AM »
The linked article is entitled: “What if AI Could Lie?”  AI mimics humans and as we now live in a world dominated by alt-right fake news, we should need to watch out for deceptive humans, deceptive machines and soon cyborgs:

https://disruptionhub.com/what-if-ai-could-lie/

Extract: “Artificial Intelligence is constantly fed information from countless channels. If AI can understand deception, then all of these channels would be disrupted. In some ways, this is good news. In order to achieve optimal function, AI needs to handle missing or hidden data. It’s also useful for it to understand lying – for example, AI can pick up on fake news using an algorithm that mimics traditional journalism techniques. As of this month, it’s even used on U.S. borders as an unbiased lie detector. On the other hand, adding the ability to hide or twist data to super-intelligent systems is a recipe for disaster. AI systems have already worked out how to lie to each other, which creates competition rather than collaboration. Imagine what would happen if AI-enabled robots decided to keep information to themselves – in other words, refusing to co-operate with humans? The relationship between humans and technology would be fundamentally altered. Either way, if Artificial Intelligence can learn to be dishonest, it can be programmed to lie for malicious ends. Cyber criminals could hack into machine learning systems and play havoc with vital info, using rogue AI as blackmail or to steal data. It’s even been argued that AI is deceptive by nature because it mimics and imitates.

It’s clear that AI research isn’t going to stop just because Artificial Intelligence could be dangerous. That means that the only thing developers and investors can do is work together to find ways to contain or prevent deceptive AI. This is supposedly what Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, IBM and now Apple are doing with their partnership on AI. . . but if it was difficult to trust AI before, it definitely will be now that machine learning systems can bluff as well as, and better than, humans. Ultimately, if data-saturated AI can lie to us about our own information (and share it within neural networks that we can’t access) then we have a serious problem.”
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

sidd

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #655 on: May 10, 2017, 08:42:09 AM »
Failing wealth pump, so sad. But faraway brown people, not so bad

https://theintercept.com/2017/05/09/puerto-ricos-123-billion-bankruptcy-is-the-cost-of-u-s-colonialism/

sidd

johnm33

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TerryM

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #657 on: May 10, 2017, 01:50:52 PM »
The Empire goes for broke http://thesaker.is/the-us-bill-h-r-1644-to-kill-russian-food-export-and-chinese-trade/

I had no idea so many of us read the Saker.


If H.R.1644 Passes the Senate, then Trumpster's signature will be all that's needed to make the world subject to America's laws - always assuming that the world accepts being included into the American Empire.


Terry

TerryM

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #658 on: May 10, 2017, 01:53:23 PM »
Failing wealth pump, so sad. But faraway brown people, not so bad

https://theintercept.com/2017/05/09/puerto-ricos-123-billion-bankruptcy-is-the-cost-of-u-s-colonialism/

sidd


It's not whether America has an Empire, it's why it manages it's Empire so poorly.
Terry

sidd

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sidd

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #660 on: May 28, 2017, 02:38:33 AM »
Another good article by Bacevich about two of the people who sold the Cold War. And their acolytes Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, Zalmay Khalilzad.

https://www.firstthings.com/article/2017/06/mr-and-mrs-fearmonger

sidd

TerryM

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #661 on: May 28, 2017, 10:18:00 PM »
Another good article by Bacevich about two of the people who sold the Cold War. And their acolytes Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, Zalmay Khalilzad.

https://www.firstthings.com/article/2017/06/mr-and-mrs-fearmonger

sidd
sidd
I'm afraid that Bacevich himself has become a victim of the very fears that the Wohlstetters promoted. ISIS is represented as a bastard son of Al-Qaeda, not as a CIA proxy along side Al-Qaeda, the product of Brzezinski's manipulations of Afghan clerics and CIA trained and armed warlords.
Putin, he avows will never be a "friend of the West", but this is only true if we continue to demonize him in every way. Putin revived the French ship building industry, only to have his paid for ships remain undelivered. France paid heavily for this in non-completion fines as well as the loss of military sales that had been agreed on - but they did gain America's undying appreciation.


ISIS and Russia are not the monsters in the Castle of the West, but the supposed master, lurking in the shadows behind an organ playing the dirge that so many are forced to dance to, may be suspect. Follow the trail of gore.


Terry

sidd

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #662 on: Today at 01:42:04 AM »
Are we reading the same article?

1) In the only mention of ISIS:

"ISIS quite definitely is an enemy of the West and must be destroyed. But its destruction will do little to address the factors that led to the rise of it, al-Qaeda, and other extremist groups in the first place. "

Where do you see Bacevich mention lineage from Al Quaeda to ISIS ? I happen to think the two are quite distinct, but that is another discussion.

2) Putin is mentioned three times

a) The first sentence is

"So too does the threat inflation that, for example, finds various commentators depicting the Islamic State or Vladimir Putin’s Russia as existential dangers. "

I read that as stating that Putin's Russia is an inflated threat, not an existential danger.

b) The second is:

"Putin is not a “friend” of the West and never will be."

Here i agree with you there is a problem with Bacevich's formulation. To begin with, a more careful definition of of "The West" would be nice.

c) The last mention is:

"Yet the onward expansion of NATO has been a needless provocation that plays directly into his hands, reviving among Russians nationalist sentiments that Putin exploits."

I see no problem with that statement.

sidd

sidd

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Re: Empire - America and the future
« Reply #663 on: Today at 07:07:17 AM »
Engdahl points to tilt to the East by some of Europe:

http://journal-neo.org/2017/05/27/eastern-europe-tilts-to-obor-and-eurasia/

sidd